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WR Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid (1 Viewer)

laughinboy_2000

Footballguy
Sorry for the delay folks. Been busy with work and a pregnant wife!

Week 14 is here folks, so lets getting some WR analysis rolling!

Exploit

Avoid

Good Start

Neutral

Chicago @ Washington:

Berrian/Moose/Olsen: I don’t like this match up for the Bears. Despite losing Rogers and Taylor, the Skins secondary should be able to control the Bears passing attack. Greg Williams has the Skins playing some solid defensive football. Look for the Skins to cause problems for the Bears passing attack. Bench all of the Bear receivers this weekend.

Moss/Cooley: This duo combined for 23 targets last weekend against the Bills. Moss had one of his better games of the year catching five passes for 63 yards, and should have another productive week against the Bears. Chris Cooley is rolling right now folks, and has had at least five catches in a game the last four week now. He’s also scored twice within the last three weeks. Have confidence in starting him again this week.

Exploit: Santana Moss – 5 catches 60+ yards, TD (That’s right, Moss rewards his owners with his second TD of the year this week! Book it!)

Miami @ Buffalo:

Booker/Hagan: As much as I would like to recommend starting a Miami WR, John Beck just plain sucks! Avoid anything in a Miami uniform!

Lee Evans: I got a good feeling about Evans this week folks. This is a great match up for the Bills and their receivers, and I think Evans has at least one more decent game in him. He makes a good Flex/WR3 option this weekend.

Exploit: Lee Evans 5 catches, 70+ yards, TD

STL @ Cincinnati:

Holt/Bruce/SJax: The value of these guys depends on who is starting at QB for the Rams. Bulger has a concussion, and Frerotte has a shoulder injury. If they both can’t go, the Rams will be forced to start… (take a deep breath) Brock Berlin? Yikes! But this is the Bengals we are talking about. You can’t sit Holt and Bruce, but Bennett is just not getting the job done in the offense. Temper your expectations though if Berlin starts.

Chad Johnson/Housh/Henry: Another week, another good call on Chad Johnson as the Steelers give up some yards to him, but keep him out of the end zone. With that being said, start all of your Bengals this week against the Rams who won’t be able to stop Palmer and the passing game.

Dalllas @ Detroit:

Owens/Crayton/Witten: Do you really need me to tell you how nice this match up is for the entire Cowboy team? They are playing the Lions for crying out loud!

Williams/Calvin Johnson/McDonald: Watch the injury situation with Roy Williams. I don’t see him playing for the rest of the season. That sound you just heard was Calvin Williams’ value for the rest of the year. Get the rook into your lineup this week. Shaun McDonald also makes a nice start with Roy out now.

Exploit: Calvin Johnson – 6 catches, 70+ yards, TD

Oakland @ Green Bay:

Porter/Curry: The Pack can be passed on folks, and that presents some value for Raider WRs. Last week against the Broncos, Porter and Curry each got seven targets, but Porter was the one who found the end zone. Curry is the better receiver of the two, so I think he could have a match up to exploit.

Exploit: Ronald Curry – 5 catches 50 yards, TD

Driver/Jennings/Martin: Although they did cede some yards to Bronco receiver Brandon Marshall, the Raiders pass defense again did not allow a passing TD as I expected. I know Favre and company are rolling offensively, but this Raider defense is very stingy with giving up TD passes and one of my bold predictions this week, is that Favre does not throw a TD. I see the Packers running the ball with Grant and Morency. Running the ball is how to beat the Raiders this year. Sit your Packer WRs this weekend.

Avoid: Packer WRs. (tough match up this weekend and Favre has a bum elbow)

TB @ Houston:

Galloway/Hilliard: QB Luke McCown showed everyone last week that he is capable of running the Buc’s offense and also finding WR Joey Galloway. Galloway caught seven passes for 159 yards in their road win over the Saints. McCown started off red hot as he connected on his first 15 passes. Galloway has been a STUD this year, and he should be able to have his way with the Texan secondary. Ike Hilliard only has one TD this year, but after a brief hot streak, is no longer recommended in a fantasy lineup.

Andre Johnson/Daniels: New QB Sage Rosenfels locked into WR Andre Johnson last week for 14 targets. AJ caught nine of them for 116 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Owen Daniels had a rare off day as the TE only managed three catches for 42 yards. The Bucs have only given up 10 TDs this year through the air, and I think Rosenfels is going to have rough day.

Avoid: Andre Johnson – (tough match up and I don’t see a productive day)

Carolina @ Jacksonville:

Steve Smith: As long as Vinny Testeverde is the Panther’s QB, #89 is still startable and needs to be in fantasy lineups. Smith had a decent game last week catching eight passes for 64 yards, and getting two rushes for 21 yards. The Jags are a mess defensively through the air, and this could be the week we see Stevo in the end zone.

Williams/Wilford/Lewis: Yes, there is some value here simply because the Panther secondary is just not that good this year. I like how Mercedes Lewis has progressed so far this year. He seems to be getting more involved within the offense each week. Despite Vernon Davis not showing up last week, the Panthers are just awful defending TEs. The Jag receivers should have no problems getting open either.

Exploit – Mercedes Lewis – 5 catches, 60+ yards, TD

NYG @ Philadelphia:

Burress/Toomer/Shockey: How in the heck did the Giants win that game last week with as bad as Eli played? Amani Toomer is picking up the slack from Burress who is playing through injuries. Last week, Burress caught six passes for 69 yards and a TD. Every week he seems to be on my Exploit list, but I continue to see him on the waiver wire. Jeremy Shockey continues to be under used if you ask me. They need to get this guy the ball so he can run over some people.

Exploit: Amani Toomer - 5 catches, 70+ yards, TD

Lewis/Curtis/Brown/Westbrook: Ugh… Just when you though AJ Feeley was going to save the Eagles season, he throws an ugly pick at the end of the game in the red zone. Feeley harassed all game long last week and threw four picks in the process. The Giants are ball hawkers and they will be looking to pick some passes off. Feeley seems to be favoring Curtis, as his 13 targets last week led the team. Curtis matches up very well with the G-men.

Exploit: Kevin Curtis – 6 catches, 80 yards, TD

San Diego @ Tennessee:

Gates/Chambers/LT: Wow does Phillip Rivers plain SUCK! I really think the Bolts have some good WRs on their team, but when Phillip can’t even complete half his passes, it just kills their value. Antonio Gates, the best TE in football who is having an amazing year gets one catch for one yard? Please tell me that’s a typo? Chambers is sure glad he’s out of Miami. He’s produced some nice stats since he joined the Bolts. LT is LT. What else is new? Other than Gates, (who you can’t bench) stay away from Charger receivers.

Gage/Williams/Scaife: What got into Vince Young last week? He actually made all three of these guys look like viable options for fantasy teams. I again would roll the dice on either one of these three players, because the Charger secondary is getting lit up.

Exploit: Gage/Williams/Scaife (excellent match up here for the Titan receivers)

Minnesota @ San Francisco:

Rice/Wade: Awesome call last week by yours truly on Sidney Rice as he was able to snag one of Tavaris Jackson’s two TD passes. Bobby Wade caught the only other TD pass for the Vikes. The Vikes passing game has another good match up this week to exploit with San Fran. The 9er’s has given up 19 passing TDs through the air so far this year. If you looking for another sneaky play this week, ride throw in Rice who should be able to duplicate last weeks performance against the 9er’s.

Exploit: Sidney Rice – 5 catches, 60+ yards, TD

Battle/Davis: What a major disappointment last week for Vernon Davis. You can’t blame him though, as the Panther defense was in Dilfer’s face all game long. I like the match up again this week though for Battle and Davis. The Vikes are dead last in pass defense in the NFL, this is rare opportunity to start a 49er WR.

Exploit: Battle/Davis (offense won’t be able to run the ball, so the 49ers will have to throw.)

Arizona @ Seattle:

Fitzgerald/Johnson/Pope: Johnson and Pope are the two to watch here, especially if Fitz misses another game with his injury. Last week Johnson replaced Fitz and was very productive as the plan for the Browns was to take Anquan out of the offense. Johnson had 11 targets and caught six passes for 56 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Arizona’s 6’7 TE Leonard Pope also found his way into the end zone. He could find his roll expand as well if Fitz and Boldin are out this week. Watch out though, the Hawks have only allowed a league low seven TDs through the air.

Exploit: - Bryant Johnson – 6 catches, 70+ yards, TD

Branch/Engram/Burleson: Seahawk QB Matt Hassleback is firing on all cylinders right now. He’s had at least two TD passes in every game except four so far this year. As much heat as Nate Burleson is getting in Seattle, he looked pretty good last week catching four passes for 71 yards and a TD off of eight targets. His TD came when he was wide open made a couple of moves, and then sprinted past the rest of the would be tacklers. WR Deion Branch had his numbered called several times last week, but only managed five catches for 40 yards. Engram was able to pull down his fourth of year last week, and all three receivers are solid plays this week against the Cards.

Exploit: Nate Burleson – 5 catches, 50+ yards, TD

Kansas City @ Denver:

Bowe/Gonzo: Bad spot here for the Chief receivers. Watch the injury to Huard as he took a beating last week and was knocked out. Some dude named Tyler Thigpen replaced Huard and looked awful. Then you have Bly and Bailey on the other side which is never fun.

Avoid: Bowe/Gonzo (Tyler Thigpen? Need I say more?)

Marshall/Stokley/Walker: As predicted here last week, the Raiders held the Broncos passing game in check. They don’t get much easier this week against the Chiefs who have only given up 10 TD passes through the air. However, the Broncos are playing for a playoff spot and playing in front of their home crowd. I’m going to say Cutler has a better day this week than last week. Look for at least one TD from Cutler possibly going to WR Brandon Marshall.

Cleveland @ NYJ:

Edwards/Winslow: The Browns were robbed last week folks. Winslow TD catch at the end of the game was catch, but because of some stupid rule that needs to be changed, they lose the game. Look for another big game from Winslow and Edwards. Both will be getting into the end zone this week, so they are must starts.

Coles/McCareins/Brad Smith: Check the status on Coles, as he is questionable this week and may not start. If he does not start, Justin McCareins should see most of the targets. The Brownies are terrible defensively, so McCareins may be a sneaky start this week. He could find his way into the end zone. Brad Smith found his way into the end zone last week, and is another Jet WR that may be worth considering, especially if Coles is out.

Exploit: Justin McCareins/Brad Smith (Better value here ONLY if Coles does not play)

Pittsburgh @ New England:

This is the game folks, you heard it here first. The Steelers have the defense and offense to upset the Pats and it will happen this week. If they play like they have the last two weeks, the Steelers will take advantage and get the “W”.

Ward/Washington/Holmes/Miller: Teams have had success throwing against the Pats for the last two weeks now. Look for the Steeler WRs to have a good day with Big Ben tossing them the rock. If Holmes does not play, Ward and Miller will have very productive days.

Moss/Welker/Watson: Moss has been very quite the past two weeks, and now he’s got the league’s best pass defense coming to town. I’m not going to use the “Avoid” label with him because he is the best WR in football, but temper your expectations for him. Welker is the guy I think can burn the Steelers. He’s the perfect compliment to Moss who draws the most attention from the secondary. TE Ben Watson is enjoying his best season as a Pro and is always a threat to score when the Pats are in the red zone.

Indy @ Baltimore

Wayne/Clark: Reggie Wayne owners have to be loving life right now. Without the injured Marvin Harrison in the lineup, Wayne has flourished and is the Colts top option. Also benefiting from Harrison’s absence is TE Dallas Clark. Clark like Wayne has a career high nine TDs on the year. Both of these guys are must starts against the Ravens.

Derrick Mason: Raven WR Derrick Mason caught six passes for 67 yards and a TD last week against the Pats. Only one other receiver on the Raven’s team had more than one catch, and that was TE Daniel Wilcox who caught two passes for four yards. That should tell you something about the Raven passing game. Mason is the receiver to start this week, and he’s a marginal start at best.

New Orleans @ Atlanta:

Colston/Henderson: As hot as Colston was coming into the game last weekend, he left ice cold, catching two passes for 39 yards against the Bucs. Other than the Saint RBs, no other receiver within the offense had more than one catch. Weird if you ask me. Anyways, they travel to Atlanta where they should be able to attack through the air. I fully expect Colston to rebound and go over 100 yards and find his way into the end zone. Devery Henderson may catch a couple of long balls and is a threat to score, just like last week’s 45-yarder.

White/Jenkins: Roddy White received a crazy 20 targets last week, and converted it into 10 catches for 146 yards and a TD. White is by far the Falcons best option on offense, and I can see a huge game from White again this week. Look for 80+ yards and a TD from White who should be in all fantasy lineups. Michael Jenkins caught his third TD of the year last week, but should not be in fantasy lineups this week, as White is stealing all the receptions within the offense.

Good luck to everyone this weekend! :popcorn:

 
Great info. You don't help my call on Sidney Rice vs. Justin Gage. I'm leaning on Rice.

Also:

Exploit: Gage/Williams/Scaife (excellent match up here for the Titan receivers)

Isn't the right color.

 
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As always, good analysis. May not be what I want to hear, but still a good analysis.

I understand the advice with regards to Andre Johnson, but I just can't afford to bench this guy. He has been productive in every game, outside of 1, that he has been healthy. I am hoping Sage locks onto him again. If he gets doube digit targets, I have to think he will turn those into fantasy points.

 
Great info as always, Need help though... Who would you start? Steve Smith, S. Rice, or C. Henry? It's seems that you would start Rice? Right?

Thanks

John

 
Great info. You don't help my call on Sidney Rice vs. Justin Gage. I'm leaning on Rice.

Also:

Exploit: Gage/Williams/Scaife (excellent match up here for the Titan receivers)

Isn't the right color.
Yeup, your right. They should be labled Green.
 
As always, good analysis. May not be what I want to hear, but still a good analysis.I understand the advice with regards to Andre Johnson, but I just can't afford to bench this guy. He has been productive in every game, outside of 1, that he has been healthy. I am hoping Sage locks onto him again. If he gets doube digit targets, I have to think he will turn those into fantasy points.
:rolleyes: Don't sweat the analysis on Andre. Rule #1 especially in the playoffs = never sit your studs. Andre is a stud and will get his in this game! 75 and a TD...TB has played 6 WRs of Andre's size (6-3/222) and/or caliber this season:Colston 6'4"/231 = 70 and a TDHolt - 6'0/190 = 63Wayne - 6'0/198 = 62 and a TDRoy W. - 6-2/220 = 23Boldin - 6-1/217 = 40Fitzgerald - 6-3/226 = 95Again, I think Houston throws 30+ passes in this game for 200+ yards a TD and 2INTs. Andre gets 75 and a TD
 
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Driver/Jennings/Martin: Although they did cede some yards to Bronco receiver Brandon Marshall, the Raiders pass defense again did not allow a passing TD as I expected. I know Favre and company are rolling offensively, but this Raider defense is very stingy with giving up TD passes and one of my bold predictions this week, is that Favre does not throw a TD. I see the Packers running the ball with Grant and Morency. Running the ball is how to beat the Raiders this year. Sit your Packer WRs this weekend.

Avoid: Packer WRs. (tough match up this weekend and Favre has a bum elbow)
I think this will be a tight game decided in the 4th quarter. Agreed that the Raider def is stingy, but if Favre is healthy he can exploit them with Driver. Driver runs great routes and he and Favre are always on the same page. I think the Raiders hold down his yards per catch and probably get 2 INTs off Favre, but in the end Driver will get 10+ targets for 60+ and I think he sneeks over the middle for a short TD. Jennings will break lose for a deep one and may get the TD instead of Driver. Besides that, there should be at least 4 other WRs to register a catch because Favre will dink and dunk all game.A little nugget though about the Raiders pass Def....they have actually been better on the road. That's the only thing that worries me.

Grant will definitely be the workhorse.

 
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What if you have both Johnson(AZ) and Engram(SEA) as your #3. who do you go with in a non ppr. Do you play both Engram and Johnson and put Steve Smith on the bench? I am torn. Moss is my #1.

 
Guys, I don't make the lineup decisions for people in here. If you want info on what match ups to Avoid, what matchups to Exploit, and what I consider a good start, read the information above. But I can't tell you who to start. Once I start doing that, and one player gets shut down, I won't hear the end of it. If you want decisions on who to start and who to stick in your lineup, visit the WDIS thread.

Good Luck!

 
Good job, interesting stuff.

I actually like Berrian tonight, as TO tore them up, and Berrian should be able to get behind D tonight that is for sure.

I also feel AJ will get targets and get his underneath, and possibly up top again like last week.

Should be interesting

 
Santana Moss does intrigue me in tonight's game. Without knowing who'll throw to Isaac Bruce, I may opt for Moss instead. (At the same time, I've got to avoid overthinking just 'cos it's a playoff game for me.)

 
Guys, I don't make the lineup decisions for people in here. If you want info on what match ups to Avoid, what matchups to Exploit, and what I consider a good start, read the information above. But I can't tell you who to start. Once I start doing that, and one player gets shut down, I won't hear the end of it. If you want decisions on who to start and who to stick in your lineup, visit the WDIS thread.Good Luck!
First off, thanks for the info. I got Rice off waivers because of this thread last week. I know you don't like the start/not start questions, but you put the exact same thing for them haha. Lets say you had both Moss and Rice (maybe you do) who would you start? I personally think they'll both have dece games. Something tells me moss has more of a chance for more yards but rice is more of a lock for a TD but I could be wrong. I noticed the 49ers give up a lot more TDs to #1 WRs but Moss has been traditionally good late in the year. Ahh this decision is killing me, I've already gone back and forth 3 times. If you even have anymore insight on these match-ups i'd appreciate it. Also, do you do a RB to exploit thread?
 
As always, good analysis. May not be what I want to hear, but still a good analysis.I understand the advice with regards to Andre Johnson, but I just can't afford to bench this guy. He has been productive in every game, outside of 1, that he has been healthy. I am hoping Sage locks onto him again. If he gets doube digit targets, I have to think he will turn those into fantasy points.
:goodposting: Don't sweat the analysis on Andre. Rule #1 especially in the playoffs = never sit your studs. Andre is a stud and will get his in this game! 75 and a TD...TB has played 6 WRs of Andre's size (6-3/222) and/or caliber this season:Colston 6'4"/231 = 70 and a TDHolt - 6'0/190 = 63Wayne - 6'0/198 = 62 and a TDRoy W. - 6-2/220 = 23Boldin - 6-1/217 = 40Fitzgerald - 6-3/226 = 95Again, I think Houston throws 30+ passes in this game for 200+ yards a TD and 2INTs. Andre gets 75 and a TD
Here's the problem I have with this. Colston, Wayne, RoyW, Boldin/Fitz all had at least one other option on offense. Andre does not have that luxery, and I see the Bucs putting double and maybe triple coverages on him to keep him out of the offense. They will make Dayne, or someone else move the offense. You also have to look at the QB situation. Sage is less proven as a QB than any of the above mentioned WRs QBs. Just wanted to show you guys that I did throw in some thought here on the analysis.
 
Guys, I don't make the lineup decisions for people in here. If you want info on what match ups to Avoid, what matchups to Exploit, and what I consider a good start, read the information above. But I can't tell you who to start. Once I start doing that, and one player gets shut down, I won't hear the end of it. If you want decisions on who to start and who to stick in your lineup, visit the WDIS thread.Good Luck!
First off, thanks for the info. I got Rice off waivers because of this thread last week. I know you don't like the start/not start questions, but you put the exact same thing for them haha. Lets say you had both Moss and Rice (maybe you do) who would you start? I personally think they'll both have dece games. Something tells me moss has more of a chance for more yards but rice is more of a lock for a TD but I could be wrong. I noticed the 49ers give up a lot more TDs to #1 WRs but Moss has been traditionally good late in the year. Ahh this decision is killing me, I've already gone back and forth 3 times. If you even have anymore insight on these match-ups i'd appreciate it. Also, do you do a RB to exploit thread?
Me too, I'm umming and arring about Rice, Evans, Driver and Berrian. I just feel that the Vikes are on a roll at the moment and with ADP and Chet seeing 8 in the box Rice has the skills to break away. Evans is at home against the worst team in the league. Can it be any better than that? Driver will probably get 60-70 yards but I may need more than that.
 
As always, good analysis. May not be what I want to hear, but still a good analysis.I understand the advice with regards to Andre Johnson, but I just can't afford to bench this guy. He has been productive in every game, outside of 1, that he has been healthy. I am hoping Sage locks onto him again. If he gets doube digit targets, I have to think he will turn those into fantasy points.
Never bench your studs. But these posts offer great perspective to matchups.
 
As always, good analysis. May not be what I want to hear, but still a good analysis.I understand the advice with regards to Andre Johnson, but I just can't afford to bench this guy. He has been productive in every game, outside of 1, that he has been healthy. I am hoping Sage locks onto him again. If he gets doube digit targets, I have to think he will turn those into fantasy points.
:popcorn: Don't sweat the analysis on Andre. Rule #1 especially in the playoffs = never sit your studs. Andre is a stud and will get his in this game! 75 and a TD...TB has played 6 WRs of Andre's size (6-3/222) and/or caliber this season:Colston 6'4"/231 = 70 and a TDHolt - 6'0/190 = 63Wayne - 6'0/198 = 62 and a TDRoy W. - 6-2/220 = 23Boldin - 6-1/217 = 40Fitzgerald - 6-3/226 = 95Again, I think Houston throws 30+ passes in this game for 200+ yards a TD and 2INTs. Andre gets 75 and a TD
Here's the problem I have with this. Colston, Wayne, RoyW, Boldin/Fitz all had at least one other option on offense. Andre does not have that luxery, and I see the Bucs putting double and maybe triple coverages on him to keep him out of the offense. They will make Dayne, or someone else move the offense. You also have to look at the QB situation. Sage is less proven as a QB than any of the above mentioned WRs QBs. Just wanted to show you guys that I did throw in some thought here on the analysis.
It's good analysis and I can see your side, but there is a definite up side here. If you would have listed him as Neutral I would have agreed, but you had him as Avoid.Sage did throw for 4 TDs at home against Tenn without Andre. Let's not discount Davis, Walter, and Daniels here. Those guys proved they can hurt ya with andre out. So far last week was Sage's only game with Andre and he threw him a TD in a hostile Tenn house. At home on the turf....Sage will force feed Andre the ball. One missed assignment and Andre takes it to the house.
 
Guys, I don't make the lineup decisions for people in here. If you want info on what match ups to Avoid, what matchups to Exploit, and what I consider a good start, read the information above. But I can't tell you who to start. Once I start doing that, and one player gets shut down, I won't hear the end of it. If you want decisions on who to start and who to stick in your lineup, visit the WDIS thread.Good Luck!
First off, thanks for the info. I got Rice off waivers because of this thread last week. I know you don't like the start/not start questions, but you put the exact same thing for them haha. Lets say you had both Moss and Rice (maybe you do) who would you start? I personally think they'll both have dece games. Something tells me moss has more of a chance for more yards but rice is more of a lock for a TD but I could be wrong. I noticed the 49ers give up a lot more TDs to #1 WRs but Moss has been traditionally good late in the year. Ahh this decision is killing me, I've already gone back and forth 3 times. If you even have anymore insight on these match-ups i'd appreciate it. Also, do you do a RB to exploit thread?
Me too, I'm umming and arring about Rice, Evans, Driver and Berrian. I just feel that the Vikes are on a roll at the moment and with ADP and Chet seeing 8 in the box Rice has the skills to break away. Evans is at home against the worst team in the league. Can it be any better than that? Driver will probably get 60-70 yards but I may need more than that.
I may be an idiot for saying this but I've really analyzed the Driver situation this week. I honestly wouldnt start him of these 3. Oak has good pass D and has allowed the fewest TDs in the entire league next to seattle with only 8 TDs. Favre is banged up, and Driver isn't usually a endzone target this year anyways with jennings, Lee, and the 4 WRs package stealing all the TDs.Good analysis on the 8 in the box thing. Though the main thing scaring me from him is that he's really only had good games at home.
 
Guys, I don't make the lineup decisions for people in here. If you want info on what match ups to Avoid, what matchups to Exploit, and what I consider a good start, read the information above. But I can't tell you who to start. Once I start doing that, and one player gets shut down, I won't hear the end of it. If you want decisions on who to start and who to stick in your lineup, visit the WDIS thread.Good Luck!
First off, thanks for the info. I got Rice off waivers because of this thread last week. I know you don't like the start/not start questions, but you put the exact same thing for them haha. Lets say you had both Moss and Rice (maybe you do) who would you start? I personally think they'll both have dece games. Something tells me moss has more of a chance for more yards but rice is more of a lock for a TD but I could be wrong. I noticed the 49ers give up a lot more TDs to #1 WRs but Moss has been traditionally good late in the year. Ahh this decision is killing me, I've already gone back and forth 3 times. If you even have anymore insight on these match-ups i'd appreciate it. Also, do you do a RB to exploit thread?
First, the RB to Exploit/Avoid is usually done by MoP.OK, now maybe I did not type what I meant to say in this previous post. Yes i do recommend starting players in this thread. However, one thing you will never see me do is make decisions for other people as to who they should stick in their lineup. If you see four good starts and can only have three, you are going to have to pick three out of the four. Again, I'm sure you can understand why I don't want to do that.I didn't mean to sound rude and I apologize if I confused people with that post.
 
As always, good analysis. May not be what I want to hear, but still a good analysis.I understand the advice with regards to Andre Johnson, but I just can't afford to bench this guy. He has been productive in every game, outside of 1, that he has been healthy. I am hoping Sage locks onto him again. If he gets doube digit targets, I have to think he will turn those into fantasy points.
:lmao: Don't sweat the analysis on Andre. Rule #1 especially in the playoffs = never sit your studs. Andre is a stud and will get his in this game! 75 and a TD...TB has played 6 WRs of Andre's size (6-3/222) and/or caliber this season:Colston 6'4"/231 = 70 and a TDHolt - 6'0/190 = 63Wayne - 6'0/198 = 62 and a TDRoy W. - 6-2/220 = 23Boldin - 6-1/217 = 40Fitzgerald - 6-3/226 = 95Again, I think Houston throws 30+ passes in this game for 200+ yards a TD and 2INTs. Andre gets 75 and a TD
Here's the problem I have with this. Colston, Wayne, RoyW, Boldin/Fitz all had at least one other option on offense. Andre does not have that luxery, and I see the Bucs putting double and maybe triple coverages on him to keep him out of the offense. They will make Dayne, or someone else move the offense. You also have to look at the QB situation. Sage is less proven as a QB than any of the above mentioned WRs QBs. Just wanted to show you guys that I did throw in some thought here on the analysis.
It's good analysis and I can see your side, but there is a definite up side here. If you would have listed him as Neutral I would have agreed, but you had him as Avoid.Sage did throw for 4 TDs at home against Tenn without Andre. Let's not discount Davis, Walter, and Daniels here. Those guys proved they can hurt ya with andre out. So far last week was Sage's only game with Andre and he threw him a TD in a hostile Tenn house. At home on the turf....Sage will force feed Andre the ball. One missed assignment and Andre takes it to the house.
Houston, I recall lost two starters on their o-line last week, Sage had better have happy feet, cause the Buc's will bring the heat with the revised o-line. I agree it could be a down day for AJ, but I still think you have to start him.
 
Good job, interesting stuff. I actually like Berrian tonight, as TO tore them up, and Berrian should be able to get behind D tonight that is for sure. I also feel AJ will get targets and get his underneath, and possibly up top again like last week. Should be interesting
I agree. Berrian is always a threat to get a deep one. My other choice is Driver and there's just too much going against him.Go Bernard.
 
Exploit

Avoid

Good Start

Neutral
not a big fan of this color coding. The Green and the Black are fine... but when it comes to the Red and Blue I get confused because in FF those colors usually refer to if a player is "hot" or "cold"... and you have em reversed.[/$ 0.02]

 
Exploit

Avoid

Good Start

Neutral
not a big fan of this color coding. The Green and the Black are fine... but when it comes to the Red and Blue I get confused because in FF those colors usually refer to if a player is "hot" or "cold"... and you have em reversed.[/$ 0.02]
I'll take this into consideration.
:thumbup: thanks

(for the time and effort shared first and foremost... for considering my suggestion 2ndly)

 
Sorry for the delay folks. Been busy with work and a pregnant wife!

Week 14 is here folks, so lets getting some WR analysis rolling!

Exploit

Avoid

Good Start

Neutral

Chicago @ Washington:

Berrian/Moose/Olsen: I don’t like this match up for the Bears. Despite losing Rogers and Taylor, the Skins secondary should be able to control the Bears passing attack. Greg Williams has the Skins playing some solid defensive football. Look for the Skins to cause problems for the Bears passing attack. Bench all of the Bear receivers this weekend.

Moss/Cooley: This duo combined for 23 targets last weekend against the Bills. Moss had one of his better games of the year catching five passes for 63 yards, and should have another productive week against the Bears. Chris Cooley is rolling right now folks, and has had at least five catches in a game the last four week now. He’s also scored twice within the last three weeks. Have confidence in starting him again this week.

Exploit: Santana Moss – 5 catches 60+ yards, TD (That’s right, Moss rewards his owners with his second TD of the year this week! Book it!)

Miami @ Buffalo:

Booker/Hagan: As much as I would like to recommend starting a Miami WR, John Beck just plain sucks! Avoid anything in a Miami uniform!

Lee Evans: I got a good feeling about Evans this week folks. This is a great match up for the Bills and their receivers, and I think Evans has at least one more decent game in him. He makes a good Flex/WR3 option this weekend.

Exploit: Lee Evans 5 catches, 70+ yards, TD

STL @ Cincinnati:

Holt/Bruce/SJax: The value of these guys depends on who is starting at QB for the Rams. Bulger has a concussion, and Frerotte has a shoulder injury. If they both can’t go, the Rams will be forced to start… (take a deep breath) Brock Berlin? Yikes! But this is the Bengals we are talking about. You can’t sit Holt and Bruce, but Bennett is just not getting the job done in the offense. Temper your expectations though if Berlin starts.

Chad Johnson/Housh/Henry: Another week, another good call on Chad Johnson as the Steelers give up some yards to him, but keep him out of the end zone. With that being said, start all of your Bengals this week against the Rams who won’t be able to stop Palmer and the passing game.

Dalllas @ Detroit:

Owens/Crayton/Witten: Do you really need me to tell you how nice this match up is for the entire Cowboy team? They are playing the Lions for crying out loud!

Williams/Calvin Johnson/McDonald: Watch the injury situation with Roy Williams. I don’t see him playing for the rest of the season. That sound you just heard was Calvin Williams’ value for the rest of the year. Get the rook into your lineup this week. Shaun McDonald also makes a nice start with Roy out now.

Exploit: Calvin Johnson – 6 catches, 70+ yards, TD

Oakland @ Green Bay:

Porter/Curry: The Pack can be passed on folks, and that presents some value for Raider WRs. Last week against the Broncos, Porter and Curry each got seven targets, but Porter was the one who found the end zone. Curry is the better receiver of the two, so I think he could have a match up to exploit.

Exploit: Ronald Curry – 5 catches 50 yards, TD

Driver/Jennings/Martin: Although they did cede some yards to Bronco receiver Brandon Marshall, the Raiders pass defense again did not allow a passing TD as I expected. I know Favre and company are rolling offensively, but this Raider defense is very stingy with giving up TD passes and one of my bold predictions this week, is that Favre does not throw a TD. I see the Packers running the ball with Grant and Morency. Running the ball is how to beat the Raiders this year. Sit your Packer WRs this weekend.

Avoid: Packer WRs. (tough match up this weekend and Favre has a bum elbow)

TB @ Houston:

Galloway/Hilliard: QB Luke McCown showed everyone last week that he is capable of running the Buc’s offense and also finding WR Joey Galloway. Galloway caught seven passes for 159 yards in their road win over the Saints. McCown started off red hot as he connected on his first 15 passes. Galloway has been a STUD this year, and he should be able to have his way with the Texan secondary. Ike Hilliard only has one TD this year, but after a brief hot streak, is no longer recommended in a fantasy lineup.

As usual, great info to base your decisions off of every week. I have Favre and Garcia and both of them are banged up. Based on your analysis which is hard to disagree with, Garcia, if he starts, has the better match-up this week.

I want to play Favre but I need someone to talk me into it as the circumstances doesn't bode well for him this week.

Can anyone, ANYONE, tell me why I should start Favre this week?
 
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Did you really have to quote the whole post? Meh.

If it helps I'm benching Favre in favor of Garrard this week. I don't trust an injured Favre vs OAK DEF.

 
Did you really have to quote the whole post? Meh.If it helps I'm benching Favre in favor of Garrard this week. I don't trust an injured Favre vs OAK DEF.
Brotha if you noticed I deleted half of the post. But I'm with you on this one. I may have to sit him this week if Garcia is healthy.
 
Good stuff - thanks

Tough, tough decisions this week. Have to start Chad Johnson. I'm beginning to think Steve Smith will have a good game. They will be playing from behind, and tough to run on Jax. Vinny will chuck it 40 times. That leaves Welker and Galloway. Leaning towards Galloway, but my only fear is that the Tampa Bay D scores 2 TD's themselves with Schaub and the OLine gone, and if the Bucs are up several TD's Gruden shuts it down and just goes with the running game. Joey better get his in the first half.

 
Great work as usual, now gotta decide between Welker n Henry. I would agree Welker has a great shot at getting under the D with the focus on Randy. Tho on the other hand, STL D is putrid and Palmer should have a great game!

 
Good job, interesting stuff. I actually like Berrian tonight, as TO tore them up, and Berrian should be able to get behind D tonight that is for sure. I also feel AJ will get targets and get his underneath, and possibly up top again like last week. Should be interesting
I agree. Berrian is always a threat to get a deep one. My other choice is Driver and there's just too much going against him.Go Bernard.
Glad I trusted my gut and went with Berrian. He had a nice game.
 
BusterTBronco said:
Great call on Santana Moss.Not!
Takes alot of guts to put this kind of work into a free thread for everyone to read every week. And unless you know the future, you can't get it right every time. If you can do it better, go for it. Kudos to laughinboy_2000 and MoP as always.
 
Deuce said:
Good job, interesting stuff. I actually like Berrian tonight, as TO tore them up, and Berrian should be able to get behind D tonight that is for sure. I also feel AJ will get targets and get his underneath, and possibly up top again like last week. Should be interesting
I agree. Berrian is always a threat to get a deep one. My other choice is Driver and there's just too much going against him.Go Bernard.
Glad I trusted my gut and went with Berrian. He had a nice game.
Not a good trend so far guys. Benching the Bear WRs and starting Santana Moss have been awful decisions. But it's not too late. Since it looks like all of my Exploit/Avoids are backwards, go opposite of all my Exploits and opposites of all the Avoids! :lmao:
 
BusterTBronco said:
Great call on Santana Moss.Not!
Takes alot of guts to put this kind of work into a free thread for everyone to read every week. And unless you know the future, you can't get it right every time. If you can do it better, go for it. Kudos to laughinboy_2000 and MoP as always.
:deadhorse: I'm not going to get EVERY SINGLE Exploit/Avoid right. Nobody can. Picking the RB or WR Match Ups to Exploit/Avoid is a guessing game with some deep analysis on why it may be a good RB or WR Match Up to Avoid/Exploit. Sometimes it may be right, and sometimes it may be wrong. If you've followed the WR thread, I've done what I think is a fairly decent job picking the match ups to exploit and the match ups to avoid. It's too early to see how well I did this week in picking the Exploit/Avoid match ups, so don't base it off one game. :X As always, good luck to everyone.
 
Bowe/Gonzo: Bad spot here for the Chief receivers. Watch the injury to Huard as he took a beating last week and was knocked out. Some dude named Tyler Thigpen replaced Huard and looked awful. Then you have Bly and Bailey on the other side which is never fun.

Avoid: Bowe/Gonzo (Tyler Thigpen? Need I say more?)
Just read where Thigpen got hurt Wednesday and is now on IR? Gotta be honest with ya folks. I don't know who's going to be the QB for the Chiefs on Sunday? Ya think Joe Montana is interested in being the starter for the Chiefs for a month or so? :bag:
 
thanks for the great info, but you make it hard to decide between picking up Rice, Battle, or Burleson off of the waiver wire..

I agree about each, Battle seems to be primed for a huge game against a tough run def, so that will mean the Niners will throw

all day long...and Rice is going to be a good play as well, he's really come on as of late.

 
I'm putting allot of eggs this week in the S.Rice basket. I'm playing him over Bowe, Burress, & S.Holmes in a few different leagues (1st week of the playoffs). He has looked solid the last few weeks and the 49ers will attempt to stop Peterson before worrying about stopping the pass. Rice should have opportunity this week. My predictions are: 5/85/1 TD

 
I'm putting allot of eggs this week in the S.Rice basket. I'm playing him over Bowe, Burress, & S.Holmes in a few different leagues (1st week of the playoffs). He has looked solid the last few weeks and the 49ers will attempt to stop Peterson before worrying about stopping the pass. Rice should have opportunity this week. My predictions are: 5/85/1 TD
I'll drink to that! :nerd:
 
BusterTBronco said:
Great call on Santana Moss.Not!
Here we are nearing the end of the season and we still have idiots like this replying in this thread. Why even reply if your going to say something completely ignorant? The original poster offers up his/her fantasy analysis, take it with a grain of salt if u want, but some of us appreciate it. But if you're going to say something completely lethargic like this just do everyone a favor and avoid this topic.
 
As always, good analysis. May not be what I want to hear, but still a good analysis.I understand the advice with regards to Andre Johnson, but I just can't afford to bench this guy. He has been productive in every game, outside of 1, that he has been healthy. I am hoping Sage locks onto him again. If he gets doube digit targets, I have to think he will turn those into fantasy points.
:moneybag: Don't sweat the analysis on Andre. Rule #1 especially in the playoffs = never sit your studs. Andre is a stud and will get his in this game! 75 and a TD...TB has played 6 WRs of Andre's size (6-3/222) and/or caliber this season:Colston 6'4"/231 = 70 and a TDHolt - 6'0/190 = 63Wayne - 6'0/198 = 62 and a TDRoy W. - 6-2/220 = 23Boldin - 6-1/217 = 40Fitzgerald - 6-3/226 = 95Again, I think Houston throws 30+ passes in this game for 200+ yards a TD and 2INTs. Andre gets 75 and a TD
Here's the problem I have with this. Colston, Wayne, RoyW, Boldin/Fitz all had at least one other option on offense. Andre does not have that luxery, and I see the Bucs putting double and maybe triple coverages on him to keep him out of the offense. They will make Dayne, or someone else move the offense. You also have to look at the QB situation. Sage is less proven as a QB than any of the above mentioned WRs QBs. Just wanted to show you guys that I did throw in some thought here on the analysis.
It's good analysis and I can see your side, but there is a definite up side here. If you would have listed him as Neutral I would have agreed, but you had him as Avoid.Sage did throw for 4 TDs at home against Tenn without Andre. Let's not discount Davis, Walter, and Daniels here. Those guys proved they can hurt ya with andre out. So far last week was Sage's only game with Andre and he threw him a TD in a hostile Tenn house. At home on the turf....Sage will force feed Andre the ball. One missed assignment and Andre takes it to the house.
BAM!! NEVER SIT YOUR STUDS!!!! I hope the Andre owners out there listened to my opinion.
 
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As always, good analysis. May not be what I want to hear, but still a good analysis.I understand the advice with regards to Andre Johnson, but I just can't afford to bench this guy. He has been productive in every game, outside of 1, that he has been healthy. I am hoping Sage locks onto him again. If he gets doube digit targets, I have to think he will turn those into fantasy points.
:goodposting: Don't sweat the analysis on Andre. Rule #1 especially in the playoffs = never sit your studs. Andre is a stud and will get his in this game! 75 and a TD...TB has played 6 WRs of Andre's size (6-3/222) and/or caliber this season:Colston 6'4"/231 = 70 and a TDHolt - 6'0/190 = 63Wayne - 6'0/198 = 62 and a TDRoy W. - 6-2/220 = 23Boldin - 6-1/217 = 40Fitzgerald - 6-3/226 = 95Again, I think Houston throws 30+ passes in this game for 200+ yards a TD and 2INTs. Andre gets 75 and a TD
Here's the problem I have with this. Colston, Wayne, RoyW, Boldin/Fitz all had at least one other option on offense. Andre does not have that luxery, and I see the Bucs putting double and maybe triple coverages on him to keep him out of the offense. They will make Dayne, or someone else move the offense. You also have to look at the QB situation. Sage is less proven as a QB than any of the above mentioned WRs QBs. Just wanted to show you guys that I did throw in some thought here on the analysis.
It's good analysis and I can see your side, but there is a definite up side here. If you would have listed him as Neutral I would have agreed, but you had him as Avoid.Sage did throw for 4 TDs at home against Tenn without Andre. Let's not discount Davis, Walter, and Daniels here. Those guys proved they can hurt ya with andre out. So far last week was Sage's only game with Andre and he threw him a TD in a hostile Tenn house. At home on the turf....Sage will force feed Andre the ball. One missed assignment and Andre takes it to the house.
BAM!! NEVER SIT YOUR STUDS!!!! I hope the Andre owners out there listened to my opinion.
how are Owens and Chad owners feeling about that right now?
 

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