WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (8 Viewers)

[menobrown]

So, I’d say there’s a 50/50 chance he’s guilty vs innocent since we don’t really know. If he is guilty, he’s probably lost near all value, since given his history, he’ll be out of the NFL for a long time. Some may think the percentage is different, doesn’t matter. Would you play the odds and sell him for 60% of his former value right now? 

Agree it's 50/50 or put another way I have no idea if he is guilty or not.  Just none. I have my speculations which don't mean much and those speculations are if something was done to the child he's trying to put on the mom, and she is helping because of the income. That  is admittedly speculation without factual merit. It's just a guessing game but one I think dynasty owners need to play to determine if they want to move him now or try and acquire him.

No I would not move him for 60% of his value right now. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

Agree it's 50/50 or put another way I have no idea if he is guilty or not.  Just none. I have my speculations which don't mean much and those speculations are if something was done to the child he's trying to put on the mom, and she is helping because of the income. That  is admittedly speculation without factual merit. It's just a guessing game but one I think dynasty owners need to play to determine if they want to move him now or try and acquire him.

No I would not move him for 60% of his value right now. 

That would be my take as well gun to my head. They were hoping for no investigation, if there was she was gonna take the fall, something happened between the two of them and now she or someone close to her reopened things and is no longer willing to take the fall anymore. If it was abuse, I highly doubt it was her. She’s an elementary school teacher from what I hear.

 

[menobrown]

Reason I ask is I’m usually risk adverse in dynasty.

And I'm a risk taker who think studs win dynasty leagues  so I'd only move Hill right now if I got at least a potential stud back or pick I think I can pick a potential stud. Otherwise, without knowing his guilt,  I'm just going to be like the band on the Titanic and keep on playing till I sink.

Someone in a league of mine posted that last night they dealt Hill for Hunt and a late second. Said they baked when they took the offer and woke up this morning and regretted it. Guy who got Hill is gloating about it. 

 

[fruity pebbles]

And I'm a risk taker who think studs win dynasty leagues  so I'd only move Hill right now if I got at least a potential stud back or pick I think I can pick a potential stud. Otherwise, without knowing his guilt,  I'm just going to be like the band on the Titanic and keep on playing till I sink.

Someone in a league of mine posted that last night they dealt Hill for Hunt and a late second. Said they baked when they took the offer and woke up this morning and regretted it. Guy who got Hill is gloating about it. 

I would not take that cause I don’t think Hunt is any more stable and a lot less talented.

 

[Interseptopus]

Oh it matters. But what I’m focusing on (as this is my hobby) is what has this news - true or not - done to Hill’s value. And it has hurt it. If in two weeks, it turns out he’s completely innocent, then that news will help it. I’m more concerned with where do we go from here versus anything else.

according to Dynasty Trade Calulator Hill is worth Diggs

 

[JoeJoe88]

according to Dynasty Trade Calulator Hill is worth Diggs

Diggs is a great player, but he wouldn't even come close to moving the needle enough for me to move Hill.

 

[fruity pebbles]

according to Dynasty Trade Calulator Hill is worth Diggs

Lol I was like Trump plays dynasty? 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

You just gave the reason why he should be saying something if he did nothing.

better to let the law and investigation take place....no point in saying anything

 

[Interseptopus]

Are we even sure that is what is being investigated? I don't recall seeing that on the police report, just what a reporter relayed but then you got videos out showing his arm was in cast back in January.

Since the march 4th police report said child neglect/abuse, and this one says battery... yes I think its what's being I investigated 

 

[menobrown]

Since the march 4th police report said child neglect/abuse, and this one says battery... yes I think its what's being I investigated 

Been involved in child abuse case were battery was charged that had nothing to do with broken bones. Combined with photo from January showing his arm in a cast I remain unconvinced, like a lot of things in this case I have no idea.

 

[Interseptopus]

Been involved in child abuse case were battery was charged that had nothing to do with broken bones. Combined with photo from January showing his arm in a cast I remain unconvinced, like a lot of things in this case I have no idea.

ah, that's what you meant. yes, the specifics regarding the broken bone are not substantiated. just the battery. which could be anything

 

[Interseptopus]

Diggs is a great player, but he wouldn't even come close to moving the needle enough for me to move Hill.

just saying what a respected calculator has dropped hills value as of last night. It dropped about 25%.

Someone who thinks Hill is done for may choose to move him for a player like Diggs to get something for nothing. I think it's a fair drop. in 2 days he could be worth nothing, or he could be back to where he was before. 

 

[cloppbeast]

Just offered Theilen for Hill + 2.06. That's a low ball right?

 

[Interseptopus]

Just offered Theilen for Hill + 2.06. That's a low ball right?

I am close to offering 1.3 or 1.7... Cant bring myself to right now

 

[fruity pebbles]

Just offered Theilen for Hill + 2.06. That's a low ball right?

Yeah. I try straight up.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I am close to offering 1.3 or 1.7... Cant bring myself to right now

I think 1.03 is around his current value.

 

[Interseptopus]

I think 1.03 is around his current value.

I would agree. I sent a verbal offer. If there was some kind of denial from anyone I would have it offered already but since there isnt I'm not sure I want to

 

[cloppbeast]

I am close to offering 1.3 or 1.7... Cant bring myself to right now

Worth a try. Lol

 

[cloppbeast]

I think 1.03 is around his current value.

Really? What was he before? 

 

[menobrown]

Offers I've received for Hill but not accepted:

Davante Adams/Josh Allen for Watson/Corey Davis and Hill

Julio and 1.11 for Hill and potentially high pick  #1 in 2020.

I'm not going to take those offers but been reading some stuff and combined with Hill's silence my worry is growing rapidly.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Really? What was he before? 

Double that imo.

 

[cloppbeast]

Offers I've received for Hill but not accepted:

Davante Adams/Josh Allen for Watson/Corey Davis and Hill

Julio and 1.11 for Hill and potentially high pick  #1 in 2020.

I'm not going to take those offers but been reading some stuff and combined with Hill's silence my worry is growing rapidly.

If you're in win now position, it would be hard to turn down Julio and a 1st.

 

[menobrown]

Double that imo.

Triple IMO

 

[fruity pebbles]

Offers I've received for Hill but not accepted:

Davante Adams/Josh Allen for Watson/Corey Davis and Hill

Julio and 1.11 for Hill and potentially high pick  #1 in 2020.

I'm not going to take those offers but been reading some stuff and combined with Hill's silence my worry is growing rapidly.

I wouldn’t take those either. That said I had Hill in multiple leagues and I took a mid 1st and Roquan Smith, LBers are worth a lot. Essentially two mid 1sts. Feel dirty but couldn’t risk losing that value across several leagues.

 

[menobrown]

If you're in win now position, it would be hard to turn down Julio and a 1st.

I'm a contender and was easy no.  I feel like if you are a contender now  the 2020 first is more fluid asset that can be used at anytime if I'm so inclined later.

I would however give up the youth of Hill for an older stud WR right now, just not the picks.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think 1.03 is around his current value.

I would reject 1.03 so fast if I owned hill

 

[Interseptopus]

Really? What was he before? 

12 hours before this news broke I pulled this offer:

Corey Davis, 1.3, 1.7, 2020 2nd for Hill, Ito Smith, Mark Walton, 2.3

ETA: based on my comversions with his owner this was short what he wanted  by: me adding james washington, me removing 2020 2nd, and him removing 2.3

 

[menobrown]

Some minor updates via tweet replies from KC Star sports editor Jeff Rosen. Not a lot but it's all I could find as he answered some tweets about his coverage in last hour.

Someone criticized him for reporting that Hill was under investigation instead of his investigation surrounding Hill's residence. Rosen insisted that Hill is under investigation personally.

Someone asked if there is more than is being reported. Rosen said yes and later added part of that is due to sensitive nature of the subject.

Rosen is not saying he is guilty or has any knowledge of his guilt but is adamant he is being personally investigated.

 

[Interseptopus]

yeah I had a feeling since a child is involved they are keeping it quiet. usually do 

 

[voiceofunreason]

I wouldn’t take those either. That said I had Hill in multiple leagues and I took a mid 1st and Roquan Smith, LBers are worth a lot. Essentially two mid 1sts. Feel dirty but couldn’t risk losing that value across several leagues.

I think that's a lot more than he's worth. I'd put him about the 1.07. 

 

[menobrown]

yeah I had a feeling since a child is involved they are keeping it quiet. usually do 

Yes and the the bad part of his replies was if, like me, you are holding out hope that it's just bad reporting to assume that Hill is being investigated when his name is not even on the report then his reply kind of killed that hope.

 

[matuski]

So that is why they overpaid so much on Sammy.

 

[Milkman]

Yeah this is getting worse by the hour. 

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I was offered Kamara and Gurley for Barkley and Hill, if that helps anyone

 

[menobrown]

I'm one of the most age averse dynasty players you will find.  Hate paying youth for older players.

I posted a trade offer earlier I've worked out to basically Hill, my 2020#1 which project very late(i'd be favorite for sure), a 2020#1 I picked up with 1-8 kind of potential and I'd get back AB and Julio. I'd be giving up 3 young pieces for two players with 2-3 year windows. I hate it and I told the guy I needed an hour or two to decide but more I read on this the more I think Hill is going down. And even saying that I'd be ok with it if he sat out 2019 and returned without the magic arm of Mahomes throwing to him but if he really broke his kids arm I'm just not so sure he does come back.

Can't stand that it's come to this and not asking for trade advice either, just trying to post offers/trades so people get an idea of his current value movement to make your decisions in your leagues.

 

[Anarchy99]

One bit of possible good news, at least odds in his favor.  In Kansas child abuse/neglect is investigated by Kansas Dept. of Children and Families and based on a multi year report of over 30,000 cases the percentage of times they do not affirm any child abuse/neglect is right around 90%.

The NFL has shown any number of times that it will act how it sees fit regardless of what the legal system does. Other players were not charged with crimes yet received suspensions. Other players were cleared of charges or league investigations recommended no discipline yet suspensions were handed out anyway (Zeke says hi). Bottom line, the league does what the league wants. If there is a groundswell of emotion to suspend Hill and there is some sort of evidence that he somehow was involved, the odds are pretty good that he would end up on the commissioner's exempt list while they sorted things out.

That being said, none of us here have any idea what happened and it's always advisable to let these things play out rather than guess or react to information that may or may not be factual.

 

[menobrown]

The NFL has shown any number of times that it will act how it sees fit regardless of what the legal system does.

Sure but this is not so simple as that because the most the league would do without charges brought against Hill is 6 games. I don't give a hoot about 6 games.

I care about fact Chiefs would cut him if he's charged or they believe he did it and secondly  and the biggest thing here is I care if he would ever get back in the league.

In short I don't care about NFL suspension right now. In fact if right now you told me he is getting a 6 game suspension and then he'll return as a Chief and all is well I'd consider it a major victory and end all trade talks that involve me sending him away.

 

[Atomic Punk]

Guys with Hill's history make me nervous and I get more nervous with this kind of news. I just traded him for Kirk, DJ Moore and Herndon. Feels light but I'm  not willing to take the chance this time.

 

[ghostguy123]

if you wouldn't let Tyreek date your daughter then why is he on your fantasy team? 



Just trying to save him some typing time

Love it

 

[ghostguy123]

Like I said....I get it....thats your call and the way you choose to make judgements....and thats fine

Please answer the questions

 

[ghostguy123]

His silence is a little deafening. Lawyer, agent, team or not. If I was being falsely accused of abusing my son, I'd be telling from the treetops that it didn't happen

I have never bought into this line of thinking.  Lot of roof top shouters who ended up guilty.

 

[menobrown]

I have never bought into this line of thinking.  Lot of roof top shouters who ended up guilty.

Yes but how many high profile innocent people are stone cold silent.

 

[Anarchy99]

Sure but this is not so simple as that because the most the league would do without charges brought against Hill is 6 games. I don't give a hoot about 6 games.

I care about fact Chiefs would cut him if he's charged or they believe he did it and secondly  and the biggest thing here is I care if he would ever get back in the league.

In short I don't care about NFL suspension right now. In fact if right now you told me he is getting a 6 game suspension and then he'll return as a Chief and all is well I'd consider it a major victory and end all trade talks that involve me sending him away.

Unlikely anyone would get a lifetime ban. It would become a legal battle at that point. More likely outcome would be going on the excempt list indefinitely while they sort things out, then getting suspended, then getting released, and up to other teams if they want to pick him up or if he gets a cold shoulder across the league. Obviously it depends what the investigation reveals and how Hill looks.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Yeah this is getting worse by the hour. 

based on what?

 

[menobrown]

Unlikely anyone would get a lifetime ban. It would become a legal battle at that point. More likely outcome would be going on the excempt list indefinitely while they sort things out, then getting suspended, then getting released, and up to other teams if they want to pick him up or if he gets a cold shoulder across the league. Obviously it depends what the investigation reveals and how Hill looks.

Of course he won't get a lifetime ban, even if guilty.

I can't stress enough I don't really care what the league decides to do, that is close to a zero concern for me because that's all short term stuff. I care what the Chiefs will do and if another team would give him a chance ever again once his suspension was over. If he broke his kids arm, considering it's his second offense, I'm not sure he gets back in the league again and that would be my major concern.

He's great with Mahomes, he was good with WR killer Alex Smith so I even if Chiefs cut him he's still be valuable. It's the total NFL blackball that has me worried about his value.

And it should go without saying but everything I just said is if he is guilty.

 

[Milkman]

based on what?

Based on no statement from Tyreek. He needs to come out and say he's innocent. At least that's what an innocent person would do. 

 

[skinfanjon]

I just offered up Woods for him on my rebuild team.  Then I got scared and pulled it back haha.  Just to add the the value discussion.

 

[barackdhouse]

One bit of possible good news, at least odds in his favor.  In Kansas child abuse/neglect is investigated by Kansas Dept. of Children and Families and based on a multi year report of over 30,000 cases the percentage of times they do not affirm any child abuse/neglect is right around 90%.

Just trying to clarify here. IDK which side of the state line the residence is on, but KC is in Missouri. I'm sure you thought of that but I had to ask. 

Got an offer of Mike Williams, James Washington and 2.08 for Hill. About to look at what possible counters are even a thought to me. But am very tempted to bail on Hill for whatever I can get in the next hour or two.

 

[menobrown]

Based on no statement from Tyreek. He needs to come out and say he's innocent. At least that's what an innocent person would do. 

To be fair it's also what guilty people do which in current society really makes you look guilty  when you say nothing because you won't even offer a denial a guilty person would do. It's messed up. Putting out a statement would not have made me think he was in the clear so much as not putting one out makes me concerned. I think we expect those guilty or innocent to deny so it makes us really alarmed when someone won't even make what is usually the first line of defense in court of public opinion.

 

[menobrown]

Just trying to clarify here. IDK which side of the state line the residence is on, but KC is in Missouri. I'm sure you thought of that but I had to ask. 

I'll be totally honest. I mess up what state KC is in all the time and have even been their multiple times which makes it even worse but in this case the city is Overland Park.