WR Keenan Allen, LAC (2 Viewers)

[tkrull]

I decided to aim for a new window next year and dealt DT for Keenan straight up. Then of course I won two games in a  row and still have a pretty good roster, so I might look to flip him again and change direction. We'll see.

I did the exact same trade in my keeper league. Except I received DT (who won't qualify as a keeper in 2017) and gave up Allen (9th Rd keeper in '17).

I hope KA returns full speed next year, but my hunch is he won't be 100% back to normal until '18.

 

[georg013]

I can't see how he won't be 100 by next season. He was injured in the first half of the first game. He is probably already cutting on it. I know I'm exaggerating here but he should be ready to go by training camp.

 

[tdmills]

I can't see how he won't be 100 by next season. He was injured in the first half of the first game. He is probably already cutting on it. I know I'm exaggerating here but he should be ready to go by training camp.

Jordy Nelson, Dion Lewis, Jamaal Charles, Welker, AP are all examples to show we don't know when players get to 100% after an ACL.

 

[stbugs]

Jordy Nelson, Dion Lewis, Jamaal Charles, Welker, AP are all examples to show we don't know when players get to 100% after an ACL.

How is AP an example? He got his ACL in 2011 late in the season and then played all 16 and had his 200 yard season. Also, how about Benjamin? He's looked solid since training camp even though they were cautious with him. The one thing I remember offseason wise was that both Peterson and Benjamin got noted for working very hard in their recoveries. 

 

[davearm]

How is AP an example? He got his ACL in 2011 late in the season and then played all 16 and had his 200 yard season. Also, how about Benjamin? He's looked solid since training camp even though they were cautious with him. The one thing I remember offseason wise was that both Peterson and Benjamin got noted for working very hard in their recoveries. 

I think his point was, some guys are good to go week 1 (like Peterson)..., for others, week 2 becomes week 5 becomes week 8 etc (like Lewis, Charles).

 

[stbugs]

I think his point was, some guys are good to go week 1 (like Peterson)..., for others, week 2 becomes week 5 becomes week 8 etc (like Lewis, Charles).

Got it. I didn't interpret it that way but I can see it now.

 

[tdmills]

I think his point was, some guys are good to go week 1 (like Peterson)..., for others, week 2 becomes week 5 becomes week 8 etc (like Lewis, Charles).

Dave,

You get me man. I owe you a beer.

Tdmills

 

[zamboni]

SD - Keenan Allen may be ready for workouts - [SIZE=.75em]Sat Nov 26, 04:44 PM[/SIZE]

San Diego Chargers WR Keenan Allen (knee) recently started to work out on a treadmill and expects to be ready for organized team activities during the offseason.

-------

Injuries have obviously been his downfall, but I can't quit this guy. I dropped him in my deep keeper league after the latest injury, and I'm looking to pick him up again (I have Tyrell). Anyone else doing the same?

 

[Otis]

Uh...dropped in a keeper?

Actually, someone did that in my league too. I scooped him up fairly early in the season and will sit on him till next year. Guy has heart, he'll come back quickly. 

 

[zamboni]

Uh...dropped in a keeper?

His contract was up in my league, so I would have lost him anyway. But now I would get a fresh contract by picking him back up.

 

[beef]

allen's done well from a PPG standpoint which keeps his value high, but he can't put together a full season of it.  he reminds me of harvin a few years ago.  his dynasty hype is driven by those who believe he can stay healthy for multiple seasons but that far exceeds his reality value.  allen is an overrated stock.  sell before everyone figures this out.

 

[georg013]

allen's done well from a PPG standpoint which keeps his value high, but he can't put together a full season of it.  he reminds me of harvin a few years ago.  his dynasty hype is driven by those who believe he can stay healthy for multiple seasons but that far exceeds his reality value.  allen is an overrated stock.  sell before everyone figures this out.

listen to this! get what you can now!!!

 

[branch0095]

allen's done well from a PPG standpoint which keeps his value high, but he can't put together a full season of it.  he reminds me of harvin a few years ago.  his dynasty hype is driven by those who believe he can stay healthy for multiple seasons but that far exceeds his reality value.  allen is an overrated stock.  sell before everyone figures this out.

I really like Keenan Allen, but I have to agree with this.  I wouldn't sell him right now as his value is still depressed by being injured while the season is ongoing,  but once spring/summer rolls around and he's back to being looked at as a high WR2, that's when I'd cash out. 

 

[Faust]

Keenan Allen (ACL) estimates he's at 85 percent health.
Allen will be babied along through the offseason program, but remains on pace to be full go for training camp. Allen heads into 2017 having appeared in just 9-of-32 games over the past two seasons, but his upside remains palpable as Philip Rivers' No. 1 receiver.

 
 
Source: Ricky Henne on Twitter

 

[Faust]

 

Keenan Allen (knee) ran routes at full speed during OTAs.
Allen was limited to individual drills, but his recovery has gone as well as possible. He should be fully cleared for training camp. Allen has played only nine games the last two years, but he has a high rebound potential if healthy. That said, Mike Williams could cut into Allen's touchdown count.

 
 
Source: Los Angeles Times 
May 19 - 7:31 PM

 

[FF Ninja]

 He wasn't expected to be full speed at OTAs.

 

[Faust]

Philip Rivers: Keenan Allen 'just as good' as 2015

 

[Gr00vus]

Yes, his 5 to 8 games prior to season ending injury should be nice.

 

[Gr00vus]

:(

 

[xenon]

So what's the word these days on Keenan?  Yes, an injury risk but's lets assume he stays relatively healthy this year..  He was being drafted end 1st early 2nd last year.  He was having a great year in 2015 and prior to his kidney laceration.  Very capable PPR machine yes? no?  Disclaimer, big fan of Tyrell Williams who I was able to get last year off waivers.  Does a healthy Keenan bode well for both of them?

 

[SameSongNDance]

So what's the word these days on Keenan? Yes, an injury risk but's lets assume he stays relatively healthy this year.. He was being drafted end 1st early 2nd last year. He was having a great year in 2015 and prior to his kidney laceration. Very capable PPR machine yes? no? Disclaimer, big fan of Tyrell Williams who I was able to get last year off waivers. Does a healthy Keenan bode well for both of them?

This article throws some cold water on him.

I think the author makes some very valid points. He points to the pace Allen set in 2015 before getting injured as a huge outlier that's unlikely to be replicated for a myriad of reasons; some of them being how Rivers' 661 passing attempts in 15 was by and far a career high (next closest is 582) due to a poor defense and how there's more competition now. It's kind of hard to argue with.

This is all besides his injury history and the fact the schedule looks really bad. 

If he doesn't see volume, coupled with his ypc and lack of RZ looks he could be a bust. I think I'd rather have Cooks, ARob and Jefferey.

I really like Allen so someone talk me out of this.

 

[avina1]

This article throws some cold water on him.

I think the author makes some very valid points. He points to the pace Allen set in 2015 before getting injured as a huge outlier that's unlikely to be replicated for a myriad of reasons; some of them being how Rivers' 661 passing attempts in 15 was by and far a career high (next closest is 582) due to a poor defense and how there's more competition now. It's kind of hard to argue with.

This is all besides his injury history and the fact the schedule looks really bad. 

If he doesn't see volume, coupled with his ypc and lack of RZ looks he could be a bust. I think I'd rather have Cooks, ARob and Jefferey.

I really like Allen so someone talk me out of this.

Was reading a 4for4 article, here's an excerpt. 

"Allen has never been the primary red zone target – In each of Allen's four seasons, San Diego's most targeted player in the red zone has been a non-wide receiver. Last season it was tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry. The year before it was Gates and running back Danny Woodhead(Gates and Ladarius Green led the team at the time Allen went down). In 2014, Allen finished second, but was 7 targets behind Gates. The closest he came was 2013, when he finished two behind Woodhead for the team lead. It's simply been a matter of too many mouths to feed; Allen has converted TDs in the red zone at an above-average rate (28.9%)."

I think Allen is still a solid pick in PPR, but you have Tyrell, Benjamin, Antonio, Hunter, maybe a healthy Mike Williams later in season, Inman still around, and Gordon catching a ton of passes... Keenan is not the only weapon anymore.

I'd still take guys like Pryor, Adams, Cooks over him.

 

[BoltBacker]

If he doesn't see volume, coupled with his ypc and lack of RZ looks he could be a bust. I think I'd rather have Cooks, ARob and Jefferey.

I really like Allen so someone talk me out of this.

I've always thought he was a very good #2 NFL WR that the fantasy community mistakenly THINKS is a #1 WR in the NFL based on volume alone. Much like Jarvis Landry.

As far as Allen seeing enough volume of targets, I would have been much more worried about it if Mike Williams had been a healthy, full-go all summer. Guys like Inman/Benjamin are nothing more than role players unless everyone on the team gets injured like last year(and even then Benjamin found a way to disappoint). I like Tyrell Williams but is he that good or is it a case where Rivers is going to throw for 4k yards even if you give him parking lot attendants from Walmart to throw to? Everyone seems to have convinced themselves what Hunter Henry is going to blossom into based on a tiny amount of targets(and a TD pace that just isn't sustainable once his playing time and targets are ramped up). Lastly, Gordon hasn't finished a season on the field. The fantasy community typically ignores all injuries that happen after the fantasy playoffs but I'm starting to wonder if he can hold up in the NFL. If you look at that depth chart and imagine Gordon getting hurt AGAIN, I wouldn't be that surprised to see Rivers closer to the 661 attempts than the 582 career average. Bottom line, I think there will be plenty of targets to go around in the lac offense and I don't see anyone challenging him as the #1 this season. 

Admittedly, I don't especially like Cooks, ARob, Jefferey though so maybe Allen just doesn't look like a bad choice in comparison to the group you mentioned. In between Amari Cooper and Golden Tate I rarely draft WR's. If I really needed a WR in that range it would be Dough Baldwin/Demaryius Thomas at least in part because I'm risk adverse at that stage of the draft.

 

[abbottjamesr]

I've always thought he was a very good #2 NFL WR that the fantasy community mistakenly THINKS is a #1 WR in the NFL based on volume alone. Much like Jarvis Landry.

I think this as well.  He is a great slot guy that has a knack for getting open.  He plays with a QB that can find him.  So it works out in his favor most the time.  I think T. Williams is the real deal though on the outside.  He is the true #1 on this team.  I think Allen will be fine for FF this year but as a WR2 in non-ppr like Landry or Tate.  

 

[FF Ninja]

This article throws some cold water on him.

I think the author makes some very valid points. He points to the pace Allen set in 2015 before getting injured as a huge outlier that's unlikely to be replicated for a myriad of reasons; some of them being how Rivers' 661 passing attempts in 15 was by and far a career high (next closest is 582) due to a poor defense and how there's more competition now. It's kind of hard to argue with.

This is all besides his injury history and the fact the schedule looks really bad. 

If he doesn't see volume, coupled with his ypc and lack of RZ looks he could be a bust. I think I'd rather have Cooks, ARob and Jefferey.

I really like Allen so someone talk me out of this.

Let me take a shot 

I read quite a bit about Allen prior to last year trying to determine if he was worth it or not, and obviously we don't have any new data on him so I think what I learned is still applicable. He's not a burner, so it's no surprise that the nine route is his worst route, but he is excellent on all other routes, including the post and corner, so there's definitely a chance for his YPR to increase. Due to the system and deficient OL, he was asked to run a very specific set of routes back in 2015 (45% of his routes were either slant or curl) and he excelled at them, but don't let the thought creep in that those are the only routes he's good at. The SD line will again be not very good, but it should be a little better than 2015. As for the red zone looks, that could be just as much of an outlier as his large target volume. The advanced stats show that he's elite at coming down with contested catches, so it would make sense for him to see more red zone work and thus see an increase in touchdowns (as I may have mentioned elsewhere, Amari Cooper is actually below average at contested catches, so he's an example of a guy where I wouldn't project increased touchdowns). The 4for4 article quoted by pbandy backs up the notion that Allen is at least above average in the end zone. 

So I'm not projecting 192 targets for Allen (he's had 96 in his last 32 quarters), but I think he's a pretty safe pick with top 5 upside in PPR, a bit less in 0PPR. If the line holds up, he's likely to see fewer targets but with an increased YPR. If the line breaks down, he's likely to be Rivers' go-to guy so he'll hold down enough volume to offset the fact he's running shorter routes in traffic (where it's hard to get YAC - something that article failed to grasp). 

Also tangentially related, I was down on Mike Williams before the draft. Even if he gets healthy I don't think he'll ever live up to his draft position and I really don't expect him to be a factor this year after a delayed start. 

Side note: I've always thought the numberfire "signature statistic" NEP is garbage. I've heard they've hired some new writers and one or two is good, but it ranks pretty low on my list of worthwhile reads. 

 

[Phenomena]

ALL ABOARD CHOO CHOO CHOO CHOO!!!!!!!!!

But yea I'm in on him hard this year if he's falling to 36+.  He is a target monster when healthy and has had a full year to recover.  Gordon pounds the rock, o-line is somewhat improved, QB is solid, decent TE stretching the middle, he's relatively young and he's not going to be double teamed ever. Reports are he's quick as ever.  Seems like a lock to finish WR5-10 in PPR but you're getting him at a WR20 price.  Basically in exactly the same situation as Jordy was when he came back from injury, only Allen is younger and had two more months of recovery time than Nelson did. I'm sold.

I've only drafted once (got him at 33) but I have a feeling he's going to be on most of my teams.  He's my all-in player this year if is ADP stays around 36-40.

 

[RBM]

A lock for 5-10?  Tough to say a guy with his injury history is a lock for anything. 

 

[BoltBacker]

He's not a burner, so it's no surprise that the nine route is his worst route, but he is excellent on all other routes, including the post and corner, so there's definitely a chance for his YPR to increase. Due to the system and deficient OL, he was asked to run a very specific set of routes back in 2015 (45% of his routes were either slant or curl) and he excelled at them, but don't let the thought creep in that those are the only routes he's good at. The SD line will again be not very good, but it should be a little better than 2015.

I think that's a good note on your part that Allen hasn't been asked to run many other routes and the OL(or lack thereof) may have contributed to his limited use downfield. I still don't understand the belief that the lac OL is going to be any better. They added Okung, who honestly started to looked cooked back in SEA. He didn't change that perception based on how he played in den, imo. And now he's a year older and has the charger medical staff working against him(I think they just upgraded it recently to Jeff Gillooly and Shawn Eckardt.... but I'm sure the Spanos family got one helluva deal on them). Oh yeah, and they invested a third round pick on an interior lineman so that will also fix things. It certainly worked in the case Max Tuerk and Chris Watt. I used to be a charger fan for a few decades, so I've heard this song and dance for awhile. Not picking on you FF Ninja.... it's just I have heard about the OL getting better all summer. This year. And the year before. And the year before.....

Until I see it, I won't believe it. Or at least until they spend more than a 3rd rounder and vet clearly in(past?) the twilight of his career no matter how much money they throw at the guy.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think that's a good note on your part that Allen hasn't been asked to run many other routes and the OL(or lack thereof) may have contributed to his limited use downfield. I still don't understand the belief that the lac OL is going to be any better. They added Okung, who honestly started to looked cooked back in SEA. He didn't change that perception based on how he played in den, imo. And now he's a year older and has the charger medical staff working against him(I think they just upgraded it recently to Jeff Gillooly and Shawn Eckardt.... but I'm sure the Spanos family got one helluva deal on them). Oh yeah, and they invested a third round pick on an interior lineman so that will also fix things. It certainly worked in the case Max Tuerk and Chris Watt. I used to be a charger fan for a few decades, so I've heard this song and dance for awhile. Not picking on you FF Ninja.... it's just I have heard about the OL getting better all summer. This year. And the year before. And the year before.....

Until I see it, I won't believe it. Or at least until they spend more than a 3rd rounder and vet clearly in(past?) the twilight of his career no matter how much money they throw at the guy.

To be fair, my quote was "The SD line will again be not very good, but it should be a little better than 2015." So I think we actually agree. I expect CIN to suck badly enough to bump the Chargers up at least one rank   and maybe Okung will bump them up one or two. But didn't one of their OL draft picks already get hurt? So yeah, this isn't going to be a good unit. I honestly threw that statement in there just so I wouldn't have to argue with any of the Chargers OL apologists (I think they are all Melvin Gordon owners). 

While I really disagree with you about Allen being Landry-esque, I was glad to see someone else mention that Gordon hasn't finished a season yet. I don't get why this guy finishes two seasons on the IR and isn't labelled injury prone, yet Abdullah has one missed time injury in the past 6 years and suddenly he's fragile... I'm off topic, but where I was going with this is that if Gordon gets injured again or he continues his sub-4.0 ypc pace, then they are going to lean on the pass and my projection of 130 targets x 70% = 91 receptions will actually look low. And if Gordon exits near the end of the season again, it won't greatly impact Keenan's total numbers, but it will give him a boost during the fantasy playoffs.

To expand on that projection, I think even if the line is miraculously better and Tyrell and Benjamin are healthy, Rivers likes and trusts Allen enough to give him that kind of target share (22-23%). If things break down with the OL then he could lean on him more or, like you said, if the running game sputters the pass attempts could easily eclipse 600. 

 

[FF Ninja]

A lock for 5-10?  Tough to say a guy with his injury history is a lock for anything. 

How hard you going to ding a guy for a spleen and ACL? I'd be much more concerned about guys with recurring soft tissue injuries like Alshon (similar ADP).

 

[RBM]

How hard you going to ding a guy for a spleen and ACL? I'd be much more concerned about guys with recurring soft tissue injuries like Alshon (similar ADP).

Saying the guy can't be considered a lock for top 10 isn't that big of a ding. 

 

[FF Ninja]

Tough to say a guy with his injury history is a lock for anything. 

This statement is what I was referring to.

 

[RBM]

This statement is what I was referring to.

He's a question mark, no doubt. 

 

[FF Ninja]

He's a question mark, no doubt. 

I'm saying it's way overblown in the fantasy community and the way-too-common one line rebuke of any positive Allen comment. He had a lacerated spleen and a torn ACL. To me that's just a couple bad breaks. I think I saw a stat that Alshon has been questionable for 16 of his last 21 games played. That's much more concerning to me that a spleen and ACL. 

 

[Phenomena]

I'm saying it's way overblown in the fantasy community and the way-too-common one line rebuke of any positive Allen comment. He had a lacerated spleen and a torn ACL. To me that's just a couple bad breaks. I think I saw a stat that Alshon has been questionable for 16 of his last 21 games played. That's much more concerning to me that a spleen and ACL. 

Stop educating the fools.  I'm happy to get him in the early 4th in the rest of my drafts and I'd like to keep it that way. CHOO CHOO!

 

[Hankmoody]

Stop educating the fools.  I'm happy to get him in the early 4th in the rest of my drafts and I'd like to keep it that way. CHOO CHOO!

That ship salied oh, around 2002.  Worst thing that ever happened to sharks in FF is the mass proliferation of information to the heathens.

 

[beerbuff]

A lock for 5-10?  Tough to say a guy with his injury history is a lock for anything. 

The lacerated spleen will have zero effect on him and was a freak thing. The ACL injury was long enough ago for it to be fully recovered. There is really no ore injury risk than any other player.

 

[Jail]

I've always thought he was a very good #2 NFL WR that the fantasy community mistakenly THINKS is a #1 WR in the NFL based on volume alone. Much like Jarvis Landry.

To me, he is so much better than Landry. I think Landry is more of a product of a QB that doesn't throw it downfield enough. So disappointing that Allen went down so early last year. He was having his with with Peters before he went down in that game.  

 

[FF Ninja]

To me, he is so much better than Landry. I think Landry is more of a product of a QB that doesn't throw it downfield enough. So disappointing that Allen went down so early last year. He was having his way with Peters before he went down in that game.  

6 receptions in less than 2 quarters (only 27 snaps)... *sigh*

 

[theplayer11]

allen, hilton, or nuk?..All have question marks and being drafted in round 3.

who would you take?

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Hilton's value is tied to Luck. If you think Luck return before week 3 then Hilton should be #1 in that group.

Allen has no QB concerns but is a risky injury history. If I get no clarity on Luck before my drafts then Allen is #1 in that group.

I am really down on all the Texans because I believe this flood is going to really distract them. That aside, I do not trust the QB situation in HOU, so DHop is #3 in that group.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Anyone else seeing Keenan fall like a rock in recent redrafts?

He pretty consistently went late-3rd in the IBLs (early-mid Aug) but he hasn't been a 3rd-rounder in any draft I've done since - 41st overall in one, 49th in another (albeit a 2-QB format) and, in the most egregious example, I'm one pick away from landing him at what would be 61st overall off the board in a keep-3 10-teamer. Obvious small sample size is obvious but is this a trend?

I was reluctant to pull the trigger on him in the 3rd, but at a late-4th or better value, sign me up.

 

[jon_mx]

A couple of great players are being greatly under valued due to a concern with their history of injuries.  Keenan is perhaps a second rounder who I got in the fifth.  And Gronk is a first rounder who I got mid second.  Both are headed into the season healthy, but a lot of people fear injury potential.  There is very little basis for being able to predict such injuries.  I feel I am going into the season with two first rounder and two second rounders.   We will see if they hold up.  I just think too many people are devaluing these players too much.  

 

[Snorkelson]

Preseason seems to have looked good, caught everything. I've taken him in a few, couldn't pull the trigger yesterday though. He's burned me the last couple years, and I keep taking him. For a 5th rd pick he has a huge ceiling. 

 

[need2know]

Went wr heavy and got him as my wr3 in a PPR in one league.  People seemed scared of his history.  Way worth the risk imo

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Allen did not practice yesterday.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Allen did not practice yesterday.

“Very hopeful”

Also, bringing back the Powder Blues for the Broncos game

I’m sure that 27,000 seat MLS stadium will be rocking.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I’m sure that 27,000 seat MLS stadium will be rocking.

Well it's all about the tradition.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

“Very hopeful”

Seems like every time I have a player that is a gtd it's a late game 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Seems like every time I have a player that is a gtd it's a late game 

Short bench, Fuller on a bye, Parker doubtful - probably have to cut Smallwood for Fowler. 

Allen has 6 TDs in 6 G v. DEN.