WR Brandin Cooks, BUF (10 Viewers)

[cloppbeast]

They overpaid for Amendola money wise, but comparing him with Cooks:

They're a little but the same, and a little bit different. Neither of us know the implications as such.

My point goes beyond any "yeah, but....." you can throw out there: NE has brought in many FA wide receivers who haven't lived up to our expectations. None of them were as good as Cooks (besides Moss), but none of them had his high hopes either. The pats sure had a reason putting money in him, but we all know it wasn't for Bill's WR1 on his fantasy team.

 

[FF Ninja]

The back story on Cooks coming to NE is in 2015 and 2016, the Pats shared a week of practice with the Saints in training camp before meeting up in preseason games each year. In both the practices and in the games, Cooks made the Pats secondary look really bad. Basically, he abused them, They kept getting burned by Cooks. In the first preseason game, Cooks went 4-117-1. In his only series the next year, he had one catch for 37 yards.

BB commented at the time that Cooks' was the total package: great route running, ability to get separation and get open, and great YAC. They have tried acquiring him ever since. One could almost say BB has been obsessed in getting Cooks.

I don't see any way NE doesn't go out of their way to get Cooks the football. As I see thinks shaping up, Brady's reads will be Edelman / Gronk / Cooks all as primary targets . . . and everyone else gets the rest. 

Off the top, assuming 630 passes on the season (which may be a little high, but let's just use that for now):

Edelman 130
Cooks 120
Gronk 100
White 80
Mitchell 50
Hogan 50
Lewis 30
Amendola 30
Others 40
630


I factored in Edelman missing a couple games and Gronk missing a couple games (and sitting out the last week due to clinching). The "others" category includes people like Develin, Burkhead, Clark, Hawkins, Foster, Lengel, etc.

Cooks caught 68% of his targets in NOS. At the same rate, based on 120 targets, that would work out to 82 receptions. At 14 yards a pop, that would work out to 1,148 yards. At 15 yards a catch, that would be 1,230 yards. Predicting TD's is always a fool's errand, but 6-7 seems low and 10-11 seems high. Split the difference on all fronts and call it 82-1190-9.

If he had those numbers last year, he would have ranked as WR7 in 0 PPR leagues and WR8 in 1 PPR leagues.

I believe you on the bolded. However, even if he gets 120 targets, what I was saying is that they won't be the right kind, which means I don't believe we can count on "14 yards a pop." Cooks is not an intermediate WR. He also doesn't do well on contested catches. I think 120 targets from Brees in that system is going to be much better for Cooks than 120 targets from Brady in this system. Cooks only scored 3 red zone TDs last year and 2 the year before. If he's not catching long TDs, I don't think he'll approach 9 TDs. Since PPR is a volume based scoring system, I think 120 targets will get you WR2 numbers, but at his current price tag, that's not good enough.

 

[Anarchy99]

I believe you on the bolded. However, even if he gets 120 targets, what I was saying is that they won't be the right kind, which means I don't believe we can count on "14 yards a pop." Cooks is not an intermediate WR. He also doesn't do well on contested catches. I think 120 targets from Brees in that system is going to be much better for Cooks than 120 targets from Brady in this system. Cooks only scored 3 red zone TDs last year and 2 the year before. If he's not catching long TDs, I don't think he'll approach 9 TDs. Since PPR is a volume based scoring system, I think 120 targets will get you WR2 numbers, but at his current price tag, that's not good enough.

I think some people are over thinking this whole situation. The greatest coach of our generation, in one of the most productive offenses in the game, with one of the greatest QB's to ever play just got a legit WR1 in his prime.

NE has figured out how to set up mismatches and "bait" defenses. Last year Gronk averaged 21.6 ypc, Hogan 17.9 ypc, Bennett 12.7 ypc, and Mitchell 12.5 ypc. Cooks is faster than any of those guys. The Patriots will figure out ways to get Cooks open in space. Last year, NE ranked #1 in the league in most times receivers were deemed as "open" when the ball was delivered to them. NE also had the highest completion percentage of passes completed when their receivers were concerned "closely covered" (meaning Brady let the league in threading the needle).

For all the talk about Brady not being good throwing down the field, I forget the exact metric, but Brady ranked #1 or #2 in passer rating in throws downfield last year (which I think is based on throws that went 20 yards downfield in the air or longer).

So to come full circle, even if they go about things differently than the Saints did, I would expect Cooks' totals to be similar to what they were in New Orleans (where he ranked as WR8 and WR12 the past two seasons).

 

[Tau837]

I projected this in the other Cooks thread in March:

Here was the NE 2016 target breakdown:

• RBs - 130 (23.6%)
  
• TEs - 114 (20.7%)
  
• WRs - 301 (54.7%)
  
  Edelman - 159 targets (28.9%)
  
• Hogan - 58 targets (10.5%)
  
• Mitchell - 48 targets (8.7%)
  
• Amendola - 29 targets (5.3%)
  
• Others - 7 targets (1.3%)
  

That split was obviously influenced by Gronk missing 8 games and playing at less than 100% in others. In 2015, Gronk played 15 games, and TEs had 26.9% of the Patriots' targets.

If everyone remains healthy, I could see a breakdown like this:

• 590 pass attempts
  
• RBs - 135 targets (22.9%)
  
• TEs - 145 targets (24.6%)
  
• WRs - 300 targets (50.8%)
  
  Edelman - 110 targets (18.6%)
  
• Cooks - 95 targets (16.1%)
  
• Hogan - 50 targets (8.5%)
  
• Mitchell - 40 targets (6.8%)
  
• Other - 5 targets (0.8%)
  

[*]Other (e.g., spikes, throwaways) - 10 targets (1.7%)

Of course, it is unlikely everyone will remain healthy. So injuries will dictate how far off this is and in which areas.

Number of pass attempts is also obviously a huge factor. As I posted previously, NE pass attempts in the 12 games with Brady last season scale to 581 pass attempts over 16 games, and I have projected 590 here. They could go scorched earth and attempt 650... or their defense could be good enough to lead them to attempt fewer passes. IMO the under on 600 pass attempts is more likely than the over... less wear and tear on Gronk and Brady.

Comparing to @Anarchy99 projections, there are two significant differences:

1. Anarchy is +40 on pass attempts. From 2014-2016, Brady averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game in the regular season. That scales to 596 pass attempts in 16 games. IMO that 3 year stretch is more predictive than the 3 year stretch prior (2011-2013). He is going to be 40 this year. IMO it is more likely than not that he will never again have a season with 600+ pass attempts in the regular season.

2. Anarchy has WRs getting approximately 65% of the targets, which I believe would be unprecedented in the Gronk era if he doesn't miss a lot of games. In 2008, the WRs got 66% of the targets. In 2009, the WRs got 71.5% of the targets. In 2010, Gronk arrived. Percentage of targets for WRs since then:

• 2010 - 55.8%
  
• 2011 - 51.1%
  
• 2012 - 57.4%
  
• 2013 - 64.5% (Gronk played only 7 games)
  
• 2014 - 52.9%
  
• 2015 - 49.3%
  
• 2016 - 54.7%
  

 

[Anarchy99]

I projected this in the other Cooks thread in March:

Comparing to @Anarchy99 projections, there are two significant differences:

1. Anarchy is +40 on pass attempts. From 2014-2016, Brady averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game in the regular season. That scales to 596 pass attempts in 16 games. IMO that 3 year stretch is more predictive than the 3 year stretch prior (2011-2013). He is going to be 40 this year. IMO it is more likely than not that he will never again have a season with 600+ pass attempts in the regular season.

2. Anarchy has WRs getting approximately 65% of the targets, which I believe would be unprecedented in the Gronk era if he doesn't miss a lot of games. In 2008, the WRs got 66% of the targets. In 2009, the WRs got 71.5% of the targets. In 2010, Gronk arrived. Percentage of targets for WRs since then:

• 2010 - 55.8%
  
• 2011 - 51.1%
  
• 2012 - 57.4%
  
• 2013 - 64.5% (Gronk played only 7 games)
  
• 2014 - 52.9%
  
• 2015 - 49.3%
  
• 2016 - 54.7%
  

We may have to just agree to disagree. I have some concerns with your conclusion. First, in the Aaron Hernandez era, he was listed as a TE but he didn't play as a TE. He played as a WR. He didn't play on the line and was always out wide, split in the slot, in motion, etc. He essentially was an oversized WR. 

Looking just at 2010 as an example (the same effect would happen his other years as well), if he is counted as a WR, then the WR target rate jumps all the way up to 69%. That year might not be the best example in terms of total targets and attempts, as the Patriots had a non-representative 507 passing attempts on the season.

Counting AH as a WR not a TE in 2011, the WR's got 70% of the targets. Counting Hernandez as a WR in 2012 = a target rate of 71% for WR. Going back to when NE was WR heavy in their epic 2007 season, WR's had 73% of the targets.

Bottom line, NE has re-imagined their offense over the years based on the players on their roster in each season. They haven't had a true outside receiving threat in a long time. As such, they went to more 2 TE sets (if we want to count AH as a TE) and also utilized their RBs as receivers much more than they used to.

IMO, looking at what they did without Cooks is not a great predictor of how the offense will look with Cooks, simply because Cooks skill set is not an overlay to what they have had in the last 7 or so years since Moss last was there.

Put another way, if they weren't going to make Cooks a decent size piece of the offensive game plan, why trade a first round pick for him? Did NE change the offense when they added pieces like Corey Dillon? Randy Moss? We Welker? Gronk? The answer to all of those is yes.

Did they change what they did for decent receivers but not top talent in their primes? Guys like LaFell, Lloyd, or Branch when he came back? The answer there is no. IMO, Cooks is a guy they will look to go to and change how they do business for. He is not simply a guy they just put out there and only give the sideline routes and square ins like that groups of guys I just mentioned.

I reiterate that NE has been trying to get Cooks for the past two years. This is a guy they have been actively pursuing for a long, long time. He is not going to lose targets to WRs on the bottom of the depth chart or second TE's. The huge core of targets and production will flow through Edelman, Gronk, and Cooks. The other guys will be guys that are used as mismatches and guys that chip in. 

But as they say, that's why they play the games.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think some people are over thinking this whole situation. The greatest coach of our generation, in one of the most productive offenses in the game, with one of the greatest QB's to ever play just got a legit WR1 in his prime.

NE has figured out how to set up mismatches and "bait" defenses. Last year Gronk averaged 21.6 ypc, Hogan 17.9 ypc, Bennett 12.7 ypc, and Mitchell 12.5 ypc. Cooks is faster than any of those guys. The Patriots will figure out ways to get Cooks open in space. Last year, NE ranked #1 in the league in most times receivers were deemed as "open" when the ball was delivered to them. NE also had the highest completion percentage of passes completed when their receivers were concerned "closely covered" (meaning Brady let the league in threading the needle).

For all the talk about Brady not being good throwing down the field, I forget the exact metric, but Brady ranked #1 or #2 in passer rating in throws downfield last year (which I think is based on throws that went 20 yards downfield in the air or longer).

So to come full circle, even if they go about things differently than the Saints did, I would expect Cooks' totals to be similar to what they were in New Orleans (where he ranked as WR8 and WR12 the past two seasons).

It's certainly possible I'm overthinking this, but Brady is old, Cooks is limited in his route success*, and there's a lot of competition for targets. If Cooks was being devalued, I could see making a case for him, but I'll be shocked if he finishes WR12. I'd much rather gamble on Baldwin or Keenan or even Crabtree. They are cheaper and all seem like locks for 80 rec whereas Cooks will need some things to break his way to get to 80.

*IMO, this makes him more of a very good complementary WR than a legit WR1.

I think I saw the metric about Brady's downfield accuracy. It was a % and his number of attempts was really low. His ratio of deep passes per pass attempted was at the bottom of the league. So I guess he caught people off guard when he did go deep. I lost faith in his deep ball when he wasn't able to hit Lloyd several years ago. I know people will blame it on Lloyd, but he was only 31. 

 

[Tau837]

Put another way, if they weren't going to make Cooks a decent size piece of the offensive game plan, why trade a first round pick for him? Did NE change the offense when they added pieces like Corey Dillon? Randy Moss? We Welker? Gronk? The answer to all of those is yes.

Did they change what they did for decent receivers but not top talent in their primes? Guys like LaFell, Lloyd, or Branch when he came back? The answer there is no. IMO, Cooks is a guy they will look to go to and change how they do business for. He is not simply a guy they just put out there and only give the sideline routes and square ins like that groups of guys I just mentioned.

I agree with the idea that Cooks is better than LaFell, Lloyd, and Branch, and so the Pats are more likely to adjust more to Cooks than they did to them. On the top end, you mention Moss and Gronk, and IMO Cooks is not a transformational player of that caliber. I think Dillon and Welker are the solid examples for your stance, particularly Welker since he was a WR.

But even for Welker, there are so many differences. Welker joined NE in 2007 and had 112/1175/8 that season. But Brady was 30 then, they did not have a TE even remotely close to Gronk, and the combo of White/Lewis seems to be at least a little better than 2007 Faulk. If 2007 Welker joined this Pats team, I wouldn't be expecting him to put up anything particularly close to his actual 2007 performance.

Anyway, as you said, that's why they play the games.

 

[Anarchy99]

Randy Moss had a 42-533-3 season in OAK before the Raiders cut bait and senthim to NE. Welker had a 67-687-1 season his last year in MIA. Based on that, at the time, did anyone think they were going to be "transformational players?"

NE has been drooling over Cooks long before they got him . . . and even more so after they got him. Forgot what we think . . . the team itself thinks Cooks is a transformational player. Even Cooks was surprised at how well organized and demanding the way Patriots approached things right from Day 1 of OTA's. Not that I put a ton of stock on early reports as everyone looks good in shorts and without contact, but he has been drawing rave reviews. Here was a clip from a recent article:

"Brandin Cooks: So far has been a big standout. His speed and overall route running have been a sight to see at OTAs, but the biggest worry coming into it was his connection with Tom Brady. Transitioning from a future Hall-of-Famer like Drew Brees is seemingly a pretty huge thing when it comes to the best Quarterback of all time in Tom Brady. He has been taking on the team head on and has been the first one in front during the practice drills.  He was together with Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan the most out of any three-receiver sets."

Looking around the net at rankings and projections for Cooks, I am beginning to think that he is underrated. He should be ranked in the WR 6-10 range and most placed have him in the teens to 20 range.

I suspect that the Pats will unveil another revision or evolution of their offense for DC's to chew on and Cooks will be a key cog in it. I don't think Cooks is going off for 1600 yards and 20 TDs or anything crazy like that, but I stand by my target and productivity numbers earlier in this thread.

 

[Tanner9919]

Randy Moss had a 42-533-3 season in OAK before the Raiders cut bait and senthim to NE. Welker had a 67-687-1 season his last year in MIA. Based on that, at the time, did anyone think they were going to be "transformational players?"

NE has been drooling over Cooks long before they got him . . . and even more so after they got him. Forgot what we think . . . the team itself thinks Cooks is a transformational player. Even Cooks was surprised at how well organized and demanding the way Patriots approached things right from Day 1 of OTA's. Not that I put a ton of stock on early reports as everyone looks good in shorts and without contact, but he has been drawing rave reviews. Here was a clip from a recent article:

"Brandin Cooks: So far has been a big standout. His speed and overall route running have been a sight to see at OTAs, but the biggest worry coming into it was his connection with Tom Brady. Transitioning from a future Hall-of-Famer like Drew Brees is seemingly a pretty huge thing when it comes to the best Quarterback of all time in Tom Brady. He has been taking on the team head on and has been the first one in front during the practice drills.  He was together with Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan the most out of any three-receiver sets."

Looking around the net at rankings and projections for Cooks, I am beginning to think that he is underrated. He should be ranked in the WR 6-10 range and most placed have him in the teens to 20 range.

I suspect that the Pats will unveil another revision or evolution of their offense for DC's to chew on and Cooks will be a key cog in it. I don't think Cooks is going off for 1600 yards and 20 TDs or anything crazy like that, but I stand by my target and productivity numbers earlier in this thread.

couldnt agree more.great posts. youre right people are really overthinking this. Cooks is going to light it up this year. Lets not forget theyve replaced a stud RB in Blount with a also ran career backup who might be an analytics star but does that translate to a fulltime role? so in lieu of a quality running game,  constant injuries to Edelman and the aging always hurt Gronkowski, make no mistake about it,  NE is betting the farm on, and hitching the wagon to,  the back of Cooks..

95+ recs. about 1300 yards. 10+Tds. who cares what he did in N.O. this is NE the #1 offense in football and thats not changing anytime soon. hes going to see plenty of 5 yard outs run for 55 yard td's..Pats illegal pick plays will free this guy for double digit td's , with ease..

and he's less flakey than OBJ. 

 

[Anarchy99]

Was going to mention the Blount situation in the Indefinite Patriots thread. NE felt all along that a capable back could fill Blount's shoes and be a lot more versatile, thus they offered him chump change (for like the 4th time). They first moved on to Burkhead to pretty much throw Blount overboard. Then they went out and paid even more for Gillislee when it appeared he might be available (pretty much the nail in the coffin for Blount).

So the evil genius opted to pay a fair amount to a guy when he just paid out decent money to Burkhead. Did people miss the pics a couple weeks ago of BB wearing HIS TEN SUPER BOWL RINGS??????? Call it a hunch that Bill knows what he is doing and the Pats UPGRADED at the running back position. Yet I've seen projections where the Patriots RB production takes a precipitous step backwards by "losing" their stud RB in favor of those career back ups that you mentioned.

Not to knock FBG, but their team projections for the Patriots this year are . . . a little odd, to say the least. To recap, Brady is not suspended this year. And as mentioned, they get the two new RB's. And Lewis is a year removed from injury. Oh yeah, almost forgot about Cooks. Almost forgot, they get Gronk back, too. So you would think with all those things that should make NE a high octane offense, more so than ever, the FBG projections would be GYNORMOUS!

The 2016 version of the Pats offense scored 51 touchdowns. Care to guess what the FBG projections have in store for them in 2017? The average of the 4 FBG staffers has New England scoring 52 touchdowns this season. I guess not much changed for the Patriots offense from last year until now . . . slot them in for only one more touchdown this season.

I think people are misreading what will happen and underrating just how strong the Patriots offense will be this year. But maybe that's just me and what do I know.

 

[BigTex]

It's certainly possible I'm overthinking this, but Brady is old, Cooks is limited in his route success*, and there's a lot of competition for targets. If Cooks was being devalued, I could see making a case for him, but I'll be shocked if he finishes WR12. I'd much rather gamble on Baldwin or Keenan or even Crabtree. They are cheaper and all seem like locks for 80 rec whereas Cooks will need some things to break his way to get to 80.

*IMO, this makes him more of a very good complementary WR than a legit WR1.

I think I saw the metric about Brady's downfield accuracy. It was a % and his number of attempts was really low. His ratio of deep passes per pass attempted was at the bottom of the league. So I guess he caught people off guard when he did go deep. I lost faith in his deep ball when he wasn't able to hit Lloyd several years ago. I know people will blame it on Lloyd, but he was only 31. 

At one point Brady posted the highest passer rating of his career (122.2) on throws traveling 20-plus yards in the air which was fourth-best in the NFL. Brady has always had success on deep throws. Again he made Chris Hogan look good. At one Hogan was tied for seventh in the NFL in deep-ball receptions last season, with nine, and was tied for fifth in yards on such catches, with 375.

Cooks>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hogan

Tex

 

[FF Ninja]

At one point Brady posted the highest passer rating of his career (122.2) on throws traveling 20-plus yards in the air which was fourth-best in the NFL. Brady has always had success on deep throws. Again he made Chris Hogan look good. At one Hogan was tied for seventh in the NFL in deep-ball receptions last season, with nine, and was tied for fifth in yards on such catches, with 375.

Cooks>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hogan

Tex

Comparing Brady's deep ball passer rating is like comparing yards per carry of a scat back who gets 5 carries a game to an early down bruiser who gets 20 carries a game on 1st and 2nd down. Brady has been a dink and dunk artist for the past 5 years at least. I'm sorry, but I'm not getting excited about a WR, whose skill set is more limited than Mike Wallace, going to a dink and dunk offense. WR12 is just too steep of a price.

 

[BigTex]

Comparing Brady's deep ball passer rating is like comparing yards per carry of a scat back who gets 5 carries a game to an early down bruiser who gets 20 carries a game on 1st and 2nd down. Brady has been a dink and dunk artist for the past 5 years at least. I'm sorry, but I'm not getting excited about a WR, whose skill set is more limited than Mike Wallace, going to a dink and dunk offense. WR12 is just too steep of a price.

Brady is not a dink and dunk QB. He's very smart with the ball and takes whatever is open. You said he wasn't good on deep throws, where is that claim coming from? Dink and Dunk based on what? Brady is a better QB than Brees and has been over their careers. I don't see the downside here.

Tex

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Yeah, calling TB a dink and dunk QB is comical. He's arguably the GOAT. Now Alex Smith.... HE is a d&d passer. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Brady is not a dink and dunk QB. He's very smart with the ball and takes whatever is open. You said he wasn't good on deep throws, where is that claim coming from? Dink and Dunk based on what? Brady is a better QB than Brees and has been over their careers. I don't see the downside here.

Tex

From watching him play. I feel like his % of passes to the slot WR, TE, and RBs has to be one of the highest in the league. They haven't had an effective outside WR in years. Lloyd was a very good outside WR (so underrated) but Brady somehow turned him into a guy who only averaged 12.3 ypr. If anyone has access to PFF, please check QB aDoT for the past couple years. I know Alex Smith is the king of low aDoT but I'd be very curious where Brady ranks on there. I think this is the link: https://www.profootballfocus.com/data/fantasy/fantasy.php?tab=&season=2016&fpos=QB&teamid=-1&filter=25&wk=1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17

As for Brees vs. Brady, I disagree. Put Brady on the lowly Chargers and the terribly run Saints and tell me he wins 5 rings. I see them as quite similar as far as overall skill (different skill sets), but I feel like Brees has had to carry his team more than Brady has. But in terms of 2017, Brees is definitely more willing to go deep and plays better to Cooks' skill set. Both of them are getting old, though, so they're both at risk of falling off that cliff.

 

[Anarchy99]

From watching him play. I feel like his % of passes to the slot WR, TE, and RBs has to be one of the highest in the league. They haven't had an effective outside WR in years. Lloyd was a very good outside WR (so underrated) but Brady somehow turned him into a guy who only averaged 12.3 ypr. If anyone has access to PFF, please check QB aDoT for the past couple years. I know Alex Smith is the king of low aDoT but I'd be very curious where Brady ranks on there. I think this is the link: https://www.profootballfocus.com/data/fantasy/fantasy.php?tab=&season=2016&fpos=QB&teamid=-1&filter=25&wk=1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17

As for Brees vs. Brady, I disagree. Put Brady on the lowly Chargers and the terribly run Saints and tell me he wins 5 rings. I see them as quite similar as far as overall skill (different skill sets), but I feel like Brees has had to carry his team more than Brady has. But in terms of 2017, Brees is definitely more willing to go deep and plays better to Cooks' skill set. Both of them are getting old, though, so they're both at risk of falling off that cliff.

So you allude to the Patriots being a much better run organization and that the Saints are terribly run. But your conclusion is that Cooks would be much better off playing in New Orleans? I don't get it.

There's a reason why the Patriots are a well run organization. There offense was doing fine without Cooks. Yet they went out of there way to acquire him. NE will figure out how to use Cooks and take the offense to an even higher level and make them even more difficult to defend.

As for Lloyd, he had one notable season in the NFL out of 12. The rest of the time he was a JAG.

Like you said, the Patriots haven't had an effective outside receiver in years. Maybe it's because they didn't have an appropriate outside receiver to play.

 

[FF Ninja]

So you allude to the Patriots being a much better run organization and that the Saints are terribly run. But your conclusion is that Cooks would be much better off playing in New Orleans? I don't get it.

There's a reason why the Patriots are a well run organization. There offense was doing fine without Cooks. Yet they went out of there way to acquire him. NE will figure out how to use Cooks and take the offense to an even higher level and make them even more difficult to defend.

As for Lloyd, he had one notable season in the NFL out of 12. The rest of the time he was a JAG.

Like you said, the Patriots haven't had an effective outside receiver in years. Maybe it's because they didn't have an appropriate outside receiver to play.

Really? I thought I made it clear that Brees being a downfield passer fits Cooks' game better. I blame the Saints poorly run organization for not surrounding Brees with better blocking and a halfway decent defense so he could actually win games rather than constantly playing in shootouts. That, however, doesn't negatively impact the 2017 fantasy outlook for a singular wide receiver.

And I'm not saying Cooks would be MUCH better playing in New Orleans. With Brees getting up in age, it's entirely possible that his deep game falls off. Cooks playing with a 39 or 40 year old QB would scare me away from a WR12 ADP no matter what. I just liked his odds of hitting WR12 by the end of the year better in NO than NE. He also might've been cheaper.

Lloyd had his own issues with development, but once the light went on, he was really good - with Kyle freaking Orton. In his entire career he had exactly 1 season with a good QB (Brady) and that was by far the lowest YPR of his career.

P.S. I looked it up, it appears Cooks' ADP rose about 10 spots in redraft after the trade.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm normally all for using metrics and finding patterns to predict future usage but it seems futile with New England.  As soon as anyone starts to see a pattern in what they're doing they change it.  They've developed a system built around specific players many times before.  In this case I'm more inclined to line up with Anarchy and believe they have something in mind for Cooks, and didn't go get him just to play the Brandon LaFell role.

In our projections on how the target share has looked with Gronk/Edelman playing together (not that I think it's super relevant when the next option was Brandon LaFell vs. when it's Brandin Cooks), one metric that I can put some weight behind is that Gronk/Edelman have never played 16 games together in a season, ever.

Cooks is a guy I'm willing to role the dice on, even at expensive cost.  I don't see the upside limitations due to target share because New England can change how they share targets on a dime.

 

[Anarchy99]

I was curious to see how often a team had 3 players with 80 receptions in a season, since conceivably the Patriots are positioned to be in that type of situation this year with Edelman, Gronk, and Cooks. I didn't exactly put a ton of effort into it, but it looks like it's only happened 5 times: DET - 2015, CHI - 2014, NOS - 2011, OAK - 2002, and STL - 2000. Given Gronk's penchant for getting hurt, he would be the least likely of the three I mentioned to get to 80 receptions (although he's done it twice before).

 

[Eminence]

Anyone else getting Randy Moss to New England vibes here? The only thing to stop them is if Father Time catches up to Brady.

WR1 potential

 

[Anarchy99]

Anyone else getting Randy Moss to New England vibes here? The only thing to stop them is if Father Time catches up to Brady.

WR1 potential

The 07 Patriots had Moss and Welker at the forefront and role players behind them.

The 17 Patriots have Cooks, Edelman, and Gronk at the forefront and probably better role players behind them. They also use the RBs out of the backfield way more than they did 10 years ago.

For Cooks to have a Moss like season, other players will have to see their targets and production go down. As I say literally every off season, the Patriots are not putting up 10,000 yards of offense and 100 touchdowns. The sum of the projections for individual players added up to an alternative reality.

I suspect that is the case happening here, as not everyone can get 150 targets, 100 receptions, and double digit touchdowns.

 

[Eminence]

The 07 Patriots had Moss and Welker at the forefront and role players behind them.

The 17 Patriots have Cooks, Edelman, and Gronk at the forefront and probably better role players behind them. They also use the RBs out of the backfield way more than they did 10 years ago.

For Cooks to have a Moss like season, other players will have to see their targets and production go down. As I say literally every off season, the Patriots are not putting up 10,000 yards of offense and 100 touchdowns. The sum of the projections for individual players added up to an alternative reality.

I suspect that is the case happening here, as not everyone can get 150 targets, 100 receptions, and double digit touchdowns.

Oh, I don't think he can have a Moss-like season. That was two HOF's in the right place at the right time. I just think the parallels are similar.

Dude is going to have a huge year and have some huge games.

 

[Bayhawks]

Oh, I don't think he can have a Moss-like season. That was two HOF's in the right place at the right time. I just think the parallels are similar.

Dude is going to have a huge year and have some huge games.

Dude might have some huge games, but the parallels ARE NOT similar between he and Moss' situations. 

They are completely different WRs, and they are entering into completely different situations.  The 2017 NE Patriots aren't the 2007 Patriots, and Brees is coming from NO, not the 2006 Oakland Raiders. 

Moss was the #1 receiving option in 2007; Cooks will likely be the #3.  Edelman has averaged 9.6 targets/game since he became a starter in 2013.  If you cut that to 8.6, he's going to get 138 targets.  Gronk has averaged 7.9 targets/game since his sophomore season.  If you cut that to 6.9, that's 110 targets.  Last year, the RBs got 128 targets; with White, Lewis, & Burkhead, I don't see that number dropping much. so give the RBs 110 targets.  That's 358 targets already accounted for.  Allen, Hogan, Mitchell, & Amendola are all going to get some targets.  If you give Allen 40 targets, Hogan 60 targets, Mitchell 50 targets, & Amendola 40 targets, that's another 190 targets, making 548 targets.  For Cooks to get to 120 targets, Brady has to throw 668 passes.  That would have been the 3rd, 2nd, & 1st most pass attempts over the last 3 seasons, and the most passes Brady has ever attempted in a season. 

For you to expect dude to have a Moss-like vibe, you have to assume that Brady's 2 favorite targets get kicked to the curb and Cooks explodes to another level.  Neither of those things are likely.  Cooks will likely come in around what he had the last 2 years in NO-1150/8, and that would be a good season.  Hardly a huge year, or a "Moss-like vibe."

 

[Dr. Octopus]

For Cooks to get to 120 targets, Brady has to throw 668 passes. 

Well, that's only if you are right about all you other target projections and/or if every other player stays healthy of course.

 

[Biabreakable]

Bayhawks I agree with part of what you are saying. Randy Moss was echelons more talented than Brandin Cooks. Calvin Johnson I think was close to Moss level in his prime, but Moss was a pretty amazing freak of a player. In the season where Moss set the TD record, it was something that both Brady and Moss were shooting for. He forced it to Moss more than he needed to. The Patriots usually play smarter football than this, especially when Moss has the defense giving up so much easy stuff underneath. I think this is part of why they had a falling out because Moss really wants the ball. He didn't feel appreciated enough. He wanted Brady to keep forcing the ball to him anyways.

What I don't agree with is some of your target number distribution.

The numbers you are using for Edelman seem reasonable on the surface, however in 2013 Gronk only played in 7 games. The other WR were Amendola who played in 12 games, Aaron Dobson played in 12 games,  Kenbrell Thompkins played in 12 games, Josh Boyce and Austin Collie barely played. There were not many other good options for Brady to work with aside from Edelman that season who did play all 16 games. You note that both years he has had 150 targets are when Gronkowski missed a lot of games. The target rate for this slot WR role in the offense has been consistently high for a long time though and Edelman maintains that target share in the games he played in 2014 and 2015, he just missed 9 of those games. In 2015 it looks like Amendola filled in for Edelman in that role, thus the increase in targets for him that season when Edelman missed 7 games.

In 2014 Gronk played in 15 games, Lafell played 16 games, Edelman played in 14 games, Amendola actually played in 16 games, Kenbrell Thompkins played in 16 but was barely used. This is the example that I pointed to upthread of how targets have been distributed when all of the players are mostly healthy. Lafell had 119 targets that season. He does not play anything close to Edelmans role in the offence so those two games missed by Edelman likely didn't effect Lafell getting more targets. Amendola got 42 targets, he was likely ailing throughout the season but he was available for all 16 games, they just didn't use him that much because other options were available. Tim Wright had 33 targets so perhaps something similar for Allen in 2017 if a similar circumstance of the main players all being healthy for most of the season (you gave Allen 40) The next most targeted WR was Thompkins who had 11 targets. You have Hogan and Mitchell combined getting 110 targets with Amendola also getting 40. I think Hogan and Mitchell are interesting players but all of that is not going to them if Edelman, Cooks and Gronk are healthy for most of the games. Those would be the top 3 and Cooks is a better player than Lafell was. You account for those those targets in the pecking order before assigning targets to other receivers lower in the pecking order imho.

2015 Edelman only played in 9 games, Amendola played in 14 and had 87 targets, presumably taking over a large part of Edelmans role when he was out. If Edelman had remained healthy Amendolas targets likely would have been around 40 again. Lafell only played in 11 games that year but had 74 targets (6.7 per game) which over 16 games would have been 107 targets. You have Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin getting some targets likely because of Lafell and Edelam missing games. When those players are healthy those guys go back to the bench, like you see in 2014.

2016 Gronk only played in 8 games. Amendola played in 12 games and had 29 targets. He lost ground to Hogan and Mitchell in the offense (being phased out) and Edelman was healthy all season, so they didn't need him as much as the previous season. There definitely seems to be a relationship with Edelam and Amendolas targets unrelated to the other WR (maybe Kenbrell Thompkins was used in similar role for two games? Or maybe the RB filled that role somewhat?). The 58 targets Hogan had and the 48 targets Mitchell had were likely often in roles that Cooks will play this season.

As far as the RB targets, that may be a result of weaker WR receiving options being available. In 2014 Shane Vereen had 77 targets, other RB/FB had 31 targets so 108 targets for the RB with their top receivers being mostly healthy. You have the RB getting 128. Perhaps 20 too high for 2017.

I think 2014 is the best example of how the distribution will be with all of the players healthy.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think 2014 is the best example of how the distribution will be with all of the players healthy.

IMO, so much has changed with the personnel on offense that we can easily be witnessing another metamorphosis. 

For starters, I don't see Allen being used as much as Bennett or Hernandez, so he may be used sparingly. To that end, I suspect there will be fewer two TE sets. NE probably also has the strongest collection of WRs they've had, in addition to the strongest set of RBs they've ever had. I know the plan last year was to play Lewis and White a fair amount together, (but Lewis needed more surgery and wasn't ever right). I would guess that is part of the plan for this year.

Bottom line, I suspect looking at the old patterns will not fully translate to what the new planis. I think people are trying to add in Cooks on the back side of things when instead he should be considered one of the mainstays of the offense.

NE has changed up on the fly many other times, so I don't think this should come as a surprise to people.

 

[ZWK]

Here is a first pass at NE's target breakdown:

116    WR Edelman    (In 13.5 games, on pace for 138 tar, 95/1035/6.4)
110    RBs    (In 16 games, on pace for 110 tar, 75/687/3.1)
109    TE Gronkowski    (In 14 games, on pace for 125 tar, 81/1194/13.8)
107    WR Cooks    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 118 tar, 77/1062/7.1)
44    TE Allen    (In 14 games, on pace for 50 tar, 34/365/3.4)
41    WR Mitchell    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 45 tar, 27/383/2)
41    WR Hogan    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 45 tar, 27/383/2)
16    WR Amendola    (In 13 games, on pace for 20 tar, 14/144/0.6)
22    Other WR/TE/other    (In 16 games, on pace for 22 tar, 13/145/0.9)

This adds up to 398/606 for 4842 yards and 35 TDs.

 

[Dope]

I'm a cooks owner and i'm really enjoying the different takes on both sides. I'm of course optimistic but I'm trying to be a realist.

Also, I'm not as detailed as some of you, so I do have a question about Cooks with Brees. Someone posted above about Cooks' route tree and his success (or lack thereof) based upon different routes. I would love to see the stats on Brees throwing those routes to non-cooks receivers.

My point is...maybe Brees isnt good at throwing those routes. Like Greg Maddux is a great pitcher but I wouldn't expect him to get 300 K's.

 

[ZWK]

Here is a first pass at NE's target breakdown:

116    WR Edelman    (In 13.5 games, on pace for 138 tar, 95/1035/6.4)
110    RBs    (In 16 games, on pace for 110 tar, 75/687/3.1)
109    TE Gronkowski    (In 14 games, on pace for 125 tar, 81/1194/13.8)
107    WR Cooks    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 118 tar, 77/1062/7.1)
44    TE Allen    (In 14 games, on pace for 50 tar, 34/365/3.4)
41    WR Mitchell    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 45 tar, 27/383/2)
41    WR Hogan    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 45 tar, 27/383/2)
16    WR Amendola    (In 13 games, on pace for 20 tar, 14/144/0.6)
22    Other WR/TE/other    (In 16 games, on pace for 22 tar, 13/145/0.9)

This adds up to 398/606 for 4842 yards and 35 TDs.

Here is the target distribution that the Patriots have averaged over the past 5 seasons (starting with Gronk's second year):

159 target pace for Edelman/Welker (range: 151-174. My projection for Edelman: 138)
+128 target pace for Gronk* (range: 106-151. My projection: 125)
+104 target pace for WR2 (range: 62-131. My projection for Cooks: 118)
+116 targets for RBs (range: 84-143. My projection: 110)
+165 targets for everyone else (range: 109-202. My projection: 164)
-67 missing targets from WR1/Gronk/WR2 due to missed games (range: 28-113. My projection: 49)
=605 targets total (range: 546-634. My projection: 606)

(*This is treating Gronk's 2016 season pace as 33 targets in 5 games, ignoring the 3 games where he didn't do much)

Looking this over, I think I'm going to add another 5 or so targets for Cooks and take them away from "everyone else".

 

[BigTex]

From watching him play. I feel like his % of passes to the slot WR, TE, and RBs has to be one of the highest in the league. They haven't had an effective outside WR in years. Lloyd was a very good outside WR (so underrated) but Brady somehow turned him into a guy who only averaged 12.3 ypr. If anyone has access to PFF, please check QB aDoT for the past couple years. I know Alex Smith is the king of low aDoT but I'd be very curious where Brady ranks on there. I think this is the link: https://www.profootballfocus.com/data/fantasy/fantasy.php?tab=&season=2016&fpos=QB&teamid=-1&filter=25&wk=1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17

As for Brees vs. Brady, I disagree. Put Brady on the lowly Chargers and the terribly run Saints and tell me he wins 5 rings. I see them as quite similar as far as overall skill (different skill sets), but I feel like Brees has had to carry his team more than Brady has. But in terms of 2017, Brees is definitely more willing to go deep and plays better to Cooks' skill set. Both of them are getting old, though, so they're both at risk of falling off that cliff.

When you say dink and dunk I'm thinking you mean how far he throws the ball on pass plays but you're considering who he throws the ball to? I'm honestly trying to get some clarity so I can better understand your thought process behind your evaluation.

Let me ask this way, how far does a QB has to throw and at what percentage of his throws would it have to be for you to consider him to be a dink and dunk QB?

Tex

 

[Eminence]

Dude might have some huge games, but the parallels ARE NOT similar between he and Moss' situations. 

They are completely different WRs, and they are entering into completely different situations.  The 2017 NE Patriots aren't the 2007 Patriots, and Brees is coming from NO, not the 2006 Oakland Raiders. 

Moss was the #1 receiving option in 2007; Cooks will likely be the #3.  Edelman has averaged 9.6 targets/game since he became a starter in 2013.  If you cut that to 8.6, he's going to get 138 targets.  Gronk has averaged 7.9 targets/game since his sophomore season.  If you cut that to 6.9, that's 110 targets.  Last year, the RBs got 128 targets; with White, Lewis, & Burkhead, I don't see that number dropping much. so give the RBs 110 targets.  That's 358 targets already accounted for.  Allen, Hogan, Mitchell, & Amendola are all going to get some targets.  If you give Allen 40 targets, Hogan 60 targets, Mitchell 50 targets, & Amendola 40 targets, that's another 190 targets, making 548 targets.  For Cooks to get to 120 targets, Brady has to throw 668 passes.  That would have been the 3rd, 2nd, & 1st most pass attempts over the last 3 seasons, and the most passes Brady has ever attempted in a season. 

For you to expect dude to have a Moss-like vibe, you have to assume that Brady's 2 favorite targets get kicked to the curb and Cooks explodes to another level.  Neither of those things are likely.  Cooks will likely come in around what he had the last 2 years in NO-1150/8, and that would be a good season.  Hardly a huge year, or a "Moss-like vibe."

I think you're taking this a little too literal...

Cooks > Every New England WR from last year. Last year's targets don't mean jack.

They didn't trade a First Rounder for Cooks not to use him and I don't care what anyone says, Brady has a better deep ball than just about anyone in the league. Look at the magic him and Chris Hogan put together last year.

He is the best pass catcher on the team and if Gronk gets another boo-boo, Cooks will be his #1 target. Cooks will be on every fantasy team of mine this season.

 

[Eminence]

Patriots owner Bob Kraft compared Brandin Cooks' potential impact to Randy Moss' in New England.

"Since I've owned the team," said Kraft, "the only player that could make an impact like that at wide receiver was Randy Moss."

What does he know though? He only owns the team...

 

[Ojaays]

Eminence, i see you working, and I get it, to a point.

Thing is, Brady has a lot of targets to throw to and has always spread it around. Cooks could lead NE in targets and catches, but I don't suspect it will be by a huge margin if he does.

Expecting R Moss type numbers from the record setting year is setting yourself up for a letdown, most likely. He certainly isn't being drafted like he will equal Moss.

 

[Eminence]

Eminence, i see you working, and I get it, to a point.

Thing is, Brady has a lot of targets to throw to and has always spread it around. Cooks could lead NE in targets and catches, but I don't suspect it will be by a huge margin if he does.

Expecting R Moss type numbers from the record setting year is setting yourself up for a letdown, most likely. He certainly isn't being drafted like he will equal Moss.

Why does everyone keep assuming I'm expecting Randy Moss-type numbers from the guy? I already clarified this once.

Oh, I don't think he can have a Moss-like season. That was two HOF's in the right place at the right time. I just think the parallels are similar.

Dude is going to have a huge year and have some huge games.

That not withstanding, Tom Brady is going to throw to the open man and it's going to be a pick your poison situation for defenses between Edelman, Gronk, and Cooks. Brandin Cooks is going to be the recipient of much single-coverage when teams scheme to stop Edelman and Gronk under the middle. Brandin Cooks is the best Wide Receiver to play with Tom Brady since Randy Moss and Brady will without a doubt find a way to get this guy the ball.

I can already see him torching Buffalo and New York twice a year. His current ADP of 3.01 is a steal and I'll gladly take him as my WR2 if I'm in a position to do such.

 

[shadrap]

I can see Cooks having 3 monster games, 4 average games, 9 games of 3 catches-36 yrds.  Too many mouths to feed. IMHO 

 

[Bayhawks]

I think you're taking this a little too literal...

Cooks > Every New England WR from last year. Last year's targets don't mean jack.

They didn't trade a First Rounder for Cooks not to use him and I don't care what anyone says, Brady has a better deep ball than just about anyone in the league. Look at the magic him and Chris Hogan put together last year.

He is the best pass catcher on the team and if Gronk gets another boo-boo, Cooks will be his #1 target. Cooks will be on every fantasy team of mine this season.

I'm not looking at last years targets; I'm looking at the averages over 5 & 6 years.  And it doesn't matter if you care what anyone says, Brady doesn't have a better deep ball than anyone in the league .  Only 50.7% of his pass yards actually came through the air; the rest was YAC.  There were only about 20 QBs (ignoring guys with 1-2 starts) who had better numbers.  So no, Brady isn't a deep ball thrower any more.

Sure Gronk could get hurt again, but Cooks isn't jumping Grimm or Edelman.  Assuming health, Gronk AND Edelman will both have more targets than Cooks in 2017.  And Cooks isn't (IMO) going to suddenly average 16 YPC, or drastically improve his TD rate.

So good luck with owning him on your teams this year, just don't over-pay.  You'll end up with a high WR2/low WR1.

 

[Eminence]

I'm not looking at last years targets; I'm looking at the averages over 5 & 6 years.  And it doesn't matter if you care what anyone says, Brady doesn't have a better deep ball than anyone in the league .  Only 50.7% of his pass yards actually came through the air; the rest was YAC.  There were only about 20 QBs (ignoring guys with 1-2 starts) who had better numbers.  So no, Brady isn't a deep ball thrower any more.

Sure Gronk could get hurt again, but Cooks isn't jumping Grimm or Edelman.  Assuming health, Gronk AND Edelman will both have more targets than Cooks in 2017.  And Cooks isn't (IMO) going to suddenly average 16 YPC, or drastically improve his TD rate.

So good luck with owning him on your teams this year, just don't over-pay.  You'll end up with a high WR2/low WR1.

Gotta appreciate someone who can agree to disagree, a rarity on the internet. Appreciate your insight!

 

[Tau837]

Brandin Cooks is going to be the recipient of much single-coverage when teams scheme to stop Edelman and Gronk under the middle. Brandin Cooks is the best Wide Receiver to play with Tom Brady since Randy Moss and Brady will without a doubt find a way to get this guy the ball.

Given the second sentence, why do you think teams will scheme to stop Edelman rather than Cooks?

 

[Anarchy99]

Given the second sentence, why do you think teams will scheme to stop Edelman rather than Cooks?

The issue for defenses is that they won't be able to scheme for everything that the Pats can throw at them. While it may not be Cooks' strong suit, NE's pick plays should work wonders with Cooks running them. Between play action and the bubble screens and dinks and dunks, Cooks will be able to pull off a stop and go or double move with Brady going over the top. Not all game, but a couple of times. That could be 50 yards on 2 plays. Give him 3 other receptions for 30 yards, and he'd be looking at a 5-80-1 afternoon.

 

[FF Ninja]

When you say dink and dunk I'm thinking you mean how far he throws the ball on pass plays but you're considering who he throws the ball to? I'm honestly trying to get some clarity so I can better understand your thought process behind your evaluation.

Let me ask this way, how far does a QB has to throw and at what percentage of his throws would it have to be for you to consider him to be a dink and dunk QB?

Tex

I don't typically give much thought to QBs + aDoT but when thinking about an outside WR who is a plus on deep patterns and a minus on intermediate, it seemed mandatory. So thinking back, it feels like not only do most of Brady's targets not get very far past the line of scrimmage, but they are actually laterally close to him - TE, slot WR, RB. So I don't define dink and dunk by who a QB passes to, but my statement about which players get the most targets was really more of me just thinking through the Patriots offense. But again, I don't have access to aDoT data, so I'd really like to know where Brady stands on that for the past ~3 years or so. I know Alex Smith owns that metric, but I expect Brady to be pretty low as well.

But to specifically answer your question, I would say a dink and dunk label would be fitting for the QBs in the lower third or quarter of the league for aDoT (minimum 300 PA). 

 

[FF Ninja]

Patriots owner Bob Kraft compared Brandin Cooks' potential impact to Randy Moss' in New England.

"Since I've owned the team," said Kraft, "the only player that could make an impact like that at wide receiver was Randy Moss."

What does he know though? He only owns the team...

This logic... it is not good.

 

[Eminence]

This logic... it is not good.

Are you kidding me? I've written like an essay in this thread and that's the one thing you cherry pick? Get out of here. Yeah, following the intuition of the owner of the greatest Football Dynasty of our Generation is not good logic.

 

[FF Ninja]

Are you kidding me? I've written like an essay in this thread and that's the one thing you cherry pick? Get out of here. Yeah, following the intuition of the owner of the greatest Football Dynasty of our Generation is not good logic.

When I saw you trying to pull fantasy football information from a clueless owner's quote, I, too, thought "are you kidding me?"

I can't believe I have to explain this to you, but owners typically just do two things: (1) have money and (2) hire someone to handle everything else. Now if this quote had come from the GM, sure, treat it like any other offseason soundbite. But for you to come in here and post a quote from an owner like it has some relevance... I, too, thought "get out of here."

In general, I rank "anonymous source" slightly higher than "owner" when valuing soundbites. Another generality: I don't trust people who have a penchant for wearing tennis shoes with suits. 

 

[Eminence]

When I saw you trying to pull fantasy football information from a clueless owner's quote, I, too, thought "are you kidding me?"

I can't believe I have to explain this to you, but owners typically just do two things: (1) have money and (2) hire someone to handle everything else. Now if this quote had come from the GM, sure, treat it like any other offseason soundbite. But for you to come in here and post a quote from an owner like it has some relevance... I, too, thought "get out of here."

In general, I rank "anonymous source" slightly higher than "owner" when valuing soundbites. Another generality: I don't trust people who have a penchant for wearing tennis shoes with suits. 

Jesus Christ.

Yeah, that Robert Kraft doesn't know his head from his ###. Dude keeps falling backwards into Super Bowl rings, lucky guy. He doesn't post on this Message Board like us so he must not know football. Guy is just out there writing checks.

 

[FF Ninja]

Jesus Christ.

Yeah, that Robert Kraft doesn't know his head from his ###. Dude keeps falling backwards into Super Bowl rings, lucky guy. He doesn't post on this Message Board so he must not know football. Guy is just out there writing checks.

If he's a smart businessman, that's all he's got to do*. And from the looks of it, that's all he's doing, however, are you trying to tell me that he gets down into the nitty gritty of these decisions? I've seen nothing to indicate that he's involved in personnel decisions.

*I think it is working better than the Jerry Jones method.

 

[Eminence]

If he's a smart businessman, that's all he's got to do*. And from the looks of it, that's all he's doing, however, are you trying to tell me that he gets down into the nitty gritty of these decisions? I've seen nothing to indicate that he's involved in personnel decisions.

*I think it is working better than the Jerry Jones method.

Don't get me wrong, I get what you're saying. But Robert Kraft has owned the Patriots for the last 25 years. I'm not going to treat his opinion like Gospel but I'm not going to treat him like he's Mr. Magoo bumbling around with 5 Super Bowl rings on his hand. He either knows what he's doing or he's in the know with people who know what they're doing.

Him alluding Cooks' impact to that of Randy Moss is definitely going to draw interest on my radar. I don't think he's talking out his ### either, I'm sure he's well aware who Brandin Cooks is and even if he didn't someone in his organization has got him this excited about the guy. Both his 25-years of experience owning the team and the group of winners he's got placed around him means that I'm not going to downplay the things he says.

I just found it interesting that first my intuition prompted me to thinking "Cooks is the best receiver Brady has thrown to since Moss" and then when I searched Rotoworld I find a quote of the owner saying pretty much the same exact thing. I don't value my football opinion more than someone who owns a football team so when someone I view as more knowledgeable than me supports my viewpoint, that tells me that I'm probably on the right track.

With that said, your mileage may vary and I definitely understand where you're coming from. But to tell me that following the opinion of a guy closer to the Patriots than either of us will ever be is "bad logic" is certainly going to strike a chord.

 

[satch]

Those of you mocking Robert Krafts opinion are missing a key point. His opinion is essentially Bill Belichicks opinion. Kraft comparing Cooks potential impact to that of Randy Moss is likely coming directly from conversations with Bill Belichick during the Cooks trade discussions. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Those of you mocking Robert Krafts opinion are missing a key point. His opinion is essentially Bill Belichicks opinion. Kraft comparing Cooks potential impact to that of Randy Moss is likely coming directly from conversations with Bill Belichick during the Cooks trade discussions. 

I'm not mocking his opinion*. I'm questioning the use of his opinion to draw fantasy intel. The bolded is one hell of an assumption.

*I did, however, mock his sneakers and suit combo and I stand firm on this.

 

[satch]

I'm not mocking his opinion*. I'm questioning the use of his opinion to draw fantasy intel. The bolded is one hell of an assumption.

*I did, however, mock his sneakers and suit combo and I stand firm on this.

I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to consider Krafts thoughts about players as a small form of fantasy intel. Obviously Kraft and Belichick discussed Brandin Cooks quite a bit during the trade negotiations. If, following these discussions, Kraft then compares Cooks potential impact to that of Randy Moss, I think we can assume Belichick had something to do with forming Krafts opinion.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to consider Krafts thoughts about players as a small form of fantasy intel. Obviously Kraft and Belichick discussed Brandin Cooks quite a bit during the trade negotiations. If, following these discussions, Kraft then compares Cooks potential impact to that of Randy Moss, I think we can assume Belichick had something to do with forming Krafts opinion.

Again, I don't like these assumptions. Kraft doesn't strike me as a guy who meddles and BB doesn't strike me as a guy who would like his owner getting in the middle of things. If we're making assumptions, the one I feel is most likely is that BB has earned the right to make whatever trades he wants and doesn't consult with anyone he doesn't consider an expert.