WR Calvin Johnson and his Dynasty Value (1 Viewer)

[ILoveMyLions]

Assuming Calvin Johnson leaves Georgia Tech a year early and goes like expected in the top 5-8 picks, I'm beginning to worry about the where he ends up. At this point, I have targeted him as my main priority in the draft being that I think he's one of the best WR prospects in the past ten years. Having said that, WR is the most dependent position in the NFL. They are only able to be an WR if the team has a QB to throw the ball, a running game to keep them honest and an O-Line to buy the QB time for the WR to get downfield. The teams picking at the top of round 1 that may take the stud WR could be a detriment to his young career as they are obviously deficient in many of these areas. So, I began to look at the teams at the top of round 1 and analyze their situation.

1. Detroit - (Insert WR Draft Joke here). I don't see the Lions taking a WR, even if Millen is still running the team

2. Oakland - This one scares me. I could see the Raiders taking Johnson, especially if Porter and Moss both leave due to their troubles. Oakland perhaps has the worst O-Line in football and their QBs are less than desireable. If Johnson goes here, I think we have to knock him down in terms of value and expectations. In fact, if he goes to OAK, I'd consider moving Jarrett or Ginn above him depending on where they end up.

3. Cleveland - The Browns could take another WR, but it's more likely that they go QB, OT or DL with this pick. But, they could go with a WR to go opposite Braylon. They have O-Line and QB issues of their own, but it wouldn't be as bad as in OAK.

4. Tampa Bay - This is a definte possibility and would be a good fit. Simms seems on his way to resigning, they have a young back in Caddy, and a vet WR in Galloway as well as fourth year guy Clayton. Gruden can be somewhat conservative as we've seen, but he's opened it up as well in the past. They have had major problems on the O-Line this year, but I think it could be fixed with adding a piece or two.

5. Arizona - Will likely not be taking a WR a this point

6. Houston - Will likely not be taking a WR a this point

7. Washington - This is another team that could be looking at WR. Moss is a top WR and Randle El and Givens are solid but not spectacular. It is likely that they would not take Johnson, but could take him if he were on the board this late and they felt he was BPA.

8. Minnesoata - It is unlikely that he would fall this far; but if he did the Vikings would jump at the chance to take him. However, they could also go QB here as well. Williamson appears to on his way of being a bust, and no other WRs have really come into their own. The O-Line is great in Minnesota, but the QB situation is a little murky. Jackson is very raw and is a questionable passer to say the least at this point. Johnson has likely has his last year of starting but could be the backup. This would not be a great fit unless the QB problems were solved.

I see Oakland the worst possible scenario for Calvin Johnson to land. Ideally from those teams listed above, if he went to Tampa Bay and Minnesota, that may provide him with the best opportunity.

As many of us look at trades for picks and position ourselves for the draft this offseason, any thoughts and insight into this topic would be appreciated.

 

[Pauli Walnuts]

I'm with you on the Oakland scenario. I have the 1.03 pick in our rookie draft and currently see CJ as the best option with that pick. If CJ ends up in Oakland I will have serious reservations about drafting him there and will probably try to deal the pick.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Calvin Johnson's situation can not possibly be any worse than another talented Johnson, Andre. He has been at least an adequate WR2 for most of his career, and we all see that he could be a WR1 in an efficient offense. I'll find it almost impossible to put any other rookie WR ahead of Calvin, even if he ends up in Oakland (I agree that its one of his most likely destinations). Johnson should debut somewhere in the mid 20s at worst in dynasty rankings. I'd take him right around where Braylon Edwards is going in initial dynasty drafts with rooks and vets mixed.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Calvin Johnson's situation can not possibly be any worse than another talented Johnson, Andre. He has been at least an adequate WR2 for most of his career, and we all see that he could be a WR1 in an efficient offense. I'll find it almost impossible to put any other rookie WR ahead of Calvin, even if he ends up in Oakland (I agree that its one of his most likely destinations). Johnson should debut somewhere in the mid 20s at worst in dynasty rankings. I'd take him right around where Braylon Edwards is going in initial dynasty drafts with rooks and vets mixed.

Two things...1) I don't see Houston taking a WR due to their QB, O-Line and RB problems. Do you think they'd take CJ?2) Aren't you concerned about the OAK situation enough to move a guy like Jarrett ahead of him if he ends up in KC or Tennessee? Personally, I'd consider it...

 

[aposulli]

Tampa Bay, lock it up.

And it's a great fit.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Calvin Johnson's situation can not possibly be any worse than another talented Johnson, Andre. He has been at least an adequate WR2 for most of his career, and we all see that he could be a WR1 in an efficient offense. I'll find it almost impossible to put any other rookie WR ahead of Calvin, even if he ends up in Oakland (I agree that its one of his most likely destinations). Johnson should debut somewhere in the mid 20s at worst in dynasty rankings. I'd take him right around where Braylon Edwards is going in initial dynasty drafts with rooks and vets mixed.

Two things...1) I don't see Houston taking a WR due to their QB, O-Line and RB problems. Do you think they'd take CJ?2) Aren't you concerned about the OAK situation enough to move a guy like Jarrett ahead of him if he ends up in KC or Tennessee? Personally, I'd consider it...

1) Im not saying Houston will take Calvin, I'm saying that Andre Johnson is a good example of a talented WR mired in a bad offense, and that will be Calvin's floor (keeping in mind to compare apples to apples - Calvin's year one to Andre's, not Calvin's year one to Andre's year 4) unless he has some sort of undoing from the inside like Charles Rogers. 2) Refer back to point 1. Calvin is going to be seen as a future #1 target no matter where he goes. I can't see Jarrett or Ginn's situation being so plum to vault them ahead of Calvin, because Calvin is on entirely different level than those two when it comes to talent.

 

[Kleck.]

Calvin Johnson's situation can not possibly be any worse than another talented Johnson, Andre. He has been at least an adequate WR2 for most of his career, and we all see that he could be a WR1 in an efficient offense. I'll find it almost impossible to put any other rookie WR ahead of Calvin, even if he ends up in Oakland (I agree that its one of his most likely destinations). Johnson should debut somewhere in the mid 20s at worst in dynasty rankings. I'd take him right around where Braylon Edwards is going in initial dynasty drafts with rooks and vets mixed.

I had a similar thought about the Andre Johnson comparison. Calvin is the best talent of the WRs, and no matter wherte he ends up he'll likely remain my #1 WR.

 

[Otis]

Good topic and good analysis. Although I don't think I pass up on Johnson at 1.2 or 1.3 in dynasty drafts, even in Oakland.

 

[Marc Faletti]

Even if Calvin Johnson goes to Oakland, so what?

How long will Shell get, maybe another year? And they may go out and get a guy like Leftwich this offseason at QB.

In today's league, a team can be remade overnight, and by 2008, I expect you'll see a new coach and better QB than this season's abomination.

If you're in a real dynasty league you expect to last, Calvin Johnson is a stud. Look at the man and his abilities. Even if it takes a year or two for the team to straighten out around him, a guy like Johnson should (barring injury) have a hard time _not_ contributing. Bloom's point about Andre Johnson is a great comparison as a floor for Calvin Johnson.

 

[QUEZILLA]

Tampa Bay, lock it up.And it's a great fit.

I want him in red & pewter BAD!!!

 

[Otis]

Tampa Bay, lock it up.And it's a great fit.

I want him in red & pewter BAD!!!

I agree it would be a great fit. That offense could use another playmaker (and some Oline help)

 

[pacman_fl]

Even if Calvin Johnson goes to Oakland, so what? How long will Shell get, maybe another year? And they may go out and get a guy like Leftwich this offseason at QB. In today's league, a team can be remade overnight, and by 2008, I expect you'll see a new coach and better QB than this season's abomination. If you're in a real dynasty league you expect to last, Calvin Johnson is a stud. Look at the man and his abilities. Even if it takes a year or two for the team to straighten out around him, a guy like Johnson should (barring injury) have a hard time _not_ contributing. Bloom's point about Andre Johnson is a great comparison as a floor for Calvin Johnson.

Talent wins in dynasty. The league changes too fast. Just a year ago Jordan was a top 10 back and Moss was headed that way early in the year.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Assuming Calvin Johnson leaves Georgia Tech a year early and goes like expected in the top 5-8 picks, I'm beginning to worry about the where he ends up. At this point, I have targeted him as my main priority in the draft being that I think he's one of the best WR prospects in the past ten years. Having said that, WR is the most dependent position in the NFL. They are only able to be an WR if the team has a QB to throw the ball, a running game to keep them honest and an O-Line to buy the QB time for the WR to get downfield. The teams picking at the top of round 1 that may take the stud WR could be a detriment to his young career as they are obviously deficient in many of these areas. So, I began to look at the teams at the top of round 1 and analyze their situation.

While I think that this is a very , I wanted to highlight something above.Fitzgerald and Boldin have been solid #1 WRs the past few years with virtually no running game.

Teams that fall behind and have to throw, throw, and throw some more are fantasy gold. Just sayin'.

Tampa Bay or Minnesota are likely homes for Calvin.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

[Fitzgerald and Boldin have been solid #1 WRs the past few years with virtually no running game.Teams that fall behind and have to throw, throw, and throw some more are fantasy gold. Just sayin'.

Good point on the running game. Perhaps that is the exception though because they have two elite WRs there, you can't double both of them. I can't think of any other teams that have had the two elite WRs with no running game. Can you?You do make a great point about the defense, but that goes to the overall philosophy of the team. The Rams, Chiefs, the Bengals and Colts have been good examples of that over the last 7 to 8 years. This could be somewhat of another strike agasint OAK as they seem to be putting together a defense.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

1) Im not saying Houston will take Calvin, I'm saying that Andre Johnson is a good example of a talented WR mired in a bad offense, and that will be Calvin's floor (keeping in mind to compare apples to apples - Calvin's year one to Andre's, not Calvin's year one to Andre's year 4) unless he has some sort of undoing from the inside like Charles Rogers.

Sorry I misunderstood your previous post on Andre Johnson. If Andre Johnson is the floor, that is some pretty hefty expectations. I would still be hesistant if he went to OAK.

 

[EBF]

I don't think it matters much. Think back to Larry Fitzgerald and Roy Williams. At the time, Arizona and Detroit looked like awful situations for those two. Arizona already had a hotshot WR (Boldin) and one of the worst QB groups in the NFL. Detroit had Charles Rogers, who everyone was still high on, and another awful group of QBs. Fast forward a couple years and both guys are producing nice numbers regardless of where they landed.

When it comes to players this good, you should generally draft the player and not the situation. The recent success of guys like Fitzgerald, Maurice Drew, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Reggie Bush, and Roy Williams provides further evidence that a great player doesn't need an ideal situation in order to eventually yield big dividends.

In a dynasty draft, you have to think about more than one year. It might take Johnson's career a while to get off the ground, but I think he's the best skill position prospect in the draft. He shouldn't fall out of the top 3-4 picks in any rookie drafts.

 

[EBF]

I won't bump Johnson down in my rankings at all if he goes to Oakland. It's not the least bit difficult to conceive of a scenario where he quickly becomes a stud in Oakland:

1. Raiders draft Calvin Johnson

2. Raiders cut or trade Randy Moss

3. Raiders sign a QB like Matt Schaub or draft a QB like Erik Ainge or Brian Brohm

Suddenly Johnson is in a decent situation to produce.

Even if the Raiders keep Moss, there should be plenty to go around.

 

[coolnerd]

1) Im not saying Houston will take Calvin, I'm saying that Andre Johnson is a good example of a talented WR mired in a bad offense, and that will be Calvin's floor (keeping in mind to compare apples to apples - Calvin's year one to Andre's, not Calvin's year one to Andre's year 4) unless he has some sort of undoing from the inside like Charles Rogers.

Sorry I misunderstood your previous post on Andre Johnson. If Andre Johnson is the floor, that is some pretty hefty expectations. I would still be hesistant if he went to OAK.

The pre-Andre Johnson situation in Houston may have been worse. A conservative offense with an unproven QB, no running game (pre Dom Davis), that had just had a historical year in the number of sacks on one QB. There actually is less wrong in Oakland than 2003 Houston (hard to believe) and I think personally think that Calvin Johnson is more talented and seems to have the same sort of character as Andre.

 

[KarmaPolice]

ALWAYS draft on talent for dynasty leagues. I don't care where he ends up, CJ shouldn't be around at the 1.4 for many drafts.

 

[walkwithme]

I think his worst possible scenario is to fall to Cleveland. Bad OL, DL, DB average QB and he will most likely be a second or third option behind B. Edwards and KWII for a couple years. I don't know if this offense is good enough to have a consisently productive 2nd receiving option.

 

[PatsWillWin]

I'd like to hear some opinions on this from anyone who's interested in commenting: How close to Johnson was Braylon was a prospect coming out of college?

 

[EBF]

I'd like to hear some opinions on this from anyone who's interested in commenting: How close to Johnson was Braylon was a prospect coming out of college?

Not very. Edwards is probably a bit quicker and faster, but Johnson has better hands and coordination. Johnson is a lot like Fitzgerald, who was more highly-regarded than Edwards. Edwards was considered a fringe first round pick until his huge senior year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I'd like to hear some opinions on this from anyone who's interested in commenting: How close to Johnson was Braylon was a prospect coming out of college?

Not very. Edwards is probably a bit quicker and faster, but Johnson has better hands and coordination. Johnson is a lot like Fitzgerald, who was more highly-regarded than Edwards. Edwards was considered a fringe first round pick until his huge senior year.

If you're looking for recent compares on the magnitude of prospect that Calvin Johnson is, the list begins and ends with Larry Fitzgerald.

 

[-OZ-]

Calvin Johnson's situation can not possibly be any worse than another talented Johnson, Andre. He has been at least an adequate WR2 for most of his career, and we all see that he could be a WR1 in an efficient offense. I'll find it almost impossible to put any other rookie WR ahead of Calvin, even if he ends up in Oakland (I agree that its one of his most likely destinations). Johnson should debut somewhere in the mid 20s at worst in dynasty rankings. I'd take him right around where Braylon Edwards is going in initial dynasty drafts with rooks and vets mixed.

I'll agree with this placement, although I'd rank both in the late teens. The CJ/Fitz comparison is closest, ability wise.

 

[JayMan]

Great post... great analysis so far...

I also am forutante enough to have the 1.03 draft pick in next year's [DYNASTY] draft (through a tade - not that bad of a coach! )... and I'm trying to find as much information on this...

I have seen a few trying to draw comparisons to still-young WRs studs and the situation they are in... and it's why I want to look at another angle...

I have looked at the last 5 drafts... and would want to know where you would rank Calvin Jonhson based on talent alone compared to the latest 1st rounders to have enjoyed success at the NFL level...

'06: Santonio Holmes

'05: Braylon Edwards / Matt Jones / Mark Clayton

'04: Larry Fitzgerald / Roy Williams / Lee Evans

'03: Andre Johnson

'02: Donte' Stallworth / Javon Walker

 

[JMon348]

Great post... great analysis so far...

I also am forutante enough to have the 1.03 draft pick in next year's [DYNASTY] draft (through a tade - not that bad of a coach! )... and I'm trying to find as much information on this...

I have seen a few trying to draw comparisons to still-young WRs studs and the situation they are in... and it's why I want to look at another angle...

I have looked at the last 5 drafts... and would want to know where you would rank Calvin Jonhson based on talent alone compared to the latest 1st rounders to have enjoyed success at the NFL level...

'06: Santonio Holmes

'05: Braylon Edwards / Matt Jones / Mark Clayton

'04: Larry Fitzgerald / Roy Williams / Lee Evans

'03: Andre Johnson

'02: Donte' Stallworth / Javon Walker

1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson

3. Roy Williams

4. Andre Johnson

5. Braylon Edwards

6. Javon Walker

7. Mark Clayton

8. Matt Jones

9. Lee Evans

10. Donte Stallworth

11. Santonio Holmes

 

[Otis]

1. Larry Fitzgerald2. Calvin Johnson3. Roy Williams4. Andre Johnson5. Braylon Edwards6. Javon Walker7. Mark Clayton8. Matt Jones9. Lee Evans10. Donte Stallworth11. Santonio Holmes

Not a bad ranking, though some are saying he is a bigger, faster, more athletic version of Fitzgerald, which is sort of scary.In any event, I think all that matters is he fits somewhere in the top teir of recent rookie WRs along with Fitzgerals, Roy Williams, and Andre Johnson. That's enough for me.

 

[Otis]

Interesting side question -- someone above noted they are looking at him with the 1.3 pick in dynaty drafts.

Through some trades this year I acquired 1.3 and 1.4, and I'm also probably going to go with him at 1.3. However, my question is this -- can we even just assume he will be there at 1.3? Is he worth trading UP for from there?

Seems to me we are all assuming Peterson and Lynch are a lock and 1 and 2. Is that right? If so, is there a chance people will be taking him at 2 over Lynch in many drafts, or was Lynch generally good enough this year to solidify that spot?

I figure this is an important part of the conversation for those of us lining up for CJ2.

 

[JayMan]

Interesting side question -- someone above noted they are looking at him with the 1.3 pick in dynaty drafts.Through some trades this year I acquired 1.3 and 1.4, and I'm also probably going to go with him at 1.3. However, my question is this -- can we even just assume he will be there at 1.3? Is he worth trading UP for from there?Seems to me we are all assuming Peterson and Lynch are a lock and 1 and 2. Is that right? If so, is there a chance people will be taking him at 2 over Lynch in many drafts, or was Lynch generally good enough this year to solidify that spot?I figure this is an important part of the conversation for those of us lining up for CJ2.

That's exactly the situation I'm in... (from the previous post) - I have acquired the "hypothetical 1.03" pick... I'm saying hypothetical because it is a lottery... where my chances are:20%: 1.01;20%: 1.02;40%: 1.03;20%: 1.04.From this, If I'm lucky enough to get the 1.01 - I'm looking at Peterson... but if I get the 1.02, I'm still not decided on Lynch or Johnson (keep in mind it's a ppr league where only the WR and TE gets the ppr) - and I think I would opt for Calvin with that setup... if I get the 1.03 - I'll get the one that is still there (rooting for Calvin to be there)... and I'll be very pissed if I get the 1.04 - where Jarrett and Ginn are the frontrunners - so far (but it's a big drop in my opinion)...

 

[juveduke]

1. Larry Fitzgerald

2. Calvin Johnson

3. Roy Williams

4. Andre Johnson

5. Braylon Edwards

6. Javon Walker

7. Mark Clayton

8. Matt Jones

9. Lee Evans

10. Donte Stallworth

11. Santonio Holmes

Not a bad ranking, though some are saying he is a bigger, faster, more athletic version of Fitzgerald, which is sort of scary.In any event, I think all that matters is he fits somewhere in the top teir of recent rookie WRs along with Fitzgerals, Roy Williams, and Andre Johnson. That's enough for me.

Combine numbers for Fitz: 6-3 | 221 | 4.47 | 35"What I gathered for Johnson: 6-5 | 235 | 4.4 | 45"

Wiki page

 

[EBF]

Take this with a grain of salt, but Johnson's vertical leap allegedly might closer to 50 inches. The reason it's listed at 45 is because that was the maximum value possible with the equipment that he was tested on. This sounds like it might be BS, but it's what I heard.

As for the question about 1.03, I'd say it all depends on your league setup. In a RB-heavy non-PPR league like a Misfits or Zealots league, Lynch and Peterson should go 1-2. You might even be able to make a case for a guy like Kenny Irons over Johnson IF Irons lands in a great situation. It would be a bad long-term pick, but mediocre RBs score more than elite WRs in some leagues.

It's a different story in a PPR. I'd say Johnson warrants serious consideration at 1.01. I wouldn't bat an eyelash if someone took him over Peterson. In fact, I'd probably say it's a good pick. To a certain degree, it's a matter of philosophy. Would you rather have Steven Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald? That's how I see things this year.

I actually have 1.01 in one of my leagues and I think the decision will come down to Lynch, Peterson, and Johnson. We'll see how things fall on draft day.

 

[elpasotexan]

In a PPR league where I have the 1.01 and 1.02, I'm at a loss for whom to choose of the top three. I think where they end up will make a difference.

 

[EBF]

In a PPR league where I have the 1.01 and 1.02, I'm at a loss for whom to choose of the top three. I think where they end up will make a difference.

Definitely. I also think people are going to be surprised by how high Marshawn Lynch goes on draft day. He has a chance to go in the top 15 and probably won't slip past the two New York teams.

 

[Kleck.]

It's a different story in a PPR. I'd say Johnson warrants serious consideration at 1.01. I wouldn't bat an eyelash if someone took him over Peterson. In fact, I'd probably say it's a good pick. To a certain degree, it's a matter of philosophy. Would you rather have Steven Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald? That's how I see things this year.

Steven Jackson. I understand your point, but Jackson is coming off a 2100+ yard, 12 TD and 88 catch season. PPR Gold right there.

 

[Kleck.]

In a PPR league where I have the 1.01 and 1.02, I'm at a loss for whom to choose of the top three. I think where they end up will make a difference.

Definitely. I also think people are going to be surprised by how high Marshawn Lynch goes on draft day. He has a chance to go in the top 15 and probably won't slip past the two New York teams.

I wouldn't be shocked if he goes top 10. I love me some Lynch.

 

[elpasotexan]

Is Lynch a MUCH better pass catching RB than Petersen? Lynch is the only of the big three I did not see regularly. In fact, I only saw Lynch in one game - against Tennesse - in which he looked rather pedestrian. Calvin Johnson, on the other hand, always seemed to be a man among boys.

 

[EBF]

It's a different story in a PPR. I'd say Johnson warrants serious consideration at 1.01. I wouldn't bat an eyelash if someone took him over Peterson. In fact, I'd probably say it's a good pick. To a certain degree, it's a matter of philosophy. Would you rather have Steven Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald? That's how I see things this year.

Steven Jackson. I understand your point, but Jackson is coming off a 2100+ yard, 12 TD and 88 catch season. PPR Gold right there.

A few things: 1. That's only one season. Who knows where their values will be in 2010? (Could be a Marvin Harrison vs. Eddie George type deal)2. The kind of season Jackson had is probably a best case scenario for Peterson. 3. Peterson isn't considered a great receiver.

 

[EBF]

Is Lynch a MUCH better pass catching RB than Petersen? Lynch is the only of the big three I did not see regularly. In fact, I only saw Lynch in one game - against Tennesse - in which he looked rather pedestrian. Calvin Johnson, on the other hand, always seemed to be a man among boys.

Lynch is definitely considered the better receiver right now, but it's not like he's the second coming of Reggie Bush. A RB's catches seem to be determined largely by the system that he's in. Kevin Jones was never considered a very good receiver until this year. All things being equal, Lynch has a marked advantage over Peterson as a pass catcher, but that could change at the next level. If you're not very familiar with Lynch then here's a nice fact for you: He hasn't averaged under 4.0 YPC in a game in more than two years. That's sick.

Here are some highlights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agiNBv_cl5o

Pretty good stuff. No Reggie Bush "wow" type plays, but he's solid. Reminds me a bit of Thomas Jones.

 

[Biabreakable]

Is Lynch a MUCH better pass catching RB than Petersen? Lynch is the only of the big three I did not see regularly. In fact, I only saw Lynch in one game - against Tennesse - in which he looked rather pedestrian. Calvin Johnson, on the other hand, always seemed to be a man among boys.

Lynch is definitely considered the better receiver right now, but it's not like he's the second coming of Reggie Bush. A RB's catches seem to be determined largely by the system that he's in. Kevin Jones was never considered a very good receiver until this year. All things being equal, Lynch has a marked advantage over Peterson as a pass catcher, but that could change at the next level. If you're not very familiar with Lynch then here's a nice fact for you: He hasn't averaged under 4.0 YPC in a game in more than two years. That's sick.

Here are some highlights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agiNBv_cl5o

Pretty good stuff. No Reggie Bush "wow" type plays, but he's solid. Reminds me a bit of Thomas Jones.

Thanks for posting this EBFI see a bit of stiffness in the way he runs and in his cuts. He jerks and loses a bit of speed when he cuts.

He has a good amount of speed and burst and runs with some good power when defenders make contact.

There are several times he jumps out of shoestring tackles.. that is just poor tackling.

ETA- The highest pick I have managed to aquire through trades from this season has ended up being 1.4

It looks like I am on the outside looking in at these 3 prospects. I wonder what kind of options I should be looking at after the big 3? BPA always.

 

[Otis]

Combine numbers for Fitz: 6-3 | 221 | 4.47 | 35"

What I gathered for Johnson: 6-5 | 235 | 4.4 | 45"

Wiki page

That's sick.

 

[-OZ-]

In a PPR league where I have the 1.01 and 1.02, I'm at a loss for whom to choose of the top three. I think where they end up will make a difference.

Definitely. I also think people are going to be surprised by how high Marshawn Lynch goes on draft day. He has a chance to go in the top 15 and probably won't slip past the two New York teams.

I actually never thought about it, but while it's impossible to call anyone the next Tiki, Lynch has many of the same attributes. I still like him with the Jets more, but either NY team would be good.

 

[Tau837]

I'm curious why everyone is comparing Johnson only to successful NFL WRs. For example, how does he grade out compared to Charles Rogers?

Also, consider the 25 first round WRs drafted between 2001 and 2005 (for some reason, the nfl.com page stops at 2005):

2001

1.8 David Terrell WR Michigan

1.9 Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State

1.15 Rod Gardner WR Clemson

1.16 Santana Moss WR Miami

1.25 Freddie Mitchell WR UCLA

1.30 Reggie Wayne WR Miami

2002

1.13 Donte' Stallworth WR Tennessee

1.19 Ashley Lelie WR Hawaii

1.20 Javon Walker WR Florida State

2003

1.2 Charles Rogers WR Michigan State

1.3 Andre Johnson WR Miami

1.17 Bryant Johnson WR Penn State

2004

1.3 Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh

1.7 Roy Williams WR Texas

1.9 Reggie Williams WR Washington

1.13 Lee Evans WR Wisconsin

1.15 Michael Clayton WR Louisiana State

1.29 Michael Jenkins WR Ohio State

2005

1 3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan

1 7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina

1 10 Mike Williams WR Southern California

1 21 Matt Jones WR Arkansas

1 22 Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma

1 27 Roddy White WR Ala.-Birmingham

At best, 9 of the 25 look like good picks thus far. I realize that Johnson will grade out higher than most, if not all, of them... but I'm surprised that everyone is so high on him with no reservations. It's about more than physical skills... how is his work ethic? how is his maturity? etc. (I ask this because I don't know, not because I'm suggesting these things are weaknesses.)

 

[EBF]

I'm curious why everyone is comparing Johnson only to successful NFL WRs. For example, how does he grade out compared to Charles Rogers?

Also, consider the 25 first round WRs drafted between 2001 and 2005 (for some reason, the nfl.com page stops at 2005):

2001

1.8 David Terrell WR Michigan

1.9 Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State

1.15 Rod Gardner WR Clemson

1.16 Santana Moss WR Miami

1.25 Freddie Mitchell WR UCLA

1.30 Reggie Wayne WR Miami

2002

1.13 Donte' Stallworth WR Tennessee

1.19 Ashley Lelie WR Hawaii

1.20 Javon Walker WR Florida State

2003

1.2 Charles Rogers WR Michigan State

1.3 Andre Johnson WR Miami

1.17 Bryant Johnson WR Penn State

2004

1.3 Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh

1.7 Roy Williams WR Texas

1.9 Reggie Williams WR Washington

1.13 Lee Evans WR Wisconsin

1.15 Michael Clayton WR Louisiana State

1.29 Michael Jenkins WR Ohio State

2005

1 3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan

1 7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina

1 10 Mike Williams WR Southern California

1 21 Matt Jones WR Arkansas

1 22 Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma

1 27 Roddy White WR Ala.-Birmingham

At best, 9 of the 25 look like good picks thus far. I realize that Johnson will grade out higher than most, if not all, of them... but I'm surprised that everyone is so high on him with no reservations. It's about more than physical skills... how is his work ethic? how is his maturity? etc. (I ask this because I don't know, not because I'm suggesting these things are weaknesses.)

Why are we all excited about him? Because he's that good. The majority of the players listed above didn't have the same lofty billing that Johnson has. Of the ones who were close, only Terrell and Rogers busted. Terrell's failure was probably due to a combination of insufficient talent and poor character. In my opinion, Rogers was strictly a character bust. He was tremendously talented.

As for your question, CJ2 is pretty much a model citizen by all accounts.

Every year I tab one or two players as can't miss. Calvin Johnson is can't miss. He won't bust unless he gets injured. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I realize that Johnson will grade out higher than most, if not all, of them... but I'm surprised that everyone is so high on him with no reservations. It's about more than physical skills... how is his work ethic? how is his maturity? etc. (I ask this because I don't know, not because I'm suggesting these things are weaknesses.)

By all accounts, his work ethic is almost as big a strength as his outstanding physical attributes.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Calvin Johnson is can't miss. He won't bust unless he gets injured. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

If I was the GM sitting at #1, I would have a hard time passing on Johnson. Joe Thomas is the only player I would consider taking before him.

 

[kncks12]

I won't bump Johnson down in my rankings at all if he goes to Oakland. It's not the least bit difficult to conceive of a scenario where he quickly becomes a stud in Oakland:1. Raiders draft Calvin Johnson2. Raiders cut or trade Randy Moss3. Raiders sign a QB like Matt Schaub or draft a QB like Erik Ainge or Brian BrohmSuddenly Johnson is in a decent situation to produce. Even if the Raiders keep Moss, there should be plenty to go around.

When you want to perform in the Raiders offense, even at its worst this year, you can, Curry had 11 catches against the Chiefs! You just have to want to play. Moss doesn't want to play, and I said from pre season the guy does not look good.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

You all have made great points on taking him regardless of where he ends up; and for QBs and RBs I generally agree. He is very talented and I'm looking to acquire him in my main league. It just seems for WR there is so much more dependent on situation that any of the other two positions. I could see mediocre numbers like an Andre Johnson and you'd have to ask yourself if that is worth the #2 or 3 overall?

On a separate note, is Johnson going to Tampa Bay the best case scenario that I listed above? I think that most would agree that Oak and Cle would not be ideal, but which is the best place for him? Thanks...

 

[Nugget]

Johnson is a beast. Wherever he goes, we will be immediatly talking about that wide receiver core like Blodin/Fitz, Harrison/Wayne, and CJ/Housh. He has no flaws in his game. If Reggie Ball hadn't been the QB at GT, Calvin would have a Heisman on the mantle. Big, Fast, great hands, superior work ethic, both his parents are teachers, great character. I would not have been surprised to see him stay at Tech. I have man love for Calvin and I'm firmly on the bandwagon.

 

[dgreen]

Every year I tab one or two players as can't miss. Calvin Johnson is can't miss. He won't bust unless he gets injured. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

The can't-miss guy a couple years ago was Robert Gallery. Since he's not a skill player with a bunch of stats and highlights to look at, I'm not certain how well he's doing but he isn't performing like a can't-miss top pick.For me to take a WR high in a dynasty rookie draft, I want greatness. WR2s come and go and can easily be had off the waiver wire or through a cheap trade in most leagues.

 

[JayMan]

Johnson is a beast. Wherever he goes, we will be immediatly talking about that wide receiver core like Blodin/Fitz, Harrison/Wayne, and CJ/Housh. He has no flaws in his game. If Reggie Ball hadn't been the QB at GT, Calvin would have a Heisman on the mantle. Big, Fast, great hands, superior work ethic, both his parents are teachers, great character. I would not have been surprised to see him stay at Tech. I have man love for Calvin and I'm firmly on the bandwagon.

Maybe I'm under a rock... but has he declared for the draft yet?That's the only "negative" (FFwise) I can see - since there has been many talks about him wanting to get his college degree (his parents being teachers probably have an influence here)...

I'm not saying he should stay or go... I just happen to have the 1.03 (lottery pending) draft pick and I'm dying for Peterson / Lynch / Johnson to declare... since the dropoff is very steep...