kutta
Footballguy
And Chase had by far his biggest game of the year (63 fantasy points in week 10) when Higgins was out.
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WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bracie Smathers
- Start date
BubbaFridge
Footballguy
I do not understand why JSN’s ADP is so much higher than T McMillen and C Ridley.
Seems like very similar situations in terms of QBs and target shares.
Seems like very similar situations in terms of QBs and target shares.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
A huge part of it is age and the general arc of players careers. McLaurin and Ridley will be 30 this year. JSN is 23. So we have two players who we perceive as likely having their best days behind them and another who likely hasn't played their best football yet.
With McLaurin, he's been very consistent during his career. Excluding his rookie season, between 117 and 134 targets, 1002 and 1198 yards every year. Last year was actually that career low 117 targets. His yards were middle of the road. The one big thing that changed was he scored 13 TDs after scoring 18 TDS in the prior 4 years combined. So I think a lot of fantasy forecasters are seeing McLaurin's targets go down, ypr stay pretty normal and then questioning that TD number as out of line for what he or any other WR should be scoring given the usage he had.
With Ridley, it's two fold. There is a general lack of enthusiasm for Cam Ward that we rarely see from a #1 overall pick. Plus the Titans in general are a bit of an overlooked team. They just aren't sexy at all. Add in that we are 5 years removed from the only WR1 season Ridley ever had and it feels like there isn't much upside.
JSN being a 1st round pick, being 23 and playing for a QB who just had 4300/35 it's easier to see upside where he finishes as a clear WR1 on the season perhaps even pushing for the NFL lead in receptions. I am not sold the Darnold we saw last year is the Darnold we will see in 2025 but I think this is the general idea for their ADPs.
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BubbaFridge
Footballguy
Thanks for the response.
I was talking about McMillen though not McLaurin.
McMillen is a young stud WR whose situatiom is almost identical to JSN’s. He is widely expected to command the lion’s share targets in NC and reports have been positive on Bryce Young this preseason. Not that BY will be great but good enough. Similar to Darnold.
Ridley is older but missed a year for that gambling suspension and looked dominant with Ward in that first preseason game.
Both Ridley and McMillen have talent and imo are better than average WRs at minimum.
I just don’t see a two to three round difference here.
I was talking about McMillen though not McLaurin.
McMillen is a young stud WR whose situatiom is almost identical to JSN’s. He is widely expected to command the lion’s share targets in NC and reports have been positive on Bryce Young this preseason. Not that BY will be great but good enough. Similar to Darnold.
Ridley is older but missed a year for that gambling suspension and looked dominant with Ward in that first preseason game.
Both Ridley and McMillen have talent and imo are better than average WRs at minimum.
I just don’t see a two to three round difference here.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I easily prefer a proven WR in JSN to Tet. The risk is all on the Tet side there. JSN had a breakout year last year and will be WR1 on his team this year.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Whoops hadn’t finished my coffee yet lol. I would say Tet is lower priced because we haven’t see him on the field in the NFL yet and there’s a chance he’s not good. Also Bryce Young has never had a year like Darnold just did.
I'm with you, I see those guys as similar tier players as JSN. I think people are pricing JSN as if they didn't switch OC or QB. I see JSN as a 4/5 turn guy, but he's pretty consistently going round 3. What really gets me is seeing JSN going over the likes of Kittle or Daniels. Elite players at other positions.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
That's like your opinion man. Jaxon >>>>>>>>>> Ridley
Jaxon >>>>>>>> The other guy
I'd probably take JSN over Ridley, I wouldn't over McMillan.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Even in redraft?
Yeah. I think JSN is gonna miss Grubb a ton, as he frequently called quick screens instead of runs. Unless Kubiak completely changes what he's done in his past, I think JSN could drop 20+ receptions this year, and that's not even getting into the QB downgrade. I think JSN is in the WR 20-25 range.
I can see the argument for him over McMillan, but to me that isn't a pro-JSN case, its an anti-Bryce Young case.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
At JSN adp, his profile is expected to win you weeks. He had a few game logs that were fantastic but that was in the high volume offense. In PPR I can see him justifying some of the cost but in half and standard he's not someone that I am targeting. The TD's don't seem high enough and his YPR / boom plays just aren't often enough either.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Love the discussion. It's what makes this nerdy hobby fun. Good info. I get the Jaxon doubters. He has primarily been used in slot and analytics say he struggles outside against man. I get those numbers. I just feel his athleticism is being underrated a bit. His ability to win one on one is being underrated. His ability to attack the ball is being underrated. He isn't just a possession receiver with good hands. He has improved each season and is gonna improve a bit in year three. Offensive scheme change and qb change is a concern. For sure. Darnold is decent. Offensive coordinator should realize he needs to get his best wr the ball. They are gonna do that. I got a 17 game floor of 1300 yards and 9 tds. I also see upside to sneak into that top 10 wr range. Imo
crushedspirit
Footballguy
One would say a 59% target share on top of his production today might be quite good.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Yes sir.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
221 target pace if Darnold and the Seahawks keep up their 23 passing plays per game.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
So much for him being a 11 YPR guy. I did not see this coming either!
JJ Zachariason (@lateroundqb.bsky.social)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw a 59.1% target share in Week 1. That's the fifth-highest weekly mark from any wide receiver in the regular season since 2011. JSN saw 13 targets on 23 routes run, when Cooper Kupp saw 3 targets on 26 routes run.
bsky.app
General Malaise
Footballguy
Was up in Seattle this summer for Mariner games, right next to where the Seahawks play and this city is ALL IN on JSN. His face is everywhere you look, all over the stadium, billboards, etc. I know that's not the secret recipe for success, but this team was ready to make JSN the focal point as soon as last season ended.
massraider
Footballguy
Amon ra st brown vibes.
The key is to draft WRs with long names, I think
The key is to draft WRs with long names, I think
-OZ-
Footballguy
Better grab KeAndre Lambert-Smith now!
Born to Run
Footballguy
Started him over Caleb in a SF league. We will see how it works out.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
2 games
17 receptions
227 yards
23 targets
tds will come
Yes sir.
17 receptions
227 yards
23 targets
tds will come
Yes sir.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Amon Ra Jr
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