I agree with you there, I'm looking for Lockett, if not him Mike Williams and if not him it's between DJ Moore and Josh Gordon and might just go with Gordon if that's the case.WR3 in the mid-6th with a huge run of WEs before him? I don’t mind the gamble.
I got Lockett one pick before & like that way more, and Mike Williams went 2 picks after & I like him better too.
But overall not a terrible pick.
I have a feeling Gordon will be a better play after 2-3 games.I agree with you there, I'm looking for Lockett, if not him Mike Williams and if not him it's between DJ Moore and Josh Gordon and might just go with Gordon if that's the case.
This is a fantastic post. Gloss over it and make excuses and fun all you want, folks, but as a great man recently said, men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie.Josh Gordon’s 2013 season:
• 3rd-of-94 WRs in yards per route run
• 55% catch rate
• 10.4 yards per target
• 111.8 QB rating when targeted
• 11.4 targets per game
Gordon with Patriots in 2018:
• 14th-of-96 in YPPR
• 59% catch rate
• 10.6 YPT
• 117.8 rating
• 6.2 T/G
Numbers don’t lie but generally you can cherry pick stats to promulgate whatever narrative you want out there.This is a fantastic post. Gloss over it and make excuses and fun all you want, folks, but as a great man recently said, men lie, women lie, numbers don't lie.
unless gordon is hurt or smoking rocks, this one is as close to an absolute as is possibleIf we assume:
2. Gordon keeps DT and Harry on the bench
I’ve posted my feelings on Meyers in so many threads but here are the highlights.
But in regards to this is pretty telling and there really is no grey area to it. Cut and dry.Numbers don’t lie but generally you can cherry pick stats to promulgate whatever narrative you want out there.
Thats more of a general comment and not necessarily related to the stats you quoted - but they hardly tell the whole story.
IMO, what Cooks put up a couple of years ago. The issue with Gordon will be how many targets he sees. In games where Gronk didn’t play (25 games), Edelman has averaged almost 12 targets a game. White averaged 8 targets a game.SeniorVBDStudent said:If we assume:
1. Gordon plays 16 games
2. Gordon keeps DT and Harry on the bench
3. Opponents have to respect a strong running game
4. Edelman displays his historic TD rate
5. 45/600/4 from the tight end position
6. Brady bounces back from 2018
What do we project Gordon's numbers to be?
Obviously assumptions 1 and 6 are the points that critics would attack. But for the purposes of this exercise, what is the ceiling?
The numbers also show that Gordon hasn’t played a 16 game season since 2012. The numbers also show that he did not see anywhere near the targets he saw in 2013 in Cleveland.pantherclub said:But in regards to this is pretty telling and there really is no grey area to it. Cut and dry.
But the overall point is the 50 catches. There is enough data now to draw a reasonable conclusion.The numbers also show that Gordon hasn’t played a 16 game season since 2012. The numbers also show that he did not see anywhere near the targets he saw in 2013 in Cleveland.
He had 50 catches his first season and 87 his second. The "over 50 catches" part was slightly misleading.But the overall point is the 50 catches. There is enough data now to draw a reasonable conclusion.
Do you have no appreciation for Gordon getting moderate targets after having been with the team a few games, and no TC?He had 50 catches his first season and 87 his second. The "over 50 catches" part was slightly misleading.
He barely played in the other seasons until last year and caught 40 passes in 11 games for the Patriots.
IMO, the answer lies somewhere between the number of targets he got last year and the insane amount of targets he got in Cleveland in 2013. I would guess that number would be closer to his 2018 target rate than his 2013 target rate based on the Browns roster and style of play and the Patriots roster and style of play.Do you have no appreciation for Gordon getting moderate targets after having been with the team a few games, and no TC?
The targets he got in Cleveland are only insane if you don't believe he's a top tier wide receiver. 160-170 is right around AB, DeAndre, Odell ect.IMO, the answer lies somewhere between the number of targets he got last year and the insane amount of targets he got in Cleveland in 2013. I would guess that number would be closer to his 2018 target rate than his 2013 target rate based on the Browns roster and style of play and the Patriots roster and style of play.
Those particular stats, yes.pantherclub said:But in regards to this is pretty telling and there really is no grey area to it. Cut and dry.
I don't believe Gordon is the same player he was in 2013, but that is mostly irrelevant.The targets he got in Cleveland are only insane if you don't believe he's a top tier wide receiver. 160-170 is right around AB, DeAndre, Odell ect.
That's one way to a buttload of targets, but not the only way. Deandre Hopkins gets a ton in a much different situation.I don't believe Gordon is the same player he was in 2013, but that is mostly irrelevant.
The Browns threw the ball 681 times that year. They ranked bottom 5 in rushing attempts. They were constantly behind with a bottom 10 defense and bottom 5 offense. Willis McGahee led the team in rushing with 377 yards. Gordon was one of two players with more than 2 total TD on the team. He was one of two players over 500 receiving yards. Gordon WAS the offense, and they just forced the ball to him as they just aired it out for four quarters to try to stay in games.
Does that REMOTELY sound like the Patriots situation?
I posted that to me Gordon's upside was that of Cooks, but even that seems like a poor comparison as that was the season NE played without Edelman. I think another reason for concern target wise for Gordon is he typically runs deeper and longer time required to develop routes. NE doesn't run a lot of those and instead tries to have Brady unload the ball in 2 seconds to avoid getting hit. That's why guys like Edelman and White get a ton of targets.That's one way to a buttload of targets, but not the only way. Deandre Hopkins gets a ton in a much different situation.
I want to point out I don't expect Gordon to get 160 targets. Probably more like Cooks in 2017. I dont know though. Trying to predict what the Patriots will do is not always straight forward.
The difference between Cooks and Gordon is the Red Zone. TDs count. Especially sans Gronk.I posted that to me Gordon's upside was that of Cooks, but even that seems like a poor comparison as that was the season NE played without Edelman. I think another reason for concern target wise for Gordon is he typically runs deeper and longer time required to develop routes. NE doesn't run a lot of those and instead tries to have Brady unload the ball in 2 seconds to avoid getting hit. That's why guys like Edelman and White get a ton of targets.
So sure, we can concoct some crazy upside scenarios for Gordon. Moss was 30 his monster year in NE. Gordon is 28. There is a greater than 0 chance that Gordon has a season for the ages. But I wouldn't put the chances of that as being much better than winning the lottery.
NE scored 47 TD on offense last year and Gronk had 3 of them, The RB corps had 23 of them. In the post season, NE scored 11 times and the RB's accounted for 9 of them. The RB's scored 55% of their offensive TD's between the two. Brady frequently audibled at the goal line to either running plays or dump offs to White. Maybe that will change this year, but NE still managed to get the ball into the end zone pretty well.The difference between Cooks and Gordon is the Red Zone. TDs count. Especially sans Gronk.
It’s 2nd.Is 444 pages the all-time record for longest player thread? Has to be, right?
Mods or @Joe Bryant - any way to look that up easily? Just curious...
Two more weeks! Can’t wait.
He also is a much better possession receiver than Cooks, who was something of a one trick pony. Consider also, without Gronk, Gordon is the best option down field against man-to-man. That back shoulder is deadly. From what I saw last year, Brady was not reluctant throwing it up where only Gordon could get it.The difference between Cooks and Gordon is the Red Zone. TDs count. Especially sans Gronk.
Something is changing. The WRs look nothing like last years.NE scored 47 TD on offense last year and Gronk had 3 of them, The RB corps had 23 of them. In the post season, NE scored 11 times and the RB's accounted for 9 of them. The RB's scored 55% of their offensive TD's between the two. Brady frequently audibled at the goal line to either running plays or dump offs to White. Maybe that will change this year, but NE still managed to get the ball into the end zone pretty well.
Last year their top receivers were Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. This year, their top receivers to start the season are Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. Thomas and Harry are unknowns and one of them will probably end up taking snaps from Dorsett. Not sure their receivers are all that different.Something is changing. The WRs look nothing like last years.
2 things: no Gronk, and Gordon didn't just get signed midseason.Last year their top receivers were Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. This year, their top receivers to start the season are Edelman, Gordon, and Dorsett. Thomas and Harry are unknowns and one of them will probably end up taking snaps from Dorsett. Not sure their receivers are all that different.
That seems reasonable assuming a 16 game season (although that certainly seems far from a given that he plays in 16 games). However, in the years TB has been QB, the only 1,000 yard seasons by NE receivers for an outside receiver have been Cooks (1082 in 2017 when Edelman missed the entire season), Moss (1254 in 2009), and Moss again (1493 in 2007).If we're forced to assume a full 16 game season (which we do with just about any projection for any other player), I'm not sure how he doesn't hit 1,000 yards.
Even a somewhat conservative projection of 4k passing yards from Brady....how would you divide that up without Gordon getting to 1k yards (again, if assuming a full 16 games)?
In contrast to TE where TB in 2011 threw 1327 yd's w/ 17 TD's (I'm just saying you appear to gloss over some potential yardage/point's available)That seems reasonable assuming a 16 game season (although that certainly seems far from a given that he plays in 16 games). However, in the years TB has been QB, the only 1,000 yard seasons by NE receivers for an outside receiver have been Cooks (1082 in 2017 when Edelman missed the entire season), Moss (1254 in 2009), and Moss again (1493 in 2007).
There will be a lot of banter and debate, but IMO, if Edelman played all of 2017 then Cooks probably doesn't hit 1,000 yards. If that were the case, then we would be looking at two seasons of Moss and the last one being 10 years ago. Sure, people will say Gordon may be on Moss's level . . .but I am not sure a 42 year old Brady is on a 32 year old Brady level.
Not glossing over anything. How does 2011 numbers for a TE have anything to do with an outside receiver in 2011?In contrast to TE where TB in 2011 threw 1327 yd's w/ 17 TD's (I'm just saying you appear to gloss over some potential yardage/point's available)
Targets? That year Brady had 611 pass attempts and TEs got 237 of them. They combined for 169 of Brady's 402 completions. If we're to spread out Brady's ~380 attempts this season, I'm not giving 230+ of them to that TE group, especially when two of them will start the season not playing.Not glossing over anything. How does 2011 numbers for a TE have anything to do with an outside receiver in 2011?
Every year and every personnel group is different . . . especially in NE. I just posted the numbers. Feel free to project production however you want. Since for some reason 2011 got brought up, the RBs as a grouping had 56 targets that year. Last year they had 163. This training camp, they have made a concerted effort to get more RB's involved as receivers, so I would project that number to go up.Targets? That year Brady had 611 pass attempts and TEs got 237 of them. They combined for 169 of Brady's 402 completions. If we're to spread out Brady's ~380 attempts this season, I'm not giving 230+ of them to that TE group, especially when two of them will start the season not playing.
Also of note, their outside WR that year (Branch) had over 50 receptions.
Any way you allocate all of that in favor of Gordon's now (hopefully) 16 game season would need to be on top of his 40/720/3 line from last year.Compared to last year . . .
Players on the way out include Gronk, Hogan, Patterson, Barner, Hollister, Hill, and Allen. They combined for 1870 YFS and 10 total TD.
Players on the way in (likely) included Harry, Thomas, Meyers, Wason, LaCosse, Bolden, and Harris.
The Patriots offense as a whole accounted for:
6295 yards, 47 TD in 2018. (4258/29 and 2037/18)
6307 yards, 48 TD in 2017. (4418/32 and 1889/16)
6180 yards, 51 TD in 2016. (4308/32 and 1972/19)
Those are the numbers. People can allocate whatever production however they want.
Some folks seem to believe TB12 throws to the best player in the best situation Your points on utilizing RB's seem to indicate even better odd's for Gordon (Defense's may be forced to account restricting limits on other coverage) Now if you preface w/ something like: "When Gordon is covered by the opposing defenses "shutdown corner" I don't expect much" I can say you might be wrong but I would admit it makes some sense considering other viable option(s)Not glossing over anything. How does 2011 numbers for a TE have anything to do with an outside receiver in 2011?
Guess you could argue both Gronk and Moss dispel that notion To which I say maybe Gordon will tooSome folks seem to believe TB12 throws to the best player in the best situation Your points on utilizing RB's seem to indicate even better odd's for Gordon (Defense's may be forced to account restricting limits on other coverage) Now if you preface w/ something like: "When Gordon is covered by the opposing defenses "shutdown corner" I don't expect much" I can say you might be wrong but I would admit it makes some sense considering other viable option(s)
The biggest reason I don't see Gordon getting a ton of targets is due to his routes taking way longer to develop and that exposes Brady to a lot more hits. Between their running game and their defense, NE doesn't need to be taking a lot of shots downfield. As I mentioned several times, I think Gordon opens up the running game and the underneath routes more than the running game and underneath routes open things up for Gordon. Maybe I will be wrong on that one, but I don't see Gordon being a target monster.Some folks seem to believe TB12 throws to the best player in the best situation Your points on utilizing RB's seem to indicate even better odd's for Gordon (Defense's may be forced to account restricting limits on other coverage) Now if you preface w/ something like: "When Gordon is covered by the opposing defenses "shutdown corner" I don't expect much" I can say you might be wrong but I would admit it makes some sense considering other viable option(s)
I’d say TB12 throws to the open receiver in any situation.Some folks seem to believe TB12 throws to the best player in the best situation Your points on utilizing RB's seem to indicate even better odd's for Gordon (Defense's may be forced to account restricting limits on other coverage) Now if you preface w/ something like: "When Gordon is covered by the opposing defenses "shutdown corner" I don't expect much" I can say you might be wrong but I would admit it makes some sense considering other viable option(s)