Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Maybe over the next 2-3 weeks.
Then the window closes. Winston loves him & Godwin will only open things up by adding a legitimate weapon opposite Evans.
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WR Mike Evans, TB (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Xue
- Start date
Then the window closes. Winston loves him & Godwin will only open things up by adding a legitimate weapon opposite Evans.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Yes, my thoughts exactly. He didn't do well with Fitz last year and probably won't to start the season this year either.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
IMO the downtrend is the result of Evans being wholly dependent on volume in order to mask egregious inefficiency and more young talent (Howard, Godwin) joining the fray and eating into his target share. The dude just isn't going to command a 30% target share anymore and since he struggles to catch half of his targets that's no bueno. I think the window for him to be an elite WR1 has already opened and closed.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Nah - Godwin is getting DJax targets, not Evans.
Evans was also just 1/9 on RZ targets last year. I don’t expect that to repeat either.
he only difference in Evans value the last 4 years is # of TDs.
There’s plenty of reason for optimism - that window is wide open.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
DJax's adot last year was in line with his career average (~16 yards). Godwin (13.2) and Evans (13.8) see more similar targets, I don't think Godwin and DJax do the same thing. To be fair all of their WRs are dissimilar to some extent, including Humphries but Godwin is more likely to eat into Evans than he is DJax. And Godwin does some things better than Evans, predominately catch more of his short to intermediate targets. I'm sure Evans will see positive TD regression but I just don't see how he can vault back into elite WR1 territory unless he sees a third of the targets like he did in 2015 and 16 - and I don't think he will because TB has added too many weapons since he saw that type of target share. When he saw 30% of the targets in 2015 Charles Sims saw the second most with 13% and a washed up VJax saw 11%. In 2016 when Evans commanded a 30% target share, Humphries and Brate were tied in 2nd with 15%. Last year we began to see what the effect of adding more potent weapons looks like (Evans 23%, DJax 15%, Humphries 14%, Brate 14%, Godwin 10%). The targets were less concentrated and I do not see that reversing.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I guess we’ll have to wait & see. I think Evans still has room to grow. He’s a 5th year player who’s seen turmoil at the QB position. He could still develop & become a better receiver, who can do more with fewer targets.
He’s a big, strong, quick receiver & I think he has potential for more
obviously you disagree. Time will tell.
electric Ape
Footballguy
I know Evans' efficiency stats aren't great and I've seen him be less than sure-handed at times but he is such a physically dominant player, routinely making plays that very few WRs could make. And he's been the only show in town in the TB passing game for much of his career. Getting repeatedly force fed the ball doesn't typically lead to the best efficiency numbers. I hate to fade a player with such obvious ability based on that kind of projection, I think we could see his targets go down but his efficiency go up
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Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Eh, the Giants have Shepard, Engram, and Barkley commanding targets but Beckham will still have a huge season. Winston missing 3 games sucks, but he looks much more focused this preseason. In dynasty, if you can buy Evans, you must.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Evans has always seen more than 121 targets (122, 147, 172 and 136 in 4 season) and he's never eclipsed a 56% catch percentage (55%, 50%, 56%, 52% in 4 seasons). Here is the list of players and the number of seasons in which they saw 121+ targets and were unable to eclipse a 56% catch percentage since Evans joined the league.
So although you can expect players to see a dip in efficiency when they see more volume Evans looks to be the most extreme case.
electric Ape
Footballguy
For sure. I respect the statistical argument you're making. And I don't disagree that Evans' value needs to be adjusted down a bit, but seeing him on the board as the 4th round approaches feels like a complete fire sale. Maybe I'm being stubborn but I'm not prepared to mark him down nearly that much, I still think he has special traits
Man In The Box
Footballguy
I got Evans in the second round of my keep-2 league, so he was a quasi-fourth round pick. Felt like highway robbery. I’m in 
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yeah and I understand the size + speed argument and I also don't know how much Winston is to blame for the inefficiency but I just don't see a ton of upside when he's being taken as the 11th or 12th WR off the board. I think he could finish as a WR2 again this year which isn't to say he'll be a complete bust but I always end up passing on him. If he finishes as a high-end WR1 this year I'm 100% prepared to eat crow.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I was all about Evans last year. Took him in the first round with expectations of a top 3 finish. I ended up trading him for Kamara around week 5 or 6, which obviously turned out even better than I could have anticipated. I don’t necessarily blame him for last year, I think TB underachieved largely as a team. I thought they were going to be a playoff team last year and for whatever reason it just never came together. Hard to say what happens this year - could be more of the same or maybe they learned from last year. I think he is valued appropriately in most drafts (mid 2nd) but to fall to the 3rd is crazy talk.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Does anyone here have a sense of whether his targets have been high/low quality? I admit I haven't watched him a lot.
As for Godwin, if he is the real deal and emerges, I think it can only help Evans in terms of quality of targets, but then the workload question comes up.
As for Godwin, if he is the real deal and emerges, I think it can only help Evans in terms of quality of targets, but then the workload question comes up.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I think it's short sighted to mark him, and Jameis, down in dynasty. Their talent hasn't really changed from the positive things we saw early on. We too often forget that the most important position in football is coach. The coaching staff is terrible. Let's see how these guys do when and if they get competent coaching. I'm planning to wait and try to buy low when they struggle this year due to bad scheme.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
This is what I wonder too, all we have to work with are the catch rates of Evans' fellow receivers. Like in CAR, we know Newton is inaccurate because all of his WRs always have piss poor catch rates and when they move teams they improve. Ginn's adot may have fallen a tad but he went from catching 57% of his targets with Newton to 76% (and no drops) with Brees. Benjamin posted his first 60%+ catch rate after moving to BUF.
Last year, Evans caught 52% if his targets, DJax 56%, Godwin 62% and Humphries 73%. But like I said, Evans and Godwin had similar adots. DJax's adot was 2+ yards deeper and he posted a better catch rate. Some of it has to be on Evans.
Dismattle
Footballguy
Soulfly3
Footballguy
remind me again why people were avoiding him?
was it tying the above record that turned folks off, orrrr???
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I sold him early this year. Last year was not fun to own him. I think he’s a beneficiary of the magic right now which may or may not continue for a couple reasons. Sellers remorse currently. Just saying last year sucked.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I had him his rookie year, and last year. The yards have always been there, the TDs have been fickle.
But TDs are always fickle. Like chasing pitcher wins in fantasy baseball.
Evans is a beast. Can’t believe I got him at 2.01 - and people in my league who allllllllll passed on him in the 2nd talked smack about the pick.
Now I’m wishing I took him 2.02 in my IDP instead of Keenan Allen.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
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electric Ape
Footballguy
I don’t want to pick on SameSongNDance because I've generally found your analysis to be sharp but I think it’s worth revisiting this debate to make one point. Analytics are a powerful tool but to me at least they should always be secondary to good old-fashioned talent evaluation. Football isn’t like baseball, there are a myriad of interconnected factors that can be hard to parse and distill into statistics. And a lot of the stats we do have are not particularly sticky / predictive. I think it’s better not to rely on target and efficiency projections too much and to break ties in favor of raw football ability. If your statistical model predicts that Mike Evans is a WR2, scrap it and go with the eyeball method because he is really f*cking good.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Nah, it's cool I deserve to be picked on for my take. I was going to come in here and eat crow eventually but I wanted to wait until we at least reached the halfway mark. But Evans did break his 100+ yard drought as soon as week 1.
I did mention somewhere in here that it could be Winston that has bogged Evans down and there's obviously still a chance Winston plays this season although I don't know if or when that may happen. But also, Fitz has gotten off to a historical pace - this was something no model or method could even remotely predict. If you told someone that Fitz would be the owner of 1230/11/4 line after the first 3 weeks of the season they'd wonder what you were smoking. So unless we think Fitz is going to finish the year with a 6,600 yards and 59 TDs I think it's kind of safe to assume Evans pace will slow down, along with Godwin, DJax and Howard.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Looking closer at where I was wrong..
He has so far garnered 28% of the targets, I had him sitting somewhere between 22-24%.
His catch rate is also 76%. That's ####### insane when you compare it to his first four seasons, where he struggled to stay above 55%.
I want to say there's absolutely no avenue in which I would have projected him catch 76% of his targets given what I had seen up to this point.
Despite the 76% catch rate, his adot is 15.9, the highest of his career.
He has so far garnered 28% of the targets, I had him sitting somewhere between 22-24%.
His catch rate is also 76%. That's ####### insane when you compare it to his first four seasons, where he struggled to stay above 55%.
I want to say there's absolutely no avenue in which I would have projected him catch 76% of his targets given what I had seen up to this point.
Despite the 76% catch rate, his adot is 15.9, the highest of his career.
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electric Ape
Footballguy
I think there’s more than a chance Winston plays this season, I think it’s close to an inevitability. I also agree that Evans is unlikely to maintain his current pace. But there aren’t 12 fantasy WRs who are better than him or who I’d rather have on my team, I guess that’s my main point.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Do you think that will be the case when Winston is back under center? What if now is just a great time to sell high?
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Fitz seems to be a better fit for him, could explain the higher catch rate. Eyeball test always told me the guy has more than decent hands.
btemp
Footballguy
I actually think SSND's initial analysis was correct. I think a few things have changed:
1) The biggest one: The NFL is complete is a completely different beast this year offensively. With all the rules changes, you have multiple NFL records falling all over the place. It's dumb. Tate had the highest catch% last year at 76, and there were only a few WR with 70+% catch rate (Evans was ~52%). This year, multiple WRs are over 80%. Michael Thomas is at 95%!
2) On that note, Fitzpatrick is playing at a level no QB has played at (because of the rules changes).
3) In large part because of that, Evans is catching a completely ahistorical percentage of catches. He was ~53% catch rate for his career, which has now jumped over 20%. Much like Fitzpatrick throwing for 400 yards 3 games in a row, I don't know how you expect that level of efficiency.
The one thing that was predictable was that Fitzpatrick would throw a much more catchable ball rather than feeding Evans at every opportunity. So you'd expect some bump in catch%, just not this.
1) The biggest one: The NFL is complete is a completely different beast this year offensively. With all the rules changes, you have multiple NFL records falling all over the place. It's dumb. Tate had the highest catch% last year at 76, and there were only a few WR with 70+% catch rate (Evans was ~52%). This year, multiple WRs are over 80%. Michael Thomas is at 95%!
2) On that note, Fitzpatrick is playing at a level no QB has played at (because of the rules changes).
3) In large part because of that, Evans is catching a completely ahistorical percentage of catches. He was ~53% catch rate for his career, which has now jumped over 20%. Much like Fitzpatrick throwing for 400 yards 3 games in a row, I don't know how you expect that level of efficiency.
The one thing that was predictable was that Fitzpatrick would throw a much more catchable ball rather than feeding Evans at every opportunity. So you'd expect some bump in catch%, just not this.
electric Ape
Footballguy
To be clear, my greater point is that taking such a stats-based approach is a bit of a high wire act, one variable changes and your whole model can go to #####. I’d rather go with the playground approach of just taking the best players. I do make adjustments based on situation but that’s more like fine tuning and not at the core of my player rankings.
For fantasy purposes I think Jameis and Fitzpatrick aren’t all that different. Both are aggressive with the ball and careless. Fitzpatrick may be throwing Evans a more catchable ball but we’re dealing with a small sample, it’s probably too early to make that conclusion. If Winston takes over it doesn’t scare me off Evans.
btemp
Footballguy
That's a reasonable take. But Fitz has being throw more catchable balls his whole career vs Winston. Winston is not an accurate passer.
You actually have to wonder how much of Evans low catch% is just playing with Winston.
But the positive when/if Winston comes back is volume for Evans.
You actually have to wonder how much of Evans low catch% is just playing with Winston.
But the positive when/if Winston comes back is volume for Evans.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s what occurred to me as well.
“catch rate” is a useful stat, but only if both sides of the pass are evaluated.
If balls are sailed, under-thrown, thrown without touch, to the wrong shoulder, etc, a receiver like Evans will have a low rate.
that said, I was excited about Winston this year, as he looked really, really sharp in preseason - and I realize preseason is just preseason, but it was apparent he’d put work in. He had a good rapport with his receivers and the game seemed to slow down a bit for him.
he had a bad habit of tunnel vision on Evans, and he’d throw the 50-50 ball way too often.
But back to catch rate, it doesn’t really tell us much about Evans ability if we don’t know how many of those balls were actually catchable.
electric Ape
Footballguy
I agree with everything you're saying.
Earlier in this thread, in the preseason, I posted that I wouldn't be surprised to see Evans' efficiency improve. So far that's happening. This could just be a blip and it could very well be attributable to Fitzpatrick. But like Hot Sauce Guy I've been seeing some signs in Winston's play (even dating back to last season) that make me think he could take a step forward. We'll see. Even if he remains the carelessly aggressive gunslinger of his first few seasons that's not the end of the world for Evans. That profile isn't great for winning football games but it can be just fine for fantasy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
As I said here & elsewhere, he passed the eye test. He’s a big, physical WR who can win battles against most DBs.
He runs good routes, he’s fast, and he’s faster with the ball in his hands.
I've been a fan since year 1, and was delighted to get him at a redraft discount this year.
Dismattle
Footballguy
This is why we have to listen to all the negativity...
"Bucs receiver Mike Evans gained 115 yards after the catching the ball. It just took him 15 games to do it." http://www.tampabay.com/data/2018/06/06/mike-evans-nfl-receiving-stats-yards-after-catch-tampa-bay-buccaneers/
Most probably view him like I personally view Kyle Rudolph Slow lanky w/ no game post catch Only Evans is a baller! Run the route get open and make the catch (122 Yd avg)
Steel Curtainrod
Footballguy
My only concern with him is Winston.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Did you watch Winston in the preseason at all?
He looked significantly better than Fitzmagic did on SNF.
Fitz threw just head scratching Ints - that was a horrific game. Sure, he ended up with 400+ and 3, but the picks, and especially the pick-6, were brutal.
And at the end, with the game on the line, a legit chance to win, or at least tie, he melted down completely - stared down his receivers & threw into double coverage, twice in a row. He should have had another pick.
i could see Winston’s return helping Peyton Barber, and I’m not so sure the WRs would take a huge hit. Maybe DeSean Jackson, but the chances he stays healthy all year are slim anyway.
btemp
Footballguy
I'm not saying you're wrong, but Winston played against a lot of 2nd teamers where he should shine. That's an unfair comparison to a MNF game. And Fitz looked better than Winston in the preseason. For example, Winston had another of those boneheaded throws into triple coverage one preseason game he was lucky was caught.Hot Sauce Guy said:
For all Fitz's failures he's played better in 2018 than Winston has ever played. How much of that is rules changes? Has Winston actually grown as a QB? Has Winston learned to read defenses pre-snap? Can he throw a deep ball now? Can he generate YAC with short passes?
These are all real questions we don't know whether Winston can answer till we see him play. I'm holding onto Winston for the upside but I'm skeptical he plays better than Fitz has through the first 3 games.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I don't want to be a jerk, but it's not helpful to understand the player value when you post a ridiculously lopsided deal with a dummy owner.
Ironically I came in here for a legit dynasty price check contribution. In .5ppr I'm offering Dion, early 1st and late 1st to WR rich RB poor (has Henry) owner.
For sake of thread and value discussion, in a vacuum this deal gets done, but owner is worried it will make my team too good.
So ME going rate of two firsts + part feels about right to me
tombonneau
Footballguy
fredsavage
Footballguy
As an Evans owner that offer seems pretty lowball, Dion Lewis is on the worst offense in football in a timeshare situation. Evans is in the god tier for dyno alongside basically 3 other guys in Hopkins, Odell, and Thomas. I would need the conversation to start at around four firsts in total value. If one of your picks ended up being the 1.1 we could reevaluate come draft time.
tombonneau
Footballguy
I think the taste of a disappointing 2017 lingers with this owner as well as the specter of Winston returning bringing back those dud days of last year. Might not be an uncommon line of thinking.
Re: Dion I don't disagree but he has Henry and has been after him since he signed. ?
