The Big Donkey
Footballguy
My guess in early February. Giants at #11.
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WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
ZWK
Footballguy
Two Waddle stats.
First: Waddle finished his college career with 15.03 yards per target (1999y/133t), which is the second highest that I know of behind 2007-08 Brennan Marion who had 16.36 YPT (2356y/144t).
Marion had a 57% catch rate and 28.7 YPR.
Waddle had a 80% catch rate and 18.9 YPR.
So he was superproductive when targeted, and not just from boom-bust bombs.
Second: Waddle had about 3.6 or 3.7 yards per route run for his career, which is really good. For comparison, Devonta Smith had 4.39 YPRR in his Heisman winning 2020 season and Ja'Marr Chase had 3.52 YPRR in his Biletnikoff winning 2019 season.
(Waddle had 4.38 YPRR this year according to the PFF draft guide (591y/135rr) and 3.44 YPRR in 2018 according to Fox Sports (848y/246rr). I don't know how many routes he ran in 2019, but PFF does have his snap counts for all 3 years and he ran a route on 56% of his snaps in both 2018 & 2020 so if we assume it was the same in 2019 then he had 3.40 YPRR that year and 3.66 YPRR for his career.)
So he was superproductive when he was on the field.
It's just that he was often on the bench in 2018-19 behind Jeudy, Smith, and Ruggs, and then this year he got hurt after 4 games.
First: Waddle finished his college career with 15.03 yards per target (1999y/133t), which is the second highest that I know of behind 2007-08 Brennan Marion who had 16.36 YPT (2356y/144t).
Marion had a 57% catch rate and 28.7 YPR.
Waddle had a 80% catch rate and 18.9 YPR.
So he was superproductive when targeted, and not just from boom-bust bombs.
Second: Waddle had about 3.6 or 3.7 yards per route run for his career, which is really good. For comparison, Devonta Smith had 4.39 YPRR in his Heisman winning 2020 season and Ja'Marr Chase had 3.52 YPRR in his Biletnikoff winning 2019 season.
(Waddle had 4.38 YPRR this year according to the PFF draft guide (591y/135rr) and 3.44 YPRR in 2018 according to Fox Sports (848y/246rr). I don't know how many routes he ran in 2019, but PFF does have his snap counts for all 3 years and he ran a route on 56% of his snaps in both 2018 & 2020 so if we assume it was the same in 2019 then he had 3.40 YPRR that year and 3.66 YPRR for his career.)
So he was superproductive when he was on the field.
It's just that he was often on the bench in 2018-19 behind Jeudy, Smith, and Ruggs, and then this year he got hurt after 4 games.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm going to admit I have a bias against small WRs. I'm just not a fan. I recognize this guy and many others in this draft as having elite everything else, though. Someone sell me.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm not going to. I have a serious problem with a lot of the top WRs basic height and weight measurements in this rookie class. Waddle and Smith are two problems as far as I can see.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I can accept the idea that a good big bodied WR is, in general, more desirable than a good small guy.
But IMO there are a lot more really good "smaller" WRs than you might think (especially if you're slightly liberal with the definition).
Hill
Diggs
Lockett
Cooks
Dionte J
Fuller
Crowder
Sanders
Hilton
Mooney (interested to see him this next year)
John Brown
But IMO there are a lot more really good "smaller" WRs than you might think (especially if you're slightly liberal with the definition).
Hill
Diggs
Lockett
Cooks
Dionte J
Fuller
Crowder
Sanders
Hilton
Mooney (interested to see him this next year)
John Brown
There was a time I felt this way but that kind of went away over the years as I saw more and more success stories of smaller WR's to the point I would not consider it an outlier. Antonio Brown and his 6 year run of dominance which I feasted on in several teams I'd say it's fair to say makes me hard to hate smaller WR's.
But let me ask, what do people consider small?
Zyphros
Footballguy
Usually me too, not with Waddle though. He is THE most dynamic WR in this class. Used a lot on screens and in space, over the middle and in a variety of ways. Played multiple WR positions at Alabama, learned them all.
I hated Ruggs, I hated Ross, I hated Brown, not a big Isabella fan from recent memory of small high profile rookies. The versatility I'm sold on, the efficiency is a bonus.
rockaction
Footballguy
Under six feet to me, but I could be convinced about 5'11" being about right these days. Seems like a lot of guys in this draft listed at 5'11". Would love to have a combine to sort it out. I saw on Twitter today how LSU generally overstates players' height by about an inch to an inch and a half and Chase is listed at 6'1". If you look at him in a picture standing next to DeVonta Smith, he looks shorter. Just food for thought.
ZWK
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Waddle (5'10"/182)
No I don't know. I'm just envisioning sitting on the clock somewhere around 1.05/1.06 and if the top 3 backs are gone I would have a decision between him, Bateman or moving back. I may move back.
I think my bias is rooted in a belief (that is also tenuous) that smaller WRs really require the right system to flourish (for FF). But I'm not sure scheme/fit matters less for a more prototypical WR size.
I don't put a number on the size and I acknowledge it isn't a very defendable opinion. But I'm trying to acknowledge that's where I'm coming from and to challenge myself against it. This draft has a number of elite smaller guys. Obviously the next Antonio Brown, Marvin Harrison, Tyreek Hill would be great.
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rockaction
Footballguy
It worries me that the fact that they're small might preclude most of them from becoming "elite."
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rockaction
Footballguy
I have the 1.04 and 1.05 in one league. I'm in the same frame of mind as you, down to the player, even.
I read that in a tweet from Jim Nagy. Said if they overstate Chase the way they overstated Jefferson he should come in similar size to Kadarious Toney in the 5'11"/190'ish range.
Waddle yes and then it's a little hard to quantify.
Devonta Smith should measure over 6" but he's built like Allen Iverson and that's small. Meanwhile Tyreek Hill is short but he has more power then a lot of bigger receivers.
I think for me and probably everyone you want it all, size, speed, good film and stats. But I'm not really turned off by smaller receivers as much as say I'm usually leery of receivers who don't run great routes.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah route running chops is one of the biggest traits I look for. And I know these guys are really good at it.
Which guys specifically? I'm not seeing much about Waddle's routes, specifically. Best I can see is that one writer says he's good at one route, and has good footwork. This does not make him a route technician, but he certainly has the skills to become one.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'll have to look again but there a number of small WRs coming out that I have seen a blurb here or there that they were really good at route running. I need to revisit this and other stuff for each WR in the class again. My comment was just in passing but I haven't really dove in that deep yet. Still mostly hustling through cuts and moves and my board is taking *some* shape but I'm not there yet.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Basically I'm going to be a lot more inclined to take a somewhat smaller receiver if I think their route running is elite or top notch.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Dont you think these numbers are at least partially because of the small sample size?
So why compare him to his team mate Smith by this metric when you know Smiths opportunity and sample of performance is much greater than Waddle?
I think we know that with more volume numbers like this tend to normalize themselves.
If Waddle is so good then why was he behind Jeudy, Smith and Ruggs? I am guessing its because the coach thought those players gave them a better chance of winning than Waddle because they are better football players.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I have them ranked as:
1) Ja'Marr Chase
2) Jaylen Waddle
3) Rashod Bateman (some will scoff th6at I didn't pick Smith here. So sue me)
4) Devanta Smith
5) Rondale Moore
6) Terrace Marshall
7) Elijah Moore
8 - Kadarius Toney
9) Dyami Brown
10) Tamorrion Terry
A lot will have Tylan Wallace, Amon Ra St. Brown, Seth Williams, De'Wayne Eskridge in their top 10, but not me.
Not in my top 10, but my sleepers are Amari Rodgers and Sage Suratt
ETA: My hardest ranking was 8 - Toney and 9 - Brown. I could easily put Brown at 8.
Terry is my swing for the fences pick.
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ZWK
Footballguy
I do like Devonta Smith's production more than Waddle's. I just think that Waddle had good production too.
Your "If Waddle is so good then why was he behind Jeudy, Smith and Ruggs?" point really only applies to his 2019 season.
In 2018, Waddle was a true freshman joining a team that had Jeudy, Ruggs, Devonta Smith, and Irv Smith returning from the previous year. Waddle immediately carved out a significant role on that offense, and finished 2nd on the team in receiving yards (and 3rd in rec tds) with 45/848/7. Jeudy was the clear #1, Waddle/Ruggs/Smith/Smith had fairly similarly sized roles behind him. This is the kind of early breakout that you like to see, IMO. It doesn't count as a breakout according to the standard 20% market share cutoff, but that's just what happens when you have 5 guys like these (in this case, only one of them hit 20%).
In 2019, Irv Smith left, Devonta Smith stepped up and was the co-#1 receiver alongside Jeudy, and Ruggs & Waddle languished behind them as co-#3s (with similar roles & production to 2018). And if anything, Waddle was slightly behind Ruggs & slightly behind what he did in 2018. So that was a negative, as you say.
Then in 2020, Jeudy & Ruggs left and Devonta Smith & Waddle both put up huge numbers as co-#1 receivers for their first 4 games. And they seemed like legit elite producers - people expected them to keep putting up big numbers for the rest of the season. Then Waddle got injured on the opening kickoff of game 5 and that was that. If the college football season had been cancelled at that point then I think analytics guys would've loved Waddle's season. The analytics people doing rest-of-season projections (or DFS projections) after Waddle's 4th game did love Waddle. So I'm inclined to think of this as "Waddle did emerge as an effective receiver in a high volume role, with a bit of extra uncertainty because he only got to show it on the field for 4 weeks" rather than as a fluky "anything can happen over a 4-game stretch" thing.
This is basically the career arc you want to see, even if it's atypical in places. Immediately carved out a significant role as a true freshman, emerged as a high-volume receiver by his 3rd year, had great per-snap and per-target efficiency throughout.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with everything you said ZWK. While Waddles freshman year was not technically a break out by some standards, it was good enough that he has been on my radar since then.
Mostly just playing devils advocate here.
I do think Smith is the more skilled player of the two so I do value him more than Waddle without question, while some think they are even or prefer Waddle. I'm not on board with that.
Mostly just playing devils advocate here.
I do think Smith is the more skilled player of the two so I do value him more than Waddle without question, while some think they are even or prefer Waddle. I'm not on board with that.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well I just took him at 8.10 in my FFPC SuperFlex startup. He isn't really a target of mine and I have no idea how I will feel in June but that seemed way too late for a guy so many people are in love with. All the other names in that range at WR were likely to retain their current value whereas once Waddle goes in the 1st round in the NFL, his price will rise quite a bit. Whether I keep him or not it seemed like a slam dunk there. Other names in that area were Shenault, Juju, Kupp, Jeudy, Golladay, Chark, Sutton, Pittman, R Moore.
Boston
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I have Waddle ranked ahead of all of those guys myself. The only close one is Sutton 6 spots behind. Easy smash from there.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I wasn't really expecting him to be there wasn't even on my radar for the startup. But if anyone in that group is going to climb soon it will be him.
Faust
MVP
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I probbably would have drafted Pittman, Sutton or Jeudy (in that order) head of Waddle. Shenault is probably next.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I like Shenault but ended up taking Chark just a few picks earlier and didn't want to double down on Jags. My thought was once Waddle gets drafted his value will spike above those other names. I also managed to get Pittman in the next round.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I take that back, Shenault was off the board before my pick of Waddle and *then* I took Chark and Pittman in the next round.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Waddle does have that offensive weapon quality to him. Similar to Shenault or Patterson in that regard which makes me nervous about him honestly.
While special teams ability is a plus it doesnt give me a warm and fuzzy feeling about Waddles ability to perform as a traditional WR when many of his best plays are on returns.
While special teams ability is a plus it doesnt give me a warm and fuzzy feeling about Waddles ability to perform as a traditional WR when many of his best plays are on returns.
