WR stats since 1980 - 1,000 yard seasons (1 Viewer)

[Musesboy]

Of those that reached 1000 in 2004, the following failed to repeat...

Muhsin Muhammad - changed teams, QB woes

Joe Horn - missed three full games and probably played hurt in others, Brooks benched for a couple

Javon Walker - injured and missed 15 games

Drew Bennett - missed three games, only started 10, moved to WR1, QB woes, WR2s often injured

Terrell Owens - averaged 109 ypg until suspended after seven games

Darrell Jackson - missed 10 games

Michael Clayton - started 10 of 14 games, Galloway played all 16 after starting 7 the previous year

Andre Johnson - missed three games

Ashley Lelie - sucked

Brandon Stokley - previous year was a freak and most WR3s never get near 1000 yards

Eric Moulds - missed a game but an inexperienced QB for half the season was the biggest reason

Nate Burleson - started 9 of 12 games, no longer the no. 2 behind Moss, backup QB for most of the year

Hines Ward - missed by 25 yards after 1004 the previous year but had 11 TDs

At least five of these were due to injury or suspension and impossible to predict IMO (Horn, Walker, Owens, Jackson, Johnson).

 

[Z-Dog]

It's useful to have statistics such as 46% of 1000 yard receivers tend to follow it with another 1000 yard season. For fantasy purposes, the question is can we use what we know to ensure that we predict as many of the repeat performers as possible?

Looking at the 1000 yard receivers from last year (including one TE), how many are likely to miss that mark this year?

Antonio Bryant is one candidate as he changed teams and will be playing with an inexperienced QB as part of a poor offense.

Jimmy Smith has retired.

Gates has an inexperienced QB and may well miss 1000 yards this year.

Kennison has a more conservative coach and a new OC.

Rod Smith has to share with Javon Walker (although I still think Smith will get there).

Chambers has only reached 1000 once, and may have Harrington at QB for part of the year. We will know more as the season approaches, no doubt.

Terry Glenn will be opposite Owens and will likely see a lot less looks.

I think we know enough to predict which will repeat to a greater degree of accuracy than 46%.

I would also factor in the number of times each player has reached the 1000 yard mark. A guy like Harrison has a higher percentage chance of repeating than someone like Bryant who has only reached that mark once. I have added the number of 1000 yard seasons for each player in parentheses (not necessarily in consecutive seasons).

How many repeat with two, three, four or five consecutive 1000 yard seasons to their name?

1 Steve Smith CAR 1563 (2)

2 Santana Moss WAS 1483 (2)

3 Chad Johnson CIN 1432 (4)

4 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 1409 (1)

5 Anquan Boldin ARI 1402 (2)

6 Torry Holt STL 1331 (6)

7 Joey Galloway TB 1287 (4)

8 Donald Driver GB 1221 (3)

9 Plaxico Burress NYG 1214 (3)

10 Marvin Harrison IND 1146 (7)

11 Terry Glenn DAL 1136 (3)

12 Chris Chambers MIA 1118 (1)

13 Rod Smith DEN 1105 (8)

14 Eddie Kennison KC 1102 (2)

15 Antonio Gates SD 1101 (1)

16 Derrick Mason BAL 1073 (5)

17 Reggie Wayne IND 1055 (2)

18 Jimmy Smith JAC 1023 (9)

19 Antonio Bryant CLE 1009 (1)

20 Randy Moss OAK 1005 (7)

Well, let's try it and see. Here are my guesses for who will drop out:1. Santana Moss - He hasn't strung back-to-back good seasons together, primarily b/c of injury. I suspect that between the increased coverage and his frailness, he will not repeat. I also think there are QB issues lurking here.

2. Joey Galloway - Another little, oft-injured guy. I see a resurgence for Clayton as well, so I'll thrown Galloway off the truck.

3. Terry Glenn - I suspect that he'll get fewer looks thanks to Owens.

4. Rod Smith - Love him, but I've got a bad feeling about the Denver offense

5. J.Smith - Duh

6. A.Gates - I beleive that teams will try to force Rivers off of Gates, and that he will not break 1000.

7. E.Kennison - Herm Edwards is going to be bad news for KC's passing offense.

I'll be one more guy goes dow to unexpected injury or suspension or something, I won't even bother trying to predict it. The rest will repeat.

 

[Joe T]

I think we know enough to predict which will repeat to a greater degree of accuracy than 46%.

OK. You just went through and excluded players you don't think will repeat their performance. I don't disagree. But you didn't use any statistical data to support your reasons for downgrading them. You largely did it based on "feel", such as

Terry Glenn will be opposite Owens and will likely see a lot less looks

which just reiterates my point that there is no way to statistically validate current projections based on historical data.

XThere's a boatload of data coming GB.

(No, there's no way you can project any particular player based on these stats alone. No one ever said that.)