Stealthycat
Footballguy
I've got Diggs in over the likes of Jordy, Kupp and Humphries
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WR Stefon Diggs, NE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yet Thielen has racked up 83/1191/4 with a couple of games left catching passes from Keenum.
hardcoredx
Footballguy
Yet Diggs was racking up the points with Bradford and Keenum has missed numerous TD passes to Diggs. You do know Thielan isn't a deep threat?
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JackReacher
Footballguy
Betting on Bradford playing a full season was not a good idea.
Young 8
Footballguy
Revisionism at its best.
Bradford played 1 game and a half.
Thielen 12 rec, 177yds
Diggs 8 rec, 97 yds, 2 Tds
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Keenum comments on this saying that the cold affects everyone playing in the game.
Pat Shurmur said that they practiced outside twice this week in Minnesota and that Keenum was throwing the ball well. It has been in the 20s recently although we did have a day above 30 earlier this week when they may have practiced.
I don't think it will have much of an effect. It being at night instead of around noon does make it a bit colder though.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Theilen is a deep threat. He is a complete receiver. However Keenum is not very good at throwing the deep ball. There is some truth to what you are saying in regards to the difference between Keenum and Bradford.
The reason that Keenum has been better targeting Thielen than Diggs has more to do with Thielen being a larger player than Diggs is. Thielen may adjust to poorly placed throws than Diggs does as well, being a bit longer helps with that. It also is because of match up, Diggs will often draw the better corner in coverage than Thielen will.
Keenum has missed Diggs on some deeper throw attempts this year, I just think those are only a few plays. Overall Thielen has been targeted more on a per game basis than Diggs has, is the main difference between the two in my view. They both have similar catch rate and yards per target numbers. Diggs 8.9 YPT Thielen 9.2 YPT
As far as you thinking Diggs is a top 5 WR I think you are over estimating his ability a bit with that. While I think Diggs is very good and capable of putting up those kind of numbers, I wouldn't rank Diggs that high at all. He hasn't proven enough in my view for that.
For fantasy I think Diggs is a good WR two or 13-24 in fantasy points, not top 5. I can see why people are disappointed with his performance with higher expectations of him. However I think the fault is in the expectations, not Diggs performance.
Using a 4th or 5th round pick on Diggs in redraft seems appropriate for how he has performed. He just hasn't outperformed that draft position as many drafting him I am sure hoped he would. Adam Thielen is WR 7 in PPR formats right now, where I think people were hoping Diggs would be. So it certainly was possible, that just hasn't happened.
Anyone drafting Diggs should have been aware of his risk of injury, which did cost him two games and some lack of utilization in other games following that, as the Vikings do have other options and some time missed carries over to the amount of targets following that.
Diggs does have 6 TD now which is a new high for him. I think coverage of opposing defenses has begun to shift to Thielen more recently, meaning Diggs becomes a more attractive option for Keenum.
The Packers currently have 4 cornerbacks on IR. Davon House is questionable with a back issue. Randall is their other starter. If House can't play they will be very short handed there and the Vikings receivers could have a good day.
I am nt sure if the Packers will focus more on Diggs or Thielen as far as coverage for this game. Diggs has done a lot against them in the recent past, but of course they are aware of what Thielen has done this year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks captain hindsight.
Bradford was healthy for all of the 2016 season you know?
JackReacher
Footballguy
Per Pro Football Reference / Games Played
2010: 16
2011: 10
2012: 16
2013: 7
2014: 0
2015: 14
2016: 15
2017: 2
So if you mean 7 years of hindsight, yeah.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah. He didn't play week one because he was traded just days before. You list 8 seasons. 3 of those he has played in every game.
Sports injury predictor listed him as a 17.5% risk of missing games. Low risk.
Nov 15, 2015 NFL Shoulder A/C Joint DislocationBradford sprained his shoulder in Week 10 and missed two games.
Nov 15, 2015 NFL Head Cranial Concussion Grade 1Bradford got a concussion in Week 10 against the Dolphins and missed the following two weeks as a result.
Aug 22, 2014 NFL Knee ACL Tear Grade 3Bradford tore his ACL in a preseason game and missed all of the 2014 season.
Oct 20, 2013 NFL Knee ACL Tear Grade 3Bradford suffered a torn ACL against the Panthers in 2013 placing him on the IR and missing the last 9 games of the season.
Dec 12, 2011 NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1After injuring his ankle earlier in the season, Bradford re-sprained his ankle forcing him to sit out the next three games.
Nov 27, 2011 NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1Bradford sprained his ankle yet again forcing him to miss the following week's game.
Oct 16, 2011 NFL Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1In Week 6 against the Packers, Bradford sprained his left ankle and missed the next 6 games.
Oct 17, 2009 Non-NFL Shoulder A/C Joint SprainBradford sprained his shoulder in college and was forced to sit out the next 11 games.
Sep 5, 2009 Non-NFL Shoulder A/C Joint SprainNear halftime in a college game, Bradford sprained his shoulder forcing him to miss the rest of the game plus the next 4.
His knee which he has 2 ACL injuries in was re-injured week one of the season and he wasn't able to recover from that. But that is hindsight.
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JackReacher
Footballguy
I said in my post that betting on Bradford to play an entire season is not a good idea. He had played 16 games in 2 of 7 seasons before this one.
Not sure what’s so baffling about this.
Not sure what’s so baffling about this.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
JackReacher
Footballguy
Ok - so 3 for 7. My impression of Bradford has always been that he is a statue in the pocket, and prone to injury. He has repeatedly missed large swaths of games over his career.
I chose to move Diggs before the season for that reason, and because I didn’t trust the coaching staff or offense as a whole. I was obviously wrong on the second part of that.
If you want to believe in Bradford being the picture of health moving forward, then go for it.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't. I just think you were not being accurate in saying that expecting Bradford to stay healthy was a bad bet.
I thought he would be injured at some point in the 2016 season with how bad the offensive line was. He got rid of the ball really quickly and stayed healthy.
I agree Bradford isn't very mobile and obviously the knee injuries are an increased risk of him being re-injured. There was no reason to think that going into the 2017 season however when he had 2 seasons without issue with the knee.
I thought he would be injured at some point in the 2016 season with how bad the offensive line was. He got rid of the ball really quickly and stayed healthy.
I agree Bradford isn't very mobile and obviously the knee injuries are an increased risk of him being re-injured. There was no reason to think that going into the 2017 season however when he had 2 seasons without issue with the knee.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
JackReacher
Footballguy
Speaking for me personally, the die was cast on Bradford way before 2015-2016. Right or wrong, I always assume he won’t finish the season. Been operating on that for years. And I was a big fan of his coming out of OU. Love the way he throws the football.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Whatever.
People hate Bradford because he was the 1st overall pick in the draft just before the CBA. So he has made more money than people think he was worth.
He has been injured and he played for a talent deprived Rams team. Got injured. Got traded to the Eagles for Foles, mainly because the Rams wanted to get out of his contract. People have been bagging on Bradford for so long its like a bad habit.
He played great and was healthy for the Vikings in 2016 and people who hate Bradford have been moving the sticks on him ever since the trade. When they no longer could say he was a bad QB now people are clinging to the fact that he got injured this year and that we all should have seen that coming.
Its BS.
People hate Bradford because he was the 1st overall pick in the draft just before the CBA. So he has made more money than people think he was worth.
He has been injured and he played for a talent deprived Rams team. Got injured. Got traded to the Eagles for Foles, mainly because the Rams wanted to get out of his contract. People have been bagging on Bradford for so long its like a bad habit.
He played great and was healthy for the Vikings in 2016 and people who hate Bradford have been moving the sticks on him ever since the trade. When they no longer could say he was a bad QB now people are clinging to the fact that he got injured this year and that we all should have seen that coming.
Its BS.
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whole-show
Footballguy
Currently have him in over Demaryius Thomas, but really keep going back and forth.
whole-show
Footballguy
Agree, but what really has me considering Thomas though is with Sanders and Latimer being out.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was just noting that Diggs is one of the first players listed as someone people will avoid in redraft next year.
I realize Diggs had a stretch of games in the middle of the season where he didn't do much, and he did miss two games. I just wonder if people realize that Diggs had 95 targets 64 receptions 849 yards 8 TD this season?
Thats not bad. Obviously people were expecting more.
I realize Diggs had a stretch of games in the middle of the season where he didn't do much, and he did miss two games. I just wonder if people realize that Diggs had 95 targets 64 receptions 849 yards 8 TD this season?
Thats not bad. Obviously people were expecting more.
Boston
Footballguy
I think the issue is people know exactly what he did this season...he has now played three years and has yet to play a full 16 games or hit the 1,000 yard mark...right now he has underachieved what many expected of him and worse than that he feels unreliable...that being said he is still 24 and there is no doubt he has talent...the key will be toning down expectations and making sure you do not reach for him (like some owners may have this year) while putting him in a position to succeed which right now I believe is as a #3 WR...
I think Diggs is a tough one in dynasty this off-season. As an owner, I'm wondering if now is the time to move him for a more dependable asset if possible, since I feel like he is mostly highly regarded but it does feel like he hasn't fulfilled his potential so could be a sell low situation where you miss out on the boom. I love his talent but it's possible that Thielen caps his upside and there is some QB uncertainty in Minnesota too. I'll probably hold but he has me thinking.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I hear that. I didn't have Diggs in redraft this year as he was always taken before I would have been willing to. He does have an injury history, even in college, which I think was a large part of why he fell as far as he did in the NFL draft. Some of those injuries have been fluky, but the groin and hamstring issues do seem to be a recurring theme. Diggs even said he was taking better care of his body this offseason with the intent to avoid these injuries, but it did happen again anyways. When he comes back from these injuries, it seems to take him some games to get back involved with the offense also.
I think I have talked about this before, but the way Diggs cuts when he is running routes, he makes some pretty extreme moves and I think that is where the soft tissue injuries come from. I think those cuts add up after awhile and he ends up hurting himself from playing and practicing so hard. So something to be mindful of regarding him moving forward. At least until he puts those injuries behind him and stays healthy for a full season some time.
I think his play was affected somewhat by Keenum not being able to connect with Diggs on some of the long throws as well. Those were some big play opportunities missed that likely wouldn't have been if Bradford stayed healthy. Bradford being a more accurate passer and also having a stronger arm than Keenum has.
Diggs didn't miss any games in 2015 due to injury like he did in 2016 and 2017. He just didn't get to play until week 4 of the 2015 as he was a rookie and the Vikings were playing other receivers ahead of him the first 3 weeks, despite Diggs having a good training camp and preseason that year. I don't recall if Diggs had an injury issue that year that he played through right now. Thats possible, I just forget. Diggs did fade out as far as having fantasy relevant games in the second half of his rookie year. He didn't miss any games like the last two years.though. I do recall him playing through an injury in 2016 as a decoy, but can't remember him doing that in 2015. He was a rookie in 2015 though.
Looking at the 3 year sample for Diggs so far in his career.
40 games 291 targets 200 receptions 2472 yards 12.4 ypr 8.5 ypt 15 TD
Per game stats for his career thus far 7.3 targets 5 receptions 61.8 yards .375 TD
Over 16 games at this rate would be 117 targets 80 targets 989 yards 6 TD = 135 points in standard scoring leagues (finishes WR 16 in 2017 WR 20 in 2016 WR 28 in 2015) and 215 points in PPR (finishes WR 16 in 2017 WR 19 in 2016 WR 21 in 2015)
Those are mid WR two numbers in 12 team leagues except for 2014 standard scoring, where he would finish as a WR 3.
Now maybe you want to discount for the potential of Diggs missing 2-4 games over the season, and thus dropping him to a WR 3 because of that. At least if you can draft him as a WR 3 he offers a bit more value, while drafting him as a WR 2 he would just be meeting that expectation, not exceeding it.
I think I have talked about this before, but the way Diggs cuts when he is running routes, he makes some pretty extreme moves and I think that is where the soft tissue injuries come from. I think those cuts add up after awhile and he ends up hurting himself from playing and practicing so hard. So something to be mindful of regarding him moving forward. At least until he puts those injuries behind him and stays healthy for a full season some time.
I think his play was affected somewhat by Keenum not being able to connect with Diggs on some of the long throws as well. Those were some big play opportunities missed that likely wouldn't have been if Bradford stayed healthy. Bradford being a more accurate passer and also having a stronger arm than Keenum has.
Diggs didn't miss any games in 2015 due to injury like he did in 2016 and 2017. He just didn't get to play until week 4 of the 2015 as he was a rookie and the Vikings were playing other receivers ahead of him the first 3 weeks, despite Diggs having a good training camp and preseason that year. I don't recall if Diggs had an injury issue that year that he played through right now. Thats possible, I just forget. Diggs did fade out as far as having fantasy relevant games in the second half of his rookie year. He didn't miss any games like the last two years.though. I do recall him playing through an injury in 2016 as a decoy, but can't remember him doing that in 2015. He was a rookie in 2015 though.
Looking at the 3 year sample for Diggs so far in his career.
40 games 291 targets 200 receptions 2472 yards 12.4 ypr 8.5 ypt 15 TD
Per game stats for his career thus far 7.3 targets 5 receptions 61.8 yards .375 TD
Over 16 games at this rate would be 117 targets 80 targets 989 yards 6 TD = 135 points in standard scoring leagues (finishes WR 16 in 2017 WR 20 in 2016 WR 28 in 2015) and 215 points in PPR (finishes WR 16 in 2017 WR 19 in 2016 WR 21 in 2015)
Those are mid WR two numbers in 12 team leagues except for 2014 standard scoring, where he would finish as a WR 3.
Now maybe you want to discount for the potential of Diggs missing 2-4 games over the season, and thus dropping him to a WR 3 because of that. At least if you can draft him as a WR 3 he offers a bit more value, while drafting him as a WR 2 he would just be meeting that expectation, not exceeding it.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well who do you think is similarly priced who would be more dependable?RushHour said:
Golden Tate perhaps? You would be giving up a significant age difference there, but he has been more dependable. Doug Baldwin? More dependable but also an older player.
In this context I would like to point out that older veterans who have some proven track records such as Tate and Baldwin were not as reliable at Diggs age either. I think we see WR break out by the second or third seasons, but their more reliable years still come later than that, except for some of the instant star WR one types who hit the peaks of their careers earlier than that.
It is worth considering that Adam Thielen in 2017 was 27 years old, while Diggs was 23 (24 now as his birthday was in November) and that may have something to do with the stage of development of both players this season.
Gally had a nice post in the players to avoid thread which details how close Diggs and Thielen were in the last 6 games of the 2017 season which shows they are actually closer than people may think looking at the raw numbers. For additional context Diggs did have the groin injury which caused him to miss two games and some time to build chemistry to Keenum after returning from the injury as well, while Keenum had become accustomed to look at Thielen a lot more early on and mid season while Diggs was unavailable. Adam Thielen is a larger target than Diggs also and I think he adjusts to poorly placed passes than Diggs does, as other reasons for the difference in performance between the two WR. Keenum was struggling with chemistry with Rudolph for awhile there also, then later on they started connecting more consistently.
Looking at the last 6 games shows that Keenum started being able to connect with Diggs more and not relying on Thielen as much over those last 6 games.
Remains to be seen who is the Vikings QB in 2018. While Bradford seems like on the outside looking in based on Zimmers comments earlier in the season, he didn't close the door on that possibility, and I think Diggs was able to shine a bit more with Bradford as the QB. He might be able to shine more if Teddy Bridgewater is QB as well. If it is Keenum, we see them connecting better over the last 6 games, but I still don't see Keenum as being as good for Diggs as Bradford or maybe Teddy could be.
Anyhow just some things to think about. I seem to recall WR peak seasons being age 25-28 before a very small dip at 29-32 then a bit more pronounced dip at age 33-34 and another drop at age 35-36. Looking at a longer view of history a lot of the WR kept getting incrementally better as they matured, even though they may have broken out and had some success before age 25. Just going off of memory here. I still haven't put the time into doing such a study on WR the way I have with RBs yet.
For all the whining this dude still ended up with 8 Td's in 14 games and played hurt a couple games. Seemed to pick up some team at the end of the year as well.
Agree that he's hard to value in dynasty. Potential is there, and so is the injury risk. And who will be QB next year?
Agree that he's hard to value in dynasty. Potential is there, and so is the injury risk. And who will be QB next year?
He has stud potential. As someone who has owned in two out of the three years he's played, he is also a fantasy season killer. He has a game with 120 yards and 2 touchdowns, and then four in a row where he gives you four points. He's also injury-prone. He's the second option between the twenties for the Vikings, and the third option in the Red Zone behind Theilan and Rudolph.. in the fifth or sixth around, I would draft him just for the chance that he might actually stay healthy and show some consistency. But I would never go higher than that.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
Thielen and back problems + high catch % by Diggs = potential high WR1 numbers IMO
I'll buy on Diggs in every league
I'll buy on Diggs in every league
Agree, with caution since injuries seem to be a problem and we don't know who QB will be - although got to figure it's someone at least decent.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think most will agree that the upside is there, but I have to wonder if this isn't a sell high moment in dynasty formats. Diggs hasn't played a full, healthy season since high school, if then. Each injury will be increasingly damning to his market value. I really like him as a player, but he's a risky own.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think if you value Diggs as a WR two you will be fine.
Sure the upside is there for him to possibly become a WR one. There is also downside that he misses more games again.
As long as you are not paying a WR one price for him, I don't think you will be overpaying and Diggs can certainly put up WR two numbers, even with Thielen also doing well.
Sure the upside is there for him to possibly become a WR one. There is also downside that he misses more games again.
As long as you are not paying a WR one price for him, I don't think you will be overpaying and Diggs can certainly put up WR two numbers, even with Thielen also doing well.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I would be surprised if we have seen his best yet and the Vikings apparently agree. Good receiver in a good offense. If he can stay healthy he should have a good chance to put up some good numbers.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
5 years, 72 million, 40 guaranteed. That's pretty substantial for a guy who has never played a full NFL season, never had 100 catches or 1000 yards. Vikings just walked in to the casino and put it all on "14"
Congrats to Diggs on his big contract
Congrats to Diggs on his big contract
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psychobillies
Footballguy
And Odell in NY.Bazinga! said:
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I'm having trouble figuring out where the targets are going to come from for Diggs and Thielen and how the targets will be distributed between Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph and Cook. The fact that MIN has one of the best defenses in the league coupled with the fact that in the offenses that DeFilippo has had a hand in, no one player has ever commanded more than a 22% market share has me a bit worried. The teams he has been apart of like to spread the wealth. The only thing I've been able to glean from player usage is that TEs (Branidge in CLE, Ertz in PHI) were 1B to a WR 1A in said offenses.
Preseason usage hints towards Diggs primarily lining up outside once again and Thielen working in the slot. Diggs of course has a ton of upside, we've all witnessed it. I'm pretty sure he lead the league in contested catch rate and was ridiculously efficient in the RZ. I'm just having trouble seeing him garner more than 110ish targets and it makes me not like his ADP. Someone tell me what I'm missing.
Preseason usage hints towards Diggs primarily lining up outside once again and Thielen working in the slot. Diggs of course has a ton of upside, we've all witnessed it. I'm pretty sure he lead the league in contested catch rate and was ridiculously efficient in the RZ. I'm just having trouble seeing him garner more than 110ish targets and it makes me not like his ADP. Someone tell me what I'm missing.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
Cousins arm has me favoring Diggs over Thielen. As to usage, who can say? But it's an offense I want shares in, that's for sure.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I think all you are missing is realization (or acceptance) that ADP doesn't reflect this kind of in-depth analysis, but rather more of a who's hot and not mentality, combined with group-think echo chambering. People overdraft dudes that are sexy. Did you see that catch Diggs made in the redzone preseason wk 1? Sexy AF.
If you want sexy, please refer to the last catch of the Vikings New Orleans playoff game
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yeah but a lot of experts are conceivably arriving at high target totals for Diggs and Thielen (130s?) to have them both ranked right on the cusp of WR1. I don't see it and just feel like I'm missing something entirely. How many pass attempts can we expect from Cousins this year? Wentz was on pace for 540 last year (which I actually think is a good proxy) and had 607 the year before. When DeFillipo was the OC in CLE Manziel, McCown and Davis combined for 609. Vegas is projecting 10 wins for MIN this year, they projected 7 for PHI in both 2017 and 16 and I won't bother checking CLE's since I'm sure it was low. Even if Cousins tosses the rock 600 times, which I'm not expecting, I'd still think that their ADPs were slightly inflated. Maybe @Biabreakable could enlighten me?
