Let's take a quick look shall we:
The bottom 10 teams last year in Points per Game Allowed were:
Titans
Cardinals
Bills
Redskins
Panthers
Browns
Seahawks
Broncos
49ers
Patriots
(Texans, Lions, Colts just missed the cut)
The bottom 10 teams in Yards per Game Allowed were:
Broncos
Redskins
Texans
Cardinals
Jaguars
Seahawks
Titans
Patriots
Bills
Cowboys
(Browns, Lions, Colts just missed the cut)
Taking into consideration players added, lost, coaching, the effect of the lockout, players back from injuries, etc...I would imagine most of those teams continue to stay in the bottom tier...except maybe the Patriots (they're a young defense that will make some strides this year, plus they got some help). The Texans got some much needed help in their secondary, but will probably still have to score quite a bit as their Defense isn't gonna be shutting anyone out.
Then you have to look at each one of those teams as determine if they have the ability to score. Fitzpatrick/Stevie Johnson/Bills managed to produce much to the surprise of many. But Clevelans had a hard time. You can say that the teams above will have to pass more, expecially in the 4th quarter of games this year, but will they be able to produce like the Bills crew did to some extent?
Buffalo - Sure. They may be much like they were last year.
Cardinals - How effective they will be is yet to be determined. But Kolb to Fitzgerald is looking good..at least in terms of volume.
Titans - Lots of question marks with this team. If Hasselback can generate any kind of repoire with Britt, he could be a nice steal. Hasselback got along with Carlson well enough in Seattle, maybe Cook will have some value??
Redskins - I want to like Santana Moss...but I don't. Nothing about this team looks good...kinda like the Panthers of 2010
Panthers - Speaking of the Panthers...I'd rather have several QBs over Cam Newton, but Steve Smith might benefit from this and he can be had late in drafts. The RB's might benefit as teams allow underneath passes late in games...same as CJ2K
Browns - It's a good thing that Hillis can catch the ball, because they don't have much else. Even if you want to buy a WR from this team...who's gonna throw the ball to him. As bad a situation as the Redskins...almost.
Texans - What's not to like here? If these guys can stay healthy, everyone from AJ to Scahub to Foster will produce. Good recipe for success here.
Jags - I like Marcedes Lewis for this reason. Furthermore, I think he can produce no matter who is at QB. Same for Jones-Drew (if he can stay healthy!). The WRs I don't like so much...they would struggle against a defense that is playing the pass.
49ers - Ugh...There's just enough here to tease you. I'd be okay with Vernon Davis as he may benefit from a lot of 4th quarter passing. But you can grab Crabtree at your own risk. Braylon Edwards...same. Alex Smith...same. They may be productive...sure. But guessing who and when is going to drive us crazy. Vernon Davis and Gore with good value, otherwise I'd probably pass.
Seahawks - On paper everyone wants to like what they see. Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, Gallery @ OG, Tarvaris Jackson makes some people cringe a little though. It's looks kinda like quick sand to me...I want to step in it because it doesn't seem that bad/risky...but once you're in it, you're screwed. Buying on these players at good value is not a bad idea...but I've seen Sidney Rice go anywhere from the group including Boldin, Collie & Steve Johnson, Ochocinco (I'd pass in this situation), to the group including Santana Moss, Crabtree and AJ Green/Julio Jones (I might buy here). I'd be happier with Miller if Carlson wasn't still there, but as a late TE1, early TE2...given the purpose of this thread, that's a good buy.
Patriots, Cowboys and Colts - See Texans above ^^^
Lions - Interesting situation here. The defense should be more improved so they don't fall in the bottom group like last year. But I imagine they will still have to score a bit and do some passing in the final part of the 4th quarters. I like me some Calvin Johnson a lot. I want to like Best and Pettigrew. I imagine someone will always be higher on Best, so I'll just miss him, but his receiving threat is nice, expecially in PPR. I wish Stafford had a more consistent/solid rapport with Pettigrew, but he's not a bad buy if you go a little TEBC.
