WR Julio Jones, Retired (1 Viewer)

[cubbie5150]

Giving serious though to Julio at #1 overall in half-ppr. Crazy talk?

FWIW, no, not at all crazy. My main league is .5 ppr, and if JJ is there for me @ 1.06, I'll be taking him, even if AB is still on the board. (An ower who I now LOVES JJ picks at 1.04, so there is a decent chance I won't have a shot)

 

[TripItUp]

Geez I say I think the guy is going to have 100+ catches, 1,600+ yards and 10 TDs and people are acting like I kicked their dog.

That's how I feel...I have him ranked #1 in non ppr and I'm getting kicked in the balls and insulted because I question his ability in the redzone.

Sheesh.

 

[humpback]

Again, you're using the incorrect comparison- AJ never reached your magical double digit TD number, but he did have his highest and 2nd highest TD totals of his 12 year career in the only two years he was his coach. Ergo, if Julio follows that same path and also has a career high for TDs, that puts him over 10. I've already posted the numbers of how often he targeted AJ in the red zone, which was ~twice as often as Julio was last season. Yet again, how often Linehan and Haley target their guys down there is completely irrelevant to Julio's numbers.

That's nice. It works both ways. The highest and second highest TD total of AJ's career were both under 10 (and that really isn't fair because AJ's highest per season TD rate was the year before Shanny arrived when he had 8 TDs in 9 games 0.89 TD/game, he went had a 0.53 TD/game rate under Shanny). See? I can make the ergo work the other way too.

No, it doesn't work both ways, and no, you can't make the ergo work the other way too.

What is your hang-up with the number 10? Are you inferring that Kyle Shannahan isn't a good offensive coordinator because AJ never hit 10 TDs? You just want to completely ignore the facts that he had career highs under him, and had far higher numbers of targets, receptions, and TDs in the red zone under Kyle than under everyone else he's played for, more than double the red zone numbers that Julio had last year? No idea why you keep pushing this lame narrative when all of the evidence points towards the polar opposite.

By the way- take a guess who the QB coach was in Houston that year...

 

[Chaka]

Again, you're using the incorrect comparison- AJ never reached your magical double digit TD number, but he did have his highest and 2nd highest TD totals of his 12 year career in the only two years he was his coach. Ergo, if Julio follows that same path and also has a career high for TDs, that puts him over 10. I've already posted the numbers of how often he targeted AJ in the red zone, which was ~twice as often as Julio was last season. Yet again, how often Linehan and Haley target their guys down there is completely irrelevant to Julio's numbers.

That's nice. It works both ways. The highest and second highest TD total of AJ's career were both under 10 (and that really isn't fair because AJ's highest per season TD rate was the year before Shanny arrived when he had 8 TDs in 9 games 0.89 TD/game, he went had a 0.53 TD/game rate under Shanny). See? I can make the ergo work the other way too.

No, it doesn't work both ways, and no, you can't make the ergo work the other way too.

What is your hang-up with the number 10? Are you inferring that Kyle Shannahan isn't a good offensive coordinator because AJ never hit 10 TDs? You just want to completely ignore the facts that he had career highs under him, and had far higher numbers of targets, receptions, and TDs in the red zone under Kyle than under everyone else he's played for, more than double the red zone numbers that Julio had last year? No idea why you keep pushing this lame narrative when all of the evidence points towards the polar opposite.

By the way- take a guess who the QB coach was in Houston that year...

Yes it does and yes I can.

Why do you think I am down on Shanny as an OC or ignoring that AJ hit career highs with Shanahan? I'm not, he's great for his #1 WR production. I never denied that. Although you seem to be ignoring that AJ didn't really hit career high TDs under Shanny, he did that under Mike Sherman in 2007 but he got hurt in week 9. Sure 9>8 but 0.89>>>>>0.53

For goodness sakes I am predicting 100+ catches, 1,600+ yards and 10 TDs. That is a monster year by any standard. Why does that bother you? The only thing we seem to disagree with is that you are calling for 14 TDs. BFD, it's the toughest metric to predict. I think 14 could happen I just think it is less likely for Julio than for, say, Dez or A.Brown. It doesn't mean I am guaranteeing the latter will outproduce Julio in that department just that, as with poker, with our incomplete information those are the two I would bet on slightly ahead of Julio. I think Julio outproduces Dez on catches and yards and Brown on yards (catches is going to be very close between those two IMO) it's just the TD thing that seems to be rankling your hide.

Geez.

What say we let it go? I'm on board for that.

 

[humpback]

Again, you're using the incorrect comparison- AJ never reached your magical double digit TD number, but he did have his highest and 2nd highest TD totals of his 12 year career in the only two years he was his coach. Ergo, if Julio follows that same path and also has a career high for TDs, that puts him over 10. I've already posted the numbers of how often he targeted AJ in the red zone, which was ~twice as often as Julio was last season. Yet again, how often Linehan and Haley target their guys down there is completely irrelevant to Julio's numbers.

That's nice. It works both ways. The highest and second highest TD total of AJ's career were both under 10 (and that really isn't fair because AJ's highest per season TD rate was the year before Shanny arrived when he had 8 TDs in 9 games 0.89 TD/game, he went had a 0.53 TD/game rate under Shanny). See? I can make the ergo work the other way too.

No, it doesn't work both ways, and no, you can't make the ergo work the other way too.

What is your hang-up with the number 10? Are you inferring that Kyle Shannahan isn't a good offensive coordinator because AJ never hit 10 TDs? You just want to completely ignore the facts that he had career highs under him, and had far higher numbers of targets, receptions, and TDs in the red zone under Kyle than under everyone else he's played for, more than double the red zone numbers that Julio had last year? No idea why you keep pushing this lame narrative when all of the evidence points towards the polar opposite.

By the way- take a guess who the QB coach was in Houston that year...

Yes it does and yes I can.

Why do you think I am down on Shanny as an OC or ignoring that AJ hit career highs with Shanahan? I'm not, he's great for his #1 WR production. I never denied that. Although you seem to be ignoring that AJ didn't really hit career high TDs under Shanny, he did that under Mike Sherman in 2007 but he got hurt in week 9. Sure 9>8 but 0.89>>>>>0.53

For goodness sakes I am predicting 100+ catches, 1,600+ yards and 10 TDs. That is a monster year by any standard. Why does that bother you? The only thing we seem to disagree with is that you are calling for 14 TDs. BFD, it's the toughest metric to predict. I think 14 could happen I just think it is less likely for Julio than for, say, Dez or A.Brown. It doesn't mean I am guaranteeing the latter will outproduce Julio in that department just that, as with poker, with our incomplete information those are the two I would bet on slightly ahead of Julio. I think Julio outproduces Dez on catches and yards and Brown on yards (catches is going to be very close between those two IMO) it's just the TD thing that seems to be rankling your hide.

Geez.

What say we let it go? I'm on board for that.

Because you keep bringing up the magical 10 TD number like it means anything. When someone has the best seasons of their career under a coach, that generally means the coach was a very good thing for them, regardless of what the raw numbers were. If he would have had 1 more TD to get to 10, would that completely change your opinion? It's just silly. As far as 2007, I just pointed out that Kyle was the QB coach in Houston then- you think he had any say in who his QB targeted?

Your numbers don't bother me, but your ridiculous assertion that Kyle doesn't target his #1 WRs in the red zone is just plain false. I've given the numbers, but then you try to move the goalposts to your magical 10 number, or comparing him to Dez or Brown, which is simply trying to deflect from your incorrect premise about Kyle. I don't care what those guys do, I have no problem with anyone taking them over Julio, this conversation has always been strictly about Kyle and his impact on Julio, specifically in the red zone.

I said I'd give him 12 TDs, not 14, but it doesn't surprise me that you got that wrong as well. I let it go after the first time you made this silly argument, but then you quoted one of my more recent posts and repeated it. In any event, it doesn't bother me if you want to ignore reality, so I'll move on.

 

[eoMMan]

Wow. Dude....

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Julio Jones - WR - Falcons

Falcons signed WR Julio Jones to a five-year, $71.25 million contract extension through 2020.

Jones gets $47 million guaranteed. His new $14.25 million in average annual salary puts Jones slightly ahead of both Dez Bryant and Demayius Thomas, who signed matching five-year, $70 million pacts this offseason. The $47 million guaranteed is $15 million more than Bryant and $12 million more than Thomas, if the initial numbers being reported are correct. All three receivers are equally deserving. Jones has had foot issues in the past, but the Falcons obviously aren't too concerned. With the contract done, Jones can focus on football.

Source: Peter King on Twitter

Aug 29 - 6:28 PM

 

[Grahamburn]

Ian Rapoport ?@RapSheet 5m5 minutes ago
With the release of Phil Taylor, the #Browns now have no one left from their Julio Jones trade haul (Taylor, Little, Marecic, Weeden)

 

[gpthatsme]

Ian Rapoport ?@RapSheet 5m5 minutes ago

With the release of Phil Taylor, the #Browns now have no one left from their Julio Jones trade haul (Taylor, Little, Marecic, Weeden)

Nice post.

 

[Grahamburn]

Ian Rapoport ?@RapSheet 5m5 minutes ago

With the release of Phil Taylor, the #Browns now have no one left from their Julio Jones trade haul (Taylor, Little, Marecic, Weeden)

Nice post.

I couldn't find the Browns' thread. Granted, I didn't look very hard.

 

[humpback]

Lolz.

 

[SameSongNDance]

 

[jurb26]

If he can keep all those fast twitch muscles in his body from exploding he's going to have a monster year.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

#1 FF WR between A.Brown and Julio. Such a beast, he can't be stopped.

 

[White Lightning]

Down 30 going into tonight's game.....There's nothing like doling out a bad beat to a good friend.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Down 30 going into tonight's game.....There's nothing like doling out a bad beat to a good friend.

it's not a bad beat, it's Julio Jones, expected

 

[JetMaxx]

His body will fail him

 

[SameSongNDance]

His body will fail him

stop

 

[SeanTaylor21]

How many screen passes did he pick up 10-12 yards on but had called back due to a hold? At least two that I saw and I was tuning in and out of the game.

Sure everyone can play the "coulda" game but he at least would've been 11/160/2.

 

[BobbyLayne]

How many screen passes did he pick up 10-12 yards on but had called back due to a hold? At least two that I saw and I was tuning in and out of the game.

Sure everyone can play the "coulda" game but he at least would've been 11/160/2.

Pretty sure three got called back.

Julio gonna be the #1 WR in PPR this year. I'm not exactly kicking myself for taking Brown over him, but if he stays healthy, look out.

 

[Chaka]

He looks unstoppable.

 

[Chaka]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

 

[bigmarc27]

Julio Jones looks like Terrell Owens out there right now.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

Well, in all fairness he is already 1/4 of the way to total TDs predicted for him by the "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone" club...

 

[Chaka]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

Well, in all fairness he is already 1/4 of the way to total TDs predicted for him by the "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone" club...

No doubt. And he even got a red zone TD to boot.

I just wish people would not conflate "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone as much as guys like Haley and Linehan" with "Julio won't score double digit TDs".

I don't know how many times I have emphasized those points but it simply isn't getting across because people seem to only focus on the fact that before the season I didn't project Julio with 14+ TDs. Yeesh.

 

[humpback]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

I agree that it's usually premature to do so this early, but when we're talking about the completely ridiculous claim you were making, I'm comfortable in saying that this week should put that nonsense to bed.

In the first half of the first game, Julio had as many TDs from inside the 10 as he had in all of last season, and if his 2nd TD would have been a couple of yards shorter, he would have had as many from inside the red zone as he had in all of last season as well. Again, in the first half of the 1st game.

 

[Shutout]

It is very simple. If you don't think Julio Jones isn't in the top 3-4 mix for the top FF WR play this year then you simply do not understand or you don't own Julio Jones.

 

[Chaka]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

I agree that it's usually premature to do so this early, but when we're talking about the completely ridiculous claim you were making, I'm comfortable in saying that this week should put that nonsense to bed.

In the first half of the first game, Julio had as many TDs from inside the 10 as he had in all of last season, and if his 2nd TD would have been a couple of yards shorter, he would have had as many from inside the red zone as he had in all of last season as well. Again, in the first half of the 1st game.

Okay.

 

[Chaka]

It is very simple. If you don't think Julio Jones isn't in the top 3-4 mix for the top FF WR play this year then you simply do not understand or you don't own Julio Jones.

Did anyone say that he isn't in the mix?

 

[humpback]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

Well, in all fairness he is already 1/4 of the way to total TDs predicted for him by the "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone" club...

No doubt. And he even got a red zone TD to boot.

I just wish people would not conflate "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone as much as guys like Haley and Linehan" with "Julio won't score double digit TDs".

I don't know how many times I have emphasized those points but it simply isn't getting across because people seem to only focus on the fact that before the season I didn't project Julio with 14+ TDs. Yeesh.

Here we go with this straw man again. Julio's projections this year with Shanahan as the OC have absolutely nothing to do with Haley or Linehan.

 

[Chaka]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

Well, in all fairness he is already 1/4 of the way to total TDs predicted for him by the "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone" club...

No doubt. And he even got a red zone TD to boot.

I just wish people would not conflate "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone as much as guys like Haley and Linehan" with "Julio won't score double digit TDs".

I don't know how many times I have emphasized those points but it simply isn't getting across because people seem to only focus on the fact that before the season I didn't project Julio with 14+ TDs. Yeesh.

Here we go with this straw man again. Julio's projections this year with Shanahan as the OC have absolutely nothing to do with Haley or Linehan.

That's nice. And it has nothing to do with my projections for Julio either, it never has. It has to do with my preseason rankings of A.Brown #1, Dez #2 and Julio #3 on my WR board. That seems to have really set you off for some reason.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

For what it's worth, I'm team #TouchdownRegression #TouchdownsFollowYards, so I'm technically crowing after 6 games.

At the time of this post, Julio had 67/912/3 through 10 games. Since that post, Julio has 43/822/5 through 6 games. That's over 2.5 times as many touchdowns per game. His Yard:TD ratio fell from 304:1, (which was historically high), down to 164:1, (which is pretty average).

In other words- oh hey, it turns out that "regression to the mean" is a real thing after all! Who knew?

 

[humpback]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

Well, in all fairness he is already 1/4 of the way to total TDs predicted for him by the "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone" club...

No doubt. And he even got a red zone TD to boot.

I just wish people would not conflate "Shanahan doesn't throw to his WR1 in the red zone as much as guys like Haley and Linehan" with "Julio won't score double digit TDs".

I don't know how many times I have emphasized those points but it simply isn't getting across because people seem to only focus on the fact that before the season I didn't project Julio with 14+ TDs. Yeesh.

Here we go with this straw man again. Julio's projections this year with Shanahan as the OC have absolutely nothing to do with Haley or Linehan.

That's nice. And it has nothing to do with my projections for Julio either, it never has. It has to do with my preseason rankings of A.Brown #1, Dez #2 and Julio #3 on my WR board. That seems to have really set you off for some reason.

Is that how things went down on your planet? Here on Earth, I never even mentioned your preseason rankings until after you brought them up much later, only to say that I don't care about them. We've been disagreeing about how Kyle Shanahan has used his #1 WR in the red zone, and what impact he is going to have on Julio's numbers. In fact, I responded to your much later straw man of ranking the WRs by saying:

"You can stop being obtuse any time you're ready- we've been talking about Julio Jones and what impact Kyle Shannahan is going to have on his TDs. What scheme they run in Dallas, Pitt, or how many TDs Dez or Brown score have absolutely nothing to do with that discussion."

And-

"Your numbers don't bother me, but your ridiculous assertion that Kyle doesn't target his #1 WRs in the red zone is just plain false. I've given the numbers, but then you try to move the goalposts to your magical 10 number, or comparing him to Dez or Brown, which is simply trying to deflect from your incorrect premise about Kyle. I don't care what those guys do, I have no problem with anyone taking them over Julio, this conversation has always been strictly about Kyle and his impact on Julio, specifically in the red zone."

Enjoy your day, wherever you are.

 

[cstu]

Lolz.

I love it when people crow after one game.

For what it's worth, I'm team #TouchdownRegression #TouchdownsFollowYards, so I'm technically crowing after 6 games.

At the time of this post, Julio had 67/912/3 through 10 games. Since that post, Julio has 43/822/5 through 6 games. That's over 2.5 times as many touchdowns per game. His Yard:TD ratio fell from 304:1, (which was historically high), down to 164:1, (which is pretty average).

In other words- oh hey, it turns out that "regression to the mean" is a real thing after all! Who knew?

 

[Shutout]

It is very simple. If you don't think Julio Jones isn't in the top 3-4 mix for the top FF WR play this year then you simply do not understand or you don't own Julio Jones.

Did anyone say that he isn't in the mix?

I just read the 20 or so posts prior to commenting and noticed a lot of "he won't stay healthy" posts which is a roundabout way to hate when you got nothing else. So my point was "you have no argument..He IS that good."

 

[iamkoza]

a sore hammy explains why he missed plays on monday night (59 of 77 snaps).

 

[SameSongNDance]

a sore hammy explains why he missed plays on monday night (59 of 77 snaps).

Yeah, good news is he was able to play through it and Quinn didn't seem worried about it.

Coach Dan Quinn didn’t express much concern about Jones’s status for this week’s game against the Giants.

“We were laughing during the game,” Quinn said, via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “[Jones said,] ‘I’m going with rule two, no excuses.’ He’s a battler.”

Could be coach speak but regardless Thurs. practice is important.

 

[Dizzy]

Gotta love this report:

(RotoWire) Jones (arm) didn't take part in practice Wednesday due to discomfort in his leg.

 

[steelerfan1]

And so it begins...

 

[JetMaxx]

His body will fail him

.

 

[Ilov80s]

Hopefully, it's just minor and they are keeping him fresh. Julio don't need no stinkin practice.

 

[cubbie5150]

Give him every damn Wed off as far as I'm concerned.

 

[zeeshan2]

Around The NFL @AroundTheNFL

Injury roundup: Julio Jones held out of practice due to sore leg http://at.nfl.com/3DKvXtd

2:57 PM - 16 Sep 2015

 

[iamkoza]

Dnp again today. Really hoping he practices tomorrow.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

yeah I didn't like all those quick outs to him at the LOS, seems like a WR as big as him gets hit too much, down the field please.

Hoping he is ok

 

[Dizzy]

NFLN reporting soreness in his hamstring, but experienced before, during, and after the game.

 

[iamkoza]

Dnp again today. Really hoping he practices tomorrow.

taken from this http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13677370/atlanta-falcons-coach-dan-quinn-confident-wr-julio-jones-play-vs-new-york-giants

Jones will not practice Thursday and was held out of Wednesday's practice. Quinn indicated Jones would have full participation during Friday's practice.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Quinn says there's "no doubt" Julio will play on Sunday. I'm really hoping this isn't just coach speak at this point.

 

[RBM]

Quinn says there's "no doubt" Julio will play on Sunday. I'm really hoping this isn't just coach speak at this point.

Yeah it will gradually work it's way down to GTD then we will start hearing the dreaded "decoy" bull####.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Quinn says there's "no doubt" Julio will play on Sunday. I'm really hoping this isn't just coach speak at this point.

Yeah it will gradually work it's way down to GTD then we will start hearing the dreaded "decoy" bull####.

There's definitely some worry here. When you have a guy like Julio which teams have to plan for it just doesn't make sense to rule him our before you have to.

The one reason I'm not full on panicking yet is because he was able to play through it. I mean, he apparently did this with a sore hammy.