Worst 2020 draft mistake / Biggest lesson learned from 2020 (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I always try to look back to the ghost of seasons past to divine any meaningful lessons I can. 

Usually I'll notice (at least) 1 mistake that I missed during the draft, and write it down on my draft sheet as a "don't do that again, dummy!" self-reflection. 

I know it seems silly,  but as a 20-year project manager, doing a post-mortem on past work product can often help to avoid making the same mistakes. 

So let's keep it simple for this discussion with 2 questions, limited to 1 response for each. This is a judgement-free zone.  Help your fellow sharks avoid the mistakes you made & glean from the lessons you learned from last year. It's never too late to improve your game. 

1. What is your biggest draft mistake from 2020? 

2. What is your biggest lesson learned from 2020? 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Someone has to go first. 

1. What is your biggest draft mistake from 2020? 

I had consistently mocked to take Aaron Jones at the end of the 2nd. I picked 1.03, and I thought he was excellent value there. In my rankings I had Miles Sanders 1 spot higher at RB, and a few spots higher overall, but he'd been going between 2.02-2.06 in both real & mocks I'd seen, consistent with his ADP.  

2.09 came and they were both there. And despite wanting to take AJones, I didn't want to pass up the "value pick". Plus all the reporting as of my draft day said his injury was mild & he wasn't expected to miss any regular season games. Meanwhile AJ Dillon was getting a lot of camp buzz (just like he is this preseason) with talk of an expanded role at Jones' expense. 

As y'all know, the rest was history. Aaron Jones was a stud & Sanders was mostly a roster clogger. 

2. What is your biggest lesson learned from 2020? 

Related to 1, trust my gut & stick to my plan. Even if I have a player projected for a higher ceiling, even if I read some random doom scenario for a player I'm targeting in an early round, stick to the plan. There are exceptions of course. Part B of this lesson is don't draft players who are already hurt. There's enough injury risk in this stupid game already, why tempt fate by drafting anyone who couldn't make it through camp without getting gimpy?  Avoid the red cross*. 

*unless it's a guy like Barkley, and only if he's cleared for a big role before game 1. 

 

[foxco]

1. What is your biggest draft mistake from 2020? 

Waited far too long to take a TE and was stuck streaming with guys like Jonnu and always seemed to pick the wrong one on a weekly basis. IMO there's 1 position with extremely limited sure-fire studs and it's TE. In my redrafts I plan on getting 1 within 3 rounds

2. What is your biggest lesson learned from 2020? 

Not as much from a specific draft, but from an overall perspective I put too many eggs in one basket, drafting M Thomas, Barkley etc. in multiple leagues, then when they went down it hurt me across the board. This season I'll try to diversify during drafts so if I have two players fairly even and already have one of them on another team, I'll grab the guy I don't have...

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

1. What is your biggest draft mistake from 2020? 

Waited far too long to take a TE

I was a coin flip away from making this mine. 

Every mock I do I've now played with "how to get a top 6 TE" because after that they fall off of a cliff. 

That said, you could end up with a Higbee/Irv Smith tandem, and probably be ok. But you're still likely going to have a disadvantage against half of your league.  And if you miss on those guys, too it could be a very long season. 

This is a great one. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I cannot stress enough how dangerous it is to just slide into the 2020 stats and I'll explain...

-A Veteran WR with at least 2-3 solid predictable years under their belts, OK fine draft them at will BUT if you take one of these WRs that did it for 1 whole year or had a decent rookie season and you just slide them in as your WR2, you're going to have major problems. 

-You must stop using the stats from the season prior and just upping or downing the player by 5-10% either way whichever suits your needs. MISTAKE MISTAKE MISTAKE!!!

Those stats you all cling to from the season prior are the easiest and most sure way to screw yourself going into the Draft IMHO but I'm pleased most owners simply follow that way of thinking. 

 

[-jb-]

I cannot stress enough how dangerous it is to just slide into the 2020 stats and I'll explain...

-A Veteran WR with at least 2-3 solid predictable years under their belts, fins draft them at will BUT if you take one of these WRs that did it for 1 whole year or had a decent rookie season and you just slide them in as your WR2, you're going to have major problems. 

-You must stop using the stats from the season prior and just upping or downing the player by 5-10% either way whichever suits your needs. MISTAKE MISTAKE MISTAKE!!!

Those stats you all cling to from the season prior are the easiest and most sure way to screw yourself going into the Draft IMHO but I'm pleased most owners simply follow that way of thinking. 

Was this a lesson learned or…?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Was this a lesson learned or…?

Good question -jb-

-For me this has been an ongoing theme for a long time and one of the reasons I typically shy away from website projections because it's done to sell a product most of the time. FBG though typically has several people giving input into their projections so if they mess it up, usually it's a group effort and not many folks saw it coming. 

-I go about it a little different. For most WRs, I start with QB-OL Pass Protections, surrounding skill players, OC/HC Offense or system, Targets and also when and where they occur during the course of the football game, some guys don't see the ball much until their team is down 10-14 points, Team Defense to get them into scoring position faster thru turnovers or cheap points as we like to call them. I didn't mention Touchdowns, Yds or Yards per reception because I feel like those are fool's gold and I'll sum that up in the next thought. 

-Most owners take the 1200 yds and 10 TD projection and say to themselves "I see him more like 1100/8 and make a few adjustments down or vice versa and I see that as a mistake. You don't win or lose your league rounding WRs from 1200/10 to 1,050/8 or going from 900/6 to like 1,000/7, you need to locate WIDE GAPS in projection vs what the actuals are going to say in 2021. 

Does that help at all?

 

[BigJim®]

1. Biggest mistake: Drafting Barkley 1.1. Close 2nd was drafting QB (Lamar Jackson) 3.1. There's no way to avoid injuries, but I definitely get burned every time I take QB early and wind up with a meager cupboard at RB/WR when injuries occur.  

2. Lesson Learned: I can't really say it is a lesson learned because it probably won't change... but my redraft tendency is overvaluing young players in redraft. Call it dynasty league goggles. Last year it was Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, Antonio Gibson, Deebo Samuel. I've hit on a few over the years and am always chasing that next difference making RB/WR.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I'm saving all my draft boners for when we get our first female owner.

 

[Gally]

Biggest Lesson Learned:  I actually did it right last year and really identified nuances in varying scoring systems across my leagues to see where it could be exploited.  I know it sounds simple but really knowing your league rules (especially scoring nuances) can lead to very profitable picks as the draft goes on.  Typically in years past I would go into drafts knowing the scoring rules with a general sense of WR's score more/less etc without tailoring the draft strategy and rankings to specific nuances.  For instance, one  league was a SF but the scoring for QB's was depressed (not a lot of yardage pts vs other positions) so it made QB not necessarily the ideal SF play and I drafted accordingly.  I was able to leverage that while people were hitting QB early and often because "SF" and I pivoted to more WR's (had a scoring advantage) and I was able to use that to be the highest scoring team for the year by a lot.  Unfortunately I forgot to tip the schedule maker so I was also had the highest pts vs and finished 3rd (no playoffs just best record).  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm saving all my draft boners for when we get our first female owner.

Something tells me that might be a while. Call it a hunch.  

 

[Jayded]

Worst Mistake

I know my style and my style is to play with a top TE. I'd rather chase value elsewhere, and instead I got cute and went away from my style to chase value. When I started to run out of options, it went from bad to worse quickly and all of the TEs I liked much at all went back to back. I panicked and overpaid draft choices to try to catch back up (3 picks in the draft for the rights to Goedert, one of which turned into Tee Higgins). Close second is drafting Gurley high enough to assume he'd give me a decent 2-3 years in dynasty.

Lesson Learned

This is a game and we all have tendencies and if you've won before, just like an NFL coach/manager, you know your style. Don't fight it because some draftnick tells you that rookie #847 is the next Mahomes/CMC player if you aren't sure or the pick would be a diversion from how you like to play the game.

 

[facook]

Biggest mistake: Believing over-use would impact Derrick Henry.

Lesson learned: Derrick Henry is not a mere mortal.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Biggest mistake: Believing over-use would impact Derrick Henry.

Lesson learned: Derrick Henry is not a mere mortal.

This will be true every year right up until it’s not. 

 

[facook]

This will be true every year right up until it’s not. 

Well I took at him 3 in a draft yesterday, so probably this is the year it's not.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well I took at him 3 in a draft yesterday, so probably this is the year it's not.

Godspeed.

 

[tangfoot]

I only played in a single redraft league last year and missed the first 7 rounds because I was stuck in traffic.  So I'll post mine based on dynasty leagues.

Biggest mistake: I had the top 3 WRs ranked Jeudy, Jefferson, Lamb and I allowed myself to be swayed by my brilliance.  I traded away 1.07 in SF for Juju (Lamb was taken with that pick.  I still got Jefferson at 1.10, but what could have been.

Biggest lesson learned: having more lottery tickets (draft picks) is always better than scrambling to try to obtain a pick in the middle of your draft when a player you want is slipping.

 

[-jb-]

I went back and looked at my draft in the important league, and I have to say I think I played it right (for once). I drafted Thomas in the first (9th pick), and at the end of the day, just never really recovered from it (one and done in playoffs). But the my next picks were Kelce, Carson (traded for Hopkins before injury), Ridley, Taylor, Gibson.

Lesson learned from 2020 - just because you're drafting a WR in the first round does NOT mean you're less susceptible to injury.

 

[BobbyLayne]

1. What is your biggest draft mistake from 2020? 

2. What is your biggest lesson learned from 2020? 

1. Drafted Mike Thomas, Julio, Godwin, Carson and Sutton in the first 6 rounds. Took Campbell and Jarwin as late round flyers.

2. Don’t draft guys who get hurt a lot. That’s just dumb, man.



But seriously, I think last year I was more engaged and enjoyed FF than at any time in the previous five seasons. It was a lot of work just to make the playoffs. But it revitalized my passion for FF and the NFL.

The real lesson was to just take every blow in stride and focus on fixing the problem. I was super unlucky injury wise. But somehow I kept picking up the right guys at the right time (Edmonds, McKissick, Jamaal Williams, Gage, Logan Thomas) to squeeze just enough production to eek put close wins. Traded early for Claypool & Swift. I had great success streaming Ks and DSTs. It helped that Watson was balling. In the end none of the moves were league winners, I ran out of gas in the playoffs. But I took a bad team and a bad start to the playoffs, so it felt like a successful year.

Never give up.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Never give up.

never surrender. 

BY GRABTHAR'S HAMMER!

 

 

[massraider]

Well I took LeSean McCoy when I could have taken Chase Claypool. 

I have a weakness where I'll try and put together sure things at as many spots as possible, worried about depth. It's a little OCD. 

What I should be doing is shooting for ceiling all the time late, depth can be overrated. Well, I overrate it, anyway. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What I should be doing is shooting for ceiling all the time late, depth can be overrated. Well, I overrate it, anyway. 

it’s an interesting thought. I tend to go through cycles with depth vs upside. I’ll draft an all upside team & end up regretting my lack of depth all year. 

then the next year I think, “well that was dumb. I should draft a safer team” and end up being safe and mediocre in a lot of places.

Hard to find that balance. I think this year I’m back to throwing caution to the wind. If Pitts is there for me in the 4th, I’m on it. Safety be damned. And I’m probably taking 2 RB in the 1st 3 rounds this year, so that’s likely to leave me scrambling to fill out 3 WR spots & still get a quality QB. 

But after so many safe approaches I think shooting for the moon every round is where it’s at. And if I’m thin at any position I’ll deal with it by trade or off the wire.  Can’t win a league being cautious. The 2 championships I’ve got in IDP were both “shoot for the moon” type years. 

Good input.

 

[ffmail4me]

Not as much from a specific draft, but from an overall perspective I put too many eggs in one basket, drafting M Thomas, Barkley etc. in multiple leagues, then when they went down it hurt me across the board.

I will always be subject to this. I can't help it, I like guys I like, so I have TONS of shares of the same players in my leagues. I don't want to diversify just for the sake of it, although I see the logic in doing that in case of injury. But I figure if the player hits, I'm set for a LOOONG time. And I REALLY benefited from that getting Calvin in a TON of leagues his rookie year. 

 

[ffmail4me]

Biggest mistake: Believing over-use would impact Derrick Henry.

Lesson learned: Derrick Henry is not a mere mortal.

I don't know, I traded him late in the year for Taylor and JuJu in a PPR dynasty league. Anyone is for sale for the right price, including the alien we know as Derrick Henry  

 

[Truebluey]

My biggest mistake last year and indeed the past 4 years is that as Commish, I get SO distracted by running my draft and watching for the knuckleheads who lamely draft a player that is a keeper for another team, I get flustered and don't pay attention to MY OWN DRAFT STRATEGY!  I always have a few goals going into a draft and very often I forget them in the heat of the moment.

For example, our league allows you to keep one player drafted at round 8 or later at that round the following year. So it's a common strategy to pick a good rookie in round 8 and hang on to them the next year.  Some of the players I specifically targeted for later rounds in recent years are:

Patrick Mahomes - Andrew Luck was available and I took him first intending to get Mahomes the next round. Mahomes went with the next pick.

Lamar Jackson - I got him EVERYWHERE, on every roster, except my own damn league, where I got flustered and took Cam in round 7.

James Connor - I even wrote a huge note to myself to pick him in the last round during Bell's holdout, but I was so relieved that the draft reached round 15 with no major incidents that I forgot until 30 seconds after the draft ended.

Or I get distracted by the shiny new thing and overvalue them. Last year I took CEH in round 1 (passed on Henry at 7) and Taylor in round 3 (passed on Metcalf, Woods, McLaurin, etc.).  

The weird thing is that I realize my mistakes within minutes of the draft ending, it's just the heat of the moment. I end my drafts filled with regrets.

 

[wlwiles]

Biggest mistake wasn't necessarily a mistake, but something that I didn't execute very well.  Trying to be anti-run, zig when they zag, taking value as it falls at the expense of positional need.  You gotta hit on the picks when you finally do zag.  14 team league last year, and I knew going in that there'd be at least 3-4 QBs and probably ~8 WRs go in the first two rounds so I planned to start RB/RB as long as that held true. I got Dalvin at 1.08, came back for Aaron Jones in the second, and as QBs and WRs and Kelce/Kittle were still flying off the board, I was stunned to find Carson still on the board at 3.08 so I pounced.  Had great RB depth all year which helped because Dalvin and Carson both missed some time, but the 3 RBs to start left me with Golladay as my WR1 bc the WR run had been so deep. I followed that up with another receiver who I can't even remember now, but disappointed all year.  I ended up trading Aaron Jones for Ridley at the deadline just because I was disgusted with chasing WR position all year. 

Biggest lesson learned is something that again I'll write at the top of my draft sheet - CHECK BYE WEEKS WHEN DECIDING BETWEEN TWO PLAYERS.  I ended up with both my QBs having same bye in one superflex, my TE in another league had the same bye as my QB and one of my WRs, etc.  NOTE TO SELF:  If you're torn between Player A and B while on the clock, just glance at their byes and how they align with the rest of your roster, and maybe choose the one that diversifies your byes a bit more if it's truly a coin-flip. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My biggest mistake last year and indeed the past 4 years is that as Commish, I get SO distracted by running my draft

Last year due to pandemic / social distancing we ran the draft online for the 1st time ever. 

And I, as commish, got to deal with 3 league members who's internet must have consisted of 2 cans and a string, or AOL dial-up on a 14.4 baud modem, because they kept timing out. Naturally these 3 knuckleheads were drafting all around my pick. So I'd call them, hear their sob story about a child playing video games or wife watching Netflix, and get them all squared away. Then I'd restart the draft & I'd have 90 seconds to make my pick. Which would normally be fine as I would have spent the previous 5 mins looking over the teams and draft board. 

Never again. I don't care if it's a full-blown ebola outbreak & faces are melting off. If people have to wear full TyVek suits & respirators like Dustin Hoffman in Outbreak, dammit we're drafting live. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Biggest lesson learned is something that again I'll write at the top of my draft sheet - CHECK BYE WEEKS WHEN DECIDING BETWEEN TWO PLAYERS.  I ended up with both my QBs having same bye in one superflex, my TE in another league had the same bye as my QB and one of my WRs, etc.  NOTE TO SELF:  If you're torn between Player A and B while on the clock, just glance at their byes and how they align with the rest of your roster, and maybe choose the one that diversifies your byes a bit more if it's truly a coin-flip. 

This one is sooooo good. I do this every year. I forget to check BYEs and at the end of the draft I panic & look over my team. I've been very fortunate in not having such conflicts. Until 2019 when both my QBs had the same BYE week.  

Was pretty easily resolved with a WW pickup, but it was a wasted pick in retrospect. I am also writing that at the top of my draft sheet. And will be using Draft Dominator as well, which has a very handy column, that I would probably ignore without such a note. lol 

 

[Gally]

Well I took LeSean McCoy when I could have taken Chase Claypool. 

I have a weakness where I'll try and put together sure things at as many spots as possible, worried about depth. It's a little OCD. 

What I should be doing is shooting for ceiling all the time late, depth can be overrated. Well, I overrate it, anyway. 

This kind of ties in with the idea of trying to avoid roster cloggers late in drafts.  You know there will always be guys that pop early on the waiver wire so by going high upside late in drafts if they don't pop it's easy to dump for the guy that did pop.  Never take strictly depth picks late in a draft. Every pick needs to have a path to starter and the ability to maintain that if things break the right way.  Getting that older Frank Gore type that is just depth can hurt a lot more than it helps for a late draft pick.  

 

[yoman]

. Biggest lesson learned is something that again I'll write at the top of my draft sheet - CHECK BYE WEEKS WHEN DECIDING BETWEEN TWO PLAYERS.  I ended up with both my QBs having same bye in one superflex, my TE in another league had the same bye as my QB and one of my WRs, etc.  NOTE TO SELF:  If you're torn between Player A and B while on the clock, just glance at their byes and how they align with the rest of your roster, and maybe choose the one that diversifies your byes a bit more if it's truly a coin-flip. 

I screwed myself one week last year because of this too and have done so in the past as well. I might also lower a player because of their vaccination status as well now that I know the league is going to come down hard on the un-vaccinated players. That might be the deciding factor if it is a coin flip. Please don't make this political because I am just trying to state this as a fact and no it has no place in this forum.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I might also lower a player because of their vaccination status as well now that I know the league is going to come down hard on the un-vaccinated players. That might be the deciding factor if it is a coin flip. Please don't make this political because I am just trying to state this as a fact and no it has no place in this forum.

Not political at all - just practical. I won’t be drafting Hopkins this year for this reason exactly. 2 weeks worth of lost points for a positive test, or even a proximity / contact tracing exposure?

Yeah, that’s just smart FF strategy IMO. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One that I have to remind myself about every year: I don’t care how good my draft starts, or how many of my targeted picks I landed. Never. Stop. Grinding.

I grind for months in the off-season. I do try to be relaxed during the draft. 

But relaxed doesn’t mean complacent. 

And between 3 people in my league with *the same birthday*, and one owner owning a pizzeria & bringing a keg to the draft, there’s always bourbon, high ABV beer and pizza going on.

As I am one of the 3, I am often given a bottle, which is expected to be opened and shared.

Long story short, my most “fun” drafts occasionally turn out to be my worst ones.  

So I remind myself to pace….myself. 

/Austin Powers 

So I won’t have more than a couple fingers of bourbon, or more than 1-2 beers. It’s not easy - I love bourbon & microbrew.

But I also hate having a bad team. A day of celebration can equal months of FF misery. So I will take it slow & remain focused, even if it means being more sober than I’d like to be for what is essentially my birthday party. 

I’ll have time to pour a couple back after the draft if I’m so inclined. 29 rounds of IDP is a marathon, not a sprint. Drink plenty of water, sip don't chug, and be deliberate and purposeful in my drafting. While everyone else is using the 2x 15 min breaks to take another pull, I will use them to evaluate my draft, check out what players are around that maybe shouldn’t be, and reset for the next drafting session. 

 

[battlestar]

I am coming at this from the biggest lesson perspective - which frankly I should have known by now having played this game since the mid-2000's.

In a league with friends of a friend, new to dynasty I got a little too big for my britches.  Made a couple of win now moves that were terrible in the long term.  (Traded for Alex Smith and gave up AJ Dillon...dealt Ekeler for Robinson).  These look terrible in hindsight but at the time, didn't seem quite so bad sort of made sense as I thought I was closer to the championship than I actually was.

Hubris and ego got the best of me, thinking I could stroll to a win.  I'd like to blame legalizing marijuana but that really isn't fair to Mary Jane. 

My lesson is to stay objective...especially as the season wears on and we near the trade deadline...must....stay...objective!