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WR Brandin Cooks, BUF (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter lardonastick
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
From both a week to week and season to season basis, every time we think we have the New England offense figured out they change it. It's how they stay ahead of the rest of the league too.DawnBTVS said:
On top of that, they have a propensity for getting elite players involved when they have them.
I'm sure when they drafted Gronk and Hernandez there were plenty of people looking at how they rarely use the TE and there just weren't enough targets to go around for them to start doing it. Then all of the sudden TEs were all they threw to.
I'm not over thinking it. Cooks is an elite talent paired with an elite QB and an elite offensive play caller. How last year's targets broke down is barely relevant to me because they didn't have Cooks last year.
For me, that ceiling line you listed there is more what I have for his floor or at least median (or even slightly below median). His ceiling is that Edelman becomes an afterthought or Gronk gets hurt and he ends up getting a bunch of targets from one of the best QBs of all-time. That's a way higher ceiling than 1065/8 for me.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I can sign off on 10 tds as a ceiling but 75-85 catches would require require injuries to way too many peeps. Unless both edelman and dola lose their quicks and Gronk misses half the year or more and Hogan and White join him, that's an unrealistic number of catches for someone just learning the route tree. Ask Ocho or Galloway.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He had 78 and 84 catches the last two years on a relatively minimal number of targets. Is the argument that he used to know the route tree but got amnesia and forgot about it?
TripItUp
Footballguy
Not to mention a seemless integration into the offense is not exactly a forgone conclusion.
If the receptions have a ceiling and he's the fourth red zone target at best you are putting all your eggs into the long TD basket.
No thanks.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
NE option routes < > NO's playbook. Joey Galloway, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson all flunked out.
Brady attempts < Brees attempts (I watch the Saints on a regular basis as my wife is a huge fan and I've adopted them as my NFC stepchild)
Cooks NO competition: Snead, Thomas (R), other / nondescript.
Cooks NE competition: Edelman, Gronk, Allen, White, Amendola, Hogan, Mitchell, etc.
Why would anyone think Cooks' NE production would match his NO production?!?
Don't misunderstand me; I agree he's gifted and I like him for 55 / 900 / 8....I just have a hard time with 75-85 catches on a new team whose existing corps < > chopped liver.
Brady attempts < Brees attempts (I watch the Saints on a regular basis as my wife is a huge fan and I've adopted them as my NFC stepchild)
Cooks NO competition: Snead, Thomas (R), other / nondescript.
Cooks NE competition: Edelman, Gronk, Allen, White, Amendola, Hogan, Mitchell, etc.
Why would anyone think Cooks' NE production would match his NO production?!?
Don't misunderstand me; I agree he's gifted and I like him for 55 / 900 / 8....I just have a hard time with 75-85 catches on a new team whose existing corps < > chopped liver.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
But that's not what you said. You said he didn't know enough of the route tree to catch 75-85 balls. Clearly that's not true, as he's already caught that many balls in back to back seasons.
New England may have a lot of receiving options but New Orleans spreads the ball around like crazy. Last year Cooks hit that 75-85 range on only 117 targets. In the same target range as Jordan Mathews, Brandon LaFell, and Will Fuller.
As for the kind of routes being run? Well New England happens to run more double moves than any other team in the league. And Brandin Cooks last year happened to be BY FAR the best WR in the entire league at running routes with double moves.
I'm not saying he's some kind of lock to hit those numbers, but I also don't think it's some kind of pie in the sky. People looking for targets to move around from guys like Malcolm Mitchell are wasting their time. Edelman, White, Gronk. Everyone is going to see the ball less than they did before when there wasn't a target like Cooks on the outside.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Just want to point out that it isn't about how well Cooks runs the route tree. It's about how quickly he gets on the same page as Brady in New England's system, which has a lot of options and requires the QB and WRs to read them the same way consistently.
Maybe Cooks will be great at it, but it is not something he was required to do in New Orleans.
Maybe Cooks will be great at it, but it is not something he was required to do in New Orleans.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
All of these players were past the prime of their careers before NE acquired them for a song as their former teams already knew this.
Brandin Cooks was acquired for a 1st round pick and hasn't reached his second contract yet.the peak years of his career.
This comparison is like chairs to oranges its so far off.
If you think Bill traded a 1st round pick for Cooks but that Cooks cant fit well in their offense, that seems like a strange opinion to have.
Moss and Welker were both acquired through trades (less invested by the Partiots in these deals than Cooks) and they seem to have transitioned to the new offense just fine.
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Belichick has never been successful drafting WRs.
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/2/4/14443262/super-bowl-2017-patriots-wide-receivers-draft-biggest-weakness-tom-brady-julian-edelman
He also hasn't praised a WR like he did with Cooks prior to trading for him.http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000514930/article/bill-belichick-glad-we-dont-have-to-play-brandin-cooks
I expect the plan is in place to use him as much as possible considering the price paid and the fact he is a hard worker. He isn't a rookie, he knows his routes, he 'should' get his timing down and establish chemistry with Brady.
He could very easily break out and turn into something special.
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/2/4/14443262/super-bowl-2017-patriots-wide-receivers-draft-biggest-weakness-tom-brady-julian-edelman
He also has never used a 1st round pick on a WR or paid that high in a trade for a WR up until Brandin Cooks.
He also hasn't praised a WR like he did with Cooks prior to trading for him.http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000514930/article/bill-belichick-glad-we-dont-have-to-play-brandin-cooks
Cooks is different from the long list of mediocre WRs drafted by Belichick and Bill never had paid as much in a trade or had praised a WR as he did with Cooks.
I expect the plan is in place to use him as much as possible considering the price paid and the fact he is a hard worker. He isn't a rookie, he knows his routes, he 'should' get his timing down and establish chemistry with Brady.
He could very easily break out and turn into something special.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
Your first line is arguably another reason to temper expectations a little bit on Brandin Cooks. I'm not against the "pie in the sky" projections but people acting like he's a lock to hit at least 900 yards as a FLOOR... it's a little much.
People also knew that the Patriots liked to throw to the TEs. Anybody who watched them utilizing Daniel Graham and Ben Watson knew that and there was a ton of hype about the Patriots using 2 TE looks more, so what happened was expected. With that said: Year 1 - Both TEs had 40-45 catches. Year 2 - Gronk and Hernandez exploded but Randy Moss was off the team and Welker had 173 targets (and 174 in 2012). Year 3 - Injuries hit and both had 50-55 catches in 10/11 starts.
I don't care about last year's targets which is why I didn't reference them AT ALL. You seem to be throwing all your eggs into this Cooks basket expecting Edelman just to vanish down to 70-75 catches and Gronk to get hurt as usual (which is incredibly likely) while completely ignoring every other single player on the roster who can be expected to catch the ball.
From both a week to week and season to season basis, every time we think we have the New England offense figured out they change it. It's how they stay ahead of the rest of the league too.
I'm re-emphasizing that because the Patriots have a TON of receiving weapons and to overlook that is folly. If a team decides to double team Brandin Cooks, Brady isn't gonna be force feeding him to the tune of 10+ targets a game. He'll spread it around to the RBs and to other WRs. Just look at the Pittsburgh AFC Title Game - Chris Hogan and Super Bowl - James White & Danny Amendola. Brady will do what it takes to win. Brady was averaging just 36 pass attempts a game and a healthy Edelman/Gronk combo will be eating up about 17-20 of them a game.
When healthy, Edelman has seen at least 130+ targets and 150+ targets twice. When healthy, Gronk has seen 120-130 targets. That right there is 270-280 targets if both guys stay healthy all season.
Malcolm Mitchell is almost ensured to see a larger role. I see the Patriots rolling with: Mitchell and Edelman on the outside, Cooks as the Slot, and Amendola as the 4th WR with Gronk being in-line and split wide. The Patriots will also use 2 TE sets and Brady isn't afraid to use guys, Scott Chandler had 23 catches on 42 targets and he wasn't 1/2 the athlete that Dwayne Allen is.
Brady isn't the QB who throws it at a Drew Brees level volume so I can't see Cooks getting to 130-140 targets if Edelman and Gronk are healthy all year. That alone puts a cap on his ceiling. If guys are drafting Cooks as a WR1 at around the 10-12 spot, they are banking largely on him getting 130-140 targets which gives him about 86 catches if going by his 66-67% catch rate in NO.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
People are going to see what they want to see, so I am done trying to convince people that Cooks is coming in at the top of the food chain and not just added as a piece to the receiving corps. However, Cooks and Edelman were mainstays on the field in OTA's and minicamp with Mitchell and Hogan splitting time in 3 WR sets. Yes, the Pats have a lot of options in either the passing or running game, but NE has not shown a propensity for taking their best players off the field very often. I still think they will role out a trio of Cooks, Gronk, and Edelman the huge majority of the time and tinker with the other 2 skill players on the field with them based on down and distance, score, location on the field, opponent, mismatches, etc.
Edelman's target numbers have always been artificially inflated because much of the time Gronk and other receiving targets were injured, He's average about 10 targets a game, but IMO that does not account for injuries. I think he will see 7-8 a game if people stay healthy.
Over the years, NE has made changes and sometime yielded phenomenal results. Who saw Welker, Moss, Dillon, Gronk, Hernandez, etc. stepping in and doing as well as they did?
Edelman's target numbers have always been artificially inflated because much of the time Gronk and other receiving targets were injured, He's average about 10 targets a game, but IMO that does not account for injuries. I think he will see 7-8 a game if people stay healthy.
Over the years, NE has made changes and sometime yielded phenomenal results. Who saw Welker, Moss, Dillon, Gronk, Hernandez, etc. stepping in and doing as well as they did?
Stealthycat
Footballguy
know and understand this
if the Patriots can run 60 times a game and win, they'll do it
if they can feed the TE's to win, they'll do it
if it throwing 12 times a game to Cooks because he gives them the best chance to win, they'll do that too
I'm with the guys who say the Patriots gave up more than they normally do to get a WR they really didn't need - they did this for a reason. overlooking that is a mistake IMO and yes, he'll have a couple of ho hum games, so does Antonio Brown every year, so does Julio Jones.
I'm on the Cooks bandwagon
if the Patriots can run 60 times a game and win, they'll do it
if they can feed the TE's to win, they'll do it
if it throwing 12 times a game to Cooks because he gives them the best chance to win, they'll do that too
I'm with the guys who say the Patriots gave up more than they normally do to get a WR they really didn't need - they did this for a reason. overlooking that is a mistake IMO and yes, he'll have a couple of ho hum games, so does Antonio Brown every year, so does Julio Jones.
I'm on the Cooks bandwagon
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Uh, what? When Gronk/Hernandez were drafted Ben Watson was coming off 29 and 22 catch seasons the last two years. He never even had a season with 50 receptions in NE and Daniel Graham never even had 40. As rookies both Gronk AND Hernandez each had better years than Watson and Graham's career best in their entire time in New England. As ROOKIES. By their second year they were doubling and even tripling Watson/Graham's career best despite playing together while Watson/Graham had the TE position to themselves.
It was a completely 180 degree shift in the New England offense.
Here is the target share in 2009 the year before Gronk/Hernandez were drafted:
Welker: 162 (in 14 games)
Moss: 138
Watson: 41
This works both ways, right? How often are teams going to be double teaming Cooks with all those other weapons? Probably not often.
As to spreading it around, are we forgetting where he's coming from? NO ONE spreads the ball around like Brees. He led the NFL in attempts last year yet no receiver had more than 120 targets.
As I pointed out, this was all before Cooks came around. I don't expect them to get 280 targets between the two of them any more. Everyone else's targets will come down a little. When Gronk came to town Welker/Moss were getting 300+ targets between the two of them. Obviously Moss ended up moving on but barring one outlier season (where his per game target numbers were still down slightly and where three players still managed to hit that 80 catch mark, btw), Welker's target share went down to make room for the new guys.
Disagree on Mitchell. Like I said I expect everyone's targets to come down a little to make room for Cooks. Not just Edelman. Guys like Mitchell too.
Cooks doesn't necessarily need 140 targets. Last year he did 78-1173-8 on only 117 targets, and while Brees is certainly no chump it's not like the quality of targets is going to be going down. That's not even to mention that I don't believe Edelman/Gronk have ever completed a season where they were both healthy all year.
Also, Cooks ADP is early 3rd round so I have no idea what you are talking about with him being drafted in the 10-12 spot.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I would say this depends on where players line up and who is on the field. In any scenario in which Cooks lines up outside and Gronk is not on the field, if the defense double teams someone, it would seem likely to be Cooks. If Gronk is on the field, he could draw that double team.
If/when Cooks lines up in the slot, he would seem much less likely to be doubled.
Does anyone know if New England will line up Cooks or Edelman in the slot more often in 3 WR sets? That would be a factor here.
Boston
Footballguy
I said this before and it is very simple...when deciding on Cooks you should zero in on his talent...in the whole BB era he really has not under-utilized any offensive talent...if you are a stud like Moss, Dillon or Gronk he will find a way to get you numbers regardless of what past history says he will do...if you falter you will end up in the dustbin...there really isn't too much to analyze...if you think Cooks is the most talented WR they have had outside of Moss you are going to get big numbers...if you don't think he's a big time talent then you should pass on him...if you think he is somewhere in the middle then you do have some work to do so I guess you do need to analyze...
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
This is redonk. I suggest that NE's offense might be a tad more complex that NO's, that there may be more receiving competition in NE than in NO, and that therefore expecting him to duplicate prior catch count might be a tad optimistic, and I get jumped for dispensing perceived hatorade. Blackdot for February. Cheers!
shadrap
Footballguy
not from me. I like all the talk about Cooks I can get as I'm really undecided & at a 2nd rd pick price I like info & opinions.
cheers!
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not from anyone. He made a point, changed that point (several times), and people engaged him in rational discussion about those points (which is the entire purpose of this board). Then he took that as some kind of ticket to play some weird victim role where people actually discussing Cooks is them somehow attacking him for "perceived haterade", which was something that he made up all on his own.
Not sure what he's doing on a discussion forum if he finds people actually discussing a fantasy football player "getting jumped on".
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
Totally messed up the quoting, sorry FreeBagel :(
"Uh, what? When Gronk/Hernandez were drafted Ben Watson was coming off 29 and 22 catch seasons the last two years. He never even had a season with 50 receptions in NE and Daniel Graham never even had 40. As rookies both Gronk AND Hernandez each had better years than Watson and Graham's career best in their entire time in New England. As ROOKIES. By their second year they were doubling and even tripling Watson/Graham's career best despite playing together while Watson/Graham had the TE position to themselves.
It was a completely 180 degree shift in the New England offense.
Here is the target share in 2009 the year before Gronk/Hernandez were drafted:
Welker: 162 (in 14 games)
Moss: 138
Watson: 41"
Any fan following the Patriots at the time knew from training camp that Belichick was high on both Gronk/Hernandez and there was a lot of talk about the Patriots employing a lot more 2 TE sets to get them both on the field. I don't think anybody expected 50-55 catches each, as rookies, but it wasn't literally out of nowhere. People figured one of them would probably end up around the 45-50 catch mark and the other around 30-35 catches.
Again, Patriots fans saw the TEs utilized way before 2009. Watson had back to back seasons of 49 and 36 catches in 2006 & 2007... in only 13 and 12 games respectively. Pro Rate those out and you end up with 60 and 48 catches. Daniel Graham largely became an in-line blocker but had 38 catches in 2003 when the leading receiver had just 57 catches the entire year.
"This works both ways, right? How often are teams going to be double teaming Cooks with all those other weapons? Probably not often.
As to spreading it around, are we forgetting where he's coming from? NO ONE spreads the ball around like Brees. He led the NFL in attempts last year yet no receiver had more than 120 targets.."
It definitely works both ways but as a DC if given the option of double teaming one of Cooks or Edelman? I'd double team Cooks largely because he's the speed threat and more likely to burn you. Just the way it is.
Also the Saints system has absolutely no bearing on the Patriots style of play and how they integrate players into their gameplans on a weekly basis. With that said, Brady has proven that he'll take the open guy which is why I see Cooks being more of a big play week to week type. He may not flash the consistency of other options available at WR and at his ADP.
"Cooks doesn't necessarily need 140 targets. Last year he did 78-1173-8 on only 117 targets, and while Brees is certainly no chump it's not like the quality of targets is going to be going down. That's not even to mention that I don't believe Edelman/Gronk have ever completed a season where they were both healthy all year.
As I pointed out, this was all before Cooks came around. I don't expect them to get 280 targets between the two of them any more. Everyone else's targets will come down a little. When Gronk came to town Welker/Moss were getting 300+ targets between the two of them. Obviously Moss ended up moving on but barring one outlier season (where his per game target numbers were still down slightly and where three players still managed to hit that 80 catch mark, btw), Welker's target share went down to make room for the new guys.
Disagree on Mitchell. Like I said I expect everyone's targets to come down a little to make room for Cooks. Not just Edelman. Guys like Mitchell too."
I guess that's where I disagree. I can see targets coming down for Edelman and Gronkowski as well as say the RBs (James White saw 86 targets) but Mitchell was a 2nd Round Rookie WR last year with 32 catches on the season in a notoriously tough system. I just can't fathom New England not trying to utilize him more and resigning him to a Danny Amendola 20-25 catch level.
I think the fact that they also added Dwayne Allen at TE (to replace Martellus Bennett) and Rex Burkhead at RB (to replace Blount, who simply cannot catch) says a lot about what New England think of their talent as well. Neither guy was added to not contribute a fair amount.
I don't think either can stay healthy all year to be honest although I'd buy Edelman staying healthy far more than Gronk. With that said, I'm finding it hard to figure out where Cooks targets all come from to reach 120. I'll break it down and feel free to show me where you think I'm wrong
Rob Gronkowski: 100 Targets
Dwayne Allen: 46 Targets
Julian Edelman: 134 Targets
Brandin Cooks*: 106 Targets
Malcolm Mitchell: 62 Targets
James White: 64 Targets
Dion Lewis: 20 Targets
Rex Burkhead: 20 Targets
Danny Amendola: 18 Targets
Rough Guess Total = 570 Pass Attempts
2016 Patriots Total = 550 Pass Attempts
"Also, Cooks ADP is early 3rd round so I have no idea what you are talking about with him being drafted in the 10-12 spot."
I meant more WR 10-12 range. Most of FBG has him anywhere from 11 to 15, which is bordering on WR1 level for a 12 Team League and is definitely WR1 level for a 14 team league.
"Uh, what? When Gronk/Hernandez were drafted Ben Watson was coming off 29 and 22 catch seasons the last two years. He never even had a season with 50 receptions in NE and Daniel Graham never even had 40. As rookies both Gronk AND Hernandez each had better years than Watson and Graham's career best in their entire time in New England. As ROOKIES. By their second year they were doubling and even tripling Watson/Graham's career best despite playing together while Watson/Graham had the TE position to themselves.
It was a completely 180 degree shift in the New England offense.
Here is the target share in 2009 the year before Gronk/Hernandez were drafted:
Welker: 162 (in 14 games)
Moss: 138
Watson: 41"
Any fan following the Patriots at the time knew from training camp that Belichick was high on both Gronk/Hernandez and there was a lot of talk about the Patriots employing a lot more 2 TE sets to get them both on the field. I don't think anybody expected 50-55 catches each, as rookies, but it wasn't literally out of nowhere. People figured one of them would probably end up around the 45-50 catch mark and the other around 30-35 catches.
Again, Patriots fans saw the TEs utilized way before 2009. Watson had back to back seasons of 49 and 36 catches in 2006 & 2007... in only 13 and 12 games respectively. Pro Rate those out and you end up with 60 and 48 catches. Daniel Graham largely became an in-line blocker but had 38 catches in 2003 when the leading receiver had just 57 catches the entire year.
"This works both ways, right? How often are teams going to be double teaming Cooks with all those other weapons? Probably not often.
As to spreading it around, are we forgetting where he's coming from? NO ONE spreads the ball around like Brees. He led the NFL in attempts last year yet no receiver had more than 120 targets.."
It definitely works both ways but as a DC if given the option of double teaming one of Cooks or Edelman? I'd double team Cooks largely because he's the speed threat and more likely to burn you. Just the way it is.
Also the Saints system has absolutely no bearing on the Patriots style of play and how they integrate players into their gameplans on a weekly basis. With that said, Brady has proven that he'll take the open guy which is why I see Cooks being more of a big play week to week type. He may not flash the consistency of other options available at WR and at his ADP.
"Cooks doesn't necessarily need 140 targets. Last year he did 78-1173-8 on only 117 targets, and while Brees is certainly no chump it's not like the quality of targets is going to be going down. That's not even to mention that I don't believe Edelman/Gronk have ever completed a season where they were both healthy all year.
As I pointed out, this was all before Cooks came around. I don't expect them to get 280 targets between the two of them any more. Everyone else's targets will come down a little. When Gronk came to town Welker/Moss were getting 300+ targets between the two of them. Obviously Moss ended up moving on but barring one outlier season (where his per game target numbers were still down slightly and where three players still managed to hit that 80 catch mark, btw), Welker's target share went down to make room for the new guys.
Disagree on Mitchell. Like I said I expect everyone's targets to come down a little to make room for Cooks. Not just Edelman. Guys like Mitchell too."
I guess that's where I disagree. I can see targets coming down for Edelman and Gronkowski as well as say the RBs (James White saw 86 targets) but Mitchell was a 2nd Round Rookie WR last year with 32 catches on the season in a notoriously tough system. I just can't fathom New England not trying to utilize him more and resigning him to a Danny Amendola 20-25 catch level.
I think the fact that they also added Dwayne Allen at TE (to replace Martellus Bennett) and Rex Burkhead at RB (to replace Blount, who simply cannot catch) says a lot about what New England think of their talent as well. Neither guy was added to not contribute a fair amount.
I don't think either can stay healthy all year to be honest although I'd buy Edelman staying healthy far more than Gronk. With that said, I'm finding it hard to figure out where Cooks targets all come from to reach 120. I'll break it down and feel free to show me where you think I'm wrong
Rob Gronkowski: 100 Targets
Dwayne Allen: 46 Targets
Julian Edelman: 134 Targets
Brandin Cooks*: 106 Targets
Malcolm Mitchell: 62 Targets
James White: 64 Targets
Dion Lewis: 20 Targets
Rex Burkhead: 20 Targets
Danny Amendola: 18 Targets
Rough Guess Total = 570 Pass Attempts
2016 Patriots Total = 550 Pass Attempts
"Also, Cooks ADP is early 3rd round so I have no idea what you are talking about with him being drafted in the 10-12 spot."
I meant more WR 10-12 range. Most of FBG has him anywhere from 11 to 15, which is bordering on WR1 level for a 12 Team League and is definitely WR1 level for a 14 team league.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I don't see Edelman getting 134 targets. More like 95-110. If he stays healthy and doesn't get concussed.
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
My projections, and the averages from the past 5 seasons, are here.Totally messed up the quoting, sorry FreeBagel :(
"Uh, what? When Gronk/Hernandez were drafted Ben Watson was coming off 29 and 22 catch seasons the last two years. He never even had a season with 50 receptions in NE and Daniel Graham never even had 40. As rookies both Gronk AND Hernandez each had better years than Watson and Graham's career best in their entire time in New England. As ROOKIES. By their second year they were doubling and even tripling Watson/Graham's career best despite playing together while Watson/Graham had the TE position to themselves.
It was a completely 180 degree shift in the New England offense.
Here is the target share in 2009 the year before Gronk/Hernandez were drafted:
Welker: 162 (in 14 games)
Moss: 138
Watson: 41"
Any fan following the Patriots at the time knew from training camp that Belichick was high on both Gronk/Hernandez and there was a lot of talk about the Patriots employing a lot more 2 TE sets to get them both on the field. I don't think anybody expected 50-55 catches each, as rookies, but it wasn't literally out of nowhere. People figured one of them would probably end up around the 45-50 catch mark and the other around 30-35 catches.
Again, Patriots fans saw the TEs utilized way before 2009. Watson had back to back seasons of 49 and 36 catches in 2006 & 2007... in only 13 and 12 games respectively. Pro Rate those out and you end up with 60 and 48 catches. Daniel Graham largely became an in-line blocker but had 38 catches in 2003 when the leading receiver had just 57 catches the entire year.
"This works both ways, right? How often are teams going to be double teaming Cooks with all those other weapons? Probably not often.
As to spreading it around, are we forgetting where he's coming from? NO ONE spreads the ball around like Brees. He led the NFL in attempts last year yet no receiver had more than 120 targets.."
It definitely works both ways but as a DC if given the option of double teaming one of Cooks or Edelman? I'd double team Cooks largely because he's the speed threat and more likely to burn you. Just the way it is.
Also the Saints system has absolutely no bearing on the Patriots style of play and how they integrate players into their gameplans on a weekly basis. With that said, Brady has proven that he'll take the open guy which is why I see Cooks being more of a big play week to week type. He may not flash the consistency of other options available at WR and at his ADP.
"Cooks doesn't necessarily need 140 targets. Last year he did 78-1173-8 on only 117 targets, and while Brees is certainly no chump it's not like the quality of targets is going to be going down. That's not even to mention that I don't believe Edelman/Gronk have ever completed a season where they were both healthy all year.
As I pointed out, this was all before Cooks came around. I don't expect them to get 280 targets between the two of them any more. Everyone else's targets will come down a little. When Gronk came to town Welker/Moss were getting 300+ targets between the two of them. Obviously Moss ended up moving on but barring one outlier season (where his per game target numbers were still down slightly and where three players still managed to hit that 80 catch mark, btw), Welker's target share went down to make room for the new guys.
Disagree on Mitchell. Like I said I expect everyone's targets to come down a little to make room for Cooks. Not just Edelman. Guys like Mitchell too."
I guess that's where I disagree. I can see targets coming down for Edelman and Gronkowski as well as say the RBs (James White saw 86 targets) but Mitchell was a 2nd Round Rookie WR last year with 32 catches on the season in a notoriously tough system. I just can't fathom New England not trying to utilize him more and resigning him to a Danny Amendola 20-25 catch level.
I think the fact that they also added Dwayne Allen at TE (to replace Martellus Bennett) and Rex Burkhead at RB (to replace Blount, who simply cannot catch) says a lot about what New England think of their talent as well. Neither guy was added to not contribute a fair amount.
I don't think either can stay healthy all year to be honest although I'd buy Edelman staying healthy far more than Gronk. With that said, I'm finding it hard to figure out where Cooks targets all come from to reach 120. I'll break it down and feel free to show me where you think I'm wrong
Rob Gronkowski: 100 Targets
Dwayne Allen: 46 Targets
Julian Edelman: 134 Targets
Brandin Cooks*: 106 Targets
Malcolm Mitchell: 62 Targets
James White: 64 Targets
Dion Lewis: 20 Targets
Rex Burkhead: 20 Targets
Danny Amendola: 18 Targets
Rough Guess Total = 570 Pass Attempts
2016 Patriots Total = 550 Pass Attempts
"Also, Cooks ADP is early 3rd round so I have no idea what you are talking about with him being drafted in the 10-12 spot."
I meant more WR 10-12 range. Most of FBG has him anywhere from 11 to 15, which is bordering on WR1 level for a 12 Team League and is definitely WR1 level for a 14 team league.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
No worries on the quoting, the latest forum upgrade makes multi-nested quotes pretty much impossible.
Regarding the first paragraph, there's a pretty big difference between some preseason talk and actual history of grand usage. Belichick is high on Cooks too (he traded a 1st round pick for him after all), so I'm not sure why him being high on Gronk/Hernandez was a fair warning that they were going to get a lot of usage but the same thing isn't a fair warning that Cooks is going to as well.
Regarding the second paragraph, we're talking about usage on a massively different planet than Gronk/Hernandez were used. Career best mediocre usage surrounded by a bunch of years where they were total afterthoughts is hardly an omen for them running their entire offense through TEs for a few years that followed. Besides, again, we can just as easily say that the Patriots have a history of using a talented outside receiver. And they used that guy for a lot more than 48 and 38 catch career highs.
I think that's a reasonable worry. To be fair though the guys around him in ADP are Hopkins, Pryor, Demaryius, and Watkins so outside of Demaryius not really a group of guys that we're expecting to be the model of consistency.
I don't think either can stay healthy all year to be honest although I'd buy Edelman staying healthy far more than Gronk. With that said, I'm finding it hard to figure out where Cooks targets all come from to reach 120. I'll break it down and feel free to show me where you think I'm wrong
Rob Gronkowski: 100 Targets
Dwayne Allen: 46 Targets
Julian Edelman: 134 Targets
Brandin Cooks*: 106 Targets
Malcolm Mitchell: 62 Targets
James White: 64 Targets
Dion Lewis: 20 Targets
Rex Burkhead: 20 Targets
Danny Amendola: 18 Targets
Rough Guess Total = 570 Pass Attempts
2016 Patriots Total = 550 Pass Attempts
One of the things I mentioned when I jumped into this conversation is that I wasn't really looking to play the "divvy up the targets" game because a big part of the draw I see in Cooks is that New England has a propensity to entirely change their offense when they feel it is time to do so, which typically tends to line up with when they get an elite player. They pounded the run game when they got Dillon. They started feeding slot WRs when they got Welker. They integrated the outside WR when they got Moss. They started running things through the TEs when they got Gronk/Hernandez. Now Cooks joins that club and I think he belongs there, and as some others have pointed out they've never really underutilized a great talent.
If we had played this same target game the year Gronk/Hernandez were drafted we never could have possibly come up with a way for the two of them to catch 90 balls combined that season, yet it still happened. Sure the Moss injury helped but I don't think anyone saw the huge drop in targets for Welker, who's 16 game rate between those seasons basically saw his target total drop off by 55 (!!) targets after the TEs joined the team.
It's a good discussion. Ultimately I think my belief in the point about NE tailoring their offense to the talent they have rather than what they were doing the year before is where we end up heading down different paths in our rankings.
jtd13
Footballguy
5'10 189*
Other than spreading misinformation, I am not sure what the point of your post was. Not all top WRs are great red zone threats.
TripItUp
Footballguy
So to be clear, you don't understand the value of redzone targets to WRs going in the first three rounds?
Let me help you out. Cooks will not have the TDs to support his current redraft ADP.
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Thank you, Sensei. I have much to learn. Teach me, Sensei.
DawnBTVS
Footballguy
Enjoying the discussion as well. We all know that Cooks can blow the doors off slower CBs with deep routes so I thought this find was interesting...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-brandin-cooks-feasts-on-slower-corners
"Among all 51 receivers to record at least 250 targets over the past three seasons, Cooks ranks second-best in fantasy points per target (3.0) on deep routes (corner routes, post routes, and go routes). On all other routes, he ranks 20th-best (1.71.) This was the second-greatest differential among all receivers."
A lot of his route combos tend to make me think Cooks is more likely to line up in the Slot where he can feast against a team's 3rd CB/Nickel Back and/or beat out a slower Safety on those Corner and Post routes which would definitely be catering to his ability. Edelman was in the Slot for almost 54% of his snaps last year but he tends to run more Welker-esque routes there. If the Patriots use Cooks on the outside, I'd expect a ton of Go/Post routes with the hopes that Brady can manipulate the Safety or the Safety is forced to double an Edelman/Gronkowski/Allen threatening the seams.
I think where Cooks lines up will impact how he does fantasy wise. If he can get matched up inside against slower DBs, he can definitely hit the ceilings that FreeBagel and others are anticipating but if he's constantly going up against CB1s, I can see him being a bit more of an inconsistent boom/bust weekly fantasy player with some 115-125 yard games and some 35-45 yard games (think a slightly better Brandon Lloyd type year).
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-brandin-cooks-feasts-on-slower-corners
"Among all 51 receivers to record at least 250 targets over the past three seasons, Cooks ranks second-best in fantasy points per target (3.0) on deep routes (corner routes, post routes, and go routes). On all other routes, he ranks 20th-best (1.71.) This was the second-greatest differential among all receivers."
A lot of his route combos tend to make me think Cooks is more likely to line up in the Slot where he can feast against a team's 3rd CB/Nickel Back and/or beat out a slower Safety on those Corner and Post routes which would definitely be catering to his ability. Edelman was in the Slot for almost 54% of his snaps last year but he tends to run more Welker-esque routes there. If the Patriots use Cooks on the outside, I'd expect a ton of Go/Post routes with the hopes that Brady can manipulate the Safety or the Safety is forced to double an Edelman/Gronkowski/Allen threatening the seams.
I think where Cooks lines up will impact how he does fantasy wise. If he can get matched up inside against slower DBs, he can definitely hit the ceilings that FreeBagel and others are anticipating but if he's constantly going up against CB1s, I can see him being a bit more of an inconsistent boom/bust weekly fantasy player with some 115-125 yard games and some 35-45 yard games (think a slightly better Brandon Lloyd type year).
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Last year Edelman had 15 redzone targets, Malcolm Mitchell had 12, and Chris Hogan had 10. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to think that Cooks is going to get more than guys like Mitchell and Hogan did.TripItUp said:
Meanwhile the guys going in the same ADP range as Cooks are Hopkins, Pryor, Demaryius, and Watkins. Hopkins had 9, Pryor had 13, Demaryius had 18, and Watkins had 4 (in 8 games).
It's not ideal, but a lot of the guys in that range are seeing similar targets in the redzone. And again, that's assuming that NE doesn't use stud Cooks there more often than they used meh Mitchell and meh Hogan. Cooks for his career also has a (significantly) higher conversion rate on those redzone targets than any of the guys I just mentioned do.
The size thing is fairly moot in today's NFL. 2 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10 in the NFL in receiving TDs last year were under 6' tall. The year before 2 of the top 5 and 5 of the top 10 were under 6'. Antonio Brown is catching touchdowns left and right while Julio Jones is an afterthought in the redzone. Emmanuel Sanders had more redzone targets than Mike Evans last year.
ETA: Since Gronk was out a lot of last year I pulled the 2015 redzone stats as well to get an idea while he was around. Still that year Edelman had 16 RZ targets and Amendola had 11. So there are enough to go around. The Patriots are in the redzone a lot.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Cooks was the talk of camp today and was turning heads. The Pats had joint practice with the Jaguars today, and Cooks made several big plays. They discussed more on the radio than online, but here is a recap: LINK
Cooks was said to have caught bombs from both Brady and Jimmy G., and members of the Jags secondary mentioned they couldn't cover Cooks and he still beat coverage when double covered.
Granted, it's the Jags, it's a scrimmage, and it's early. But Cooks is going to end up being a weapon . . . possibly with Gronk as 1A and 1B in the offense. If Cooks can stay healthy, he will improve the Pats offense tremendously, opening up running lanes, underneath routes, and dump offs for backs out of the backfield. Then Cooks will make a double move and be gone over the top.
The unstoppable offense talk will be coming soon if it hasn't started already.
Cooks was said to have caught bombs from both Brady and Jimmy G., and members of the Jags secondary mentioned they couldn't cover Cooks and he still beat coverage when double covered.
Granted, it's the Jags, it's a scrimmage, and it's early. But Cooks is going to end up being a weapon . . . possibly with Gronk as 1A and 1B in the offense. If Cooks can stay healthy, he will improve the Pats offense tremendously, opening up running lanes, underneath routes, and dump offs for backs out of the backfield. Then Cooks will make a double move and be gone over the top.
The unstoppable offense talk will be coming soon if it hasn't started already.
Rodeojones
Footballguy
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Tanner9919
Footballguy
we're summarily dismissing the nearly 100% probability tat either Gronk, or Edelman, or BOTH, get hurt this year ( like always) and spend significant amounts of time on the sideline.
if,and ONLY if we're talking that Gronk and Edelman CAN and WILL stay healthy at the same time, then yes, Cooks may not get the numbers.
I'm betting the farm that neither Gronk or Edelman can hold serve and stay healthy all year..especially Gronk and his incentive laiden contract..which brings up another thing, did NE snooker him with that contract knowing he won't last a season healthy?
Today's practice with the Jags was just the start or a good thing..
if,and ONLY if we're talking that Gronk and Edelman CAN and WILL stay healthy at the same time, then yes, Cooks may not get the numbers.
I'm betting the farm that neither Gronk or Edelman can hold serve and stay healthy all year..especially Gronk and his incentive laiden contract..which brings up another thing, did NE snooker him with that contract knowing he won't last a season healthy?
Today's practice with the Jags was just the start or a good thing..
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Sebowski
Footballguy
need2know
Footballguy
ponchsox
Footballguy
He's going to be a second round pick for sure.Was really hoping to get him as my wr2 in round 3 but that's looking bleak.
need2know
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
They actually restructured his current contract so there was no "snookering"...
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2655111-rob-gronkowski-new-england-patriots-restructure-contract
