TartanLion
Footballguy
Ugh goodness. Have just talked myself into starting him. Spidey sense definitely tingling though
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WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Ugh goodness. Have just talked myself into starting him. Spidey sense definitely tingling though
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Personally, I can live with the decision to start the best (arguably) receiver in the game. Easier to swallow a low total point from him versus watching a tier 3 player bomb while JJ does JJ things on my bench.
TartanLion
Footballguy
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Willingly taken a seat in the same boat
finfansteve
Footballguy
Same here. Have to chose two between metcalf, JJ and chase. As of right now DK is the odd man out
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
And 1 pass attempt
-And a 2 minute drill set before the Half
Boston
Footballguy
i don’t ever remember anyone complaining about JJ having Cousins…Cousins has always been a positive in the world of fantasy.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm not talking about this year or anything. Earlier in his career people were constantly talking about it even though he was an almost immediate breakout. Pretty much any time he had a down game there were a group of people lamenting that he was "stuck" with Cousins.
Boston
Footballguy
I must have missed that…he went 88-1400-7 as a rookie so up until his injuries this year it has been very smooth sailing as a JJ owner and Cousins has been nothing but an asset to him.
I think he looks good. Unfortunately, his QB doesn't
rockaction
Footballguy
Guy is too good to sit. The coach stated that whoever found him on their reads would be the QB for Minnesota. When the organization game plans around you, you're getting the ball most likely.
This is the Mullens/Jefferson show. He's peppering him with targets now.
This is the Mullens/Jefferson show. He's peppering him with targets now.
A TD would be nice
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes. It's not quite a stunning performance. So would more yards and catches be nice. Cheer for Cincinnati to score here. Make it a one-score game. Otherwise, MN is just going to take the air out of the ball.
abrunn1133
Footballguy
What a catastrophic mistake by the Vikings not locking JJ up long term before the season started.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And yet the team only won two of the ten games he played in. The stats don't always tell a complete story.
Super Bowl contending teams (I'm assuming that's still the goal) just don't pay receivers $35m+/year.
I think signing him to the mega contract he "deserves" would be the real mistake.
It's definitely a tough decision for sure. WR's market is kind of crazy and just not sure if it is a good use of resources. Definitely great to have on your team and watch week in and week out but probably not the best way to build a contender. For roster construction purposes it's probably best to hit the FA market for a team that is already contending and have saved money elsewhere (rookie contract for other positions that are performing like elite guys) and just needs to slot in that WR1 to push them over the top. Diggs, Hill, AJ Brown.......none have brought SB wins to their team
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Too much money for a guy who is always open and changes the game almost every time he plays?
JJ is a elite player and I hope they pay him.
JJ is a elite player and I hope they pay him.
FunkyPlutos
Footballguy
I'm so torn by this...I think they HAVE to at least explore what they can get for him but he is such an elite talent, it would be hard to part with him in the hopes of drafting well enough to overcome the loss of such a good player.
BigJim®
Footballguy
It's interesting to wonder what JJ's NFL draft pick value is, and whether there are circumstances where a trade makes sense. For example, if MHJ were to go #1-#3, might Arizona (speculated to draft WR) trade #4 for JJ instead of taking a somewhat unknown rookie? They have projected $44M in 2024 cap space to get an extension done. If Vikes can get to position to take a top 3 rookie QB at 4, and take a different WR in a very deep WR class moving down from #11 for added picks, there are promising WR prospects who could become 1a/1b with Addison. Of course I have Moss/Troy Williamson flashbacks. However, if they (1) solve QBOTF, (2) get younger and cheaper at WR, (3) add draft picks, (4) avoid current/future cap messes overpaying Cousins/JJ and (5) use freed cap $/picks to shore up other critical needs... it has to be considered.
I agree that they have to explore their options here. JJ is a talent for sure but so is Addison and you don't need 2 great wrs at that kind of cost. Yes JJ is better than Addison right now but is that worth crippling the team with his contract.
I feel like they could get more than one 1st for JJ.
Side note - sort of feels like the league really is turning a corner on these big contracts. Yes there is always one team that will do it but it feels like there is less teams willing to do it every year. I mean it happened for the rb market. Have to believe it comes to the wr and QB and de market.
Bosa is good for example but that's a lot of money
I feel like they could get more than one 1st for JJ.
Side note - sort of feels like the league really is turning a corner on these big contracts. Yes there is always one team that will do it but it feels like there is less teams willing to do it every year. I mean it happened for the rb market. Have to believe it comes to the wr and QB and de market.
Bosa is good for example but that's a lot of money
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Having some Madden-esque fun here: I'd consider something like Arizona's 3 and 27 picks if they also include Budda Baker (a guy they're anxious to trade) as a Harrison Smith replacement.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
These WR certainly helped their QB and offenses to rise to a higher level than where they were performing without them.
When a team has a great player then complimentary players can do better around them.
I like Addison and I'm sure he will have some success without JJ but he is so much better as a WR 2 or even 3. Similar to Hutchinson, I don't think he fares as well without Jefferson and of course whoever the QB is as well.
The Vikings have no better player. I think good teams find a way to keep their best players and build off that.
No one pays any WR $35m a year. I don't think anyone pays any WR so much as $25M a year when you strip away the "out" years.
When JJ eventually signs it will be the highest paid contract in history for a WR but I think he'll be land in the $28-30m range when you remove the dummy years at the end most playes never see.
Saying that I think when you are paying a TE north of $15M a year and have a good young cheap WR in Addison I think your point is valid that trading him instead of extending him is something they at least should be talking about and extending him and Cousins together just would not excite me. They'd be looking at an estimate of around $90M a year for just Cousins, Hock and JJ.
BigJim®
Footballguy
Boy, I sure as heck hope the Vikes don't agree that Addison may be best suited as a WR3. If so, mind boggling reach in the 1st round.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
And they needed to consider this when they traded for Hockenson.
If they just trade JJ because of $$ then they never should have traded for Hockenson and give him Jeffersons money.
I won't say it's not intriguing thinking about what the Vikings could get for Jefferson.
I am thinking 3 first round picks or I would rather keep Jefferson.
BigJim®
Footballguy
This is why discussing his trade value is interesting to me. Prior post suggested seeking 4 + 27 for him, and yours suggests his value is less than 3 and may require Vikes kicking in added draft capital. For me, top 5 + added 1st seemed perhaps too optimistic if other teams are jockeying for the final QB, but I would definitely not give away more draft picks on the JJ side. Being young and arguably best WR in the NFL has more value than that, for me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well this is kind of how a worst case scenario goes for the Vikings.
They can't get a top QB then end up settling for a 2nd tier QB who may not work out.
Completely true. But does a WR elevate a team enough to give them SB hopes? I think that is the question here. As a Vikes and JJ fan I definitely would love for them to keep him but I wonder if they are better suited as a franchise trading him ala Herschel Walker to get better faster. Of course, if they do trade him away it would require hitting on the picks they get back to make it worthwhile. i struggle with believing they could do such a thing (hitting on the picks).
BigJim®
Footballguy
Well, and looking at actual results, the Vikes became 1-4 with JJ and then won 5 straight after his injury when Addison/Hockenson picked up the slack. Obviously there are other factors, like improved defense, but it's real life contradiction of other players doing poorly without him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well Addison scored in games that JJ was out. So he was the top WR for parts of last season and did well. Did better with Cousins frin what I recall He did have a couple good games towards the end.
I am basically saying that it is easier for Addison to beat single coverage than double coverage which he would see more as the the top WR than as the 2nd or 3rd option and by 3rd I mean Hockenson getting a lot of targets without Jefferson in the line up, so more like he is the 1 and Addison is still the two. Just not as good.
He had a fantastically good rookie season. I think he has higher upside if JJ stays the focal point of the offense.
Having a great player can lower players around them if the team becomes too reliant on one guy. For example, forcing him the ball. It definitely cuts both ways
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
-Agree AD except Deebo is getting paid pretty well for SF but if KC wins B2B Super Bowls without Tyreek Hill, they've already won w/o him but B2B would cement it.
I follow your thoughts here but it only takes a handful of teams to drive the market
Biabreakable
Footballguy
KC let Hill go so they could pay Mahomes who they already had a lot of money and they decided they couldn't do that and pay Hill (and have a defense).
-Agree AD except Deebo is getting paid pretty well for SF but if KC wins B2B Super Bowls without Tyreek Hill, they've already won w/o him but B2B would cement it.
I follow your thoughts here but it only takes a handful of teams to drive the market
The Vikings do not have Mahomes.
To follow this logic as an example or blueprint other teams should follow would mean the Vikings trading away Jefferson so they could get an elite QB. Maybe one of the 2024 top QBs could become that. Its unknown at this point.-
If the Vikings trade JJ and do not get a elite QB then they will have gotten rid of a elite player for nothing.
I am sure if KC did not have Mahomes and want to do the right thing by paying him a huge contract they would have kept Hill.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
KC let Hill go so they could pay Mahomes who they already had a lot of money and they decided they couldn't do that and pay Hill (and have a defense).
-Agree AD except Deebo is getting paid pretty well for SF but if KC wins B2B Super Bowls without Tyreek Hill, they've already won w/o him but B2B would cement it.
I follow your thoughts here but it only takes a handful of teams to drive the market
The Vikings do not have Mahomes.
To follow this logic as an example or blueprint other teams should follow would mean the Vikings trading away Jefferson so they could get an elite QB. Maybe one of the 2024 top QBs could become that. Its unknown at this point.-
If the Vikings trade JJ and do not get a elite QB then they will have gotten rid of a elite player for nothing.
I am sure if KC did not have Mahomes and want to do the right thing by paying him a huge contract they would have kept Hill.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If the Vikings sign Jefferson without getting a QB they will be... The Vikings.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is kind of nit picky though, right? The Bills and Eagles have been right there. A coin flip play goes the opposite direction or an overtime rule changes a year earlier and they could both be sitting there with rings pretty easily.
I believe Cooper Kupp was the highest paid WR in the league (on his annual salary) the year they won the Super Bowl. And Deebo is currently 7th.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Just because you don't have an elite QB doesn't mean you don't keep the best WR in the game in the beginning of his prime.
Just recently, the Rams kept their high level players and got Stafford.....super bowl.
The Buccaneers kept their high level players, signed Brady.....super bowl.
The 49ers kept their high level players, lucked into Purdy......,in the super bowl right now.
This is all the last 5 years people
All that said, if someone is offering a boatload of picks, you HAVE to listen if you are the Vikings.
The choice then will be those picks plus the cap room, or Jefferson. There IS a tipping point at some point that would favor picks and cap room. How much? I dunno.
But, instead of people making the blanket statement of "two or three 1sts", the quality of those picks matters. Is it picks 1 and 3? Or picks 30 and 32.
That matters
Just recently, the Rams kept their high level players and got Stafford.....super bowl.
The Buccaneers kept their high level players, signed Brady.....super bowl.
The 49ers kept their high level players, lucked into Purdy......,in the super bowl right now.
This is all the last 5 years people
All that said, if someone is offering a boatload of picks, you HAVE to listen if you are the Vikings.
The choice then will be those picks plus the cap room, or Jefferson. There IS a tipping point at some point that would favor picks and cap room. How much? I dunno.
But, instead of people making the blanket statement of "two or three 1sts", the quality of those picks matters. Is it picks 1 and 3? Or picks 30 and 32.
That matters
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In my opinion Justin Jefferson is the best non-QB in the NFL. Even then, there's less than 10 QBs more valuable than him. He's only gonna be 25 next season and has 4 (3.5 I guess) years of nothing but elite play.
If the Vikings deal him, I think it'd be one of the dumbest moves in Franchise history. Just like dealing Randy Moss was, probably even worse as Moss was 28 when he was dealt. Moss went for the 7th pick (Troy Williamson, who peaked at 455 yards in a season) a 7th rounder and LB Napolean Harris (a Raiders 1st rounder 3 years earlier) who played 2 years for the Vikings as a mediocre starter.
As a Bears fan, I'd happily deal the #1 pick straight up for Jefferson and stick with Fields throwing to Jefferson and Moore. But the way the #1 pick is valued, I wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings would have to add a fair amount to that deal. It feels like to me the allure of a top rookie QB prospect has become more valuable than almost any actual NFL player. I ask in all seriousness, how many players are valued above the #1 rookie pick (presumably Caleb Williams) Allen, Burrow, Mahomes, Stroud, probably Lamar, maybe Herbert? I truly don't believe any non-QBs are.
If the Vikings deal him, I think it'd be one of the dumbest moves in Franchise history. Just like dealing Randy Moss was, probably even worse as Moss was 28 when he was dealt. Moss went for the 7th pick (Troy Williamson, who peaked at 455 yards in a season) a 7th rounder and LB Napolean Harris (a Raiders 1st rounder 3 years earlier) who played 2 years for the Vikings as a mediocre starter.
As a Bears fan, I'd happily deal the #1 pick straight up for Jefferson and stick with Fields throwing to Jefferson and Moore. But the way the #1 pick is valued, I wouldn't be surprised if the Vikings would have to add a fair amount to that deal. It feels like to me the allure of a top rookie QB prospect has become more valuable than almost any actual NFL player. I ask in all seriousness, how many players are valued above the #1 rookie pick (presumably Caleb Williams) Allen, Burrow, Mahomes, Stroud, probably Lamar, maybe Herbert? I truly don't believe any non-QBs are.
Boston
Footballguy
Yup...and every offensive lineman drafted will be an All-Pro.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I said 3 first round picks for Jefferson for me to start listening.
No way I trade Jefferson to the Bears and face him 2 times a year? No.
But it would take both of their 1st round picks and a corner or something. Likely more.
