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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (8 Viewers)

Yeah. Scroll down to her tweets. First was March 13th saying Tyreek broke his sons arm. 
she says the break happened in February...very odd, so if true that means the cops/child services whatever were at the house in early march and again last week.....then again... who knows what the baby mamma says to godfather grandma etc....about it....this Meredith robinson….

 
I was offered this trade and turned it down.  He called it a discount.

Hill for Damien Williams, Anthony Miller, 1.5, and 2.01.  As things are now I don't think I would take Hill for the 1.5 straight up.

 
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I was offered this trade and turned it down.  He called it a discount.

Hill for Damien Williams, Anthony Miller, 1.5, and 2.01.  As things are now I don't think I would take the Hill for the 1.5 straight up.
sounds like the guy bit off too much. 

if I was offered hill for 2.1 I'd take it. not sure I'd do any higher

 
Does one have more strict laws than the other?  Sounds like this was on the Kansas side? 
Yeah, different laws and policies.  The ones I am more familiar with would be how child services policy can greatly impact investigations.  Some states can't remove children, they can only make recommendations to the court. While other states can remove children and then the court system rules whether that was necessary.

When speaking about jurisdiction there is a big problem with Indiana and Ohio, especially since they border each other.  Indiana's jurisdiction for child abuse/neglect is where the alleged incident took place.  Ohio's jurisdiction is where the family is currently living.  So if a person beats their kid in Ohio and then moves to Indiana both would say they can't investigate it.  This has happened multiple times to me.

I tried to look at Kansas Child welfare policies and stumbled across  5000 page document, but don't really want to sift through it since I wasn't even sure I found the right document. I may try again and see if I turn up what I am looking for.

http://www.dcf.ks.gov/services/PPS/Documents/PPM_Forms/Appendices/Appendix_1A.pdf

 
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With what we know now what do you think is fair compensation for Hill in PPR dynasty leagues?
Some people are throwing around 2nd round picks which is far too low imo. There has to be a balance with risk and reward. For a 2nd I’d rather lose him completely cause the reward isn’t that great. Flip side some owners want 90% of his previous value which I think is more than he’ll be worth even if completely cleared. He’ll still have a knucklehead factor in his value going forward imo. I’d say 50% of his prior value is fair. Somebody threw out Diggs as a comp and I’d say that’s prolly close. I’m risk adverse so for me a bit less than that. 

 
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Some people are throwing around 2nd round picks which is far too low imo. There has to be a balance with risk and reward. For a 2nd I’d rather lose him completely cause the reward isn’t that great. Flip side some owners want 90% of his previous value which I think is more than he’ll be worth even if completely cleared. He’ll still have a knucklehead factor in his value going forward imo. I’d say 50% of his prior value going forward. Somebody through out Diggs as a comp and I’d say that’s prolly close. I’m risk adverse so for me a bit less than that. 
If you were trading for him what's the highest pick you would give?  Conversely, if you were trading him, what is the lowest pick you would take?

 
Some people are throwing around 2nd round picks which is far too low imo. There has to be a balance with risk and reward. For a 2nd I’d rather lose him completely cause the reward isn’t that great. Flip side some owners want 90% of his previous value which I think is more than he’ll be worth even if completely cleared. He’ll still have a knucklehead factor in his value going forward imo. I’d say 50% of his prior value is fair. Somebody threw out Diggs as a comp and I’d say that’s prolly close. I’m risk adverse so for me a bit less than that. 
Diggs is way too much imo. I’m looking at Lockett right now.

edit-just traded him and a 2nd next year for Lockett. There’s return yards but obviously it’s pretty gross. I just don’t think this ends well and I’m in a win now situation. I’d rather take what I can get now.

 
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Highest pick I’d give is probably the 1.05. To trade him I’d need the 1.03 or better I think.
I don't think I would give the 1.5 for him at this point and if you could get the 1.03 for him, that would be a boom IMO.  I think his value is sinking faster than people want to admit.

 
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With what we know now what do you think is fair compensation for Hill in PPR dynasty leagues?
What are the odds he's out of the league completely and never plays another down?  

What are the odds that he misses time again and again like Josh gordon?  Or some similar bad things (released by KC, or gets busted for something else later, etc) 

What are the odds he's suspended for some or all of a season, but comes back as a wr1?

What are the odds that he is exonerated in this investigation and it was all just a mistake or vicious rumor? 

Take all that and compare it with what he's worth if he does keep playing.  In some leagues that's higher than others - how wr friendly is your league? 

Now add in his diminished trade value.  How long until you think it rebounds to the point you could flip him for a big time profit if things work out reasonably well for him?  What kind of exit strategy do you have for a knucklehead with elite skills? 

And how does he fit in for the acquiring team? What does the ideal buyer look like, and how do you match that up with seller need? 

I think a lot of that is league dependent, but i'd say he's worth a low end wr1/ high end wr2 right now. If i was rebuilding and owned my own 2020 first i would be tempted to offer a guy like Julio for him in the hopes that hill sits out most of the year, i get a young stud wr next year and my 2020 first is early enough to get one of the top backs coming out next year.  I think that's a potential win win.

 
At Lockett I think most Hill owners would rather just hold because they’re not gonna gain a lot. Has to be a balance. I mean before this Hill was worth two Diggs atleast.
This. 

His true value is below what Hill owners should trade. If I had him and I could get a 1st I'd strongly consider it. If I could get Diggs I'm all over it. Lockett... yeah I'd rather hold and hope

 
Think there’s further ramifications than that though. If he’s suspended that long it means he did break his arm. Chiefs probably cut him and a good chance he’s blackballed from the NFL imo.
There is also the possibility nothing comes of this and you just got a stud for 1/4 his value

 
Think there’s further ramifications than that though. If he’s suspended that long it means he did break his arm. Chiefs probably cut him and a good chance he’s blackballed from the NFL imo.
only people who cant play anymore get blackballed....ray rice and Kaep…...Tyreek can play and he will get another chance

 
There is also the possibility nothing comes of this and you just got a stud for 1/4 his value
If I had an excess of assets and was already a contender I might make a move for him, but if I was a rebuilding team, and especially close to building a contender, I don't think I would trade for him.

 
I would be hesitant to take this persons social media posting as 100% gospel truth. 
I’m not. I think he’s still worth more than a single mid 1st. It would probably take two mids for me to consider dealing him. About half his prior value. At that point I think it depends whether you’re risk adverse or a risk taker

 
Also, let's not assume this women is on the up & up.

We don't know enough yet.
I’m not assuming but she is who she says she is and her husband is who she says he is. They are close to the situation and she reported on this days before it came out so she obviously knows something. Question I guess is whether the info she was given is true.

 
He has some clear anger management issues. That's not an assumption. It basically comes from someone who knows them personally- this Meredith Robinson
yeah this women better be careful, If Im Tyreek and she is posting like that about me on the innernet?  especially if its false would make me kind of upset..... who knows what the real relationship between the former Mrs Jeff Robinson and Tyreek and his fiancée  is? 

 
I would be hesitant to take this persons social media posting as 100% gospel truth. 
Absolutely.

And let's not forget in all of this possible money driven agenda's.  I don't think we can overlook the coincidence that the the first report was dated March 5th and was within about an hour of when Rapaport said Hill was in contract talks with the Chiefs to make him potentially the highest paid WR in the game. Within an hour, some say within 20 minutes,  of Rapaport making that report the police paid Hill's house their initial visit. That is one hell of a coincidence.

 
Absolutely.

And let's not forget in all of this possible money driven agenda's.  I don't think we can overlook the coincidence that the the first report was dated March 5th and was within about an hour of when Rapaport said Hill was in contract talks with the Chiefs to make him potentially the highest paid WR in the game. Within an hour, some say within 20 minutes,  of Rapaport making that report the police paid Hill's house their initial visit. That is one hell of a coincidence.
Lot of conspiracy theories here. So someone had inside knowledge of Hill getting a contract, phoned the police, made up some fake testimony, etc. Come on man.

 
Lot of conspiracy theories here. So someone had inside knowledge of Hill getting a contract, phoned the police, made up some fake testimony, etc. Come on man.
It was within 20 minutes to an hour of that report of him being the highest paid WR so yes I think all of that is possible. Maybe someone is jealous, maybe it's not fake testimony but someone was sitting on the info and seeing him about to land that contract was more then they could stand, maybe someone called him before the police and asked for some money. Was someone on Facebook claiming to be his cousin who lives in same area he grew up saying "she is trying to ruin his career". A lot of stuff we are all trying to piece together and it behooves us to try and figure this out before it's to late to deal or to late to buy him cheap. You believe what you want. I think the timing should not be ignored.

 
Well I sold him low last night and don't feel great about it. And I'm not rooting for him to get busted so that my deal looks better. But I feel it's an "everybody" loses situation. I own him in one other spot and will ride this thing out on that roster. But ultimately I think he is cooked.

 
What would you give as far as picks?
I just offered 1.12 for him but it felt so insulting to offer I had to write a note saying I'm just doing my due diligence and if you don't like this offer check back with me one way or another once the dust settles. For me if today they announced charges were being pursued, the Chiefs cut and we found out he was suspended for 2019 and would return in 2020 with a new teams I'd still pay 1.12 and easily.

 
Well I sold him low last night and don't feel great about it. And I'm not rooting for him to get busted so that my deal looks better. But I feel it's an "everybody" loses situation. I own him in one other spot and will ride this thing out on that roster. But ultimately I think he is cooked.
Pretty much how I feel about it. What did you sell him for? I got a mid 1st and Roquan Smith, who’s basically worth another mid 1st in this league. Like you I don’t feel great about it.

 

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