Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
The 1st part of this we talked about the early rounds. I want to stress that while I spoke very candidly about my feelings on some of the selections especially at the end of the 1st round, the only real damage you can do in the 1st few rounds is simply drafting a player who gets injured which is difficult to predict, or you chase points from 2011 that will never come about in 2012 and again that is not always the easiest thing to see in the heat of the moment on draft day.
Where you can do a lot of damage IMO is whiffing consistently in the middle rounds. A lot of owners kick their feet back once they have Julio Jones, DeMarco Murray, Michael Vick, and Vernon Davis but not you. You realize that the draft is just beginning and now the real work starts. I think the middle rounds from about 6-7 thru 12 are critical. You take Donald Brown, the next guy takes Peyton Hills, one turns into top10, the other roster fodder but which one? Most of these players are going to be RBs 20-50, WRs 25-50, QBs 10-20, TEs 7-15. There will be some overlap especially at RB as I glossed over them a bit in the last thread. Blue is solid, Green is solid plus value
Rounds 4-6 at RB:
Frank Gore: He might not have needed many touches last night. He took the 1st handoff of the game and ran thru a huge hole to the left where the Guards were downfield blocking the LBs, he broke a light arm tackle and gained 10+ yards. He is going to be very effective and the more the Niners use a 2nd bad to lighten the load the better for Gore. 15-16 carries a game, not as many receptions in this offense but he can still make a solid choice. he has been going late 4th, might slide to 5th with the way Huntley performed in preseason game 2.
Reggie Bush: I am thinking he is limited to about 8-10 rushes a game, no goal line work, erratic receptions, sure he might grab 50 balls but perhaps 20-25 of them are in 3 games and he could throw up a lot of bad games if Miami is going to turn to Daniel Thomas as the goal line back. I'm starting to like Daniel Thomas late in the draft vs Bush in the 4th. I would caution folks who are running to draft this guy.
BJGE: I don't believe the Bengals have the run blocking upfront to make him a big FF force. Too early for my taste.
Willis McGahee: I love this guy as RB23 off the board. He is a perfect RB2 who will flex and have a few RB1 games along the way. He is sure to be on the field, offers the best pass protection for Manning and can pick up tough yards. Fox loves him, you should love him, he is a gem down here, and a steal in the 5th/6th round IMO.
Peyton Hillis: I have seen him going in the 6th or later. I like the upside, CHarles is not being hyped as a 3 down back, I see KC running the ball a lot, upgraded their OL, disagree 100% with the FBG OL analysis, Winston changes everything and I see a team that might have TWO 200+ carry guys. I think Hillis will see 12-15 carries a game depending on the score and if KC is ahead in the 3rd/4th but he will pound on teams. I see 800/10 TD from him, terrific RB2, strong RB3.
Shonn Greene: Who spells Green with an "e" at the end of it? And what kind of way to spell Shonn is Shonn? These are the questions I have when we mention his name, none of it has to do with his super play
I think you can detect the sarcasm and apprehension I have here.
Donald Brown: Amazing what ripping off a screen for 60 yds in the preseason will do for you. I am not sold, still feel this OL is turrible. other see a lot of points, I see a guy who was good at round 8-9, not liking in the 5th as much. Folks love him in here though so I'm not going to argue with folks over him. You want him draft him, you won't get sniped by me.
Kevin Smith: From not even drafted to the 5th/6th round, oh my. Maybe an increased workload week1 and 2, Smith also carries his medical chart even when he runs to the grocery store just in case. Folks are going way too high with this IMO. lot of risk involved, lot of risk.
Stock falling or rising and these guys could go anywhere between 5th/6th and the 8th/9th, just depends on the owner.
Isaac Redman: I was never a fan, feel even more unsecured that he has a groin injury, Mendy coming back, Dwyer stinks, this team needs to pony up for MJD and call it a day. I pass all day long on this guy. No thanks.
Steven Ridley: Fumbling, slightly injured, Vereen is gaining. This has got "Maalox Moment" written all over it, let others venture into this mess.
Beanie Wells: I've seen him fall to the 10th. I think he offers value because Ryan Williams is getting just a little too much hype right now. I'm not sure of his value but 1,000 yds and a few TDs last year makes me think he won't get shoved to the side as one as he is healthy. Wells has something like 525 carries over the last 3 seasons...Williams has how many regular season carries? I wouldn't assume Williams is getting 60% of the touches here. Wells is value if he falls into the 8th round or later.
Cedric Benson: Now going in the 7th and perhaps higher. Green Bay has a solid OL, just feel it is geared more to keeping Rodgers upright than it is blowing open running lanes. Benson has never had this much talent around him, he is an interesting pick but has some risk attached. If you waited and are taking him as a late RB2 or RB3, perhaps that's not the worst decision but his production is not guaranteed.
QBs in the middle rounds
Phillip Rivers: Always there in the 6th and now sometimes the 7th depending on scoring. I'm not a huge fan as the passing game seems worse not better. Down to Meachem and Floyd at WR, Floyd is always hurt. OL very questionable. He should probably be in the last group of QBs from the previous thread. He is in the QB 8-12 range and I don't see as much upside for him this year.
RG III: I'm not big on rookie QBs despite Cam Newton last year.
Jay Cutler: He has a lot more to throw to this season. OL will be better even if it is not great. Good solid 1-2 punch at RB now, he should have a fantastic season, sneaky top5 pick. He has upside.
Big Ben: I don't like the rotator cuff news. He doesn't usually make it into the top10, not a fantasy force.
Matt Schaub: I see him go higher than the 10th round which is what ADP Calculator is giving me. He is alright but you will need a 2nd Qb pretty soon. Also I don't see him entering the top10 this year. Other teams have a lot more weapons. He'll have both good and bad moments.
Andrew Luck: Rookie QB, would rather not.
Carson Palmer: Has looked terrible but combo with him might not be bad. His WRs are not healthy either, no TE to exploit, he's limited. And he throws interceptions.
Andy Dalton: I like him but he is far from a guy I want to start every week.
Josh Freeman: He is value in the sense that he can finish top15 as easily as most of the other guys around here an the goes last so I like that. We are talking rounds 10/11 here.
Joe Flacco: A lot of my friends like him but I don't. not buying him getting great protection on the outside. Not my 1st choice or 2nd choice. I see him as QB3 in a 10 team league.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: It seems Buffalo wants to ground and pound if they can. Fitz will have some moments but after he signed for some real money last year he fizzled. I wouldn't reach for him but he offers some upside in the 11th/12th.
The rest I will discuss in the late rounds thread later in the week. Some of you are feeling no love right now and picked 2 QBs I did not bold...I feel strongly trying to squeeze 20 out of a mix if middle of the road guys will leave you 10-20 points in the hole when you face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees...if they are in your FF division perhaps twice. Be careful if you wait on QBs, lot of them are average at best.
TE in the middle rounds: I like a lot of these guys and if you wait I would try and grab a couple in here.
Jason Witten: He is falling and I felt last season he was starting to come down form his 4-5 year run at an elite level. I don't feel Witten is still elite. I see him dodge a lot of punishment and maybe that's smart but he seems more worried about life after football. Sorry if that is harsh, forgive me but this is what I feel based on what I have seen. We don't know exactly when he will be back, if he will be 100%, I guess the 8th round is a good time to pull the trigger, maybe the 7th.
Fred Davis: Has been having a pretty meh camp. not real excited about him now.
Jacob Tamme: I think he is a solid pick with Manning under center in Denver. He won't be top5 but top 10-12 seems like a good possibility.
Brandon Pettigrew: Solid, will never be a top5 guy but can be a top10 in this offense. Who is going to cover him on defense with Megatron and Titus running wild?
Tony Gonzalez: Money any time after the 6th/7th round.
Jermaine Gresham: I like how his game is evolving, he could push for top12.
Jared Cook: I love the upside, lot of speed, will be up and down, a perfect TE2 that could be a sleeper for top10.
Coby Fleener: Rookie, pass
Kyle Rudolph: I like him but I think folks are getting perhaps too optimistic now. Seen him as high as the 7th/8th round which seems like a reach.
Brent Celek: Solid for round 10+.
Greg Olsen: Solid for round 10+...combine him with Celek and you probably have something at TE. Lot of mouths to feed in Carolina though.
Dustin Keller: Better options in the middle rounds.
I like plenty of guys at TE in the middle rounds. That said the drop off from Gronk/Graham to Celek/Olsen is huge, much more than you might think it is. After the top 4-6 though TEs are pretty equal and any week several of them can post top5-top10 numbers.
WRs in the middle rounds:
A few names that fluxing and you might want to look at if you waited at WR.
Reggie Wayne: Very underrated right now. Collie is the sexy pick but I like Wayne to earn the trust of Luck and be the guy he wants to throw the ball to. I'm not expecting miracles but 70-80 balls is not off the table here.
Pierre Garcon: Seems to have the WR1 spot in Washington and looks to have some chemistry brewing with RGIII. Dynasty not so much but in redraft he could have a top20 season.
Miles Austin: Hammy keeping him out to week 1 of the season. If he falls into the late 6th early 7th perhaps later, he offers some solid value IMO if he can get back healthy.
WRs Rounds 7, 8 and 9-I think I don't like the WRs as much in the early mid rounds, love others in the 2nd half of the middle rounds. I guess I am saying I like other positions in here including RB a lot more. Not a lot of value at WR IMO during these rounds.
Torrey Smith: I know folks love him, like him better in best ball formats. I am not high on the Ravens passing game right now.
Titus Young: Hype has moved him up into the 7th round. He scored the other night but I still feel he will have 3-4 BIG games and a lot of mediocre games as he racks up 800-900 yards and 6 TDs.
Kenny Britt: Pass
Robert Meachem: The opp is there, will he make good on it? Early returns in camp do not look promising.
Denarius Moore: Would like to see him healthy
Malcolm Floyd: I've seen his best, it's not that great.
DHB: Forgotten about in Oakland.
Anquan Boldin: Where is the upside here?
Austin Collie: Like Wayne a little better but I can understand why folks grab him as their WR4.
WRs in Rounds 10, 11, and 12-Some of them go a little higher but overall this is the area many of these guys go in PPR formats.
Justin Blackmon: Has looked good but just cannot imagine him racking up what you are truly looking for around here.
Randy Moss: I'm interested in the same way I was in Plaxico last year. 600-700 yds, maybe 6-8 TD in the red zone, maybe less rec yds.
Nate Washington: HELLO!!! TOP15 down in the middle of a bunch of half junk down here. Folks don't over think this. Britt is a hot mess, rookie will not start, Washingotn is going to be on the field a lot and 800-900 yds and 6-7 TD are well within his reach while the "New WRs" continue to learn the position. 41 off the board? I'm all in.
Santonio Holmes:
Lance Moore: Sizzle is better than the actual steak IMO.
Greg Little: Lot of work to do in Cleveland. Did I see FBG listing Cleveland as a top5 OL? Holy murgatroid. We'll see how much time Weeden has to throw.
Randall Cobb: I understand but a lot of mystery here with a lot of mouths to feed ahead of him.
Vincent Brown: OUT 8 WEEKS BROKEN ANKLE!!!
Mike Williams: Good price point int he 12th. Bucs have a better offense and he is join to be starting on the field. He is bound to grab 4 balls a week, maybe more. Seems like value down here and he won't see the top DB this year. Man on man most of the time, like his chances.
Kendall Wright: Rookie and 3rd Titan going inside of 10-11 rounds.
Brandon LaFell: Will catch 50-55 balls as the WR2, rack up 750+ yds and score 5-6 TD. I think he has a bigger ceiling but he is part of a high octane offense and while Murphy looked good the other night, he was never involved with the 1st team offense. At this point in camp, teams want their starters practicing together.
If you want to ask specific questions to your upcoming draft please understand this is done according to ADP Calculator site, could be off a little although it seems pretty sound right now, assume PPR across the board, but give us your thoughts on some guys and then we can offer feedback.
Who are you focused on in the middle rounds? Who are you leery of? Are you rethinking some of your strategy?
Where you can do a lot of damage IMO is whiffing consistently in the middle rounds. A lot of owners kick their feet back once they have Julio Jones, DeMarco Murray, Michael Vick, and Vernon Davis but not you. You realize that the draft is just beginning and now the real work starts. I think the middle rounds from about 6-7 thru 12 are critical. You take Donald Brown, the next guy takes Peyton Hills, one turns into top10, the other roster fodder but which one? Most of these players are going to be RBs 20-50, WRs 25-50, QBs 10-20, TEs 7-15. There will be some overlap especially at RB as I glossed over them a bit in the last thread. Blue is solid, Green is solid plus value
Rounds 4-6 at RB:
Frank Gore: He might not have needed many touches last night. He took the 1st handoff of the game and ran thru a huge hole to the left where the Guards were downfield blocking the LBs, he broke a light arm tackle and gained 10+ yards. He is going to be very effective and the more the Niners use a 2nd bad to lighten the load the better for Gore. 15-16 carries a game, not as many receptions in this offense but he can still make a solid choice. he has been going late 4th, might slide to 5th with the way Huntley performed in preseason game 2.
Reggie Bush: I am thinking he is limited to about 8-10 rushes a game, no goal line work, erratic receptions, sure he might grab 50 balls but perhaps 20-25 of them are in 3 games and he could throw up a lot of bad games if Miami is going to turn to Daniel Thomas as the goal line back. I'm starting to like Daniel Thomas late in the draft vs Bush in the 4th. I would caution folks who are running to draft this guy.
BJGE: I don't believe the Bengals have the run blocking upfront to make him a big FF force. Too early for my taste.
Willis McGahee: I love this guy as RB23 off the board. He is a perfect RB2 who will flex and have a few RB1 games along the way. He is sure to be on the field, offers the best pass protection for Manning and can pick up tough yards. Fox loves him, you should love him, he is a gem down here, and a steal in the 5th/6th round IMO.
Peyton Hillis: I have seen him going in the 6th or later. I like the upside, CHarles is not being hyped as a 3 down back, I see KC running the ball a lot, upgraded their OL, disagree 100% with the FBG OL analysis, Winston changes everything and I see a team that might have TWO 200+ carry guys. I think Hillis will see 12-15 carries a game depending on the score and if KC is ahead in the 3rd/4th but he will pound on teams. I see 800/10 TD from him, terrific RB2, strong RB3.
Shonn Greene: Who spells Green with an "e" at the end of it? And what kind of way to spell Shonn is Shonn? These are the questions I have when we mention his name, none of it has to do with his super play
I think you can detect the sarcasm and apprehension I have here.Donald Brown: Amazing what ripping off a screen for 60 yds in the preseason will do for you. I am not sold, still feel this OL is turrible. other see a lot of points, I see a guy who was good at round 8-9, not liking in the 5th as much. Folks love him in here though so I'm not going to argue with folks over him. You want him draft him, you won't get sniped by me.
Kevin Smith: From not even drafted to the 5th/6th round, oh my. Maybe an increased workload week1 and 2, Smith also carries his medical chart even when he runs to the grocery store just in case. Folks are going way too high with this IMO. lot of risk involved, lot of risk.
Stock falling or rising and these guys could go anywhere between 5th/6th and the 8th/9th, just depends on the owner.
Isaac Redman: I was never a fan, feel even more unsecured that he has a groin injury, Mendy coming back, Dwyer stinks, this team needs to pony up for MJD and call it a day. I pass all day long on this guy. No thanks.
Steven Ridley: Fumbling, slightly injured, Vereen is gaining. This has got "Maalox Moment" written all over it, let others venture into this mess.
Beanie Wells: I've seen him fall to the 10th. I think he offers value because Ryan Williams is getting just a little too much hype right now. I'm not sure of his value but 1,000 yds and a few TDs last year makes me think he won't get shoved to the side as one as he is healthy. Wells has something like 525 carries over the last 3 seasons...Williams has how many regular season carries? I wouldn't assume Williams is getting 60% of the touches here. Wells is value if he falls into the 8th round or later.
Cedric Benson: Now going in the 7th and perhaps higher. Green Bay has a solid OL, just feel it is geared more to keeping Rodgers upright than it is blowing open running lanes. Benson has never had this much talent around him, he is an interesting pick but has some risk attached. If you waited and are taking him as a late RB2 or RB3, perhaps that's not the worst decision but his production is not guaranteed.
QBs in the middle rounds
Phillip Rivers: Always there in the 6th and now sometimes the 7th depending on scoring. I'm not a huge fan as the passing game seems worse not better. Down to Meachem and Floyd at WR, Floyd is always hurt. OL very questionable. He should probably be in the last group of QBs from the previous thread. He is in the QB 8-12 range and I don't see as much upside for him this year.
RG III: I'm not big on rookie QBs despite Cam Newton last year.
Jay Cutler: He has a lot more to throw to this season. OL will be better even if it is not great. Good solid 1-2 punch at RB now, he should have a fantastic season, sneaky top5 pick. He has upside.
Big Ben: I don't like the rotator cuff news. He doesn't usually make it into the top10, not a fantasy force.
Matt Schaub: I see him go higher than the 10th round which is what ADP Calculator is giving me. He is alright but you will need a 2nd Qb pretty soon. Also I don't see him entering the top10 this year. Other teams have a lot more weapons. He'll have both good and bad moments.
Andrew Luck: Rookie QB, would rather not.
Carson Palmer: Has looked terrible but combo with him might not be bad. His WRs are not healthy either, no TE to exploit, he's limited. And he throws interceptions.
Andy Dalton: I like him but he is far from a guy I want to start every week.
Josh Freeman: He is value in the sense that he can finish top15 as easily as most of the other guys around here an the goes last so I like that. We are talking rounds 10/11 here.
Joe Flacco: A lot of my friends like him but I don't. not buying him getting great protection on the outside. Not my 1st choice or 2nd choice. I see him as QB3 in a 10 team league.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: It seems Buffalo wants to ground and pound if they can. Fitz will have some moments but after he signed for some real money last year he fizzled. I wouldn't reach for him but he offers some upside in the 11th/12th.
The rest I will discuss in the late rounds thread later in the week. Some of you are feeling no love right now and picked 2 QBs I did not bold...I feel strongly trying to squeeze 20 out of a mix if middle of the road guys will leave you 10-20 points in the hole when you face Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees...if they are in your FF division perhaps twice. Be careful if you wait on QBs, lot of them are average at best.
TE in the middle rounds: I like a lot of these guys and if you wait I would try and grab a couple in here.
Jason Witten: He is falling and I felt last season he was starting to come down form his 4-5 year run at an elite level. I don't feel Witten is still elite. I see him dodge a lot of punishment and maybe that's smart but he seems more worried about life after football. Sorry if that is harsh, forgive me but this is what I feel based on what I have seen. We don't know exactly when he will be back, if he will be 100%, I guess the 8th round is a good time to pull the trigger, maybe the 7th.
Fred Davis: Has been having a pretty meh camp. not real excited about him now.
Jacob Tamme: I think he is a solid pick with Manning under center in Denver. He won't be top5 but top 10-12 seems like a good possibility.
Brandon Pettigrew: Solid, will never be a top5 guy but can be a top10 in this offense. Who is going to cover him on defense with Megatron and Titus running wild?
Tony Gonzalez: Money any time after the 6th/7th round.
Jermaine Gresham: I like how his game is evolving, he could push for top12.
Jared Cook: I love the upside, lot of speed, will be up and down, a perfect TE2 that could be a sleeper for top10.
Coby Fleener: Rookie, pass
Kyle Rudolph: I like him but I think folks are getting perhaps too optimistic now. Seen him as high as the 7th/8th round which seems like a reach.
Brent Celek: Solid for round 10+.
Greg Olsen: Solid for round 10+...combine him with Celek and you probably have something at TE. Lot of mouths to feed in Carolina though.
Dustin Keller: Better options in the middle rounds.
I like plenty of guys at TE in the middle rounds. That said the drop off from Gronk/Graham to Celek/Olsen is huge, much more than you might think it is. After the top 4-6 though TEs are pretty equal and any week several of them can post top5-top10 numbers.
WRs in the middle rounds:
A few names that fluxing and you might want to look at if you waited at WR.
Reggie Wayne: Very underrated right now. Collie is the sexy pick but I like Wayne to earn the trust of Luck and be the guy he wants to throw the ball to. I'm not expecting miracles but 70-80 balls is not off the table here.
Pierre Garcon: Seems to have the WR1 spot in Washington and looks to have some chemistry brewing with RGIII. Dynasty not so much but in redraft he could have a top20 season.
Miles Austin: Hammy keeping him out to week 1 of the season. If he falls into the late 6th early 7th perhaps later, he offers some solid value IMO if he can get back healthy.
WRs Rounds 7, 8 and 9-I think I don't like the WRs as much in the early mid rounds, love others in the 2nd half of the middle rounds. I guess I am saying I like other positions in here including RB a lot more. Not a lot of value at WR IMO during these rounds.
Torrey Smith: I know folks love him, like him better in best ball formats. I am not high on the Ravens passing game right now.
Titus Young: Hype has moved him up into the 7th round. He scored the other night but I still feel he will have 3-4 BIG games and a lot of mediocre games as he racks up 800-900 yards and 6 TDs.
Kenny Britt: Pass
Robert Meachem: The opp is there, will he make good on it? Early returns in camp do not look promising.
Denarius Moore: Would like to see him healthy
Malcolm Floyd: I've seen his best, it's not that great.
DHB: Forgotten about in Oakland.
Anquan Boldin: Where is the upside here?
Austin Collie: Like Wayne a little better but I can understand why folks grab him as their WR4.
WRs in Rounds 10, 11, and 12-Some of them go a little higher but overall this is the area many of these guys go in PPR formats.
Justin Blackmon: Has looked good but just cannot imagine him racking up what you are truly looking for around here.
Randy Moss: I'm interested in the same way I was in Plaxico last year. 600-700 yds, maybe 6-8 TD in the red zone, maybe less rec yds.
Nate Washington: HELLO!!! TOP15 down in the middle of a bunch of half junk down here. Folks don't over think this. Britt is a hot mess, rookie will not start, Washingotn is going to be on the field a lot and 800-900 yds and 6-7 TD are well within his reach while the "New WRs" continue to learn the position. 41 off the board? I'm all in.
Santonio Holmes:
Lance Moore: Sizzle is better than the actual steak IMO.
Greg Little: Lot of work to do in Cleveland. Did I see FBG listing Cleveland as a top5 OL? Holy murgatroid. We'll see how much time Weeden has to throw.
Randall Cobb: I understand but a lot of mystery here with a lot of mouths to feed ahead of him.
Vincent Brown: OUT 8 WEEKS BROKEN ANKLE!!!
Mike Williams: Good price point int he 12th. Bucs have a better offense and he is join to be starting on the field. He is bound to grab 4 balls a week, maybe more. Seems like value down here and he won't see the top DB this year. Man on man most of the time, like his chances.
Kendall Wright: Rookie and 3rd Titan going inside of 10-11 rounds.
Brandon LaFell: Will catch 50-55 balls as the WR2, rack up 750+ yds and score 5-6 TD. I think he has a bigger ceiling but he is part of a high octane offense and while Murphy looked good the other night, he was never involved with the 1st team offense. At this point in camp, teams want their starters practicing together.
If you want to ask specific questions to your upcoming draft please understand this is done according to ADP Calculator site, could be off a little although it seems pretty sound right now, assume PPR across the board, but give us your thoughts on some guys and then we can offer feedback.
Who are you focused on in the middle rounds? Who are you leery of? Are you rethinking some of your strategy?
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