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WR Diontae Johnson, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Probably my highest-priority offseason add across all dynasty leagues. He can be had for "cheap" and will produce in the right circumstances
Not a free agent as just signed a contract. But agree that he's a potential buy low. For starters hard to score 0 touchdowns again.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
Yes, he has pulled the "unfollowing his team" thing on social media.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Surprised he could do that without dropping his phone.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Well, he can’t throw the ball to himself
foxco
Footballguy
Would love it if he hit those numbers, but I'm a tad skeptical. Zero TD seasons will do that to a guy.
steelcityman
Footballguy
Same stat line as last year but with 6-8 TDs. Where would that put him overall WR? I think its pretty good.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Sounds like a great buy low opportunity. The passing game should improve, the blocking up front should be better. Nowhere to go but up I say! Similar to Miles Sanders coming into last year. It was "weird" he didn't get a single touchdown and ended up with a career high in yards and double digit touchdowns. The floor for Dionte is already set, so I'd bet on something to solidly get him as a above average WR2 as the floor, pesonally.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
The difference though is that in 2021, Eagles RB's did score 15 TD's. Not to mention the 10 Hurts put up on the board. Sanders' 0 TD's was truly an anomaly and he made himself heard about it as well.
But 5 TD's to WR's last year in PIT with a young QB at the helm is a different matter (4 to RB's/3 to TE's), not to mention a 2nd year WR in Pickens who looks primed to become a WR1.
Terpman22
Footballguy
I feel ya. Might not be "exactly" the same but to be contrary, at the same time Miles Sanders had never put up even 900 yards rushing either, and showed out last year as a RB1. Dionte has at least shown he has a higher floor, IMHO. I am "assuming" a jump, even if small from Pickett. 2nd year in the system, better weapons, better offensive line. Dionte "should" bounce back to at least an average level 4-6 TD's with more yards and catches. We shall see.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
88-107-86 catches last 3 years
7TD-8TD-Zero TDs
Can someone cue the Sesame Street music please...
"One of these stats is not like the others"
If you think he finds the end zone more times than he did last year, which isn't hard to fathom, WR33 off the board according to my ADP
What am I missing here?
Easy value move at WR 33. I will say though, he's about 10 yds per catch avg, he needs to catch 90-100 balls to make noise.
Kenny Pickett has been getting pretty good praise in camp, Year 2 we usually see marked improvement in QBs that are going to make it. I liked him coming out of the draft.
Wouldn't be hard to twist my arm to draft DJ as say a WR4/Flex and hope he returns to his '20 and '21 stats.
7TD-8TD-Zero TDs
Can someone cue the Sesame Street music please...
"One of these stats is not like the others"
If you think he finds the end zone more times than he did last year, which isn't hard to fathom, WR33 off the board according to my ADP
What am I missing here?
Easy value move at WR 33. I will say though, he's about 10 yds per catch avg, he needs to catch 90-100 balls to make noise.
Kenny Pickett has been getting pretty good praise in camp, Year 2 we usually see marked improvement in QBs that are going to make it. I liked him coming out of the draft.
Wouldn't be hard to twist my arm to draft DJ as say a WR4/Flex and hope he returns to his '20 and '21 stats.
The guy is a great value where he is being drafted.
One of the best separators in the league and their first round QB from last year should be better. He averaged just short of 7 TDs in his first 3 years in the league so I would guess he’s back in that range this year. Definitely someone I would love as a WR 3 this year if I grab a QB in the first 5 rounds.
One of the best separators in the league and their first round QB from last year should be better. He averaged just short of 7 TDs in his first 3 years in the league so I would guess he’s back in that range this year. Definitely someone I would love as a WR 3 this year if I grab a QB in the first 5 rounds.
What you're missing is that there's a different QB and a terrible OC (who was there for Ben's final year but not the previous ones). They had 12 passing TDs last year, and 1 of those was thrown by a WR for crying out loud. Pickett could improve quite a bit and they would still likely be a bottom 10 passing offense. He also has a lot more competition for targets and TDs now. He's at best 3rd in line for TDs behind Pickens and Muth IMO.
See above. There were way more TDs to go around those 3 years and fewer receivers to compete with for them. Zero obviously is a fluke, but I think 7 is a highly optimistic projection.
Yeah, that's not how it works though lol. If you did this for everybody he'd end up right about where he did.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed. I got him mid 5th in an NFC last night as my WR2. 0 TDs were just so flukey. Regression to the mean is coming.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Large disagree on that opinion. I think some are overrating Pickens. I don't think he will amount to much more than a jump ball specialist with above average hands. We've seen plenty of guys come out of college dominating at that level based on their physical size and nature, who wind up disappointing at the next level when they can't win on those things alone. His route running and separation are just bad. He was pretty good with press coverage, but below average against man, and bottom of the league bad against zone. I wouldn't fault anyone for blaming Canada's pathetic performance as OC, but I think that's just a part of it. And either way, he's steering the ship again this year. So expect 50% of his routes to be corners, posts, and flys. Meanwhile DJ is pretty much the opposite, as other's have already pointed out in the thread. And I'd probably find myself in an extremely small group of people on this one, but I'd argue Allen Robinson has more upside this year than Pickens in this offense considering Pickett and Canada limitations. I was certainly wrong about him last year as he looked dead out there, but I'll plant the flag and be wrong again this year.
It's possible, but a jump ball specialist with above average hands is still going to be a better option for TDs than a tiny WR with below average hands. I'd also point out that he was a rookie last year, and he still managed 4 TDs vs. 0 for Diontae. It certainly seems like he's made improvements in the offseason, but even if he didn't, I think it's pretty likely that he has more TDs than Johnson this year. And even if you disagree with the player, you don't seem to disagree with the premise- replace Allen Robinson with Pickens if you'd like, it still only puts Johnson as the 3rd best TD option, at best, in a (likely) bad passing offense. He may be lower than that on the TD food chain.
My point remains, he very likely will be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie than he did those other years. I think that needs to be considered when people casually throw out his TDs from previous seasons, as if "reverting to the mean" is likely. The circumstances are very different so it very well may be a different (lower) mean.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
In general, I find TDs pretty unpredictable, and attempting to speculate on them with regards to fantasy production/payoff of very little value. Maybe when using it as a tie breaker, and even then only has merit for me with regards to goal line RBs and differentiating between all the mediocre low volume TEs who rely so much on them for their own value. But that's kinda why I shifted my reply away from that and focused just on their overall skill as a WR and how they will actually produce on your fantasy team. So at face value, sure you could be correct when just looking at TDs. But considering DJ and Pickens are going within a few picks of one another in most ADPs, regardless of TD projections, I'd be taking DJ over Pickens 10/10 times and twice on Sunday.
I think people are "casually throwing out TDs from previous seasons" more to point out 0 is an aberration, least how it came off to me. But either way, I disagree with the logic that you use to say he will be getting less opportunities then he has in years past; and in general disagree that it's something that could be logically parsed out in such a way. I think there are way too many moving parts that go into it (hence why I said I think they are generally unpredictable), and tend to look at it from a basic macro perspective like others have pointed out. 0 is an aberration that will rebound in the other direction, same way that Jamaal Williams 17 last season was and will likely rebound in the other direction (even if he remained with the Lions).
LawFitz
Footballguy
Agreed here, but,
Johnson is an ideal NFL WR2, miscast as a WR1 IMHO. He doesn't have the physicality, hands or durability for the latter role.
Pickens might have the same issue, but for different reasons (separation, mainly). That said, it was his rookie year and they almost exclusively ran him on Go routes, which is clearly not his strength. Combine yr 2 growth with a more 1a or 1b role (and routes) for Pickens and he *could* blossom.
If Pickens becomes a legit or even semi-legit WR1, I think that could actually unleash DJ into becoming a decent 1b or at least a very strong WR2, by NFL and fantasy standards. However, if they take the same roles as they did last year, I suspect we'll all continue to be frustrated by this offense, as that clearly did not work, and I don't think it'll work this year either (i.e. Canada could blow this whole thing up, if the Stiller homers are right about his ineptitude).
I agree they're a bit unpredictable, but that's what we do in this hobby, make predictions. That's also clearly what my post was about (TDs), it wasn't about DJ vs. Pickens overall.
Yes, zero is an aberration, however that's not what they said, they all referred in some form to "getting back to those numbers" of TDs he's had in the past. Do you not even consider the overall offense when making projections? I don't see how anyone can argue that it isn't logical to do so and adjust expectations when one season with a different QB and a different OC had 35 passing TDs and the most recent one had 12 passing TDs. Sure, that's likely to increase some because it's gotta be one of the worst in modern NFL history, but it's very unlikely to approach the level where he put up his prior TDs. Put it this way, zero TDs wasn't predicable at all, but a drop from previous seasons was. Just like thinking he'll get back to those TD numbers this year is very optimistic IMO. The size of the pie, and competition for that pie, certainly matters.
In any event, happy to agree to disagree.
I would estimate Johnson will have 30+ catches more than Pickens. He's a FAR better route runner, and probably has more RAC ability. Pickens might win the TD battle, and will have a much higher YPR, but I think its kind of a Keenan Allen/Mike Williams situation, but with a much worse passing offense.
I like Johnson in round 5 and Pickens in round 7.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I was just going to say this - they're vastly different players in different roles. I agree with your breakdown - I have Dionte ahead in PPR, but the TDs should be something of an equalizer.
That said, when I watch Pickens, I worry that he might be a TD or bust kind of FF player. And he makes spectacular catches, but they often involve spectacular collisions / landings. I worry about how he'll hold up, and if he does, I wonder if he'll deliver enough consistently to be a top 30 receiving asset.
As this topic about Dionte is proof, TDs can be fickle.
I still think the 0 TD thing is flukey as hell. He's bound to score 5-7 this year.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Totally agree. I should have clarified better I don't see Pickens as more than a jump ball specialist in this offense as its currently being run. I don't think he's so talent deficient he couldn't be schemed into a very successful role and serve as a WR1. I could see his ceiling as Mike Williams. Well, 2021 Mike Williams who miraculously made it a full season without injury haha. But I think it would take a new OC at the least.
There was a tweet that summed up my thoughts on Canada as both a Steelers fan and a football fan in general:
PIT finished 23rd in points per drive. Let’s recap the 9 teams who were worse:
NE: fired OC
ARI: Fired HC/play caller
TB: fired OC
TEN: fired OC
WAS: fired OC
NYJ: fired OC
DEN: fired HC/play caller
HOU: fired everyone
IND: fired HC/play caller
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pinkstapler
Footballguy
Kenny Pickett had a 1.8% TD rate. It was historically bad, literally one of the worst ever recorded in the history of the NFL. Painted against his attempts, completions, college production.... it's not just playing bad. It's not just Canada's bad offense. It would practically take someone actively trying to not throw TDs across nearly 400 attempts. And they still might accidentally throw more lol. I don't expect a small correction here. I'm expecting the return to center to be double the amount if not more. And I'm far from a homer, if anything I'm a fan who tends to err on the side of "we're gonna suck". But I don't think it can be overstated how insane it was that he only had 7 TDs. I still don't love him as a QB as a fan or in fantasy, But I also don't think he's one of the worst QBs in the history of the game haha.
All that to say, whatever pie is being projected to be split for receiving scores, I see as being much, much larger. And don't think it's crazy to project DJ for 5-7 TDs at all.
I remember reading something earlier this offseason, about QBs who had bad luck and good luck when it came to TD/INT ratio. The gist of it was basically through, drops (by either team) penalties or other non-static outcomes, which players were basically better or worse than what their stats should have been. Anyway, Pickett and Trubisky were the 2 unluckiest QBs in the NFL, which could possibly be chalked up to Matt Canada, but could also just be random variance. Either way, there is a 99.9% chance the Steelers passing game should be much improved.
Also, the 2 QB's who were BY FAR the luckiest: Jared Goff and Daniel Jones.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Agree, might have read the same thing actually. On that note, yes, very off Danny Dimes this season, especially at his price of QB13/14. Doubt I'll own him anywhere this year, SF included.
Other than when Amon-Ra falls to the end of round 2, I'm pretty off the Lions in drafts. I do take Saquon sometimes around the 1/2 turn, but pretty off the Giants as well.
ETA: Diontae was a guy I liked a lot when he was going in round 7, but now that he's going in round 5, he hasn't ended up on my teams. I still like him just fine, just finding better values in my opinion.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I still think the 5th is solid value for him in PPR.
It's fair to worry/wonder about what Pickens can/will do, but that's because he's only been in the league 1 year, and that 1 year was spent playing on a disaster of an offense, the same one that everyone is trying to give DJ's lack of TDs a pass for. He's 22 years old, it stands to reason that he can improve/expand his game, and I think the "jump ball only" narrative is way overblown. The fact that he's really good at those is huge, but it's far from all he can do, he's very talented.
Except he's been more than a jump ball specialist already in this offense. He was in the end zone 6 times last season and only 1 was on a jump ball. Here's his only touch from week 1 of the preseason.
No doubt about it, it was putrid. However, 4 of his 7 TDs went to Pickens. Obviously that ratio likely isn't sustainable either, but I don't see how DJ gets a huge bump from 0 to 5-7 and others don't. And if others do, it would go from all-time bad to really good.
Thought exercise- what are your predictions for all Steelers receiving TDs this year? I think you'll find it's hard to make a strong case for DJ to get to that 7 TD number.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I just read an update today that he's going to see an increased route tree this year & should be more utilized - wouldn't that indicate his past route tree was limited, and he was underutilized?
Sometimes the reason something is a narrative is because there's evidence for it.
Maybe he improves this year, but so far there's no evidence of it. Sometimes the guys who are known for crazy contested catches are that way because they don't get separation. Just an observation.
Boston
Footballguy
I just read an update today that he's going to see an increased route tree this year & should be more utilized - wouldn't that indicate his past route tree was limited, and he was underutilized?
Sometimes the reason something is a narrative is because there's evidence for it.
Maybe he improves this year, but so far there's no evidence of it. Sometimes the guys who are known for crazy contested catches are that way because they don't get separation. Just an observation.
Or it could be because he was a rookie who had also missed a good amount of time the previous two years due to COVID and an ACL...looks like there are a decent amount of people not sold on him...the kid looks like a big-time talent to me...my biggest concern about him was he may have some diva in him but that is not unusual for the WR position.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh I agree he's a talent.
But I am not 100% sold on him. I think Dionte is a better route runner.
A lot of the highlight camp catches I've seen of Pickens, he's either having to make a contested catch, or he pushes off in what would be called OPI were it a real game.
If he can't improve in that area, I don't think he has a really high ceiling - but I do agree he's a hugely talented kid & he's super exciting to watch. Not hating on him at all - I just think he needs seasoning. As you indicated, there might be external factors for why he might not be where he could be at this point. This year will be telling.
I still think Dionte has the better FF season. None of this speculation will matter if Pickett doesn't take a bit step forward.
I mean, I personally agree that his route tree was limited and he was underutilized (I put that more on the coaching/offense but that's not the point). That's completely different from saying that he's a "jump ball only" type of WR. That was a very small part of his game, even considering that he had a somewhat limited route tree and was underutilized.
I just read an update today that he's going to see an increased route tree this year & should be more utilized - wouldn't that indicate his past route tree was limited, and he was underutilized?
Sometimes the reason something is a narrative is because there's evidence for it.
Maybe he improves this year, but so far there's no evidence of it. Sometimes the guys who are known for crazy contested catches are that way because they don't get separation. Just an observation.
Yes, sometimes the reason there's a narrative is because there's evidence for it. Other times it's for other reasons, such as who someone does or doesn't have on their magic football team. There is zero evidence that Pickens is a "jump ball only" player and plenty of evidence that he can do a lot more than that for people who choose to see things objectively.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I never said he was a “jump ball only” player.I mean, I personally agree that his route tree was limited and he was underutilized (I put that more on the coaching/offense but that's not the point). That's completely different from saying that he's a "jump ball only" type of WR. That was a very small part of his game, even considering that he had a somewhat limited route tree and was underutilized.
I just read an update today that he's going to see an increased route tree this year & should be more utilized - wouldn't that indicate his past route tree was limited, and he was underutilized?
Sometimes the reason something is a narrative is because there's evidence for it.
Maybe he improves this year, but so far there's no evidence of it. Sometimes the guys who are known for crazy contested catches are that way because they don't get separation. Just an observation.
Yes, sometimes the reason there's a narrative is because there's evidence for it. Other times it's for other reasons, such as who someone does or doesn't have on their magic football team. There is zero evidence that Pickens is a "jump ball only" player and plenty of evidence that he can do a lot more than that for people who choose to see things objectively.
Why are you putting that in quotes and attributing it to me?
Boston
Footballguy
Funny...I like both but see it totally different...I see Pickens as having a huge ceiling (and he is far from a definite) and Diontae being a reliable WR who has a very high floor but not a high ceiling.
I'm not attributing it to you, It was in my response which you quoted but left out and is the narrative that I'm arguing against. I never said that his route tree wasn't limited or that he wasn't underutilized last year.I never said he was a “jump ball only” player.I mean, I personally agree that his route tree was limited and he was underutilized (I put that more on the coaching/offense but that's not the point). That's completely different from saying that he's a "jump ball only" type of WR. That was a very small part of his game, even considering that he had a somewhat limited route tree and was underutilized.
I just read an update today that he's going to see an increased route tree this year & should be more utilized - wouldn't that indicate his past route tree was limited, and he was underutilized?
Sometimes the reason something is a narrative is because there's evidence for it.
Maybe he improves this year, but so far there's no evidence of it. Sometimes the guys who are known for crazy contested catches are that way because they don't get separation. Just an observation.
Yes, sometimes the reason there's a narrative is because there's evidence for it. Other times it's for other reasons, such as who someone does or doesn't have on their magic football team. There is zero evidence that Pickens is a "jump ball only" player and plenty of evidence that he can do a lot more than that for people who choose to see things objectively.
Why are you putting that in quotes and attributing it to me?
