WR Tyler Lockett, LV (3 Viewers)

[Interseptopus]

found it : 

Not that it's necessarily likely, but I do think Lockett still has a decent chance of being a low fantasy WR1 or high WR2 in the future, and potentially his team's WR1.  His path so far is very similar to the two previous Seattle WR2's who were the same size and became reliable fantasy options.

First 3 years in Seattle:
Golden Tate: 101-1297-10
Doug Baldwin: 130-1923-12
Tyler Lockett: 137-1816-9

 

[Milkman]

with regards to his injury, it's pretty catastrophic. I believe I made a comment somewhere in here regarding how awful this is, and hopefully provided some skepticism on his 2017 outlook. I like him 18 months post injury more than i liked him 9 months post. 

18 months is plenty of time to put in the effort to get back to preinjury status. the question is has he? I like his opportunity. Richardson and Graham are gone. that's a lot of targets and TDs up for grabs. granted Seattle wants to run more but there will be plenty for Lockett.

Many people are judging and valuing Lockett on his 2017 performance. Big mistake and I chalk 2017 up as a lost season in recovery like I do Mariota and Carr, and like I would for Dalvin Cook if he has a down year. These bad injuries slow you down big time and really need 12 months to recover from. If he doesnt take the leap in 2018 he likely never does.

in a different thread someone compared the first 3 seasons of Lockett to other notable Seattle WRs. Baldwin being one. the stats were identical. 

buy while you can before training camp starts and the hype begins. 

Nice! Thank you. I was hoping you would chime in. I own him in one league. I just couldn't drop him. The play he breaks his leg he looks like Antonio Brown. 

 

[Elevencents]

Wow FBG has him as WR61. If that’s where he is coming off the board I am all over him a couple rounds earlier. Hoping my league mates sleep on him. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Nice! Thank you. I was hoping you would chime in. I own him in one league. I just couldn't drop him. The play he breaks his leg he looks like Antonio Brown. 

he was a throw in on a different trade from his owner. I couldnt believe it. Got a 1st, Lockett and Jordan Howard for Hines, Stafford, a 2 and 3. (then flipped Howard for a 1, 2, yeldon- may have sold him cheap but I didnt want him at all.)

 

[jtd13]

Just acquired him for a 2019 3rd. He's the discount Parker (post hype sleeper with a lot of targets available). With Seattle's defense deteriorating (more passing) and Lockett looking like the clear cut #2 option, I have a hard time seeing him not finish in the top 30 WRs.

 

[squistion]

Just acquired him for a 2019 3rd. He's the discount Parker (post hype sleeper with a lot of targets available). With Seattle's defense deteriorating (more passing) and Lockett looking like the clear cut #2 option, I have a hard time seeing him not finish in the top 30 WRs.

Gee, I dunno...he has been really streaky in the past and could not be counted on in PPR for even a bye week flex. That said, there are others out there that feel he way you do:

Brad Evans‏Verified account @YahooNoise Jul 21

Tyler Lockett is a prime late-round target (147.8 ADP, WR61). 175 TGTs up for grabs in SEA post-Graham/P-Rich. Lockett ranked WR7 in success rate vs. man coverage in '17 per #ReceptionPerception. SEA D sketchy. If he finally nets 18%+ in target share ... employable WR3.

 

[tombonneau]

Just acquired him for a 2019 3rd. He's the discount Parker (post hype sleeper with a lot of targets available). With Seattle's defense deteriorating (more passing) and Lockett looking like the clear cut #2 option, I have a hard time seeing him not finish in the top 30 WRs.

In return yard leagues for sure. He was WR20 last year in ours. I actually expected him to exceed that this year. But even as a ppr play, this feels like the make or break year. If he's fully healed and has his explosion back, I think he's very good value. 

 

[jtd13]

Gee, I dunno...he has been really streaky in the past and could not be counted on in PPR for even a bye week flex. That said, there are others out there that feel he way you do:

Brad Evans‏Verified account @YahooNoise Jul 21

Tyler Lockett is a prime late-round target (147.8 ADP, WR61). 175 TGTs up for grabs in SEA post-Graham/P-Rich. Lockett ranked WR7 in success rate vs. man coverage in '17 per #ReceptionPerception. SEA D sketchy. If he finally nets 18%+ in target share ... employable WR3.

Maybe I'm just buying since, unlike Parker, I haven't owned him though the disappointing failed breakouts the last few years. But the ability he showed outside of last year + the open targets + the expectation that Wilson's attempts should keep increasing has me wondering what I am missing with this guy. 

 

[Boston]

Maybe I'm just buying since, unlike Parker, I haven't owned him though the disappointing failed breakouts the last few years. But the ability he showed outside of last year + the open targets + the expectation that Wilson's attempts should keep increasing has me wondering what I am missing with this guy. 

Past performance...I have him and am cautiously optimistic but I have had him a few times in the past and he has not delivered...after a very solid rookie season (51-664-6) he looked like he was the real deal but his numbers in 2016 were 49-597-1 and in 2017 45-555-2 (his highest target total in 3 years is 71)...those numbers are not fantasy relevant and in non-Dynasty formats he was waiver wire fodder...now I do believe his injury was a major set-back but let's remember he was not a first round "can't miss" type of prospect...after 3 years he is still pretty much an unknown quantity...on the good side of things he has an excellent opportunity when you look at the Seahawk offensive weapons, he plays with a stud QB and I do think it is obvious there is talent here...I think it is real important that he gets off to a good start where he earns the trust of his fantasy owners because if not he is a guy you have to think about cutting once some free agents start delivering...it is year 4 and it's time to deliver...

 

[Interseptopus]

Past performance...I have him and am cautiously optimistic but I have had him a few times in the past and he has not delivered...after a very solid rookie season (51-664-6) he looked like he was the real deal but his numbers in 2016 were 49-597-1 and in 2017 45-555-2 (his highest target total in 3 years is 71)...those numbers are not fantasy relevant and in non-Dynasty formats he was waiver wire fodder...now I do believe his injury was a major set-back but let's remember he was not a first round "can't miss" type of prospect...after 3 years he is still pretty much an unknown quantity...on the good side of things he has an excellent opportunity when you look at the Seahawk offensive weapons, he plays with a stud QB and I do think it is obvious there is talent here...I think it is real important that he gets off to a good start where he earns the trust of his fantasy owners because if not he is a guy you have to think about cutting once some free agents start delivering...it is year 4 and it's time to deliver...

I'm encouraged by this:

First 3 years in Seattle:
Golden Tate: 101-1297-10
Doug Baldwin: 130-1923-12
Tyler Lockett: 137-1816-9

 

[smbkrypt24]

I'm encouraged by this:

First 3 years in Seattle:
Golden Tate: 101-1297-10
Doug Baldwin: 130-1923-12
Tyler Lockett: 137-1816-9

Great find. It is stats like this that help me be more patient with players progressions. In the case of Tate and Baldwin was there an increase from year 1 to year 3 in stats unlike Lockett's case?

 

[Boston]

I'm encouraged by this:

First 3 years in Seattle:
Golden Tate: 101-1297-10
Doug Baldwin: 130-1923-12
Tyler Lockett: 137-1816-9

This is a great stat although my fear is Lockett is different than those two...more reliant on the big play...does not feel like he will ever be a WR with big target/reception numbers...

 

[Interseptopus]

Great find. It is stats like this that help me be more patient with players progressions. In the case of Tate and Baldwin was there an increase from year 1 to year 3 in stats unlike Lockett's case?

No for Baldwin:

51/788, 29/366/, 50/778. Baldwin had 4 straight seasons of consistency before he exploded.

Yes for Tate:

21/227, 35/382, 45/688

I think it's tough to grade Lockett's 2017 due to his leg injury late 16. I'm encouraged that he put up the numbers he did.

year 4 is definitely put up or shut up for him

 

[Interseptopus]

This is a great stat although my fear is Lockett is different than those two...more reliant on the big play...does not feel like he will ever be a WR with big target/reception numbers...

I don't know... his ypr is identical to Baldwin. 

Overall his career has been eerily similar to Baldwin's 

 

[Boston]

I don't know... his ypr is identical to Baldwin. 

Overall his career has been eerily similar to Baldwin's 

I just don't see them being the same type of player...Lockett just doesn't seem as well-rounded as Baldwin...

 

[jtd13]

Great find. It is stats like this that help me be more patient with players progressions. In the case of Tate and Baldwin was there an increase from year 1 to year 3 in stats unlike Lockett's case?

Yes on Tate. He increased every year from 1 to 5. 

Baldwin was pretty much the same production years 1-4 except for a big drop year 2. PFR says he played 14 games, so I guess that wasn't for to injury... Anyone know what happened there?

That said, Baldwin and Tate are a lot thicker than Lockett. I don't see Lockett getting kicked to the slot like those 2, which I think helps with PPR consistency. 

 

[Tau837]

I'm encouraged by this:

First 3 years in Seattle:
Golden Tate: 101-1297-10
Doug Baldwin: 130-1923-12
Tyler Lockett: 137-1816-9

IMO this is apples and oranges, though. Context matters.

Baldwin's first 3 years were 2011-2013. In 2011, he led the team in targets as a rookie, but the QB was Tavares Jackson, and Seattle only threw for 3444/15. In 2012, Wilson was a rookie, and the Seahawks attempted just 405 passes... in 2013, they attempted just 420 passes. During this span, Baldwin had 130/825 = 16% of the team's receptions, 1923/10186 = 19% of the team's receiving yards and 12/69 = 17% of the team's receiving TDs.

Tate's first 3 years were 2010-2012. As a rookie in 2010, he wasn't ready; he played in 11 games, starting none, and was 5th among the team's WRs in targets with 39 (behind such luminaries as Mike Williams, Ben Obamanu, Deon Butler, and 34 year old Brandon Stokley). In 2011, he had the same issues as Baldwin, noted above, and, in 2012, he broke out with Wilson. During this span, Tate had 101/882 = 11% of the team's receptions, 1297/10214 = 13% of the team's receiving yards and 10/56 = 18% of the team's receiving TDs.

Lockett's first 3 years are much different. He came into an offense with a mature, high performing QB, and there were more pass attempts to go around than in 2011-2013. During this span, Lockett had 137/1041 = 13% of the team's receptions, 1816/10462 = 17% of the team's receiving yards and 9/91 = 10% of the team's receiving TDs.

So he doesn't compare favorably to Baldwin at all as a receiver. At face value, he looks comparable to Tate, better in receptions and receiving yards and worse in TDs. But context shows that isn't really a great comparison.

I like Lockett, but assuming Wilson will throw for 4000/30, how much of a share of that can reasonably be projected for him?

 

[Tau837]

Baldwin was pretty much the same production years 1-4 except for a big drop year 2. PFR says he played 14 games, so I guess that wasn't for to injury... Anyone know what happened there?

One thing that happened is Seattle dropped from 509 passing attempts to 405 passing attempts in a conservative offense as they eased rookie QB Wilson in. If Baldwin missed 2 games, it certainly seems possible he also played through injury in some others, but I don't recall anything specific.

 

[Milkman]

IMO this is apples and oranges, though. Context matters.

Baldwin's first 3 years were 2011-2013. In 2011, he led the team in targets as a rookie, but the QB was Tavares Jackson, and Seattle only threw for 3444/15. In 2012, Wilson was a rookie, and the Seahawks attempted just 405 passes... in 2013, they attempted just 420 passes. During this span, Baldwin had 130/825 = 16% of the team's receptions, 1923/10186 = 19% of the team's receiving yards and 12/69 = 17% of the team's receiving TDs.

Tate's first 3 years were 2010-2012. As a rookie in 2010, he wasn't ready; he played in 11 games, starting none, and was 5th among the team's WRs in targets with 39 (behind such luminaries as Mike Williams, Ben Obamanu, Deon Butler, and 34 year old Brandon Stokley). In 2011, he had the same issues as Baldwin, noted above, and, in 2012, he broke out with Wilson. During this span, Tate had 101/882 = 11% of the team's receptions, 1297/10214 = 13% of the team's receiving yards and 10/56 = 18% of the team's receiving TDs.

Lockett's first 3 years are much different. He came into an offense with a mature, high performing QB, and there were more pass attempts to go around than in 2011-2013. During this span, Baldwin had 137/1041 = 13% of the team's receptions, 1816/10462 = 17% of the team's receiving yards and 9/91 = 10% of the team's receiving TDs.

So he doesn't compare favorably to Baldwin at all as a receiver. At face value, he looks comparable to Tate, better in receptions and receiving yards and worse in TDs. But context shows that isn't really a great comparison.

I like Lockett, but assuming Wilson will throw for 4000/30, how much of a share of that can reasonably be projected for him?

It's still Baldwin this year but this is Lockett's make or break year. Either he shows what he did at the end of his rookie season and a changing of the guard begins to happen or Seattle brings in some help next year either through the draft or FA. It certainly seems like Seattle believes in Lockett because they didn't bring in much WR help. Baldwin and Wilson have to good of a connection so this year it's still Baldwin but he is getting older......

 

[Tau837]

It's still Baldwin this year but this is Lockett's make or break year. Either he shows what he did at the end of his rookie season and a changing of the guard begins to happen or Seattle brings in some help next year either through the draft or FA.

If by "changing of the guard" you are implying Lockett moving into the WR1 role, he would have to show a lot more than he did at any point of his rookie season. Baldwin turns 30 in September. He still has 3-5 years left as Seattle's WR1.

It certainly seems like Seattle believes in Lockett because they didn't bring in much WR help.

They brought in Brandon Marshall. He was terrible last season for the Giants and might not make the roster. But if he does make it, it is likely because he is good enough to slot into the top 3 WRs.

They signed Jaron Brown to a 2 year, $5.5M contract, with half of that guaranteed. His positive traits are similar to Paul Richardson's, though his hands are suspect. More on him: Can Jaron Brown be the one to fill Paul Richardson’s role? Carroll praises everyone, so take it FWIW, but he said this yesterday about Brown:

On what Carroll has seen out of Jaron Brown, and as a fit with Paul Richardson gone: “Jaron is a guy in that style, he’s long, and lanky, and real fast. He’s physical, done a real good job on special teams coming in, so he’s an all around ball player who will play tough, and block, and go over the middle and take the hits, and deliver the hits. He feels like a pro to us, he knows what he’s doing, he’s comfortable picking up the scheme and he’s a really disciplined route runner. He’s already connected with Russ, already developing a relationship and that is necessary for throwers and catchers. He looks like he’s going to be a nice addition in a lot of ways.”

The Seahawks still have Amara Darboh, who they drafted in the 3rd round in 2017.

And they still have David Moore, who they drafted in the 7th round in 2017. He is a great athlete from a small school, and we know Carroll places high value on SPARQ scores and athleticism. Last season, Moore was a rookie on the practice squad, and the team promoted him to the active roster, cutting Dwight Freeney to do so, when they became concerned that another team could sign him. Carroll has had a lot of positive things to say about him, and he was a headliner in yesterday's training camp workouts:

Here are seven things that stood out on the second day of camp:

1. David Moore had a big day.

It will take a long time to figure out what receivers beyond Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are going to make the roster and earn playing time this season, and the nature of that position means different players will get a chance to shine on different days throughout camp. On Friday, it was David Moore who was one of the biggest standouts, making several catches all over the field, including a couple of deep balls.

The second-year receiver spent most of last season on the practice squad, and has made big strides heading into his second season.

“Thrilled to see that,” Carroll said of Moore’s productive day. “Today, in particular, to get him going. He’s a real natural athlete. Real, natural ballplayer, he’s got good instincts and feel, and he’s really strong—weighs 215 pounds or something like that. You don’t think he’s as big as he is. He came from a real small school and had a background not quite like the kind of stuff we play now, and so he’s got a lot of growth and a lot of potential to grow into our stuff. But, he’s got enough ability that we’re looking for ways to get him the football, so if you noticed today, it was a good example of that and we try to show what he can do so that we can make that evaluation. I don’t feel like we got that done totally last year. It just couldn’t come along fast enough. But now, he’s ready and it was a very exciting day for him out there today.”

Particularly considering all of the other holes the Seahawks had to deal with this offseason (OL, RB, TE, DL, CB, S), I don't think the notion that not bringing in more or apparently better WRs is a significant positive for Lockett. He was expected to be the WR2, and that's what he is.

During Carroll's tenure in Seattle, which also means throughout Wilson's career, the #2 WR for Seattle has never topped 50 receptions, 778 yards, or 7 TDs. The single best WR2 season during that span was Baldwin's 50/778/5 performance in 2014. That level of performance might be good enough to warrant spot starts due to bye weeks or injuries to other players, but that's about it.

What is the basis to believe Lockett will break that trend this season?

 

[rzrback77]

The logic for Lockett is based on three primary factors:

1) poorer defense requiring more explosive offense could force Seattle to throw more

2) lots of targets flew the coop, the loss of Graham should decrease the tight end targets potentially going to the wide receivers

3) Lockett has shown explosiveness and could be that higher targeted second wide receiver

 

[jtd13]

The logic for Lockett is based on three primary factors:

1) poorer defense requiring more explosive offense could force Seattle to throw more

2) lots of targets flew the coop, the loss of Graham should decrease the tight end targets potentially going to the wide receivers

3) Lockett has shown explosiveness and could be that higher targeted second wide receiver

More on point 2, the 3-5 options in the passing game look weaker than they have any other year under Carroll, at least to me. 

 

[Milkman]

Particularly considering all of the other holes the Seahawks had to deal with this offseason (OL, RB, TE, DL, CB, S), I don't think the notion that not bringing in more or apparently better WRs is a significant positive for Lockett. He was expected to be the WR2, and that's what he is.

During Carroll's tenure in Seattle, which also means throughout Wilson's career, the #2 WR for Seattle has never topped 50 receptions, 778 yards, or 7 TDs. The single best WR2 season during that span was Baldwin's 50/778/5 performance in 2014. That level of performance might be good enough to warrant spot starts due to bye weeks or injuries to other players, but that's about it.

What is the basis to believe Lockett will break that trend this season?

I went back and watched some old Lockett tape during his rookie year to make sure I'm remembering right and he definitely flashed WR1 traits. He was also inconsistent as a rookie but that's to be expected. I was expecting Lockett to pass Baldwin up in his sophomore season or maybe his 3rd season.

Admittedly I underestimated how good Baldwin is and how strong the connection between him and Wilson is. I also feel Baldwin's savvy game will age well. Having said that Baldwin didn't exactly light it up last year. His catch rate dropped significantly from that ridiculous 75% he put up in 2016. His yards per catch went up significantly from 2016 when it was just 11.9 to 13.2 in 2017 but if you go back to 2014 he had a 74% catch rate and his yards per catch was 13.1. It seems to me like they are using him wrong. 

The new OC Brian Schottenheimer is going to run the ball a ton but when they get down in games which I see them doing they will be forced to throw. 

In the end I believe in Lockett's talent. He has made plenty of tough catches. I think he is Seattle's third best play maker behind Wilson and Baldwin. When Seattle falls behind they will throw more. Add in all the targets up for grabs and there is a very plausible scenario where Lockett sees 115 targets. If he sees that many targets 1000 yard season is very possible. 

 

[Milkman]

Double post. My bad.

 

[Tau837]

Add in all the targets up for grabs and there is a very plausible scenario where Lockett sees 115 targets

Good post and discussion. On this point, unless Baldwin gets hurt, I'll take the under, and I don't think it is particularly close.

 

[Milkman]

I'm was super high on him pre injury. He's basically a Brandin Cooks who can make contested catches too. However I am concerned that he didn't carve out a bigger role. Two factors I think that contributed to that.

1. Baldwin/Wilson connection

2. Injury

He's 100% now. So we'll see if the Seahawks feature him more going forward. 

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Good post and discussion. On this point, unless Baldwin gets hurt, I'll take the under, and I don't think it is particularly close.

Richardson/Graham had 176 targets last year. How do you foresee all those extra targets being divided up this year and what's a reasonable number to expect to go Locketts's way? 

I have no idea how this is all going to shake out, but Lockett had 71 targets last year which would mean he'd only need to get 30% of the 176 targets vacated by Richardson/Graham to hit 115. That seems like a reasonable amount. 

 

[Interseptopus]

What is the basis to believe Lockett will break that trend this season?

you said it yourself, Seattle did nothing to bring in any other WR talent, or even TE talent

176 targets unaccounted for. Undoubtedly Lockett stands to get a large chunk of those as the WR2

 

[Elevencents]

Current FBG ADP is 154. If that’s the case, sign me up!

Will obviously depend on how the draft shakes out but I would be ok taking him around Round 12 or so. 

 

[Tau837]

Richardson/Graham had 176 targets last year. How do you foresee all those extra targets being divided up this year and what's a reasonable number to expect to go Locketts's way? 

I have no idea how this is all going to shake out, but Lockett had 71 targets last year which would mean he'd only need to get 30% of the 176 targets vacated by Richardson/Graham to hit 115. That seems like a reasonable amount. 

Let's look at this systematically.

Per PFR, here are the total team targets since 2012, when Wilson took over at QB:

• 2012: 402 (405 pass attempts)
  
• 2013: 410 (420 PA)
  
• 2014: 432 (454 PA)
  
• 2015: 472 (489 PA)
  
• 2016: 548 (567 PA)
  
• 2017: 526 (555 PA)
  

I am focused on targets rather than pass attempts, because Wilson is typically among the league leaders in throwaways. I'm not aware of any source that explains the difference between team passing attempts and team targets in detail anywhere accessible, but I assume the difference is due to throwaways and spikes. PFF does, but for whatever reason their data is typically inconsistent with PFR, nfl.com, etc., so I prefer to stick with PFR.

I know Carroll wants to pass less and run more, if possible, and they showed that in the draft, drafting RB Penny and run blocking TE Dissly among their first 3 picks in this year's draft. But the defense will probably be worse this season and offset that desire. So I will assume those factors wash out and result in the same 555 pass attempts as last season. I will reduce that by 20 to 535 team targets to account for throwaways and spikes.

Here are the TE targets since 2012:

• 2012: 87 = 21.6% of total targets - Zach Miller was lead TE
  
• 2013: 88 = 21.5% of total targets - Miller was lead TE
  
• 2014: 84 = 19.4% of total targets - Willson was lead TE
  
• 2015: 127 = 26.9% of total targets - Graham was lead TE
  
• 2016: 123 = 22.4% of total targets - Graham was lead TE
  
• 2017: 133 = 25.3% of total targets - Graham was lead TE
  

Graham and Willson combined for 118 of those 133 targets last season and both are gone. The Seahawks added veteran Ed Dickson and 4th round pick Dissly. They also seem to expect Vannett to take a step forward and significantly increase his involvement in the passing game in his third season. Altogether, I think it is appropriate to project this group for 110 targets, which is 20.6% of the targets. Per the data above, that would be the second lowest percentage for TEs in Wilson's career.

Here are the RB targets since 2012:

• 2012: 76 = 18.9% of total targets - Lynch was lead RB
  
• 2013: 67 = 16.3% of total targets - Lynch was lead RB
  
• 2014: 74 = 17.1% of total targets - Lynch was lead RB
  
• 2015: 80 = 16.9% of total targets - Jackson was lead RB
  
• 2016: 98 = 17.9% of total targets - Michael (!) was lead RB
  
• 2017: 104 = 19.8% of total targets - McKissic was lead RB
  

I expect Carson, Penny, Prosise, and McKissic to make the final roster. McKissic was very good in the passing game last season, Prosise has been good in the limited games in which he has been healthy, and Penny is expected to be good enough in the passing game that he has been discussed as a potential 3 down RB. Altogether, I think it is appropriate to project this group for 100 targets, which is 18.7% of the targets. This fits reasonably well with the trend shown by the data above (i.e., increasing percentage to RBs over past couple of seasons with notably higher pass attempts).

I have 325 targets left for the WRs. Assuming Marshall does not make the final roster and assuming no major injuries to these players, I could see those breaking down like this:

• Baldwin: 125
  
• Lockett: 90
  
• Brown: 45
  
• Darboh: 35
  
• Others: 30
  

This would blow away Lockett's career high of 71 targets, but it probably does not make him particularly valuable for fantasy purposes. Using his career average catch percentage, ypr, and TD percentage, that would project him to 59/785/4 receiving. It seems reasonable that he could improve that TD number, maybe to 6 TDs.

But one thing about Lockett in his career to date is that he has been a boom/bust kind of player, which makes sense given he has operated largely in a deep threat role. He has 4+ receptions in 18 of 49 career games. That scales to just under 6 times every 16 games. In his other 31 career games, he has 54/685/2 receiving... that is 4.3 ppg in PPR. So it has historically been difficult to trust him enough to start him in fantasy, other than in return yardage leagues or really deep lineup leagues.

To more directly answer @FreeBaGeL, I think most of the targets vacated by Graham stay with the TEs and most of the targets vacated by Richardson are spread among the top 4 WRs, Baldwin, Lockett, Brown, and Darboh. I see Lockett with +19 targets, which is +27% over last season, his previous career high.

Of course, he is essentially a cheap flier, with current PPR ADP of WR67 and 170 overall, per FantasyPros. He should certainly outperform that ADP, it just seems like it will be mostly on his owner's bench, again other than in return yardage and deep lineup leagues.

Seattle is my second favorite team, and I like Lockett a lot as a NFL player and would love to be wrong about his fantasy potential. I just don't see the optimism for fantasy that many of you see.

 

[Tau837]

you said it yourself, Seattle did nothing to bring in any other WR talent, or even TE talent

No, I didn't say that, and it isn't correct. They brought in 2 veteran WRs, 1 veteran TE, and drafted a rookie TE. Not on par with Graham and Richardson, and WR Marshall may not make the team, but collectively this group will get plenty of targets.

176 targets unaccounted for. Undoubtedly Lockett stands to get a large chunk of those as the WR2

Yes, I expect Lockett will get about 10% of them.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Let's look at this systematically.

Per PFR, here are the total team targets since 2012, when Wilson took over at QB:

• 2012: 402 (405 pass attempts)
  
• 2013: 410 (420 PA)
  
• 2014: 432 (454 PA)
  
• 2015: 472 (489 PA)
  
• 2016: 548 (567 PA)
  
• 2017: 526 (555 PA)
  

I am focused on targets rather than pass attempts, because Wilson is typically among the league leaders in throwaways. I'm not aware of any source that explains the difference between team passing attempts and team targets in detail anywhere accessible, but I assume the difference is due to throwaways and spikes. PFF does, but for whatever reason their data is typically inconsistent with PFR, nfl.com, etc., so I prefer to stick with PFR.

I know Carroll wants to pass less and run more, if possible, and they showed that in the draft, drafting RB Penny and run blocking TE Dissly among their first 3 picks in this year's draft. But the defense will probably be worse this season and offset that desire. So I will assume those factors wash out and result in the same 555 pass attempts as last season. I will reduce that by 20 to 535 team targets to account for throwaways and spikes.

Here are the TE targets since 2012:

• 2012: 87 = 21.6% of total targets - Zach Miller was lead TE
  
• 2013: 88 = 21.5% of total targets - Miller was lead TE
  
• 2014: 84 = 19.4% of total targets - Willson was lead TE
  
• 2015: 127 = 26.9% of total targets - Graham was lead TE
  
• 2016: 123 = 22.4% of total targets - Graham was lead TE
  
• 2017: 133 = 25.3% of total targets - Graham was lead TE
  

Graham and Willson combined for 118 of those 133 targets last season and both are gone. The Seahawks added veteran Ed Dickson and 4th round pick Dissly. They also seem to expect Vannett to take a step forward and significantly increase his involvement in the passing game in his third season. Altogether, I think it is appropriate to project this group for 110 targets, which is 20.6% of the targets. Per the data above, that would be the second lowest percentage for TEs in Wilson's career.

Here are the RB targets since 2012:

• 2012: 76 = 18.9% of total targets - Lynch was lead RB
  
• 2013: 67 = 16.3% of total targets - Lynch was lead RB
  
• 2014: 74 = 17.1% of total targets - Lynch was lead RB
  
• 2015: 80 = 16.9% of total targets - Jackson was lead RB
  
• 2016: 98 = 17.9% of total targets - Michael (!) was lead RB
  
• 2017: 104 = 19.8% of total targets - McKissic was lead RB
  

I expect Carson, Penny, Prosise, and McKissic to make the final roster. McKissic was very good in the passing game last season, and Prosise has been good in the limited games in which he has been healthy. Penny is expected to be good in the passing game. Altogether, I think it is appropriate to project this group for 100 targets, which is 18.7% of the targets. This fits reasonably well with the trend shown by the data above (i.e., increasing percentage to RBs over past couple of seasons with notably higher pass attempts).

I have 325 targets left for the WRs. Assuming Marshall does not make the final roster and assuming no major injuries to these players, I could see those breaking down like this:

• Baldwin: 125
  
• Lockett: 90
  
• Brown: 45
  
• Darboh: 35
  
• Others: 30
  

This would blow away Lockett's career high of 71 targets, but it probably does not make him particularly valuable for fantasy purposes. Using his career average catch percentage, ypr, and TD percentage, that would project him to 59/785/4 receiving. It seems reasonable the he could improve that TD number, maybe to 6 TDs.

But one thing about Lockett in his career to date is that he has been a boom/bust kind of player, which makes sense given he has operated largely in a deep threat role. He has 4+ receptions in 18 of 49 career games. That scales to just under 6 times every 16 games. In his other 31 career games, he has 54/685/2 receiving... that is 4.3 ppg in PPR. So it has historically been difficult to trust him enough to start him in fantasy, other than in return yardage leagues or really deep lineup leagues.

To more directly answer @FreeBaGeL, I think most of the targets vacated by Graham stay with the TEs and most of the targets vacated by Richardson are spread among the top 4 WRs, Baldwin, Lockett, Brown, and Darboh. I see Lockett with +19 targets, which is +27% over last season, his previous career high.

Seattle is my second favorite team, and I like Lockett a lot as a NFL player and would love to be wrong about his fantasy potential. I just don't see the optimism for fantasy that many of you see.

Good breakdown.

I guess some places where I might disagree are that firstly I don't think the current crop of TEs is only going to result in a 10-20 target dropoff in targets from Jimmy Graham.  I think Dickson/Vannett are a lot closer to those guys that were getting ~80 targets/season than they are to Graham.  Dickson has only exceeded 50 targets once in his career.

Likewise the numbers seem a bit high for the WR4+ type players.  Last year all of the receivers/TEs beyond the WR3 and TE2 combined for 22 targets, and you're projecting them for 65 here.

Obviously we're all just guessing here but I could easily see 20+ fewer targets for the TEs and 30-40 fewer targets to the backend WRs than were projected above.  Darboh is probably the wildcard especially in those backend WR numbers but I've yet to really see much to signal that he's going to be anything more than one of those athletic guys we FFers get excited about but never really see the field in real life.

 

[Interseptopus]

No, I didn't say that, and it isn't correct. They brought in 2 veteran WRs, 1 veteran TE, and drafted a rookie TE. Not on par with Graham and Richardson, and WR Marshall may not make the team, but collectively this group will get plenty of targets.

Yes, I expect Lockett will get about 10% of them.

you mentioned that they could have brought better or more wrs in, but the fact that they didnt isnt a positive for Lockett because he's the WR2. 

so you expect Lockett to get an additional 17 targets going from the wr3 to wr2... odd but ok. 

who is getting the other 160 targets? nevermind, I see above. 

I dont think the te position is getting 100 targets. no way. they had talent there before, and the talent there now is a shell of Graham and Miller. 70 targets max imo.  

TE got 80+ targets because the talent was good. talent isnt as good there, so I dont expect the targets to be there 

 

[Tau837]

you mentioned that they could have brought better or more wrs in, but the fact that they didnt isnt a positive for Lockett because he's the WR2. 

so you expect Lockett to get an additional 17 targets going from the wr3 to wr2... odd but ok. 

who is getting the other 160 targets?

Read my post at prior to the one you quoted.

 

[Interseptopus]

Read my post at prior to the one you quoted.

yep. I edited

 

[Milkman]

What Lockett did his rookie year is being sold a little short. He was an all pro his rookie year. Yes it was as a kick returner but some of those skills do translate to WR. He also had lots of great plays as a rookie playing receiver too. He was really good. Carroll traded up for this guy in 2015 too. I'm not completely convinced he's going to blow up. I just see a scenario where he could get 115 targets. So his upside is WR2. 

 

[Interseptopus]

What Lockett did his rookie year is being sold a little short. He was an all pro his rookie year. Yes it was as a kick returner but some of those skills do translate to WR. He also had lots of great plays as a rookie playing receiver too. He was really good. Carroll traded up for this guy in 2015 too. I'm not completely convinced he's going to blow up. I just see a scenario where he could get 115 targets. So his upside is WR2. 

I agree. I think he's at least flex worthy. considering his ADP hes a bargain even if he does only get 90 targets. I see about 115 targets as well

 

[Tau837]

Good breakdown.

I guess some places where I might disagree are that firstly I don't think the current crop of TEs is only going to result in a 10-20 target dropoff in targets from Jimmy Graham.  I think Dickson/Vannett are a lot closer to those guys that were getting ~80 targets/season than they are to Graham.  Dickson has only exceeded 50 targets once in his career.

...I could easily see 20+ fewer targets for the TEs...

To be accurate, I projected 110 targets, which is 23 fewer TE targets than Seattle had last season. Not 10-20 fewer.

Yes, I agree this group is closer to the 2012-2014 group in terms of talent. But that group collectively accounted for 20.8% of team targets in 2012-2014. Reducing from 110 to 90 targets would project this group to account for just 16.8% of team targets, which would be considerably lower than any TE group in Wilson's career.

I could see 110 targets breaking down like this:

• Dickson: 50
  
• Vannett: 40
  
• Dissly/others: 20
  

Dickson had 48 targets last season in Carolina, and actually had a season with 89 targets, though that was several years ago.  

Likewise the numbers seem a bit high for the WR4+ type players.  Last year all of the receivers/TEs beyond the WR3 and TE2 combined for 22 targets, and you're projecting them for 65 here.

...I could easily see... 30-40 fewer targets to the backend WRs than were projected above.  Darboh is probably the wildcard especially in those backend WR numbers but I've yet to really see much to signal that he's going to be anything more than one of those athletic guys we FFers get excited about but never really see the field in real life.

Comments:

1. Last season, the top 3 WRs were Baldwin (116), Richardson (80), and Lockett (71). who totaled 267 targets. I am projecting Baldwin (125) and Lockett (90) to both have more targets than their respective WR1 and WR2 slots had last season. I could have certainly projected WR3 Brown with 66-71 targets, like WR3 had the past 2 seasons, but I thought that was a stretch, and it was more likely that he would split WR3 targets with an increase in Darboh's role in his second season. Sure, Darboh might not make the improvement the coaching staff wants, but then Moore might step into that role instead.
   
2. Yes, last season, the WR4+ group had just 22 targets, but in 2016, they had 47. And in both of those seasons, WR3 had 21+ more targets than I allocated to Brown. I think this will be more of a committee approach after Baldwin and Lockett.
   
3. I allocated a higher percentage of team targets to WR in my projections than in 2017. IMO that means more targets for WRs 4+ in addition to more targets for WRs 1-2. 
   

I realize many will disagree with my take, and that's fine. Good discussion.  

 

[Boston]

On another note this thread has made me realize just how thin Seattle is at WR and TE...that is a pretty ugly unit...

 

[Tau837]

The highest number of targets any WR2 has had with Wilson is when Kearse had 89 targets in 2016, which also matched the team's high season in passing attempts and team targets with Wilson. I am projecting 90 targets for Lockett, and many of you are acting like it is completely obvious that my projection is far too low. We'll see.

 

[Milkman]

To be accurate, I projected 110 targets, which is 23 fewer TE targets than Seattle had last season. Not 10-20 fewer.

Yes, I agree this group is closer to the 2012-2014 group in terms of talent. But that group collectively accounted for 20.8% of team targets in 2012-2014. Reducing from 110 to 90 targets would project this group to account for just 16.8% of team targets, which would be considerably lower than any TE group in Wilson's career.

I could see 110 targets breaking  like this:

• Dickson: 50
  
• Vannett: 40
  
• Dissly/others: 20
  

Dickson had 48 targets last season in Carolina, and actually had a season with 89 targets, though that was several years ago.  

Comments:

1. Last season, the top 3 WRs were Baldwin (116), Richardson (80), and Lockett (71). who totaled 267 targets. I am projecting Baldwin (125) and Lockett (90) to both have more targets than their respective WR1 and WR2 slots had last season. I could have certainly projected WR3 Brown with 66-71 targets, like WR3 had the past 2 seasons, but I thought that was a stretch, and it was more likely that he would split WR3 targets with an increase in Darboh's role in his second season. Sure, Darboh might not make the improvement the coaching staff wants, but then Moore might step into that role instead.
   
2. Yes, last season, the WR4+ group had just 22 targets, but in 2016, they had 47. And in both of those seasons, WR3 had 21+ more targets than I allocated to Brown. I think this will be more of a committee approach after Baldwin and Lockett.
   
3. I allocated a higher percentage of team targets to WR in my projections than in 2017. IMO that means more targets for WRs 4+ in addition to more targets for WRs 1-2. 
   

I realize many will disagree with my take, and that's fine. Good discussion.  

It's a good point you make about how much Seattle has thrown to their WR2 in the past. Where you and I differ on it is I think it's wise for Seattle to get Lockett the ball more and the moves they didn't make this offseason seem to point to them doing that. Even you are predicting a significant target jump for Lockett. You just don't believe he will do anything special with those targets where as I think he might and thus carving out a bigger target share as the season progresses. 

 

[Interseptopus]

The highest number of targets any WR2 has had with Wilson is when Kearse had 89 targets in 2016, which also matched the team's high season in passing attempts and team targets with Wilson. I am projecting 90 targets for Lockett, and many of you are acting like it is completely obvious that my projection is far too low. We'll see.

but... Wilson has always had exceptional talent at te and hasn't needed a lot of targets to his wr2. apples to oranges.

If Graham was back, I'd totally agree with you. I think you are underestimating how significant of a loss Graham is compared to who they brought in. 110 targets to a te group such as what they have means you think the offense will be run almost exactly the same as it has in the past. I would contend that they wont try to fit a square peg into a round hole, and will adapt their offense to fit their strengths and weaknesses.

it's my opinion Graham got the targets he did because he was an exceptional TE talent. Not because the offense was designed that way. 

It's fine to disagree. it prompts great discussion rather than just a continuous circle you-know-what for a particular player. 

 

[Tau837]

Wilson has always had exceptional talent at te and hasn't needed a lot of targets to his wr2. apples to oranges.

This is simply not true.

• In 2012, his group of TEs were Zach Miller, Anthony McCoy (who?), and Evan Moore (who?). Meanwhile, he had these WRs: Tate, Baldwin, Sidney Rice, Braylon Edwards, and Kearse. Yet the TE group got 21.6% of the team targets.
  
• In 2013, he had Miller, rookie Luke Willson, and Kellen Davis (who?). Meanwhile, he had WRs Tate, Baldwin, Kearse, and Rice. Yet the TE group got 21.5% of the team targets.
  
• In 2014, he had Willson, Tony Moeaki, rookie Cooper Helfet (who?), and Miller for 3 games. He had WRs Baldwin, Kearse, Richardson, and Harvin for 4 games. This is the TE group that got the lowest number of team targets in Wilson's career - 19.4%.
  

Dickson is comparable, if not more talented than Miller. The team thinks highly of Vannett and Dissly. Maybe they are wrong.  

I would contend that they wont try to fit a square peg into a round hole, and will adapt their offense to fit their strengths and weaknesses.

I agree 100%. Which is why I am projecting Lockett for more targets than any WR2 who played with Wilson and 27% more targets than his career high last year.

it's my opinion Graham got the targets he did because he was an exceptional TE talent. Not because the offense was designed that way. 

I agree that the TE group got a higher percentage of targets throughout Graham's years in Seattle because he was a great talent that merited more targets. His departure is why I am projecting 17% fewer targets to the TEs than last season.

It's fine to disagree

Agreed

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Dickson is comparable, if not more talented than Miller. The team thinks highly of Vannett and Dissly. Maybe they are wrong.  

Regarding the bolded, not that it makes a huge difference in the discussion but Miller had three 90+ target seasons in his four year career before coming to Seattle, with a career low of 68.  Dickson has zero 90+ target seasons and one 80+ target season in 8 years with a career low of 17.  Miller had a much larger history of being used as a receiver despite being in the league half as long as Dickson, and even he still barely worked his way into the mid-40's/mid-50's range in targets in Seattle.

Miller's targets dropped to half of what they had been previously after he moved to Seattle.  Graham's fell off very precipitously too.

Regarding what they think of Vannett and Dissly, well, this is Seattle.  They love everyone

 I am projecting 90 targets for Lockett, and many of you are acting like it is completely obvious that my projection is far too low.

I don't think anyone is saying that at all.  We're all just trying to do our best to make an educated guess.  I am certainly no expert in the Seahawks.  Just enjoying the discussion.  Ultimately this is fantasy football so something totally outside the realm of what any of us have even thought about is probably going to happen.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

FWIW I've never really been a Lockett guy.  Just never really paid much attention to him.  But I think now he's hit a unique intersection where he has probably the best opportunity of his career mixed with by far the lowest cost to acquire of his career, so I think this is finally a good time to take a shot on him.

 

[Tau837]

Fair points on Miller vs. Dickson. Agree it doesn’t make a huge difference in the discussion. 

 

[Milkman]

Good talk guys! This board is awesome when we dicuss different opinions in this manner. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Baldwin suffering from a mysterious knee issue... FBG Daily e-mail mentioned Week 1 status could be up in the air at this point

Enter Lockett  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

The highest number of targets any WR2 has had with Wilson is when Kearse had 89 targets in 2016, which also matched the team's high season in passing attempts and team targets with Wilson. I am projecting 90 targets for Lockett, and many of you are acting like it is completely obvious that my projection is far too low. We'll see.

I'm a big Lockett fan and hoping for more but your analysis is extremely detailed and informative.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Baldwin suffering from a mysterious knee issue... FBG Daily e-mail mentioned Week 1 status could be up in the air at this point

Enter Lockett  

Been waiting for Lockett to break out for years now, and was hoping this was the year as I think he is undervalued at his ADP -- like @Dr. Octopus, I am tempering enthusiasm (my league awards return points where Lockett has had historic added value), but with this Baldwin injury, instead of being more excited about Lockett's opportunity, I'm actually more worried as Lockett may benefit more from having coverage attention diverted to the other side of the field. There is not much behind Baldwin or Lockett, and if Baldwin ails, it may actually be worse for Lockett than better.