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WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (2 Viewers)

The ONLY caveat here is that there's very little chance the Vikings' defense is as bad as last year. They really had to throw it all over the yard.

 
Biabreakable said:
Wow not a peep on this guy since February. I guess he is established already.

How Justin Jefferson lit the league on fire as a rookie

Every time I hear someone making excuses about a players development because of Covid last year I just cant help but think of this guy.
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This profile seems like a consensus view, at least in the 20 or so podcast / YouTube channels in my rotation. Amazing rookie season, but might be in line for regression. He did have a very distinct combo of ADOT + good YAC. For the reasons outlined below, may not see an uptick in volume. Which begs the Q - do you want to bank on him repeating his historic rookie year efficiency? Looking at hIstorically great rookie WR production (Boldin, Moss, the 1961 AFL guy) suggests they’ll be at least some drop off.

I'm not sure many realize just how difficult it would be for Jefferson to repeat his 2020 season. Not only was he a rookie, which is amazing in it's own right, but to finish with 1,400 yards on just 125 targets is ridiculous. How did that happen? Well, he caught 70.4 percent of his targets... at 15.9 yards a pop. No other wide receiver in the history of the game has totaled 1,400 yards on 125 or less targets. Bottom line... he needs more targets if he's going to live up to expectations because that's unlikely to happen again. With the defense getting back on track with Danielle Hunter (and adding in free agency), do the Vikings trend back to their run-heavy ways? Adam Thielen is a year older, but the chemistry between him and Kirk Cousins is magical. The sky is the limit for Jefferson with his talent, but will the targets follow? Don't forget this is the same team that held Stefon Diggs to 112 or less targets in 4-of-5 seasons.

Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros

Kid’s a stud. Among the range of outcomes is he sees a regression to the mean (little less volume, little less efficiency) & still finishes WR8.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Kid’s a stud. Among the range of outcomes is he sees a regression to the mean (little less volume, little less efficiency) & still finishes WR8.
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His efficiency was elite and will be hard to maintain but I'd actually be very surprised  if his volume does not increase. I think he was like19th in targets last year at just 7.8 a game, that's not a high bar to hit to me.

Similar to AJ Brown, who off the top of my head is the most efficient WR for fantasy purposes I can recall, he could take a massive jump in targets should the starting RB go down or slow down a little. Difference in the two is Henry never seems hurt, can't even recall him being on the injury report. Now he's coming off most rushes a RB has received in last 5 years so who knows but he just seems like a different kind of dude, he seems like he'd slow down before getting hurt.  Dalvin on the other hand has missed 2+ games every year and now he's coming off his biggest workload season in which he had the third most carries a RB has had in last 5 years and he got there missing 2 games.  And while 2 games is not a sample size worth bringing up it's hard to totally ignore Jefferson had 23 targets in those 2 games,  11 and 12.

Jefferson also in general just closed way stronger on targets then he started, as you'd anticipate an ascending player to do. He 81 targets the last 8 games, 44 targets the first 8 games. (and Dalvin's missed games covered both splits)

So for me everything I look at suggests his targets will increase. If things go the way they went second half of the season or an injury knocks out Dalvin the growth could be exponential. But he'll likely need some growth just tomaintain because again the efficiency is hard to duplicate.

 
menobrown said:
His efficiency was elite and will be hard to maintain but I'd actually be very surprised  if his volume does not increase. I think he was like19th in targets last year at just 7.8 a game, that's not a high bar to hit to me.

Similar to AJ Brown, who off the top of my head is the most efficient WR for fantasy purposes I can recall, he could take a massive jump in targets should the starting RB go down or slow down a little. Difference in the two is Henry never seems hurt, can't even recall him being on the injury report. Now he's coming off most rushes a RB has received in last 5 years so who knows but he just seems like a different kind of dude, he seems like he'd slow down before getting hurt.  Dalvin on the other hand has missed 2+ games every year and now he's coming off his biggest workload season in which he had the third most carries a RB has had in last 5 years and he got there missing 2 games.  And while 2 games is not a sample size worth bringing up it's hard to totally ignore Jefferson had 23 targets in those 2 games,  11 and 12.

Jefferson also in general just closed way stronger on targets then he started, as you'd anticipate an ascending player to do. He 81 targets the last 8 games, 44 targets the first 8 games. (and Dalvin's missed games covered both splits)

So for me everything I look at suggests his targets will increase. If things go the way they went second half of the season or an injury knocks out Dalvin the growth could be exponential. But he'll likely need some growth just tomaintain because again the efficiency is hard to duplicate.
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Great post and I think this sums it up.  I do think he'll have positive TD regression, though, as I don't think Thielen is going to score 14 td's on 108 targets/74 receptions again.  I can imagine Jefferson having more targets, roughly the same number of receptions, and closer to 10 TD's.

 
BobbyLayne said:
This profile seems like a consensus view, at least in the 20 or so podcast / YouTube channels in my rotation. Amazing rookie season, but might be in line for regression. He did have a very distinct combo of ADOT + good YAC. For the reasons outlined below, may not see an uptick in volume. Which begs the Q - do you want to bank on him repeating his historic rookie year efficiency? Looking at hIstorically great rookie WR production (Boldin, Moss, the 1961 AFL guy) suggests they’ll be at least some drop off.

I'm not sure many realize just how difficult it would be for Jefferson to repeat his 2020 season. Not only was he a rookie, which is amazing in it's own right, but to finish with 1,400 yards on just 125 targets is ridiculous. How did that happen? Well, he caught 70.4 percent of his targets... at 15.9 yards a pop. No other wide receiver in the history of the game has totaled 1,400 yards on 125 or less targets. Bottom line... he needs more targets if he's going to live up to expectations because that's unlikely to happen again. With the defense getting back on track with Danielle Hunter (and adding in free agency), do the Vikings trend back to their run-heavy ways? Adam Thielen is a year older, but the chemistry between him and Kirk Cousins is magical. The sky is the limit for Jefferson with his talent, but will the targets follow? Don't forget this is the same team that held Stefon Diggs to 112 or less targets in 4-of-5 seasons.

Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros

Kid’s a stud. Among the range of outcomes is he sees a regression to the mean (little less volume, little less efficiency) & still finishes WR8.
Click to expand...
I completely agree that it will be hard for JJ to even match his numbers from last season this year.

He has stated his goal is to do better in 2021 than 2020 from a performance stand point, which as you have pointed out is nearly impossible for him to do. When I heard JJ saying that I was thinking noooo don't set yourself up for failure like that, but who am I to tell him to not have goals?

 
Anquan Boldin career yards per target: 7.9

Randy Moss: 8.8

I’m fine with Jefferson “regressing” to something in that range over 10+ more years.

 
Benjo said:
Anquan Boldin career yards per target: 7.9

Randy Moss: 8.8

I’m fine with Jefferson “regressing” to something in that range over 10+ more years.
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If Jefferson averaged 7.9 yards per target last year, he wouldn't have even hit 1000 yards. 

 
Ilov80s said:
If Jefferson averaged 7.9 yards per target last year, he wouldn't have even hit 1000 yards. 
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8 yards per target is decent and pretty typical for good WRs.

DeSean Jackson has a career yards per target of 9.7 which is better than any other WR I can think of for this metric. At least for the players career. Plenty of guys have done that well for a season or two.

Megatron had a career ypt of 8.9

 
Biabreakable said:
8 yards per target is decent and pretty typical for good WRs.

DeSean Jackson has a career yards per target of 9.7 which is better than any other WR I can think of for this metric. At least for the players career. Plenty of guys have done that well for a season or two.

Megatron had a career ypt of 8.9
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Sure, I am not saying there is anything wrong with 7.9 but if that's his yards per target, Jefferson is going to need more volume or he's going to disappoint people. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Sure, I am not saying there is anything wrong with 7.9 but if that's his yards per target, Jefferson is going to need more volume or he's going to disappoint people. 
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Oh yeah.

Jefferson had 11.2 yards per target last season.

I forget where I heard this but I guess no one has produced as many yards as Jefferson did on such a small market share of the targets.

The play action passing game does have an effect on stats like this,

 
Ilov80s said:
If Jefferson averaged 7.9 yards per target last year, he wouldn't have even hit 1000 yards. 
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True, but he also spent the first two weeks not starting behind Bisi Johnson. Pro rate his week 3-17 production for 16 games with 7.9 YPT and you get 1,074. AKA one less than AJ Brown last year. Not a bad absolute floor with upside for both volume and touchdowns.

 
Benjo said:
True, but he also spent the first two weeks not starting behind Bisi Johnson. Pro rate his week 3-17 production for 16 games with 7.9 YPT and you get 1,074. AKA one less than AJ Brown last year. Not a bad absolute floor with upside for both volume and touchdowns.
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Good point though Brown also missed a couple games last year with injury.

 
I don't want to jump to conclusions, but I feel like whenever guys land like that, and get up like that, its almost 75% of the time a collarbone injury, or an AC joint. Hopefully he's ok.

 
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Ian Rapoport

@RapSheet

·

40m

#Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who went down hard in practice, suffered a separated shoulder or sprained AC joint, source said. Sigh of relief.

 
Adam Schefter

@AdamSchefter

·

46m

Vikings’ WE Justin Jefferson, who left practice today grabbing his left shoulder after he fell to the ground, has a sprained AC joint, per source. “Nothing serious,” per source, but there will be further testing this weekend.

 
Mario Pilato

@mario_pilato

I believe #Vikings WR Justin Jefferson suffered a Grade 1 AC joint sprain. I expect him to be ready for Week 1.

(not a blue check but he is the PFF injury analyst)

 
3 Grades Of Separated Shoulder: Diagnosis And Treatment

with helpful illustrations 

AC Joint Injuries in Football: Background, Diagnosis, and Treatment

What's unique about this injury is that most players are able to play through it if it's only a low grade sprain. The exception involves the quarterback- the AC joint is a major component of the throwing motion, so for them it's much more difficult to continue to play. Recovery time 1-6 weeks.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I’m not a medical 🏥 expert & it’s possible I’ve never stayed at a Holiday Inn express 

 
Figuring out the directional impact of two completely separate variables on Adam Thielen's outlook is an interesting proposition....

A. potential for lingering issue to JJ to increase production

B. potential for boy in a bubble anti-vaccer qb to decrease production

 
Sounds like it was a low degree sprain. He should be ok by the start of the season. Likely before. 

But (there’s always a but) it’s also the sort of thing that can lead to re-injury if he comes down on it again just right. 

I’ll still draft him at his current ADP, and if he falls to the 3rd due to concerns by the injury averse mob, even better. 👍🏼

 
Your AC joint is your acromioclavicular joint. It is usually damaged on impact, not out of rotation, IIRC. General healing time is 4-6 weeks. A "sprain" is actually a dislocation, if I'm not mistaken. I have a "sprained" AC joint. It's really dislocated.

 
Soooo, are we trading him away in keeper leagues?  I have him and when I hear the words 're-injure' and 'lingering effects' when dealing with a player's injuries, I get nervous.

 
Tanner9919 said:
Soooo, are we trading him away in keeper leagues?  I have him and when I hear the words 're-injure' and 'lingering effects' when dealing with a player's injuries, I get nervous.
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Top 10 dynasty asset.  Would take a lot to get me to give him up.

 
Tanner9919 said:
Soooo, are we trading him away in keeper leagues?  I have him and when I hear the words 're-injure' and 'lingering effects' when dealing with a player's injuries, I get nervous.
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Depends on the keeper rules like how long you can keep someone one, how many players you can keep, what other options you have, etc. 

 
Tanner9919 said:
Soooo, are we trading him away in keeper leagues?  I have him and when I hear the words 're-injure' and 'lingering effects' when dealing with a player's injuries, I get nervous.
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I'm having no thoughts like this. Keeper/dynasty I think he's gold. 

 
Biabreakable said:
Yeah good luck with trying to get JJ at a discount.

From my cold dead hands I will give him up.
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I agree but you never know…I was able to trade for him in late June for Chubb, Jarwin, and DPJ (16 team deep league) which i consider a pretty good deal for him.

 
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JoeSteeler said:
I agree but you never know…I traded for him back in June for Chubb, Jarwin, and DPJ (16 team deep league)
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I havent tried to buy him based on the bad news. Maybe I should try.

I know i wont offer anything remotely close to as much as it would take for me to give him up though. Chubb isn't a bad return on him at all though and I can see why you have gone in that direction.

BTW I think Jefferson is going to be fine and should play all 17 games.

 
This is the latest news regarding Jefferson from FBGs

  Vikings | Justin Jefferson expected back soon    Mon Aug 9, 02:07 PM

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (shoulder) should return to practice in the near future, according to head coach Mike Zimmer.

Footballguys view: Fantasy GMs and Vikings fans can breathe a sigh of relief here. Jefferson's shoulder injury was thought to be minor and if he's returning soon that's the case. The Broncos are in town for joint practices before their preseason debut on Saturday. Because of the heated nature joint practices can have, we doubt Jefferson is out there against the Broncos - in practice or the game.

Link to story
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The source of this information leaves a lot to be desired in my opinion since it is just Chris Thompsons twitter feed and his opinion from listening to Mike Zimmers press conference earlier today.

Not that I think Chris Thompson isnt a good source for Vikings information and opinion. I think he is very credible as far as that goes I just dont really trust much that is posted on twitter and what is posted on twitter so brief it never satisfies me as news.

In the press conference above you can hear Zimmers comments about Jefferson. That starts at the 2:55 minute mark.

You cannot believe anything Zimmer says about injuries. That is why he is making the joke about it not being a tweak, which is how he described Hunters injury last season and Hunter missed the whole year.

It does sound positive that Zimmer expects Jefferson back at practice soon and I do think that will be the case here, but you can't consider anything this coach says in regards to injuries as news in my opinion.

 
Justin Jefferson caught 5-of-9 targets for 71 yards in the Vikings' Week 1 loss to the Bengals.

Jefferson was the recipient of a few errant passes from Kirk Cousins so his low catch rate isn't entirely his fault. Nine targes is a good start to the season but that only accounted for 18 percent of Minnesota's passes on the day. Adam Thielen led the team with 10 targets while KJ Osborn tied Jefferson's total. Thielen also operated as the primary end zone receiver once again, notching a red zone score alongside a touchdown from 24 yards out. Fantasy drafters looking for Jefferson to cement himself as the WR1 for the Vikings may be disappointed but he remains a top-12 option at receiver. A high-scoring matchup with the Cardinals next week should give Jefferson a better shot at finding paydirt.
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Justin Jefferson caught 9-of-11 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings Week 3 win over the Seahawks.

Jefferson has led the Vikings in targets in consecutive weeks and now has two scores on the year. The biggest change in Minnesota's passing attack was the lack of K.J. Osborn. He had been a thorn in the side of Jefferson drafters through two weeks but saw just two targets against the Seahawks. Jefferson is averaging 10 targets per game to start the year and Minnesota's defense has been forcing the offense to pass more than coach Mike Zimmer would like. As long as that holds, Thielen and Jefferson can each continue to post WR1 numbers. They get the Browns in Week 4.
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Justin Jefferson caught 6-of-7 targets for 84 yards and one touchdown in the Vikings’ Week 4 loss to the Browns.

The Vikings marched 75 yards right down the field on the opening drive, capping it with a Jefferson 12-yard score, but the offense couldn’t muster anymore points the rest of the day, going three-and-out a handful of times over their next seven possessions. Jefferson also had a long catch negated by a penalty in the second half. Jefferson has scored in three straight games and gets a gorgeous Week 5 draw against the winless Lions and their undermanned secondary.
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Justin Jefferson caught 7-of-8 targets for 124 yards in the Vikings' Week 5 win over the Lions. 

The 100-yard effort was Jefferson's second in three weeks, while he has now caught six-plus passes in four straight games and has yet to be held below five receptions. Jefferson entered halftime with a blockbuster 5/104 but struggled to add on as the conservative Vikings inevitably took the air out of the ball with a lead. One of the least coverable pass catchers in all of football, Jefferson has more than proven himself as a weekly top-five option at wideout. The Panthers are on deck for Week 6. 

Oct 10, 2021, 5:40 PM ET
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Justin Jefferson caught 3-of-5 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings' Week 9 loss to the Ravens. 

Fifty of his 69 yards came on a first quarter touchdown over the top of the Baltimore secondary. From there, Jefferson was mostly ignored by Kirk Cousins, who connected with Jefferson in the fourth quarter near the goal line. The back-and-forth game shaped up as an ideal setting for Jefferson's first monster stat line of 2021; Jefferson drafters will have to be happy with his 17 PPR points against Baltimore. Coming into Week 9 with the 16th most air yards in the NFL, Jefferson remains primed for a strong second half of the season. He should be treated as a high-end WR2 in Week 10 against the Chargers. 

- NBC SportsEDGE
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A lot of dynasty experts may have been saying Chase is the number 1 WR in value. I may be saying poppycock to that. 

 
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