the dropoff is substantial after you move Boldin, Welker and Marshall up. They are the last true WR2s. The rest are WR3s at best. I agree that VJax, Chambers, and Hackett will have pretty big years. Calvin is an enormous talent, but there are tons of busts with tons of talent.
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WR Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter travdogg
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
TO - No way he's a top 5 dynasty WR. I don't even have him in my top 15. Fitz - Outside the top 10? Below Edwards and AJ? Huh? Fitz is my number 1 by a wide margin. There's no better combination of youth, talent, and track record in the NFL.Boldin - Too low. He's a fringe WR1 in a dynasty. I have him in my top 10. Crayton - Garbage. I'd trade him for a song. He's not a has-been. He's a never-will-be. I'd also probably put Calvin Johnson higher, but I can understand the argument for him where you have him.
EBF
Footballguy
A little note on the TO thing:
I hear this "Yea, he's old, but he'll help me win the title this year" logic used every year to justify some of the terrible reaches in my dynasty drafts. Every year there's an owner who thinks he can cheat father time and uses an early pick on a geriatric guy like Marvin Harrison, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, or Marshall Faulk.
I'm always critical of these picks and I always hear the same kind of response: "I know he's old, but he's a stud and I think he has 2-3 great years left in the tank." Don't bet against history when it comes to players nearing the end of their careers. I've been a vocal hater of aging stars like Harrison, Alexander, Barber, and Holmes in prior seasons. Almost every time I've come out smelling like roses 1-2 years down the line.
History says TO probably has 1-2 elite years left. Draft accordingly.
I hear this "Yea, he's old, but he'll help me win the title this year" logic used every year to justify some of the terrible reaches in my dynasty drafts. Every year there's an owner who thinks he can cheat father time and uses an early pick on a geriatric guy like Marvin Harrison, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, or Marshall Faulk.
I'm always critical of these picks and I always hear the same kind of response: "I know he's old, but he's a stud and I think he has 2-3 great years left in the tank." Don't bet against history when it comes to players nearing the end of their careers. I've been a vocal hater of aging stars like Harrison, Alexander, Barber, and Holmes in prior seasons. Almost every time I've come out smelling like roses 1-2 years down the line.
History says TO probably has 1-2 elite years left. Draft accordingly.
KoolKat
Footballguy
TO - No way he's a top 5 dynasty WR. I don't even have him in my top 15. Fitz - Outside the top 10? Below Edwards and AJ? Huh? Fitz is my number 1 by a wide margin. There's no better combination of youth, talent, and track record in the NFL.Boldin - Too low. He's a fringe WR1 in a dynasty. I have him in my top 10. Crayton - Garbage. I'd trade him for a song. He's not a has-been. He's a never-will-be. I'd also probably put Calvin Johnson higher, but I can understand the argument for him where you have him.
Travdogg must have problems with reading comprehension. Even after all of my proofs of why Boldin is a stud and will continue to be, and he does not break the Top 20? Rated behind guys like Roddy White?? The fact that he has played in 85% of games he could have possibly played in is not proof enough that your, "He's injured too often." argument is bogus?I'm not knocking Fitz and Boldin as players. I'm worried Leinart will kill their value. Look at 2006 again. Neither Fitz or Boldin was a top-20 WR with Leinart behind center and that was with pass-happy Denny calling the shots. Both Boldin and Fitz are top-10 caliber talents but unless Warner somehow starts over Leinart, I don't see any reason to rank them higher. Plus, Whisenhunt wants to run more than they did this year and will likely spend the offseason getting players to help him accomplish that goal. Personally I can't see any reason to have Boldin in the top-10 unless something major(Fitz trade, Leinart progressing) happens.As for TO: maybe I think differently than most in dynasty leagues, but I don't care who is going to be great in 5 years. I think a 3 year window is the most you can assume due to the uncertainty of injuries and other factors. I think TO has 2 more top-3 seasons in him. I believe in Romo.(and Garrett) As for Crayton, I don't like him much, but he signed an extension to be their WR2 for the next few years and in that offense that has real value. Their are probably 50 WR's better than Crayton but they aren't starting in Dallas.TO - No way he's a top 5 dynasty WR. I don't even have him in my top 15. Fitz - Outside the top 10? Below Edwards and AJ? Huh? Fitz is my number 1 by a wide margin. There's no better combination of youth, talent, and track record in the NFL.Boldin - Too low. He's a fringe WR1 in a dynasty. I have him in my top 10. Crayton - Garbage. I'd trade him for a song. He's not a has-been. He's a never-will-be. I'd also probably put Calvin Johnson higher, but I can understand the argument for him where you have him.
Travdogg must have problems with reading comprehension. Even after all of my proofs of why Boldin is a stud and will continue to be, and he does not break the Top 20? Rated behind guys like Roddy White?? The fact that he has played in 85% of games he could have possibly played in is not proof enough that your, "He's injured too often." argument is bogus?
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KoolKat
Footballguy
So, you now shift your argument from, "Boldin is hurt too often," which has been destroyed, to Leinart will kill their value. Let me ask you this, how many QBs that are terrible and produce terrible numbers and results keep their jobs for more than a year? Give me a few examples. You said yourself that you believe that Fitzy and Boldin are Top 10 talents and you subscribe to the 3-Year window philosophy. If Leinart is as terrible as you assume, he will not be around 3 years from now, and most likely wont even make it through the season. It is foolish to put no weight on age in dynasty. It is also foolish to draft someone just because they are extremely young. However, when someone has a proven track record of producing and is nearly a decade younger than a guy like TO, it is idiotic to say, " I only look three years in the future, so that is irrelevant." Look at the Shark Pool's polls, and you will see that the majority of people have Fitz as their #1 (you don't even have him in the top 10 which is laughable), and Boldin also in the top 10. Funny how the lack of a good QB did not hurt your Roddy White ranking. I think you are not asking yourself, "Are my premises and conclusions as good, reasonable, and logical as what KK is saying?" Instead you are assuming your conclusions are better even though they are without merit, and when proven wrong you stubbornly refuse to admit that you have been mistaken.I'm not knocking Fitz and Boldin as players. I'm worried Leinart will kill their value. Look at 2006 again. Neither Fitz or Boldin was a top-20 WR with Leinart behind center and that was with pass-happy Denny calling the shots. Both Boldin and Fitz are top-10 caliber talents but unless Warner somehow starts over Leinart, I don't see any reason to rank them higher. Plus, Whisenhunt wants to run more than they did this year and will likely spend the offseason getting players to help him accomplish that goal. Personally I can't see any reason to have Boldin in the top-10 unless something major(Fitz trade, Leinart progressing) happens.As for TO: maybe I think differently than most in dynasty leagues, but I don't care who is going to be great in 5 years. I think a 3 year window is the most you can assume due to the uncertainty of injuries and other factors. I think TO has 2 more top-3 seasons in him. I believe in Romo.(and Garrett) As for Crayton, I don't like him much, but he signed an extension to be their WR2 for the next few years and in that offense that has real value. Their are probably 50 WR's better than Crayton but they aren't starting in Dallas.Travdogg must have problems with reading comprehension. Even after all of my proofs of why Boldin is a stud and will continue to be, and he does not break the Top 20? Rated behind guys like Roddy White?? The fact that he has played in 85% of games he could have possibly played in is not proof enough that your, "He's injured too often." argument is bogus?
How long have the Bears stuck with Grossman? Or San Fran with Smith? Unless Leinart plays Akili Smith bad and the team threatens a revolt he's getting at least a year to be the QB.Didn't Boldin miss half of 2004 and almost half of this year? That's injury-prone to me. I'm not abandoning that argument, I just shifted to include the Leinart one so I could talk about Boldin and Fitz at the same time.Roddy White is pretty much Atlanta's entire offense at this point. He may very well be as talented as Boldin(who knows how fast he would have developed if Vick weren't there)Boldin has finished as a top-10 WR once in the last 4 years. That was in 2005 when Arizona basically quit trying to run the ball around the second half of week 1.Why people like Fitz #1 is baffling to me. I can't think of a reason to even consider him before Wayne or Moss.So, you now shift your argument from, "Boldin is hurt too often," which has been destroyed, to Leinart will kill their value. Let me ask you this, how many QBs that are terrible and produce terrible numbers and results keep their jobs for more than a year? Give me a few examples. You said yourself that you believe that Fitzy and Boldin are Top 10 talents and you subscribe to the 3-Year window philosophy. If Leinart is as terrible as you assume, he will not be around 3 years from now, and most likely wont even make it through the season. It is foolish to put no weight on age in dynasty. It is also foolish to draft someone just because they are extremely young. However, when someone has a proven track record of producing and is nearly a decade younger than a guy like TO, it is idiotic to say, " I only look three years in the future, so that is irrelevant." Look at the Shark Pool's polls, and you will see that the majority of people have Fitz as their #1 (you don't even have him in the top 10 which is laughable), and Boldin also in the top 10. Funny how the lack of a good QB did not hurt your Roddy White ranking. I think you are not asking yourself, "Are my premises and conclusions as good, reasonable, and logical as what KK is saying?" Instead you are assuming your conclusions are better even though they are without merit, and when proven wrong you stubbornly refuse to admit that you have been mistaken.I'm not knocking Fitz and Boldin as players. I'm worried Leinart will kill their value. Look at 2006 again. Neither Fitz or Boldin was a top-20 WR with Leinart behind center and that was with pass-happy Denny calling the shots. Both Boldin and Fitz are top-10 caliber talents but unless Warner somehow starts over Leinart, I don't see any reason to rank them higher. Plus, Whisenhunt wants to run more than they did this year and will likely spend the offseason getting players to help him accomplish that goal. Personally I can't see any reason to have Boldin in the top-10 unless something major(Fitz trade, Leinart progressing) happens.As for TO: maybe I think differently than most in dynasty leagues, but I don't care who is going to be great in 5 years. I think a 3 year window is the most you can assume due to the uncertainty of injuries and other factors. I think TO has 2 more top-3 seasons in him. I believe in Romo.(and Garrett) As for Crayton, I don't like him much, but he signed an extension to be their WR2 for the next few years and in that offense that has real value. Their are probably 50 WR's better than Crayton but they aren't starting in Dallas.Travdogg must have problems with reading comprehension. Even after all of my proofs of why Boldin is a stud and will continue to be, and he does not break the Top 20? Rated behind guys like Roddy White?? The fact that he has played in 85% of games he could have possibly played in is not proof enough that your, "He's injured too often." argument is bogus?
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EBF
Footballguy
So, you now shift your argument from, "Boldin is hurt too often," which has been destroyed, to Leinart will kill their value. Let me ask you this, how many QBs that are terrible and produce terrible numbers and results keep their jobs for more than a year? Give me a few examples. You said yourself that you believe that Fitzy and Boldin are Top 10 talents and you subscribe to the 3-Year window philosophy. If Leinart is as terrible as you assume, he will not be around 3 years from now, and most likely wont even make it through the season. It is foolish to put no weight on age in dynasty. It is also foolish to draft someone just because they are extremely young. However, when someone has a proven track record of producing and is nearly a decade younger than a guy like TO, it is idiotic to say, " I only look three years in the future, so that is irrelevant." Look at the Shark Pool's polls, and you will see that the majority of people have Fitz as their #1 (you don't even have him in the top 10 which is laughable), and Boldin also in the top 10. Funny how the lack of a good QB did not hurt your Roddy White ranking. I think you are not asking yourself, "Are my premises and conclusions as good, reasonable, and logical as what KK is saying?" Instead you are assuming your conclusions are better even though they are without merit, and when proven wrong you stubbornly refuse to admit that you have been mistaken.I'm not knocking Fitz and Boldin as players. I'm worried Leinart will kill their value. Look at 2006 again. Neither Fitz or Boldin was a top-20 WR with Leinart behind center and that was with pass-happy Denny calling the shots. Both Boldin and Fitz are top-10 caliber talents but unless Warner somehow starts over Leinart, I don't see any reason to rank them higher. Plus, Whisenhunt wants to run more than they did this year and will likely spend the offseason getting players to help him accomplish that goal. Personally I can't see any reason to have Boldin in the top-10 unless something major(Fitz trade, Leinart progressing) happens.As for TO: maybe I think differently than most in dynasty leagues, but I don't care who is going to be great in 5 years. I think a 3 year window is the most you can assume due to the uncertainty of injuries and other factors. I think TO has 2 more top-3 seasons in him. I believe in Romo.(and Garrett) As for Crayton, I don't like him much, but he signed an extension to be their WR2 for the next few years and in that offense that has real value. Their are probably 50 WR's better than Crayton but they aren't starting in Dallas.Travdogg must have problems with reading comprehension. Even after all of my proofs of why Boldin is a stud and will continue to be, and he does not break the Top 20? Rated behind guys like Roddy White?? The fact that he has played in 85% of games he could have possibly played in is not proof enough that your, "He's injured too often." argument is bogus?
You don't get hung up on situation when talking dynasty.1. We don't know for sure that Leinart sucks.2. If he does suck, he won't be starting for long.3. We don't even know Fitzgerald and Boldin will be on the Cardinals beyond next season. In dynasty, you bank on talent. Boldin and Fitz are elite talents. Simple as that.
The fact that he's 24 years old and already starting in the Pro Bowl might have something to do with it. Two 1,400 yard seasons also help his case. Moss and Wayne will be on the backslope of their careers in another year or two. It's all downhill from here.
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KoolKat
Footballguy
Again I say, Boldin has played in 85 % of all possible games he could have possibly played in. That is not injury prone. Also, Boldin missed 6 games in 2004, not half the season. As far as Grossman, the Bears stuck with him because he was injured. Once he became a starter, he was yanked in less than two seasons.You can't think of one reason why people think Fitz is better than Moss and Wayne? I wonder if you are thinking hard enough, because there are several. Here is an easy one:Wayne 29Moss 31Fitzy 24I would love if you could provide a link saying Boldin has not been Top 10 more than once in the last four years. For the sake of argument, I will assume you are correct. I don't think you are looking at Pts. Per Game, which is the best test for a WRs fantasy production. In the last 4 Years, Boldin has averaged:6 rec 78.5 yds .4 TDsCompare that to Reggie Wayne who has averaged5.5 Rec 80.6 yds .58 TDsNow, that is comparing him with your # 1 guys over the last four years. I think this is proof enough that Boldin is a stud, and will continue to be.Edited to add that it is interesting that you have Leinart as "a good buy low" in your QB ratings, yet you rate Fitz and Boldin extremely low primarily due to Leinart.How long have the Bears stuck with Grossman? Or San Fran with Smith? Unless Leinart plays Akili Smith bad and the team threatens a revolt he's getting at least a year to be the QB.Didn't Boldin miss half of 2004 and almost half of this year? That's injury-prone to me. I'm not abandoning that argument, I just shifted to include the Leinart one so I could talk about Boldin and Fitz at the same time.Roddy White is pretty much Atlanta's entire offense at this point. He may very well be as talented as Boldin(who knows how fast he would have developed if Vick weren't there)Boldin has finished as a top-10 WR once in the last 4 years. That was in 2005 when Arizona basically quit trying to run the ball around the second half of week 1.Why people like Fitz #1 is baffling to me. I can't think of a reason to even consider him before Wayne or Moss.So, you now shift your argument from, "Boldin is hurt too often," which has been destroyed, to Leinart will kill their value. Let me ask you this, how many QBs that are terrible and produce terrible numbers and results keep their jobs for more than a year? Give me a few examples. You said yourself that you believe that Fitzy and Boldin are Top 10 talents and you subscribe to the 3-Year window philosophy. If Leinart is as terrible as you assume, he will not be around 3 years from now, and most likely wont even make it through the season. It is foolish to put no weight on age in dynasty. It is also foolish to draft someone just because they are extremely young. However, when someone has a proven track record of producing and is nearly a decade younger than a guy like TO, it is idiotic to say, " I only look three years in the future, so that is irrelevant." Look at the Shark Pool's polls, and you will see that the majority of people have Fitz as their #1 (you don't even have him in the top 10 which is laughable), and Boldin also in the top 10. Funny how the lack of a good QB did not hurt your Roddy White ranking. I think you are not asking yourself, "Are my premises and conclusions as good, reasonable, and logical as what KK is saying?" Instead you are assuming your conclusions are better even though they are without merit, and when proven wrong you stubbornly refuse to admit that you have been mistaken.I'm not knocking Fitz and Boldin as players. I'm worried Leinart will kill their value. Look at 2006 again. Neither Fitz or Boldin was a top-20 WR with Leinart behind center and that was with pass-happy Denny calling the shots. Both Boldin and Fitz are top-10 caliber talents but unless Warner somehow starts over Leinart, I don't see any reason to rank them higher. Plus, Whisenhunt wants to run more than they did this year and will likely spend the offseason getting players to help him accomplish that goal. Personally I can't see any reason to have Boldin in the top-10 unless something major(Fitz trade, Leinart progressing) happens.As for TO: maybe I think differently than most in dynasty leagues, but I don't care who is going to be great in 5 years. I think a 3 year window is the most you can assume due to the uncertainty of injuries and other factors. I think TO has 2 more top-3 seasons in him. I believe in Romo.(and Garrett) As for Crayton, I don't like him much, but he signed an extension to be their WR2 for the next few years and in that offense that has real value. Their are probably 50 WR's better than Crayton but they aren't starting in Dallas.TO - No way he's a top 5 dynasty WR. I don't even have him in my top 15. Fitz - Outside the top 10? Below Edwards and AJ? Huh? Fitz is my number 1 by a wide margin. There's no better combination of youth, talent, and track record in the NFL.Boldin - Too low. He's a fringe WR1 in a dynasty. I have him in my top 10. Crayton - Garbage. I'd trade him for a song. He's not a has-been. He's a never-will-be. I'd also probably put Calvin Johnson higher, but I can understand the argument for him where you have him.
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EBF
Footballguy
Career averages per 16 games played:Larry Fitzgerald - 88 catches, 1212 yards, 9 TDRandy Moss - 80 catches, 1267 yards, 13 TDReggie Wayne - 73 catches, 1025 yards, 7 TDSteve Smith - 75 catches, 1030 yards, 6 TDTerrell Owens - 82 catches, 1209 yards, 12 TDAnquan Boldin - 97 catches, 1284 yards, 7 TDChad Johnson - 83 catches, 1239 yards, 7 TDTorry Holt - 91 catches, 1337 yards, 8 TDIf you skew the data to exclude the player's developmental seasons (the seasons prior to the player's first 1,000 yard season) you get the following results:Larry Fitzgerald - 99 catches, 1368 yards, 9 TDRandy Moss - 80 catches, 1267 yards, 13 TDReggie Wayne - 88 catches, 1271 yards, 9 TDSteve Smith - 95 catches, 1264 yards, 9 TDTerrell Owens - 89 catches, 1317 yards, 13 TDAnquan Boldin - 97 catches, 1284 yards, 7 TDChad Johnson - 89 catches, 1340 yards, 8 TDTorry Holt - 96 catches, 1406 yards, 8 TDFitzgerald averages more catches per season than any other WR in the league. The only WR in the league who averages more yards per season is Torry Holt. He's almost 32 years old. The only WRs in the league who average more TDs per season are Owens and Moss. They're both over 30. Fitzgerald is 24. It isn't surprising that anyone has Larry Fitzgerald ranked as the top dynasty WR. In fact, what's surprising is that there are people who DON'T have Larry Fitzgerald ranked as the top dynasty WR. He is the clear choice as the first WR off the board in a dynasty league.travdogg said:
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Yeah, I'm hedging with Leinart, either Fitz and Boldin will make him productive or he'll seriously damage both their values. He is a good buy low if someone has an excellent starter(top-5 caliber)
As for Fitz' age being a huge difference maker, I don't see it. It's not like Wayne is old and Moss has several years left(the majority of which he'll outproduce Fitz.) Will Fitz be worth more than Wayne or Moss in 3-5 years? Probably, but I don't care about that, I care about who will be be more productive over that time frame not who will be better at the end of it.
As for the Boldin/Wayne argument, I don't think Wayne's last 4 years are comparable as he wasn't the go-to-guy in the offense that he is now. If anything it might be fairer to take Harrison's 04-06 and then Wayne's numbers last year to average for Reggie.
Since 04' Boldin has finished:
2004: 57th between K-Rob and Gaffney
2005: 6th between Holt and Galloway
2006: 22nd between Ward and Fitz
2007: 16th between Holmes and Curtis
He gets a lot of catches so I assume he's higher in ppr leagues, but that is 1 top-10 year in the last 4.
Wayne meanwhile:
2004:8th between Harrison and Ocho
2005:22nd between Jurevicius and Curtis
2006: 3rd between TO and Smith
2007:4th between Edwards and Fitz
Colts WR1:
2004 7th between Holt and Colts WR2
2005:8th between Galloway and Chambers
2006: 1st over TO and Colts WR2
2007: 4th between Edwards and Fitz.
Again I don't hate Fitz or Boldin but I just think they aren't as great as they are perceived from a fantasy standpoint.
As for Fitz' age being a huge difference maker, I don't see it. It's not like Wayne is old and Moss has several years left(the majority of which he'll outproduce Fitz.) Will Fitz be worth more than Wayne or Moss in 3-5 years? Probably, but I don't care about that, I care about who will be be more productive over that time frame not who will be better at the end of it.
As for the Boldin/Wayne argument, I don't think Wayne's last 4 years are comparable as he wasn't the go-to-guy in the offense that he is now. If anything it might be fairer to take Harrison's 04-06 and then Wayne's numbers last year to average for Reggie.
Since 04' Boldin has finished:
2004: 57th between K-Rob and Gaffney
2005: 6th between Holt and Galloway
2006: 22nd between Ward and Fitz
2007: 16th between Holmes and Curtis
He gets a lot of catches so I assume he's higher in ppr leagues, but that is 1 top-10 year in the last 4.
Wayne meanwhile:
2004:8th between Harrison and Ocho
2005:22nd between Jurevicius and Curtis
2006: 3rd between TO and Smith
2007:4th between Edwards and Fitz
Colts WR1:
2004 7th between Holt and Colts WR2
2005:8th between Galloway and Chambers
2006: 1st over TO and Colts WR2
2007: 4th between Edwards and Fitz.
Again I don't hate Fitz or Boldin but I just think they aren't as great as they are perceived from a fantasy standpoint.
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KoolKat
Footballguy
You cannot have it both ways. Either Leinart is a good buy low or he will severely hurt the value of the AZ WR. Again, you are not looking at PPG which is the best measuring stick for WR production. The fact that you cannot "see" beyond 3 years is idiotic. This is why you have TO as a top 5 guy when most don't even have him in the Top 15. You may not think Fitz and Boldin are as good as they are perceived, but they are definitely better than 11th and 21st. What about EBF's argument that talent trumps situation in dynasty? I am not sure why I even bother arguing with you. I have made several sound arguments, you have made only ONE legitimate argument, and that is all based on the assumption that Boldin and Fitz will stay in AZ and Leinart will be terrible. Both of which you have no proof. I was not saying Boldin is a better guy to have than Wayne, just comparing what your #21 WR has done incomparison to your #1 WR.
Do you have any idea how little sense this makes? And WR 31 is bad for a WR3? (You do realize that the majority of folks play in 12 man leagues, right? Or, at least ten man leagues? 12 X 3 = 36...making WR31 the AVERAGE WR3.Maybe I'm just cranky today....don't usually attack this many other posters! Someone bring me some more
!!!!
