Travdogg's pre-combine mock draft (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

1. Chicago=Caleb Williams QB USC, I think he's the clear #1 overall pick, just a matter if the Bears stay there, which they likely will without a Godfather offer. Williams has a huge arm and excels at making something out of nothing.

2. Washington=Drake Maye QB UNC, personally, I'd take Harrison here, but I think a new regime and new-ish owner are gonna want to get a QB here. Accuracy needs some work, but his pocket presence and arm strength are top notch.

3. New England=Marvin Harrison WR Ohio St, I think the Patriots acquire a QB in another way (trade for Fields?) and get their best perimeter WR since Randy Moss. Where Harrison impresses most is his ability to get instant separation, and make difficult catches, He's the best WR prospect in 17 years in my opinion.

4. Arizona=Malik Nabers WR LSU, my super-hot take, despite what I just said about Harrison, I don't think Nabers is much of a drop off. Both guys have top-5 NFL WR written all over them. Nabers has incredible acceleration, if a defender misses a jam, he's gone. I think he's done a lot to have Jayden Daniels thought of as high as he is, not the other way around.

5. LA Chargers=Brock Bowers TE Georgia, Harbaugh/Roman have tended to greatly value the TE position from Vernon Davis to Mark Andrews. With the Chargers likely to part ways with AT LEAST Mike Williams, a need for another weapon is paramount. Bowers is an explosive weapon who can play in-line and slot, who despite his size, is much more physical than guys 20+ pounds heavier.

6. NY Giants=Jayden Daniels QB LSU, I think less of Daniels than most, but I think landing with Daboll would be a good fit. In some ways Daniels is a lot like Daniel Jones, as an RPO guy who can take off any time, but Daniels obviously offers a higher ceiling. I am a little concerned about him being a bit of a 1-year wonder.

7. Tennessee=Joe Alt OT Notre Dame, Titans finally get around to replacing Taylor Lewan. Alt is a great athlete at his size and should hit the ground running as a day 1 LT starter.

8. Atlanta=Dallas Turner DE Alabama, I think getting Raheem Morris a defensive cornerstone will be the priority as I can't see the Falcons waiting for the draft to address QB. I think Russ could end up here, with maybe a day 2 rookie added. This is higher than I'd take Turner based on his size, but he has a frame he could add 10+ pounds to. His acceleration is special, my concern is that he may be a little one dimensional.

9. Chicago=Rome Odunze WR Washington, great size/speed combo. I think he's the clear #3 WR, but he'd be the top WR in many classes. His route running is inconsistent, he rounds off a lot on tape, and that leads to some balls that are maybe more contested than they should be, but he also catches well in traffic so its more a nitpick than a weakness.

10. NY Jets=Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon St, I think he's the #2 OL prospect in the class, and I'm confident that will be consensus come draft day. He's a brick wall, you can't bull rush him. He's also got the nasty streak that coaches love from OL, he's trying to bury opponents. Elite speed rushers could give him trouble, which is the only reason Alt is ahead of him.

11. Minnesota=Cooper DeJean CB Iowa, this is a flag plant guy for me. I think DeJean is the best defensive player in this class. An outstanding athlete who was the Iowa State Champ in the 100-meter, he's got great size and physicality to go along with that speed, also was a dangerous punt returner. Iowa played a lot of zone so he's somewhat untested in man, leading some to think he'd be better as a Safety, which is fine. Brian Flores could see his new Devin McCourty perhaps. I can see a McCarthy argument, but I think they are more likely to stick with Cousins.

12. Denver=JJ McCarthy QB Michigan, feels like a Sean Payton QB. I've gotten a lot higher on him, in December I argued against him as a 1st round pick. I do think he needs to add weight, and not a small amount but like 15-20 pounds. He's a jack of all trades master of none I think, which makes him very malleable to what a HC wants.

13. Las Vegas=Nate Wiggins CB Clemson, another favorite of mine. A feisty player, who was equally good in man and zone, he's got quickness for days. Only real hole is weight at 6-2 185, you'd like to see him around 200, and that shows up in his run support. Not really sure what they do at QB, could be in on the Fields/Wilson sweepstakes, could also see a day 2 pick if they strike out there, even sticking with O'Connell wouldn't blow my mind.

14. New Orleans=Olu Fashanu OT Penn St, sort of the opposite of Fuaga, in that he's very athletic, but can get pushed back. The Saints have some major OT issues, as Trevor Penning has been a predictable bust, and Ryan Ramcyzk has some major health issues, where he potentially could be going down a David Bahktiari route.

15. Indianapolis=Jared Verse DE Florida St, super strong, with great hand usage. His highlights show textbook swim moves. Doesn't have Turner's explosiveness but is arguably a better player. Would fit in nicely opposite Kwity Paye.

16. Seattle=Laiatu Latu DE UCLA, great size and move toolbox. If not for 2021 neck injury, might be graded even higher. A nightmare on stunts, has 27 sacks over the last 2 seasons. Only real knock is he's an average athlete for the position. Feels like the type that Mike McDonald would like though.

 

[travdogg]

17. Jacksonville=Quinyon Mitchell CB Toledo, maybe the best athlete in the draft. Played almost exclusively off-man coverage, so he could be a tad raw. Will not be beat deep.

18. Cincinnati=JC Latham OT Alabama, natural RT who when paired with Orlando Brown might form the biggest OT combo in the NFL. He's a bit raw but ticks all the size/athleticism boxes. Despite his size (335 pounds) he's been better against speed rushers than bull rushers. Has been a bit grabby at times as well, but I attribute that to the rawness.

19. LAR=Amarius Mims OT Georgia, like Latham he's a bit raw (tough to get on the field right away at Georgia) but his size is ideal. Unlike Latham, he's more of an anchor against bull rushers, and weaker against speed guys. McVay tends to be able to get the most out of OL, so I like the fit.

20. Pittsburgh=Terrion Arnold CB Alabama, I'm surprised that he seems to be the consensus #1 CB right now. He's a great athlete, but I feel like he's very reliant on that. He was only a 1-year starter (also tough to get on the field at Alabama right away) so that could mean nothing long-term, but he's a guy I could see having a rough rookie season as he irons out the technique part of the position. Still, the ceiling is the roof, so he can only fall so far. Mike Tomlin is the type of HC you'd want him to land with. I could see Bo Nix here maybe, but I think Kenny Pickett gets one more chance.

21. Miami=Jackson Powers-Johnson C Oregon, the newest law firm to hit the NFL, JPJ is a former wrestler (like Wirfs and Linderbaum before him) who is frequently pushing guys 10+ yards downfield in the run game. I think he's one of the safest picks in the draft.

22. Philadelphia=Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama, after the way the season ended, the secondary is BY FAR the biggest need. A very raw freshman starter for Nick Saban, McKinstry excels at man coverage, which Philly will likely run a lot of with Fangio on board. McKinstry is not the most athletic guy by CB standards, he might be a 4.5 guy, but he's physical and doesn't take too many chances.

23. Houston=Byron Murphy DT Texas, huge fan of his, and could argue him as high as the Vikings at #11, but I don't see DT as a priority for many teams. A monster in run defense, he's 308 pounds, but you'd think he was 360 with how immovable he is. He's not just a run defender either as he can shoot the gaps effectively as well. Add in being a local guy, and this would be an ideal pick for the Texans.

24. Dallas=Troy Fautanu OT Washington, was a LT in college, but could end up playing inside. Daniel Jeremiah thinks he could play any OL spot, so that versatility could push him up boards a bit, especially as Dallas ponders whether to keep Tyler Smith inside. Fautanu is a bit of a finesse player, who consistently gets to the 2nd level in the run game.

25. Green Bay=Ennis Rakestraw CB Missouri, perhaps an odd fit for GB as they have really prioritized athletes first, and Rakestraw wins with savvy and reliability. He's not big or fast for the position, and isn't really a playmaker, but he's consistent and doesn't make mistakes. Its possible that's what the new DC prefers.

26. Tampa Bay=Graham Barton OT Duke, started at LT for 3 years, but he's moving inside in the NFL. TB has as history of moving OL around, so its not out of character for them to do it again, and Barton is a much better prospect than Mauch/Goedecke were. Wins more with explosiveness and technique than strength, but would likely fit in fine at LG or C.

27. Arizona=Jer'Zhan Newton DT Illinois, more of pass rusher than Murphy, but not as good an overall prospect, a little undersized under 300 pounds, but makes up for it with block shedding ability.

28. Buffalo=Troy Franklin WR Oregon, I think he's the best for for the Bills among remaining WRs, though I think he, Thomas, and McConkey are all about the same level players. Probably isn't a 100-catch guy, but is a playmaker, especially deep downfield which Josh Allen needs.

29. Detroit=Chris Braswell DE Alabama, had 13 sacks in his 1st year as a starter replacing Will Anderson. He's not the player Anderson was, but he's probably pretty close athletically. Has a high ceiling with some development, and getting to work opposite a top-5 DE like Hutchinson can only help.

30. Baltimore=Brian Thomas WR LSU, outstanding size/speed combo, but also never faced top guys, and never faced press. Probably a bit of a project, but upside is sky high if he puts it together. I feel like he's a bit like Christian Watson. Ravens would be a good landing spot where he can come along slowly behind Andrews/Flowers.

31. San Francsico=Tyler Guyton OT Oklahoma, former DE who moved to OT, he's quite raw, but he is the best athlete at the position, and his issues seem technique based more than talent based. Could learn a lot from Trent Williams. Even then, RT job in SF wouldn't be too tough to win.

32. Kansas City=Ladd McConkey WR Georgia, this would be one of those picks where you'd just go, "how did the NFL let him go here" like Kyle Hamilton to Baltimore. McConkey would be exactly what KC needs as another YAC monster, who excels in traffic. A former high school QB (stop me if you've heard that one before) he feels like an Andy Reid type.

 

[JohnnyU]

My hot take, Bowers falls to Indy at 15.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Great work! Always enjoy these reads.
Zero chance the Packers draft that Missouri dude, for the exact reasons you mentioned.

 

[joey]

My hot take, Bowers falls to Indy at 15.

Hot take or deepest desire?

 

[travdogg]

My hot take, Bowers falls to Indy at 15.

Hot take or deepest desire?

I was asking myself the same thing.

If Bowers falls past the Chargers, I think the Giants, Titans, Bears, Jets, and Saints are all candidates to take him.

 

[joey]

My hot take, Bowers falls to Indy at 15.

Hot take or deepest desire?

I was asking myself the same thing.

If Bowers falls past the Chargers, I think the Giants, Titans, Bears, Jets, and Saints are all candidates to take him.

This mock is for @JohnnyU

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Patriots trade back, take J.J. McCarthy as four QBs get selected inside top 10

New England deals its No. 3 pick to another team in need of a quarterback

www.cbssports.com

 

[Soulfly3]

Nice mock. I don't see the Ravens taking another WR though... They already have a stud in Flowers, and Lamar proved once again he isn't a throwing QB. esp a WR who is a deep ball specialist

A WR in the first is wasted 2 yrs in a row imo, but could be wrong.

 

[Chaos34]

23. Houston=Byron Murphy DT Texas, huge fan of his, and could argue him as high as the Vikings at #11, but I don't see DT as a priority for many teams. A monster in run defense, he's 308 pounds, but you'd think he was 360 with how immovable he is. He's not just a run defender either as he can shoot the gaps effectively as well. Add in being a local guy, and this would be an ideal pick for the Texans.

24. Dallas=Troy Fautanu OT Washington, was a LT in college, but could end up playing inside. Daniel Jeremiah thinks he could play any OL spot, so that versatility could push him up boards a bit, especially as Dallas ponders whether to keep Tyler Smith inside. Fautanu is a bit of a finesse player, who consistently gets to the 2nd level in the run game.

I was cheering this mock as Murphy was falling to Dallas, then you tore my heart out. They need him. Fautanu is a find consolation cuz they need help there too, but it's nothing like the need to fix that run D.

Since DT and ILB are "my" priorities for Dallas and not many other teams, I wouldn't mind them moving down if Murphy is gone. They could use an extra pick

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Bucs will take Michael Penix at 26
Great read Trav, thanks for doing this
Bucs don't have a QB and they got stacks of cash to spend, fix their IOL woes and rebuild parts of the defense.
They are a terrific team for Penix to land on and take directly into the Playoffs
Don't be surprised and especially if JJ is now going 12th

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sidenote: Salary Cap is officially $255M+, that's the biggest 1 year increase ever at almost $31M
Teams are going to have a lot of cash to splash around, it's a great year for free agents
With the draft picks for some of these teams, could be quick turnarounds.
Look at how fast Houston got moving.

 

[need2know]

Bucs will take Michael Penix at 26
Great read Trav, thanks for doing this
Bucs don't have a QB and they got stacks of cash to spend, fix their IOL woes and rebuild parts of the defense.
They are a terrific team for Penix to land on and take directly into the Playoffs
Don't be surprised and especially if JJ is now going 12th

really? i bet they resign baker

 

[Snotbubbles]

I can't really argue with the Eagles selection (but I will). I think the Eagles may prefer to get an NFL established CB via trade or free agency (there's smoke around Surtain and they had interest in the Bears Johnson at the TDL). Also, the last time the Eagles took a CB in the first was 2002 (Lito Sheppard).

Howie Roseman 1st round draft history as Eagles GM: DT Jalen Carter, DE Nolan Smith, DT Jordan Davis, WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jalen Reagor, OT Andre Dillard, WR Nelson Agholor, DE Derek Barnett, QB Carson Wentz, DE Marcus Smith. Howie was GM, but Reid made pick: OT Lane Johnson, DT Fletcher Cox, OG Danny Watkins.

That's 6 DL, 3 OL, 3 WR and 1 QB. I think it's safe to say the Eagles don't need a QB or WR so if I had to bet, I'd say they're going OL/DL.

 

[Max Power]

Pre Combine hot take:

QB Order goes...
Williams
Daniels
McCarthy
Maye

 

[need2know]

I can't really argue with the Eagles selection (but I will). I think the Eagles may prefer to get an NFL established CB via trade or free agency (there's smoke around Surtain and they had interest in the Bears Johnson at the TDL). Also, the last time the Eagles took a CB in the first was 2002 (Lito Sheppard).

Howie Roseman 1st round draft history as Eagles GM: DT Jalen Carter, DE Nolan Smith, DT Jordan Davis, WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jalen Reagor, OT Andre Dillard, WR Nelson Agholor, DE Derek Barnett, QB Carson Wentz, DE Marcus Smith. Howie was GM, but Reid made pick: OT Lane Johnson, DT Fletcher Cox, OG Danny Watkins.

That's 6 DL, 3 OL, 3 WR and 1 QB. I think it's safe to say the Eagles don't need a QB or WR so if I had to bet, I'd say they're going OL/DL.

i think they need one in FA and draft one. kool aid would fit great

 

[Snotbubbles]

I can't really argue with the Eagles selection (but I will). I think the Eagles may prefer to get an NFL established CB via trade or free agency (there's smoke around Surtain and they had interest in the Bears Johnson at the TDL). Also, the last time the Eagles took a CB in the first was 2002 (Lito Sheppard).

Howie Roseman 1st round draft history as Eagles GM: DT Jalen Carter, DE Nolan Smith, DT Jordan Davis, WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jalen Reagor, OT Andre Dillard, WR Nelson Agholor, DE Derek Barnett, QB Carson Wentz, DE Marcus Smith. Howie was GM, but Reid made pick: OT Lane Johnson, DT Fletcher Cox, OG Danny Watkins.

That's 6 DL, 3 OL, 3 WR and 1 QB. I think it's safe to say the Eagles don't need a QB or WR so if I had to bet, I'd say they're going OL/DL.

i think they need one in FA and draft one. kool aid would fit great

I think they should go get either Surtain or Johnson. Then there is no need to draft a CB. You got Rodgers coming off suspension. You got Ringo and Ricks as development guys. And they you got Slay and Bradberry to deal with. I'm guessing one of those guys will still be on the roster next year (probably Slay). It buys you a year of evaluation.

 

[travdogg]

Nice mock. I don't see the Ravens taking another WR though... They already have a stud in Flowers, and Lamar proved once again he isn't a throwing QB. esp a WR who is a deep ball specialist

A WR in the first is wasted 2 yrs in a row imo, but could be wrong.

The bolded is shtick right? I mean 2 MVPs in 5 years. Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson is the entire list of guys who have ever done that. 11 guys, all of whom are likely HOFers.

I think Lamar is a good passer. He's a better runner, but that's not a knock, as he's the best runner. He was 3rd in the NFL in passer rating, despite not having his best guy for most of the 2nd half of the season. I think adding another weapon (one who should be better than Beckham/Bateman/Agholor) could provide a huge upgrade to the Ravens offense, especially a deep ball guy even if most of his job is keeping a Safety deep and away from Andrews/Flowers.

Jer'Zhan Newton was a candidate if he fell further for the Ravens. I think WR/DL/RB are their top needs.

 

[travdogg]

23. Houston=Byron Murphy DT Texas, huge fan of his, and could argue him as high as the Vikings at #11, but I don't see DT as a priority for many teams. A monster in run defense, he's 308 pounds, but you'd think he was 360 with how immovable he is. He's not just a run defender either as he can shoot the gaps effectively as well. Add in being a local guy, and this would be an ideal pick for the Texans.

24. Dallas=Troy Fautanu OT Washington, was a LT in college, but could end up playing inside. Daniel Jeremiah thinks he could play any OL spot, so that versatility could push him up boards a bit, especially as Dallas ponders whether to keep Tyler Smith inside. Fautanu is a bit of a finesse player, who consistently gets to the 2nd level in the run game.

I was cheering this mock as Murphy was falling to Dallas, then you tore my heart out. They need him. Fautanu is a find consolation cuz they need help there too, but it's nothing like the need to fix that run D.

Since DT and ILB are "my" priorities for Dallas and not many other teams, I wouldn't mind them moving down if Murphy is gone. They could use an extra pick

I think LB could be a FA addition for Dallas.

I thought about Troy Franklin as a deep threat addition, with the idea that one of Cooks/Gallup could be cut, but since it hasn't happened yet, and OL is a bigger need I went that direction.

If Dallas does trade down I like Tyler Nubin (Minnesota Safety)

 

[travdogg]

Bucs will take Michael Penix at 26
Great read Trav, thanks for doing this
Bucs don't have a QB and they got stacks of cash to spend, fix their IOL woes and rebuild parts of the defense.
They are a terrific team for Penix to land on and take directly into the Playoffs
Don't be surprised and especially if JJ is now going 12th

I'm pretty confident Baker Mayfield will be back using some of those stacks of cash. Its not what I'd do, but its what I'm expecting. I'm actually expecting a lot of running it back, as I think Mayfield, Evans, and David all re-sign, and Winfield (the most important guy) was already tagged.

I figured OL/DL, and maybe an outside shot at a WR were the targets at the 26 pick.

I'm personally not a Penix fan, I think he's QB6 in this class. I really don't like his mechanics and his long release. He's got a super strong arm (probably the best of the top-6 QBs) and is a good decision maker when things are going right, but I also think he's really sloppy when the pocket breaks down, isn't particularly mobile, and was in a somewhat gimmicky offense, where nearly everything was shotgun throws outside the hashes. That's no even getting into his injury history.

 

[travdogg]

Pre Combine hot take:

QB Order goes...
Williams
Daniels
McCarthy
Maye

I've got QB as:

Caleb/Maye
Daniels/McCarthy
Trading for Fields/Nix
Penix/signing Wilson

If the NFL lets Drake Maye fall to Sean Payton, the AFC West will get mighty interesting.

 

[travdogg]

I can't really argue with the Eagles selection (but I will). I think the Eagles may prefer to get an NFL established CB via trade or free agency (there's smoke around Surtain and they had interest in the Bears Johnson at the TDL). Also, the last time the Eagles took a CB in the first was 2002 (Lito Sheppard).

Howie Roseman 1st round draft history as Eagles GM: DT Jalen Carter, DE Nolan Smith, DT Jordan Davis, WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jalen Reagor, OT Andre Dillard, WR Nelson Agholor, DE Derek Barnett, QB Carson Wentz, DE Marcus Smith. Howie was GM, but Reid made pick: OT Lane Johnson, DT Fletcher Cox, OG Danny Watkins.

That's 6 DL, 3 OL, 3 WR and 1 QB. I think it's safe to say the Eagles don't need a QB or WR so if I had to bet, I'd say they're going OL/DL.

I don't think Jaylon Johnson is going anywhere, and Surtain is gonna cost a 1st+.

Its possible I'm overreacting to the way last season ended with a 1st round CB, but I don't think its ever been this clear a need for them. Bradberry isn't a starting caliber player anymore, Ringo has a ways to go, Ricks showed nothing, Slay is on the decline, Maddox is a question mark, and Rodgers was solid in Indy but who knows where he is after a year off.

I did consider OL/DE, and honestly WR wouldn't blow my mind, as I doubt both AJ/Smith can be afforded long term, and they have nothing beyond them, but CB just seemed like the best fit. I will say if Jackson Powers-Johnson makes it Philly, he's a tough guy to pass on as a Kelce replacement.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I can't really argue with the Eagles selection (but I will). I think the Eagles may prefer to get an NFL established CB via trade or free agency (there's smoke around Surtain and they had interest in the Bears Johnson at the TDL). Also, the last time the Eagles took a CB in the first was 2002 (Lito Sheppard).

Howie Roseman 1st round draft history as Eagles GM: DT Jalen Carter, DE Nolan Smith, DT Jordan Davis, WR DeVonta Smith, WR Jalen Reagor, OT Andre Dillard, WR Nelson Agholor, DE Derek Barnett, QB Carson Wentz, DE Marcus Smith. Howie was GM, but Reid made pick: OT Lane Johnson, DT Fletcher Cox, OG Danny Watkins.

That's 6 DL, 3 OL, 3 WR and 1 QB. I think it's safe to say the Eagles don't need a QB or WR so if I had to bet, I'd say they're going OL/DL.

I don't think Jaylon Johnson is going anywhere, and Surtain is gonna cost a 1st+.

Its possible I'm overreacting to the way last season ended with a 1st round CB, but I don't think its ever been this clear a need for them. Bradberry isn't a starting caliber player anymore, Ringo has a ways to go, Ricks showed nothing, Slay is on the decline, Maddox is a question mark, and Rodgers was solid in Indy but who knows where he is after a year off.

I did consider OL/DE, and honestly WR wouldn't blow my mind, as I doubt both AJ/Smith can be afforded long term, and they have nothing beyond them, but CB just seemed like the best fit. I will say if Jackson Powers-Johnson makes it Philly, he's a tough guy to pass on as a Kelce replacement.

I'd pay the price, I want a guy I know is going to step in right away and contribute. I don't like Ricks either.

 

[Soulfly3]

Nice mock. I don't see the Ravens taking another WR though... They already have a stud in Flowers, and Lamar proved once again he isn't a throwing QB. esp a WR who is a deep ball specialist

A WR in the first is wasted 2 yrs in a row imo, but could be wrong.

The bolded is shtick right? I mean 2 MVPs in 5 years. Jim Brown

15th most passing yds.
12th most passing TDs.
17th in completions.

And he's the MVP.
What's that tell you about how amazing his other aspects must be?

 

[Gally]

11. Minnesota=Cooper DeJean CB Iowa, this is a flag plant guy for me. I think DeJean is the best defensive player in this class. An outstanding athlete who was the Iowa State Champ in the 100-meter, he's got great size and physicality to go along with that speed, also was a dangerous punt returner. Iowa played a lot of zone so he's somewhat untested in man, leading some to think he'd be better as a Safety, which is fine. Brian Flores could see his new Devin McCourty perhaps. I can see a McCarthy argument, but I think they are more likely to stick with Cousins.

Even if Vikes resign Cousins would it be a bad thing to draft McCarthy anyway? Let him sit a year or two and learn to take over. I think I would rather that as a Vikes fan then another DB in the first round. I thought their defense was much improved just by the coordinator/scheme change and think DB would not be a priority at pick 11.

 

[travdogg]

Nice mock. I don't see the Ravens taking another WR though... They already have a stud in Flowers, and Lamar proved once again he isn't a throwing QB. esp a WR who is a deep ball specialist

A WR in the first is wasted 2 yrs in a row imo, but could be wrong.

The bolded is shtick right? I mean 2 MVPs in 5 years. Jim Brown

15th most passing yds.
12th most passing TDs.
17th in completions.

And he's the MVP.
What's that tell you about how amazing his other aspects must be?

I'd argue none of those stats really matter. Rate stats>counting stats. Lamar was 3rd in passer rating and 4th in yards per attempt, the Ravens were 3rd in yards per play.

Gus Edwards was 3rd among RBs in TDs, and that had nothing to do with him, and everything to do with Lamar. If Edwards 1 yard TD runs were 1 yard TD passes instead, would you really view Lamar differently?

I personally thought Josh Allen should have been MVP, but Lamar was a worthy choice. Perhaps the Ravens throw more with better weapons?

 

[Soulfly3]

Lamar is not a good throwing QB. It's as simple as that for me. He's shown it year after year. QBR doesnt mean much to me when you're 17th in attempts, to go w those other numbers.

He's an elite athlete. Supreme runner. He's a good at the very best throwing QB.

 

[travdogg]

11. Minnesota=Cooper DeJean CB Iowa, this is a flag plant guy for me. I think DeJean is the best defensive player in this class. An outstanding athlete who was the Iowa State Champ in the 100-meter, he's got great size and physicality to go along with that speed, also was a dangerous punt returner. Iowa played a lot of zone so he's somewhat untested in man, leading some to think he'd be better as a Safety, which is fine. Brian Flores could see his new Devin McCourty perhaps. I can see a McCarthy argument, but I think they are more likely to stick with Cousins.

Even if Vikes resign Cousins would it be a bad thing to draft McCarthy anyway? Let him sit a year or two and learn to take over. I think I would rather that as a Vikes fan then another DB in the first round. I thought their defense was much improved just by the coordinator/scheme change and think DB would not be a priority at pick 11.

The defense improved from the DC change for sure (though I might argue that's as much about Flores as about Donatell) but adding an impact defender especially in the backend could really help, especially as Harrison Smith might not have much time left, Cine and Booth haven't panned out, and Murphy was a FA bust. I do wonder where the defense would be if they'd just taken Kyle Hamilton in 2022 instead of trading down.

I can see drafting McCarthy logically, but I wonder if Kwesi has time for him to develop. Maybe I'm giving to much credence to the Minneapolis writers, but it sounds like he's on the hot seat a bit. I don't think he should be, but that's what I've heard.

I'm expecting Cousins and Hunter to be back, and the rest of the additions to be draft picks and guys hopefully staying healthy. Not many teams lost more to injury than the Vikings last season.

 

[Gally]

The defense improved from the DC change for sure (though I might argue that's as much about Flores as about Donatell) but adding an impact defender especially in the backend could really help, especially as Harrison Smith might not have much time left, Cine and Booth haven't panned out, and Murphy was a FA bust. I do wonder where the defense would be if they'd just taken Kyle Hamilton in 2022 instead of trading down.

I agree that it was a lot to do with Flores and attacking. The year before the defense and the bend don't break just bent all the way to poor play. It was so frustrating to watch.

I think Mettalus and Bynum were good last year and should be solid moving forward. Corner is a concern but having been burned too many times with early corners it is tough for me to go that direction at pick 11.

I do think the Vikes should resign Cousins for sure which will make it harder to use pick 11 on a QB but I think it's the right long term decision. In the short term going with a DB or Edge or OL (depending on quality of options there) is the better choice but I am not really sure how much it really improves their overall shot at going far in the playoffs.

I would love to see Hunter back and with the salary cap increase it is now a possibility.

 

[travdogg]

The defense improved from the DC change for sure (though I might argue that's as much about Flores as about Donatell) but adding an impact defender especially in the backend could really help, especially as Harrison Smith might not have much time left, Cine and Booth haven't panned out, and Murphy was a FA bust. I do wonder where the defense would be if they'd just taken Kyle Hamilton in 2022 instead of trading down.

I agree that it was a lot to do with Flores and attacking. The year before the defense and the bend don't break just bent all the way to poor play. It was so frustrating to watch.

I think Mettalus and Bynum were good last year and should be solid moving forward. Corner is a concern but having been burned too many times with early corners it is tough for me to go that direction at pick 11.

I do think the Vikes should resign Cousins for sure which will make it harder to use pick 11 on a QB but I think it's the right long term decision. In the short term going with a DB or Edge or OL (depending on quality of options there) is the better choice but I am not really sure how much it really improves their overall shot at going far in the playoffs.

I would love to see Hunter back and with the salary cap increase it is now a possibility.

I do wonder if the Vikings would be interested in a guy like Mac Jones. He seems like someone who will end up on a Shanahan/McVay scheme offense somewhere. Kinda kick the tires on a potential long term guy, without a big investment, and still be able to upgrade the 2024 squad in the draft. Vikings and Rams feel like strong candidates to me, maybe even the Saints with Kubiak Jr. at OC now. I do agree that even in the likely scenario Cousins returns, I'd like to see something that isn't Mullens/Hall behind him.

 

[streamkeeper]

Nice work.
Thank you.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

11. Minnesota=Cooper DeJean CB Iowa, this is a flag plant guy for me. I think DeJean is the best defensive player in this class. An outstanding athlete who was the Iowa State Champ in the 100-meter, he's got great size and physicality to go along with that speed, also was a dangerous punt returner. Iowa played a lot of zone so he's somewhat untested in man, leading some to think he'd be better as a Safety, which is fine. Brian Flores could see his new Devin McCourty perhaps. I can see a McCarthy argument, but I think they are more likely to stick with Cousins.

Even if Vikes resign Cousins would it be a bad thing to draft McCarthy anyway? Let him sit a year or two and learn to take over. I think I would rather that as a Vikes fan then another DB in the first round. I thought their defense was much improved just by the coordinator/scheme change and think DB would not be a priority at pick 11.

The defense improved from the DC change for sure (though I might argue that's as much about Flores as about Donatell) but adding an impact defender especially in the backend could really help, especially as Harrison Smith might not have much time left, Cine and Booth haven't panned out, and Murphy was a FA bust. I do wonder where the defense would be if they'd just taken Kyle Hamilton in 2022 instead of trading down.

I can see drafting McCarthy logically, but I wonder if Kwesi has time for him to develop. Maybe I'm giving to much credence to the Minneapolis writers, but it sounds like he's on the hot seat a bit. I don't think he should be, but that's what I've heard.

I'm expecting Cousins and Hunter to be back, and the rest of the additions to be draft picks and guys hopefully staying healthy. Not many teams lost more to injury than the Vikings last season.

I would love to see DeJean in purple...I think they do go D-line/Edge though.

And I don't think Murphy was a FA bust - he was playing really well before he got hurt...

 

[Chaos34]

23. Houston=Byron Murphy DT Texas, huge fan of his, and could argue him as high as the Vikings at #11, but I don't see DT as a priority for many teams. A monster in run defense, he's 308 pounds, but you'd think he was 360 with how immovable he is. He's not just a run defender either as he can shoot the gaps effectively as well. Add in being a local guy, and this would be an ideal pick for the Texans.

24. Dallas=Troy Fautanu OT Washington, was a LT in college, but could end up playing inside. Daniel Jeremiah thinks he could play any OL spot, so that versatility could push him up boards a bit, especially as Dallas ponders whether to keep Tyler Smith inside. Fautanu is a bit of a finesse player, who consistently gets to the 2nd level in the run game.

I was cheering this mock as Murphy was falling to Dallas, then you tore my heart out. They need him. Fautanu is a find consolation cuz they need help there too, but it's nothing like the need to fix that run D.

Since DT and ILB are "my" priorities for Dallas and not many other teams, I wouldn't mind them moving down if Murphy is gone. They could use an extra pick

I think LB could be a FA addition for Dallas.

I thought about Troy Franklin as a deep threat addition, with the idea that one of Cooks/Gallup could be cut, but since it hasn't happened yet, and OL is a bigger need I went that direction.

If Dallas does trade down I like Tyler Nubin (Minnesota Safety)

Kearse, Wilson and Hooker are all good to excellent safeties. Bell is a solid SS who was forced to play ILB. They're stacked at safety. I like Edgerrin Cooper or Marist Liafu if they can't get Murphy. Both are probably late 1st to mid 2nd, thus I think a move down might make sense. Dallas's late 2nd rounder misses a tier of potential very good prospects. I think. They're more needy than the record implies and I never complain about drafting OL.

 

[Despyzer]

Lamar is not a good throwing QB. It's as simple as that for me. He's shown it year after year. QBR doesnt mean much to me when you're 17th in attempts, to go w those other numbers.

He's an elite athlete. Supreme runner. He's a good at the very best throwing QB.

Sam Howell led the league in attempts. Is that really the argument that you want to make?

 

[JohnnyU]

One of the best efforts at one of these I've ever seen. Good job @travdogg

 

[Soulfly3]

Lamar is not a good throwing QB. It's as simple as that for me. He's shown it year after year. QBR doesnt mean much to me when you're 17th in attempts, to go w those other numbers.

He's an elite athlete. Supreme runner. He's a good at the very best throwing QB.

Sam Howell led the league in attempts. Is that really the argument that you want to make?

No, it's just easier to have a high completion % and nice QBR when you only throw here and there and when a guy is clearly open (othersise you run?

Anyways, I've derailed a good thread and good work to say I dont see BAL taking a WR in rnd 1 again, but I could be wrong

 

[travdogg]

23. Houston=Byron Murphy DT Texas, huge fan of his, and could argue him as high as the Vikings at #11, but I don't see DT as a priority for many teams. A monster in run defense, he's 308 pounds, but you'd think he was 360 with how immovable he is. He's not just a run defender either as he can shoot the gaps effectively as well. Add in being a local guy, and this would be an ideal pick for the Texans.

24. Dallas=Troy Fautanu OT Washington, was a LT in college, but could end up playing inside. Daniel Jeremiah thinks he could play any OL spot, so that versatility could push him up boards a bit, especially as Dallas ponders whether to keep Tyler Smith inside. Fautanu is a bit of a finesse player, who consistently gets to the 2nd level in the run game.

I was cheering this mock as Murphy was falling to Dallas, then you tore my heart out. They need him. Fautanu is a find consolation cuz they need help there too, but it's nothing like the need to fix that run D.

Since DT and ILB are "my" priorities for Dallas and not many other teams, I wouldn't mind them moving down if Murphy is gone. They could use an extra pick

I think LB could be a FA addition for Dallas.

I thought about Troy Franklin as a deep threat addition, with the idea that one of Cooks/Gallup could be cut, but since it hasn't happened yet, and OL is a bigger need I went that direction.

If Dallas does trade down I like Tyler Nubin (Minnesota Safety)

Kearse, Wilson and Hooker are all good to excellent safeties. Bell is a solid SS who was forced to play ILB. They're stacked at safety. I like Edgerrin Cooper or Marist Liafu if they can't get Murphy. Both are probably late 1st to mid 2nd, thus I think a move down might make sense. Dallas's late 2nd rounder misses a tier of potential very good prospects. I think. They're more needy than the record implies and I never complain about drafting OL.

Wilson is more of a 3rd Safety and he's 29. Kearse is 30, a FA, and absolutely sucked last year. I'll agree Hooker is really good though, but even he is 28. Youth is needed in my opinion. The way Bell played at LB, I almost think they'll ask him to add weight and stay there.

ETA: 100% agree about never really complaining about drafting OL. OL and DB are the 2 things I think teams can never have enough of.

 

[BigJim®]

Nice effort, but I'm triggered every time I see a mock of the Vikes selecting CB.

 

[Chaos34]

23. Houston=Byron Murphy DT Texas, huge fan of his, and could argue him as high as the Vikings at #11, but I don't see DT as a priority for many teams. A monster in run defense, he's 308 pounds, but you'd think he was 360 with how immovable he is. He's not just a run defender either as he can shoot the gaps effectively as well. Add in being a local guy, and this would be an ideal pick for the Texans.

24. Dallas=Troy Fautanu OT Washington, was a LT in college, but could end up playing inside. Daniel Jeremiah thinks he could play any OL spot, so that versatility could push him up boards a bit, especially as Dallas ponders whether to keep Tyler Smith inside. Fautanu is a bit of a finesse player, who consistently gets to the 2nd level in the run game.

I was cheering this mock as Murphy was falling to Dallas, then you tore my heart out. They need him. Fautanu is a find consolation cuz they need help there too, but it's nothing like the need to fix that run D.

Since DT and ILB are "my" priorities for Dallas and not many other teams, I wouldn't mind them moving down if Murphy is gone. They could use an extra pick

I think LB could be a FA addition for Dallas.

I thought about Troy Franklin as a deep threat addition, with the idea that one of Cooks/Gallup could be cut, but since it hasn't happened yet, and OL is a bigger need I went that direction.

If Dallas does trade down I like Tyler Nubin (Minnesota Safety)

Kearse, Wilson and Hooker are all good to excellent safeties. Bell is a solid SS who was forced to play ILB. They're stacked at safety. I like Edgerrin Cooper or Marist Liafu if they can't get Murphy. Both are probably late 1st to mid 2nd, thus I think a move down might make sense. Dallas's late 2nd rounder misses a tier of potential very good prospects. I think. They're more needy than the record implies and I never complain about drafting OL.

Wilson is more of a 3rd Safety and he's 29. Kearse is 30, a FA, and absolutely sucked last year. I'll agree Hooker is really good though, but even he is 28. Youth is needed in my opinion. The way Bell played at LB, I almost think they'll ask him to add weight and stay there.

ETA: 100% agree about never really complaining about drafting OL. OL and DB are the 2 things I think teams can never have enough of.

Well, we can go round and round here I guess, which would be dumb. It's just DT and ILB are so so so wanting. Safety not so much, imo. Next time you should make an old guy happy and just let Murphy fall to Dallas.

Really good mock, btw. I usually don't read them cuz they're fool's errands, but you pulled me in with excellent takes.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

this is a solid mock at this stage. well done.

 

[DocHolliday]

Great thread.

 

[travdogg]

Nice effort, but I'm triggered every time I see a mock of the Vikes selecting CB.

I get that, but that shouldn't stop them from taking them. I mean, I'm a Bears fan, so by that logic, I should REALLY not want a QB at #1. Besides, Jeff Gladney, Trae Waynes, and Mike Hughes can't hurt you anymore (frankly, Hughes was the only one of them I thought wasn't a horrible pick at the time) but Blackmon (who showed some upside at least), Murphy, Evans, Booth is as rough as any CB room in the NFL.

 

[BigJim®]

I get that, but that shouldn't stop them from taking them.

It actually should. To use a premium pick 2 seasons after the Cine/Booth fiasco… no. The Vikes are desperate at QB, DE and interior line on both sides. That’s largely due to this new regime using 5 of its top 8 draft picks on secondary.

I like the top 5 picks in your mock. I can definitely see MJH (or a trade back) by NE, and if Daniels makes it to 5, get your popcorn out.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Nice mock. I don't see the Ravens taking another WR though... They already have a stud in Flowers, and Lamar proved once again he isn't a throwing QB. esp a WR who is a deep ball specialist

A WR in the first is wasted 2 yrs in a row imo, but could be wrong.

The bolded is shtick right? I mean 2 MVPs in 5 years. Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson is the entire list of guys who have ever done that. 11 guys, all of whom are likely HOFers.

I think Lamar is a good passer. He's a better runner, but that's not a knock, as he's the best runner. He was 3rd in the NFL in passer rating, despite not having his best guy for most of the 2nd half of the season. I think adding another weapon (one who should be better than Beckham/Bateman/Agholor) could provide a huge upgrade to the Ravens offense, especially a deep ball guy even if most of his job is keeping a Safety deep and away from Andrews/Flowers.

Jer'Zhan Newton was a candidate if he fell further for the Ravens. I think WR/DL/RB are their top needs.

Baltimore HAS to address their OL. Both starting Gs are UFAs. RT Morgan Moses is 400 years old and LT Stanley is a possible cut if he won't restructure. They'll do it in some combination of draft/FA.

The Ravens are always paranoid about DB depth.

They've proven that they can find and develop RBs from anywhere, so I'd be shocked if they went there in RD 1 (plus, I think they're gonna hook Derrick Henry).

They're franchising Madabiuke (sp?) and have other guys already who can be effective alongside of him.

I don't think a receiver is as dire a need as others do. But they need Bateman to be able to stay on the field to make it work and they won't know that at draft-time (based on history, they won't know it after either).

Outside of QB, C, & RB, I don't think any position is off of the table at #30. I know it's a cliche, but they'll take who they think is the best player outside of the 3 positions I just named. If they had players rated equally at every position when 1.30 comes around, my guess is that they'd go OL then CB then who knows.

 

[travdogg]

Nice mock. I don't see the Ravens taking another WR though... They already have a stud in Flowers, and Lamar proved once again he isn't a throwing QB. esp a WR who is a deep ball specialist

A WR in the first is wasted 2 yrs in a row imo, but could be wrong.

The bolded is shtick right? I mean 2 MVPs in 5 years. Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson is the entire list of guys who have ever done that. 11 guys, all of whom are likely HOFers.

I think Lamar is a good passer. He's a better runner, but that's not a knock, as he's the best runner. He was 3rd in the NFL in passer rating, despite not having his best guy for most of the 2nd half of the season. I think adding another weapon (one who should be better than Beckham/Bateman/Agholor) could provide a huge upgrade to the Ravens offense, especially a deep ball guy even if most of his job is keeping a Safety deep and away from Andrews/Flowers.

Jer'Zhan Newton was a candidate if he fell further for the Ravens. I think WR/DL/RB are their top needs.

Baltimore HAS to address their OL. Both starting Gs are UFAs. RT Morgan Moses is 400 years old and LT Stanley is a possible cut if he won't restructure. They'll do it in some combination of draft/FA.

The Ravens are always paranoid about DB depth.

They've proven that they can find and develop RBs from anywhere, so I'd be shocked if they went there in RD 1 (plus, I think they're gonna hook Derrick Henry).

They're franchising Madabiuke (sp?) and have other guys already who can be effective alongside of him.

I don't think a receiver is as dire a need as others do. But they need Bateman to be able to stay on the field to make it work and they won't know that at draft-time (based on history, they won't know it after either).

Outside of QB, C, & RB, I don't think any position is off of the table at #30. I know it's a cliche, but they'll take who they think is the best player outside of the 3 positions I just named. If they had players rated equally at every position when 1.30 comes around, my guess is that they'd go OL then CB then who knows.

I think Zietler re-signs, and probably for a pretty cheap deal. Moses is 33 and Stanley is 30, so they could use some youth there, but I could see that being pushed to next year or at least day 2, especially if Stanley restructures. Personally, I'd dump Stanley and just roll with Mekari there, who in my eyes was just as good when he had to fill in. Losing Simpson would be addition by subtraction in my eyes. He's the worst starter on the roster, and I think Lamar makes life really easy on OL, as he escapes more pressures than anyone. I think he can be replaced extremely easily.

100% agree on tagging Madabiuke. Though, I'm not expecting an extension (nor should they in my opinion) so that was sort of why I suggested Newton as a round 1 option. The Ravens do have a nice history of getting ahead of these things.

RB certainly isn't an option in round 1, nobody is worthy. I do think that upgrading the position is important though. They've gotten production from average guys, but as SF showed, that means they could possibly get dominance from a better guy. Henry or Jacobs would be nice there (I still don't see Barkley hitting the market) and I think "buying low" on someone like Ekeler on the cheap could be interesting as well.

Its just my opinion, but I think Bateman is in the category of basically being on the roster, but not someone to really consider being a player to count on. I see WR as Flowers and nothing else. I'd be shocked if Beckham returned.

I do wonder if they might sign Queen long-term. I know it sounds unlikely to have 2 high priced LBs in 2024, but it also feels wrong to let a 25 year old who has improved every year walk. I'd certainly prefer to keep Queen than Stanley.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Nice mock. I don't see the Ravens taking another WR though... They already have a stud in Flowers, and Lamar proved once again he isn't a throwing QB. esp a WR who is a deep ball specialist

A WR in the first is wasted 2 yrs in a row imo, but could be wrong.

The bolded is shtick right? I mean 2 MVPs in 5 years. Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson is the entire list of guys who have ever done that. 11 guys, all of whom are likely HOFers.

I think Lamar is a good passer. He's a better runner, but that's not a knock, as he's the best runner. He was 3rd in the NFL in passer rating, despite not having his best guy for most of the 2nd half of the season. I think adding another weapon (one who should be better than Beckham/Bateman/Agholor) could provide a huge upgrade to the Ravens offense, especially a deep ball guy even if most of his job is keeping a Safety deep and away from Andrews/Flowers.

Jer'Zhan Newton was a candidate if he fell further for the Ravens. I think WR/DL/RB are their top needs.

Baltimore HAS to address their OL. Both starting Gs are UFAs. RT Morgan Moses is 400 years old and LT Stanley is a possible cut if he won't restructure. They'll do it in some combination of draft/FA.

The Ravens are always paranoid about DB depth.

They've proven that they can find and develop RBs from anywhere, so I'd be shocked if they went there in RD 1 (plus, I think they're gonna hook Derrick Henry).

They're franchising Madabiuke (sp?) and have other guys already who can be effective alongside of him.

I don't think a receiver is as dire a need as others do. But they need Bateman to be able to stay on the field to make it work and they won't know that at draft-time (based on history, they won't know it after either).

Outside of QB, C, & RB, I don't think any position is off of the table at #30. I know it's a cliche, but they'll take who they think is the best player outside of the 3 positions I just named. If they had players rated equally at every position when 1.30 comes around, my guess is that they'd go OL then CB then who knows.

I think Zietler re-signs, and probably for a pretty cheap deal. Moses is 33 and Stanley is 30, so they could use some youth there, but I could see that being pushed to next year or at least day 2, especially if Stanley restructures. Personally, I'd dump Stanley and just roll with Mekari there, who in my eyes was just as good when he had to fill in. Losing Simpson would be addition by subtraction in my eyes. He's the worst starter on the roster, and I think Lamar makes life really easy on OL, as he escapes more pressures than anyone. I think he can be replaced extremely easily.

100% agree on tagging Madabiuke. Though, I'm not expecting an extension (nor should they in my opinion) so that was sort of why I suggested Newton as a round 1 option. The Ravens do have a nice history of getting ahead of these things.

RB certainly isn't an option in round 1, nobody is worthy. I do think that upgrading the position is important though. They've gotten production from average guys, but as SF showed, that means they could possibly get dominance from a better guy. Henry or Jacobs would be nice there (I still don't see Barkley hitting the market) and I think "buying low" on someone like Ekeler on the cheap could be interesting as well.

Its just my opinion, but I think Bateman is in the category of basically being on the roster, but not someone to really consider being a player to count on. I see WR as Flowers and nothing else. I'd be shocked if Beckham returned.

I do wonder if they might sign Queen long-term. I know it sounds unlikely to have 2 high priced LBs in 2024, but it also feels wrong to let a 25 year old who has improved every year walk. I'd certainly prefer to keep Queen than Stanley.

There's no way, IMO, they can keep Queen. Some team like Miami or Washington will sign him for a bazillion dollars.

Bateman is really good - just can't stay on the field. As a Ravens follower, I'm ok ok with he & Flowers being WRs #1 & #2. Throw Andrews and Likely in there, and that's a good pass-catching bunch.

Anyway, I trust DeCosta and his staff to pick good players. The last 1st round bust I can recall is Breshard Perriman 10 years ago.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

needs a post free agency update. #1 and 2 probably stay the same. After that there are gonna be some changes. NE primarily. No way they pass on whichever QB is left.

 

[ffmail4me]

needs a post free agency update. #1 and 2 probably stay the same. After that there are gonna be some changes. NE primarily. No way they pass on whichever QB is left.

Most Washington fans (and local writers) seem to think we are leaning towards Daniels more than Maye. Who knows if they are right....

 

[travdogg]

needs a post free agency update. #1 and 2 probably stay the same. After that there are gonna be some changes. NE primarily. No way they pass on whichever QB is left.

Its in the works, likely 2 rounds.

 

[Harjiran]

I think replacing Howell with Mariota is a tell that WAS will select Daniels, who has a similar skillset, at #2.

 

[(HULK)]

I think replacing Howell with Mariota is a tell that WAS will select Daniels, who has a similar skillset, at #2.

I keep seeing this, and I keep thinking this is way off base.