WR: Seperating the really great from solid (1 Viewer)

[Ghost Rider]

I bet you think Aikman was better then Dan Marino too. Start anew thread, please don't make this a big issue in this thread...but please start a new one and I'll join in.

I am not sure what Aikman and Marino have to do with this, but Brady is better than Aikman ever was, so that is a bad comparison. As for a new thread, do we really need another Brady vs. Manning thread? Probably not.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MoP...you discount Boldin versus Fitzgerald due to Edge's presence, yet I think it hurts Fitz not Boldin more. Fitz has been oft targeted in the red zone and particularly the goal line, much moreso than Boldin. Meanwhile Edge has been THE most used back at the goal line over the last four years. Boldin's targets shouldn't change dramatically, but Fitz's TD looks in close are sure to.



For the record, I still give Fitz a slight edge and think he's talented enough that his game will adjust. I just think throwing Edge out there as an argument against Boldin doesn't hold water. Edge changes (hurts?) the entire passing game, sure, but if it's going to impact one of the stud WRs more than the other, I think you've got your signals crossed.

Hi Jason. Thanks for stopping in. I want to address this as your not the only one basically saying if Fitz gets red zone TDs and Edge is going to improve the run than Fitz will lose some scores.Arizona settled for and kicked more FGs than just about any team ever...EVER! Right?

And they had the worst rushing totals in the NFL in the past 4 seasons. I feel strongly they will be able to move the ball inside the 20 and 10 on a more frequent basis this season...meaning they will not have to settle for as many FGs.

Fitz will see an uptick in TD possibly...because they will have more opps down and around the end zone. I feel Boldin will be a good WR but I think his numbers will slide a bit. Fitz is the star, he's treated like a star...he's 3 years younger than Boldin and still maturing.

Fitz to me has the "it" factor and part of this thread is the "it" factor when it comes to these WRs being taken in the 2nd round this season.

Fitz had 6 TD inside the 20...Boldin technically didn't have any.

Fitz: 6 vs Boldin: 0

 

[fightingillini]

Excellent thread, guys

I absolutely agree that WR is the way to go in the 2nd round this year. I play in a PPR league, I would be happy with any of these guys as my WR1.

Regarding Boldin vs Fitz, I believe that Edge will reduce the number of times that AZ will throw the ball, hence less targets, catches, and yards for EACH. But on the flip side, Edge will help keep sustained drives going......they'll have more 3rd and short instead of 3rd and long......so AZ should be in the redzone more often. Advantage Fitzgerald, since he's the best redzone option at WR. Remember that Egde isn't the best redzone RB.

My projections for each are:

Fitzgerald - 86 rec, 1190 yds, 11 TD

Boldin - 92 rec, 1250 yds, 7 TD

Boldin's lack of TD potential puts him clearly at the bottom of the 1st tier, but he's should be in everyone's top 10.

 

[Jason Wood]

MoP...you discount Boldin versus Fitzgerald due to Edge's presence, yet I think it hurts Fitz not Boldin more. Fitz has been oft targeted in the red zone and particularly the goal line, much moreso than Boldin. Meanwhile Edge has been THE most used back at the goal line over the last four years. Boldin's targets shouldn't change dramatically, but Fitz's TD looks in close are sure to.



For the record, I still give Fitz a slight edge and think he's talented enough that his game will adjust. I just think throwing Edge out there as an argument against Boldin doesn't hold water. Edge changes (hurts?) the entire passing game, sure, but if it's going to impact one of the stud WRs more than the other, I think you've got your signals crossed.

Hi Jason. Thanks for stopping in. I want to address this as your not the only one basically saying if Fitz gets red zone TDs and Edge is going to improve the run than Fitz will lose some scores.Arizona settled for and kicked more FGs than just about any team ever...EVER! Right?

And they had the worst rushing totals in the NFL in the past 4 seasons. I feel strongly they will be able to move the ball inside the 20 and 10 on a more frequent basis this season...meaning they will not have to settle for as many FGs.

Fitz will see an uptick in TD possibly...because they will have more opps down and around the end zone. I feel Boldin will be a good WR but I think his numbers will slide a bit. Fitz is the star, he's treated like a star...he's 3 years younger than Boldin and still maturing.

Fitz to me has the "it" factor and part of this thread is the "it" factor when it comes to these WRs being taken in the 2nd round this season.

Fitz had 6 TD inside the 20...Boldin technically didn't have any.

Fitz: 6 vs Boldin: 0

You bring up a valid counterargument. To be clear I have Fitz ranked higher, I just don't think they're as far apart as I think you do.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MoP...you discount Boldin versus Fitzgerald due to Edge's presence, yet I think it hurts Fitz not Boldin more. Fitz has been oft targeted in the red zone and particularly the goal line, much moreso than Boldin. Meanwhile Edge has been THE most used back at the goal line over the last four years. Boldin's targets shouldn't change dramatically, but Fitz's TD looks in close are sure to.



For the record, I still give Fitz a slight edge and think he's talented enough that his game will adjust. I just think throwing Edge out there as an argument against Boldin doesn't hold water. Edge changes (hurts?) the entire passing game, sure, but if it's going to impact one of the stud WRs more than the other, I think you've got your signals crossed.

Hi Jason. Thanks for stopping in. I want to address this as your not the only one basically saying if Fitz gets red zone TDs and Edge is going to improve the run than Fitz will lose some scores.Arizona settled for and kicked more FGs than just about any team ever...EVER! Right?

And they had the worst rushing totals in the NFL in the past 4 seasons. I feel strongly they will be able to move the ball inside the 20 and 10 on a more frequent basis this season...meaning they will not have to settle for as many FGs.

Fitz will see an uptick in TD possibly...because they will have more opps down and around the end zone. I feel Boldin will be a good WR but I think his numbers will slide a bit. Fitz is the star, he's treated like a star...he's 3 years younger than Boldin and still maturing.

Fitz to me has the "it" factor and part of this thread is the "it" factor when it comes to these WRs being taken in the 2nd round this season.

Fitz had 6 TD inside the 20...Boldin technically didn't have any.

Fitz: 6 vs Boldin: 0

You bring up a valid counterargument. To be clear I have Fitz ranked higher, I just don't think they're as far apart as I think you do.

And many felt the same way about Wayne/Harrison last season. Wayne still caught a lot of balls and he still produced the yards...but ask most owners that drafted him in the late 2nd/early 3rd round if they feel he lived up to billing last season?It's hard for 2 WR to produce 1,400+ yds year in and year out....hardly ever happens. I think the TD will be the biggest difference in the 2 of them.

Jason as always, good stuff.

 

[AB in DC]

Boldin actually had 3 more that were exactly 20 yards, so your stat here is a little misleading. He had none inside of 20. Fitz, however, had TDs of 1, 5, 7, and 8. I would think that Edge is much more likely to vulture those TDs than he is Boldins from 20+.

More likely that Edge will "vulture" Rackers's FG attempts than either of the WR's TDs. Last year, the Cards had 19 TD receptions by WRs, which is nothing to write home about. Instead, I think what you'll see is that total targets/receptions/yards will drop off a lot. That's one reason why I'd rank Fitz over Boldin right now.

 

[Browns Rule!]

Steve Smith is your man and you know he is going to rack up 1800 yds and 18 TD, then you can grab him with almost any pick.

Steve Smith:

ADP 2.01

Smith is off to a rough start this season. He has tweaked a hammy and that could have lingering effects for the 2006 season. He did miss most of 2004 with a broken leg. Even at 100% I think he will be hard pressed to duplicate a 1,500/12TD perfromance of a year ago.

1st off the running game will be much improved. DeAngelo Williams is there to take over if/when Foster is injured. Foster and Williams may provide a very nice 1-2 punch on the ground. Add in Keyshawn and I doubt Smith will need to catch 100 balls thiss eason...80 seems more likely and if you dip his number by about 20% from last season, I think 1200/10TD is a bit more realistic this year. Will people be disappointed that take him so high and get that type of production? Owners want a duplication of last season and I don't see that as a likely scenario.

Might want to fix this one

 

[MelvinTScupper]

decent analysis, but the Boldin hate is laughable.

 

[Pots]

Boldin broke the 100-yard mark in 8 of 14 games last year. :wow:

Fitz: 7/16

Owens: 4/7

Moss: 4/16

Harrison: 6/16

Holt: 6/16

CJ: 4/16

SSmith: 9/16

So Boldin had the best percentage of 100-yard games/games played last year...but you don't think he's in the same tier as those guys??

Boldin went from 8 TDs in 2003 to 7 TDs in 2005...a decrease of about 12.5%Fitz went from 8 TDs in 2004 to 10 TDs in 2005...an increase of 25%

This is a total swing of about 37.5% in a couple of seasons. We can twist stats as we like...you and I have been good at it for a long long time Stu..you know I think your one of the best on FBG, we used to have some great debates when you went under another name...

10 TD vs 7 TD...difference of about 43% it seems.

Is this guy serious? TDs just go to whoever is open at the time and he SHOULD know they fluctuate yearly by a great amount. 8 to 7 TDs is a noticable trend of decreasing production? That's ridiculous.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Steve Smith is your man and you know he is going to rack up 1800 yds and 18 TD, then you can grab him with almost any pick.

Steve Smith:

ADP 2.01

Smith is off to a rough start this season.  He has tweaked a hammy and that could have lingering effects for the 2006 season.  He did miss most of 2004 with a broken leg.  Even at 100% I think he will be hard pressed to duplicate a 1,500/12TD perfromance of a year ago. 

1st off the running game will be much improved.  DeAngelo Williams is there to take over if/when Foster is injured.  Foster and Williams may provide a very nice 1-2 punch on the ground.  Add in Keyshawn and I doubt Smith will need to catch 100 balls thiss eason...80 seems more likely and if you dip his number by about 20% from last season, I think 1200/10TD is a bit more realistic this year.  Will people be disappointed that take him so high and get that type of production?  Owners want a duplication of last season and I don't see that as a likely scenario.

Might want to fix this one

Read it over again...a lot of my threads are written in jest. I was talking in general, I wasn't saying Smith would get those numbers...I was sort of joking. Get it...haha...I'm here all week.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Boldin broke the 100-yard mark in 8 of 14 games last year. :wow:

Fitz: 7/16

Owens: 4/7

Moss: 4/16

Harrison: 6/16

Holt: 6/16

CJ: 4/16

SSmith: 9/16

So Boldin had the best percentage of 100-yard games/games played last year...but you don't think he's in the same tier as those guys??

Boldin went from 8 TDs in 2003 to 7 TDs in 2005...a decrease of about 12.5%Fitz went from 8 TDs in 2004 to 10 TDs in 2005...an increase of 25%

This is a total swing of about 37.5% in a couple of seasons. We can twist stats as we like...you and I have been good at it for a long long time Stu..you know I think your one of the best on FBG, we used to have some great debates when you went under another name...

10 TD vs 7 TD...difference of about 43% it seems.

Is this guy serious? TDs just go to whoever is open at the time and he SHOULD know they fluctuate yearly by a great amount. 8 to 7 TDs is a noticable trend of decreasing production? That's ridiculous.

Did you gloss over that part? Stuart knows I am yanking his chain a bit here.

 

[The Jerk]

decent analysis, but the Boldin hate is laughable.

Where do you see any Boldin hate? If it's acceptable to rate Fitz and Boldin as roughly equal, why is it unacceptable to have Fitz slightly ahead of Boldin.In the FBG expert rankings, only Tremblay has Boldin slotted ahead of Fitz. Boldin has a high of 4 and a low of 14; Fitzgerald a high of 1 and a low of 7. I guess everyone except Maurile "hates" Boldin, too. Essentially, the higher upside of Fitz is why I (and others) see him as top tier while seeing Boldin as high second tier. It might not be right, but the fact that I see Fitz as better than Boldin speaks more to how talented Fitz is rather than what a stiff Boldin is.

 

[moleculo]

Lots of discussion on Boldin vs Fitz, and the “Edge” effect. What about the other side of the “Edge” effect? How will the Colts cope with the loss of Edge, wrt Harisson/Wayne?

It has been mentioned that Arizona had the lowest rushing totals in the past 4 years. I think that even more significantly, their run/pass ratio was .3495, the lowest ratio of any team in the past 10 years!! That is to say, they were the most pass-heavy team in the past decade. I don’t think its unreasonable at all to assume that the mere presence of a running game will significantly decrease the # of passes, thereby eroding BOTH WR’s production. I see both of these guys around 1000-8.

On the other side of the coin: Indy is left w/ Rhoades and Addai. While it is possible that these guys have success, I think that Manning will be less likely to call audibles to the RB if he sees a hole in the D – especially early. I think it is more likely that Indy passes significantly more than they did last year. This should benefit Harrison and Wayne equally, but if Harrison finally takes a step back, Wayne should definitely see increased production. I can see both of these guys putting up around 1200-11.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Lots of discussion on Boldin vs Fitz, and the “Edge” effect.  What about the other side of the “Edge” effect?  How will the Colts cope with the loss of Edge, wrt Harisson/Wayne?

It has been mentioned that Arizona had the lowest rushing totals in the past 4 years.  I think that even more significantly, their run/pass ratio was .3495, the lowest ratio of any team in the past 10 years!!  That is to say, they were the most pass-heavy team in the past decade.  I don’t think its unreasonable at all to assume that the mere presence of a running game will significantly decrease the # of passes, thereby eroding BOTH WR’s production. I see both of these guys around 1000-8.

On the other side of the coin: Indy is left w/ Rhoades and Addai.  While it is possible that these guys have success, I think that Manning will be less likely to call audibles to the RB if he sees a hole in the D – especially early.     I think it is more likely that Indy passes significantly more than they did last year.  This should benefit Harrison and Wayne equally, but if Harrison finally takes a step back, Wayne should definitely see increased production.  I can see both of these guys putting up around 1200-11.

(John Lovitz voice) Would you SHUT UP!!! GD, Manning falling to 2.09 in 6 pt TD leagues was looking like a steal.Seriously, this is spot on...Wayne will see an increase in his TD and I can think of far worse combos than Harrison/Wayne for guys picking towards the end of the 2nd/early3rd round this year.

 

[PACKER 7]

Lots of discussion on Boldin vs Fitz, and the “Edge” effect.  What about the other side of the “Edge” effect?  How will the Colts cope with the loss of Edge, wrt Harisson/Wayne?

It has been mentioned that Arizona had the lowest rushing totals in the past 4 years.  I think that even more significantly, their run/pass ratio was .3495, the lowest ratio of any team in the past 10 years!!  That is to say, they were the most pass-heavy team in the past decade.  I don’t think its unreasonable at all to assume that the mere presence of a running game will significantly decrease the # of passes, thereby eroding BOTH WR’s production. I see both of these guys around 1000-8.

On the other side of the coin: Indy is left w/ Rhoades and Addai.  While it is possible that these guys have success, I think that Manning will be less likely to call audibles to the RB if he sees a hole in the D – especially early.     I think it is more likely that Indy passes significantly more than they did last year.  This should benefit Harrison and Wayne equally, but if Harrison finally takes a step back, Wayne should definitely see increased production.  I can see both of these guys putting up around 1200-11.

(John Lovitz voice) Would you SHUT UP!!! GD, Manning falling to 2.09 in 6 pt TD leagues was looking like a steal.Seriously, this is spot on...Wayne will see an increase in his TD and I can think of far worse combos than Harrison/Wayne for guys picking towards the end of the 2nd/early3rd round this year.

I agree about Harrison/Wayne. As I posted earlier I think Harrison presents tremendous value this year. I think he has the better chance between he and Wayne to finish in the top 7 WR. Also I think he'll be around at the 3rd round in most drafts b/c people think he's "on the decline". That may be, but he's still better than 95% of the WRs out there. What's not to like about MH.... he's gold I tell you.

WR7 Harrison,Marvin IND

85/1168/12. People are backing way off MH this season as they anticipate a drop in production b/c Wayne has "unseated" him. BS I say. Harrision is still great and he knows how to get open. Also the Colts schedule gets easier this season and he'll repeat '05 numbers. I think he'll be most consistent game to game this year and not have the sluggish start he had in '05. I have him at 22nd pick, but he'll slide lower in most ppr league drafts. Get him mid 3rd and you are golden.

 

[Marc Levin]

Bottom line: If you project Fitz to be the #1 WR in Arizona, unless it's a virtual dead heat, the #2 WR simply doesn't belong in the first tier. Boldin is the likely choice to lose out on the TDs due to Edge, not Fitz. Boldin may or may not prove to be the better value, but there must be an end to the first tier, and I see it excluding Boldin.

length of TDs last yearFitz

1, 17, 26, 34, 8, 7, 5, 12, 25, 25

Boldin

27, 20, 44, 13, 54, 20, 20

if Fitz is the better red zone target, why is Edge more likely to eat into Boldin's TDs?

I don't think Edge is a better RZ target - my argument is that fewer opps will go to Boldin underneath b/c of Edge, esp. from field goal range. As you can see, Boldin's TDs were mostly from FG range (3 from the 20, 1 from the 27, one from the 13). I believe Edge gets a lot of those calls.Three of those seven TDs were on 2nd or 3rd and long - fewer 2nd and 3rd and long, fewer opps to Boldin.

Not disagreeing with Boldin as a top-tier WR, esp. in PPR leagues, just clarifying my belief in why Edge negatively affects Boldin's numbers, and specifically Boldin's numbers.

Fitz's targets are a bit more evenly distributed, IMO.

fair point, but looking at those TD distances, how could you not conclude that Fitz is the better red zone target?

???I'm confised - was THAT the issue? Fitz was a MORE USED target in the RZ. No argument there. My point is that Edge negfatively affects Boldin's YTD production, so Boldin becomes the absolute bottom of this first tier of WRs for me - and I don't disagree with MoP leaving him off his list.

 

[Marc Levin]

Fitz has been oft targeted in the red zone and particularly the goal line, much moreso than Boldin.

Au Contraire, Mon Fraire (darned my french!)Fitz- targets inside the 20 in 2005:16 targets, 11 catches, 6 TDs4 targets from the Goal Line, 2 catches, 2 TDs.Boldin targets inside the 20:15 targets, 11 catches, 4 TDs (we know that three of those were FROM the 20 and 1 was from the 13)Interestingly, NO targets inside the 5.The point? Both WRs were equally targetted inside the 20. Fitz's size and athleticism obviously made him a more desirable GL target. Boldin is almost exclusively an underneath receiver - your underneath receiver has insifficient room to get separation at the GL - your tall athletic first round receiver, OTOH . . . I do not see Edge's presence hurting Fitz's 4 GL targets. I DO see Edge's presence hurting Boldin's underneath targets. The WRs will be more responsible for working the outside of the field and down deep - not Boldin's forte - b/c Edge is an insanely good target out of the backfield.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Here's the complete list of WRs in the last twenty years that cracked 200 FF points in their 1st or 2nd seasons:

1 Jerry Rice 260.20

2 Isaac Bruce 257.80

3 Randy Moss 233.70

4 Sterling Sharpe 216.80

5 Randy Moss 211.60

6 Larry Fitzgerald 205.00

7 Torry Holt 200.20

Draw your own conclusions...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Here's the complete list of WRs in the last twenty years that cracked 200 FF points in their 1st or 2nd seasons:

1 Jerry Rice 260.20

2 Isaac Bruce 257.80

3 Randy Moss 233.70

4 Sterling Sharpe 216.80

5 Randy Moss 211.60

6 Larry Fitzgerald 205.00

7 Torry Holt 200.20

Draw your own conclusions...

That is awesome! Only in the SHark Pool.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I'll happily take Boldin a little later...

 

[joffer]

Here's the complete list of WRs in the last twenty years that cracked 200 FF points in their 1st or 2nd seasons:

1 Jerry Rice 260.20

2 Isaac Bruce 257.80

3 Randy Moss 233.70

4 Sterling Sharpe 216.80

5 Randy Moss 211.60

6 Larry Fitzgerald 205.00

7 Torry Holt 200.20

Draw your own conclusions...

i don't draw much, sincea) Boldin's rookie year was MUCH better

b) Boldin's PPG last year was better

they're both uber-talented, but i don't see a huge difference either way.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'll happily take Boldin a little later...

Yeah but they are going fairly close to each other in the drafts...your not really getting a deep discount between the two of them...much like Wayne/Harrison.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

I'll happily take Boldin a little later...

Yeah but they are going fairly close to each other in the drafts...your not really getting a deep discount between the two of them...much like Wayne/Harrison.

Funny, because I also prefer Wayne...

 

[Marc Levin]

Here's the complete list of WRs in the last twenty years that cracked 200 FF points in their 1st or 2nd seasons:

1 Jerry Rice 260.20

2 Isaac Bruce 257.80

3 Randy Moss 233.70

4 Sterling Sharpe 216.80

5 Randy Moss 211.60

6 Larry Fitzgerald 205.00

7 Torry Holt 200.20

Draw your own conclusions...

i don't draw much, sincea) Boldin's rookie year was MUCH better

Better than what? He is not on the "topped 200 FF points in their first two years" list.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Here's the complete list of WRs in the last twenty years that cracked 200 FF points in their 1st or 2nd seasons:

1 Jerry Rice 260.20

2 Isaac Bruce 257.80

3 Randy Moss 233.70

4 Sterling Sharpe 216.80

5 Randy Moss 211.60

6 Larry Fitzgerald 205.00

7 Torry Holt 200.20

Draw your own conclusions...

i don't draw much, sincea) Boldin's rookie year was MUCH better

Better than what? He is not on the "topped 200 FF points in their first two years" list.

Yeah, but you know he's talking about PPG.

 

[joffer]

Here's the complete list of WRs in the last twenty years that cracked 200 FF points in their 1st or 2nd seasons:

1 Jerry Rice 260.20

2 Isaac Bruce 257.80

3 Randy Moss 233.70

4 Sterling Sharpe 216.80

5 Randy Moss 211.60

6 Larry Fitzgerald 205.00

7 Torry Holt 200.20

Draw your own conclusions...

i don't draw much, sincea) Boldin's rookie year was MUCH better

Better than what? He is not on the "topped 200 FF points in their first two years" list.

better than Fitz's rookie year

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'll happily take Boldin a little later...

Yeah but they are going fairly close to each other in the drafts...your not really getting a deep discount between the two of them...much like Wayne/Harrison.

Funny, because I also prefer Wayne...

Agree on Wayne that I like him better this year than last but I still think Harrison is a great value at the end of the 2nd round

 

[JayMan]

Here's the complete list of WRs in the last twenty years that cracked 200 FF points in their 1st or 2nd seasons:

1 Jerry Rice 260.20

2 Isaac Bruce 257.80

3 Randy Moss 233.70

4 Sterling Sharpe 216.80

5 Randy Moss 211.60

6 Larry Fitzgerald 205.00

7 Torry Holt 200.20

Draw your own conclusions...

That debate was awesome... up until that comparison...You can see MoP's arguments - and others - stating that Edge's presence won't affect Boldin much (or will affect Fitz and Boldin equally) or conversely that it will affect only him... but to state that one is better than the other one because he had a 200FFpts season... that doesn't cut it...

Someone could counter by saying... Boldin had 101/1377/8 and 102/1402/7 seasons while Fitz only had 58/780/8 and 103/1309/10... Boldin, in these two seasons, on average scores 188 points while Fitz scores 158...

But that would be playing with numbers also... I think we all know that we can find far better arguments to go one way or the other...

In fact, lurking on debates like is why FBG is a great place

My 2 cents...

 

[MelvinTScupper]

decent analysis, but the Boldin hate is laughable.

Where do you see any Boldin hate? If it's acceptable to rate Fitz and Boldin as roughly equal, why is it unacceptable to have Fitz slightly ahead of Boldin.In the FBG expert rankings, only Tremblay has Boldin slotted ahead of Fitz. Boldin has a high of 4 and a low of 14; Fitzgerald a high of 1 and a low of 7. I guess everyone except Maurile "hates" Boldin, too. Essentially, the higher upside of Fitz is why I (and others) see him as top tier while seeing Boldin as high second tier. It might not be right, but the fact that I see Fitz as better than Boldin speaks more to how talented Fitz is rather than what a stiff Boldin is.

Slightly? He's claiming that not only is Fitz some sort of superhuman because Denny had him as his ball boy, all of a sudden he's the golden child.He marks him an entire tier lower.

Eh, what do I care anyway. He's just guessing.

 

[Browns Rule!]

Steve Smith is your man and you know he is going to rack up 1800 yds and 18 TD, then you can grab him with almost any pick.

Steve Smith:

ADP 2.01

Smith is off to a rough start this season.  He has tweaked a hammy and that could have lingering effects for the 2006 season.  He did miss most of 2004 with a broken leg.  Even at 100% I think he will be hard pressed to duplicate a 1,500/12TD perfromance of a year ago. 

1st off the running game will be much improved.  DeAngelo Williams is there to take over if/when Foster is injured.  Foster and Williams may provide a very nice 1-2 punch on the ground.  Add in Keyshawn and I doubt Smith will need to catch 100 balls thiss eason...80 seems more likely and if you dip his number by about 20% from last season, I think 1200/10TD is a bit more realistic this year.  Will people be disappointed that take him so high and get that type of production?  Owners want a duplication of last season and I don't see that as a likely scenario.

Might want to fix this one

Read it over again...a lot of my threads are written in jest. I was talking in general, I wasn't saying Smith would get those numbers...I was sort of joking. Get it...haha...I'm here all week.

My bad, my mind doesn't work sometimes, and gets confused easily I was wondering what was going on, and couldn't get past it

 

[Bri]

MOP,

I use 4 catch games to gauge WRs

Here's this year's list

http://www.footballhangout.com/Bri/2006wr.htm

Looking at each game stats, I try to either notice especially good games or especially bad ones; those are the comments usually.

Years ago, I was(still am) all over the 18 carry mark for RBs. Long story short, 4 catch was the medium I used for WRs and it's worked pretty well for me. If ya look at that column you'll see all the studs had high number of 4 catch games. Well eventually I guess I felt it wasn't enough so...the comments. With the comments and the 4 catch frequency I think I can minimize how many "hot and cold" WRs I draft. In the end, it's not perfect but it works very well for me.

Your first post-too long to quote the whole thing-

Agree on Steve Smith, also add that for me "hammy"=don't draft him. I don't know why but WRs moreso than any other position seem to be bugged by these all year long. And it's never "out" but instead he plays a half and it's just grrr.

Agree on Chad, very much so

Fitz- we've debated he and Boldin here alot, it's very interesting to debate who is better who will get more catches etc. As others said, I guess Boldin should be on your list.

Holt-I think he gets his respect. He's always an early WR. I agree with your Rams OL comments. When they went to the Supe they had a bunch of former NFLE guys playing with Pace. There's a degree of luck involved in getting them all to mesh so well and overachieve. I don't think that franchise spends enough $ on OL or time evaluating OL. Similar to what you said, I can't grab Jackson as high as he's going and then every week wonder if the D will give up a lead so they pass alot.

Owens- Owens is a workout warrior like you said but he's not disciplinned. He regularly hurts his back and/or his groin from overdoing it. He's been out of football, as you know, so I can't tell if he learned his lesson or if he still does that. It's not like we got any updates on his health while he was suspended. Anyhow, I wonder about his age and his back. He completely plays for fun and usually for himself. What if the games not fun for him anymore? I don't see him playing 6-7 more years like Rice.(rambling)

Harrison had two games where he didn't even get 20 yards receiving. That, to me, was the first sign of the great WR getting old. That was "impossible" years ago and would never happen.

I'm curious what you think of the guys playing opposite most of these WRs and how they impact them, if at all.

 

[SproutDaddy]

Boldin's on the same tier as these guys.

Not a chance in Hell...even if pigs fly. Boldin had an incredible rookie year, missed a lot of his 2nd year and last year posted 1400 yds and 7 TD. That is the most Boldin will ever post as an Arizona Cardinal. He is a great WR but he will drop dramatically this season and is one of the most overrated WR on the board this preseason. Edge is going to gobble into some of those WR points...and it aint gonna be Fitz...sorry.Put me on record now. Boldin will be lucky to put up 1,000 yds and 6 TD this season...you can do just as well with Derrick Mason 3 rounds later as you can with Boldin...sorry.

Yo, pass me that stuff your smoking!!!

 

[Isotopes]

What is Boldin's ADP?

 

[Tau837]

Posted my opinion on why Fitz is a better fantasy WR a few months ago:

While I like Boldin a lot, I think 4 things make Fitz a higher ranked fantasy WR:

1. Injury history.

This has already been covered. Boldin has a history that includes serious injuries, Fitz doesn't.

2. Age.

Fitz is 22, Boldin is 25. For dynasty, it is obvious that the player 3 years younger is preferable. But I would argue that it is also important in redraft, at least in this case. Fitz is so young that he is still maturing, both physically and in his understanding of the game. Boldin is already on the front edge of his prime.

3. Yardage.

Everyone raves about Boldin's YAC. But I think some fail to realize Fitz has averaged more yards per catch (Fitz 13.6 career, Boldin 13.1). So, yes, Boldin's YAC is great, but it doesn't lead to an edge in yardage or an edge in scoring (see point #4).

4. Scoring.

Boldin has 16 TDs on 259 receptions in 40 games. 1 TD every 16.2 receptions and 1 TD every 2.5 games.

Fitz has 18 TDs on 161 receptions in 32 games. 1 TD every 8.9 receptions and 1 TD every 1.8 games.

TDs are definitely volatile, but it is hard not to conclude that Fitz is more likely to score, whether due to better ability in the red zone, due to Warner's tendency to prefer him in the red zone, whatever.

I don't feel confident in predicting much of a gap between them in receptions or receiving yards. It is just too hard (for me) to figure out which one of them will have more of either, and by how much. This means I have to believe Fitz will score more fantasy points.

So I think Fitz should be taken ahead of Boldin. To answer the poll question then requires answering these two questions:

1. How much better will Fitz be?

2. How much later than Fitz will Boldin be drafted?

For example, if the two of them are drafted within two or three picks of one another, then Fitz will be the better value. So it isn't correct to blindly say that the one drafted later is the better value. You need to know how much later.

As with all such discussions, it depends on how it shapes the rest of your draft. If you can take Boldin at least a round later, then the question is whether the combination of (player instead of Fitz) + Boldin is better than Fitz + (player instead of Boldin). We can't really answer unless we know who the other players are.

In general, if Boldin is taken a round later than Fitz, I would assume he will be the better value. But I would be surprised if that happens often. If the gap is less than one round, I think it becomes a toss up, and probably favors Fitz.