Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Wow!! So this guy is assuming he will struggle with bigger man-to-man corners in the NFL???Without even looking I'm sure I can find other writers who say the total opposite. Still looking for proof that he lacks straight line speed or struggles against the jam.
This is regurgitated crap people write every time about WR's his size without blazing speed. The tape tells the truth and here he is
Around 45sec into that clip the announcer says "he breaks and the defender can't keep up...is he talking about Blackmon? I wonder...
he "beat" amukamara on one play which was the flea flicker... amazing! other than that he looks slow and not all that impressive imo. i think these highlights could be used on both sides of the discussion here, thanks for that.
height isn't the issue. it's size - he's not big bodied and too slow to compensate for it.
One play? Did you miss the PI on Prince when Blackmon had him beat for another TD catch? People really do see what they want to see.
penalties count? duly noted... ok 2 plays.
He's 6'1" 207 pounds. That's certainly bigger than most of the cornerbacks who will line up across from him.
true, i forgot to add strength. i just don't see alot of it on the field.
You might be off on what you think people are expecting. I see a lot of Hakeem Nicks in him and on paper neither one are elite. If Blackmon stays healthy I can see consistent 80/1200/8 seasons.
I think the main issue is we need to define what's "elite" for a WR in the NFL? Top 5, top 10, top 15?
Mook got owned all I keep hearing the announcers talk about is how dominate Blackmon was.
i see alot of weak competition... but thats just how i interpreted your still photographs.
thats an interesting question... alot of factors come into being top at any position. to me top 5 is elite but not all the elite guys can get there in their situations so for me it has alot to do with potential as well. i just don't think blackmon has the potential to be a top 5 ever.
If the limit is top 5, I don't think Blackmon belongs. If it's top 15 I could see him being in that group regularly.
i can agree with that.
i can agree with that as well... i'd probably compare him more to a middle class bolden. not a poor man's but not quite the same level. i think he has some work to do, but if he does it those stats seem reachable.
Have you seen the height and weight of some of the top NFL WRs?Welker 5'8, 185
This is ridiculous. That list is full of #1 WRs who are as big or smaller than Blackmon. You don't have to be AJ or Calvin's size to be a #1 WR in the NFL. And to say he's too slow to compensate ignores everything he's ever shown on the field or his runs at his pro day.
to me he looks a bit soft and doesn't do well when guys are in his face. he's great in a spread offense and in the open field, i've admitted that. you seem to ignore the mention of speed and strength in my previous posts and that he doesn't just run around people like alot of those smaller guys you listed can. wayne and jennings are decent comparisons but he doesn't have a future hall of famer throwing him the ball and i can't see him playing to their level against nfl defensive talent. maclin seems about right... not great at anything but good at everything, he can't punish cb's with size/strength or speed either.look, size isn't everything, i'm absolutely not calling him a bust. i'm just saying he lacks what i feel can make him elite - he's not a speedster like wright, he's not the physical specimen with size/speed/strength that floyd is, and he doesn't have the hands or body control that jeffery does. i see him as a close to top 20 guy in the league, nothing more. his days of dominating the lackluster talent of big 12 defenses are over... welcome to the NFL mr. blackmon!
Wright at 1.5.....oof
What's wrong with that?
Perhaps, like Obama on gay marriage, EBF has evolved in his postion on these WRs.
In 3 days?
Is he trying to sway votes too?
New information comes in. One rethinks one's position. Anyway, in the league I am in with EBF, he took Floyd at 1.07 and Wright was on the board and went at 1.08. Although, I suspect the acquistion of Floyd may have been for trading purposes, as he then traded Floyd, along with Bradford and the 3.04 to get Stewart in a package deal - but he did take Floyd over Wright with the pick.
I know what you're saying, but this is what I'm curious about. What's the new information?
It is the new information of having the luxury of having a few days (ideally a week) to actually think over the draft picks and their implications. Sorry, but I guess I am not that much a shark and I would like to have a few extra days to think this all this through, rather than be rushed to make an immediate pick while I am on the clock.
Sorry that was a little harsh. I respect EBF for his postings and knowledge as I now he devotes a lot more time to the hobby than I do. I just simply disagree with Wright being the one the top 8 players in this draft. Knowing EBF's track record I will probably be proven wrong in the future though.
He's got a solid BMI.
Good question. It wasn't planned. Was hoping Luck or Blackmon would fall there. Didn't happen. Considered RG3, Floyd, Wilson, and Wright. IMO QBs are a dime a dozen in the HA leagues. You could get a guy like Ryan, Roethlisberger, Romo, or Cutler for peanuts. What are the odds that RG3 ends up being significantly better than them? I think he's being overvalued in rookie drafts because he has a flashy playing style and because QBs in general are overvalued after last season. I think he's a good prospect, but wouldn't take him until the 1.07-1.08 range in this format. Not a big fan of Wilson that high and didn't need another RB anyway because we only need to start one and I already had Richardson. Would rather gamble on the longevity potential and reduced injury risk of a top flight WR. So basically it came down to Floyd vs. Wright. I have those two pretty close. Today I flipped the coin and it came up Wright. Really like his playing speed and quickness. Also feel like he might have a shorter path to FF relevancy, which is important because my team in this particular league is bad. I would've worked harder to trade down, but only had about an hour until the clock was going to expire on me. No biggie really. It's not about the pick you use on a player, but rather the contributions that he'll make to your team. Wright was a fair gamble there. I'm at peace with it.
I think people sometimes get a little too locked into making the expected pick rather than getting the guy they really want. I mean, nobody would've batted an eyelash if I had taken Wilson there even though he was a later pick than Wright and plays a less valuable position in this format (IMO). I also think people exaggerate the value difference between players within tiers. For example, Kendall Wright often falls a lot lower than Michael Floyd. AJ Jenkins often falls a lot lower than Kendall Wright. These players were all drafted in the first round, within 20 picks of one another. The expected difference in their careers is probably razor thin based on past data, yet we treat the situation as if Floyd >> Wright >> Jenkins. Regarding Wright specifically, he was the 20th overall pick of the draft. That's higher than where Rashard Mendenhall, Dez Bryant, Mark Ingram, and a number of other slam-dunk top 3 rookie picks of recent years were selected. And it's not as if the Titans were the only team with that kind of grade on him. The Browns have admitted that he was their target at #22. Watching his clips, I really like his explosive speed and ability to run by people. He's just a smooth player who looks like a low-risk projection in the NFL, something like a cross between Percy Harvin and Santonio Holmes. The doughy body and poor workouts concern me, but every prospect has risk. You take the guys you like and hope for the best.
Value actually drops off really quickly in the first round of an NFL draft. Based on historical data predicting career VBD from draft pick (which I used for my generic rookie rankings), if we set Blackmon's value equal to 100 then the first 5 WRs chosen this year were worth:100 - pick 5 - Blackmon
11 years of 1st round picks at WR? How many players we talkin? Seems like a small sample size to me. Something else to consider is first half first round guys are likelier to see the field faster and get more chances if the struggle than any other draftees. That doesnt tell you much about their fantasy viability, could be a lot of noise in your signal.
i agree with what you're saying here. i may not agree with your take on certain players... but i also think, in that aspect, it's all a matter of opinion. there's just too many factors to consider and the safest route may be to stick somewhat close to draft position. the more i think about it the more i question my own take on guys, but i still love rolling the dice on certain players... that's just me.
He's small and weak, but at least he's slow.
I agree on RGIII overall...he's so inflated right now.Just curious on the pick and you make valid points.
Wright is going to be an interesting case study for the supremacy of the eyeball test because he ran slow at the combine, but routinely beats defenders deep on the field.4.6 speed
I wrote a long post on this the other day, but it got nuked before I published it.First, as a proportion of his total catches Wright obviously didn't get deep all that much. His Y/C and his TD% are both on the low side. He just had a ton of catches and a lot of highlights.Second, a combine-verified 4.6 is still fast compared to a lot of the players in college. Not blazing fast, but fast enough that if they bite on your bait you can get behind them. However, 4.6 is not very fast compared to anyone he'll be facing in the pros.Third, related to the one above -- if you've got a great sense of timing and vision and the ability to wrong-foot defenders you can get open deep in college. But that won't work in the pros. You need that PLUS. Wright has no plus.Fourth, RG3 (and the other WRs at Baylor) made his job much easier. Neither Hasselbeck or Locker are pro equivalents.Bottom line is that I think Wright was a very good college player and I think he'll be a solid #2 or a great #3 in the pros. But he's not a #1 guy. Being a great college receiver is necessary but not sufficient to being a great pro WR and Wright is missing some stuff.
A lot of that is based on Baylor's offense. The good thing about the spread is that he was matched up against some nickel corners, linebackers, and safeties. However, if you watch any of his game highlights you should notice the high percentage of bubble screens. Yards per catch reflects usage in addition to reflecting ability. If a lot of your targets come on screen passes, you aren't going to have a high yards per catch.
You might be right to an extent, but I've long believed that there's a difference between timed speed and playing speed. Chad Johnson is my favorite example because he ran a 4.6 coming out of Oregon State when everyone in the Pac-10 knew he was a demon on the field. Bernard Berrian is another guy cut from the same cloth. Believe he only ran about a 4.55 at the combine, but on the field nobody could cover him deep. If you are right about Wright I will give you credit, but I think your approach in general puts too much faith in the numbers. The numbers don't always tell the story. When pretty much every scouting report on Wright talks about his explosive deep speed and ability to get vertical, I have to believe that he plays faster than a 4.6 guy. It sure looks like that to me. I think the bigger issue is that he might have some discipline/work ethic issues as opposed to a natural lack of legitimate speed.
RG3 threw some really nice deep balls, but like any QB he also overthrew/underthrew/missed Wright plenty of times. I noticed this watching his clips again yesterday. If anything, I think it's the system that was friendly. Reese and Williams are good WRs. When you have 3-4 good receivers running at your defense on every play, at least one of them will be matched up against a nickel/dime corner, linebacker, or safety.
You don't think talent is as important as those other factors you mention? I'd put talent at the top. fwiw, I like Wright and think he'll be pretty good.
