Worst football argument (1 Viewer)

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

This is sort-of related, but when a guy is injured I HATE when his owners post crap like "I'm a xxx owner, and I'd prefer he sit out for a few games if it means him being 100% down the road."

Really? Would you? Unfortunately, the world doesn't need to follow you through the bargaining stage of your fantasy grief-- and even if he misses games you still aren't guaranteed to get him back at 100%.

I know I'm being weird about that, but it's a pet peeve of mine.

 

[bonesman]

yea... if you subtract the longest... you have to subtract the lowest too. It's something that was taught in statistics class.... i'm not 100% sure... but i think it had to do w/ determining PROBABILITY.

so when some player has a 100+ day and the bulk of that was w/ one carry... the probability of him having 100 on a consistant basis is low.

i think that's important info to take into consideration

Some players are more likely to break long runs, and they shouldn't be penalized for that. If you're comparing, say, Antowain Smith and Vernand Morency, and you throw out their longest and shortest runs, with Smith you're likely to be throwing out a 0-yard and an 8-yard run, while with Morency you may be throwing out a 0-yard and a 40-yard run. You will always be throwing out longer runs for Morency than you do for Smith; therefore, throwing out the long run and short run understates Morency's value relative to Smith.

not at all... this method isn't used for evaluating 4 or 5 carries... it's used to evaluate many... if analyzing a season you may throw out a players best game and his worst... extremes throw off averages... if you want to be more accurate you figure out some kind of standard deviation after you get your probability... anyway...if Morency consistantly breaks off long runs.... his avg per carry or per game will be higher and he'll still be valued more... unless he's getting all his yards on ONE carry and doing nothing w/ the rest

 

[CalBear]

not at all... this method isn't used for evaluating 4 or 5 carries... it's used to evaluate many... if analyzing a season you may throw out a players best game and his worst... extremes throw off averages... if you want to be more accurate you figure out some kind of standard deviation after you get your probability... anyway...if Morency consistantly breaks off long runs.... his avg per carry or per game will be higher and he'll still be valued more... unless he's getting all his yards on ONE carry and doing nothing w/ the rest

Throwing out outliers doesn't improve your data when you're comparing curves which don't have the same shape. The curves for "RB carry results" differ from RB to RB; you would throw out outliers if you think they are throwing off the curve for a particular RB, but if you try to fit all the RBs to the same curve, you'll be throwing out useful information.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

I fully expected to find"USC could beat the 49ers"when I clicked this thread.

That would be under the category:"Dumbest human being who thinks so argument"I still listen to guys try and claim this every now and then. To me it is an instant credibility loss when they claim it would happen.

 

[ren hoek]

When you start becoming a stat geek you will over analyze it and become a numbers guy instead of watching the game and forming a true opinion of "can the guy really play or not". Watch the players and stop reading just the box scores if you want to have a chance to win this game.

Let me guess - you're a Yankees fan.

Joe Morgan down?

 

[Munch]

When you start becoming a stat geek you will over analyze it and become a numbers guy instead of watching the game and forming a true opinion of "can the guy really play or not". Watch the players and stop reading just the box scores if you want to have a chance to win this game.

Let me guess - you're a Yankees fan.

Joe Morgan down?

http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/

 

[Biabreakable]

Expect player X to have a big season because he is playing with a chip on a shoulder.

Baltimore Ravens

Strength:

Jamal Lewis is coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder. What happens when a running back with a chip on his shoulder faces a linebacker with a chip on his shoulder? Maybe they both just die right there from the force of the collision. Powerful things, those shoulder chips.

The Brushback 2006 AFC Preview

I heard LenDale White is expected to have a Doritos chip on his shoulder this year. He'll eat it when he gets hungry during the games though so I wouldn't worry.

*laffs

 

[BGP]

Take away that 1 run and RB X only has X yards per carry.The last time I checked all runs count the same in fantasy football. So, unless your league penalizes each RB and takes away their longest run before calculating the points, give it a rest. Oh, and you won't see the NFL taking away anyone's runs either.The argument is old and tired.

This has always been one of the more amusing complaints people have. The cruz of this arguement is that people exclude one bizarre data point when looking at data. In truth, people don't do this a whole lot. In fact, people tend to do the exact opposite far more - they overreact to every single data point that comes along, unable to see any pattern in anything. Thus, they embark on wild mood swings when they try to make a judgement.I think if people took THIS approach more than its opposite, the world would be a better place.

 

[billymays]

this is one i hate

"Player X has great vision"

uhh no-he's got a good offensive line

 

[Sea Bass]

What about the "less filling" vs. "tastes great" argument?

 

[TinHat]

not at all... this method isn't used for evaluating 4 or 5 carries... it's used to evaluate many... if analyzing a season you may throw out a players best game and his worst... extremes throw off averages... if you want to be more accurate you figure out some kind of standard deviation after you get your probability... anyway...if Morency consistantly breaks off long runs.... his avg per carry or per game will be higher and he'll still be valued more... unless he's getting all his yards on ONE carry and doing nothing w/ the rest

Throwing out outliers doesn't improve your data when you're comparing curves which don't have the same shape. The curves for "RB carry results" differ from RB to RB; you would throw out outliers if you think they are throwing off the curve for a particular RB, but if you try to fit all the RBs to the same curve, you'll be throwing out useful information.

It seems to be the goal of most people to throw out useful information so they can say"[RB] be good" or "[RB] ain't be no good"It's all useful information.You should know what the outliers are, and what the data w/o the outliers looks like.Try thinking in more than one dimension for a change.

 

[valhallan]

Well, you shouldn't make player evaluations based solely on stats anyway. WATCH THE GAMES!

 

[Liquid Tension]

it's a weak argument, but most don't use to debate a RB's fantasy value, but rather their effectiveness as a runner, thereby leading to more future opportunity and potential value. and there is a difference in effectiveness of RB A that goes 6, 9, 5, 8 and RB B that goes 1, 1, 26, 1

Glad to see someone gets why that argument is valid SOMETIMES. It all depends on the context and comparison you are making; to ignore it all the time is just being ignorant.

 

[Biabreakable]

this is one i hate"Player X has great vision"uhh no-he's got a good offensive line

This never helped Michael Bennett and many others who have slipped into obscurity.A Rbs vision and timing are very important. I think offensive line play is very very important. But it doesen't mean jack if your Rb keeps picking the wrong hole or tripping themselves up in the backfield because they do not understand the flow of the play.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Leaving out the longest run is just a .

 

[billymays]

this is one i hate"Player X has great vision"uhh no-he's got a good offensive line

This never helped Michael Bennett and many others who have slipped into obscurity.A Rbs vision and timing are very important. I think offensive line play is very very important. But it doesen't mean jack if your Rb keeps picking the wrong hole or tripping themselves up in the backfield because they do not understand the flow of the play.

Ok-but what if there is no hole?

 

[Biabreakable]

this is one i hate"Player X has great vision"uhh no-he's got a good offensive line

This never helped Michael Bennett and many others who have slipped into obscurity.A Rbs vision and timing are very important. I think offensive line play is very very important. But it doesen't mean jack if your Rb keeps picking the wrong hole or tripping themselves up in the backfield because they do not understand the flow of the play.

Ok-but what if there is no hole?

Players like Cadilac Williams Portis and LT find a way to get positive yardage even when the defense fills the gap they are supposed to attack.Because of thier vision agility and ability to anticipate and react to the play.Vision is a buzz word for many things though I agree.

 

[billymays]

i guess what i hate is when there is a hole 5 yds wide where the play is designed to go and the rb waltz' through it and the announcers are like "look at the great vision" its like ya know s**t