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WR Jameson Williams, DET (9 Viewers)

if he breaks out … won’t he be eating a lions share worth of targets from some highly drafted players …
I think he can "break out" without taking a ton of volume away from ARSB/LaPorta. He will be the big play guy that can be serviceable for FF on a handful of targets a week. He is very complimentary skill set wise to the other players.
 
if he breaks out … won’t he be eating a lions share worth of targets from some highly drafted players …
I mean, if he just takes Josh Reynolds targets from last year in addition to his own, that's 106, which feels reasonable. Its also possible (likely?) that Williams being an every down threat increases the YPC of other players, where them might not need quite as much volume. I don't envision a scenario where St. Brown doesn't get 10 targets weekly, he's just that great, but LaPorta could offset less targets, with a much higher YPC than the 10.3 he had a year ago. Same with Gibbs likely to increase from 6.1 YPC.

I'm a big fan of Jameson in round 10, and really all the pieces of the Lions offense at their ADPs. Possibly my favorite team to have multiple players from, them or Miami.
 
if he breaks out … won’t he be eating a lions share worth of targets from some highly drafted players …
I mean, if he just takes Josh Reynolds targets from last year in addition to his own, that's 106, which feels reasonable. Its also possible (likely?) that Williams being an every down threat increases the YPC of other players, where them might not need quite as much volume. I don't envision a scenario where St. Brown doesn't get 10 targets weekly, he's just that great, but LaPorta could offset less targets, with a much higher YPC than the 10.3 he had a year ago. Same with Gibbs likely to increase from 6.1 YPC.

I'm a big fan of Jameson in round 10, and really all the pieces of the Lions offense at their ADPs. Possibly my favorite team to have multiple players from, them or Miami.
rd 10 getting less likely. prolly have to bump it to 9 atm. soon prolly higher. and if he has a big preseason performance maybe as high as 7 right before the season
 
I don't think we'll get much out of the preseason. Lions usually play almost all backups and use it to decide the final roster.
 
rd 10 getting less likely. prolly have to bump it to 9 atm. soon prolly higher. and if he has a big preseason performance maybe as high as 7 right before the season

Super early drafts he will still be an awesome bargain you can get in the 7th to 9th rounds. As you get close to week one, I could see him going in the 3rd.
hmmm.
well i've done 7 redrafts as of this moment. most recent one today i landed jamo at the 9/10 turn (108/9th) also got him previously at 143rd, 128th, 135th, and 146th overall. the 2 drafts i didn't land him he went 111th and 107th overall. i don't know if the community at large is as high on him as people around here. i'm glad i got him on 5/7 teams so far but he's jumped up from rd 10-13 territory into round 9-10 range. i do think he rises more but i doubt he rises higher than round 7. i guess if site rankings keep boosting him he could go higher.
 
I don't think we'll get much out of the preseason. Lions usually play almost all backups and use it to decide the final roster.

Yeah I doubt very much Goff, Monty, Jah, ARSB, Jamo, LaPorta, and the 5 starting OL plays a single snap in August. That's how they rolled last year.

They're doing a couple days of joint practices with the Giants next week in NJ, and they use those in lieu of playing the offensive starters a series or two for evaluation purposes. Those joint practices are more intense than the PS games lol and they can use side by side fields to run both units through situational football simultaneously.
 
@CoachspeakIndex

Aug 1 Lions OC Ben Johnson on Jameson Williams making the leap:

“We started feeling it towards the end of last year, and he’s taken that to another level in the springtime and so far here in training camp… His route tree has kind of grown, it has developed. In his mind, there’s nothing he can’t do.”



it's been a consistent theme since OTAs

Jul 29 HC Dan Campbell on Jameson Williams:

“This is the most confident that I’ve seen him since he’s been here. He came in with the right mindset when we started this offseason, and that has not waned one bit. He’s in a good place.”

Jul 25 Lions HC Dan Campbell on Jameson Williams:

“He’s only gonna get better every day. He’ll just keep putting it in… He’s got the right mindset.”

May 23 HC Dan Campbell on Jameson Williams:

“If you said, ‘give me one player that is the most improved [this offseason],’ Jamo would be that guy right now. He is a man on a mission, and I’m just gonna leave it at that.”

Campbell has a 90% reliability rating on depth chart and usage/workload coachspeak and has been talking up Jamo for months



Dig around, there are similar comments from Goff, ARSB, Taylor Decker, Aidan Hutchinson - literally everybody on the team knows he is going to have a big year.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board in 2022 and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.
 
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I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.
I'm not a Lions fan, but I'm hoping they make the superbowl this year and with what you just said, that offense is going to be fun to watch!
 
if he breaks out … won’t he be eating a lions share worth of targets from some highly drafted players …
I mean, if he just takes Josh Reynolds targets from last year in addition to his own, that's 106, which feels reasonable. Its also possible (likely?) that Williams being an every down threat increases the YPC of other players, where them might not need quite as much volume. I don't envision a scenario where St. Brown doesn't get 10 targets weekly, he's just that great, but LaPorta could offset less targets, with a much higher YPC than the 10.3 he had a year ago. Same with Gibbs likely to increase from 6.1 YPC.

I'm a big fan of Jameson in round 10, and really all the pieces of the Lions offense at their ADPs. Possibly my favorite team to have multiple players from, them or Miami.
rd 10 getting less likely. prolly have to bump it to 9 atm. soon prolly higher. and if he has a big preseason performance maybe as high as 7 right before the season

Depends on where you play. Underdog ADP is already mid round 8. FFPC he is still a round 10ish pick.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.

So much better than Puka or Kyren last year at the your draft.
 
through ~130 drafts.
:laugh:

I'm doing things wrong...

And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy.
well 30% is considered balanced at the high end. So it isn't really that far off. Out of 61 WRs in my best ball portfolio, there are only 5 that would be considered overweight on (over 30%). Jamo happens to be number 1. That isn't crazy that's a bell curve. And for me right now it's probably a left-handed bell curve in that I have more guys I'm underweight on than over.

The biggest danger is not necessarily that I go too overweight on a few players (40 or 50% for a couple plant-my-flag guys is totally normal) but rather that I am too UNDERweight on other players. Who have I not been drafting that I probably should? Through 130 drafts 61 drafted WRs may be a bit low IDK.
 
through ~130 drafts.
:laugh:

I'm doing things wrong...

And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy.
well 30% is considered balanced at the high end. So it isn't really that far off. Out of 61 WRs in my best ball portfolio, there are only 5 that would be considered overweight on (over 30%). Jamo happens to be number 1. That isn't crazy that's a bell curve. And for me right now it's probably a left-handed bell curve in that I have more guys I'm underweight on than over.

The biggest danger is not necessarily that I go too overweight on a few players (40 or 50% for a couple plant-my-flag guys is totally normal) but rather that I am too UNDERweight on other players. Who have I not been drafting that I probably should? Through 130 drafts 61 drafted WRs may be a bit low IDK.

10 percent is usually balanced. 20 percent is overw weight, but even if 30 percent is balanced for you, then you are almost 70 percent overweight. That is a lot.
 
Depends on where you play. Underdog ADP is already mid round 8. FFPC he is still a round 10ish pick.

Question for you, or anyone:

Do you prefer most players around his ADP, you think he's overvalued?

I ask because I am NOT a Jameson guy, at least not in terms of WR2 upside, but when I look at the overall ADP, there aren't too many guys I would take over him. Guys going after him are Brian Thomas, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Lockett.......meh...even if you aren't a Jameson truther, just seems like a more than fair spot to take a shot on him.
 
I ask because I am NOT a Jameson guy, at least not in terms of WR2 upside, but when I look at the overall ADP, there aren't too many guys I would take over him. Guys going after him are Brian Thomas, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Lockett.......meh...even if you aren't a Jameson truther, just seems like a more than fair spot to take a shot on him.
Kind of depends on your roster construction and what you want out of that pick. Jamo is by far the highest upside guy of those guys but he also has quite the low floor. So are you looking for that upside with that pick or more of a floor guy you can use any week. I think that is what dictates the direction of that selection.
 
through ~130 drafts.
:laugh:

I'm doing things wrong...

And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy.
well 30% is considered balanced at the high end. So it isn't really that far off. Out of 61 WRs in my best ball portfolio, there are only 5 that would be considered overweight on (over 30%). Jamo happens to be number 1. That isn't crazy that's a bell curve. And for me right now it's probably a left-handed bell curve in that I have more guys I'm underweight on than over.

The biggest danger is not necessarily that I go too overweight on a few players (40 or 50% for a couple plant-my-flag guys is totally normal) but rather that I am too UNDERweight on other players. Who have I not been drafting that I probably should? Through 130 drafts 61 drafted WRs may be a bit low IDK.

10 percent is usually balanced. 20 percent is overw weight, but even if 30 percent is balanced for you, then you are almost 70 percent overweight. That is a lot.
umm no 30% is considered balanced by the best ball experts that I've read and talked to.

But not it isn't a lot more at all even if we did agree on 30%. That is 65 shares and if I draft another 100 BBs which I plan to do, and only take him in say 20/100, I'd end up at 85/230 or 37% which is not nearly as overweight as right now. That is typically how I draft as the offseason unfolds into August anyway, I reevaluate and see ok who am I too heavy on who am I light on. Ands unless you're maxing these contests out which I am not, then it makes more sense to be balanced but to also plant some flags. That is the best chance to outleverage the field. If I'm wrong on Jamo or he gets hurt then yeah that hurts. But like I said he is 1/61 WRs and I only have a few others that are over.

But I do take offense that you think it's crazy to be that high. In my opinion and according to everyone I've read, 10% is definitely UNDERweight.
 
through ~130 drafts.
:laugh:

I'm doing things wrong...

And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy.
well 30% is considered balanced at the high end. So it isn't really that far off. Out of 61 WRs in my best ball portfolio, there are only 5 that would be considered overweight on (over 30%). Jamo happens to be number 1. That isn't crazy that's a bell curve. And for me right now it's probably a left-handed bell curve in that I have more guys I'm underweight on than over.

The biggest danger is not necessarily that I go too overweight on a few players (40 or 50% for a couple plant-my-flag guys is totally normal) but rather that I am too UNDERweight on other players. Who have I not been drafting that I probably should? Through 130 drafts 61 drafted WRs may be a bit low IDK.

10 percent is usually balanced. 20 percent is overw weight, but even if 30 percent is balanced for you, then you are almost 70 percent overweight. That is a lot.
vehemently disagree, plus I don't understand where you think your wisdom is coming from if you think 130 drafts is crazy. You're obviously not a high volume guy so I mean why should I listen to you? I say that with respect but really if the idea is foreign to you in the first place, maybe don't get into it???
 
Depends on where you play. Underdog ADP is already mid round 8. FFPC he is still a round 10ish pick.

Question for you, or anyone:

Do you prefer most players around his ADP, you think he's overvalued?

I ask because I am NOT a Jameson guy, at least not in terms of WR2 upside, but when I look at the overall ADP, there aren't too many guys I would take over him. Guys going after him are Brian Thomas, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Lockett.......meh...even if you aren't a Jameson truther, just seems like a more than fair spot to take a shot on him.

As far as wrs go I like Jameson a lot more than the other guys in his range. There are some other players at other positions I like better. It really depends on the site, how the draft has gone so far and the settings of the league.
 
through ~130 drafts.
:laugh:

I'm doing things wrong...

And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy.
well 30% is considered balanced at the high end. So it isn't really that far off. Out of 61 WRs in my best ball portfolio, there are only 5 that would be considered overweight on (over 30%). Jamo happens to be number 1. That isn't crazy that's a bell curve. And for me right now it's probably a left-handed bell curve in that I have more guys I'm underweight on than over.

The biggest danger is not necessarily that I go too overweight on a few players (40 or 50% for a couple plant-my-flag guys is totally normal) but rather that I am too UNDERweight on other players. Who have I not been drafting that I probably should? Through 130 drafts 61 drafted WRs may be a bit low IDK.

10 percent is usually balanced. 20 percent is overw weight, but even if 30 percent is balanced for you, then you are almost 70 percent overweight. That is a lot.
vehemently disagree, plus I don't understand where you think your wisdom is coming from if you think 130 drafts is crazy. You're obviously not a high volume guy so I mean why should I listen to you? I say that with respect but really if the idea is foreign to you in the first place, maybe don't get into it???

Lol. I think it is crazy to have any player that high of a percentage not the volume of drafts, but wow okay. I am probably sitting at 400+ teams right now between Underdog, FFPC, MFL and Sleeper, but you do you.
 
through ~130 drafts.
:laugh:

I'm doing things wrong...

And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy.
well 30% is considered balanced at the high end. So it isn't really that far off. Out of 61 WRs in my best ball portfolio, there are only 5 that would be considered overweight on (over 30%). Jamo happens to be number 1. That isn't crazy that's a bell curve. And for me right now it's probably a left-handed bell curve in that I have more guys I'm underweight on than over.

The biggest danger is not necessarily that I go too overweight on a few players (40 or 50% for a couple plant-my-flag guys is totally normal) but rather that I am too UNDERweight on other players. Who have I not been drafting that I probably should? Through 130 drafts 61 drafted WRs may be a bit low IDK.

10 percent is usually balanced. 20 percent is overw weight, but even if 30 percent is balanced for you, then you are almost 70 percent overweight. That is a lot.
umm no 30% is considered balanced by the best ball experts that I've read and talked to.

But not it isn't a lot more at all even if we did agree on 30%. That is 65 shares and if I draft another 100 BBs which I plan to do, and only take him in say 20/100, I'd end up at 85/230 or 37% which is not nearly as overweight as right now. That is typically how I draft as the offseason unfolds into August anyway, I reevaluate and see ok who am I too heavy on who am I light on. Ands unless you're maxing these contests out which I am not, then it makes more sense to be balanced but to also plant some flags. That is the best chance to outleverage the field. If I'm wrong on Jamo or he gets hurt then yeah that hurts. But like I said he is 1/61 WRs and I only have a few others that are over.

But I do take offense that you think it's crazy to be that high. In my opinion and according to everyone I've read, 10% is definitely UNDERweight.

If you have 60 percent Jamo at his ADP that means you have 40 percent of the 12ish players around his ADP. So a little over 3 percent each player. So extremely overweight on him and extremely underweight on everyone else in that range.
 
through ~130 drafts.
:laugh:

I'm doing things wrong...

And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy.
well 30% is considered balanced at the high end. So it isn't really that far off. Out of 61 WRs in my best ball portfolio, there are only 5 that would be considered overweight on (over 30%). Jamo happens to be number 1. That isn't crazy that's a bell curve. And for me right now it's probably a left-handed bell curve in that I have more guys I'm underweight on than over.

The biggest danger is not necessarily that I go too overweight on a few players (40 or 50% for a couple plant-my-flag guys is totally normal) but rather that I am too UNDERweight on other players. Who have I not been drafting that I probably should? Through 130 drafts 61 drafted WRs may be a bit low IDK.

10 percent is usually balanced. 20 percent is overw weight, but even if 30 percent is balanced for you, then you are almost 70 percent overweight. That is a lot.
vehemently disagree, plus I don't understand where you think your wisdom is coming from if you think 130 drafts is crazy. You're obviously not a high volume guy so I mean why should I listen to you? I say that with respect but really if the idea is foreign to you in the first place, maybe don't get into it???

Lol. I think it is crazy to have any player that high not the volume, but wow. I am probably sitting at 400+ teams right now between Underdog, FFPC, MFL and Sleeper, but you do you.
thenyour previous comments make no sense whatsoever. you weren't saying you thought I was crazy for having him that high - that is you backtracking your story. and it's BS. We were 100% talking about rostership so yeah you do you and change the story. if you had *actually* said it was because I had him ranked him that high, then we would have had a conversation about that. this is literally what you said and it is right there in your own quote FFS:

"And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy."

that is bush league backtracking. not interested in engaging further.
 
It's a ****ing bell curve distribution FFS this is elementary school stuff. Yes there are going to be outliers yes I am overweight on Jamo but so what? It ****ing happens.
 
through ~130 drafts.
:laugh:

I'm doing things wrong...

And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy.
well 30% is considered balanced at the high end. So it isn't really that far off. Out of 61 WRs in my best ball portfolio, there are only 5 that would be considered overweight on (over 30%). Jamo happens to be number 1. That isn't crazy that's a bell curve. And for me right now it's probably a left-handed bell curve in that I have more guys I'm underweight on than over.

The biggest danger is not necessarily that I go too overweight on a few players (40 or 50% for a couple plant-my-flag guys is totally normal) but rather that I am too UNDERweight on other players. Who have I not been drafting that I probably should? Through 130 drafts 61 drafted WRs may be a bit low IDK.

10 percent is usually balanced. 20 percent is overw weight, but even if 30 percent is balanced for you, then you are almost 70 percent overweight. That is a lot.
vehemently disagree, plus I don't understand where you think your wisdom is coming from if you think 130 drafts is crazy. You're obviously not a high volume guy so I mean why should I listen to you? I say that with respect but really if the idea is foreign to you in the first place, maybe don't get into it???

Lol. I think it is crazy to have any player that high not the volume, but wow. I am probably sitting at 400+ teams right now between Underdog, FFPC, MFL and Sleeper, but you do you.
thenyour previous comments make no sense whatsoever. you weren't saying you thought I was crazy for having him that high - that is you backtracking your story. and it's BS. We were 100% talking about rostership so yeah you do you and change the story. if you had *actually* said it was because I had him ranked him that high, then we would have had a conversation about that. this is literally what you said and it is right there in your own quote FFS:

"And 50 percent of any player in that many drafts isn't a little overweight. That is crazy."

that is bush league backtracking. not interested in engaging further.

WTF are you even talking? I have been saying the entire time that having that much of Jamo or anyone is extremely overweight for that many drafts and that is crazy.

If you are doing 5 drafts in a year then who cares go get your players, but when you have over 100 teams you need to be balanced because an injury or two will ruin you.

Quit being so sensitive about fantasy football.
 
It's a ****ing bell curve distribution FFS this is elementary school stuff. Yes there are going to be outliers yes I am overweight on Jamo but so what? It ****ing happens.

I just said it was crazy to me and you lost your mind. Go have a beer and relax, it is an internet forum about pretend football.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.

So much better than Puka or Kyren last year at the your draft.

Reading is not a strong point. Those were not obvious picks. Jamo is a slam dunk for being 1000 yard WR. Why not put $100 on it since you think he is a bust.
 
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I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.

So much better than Puka or Kyren last year at the your draft.

Reading is not a strong point. Those were not obvious picks. Jamo is a slam dunk for being 1000 yard WR. Why not out $100 on it since you think he is a bust.

You are right. Reading isn't your strong point because that isn't what I said and you know it.

I have been around here long enough to form my own opinions about who I would trust and who I wouldn't. You rank really low on that list.

You just said Jamo is the easiest draft steal ever. He isn't even close in fantasy drafts or the NFL draft.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.

So much better than Puka or Kyren last year at the your draft.

Reading is not a strong point. Those were not obvious picks. Jamo is a slam dunk for being 1000 yard WR. Why not out $100 on it since you think he is a bust.

You are right. Reading isn't your strong point because that isn't what I said and you know it.

I have been around here long enough to form my own decisions about who I would trust and who I wouldn't. You rank really low on that list.

You just said Jamo is the biggest draft steal ever. He isn't even close in fantasy drafts or the NFL draft.

You rank even lower. You swear you never attack me. You swear you would stop making comments against me. But here you go again. Just don't post at me or hit me with your endless laughing emoji like you promised you would. Keep your word for once.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.

So much better than Puka or Kyren last year at the your draft.

Reading is not a strong point. Those were not obvious picks. Jamo is a slam dunk for being 1000 yard WR. Why not out $100 on it since you think he is a bust.

You are right. Reading isn't your strong point because that isn't what I said and you know it.

I have been around here long enough to form my own decisions about who I would trust and who I wouldn't. You rank really low on that list.

You just said Jamo is the biggest draft steal ever. He isn't even close in fantasy drafts or the NFL draft.

You rank even lower. You swear you never attack me. You swear you would stop making comments against me. But here you go again. Just don't post at me or hit me with your endless laughing emoji like you promised you would. Keep your word for once.

Literally never attacked you, and never said any of that other stuff. You just like to make things up, like me calling Jamo a bust.

People are allowed to disagree and post about it.
 
who here has drafted more than 10 BB teams this year?


382 teams on Underdog (107 WR)

Largest ownership at each position

57% Jaylen Wright
46% Christian Watson / 17% Jamo - wish i had more
36% Jordan Love
27% Isiah Likely

100 BBM5 teams (90 WR) as another reference

I see a lot of folks in the content space get nervous once they get over 20% on guys.

Like you I don't mind planting a flag.

Probably need a best ball thread.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.

So much better than Puka or Kyren last year at the your draft.

Reading is not a strong point. Those were not obvious picks. Jamo is a slam dunk for being 1000 yard WR. Why not out $100 on it since you think he is a bust.

You are right. Reading isn't your strong point because that isn't what I said and you know it.

I have been around here long enough to form my own decisions about who I would trust and who I wouldn't. You rank really low on that list.

You just said Jamo is the biggest draft steal ever. He isn't even close in fantasy drafts or the NFL draft.

You rank even lower. You swear you never attack me. You swear you would stop making comments against me. But here you go again. Just don't post at me or hit me with your endless laughing emoji like you promised you would. Keep your word for once.

Literally never attacked you, and never said any of that other stuff. You just like to make things up, like me calling Jamo a bust.

People are allowed to disagree and post about it.
Just keep it simple and stop posting anything towards me like you said on the other thread you would.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.

So much better than Puka or Kyren last year at the your draft.

Reading is not a strong point. Those were not obvious picks. Jamo is a slam dunk for being 1000 yard WR. Why not out $100 on it since you think he is a bust.

You are right. Reading isn't your strong point because that isn't what I said and you know it.

I have been around here long enough to form my own decisions about who I would trust and who I wouldn't. You rank really low on that list.

You just said Jamo is the biggest draft steal ever. He isn't even close in fantasy drafts or the NFL draft.

You rank even lower. You swear you never attack me. You swear you would stop making comments against me. But here you go again. Just don't post at me or hit me with your endless laughing emoji like you promised you would. Keep your word for once.

Literally never attacked you, and never said any of that other stuff. You just like to make things up, like me calling Jamo a bust.

People are allowed to disagree and post about it.
Just keep it simple and stop posting anything towards me like you said on the other thread you would.

I didn't and I won't. It isn't my fault you can't have a civil conversation. Grow up.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.

So much better than Puka or Kyren last year at the your draft.

Reading is not a strong point. Those were not obvious picks. Jamo is a slam dunk for being 1000 yard WR. Why not out $100 on it since you think he is a bust.

You are right. Reading isn't your strong point because that isn't what I said and you know it.

I have been around here long enough to form my own decisions about who I would trust and who I wouldn't. You rank really low on that list.

You just said Jamo is the biggest draft steal ever. He isn't even close in fantasy drafts or the NFL draft.

You rank even lower. You swear you never attack me. You swear you would stop making comments against me. But here you go again. Just don't post at me or hit me with your endless laughing emoji like you promised you would. Keep your word for once.

Literally never attacked you, and never said any of that other stuff. You just like to make things up, like me calling Jamo a bust.

People are allowed to disagree and post about it.
Just keep it simple and stop posting anything towards me like you said on the other thread you would.

I didn't and I won't. It isn't my fault you can't have a civil conversation. Grow up.

A simple yes would do instead of all the other crap you pile on and pretend you don't. It is really quite easy, just stop.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.
I think there are too many mouths to feed to make that happen. dont get me wrong, its a nice problem to have but Williams will really have to work to get the love he needs in the pass game to be productive. Not saying its impossible but hes got an uphill climb.

I do agree he improves on last years totals. but not by as much as some think.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.
I think there are too many mouths to feed to make that happen. dont get me wrong, its a nice problem to have but Williams will really have to work to get the love he needs in the pass game to be productive. Not saying its impossible but hes got an uphill climb.

I do agree he improves on last years totals. but not by as much as some think.
He has a very big uphill climb to true fantasy relevance. But he's two years removed from injury, third year in the same offense, has enough talent to be drafted #12 overall while recovering from an ACL, has plenty of talent around that defenses will be focusing on and by all accounts is truly locked in (most likely on that next payday).

If the scouts were right about his talent level, no reason to doubt Detroit's scouts, and he's truly as locked in as we are hearing, he could absolutely finish, from a fantasy perspective, as the Lions #1 pass catcher. ARSB is virtually certain to have more receptions.

Williams has crazy speed, suddenness and it looks like he has great balance and vision. With all the talent around him on offense driving defenses crazy the sky is the limit for Williams.

He's undervalued ATM.
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.
I think there are too many mouths to feed to make that happen. dont get me wrong, its a nice problem to have but Williams will really have to work to get the love he needs in the pass game to be productive. Not saying its impossible but hes got an uphill climb.

I do agree he improves on last years totals. but not by as much as some think.
And what if the talk of his improvement is real? And you only had to spend a 9th/10th round pick, at the moment, to find out. That's exactly the risk/reward ratio I'm looking for in the later rounds. I'm looking for upside at the end of my bench, not bye week fill-in numbers that I can get off waivers. If he busts, so what? It's not like I spent valuable draft capital on him. And sometimes that upside turns into OBJ or Michael Thomas, who I stashed at the end of my bench in all my leagues their rookie years.
 
who here has drafted more than 10 BB teams this year?
I'm at 40. I've been a pretty big fantasy player for a decade, but just kind of got into these bestball leagues basically as a way to mock, but with people not messing around as there's money on the line. Last year did a few $5 yahoo ones and then got a bit addicted and did the 50 max. Tripled my money, so this year am doing 50 of the more expensive $20 ones.

I think having that much jamo isn't an issue... you're getting him late round.... if he busts, you probably won't kill your team and should easily still be able to break even if you draft well otherwise. If he blows up, you're going to be making a ton of cash.

A player like this is worth the risk to go buck wild on and draft in a huge percentage of bestballs
 
I think people are underselling Williams's potential a little bit. If he wasn't coming off the injury he likely would have been the first receiver off the board and with good reason. You expect guys drafted that highly to be true difference makers and Williams certainly appeared to have that kind of talent.

If a talented guy like that suddenly adds an ARSB level work ethic there really is no limit to his ceiling.

Of course he will be capped by all the other talent on this offense but, if he is truly as locked in as we are hearing he could finish as the Lions #1 fantasy asset.

The Lions offense will have two top 20 WR, a top 3 TE, the top RB duo in yards, the top OL, and a top 5 QB in yardage and rating. Jamo is a slam dunk pick and it is absurd where he is being drafted. Jamo is the easiest steal of the draft pick ever.
I think there are too many mouths to feed to make that happen. dont get me wrong, its a nice problem to have but Williams will really have to work to get the love he needs in the pass game to be productive. Not saying its impossible but hes got an uphill climb.

I do agree he improves on last years totals. but not by as much as some think.
And what if the talk of his improvement is real? And you only had to spend a 9th/10th round pick, at the moment, to find out. That's exactly the risk/reward ratio I'm looking for in the later rounds. I'm looking for upside at the end of my bench, not bye week fill-in numbers that I can get off waivers. If he busts, so what? It's not like I spent valuable draft capital on him. And sometimes that upside turns into OBJ or Michael Thomas, who I stashed at the end of my bench in all my leagues their rookie years.
I dont disagree. I'm just saying I dont think hes a top 20 WR like was suggested earlier. hes provides a nice upside at this point in the draft (if you can get him)

I'm not by any means saying dont draft him. I'm saying you dont draft him as a starter. for fantasy hes a good bench guy with enough upside he could become a fantasy starter if things fall right for him. for sure hes a bye week streamer if the matchup is good.

he does provide more upside than this, but this is what you count on when drafting him at this point in your draft.
 
who here has drafted more than 10 BB teams this year?
completed a few hundred BB teams on underdog this year. Exposure calculation: there are 12 Teams drafting and a player can only be drafted once per draft. So the math is 1/12 or 8.333% to be chalk with the field. Being 16% is double the field. Anything near 30% is planting your flag and pray he doesn't get hurt.

limiting exposure protects you from worst case outcomes like Nick Chubb or Justin Jefferson getting injured last year. those hurt me quite a bit. Losing a top pick could kill 8% or 30% of your teams depending upon exposure. it just makes sense to limit your max exposure when entering a high volume of contests. if you are only entering a small number of teams, disregard exposure and have fun. draft your guys.

since this is a Jamo thread, my exposure is too low around 2%. i like him, but he falls in a sweet spot for picking up RB/QB & TE and most drafts are a WR avalanche on underdog. i typically roll with the WR onslaught target selecting 5 WR in first 7 rounds. Feels pretty good when your WR5 is Rashee Rice, so I'm not too concerned with WR in middle rounds until the roster fills out. A few times snagged him on builds with SF/DET players for stacks/bring backs.
 
who here has drafted more than 10 BB teams this year?
completed a few hundred BB teams on underdog this year. Exposure calculation: there are 12 Teams drafting and a player can only be drafted once per draft. So the math is 1/12 or 8.333% to be chalk with the field. Being 16% is double the field. Anything near 30% is planting your flag and pray he doesn't get hurt.

limiting exposure protects you from worst case outcomes like Nick Chubb or Justin Jefferson getting injured last year. those hurt me quite a bit. Losing a top pick could kill 8% or 30% of your teams depending upon exposure. it just makes sense to limit your max exposure when entering a high volume of contests. if you are only entering a small number of teams, disregard exposure and have fun. draft your guys.

since this is a Jamo thread, my exposure is too low around 2%. i like him, but he falls in a sweet spot for picking up RB/QB & TE and most drafts are a WR avalanche on underdog. i typically roll with the WR onslaught target selecting 5 WR in first 7 rounds. Feels pretty good when your WR5 is Rashee Rice, so I'm not too concerned with WR in middle rounds until the roster fills out. A few times snagged him on builds with SF/DET players for stacks/bring backs.
I don't disagree with most of that but there three very important caveats, one of which I posted originally above and you also pointed out here - if you aren't maxing out then have fun - I'm gonna plant some flags because I am nowhere near maxing these things out and that brings me to caveat 2 that I failed to mention but is a cornerstone of my drafting philosophy regardless of format:

There are fantasy managers that say any player is worth drafting if the price is right. I could not possibly disagree more and feel very strongly that my sustained success over the years has largely been a function of exploiting that single fundamental misunderstanding (it's ok if others disagree I'm just stating where I'm coming from). And so when you talk about one player being drafted per round and that therefore 1/12 = 8.3% to be even with chalk - yes that is the exactly correct baseline to be thinking from. But there are numerous players I WILL NOT DRAFT PERIOD. I'm not here to argue the point of why or not just saying those "avoid" players on my lists over the years have been proven to be a correct take around 75% of the time so I'm going to stand by my method on that.

What that means (still in caveat 2 space here) is that there might be something closer to 7-9 players in each round I'm happy to draft. So the baseline chalk % bumps to a range of 1/7 or 1/9 so 11-14%.

What I have argued and so have several bigtime players in the BB community is to be at that lower range (like what I'm saying 11-14%) to be fully balanced at the *low* end. The high end of that balanced range when you factor in the notion of not being a maxed-out tourney player and having a smaller portfolio than many, and therefore planting some flags, it is around 25-30%.

That brings me to caveat 3, which I attempted to explain a couple times above, but is crucially missing in folks criticism, is that my rostership is a bell curve. I don't pray for players to avoid injury. I acknowledge that they're *going* to happen. Hence the need and desire for variance and to not be overweight. Which is why my portfolio of WRs looks the way it does. And as we sit here in the beginning of August I started by acknowledging I was over on Jamo and that I needed to make adjustments to the bell.

Being overweight on a couple players out of 61 is NOT strange or a killer to your squad even if they get hurt. Especially at WR.

Ok one more, around 3/4 of my annual investment hasn't even happened yet. Raw rostership numbers are good to look at but the actual weighted $ portions may look quite different by week 1. My big drafts aren't until late August/September. I treat these BB spreads like mock drafting but with the chance to win huge prizes, do typically a little better than break even, and get just tons of data and info going into preseason where we start getting flooded with new draft crowds and major information from teams.
 
Talking about exposure makes sense when you are taking about guys whose ADP has been accurately assessed. When a guy is severely undervalued, it is different. Would you be afraid of too much exposure on Puka last year expending only a late round pick if you knew he was going to explode? You would be silly not to have 100 percent exposure on picking up that insane value.

Goff is extremely particular on who he targets, probably more so than any QB in the league. If he does not trust you to be in your spot when you are suppose to, he will not even look for you. It took Jamo last year to really figure out he needs to be a perfectionist and not just rely on has speed and agility. Jamo is being elevated from WR4/WR5 to WR2 with no competition. But for some unexplained reason, the FF gods of ADP are evaluating him as if those WR5 target rates will be the same as when he is WR2. They are not accounting for the huge step in focus and maturity Jamo has taken and the chemistry and confidence he has built with Goff and Ben Johnson.

Goff and the coaches have all raved about Jamo's progress, to the point where Goff's main emphasis going into this season is improving his deep ball accuracy. Detroit was last in the league last season at taking deep shots down field. Jamo is going to have a significant role in the best offense in the NFL possessing physical skills less than a handful of players have.
 
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