WSL Rookie Trends (1 Viewer)

[jeaton6]

I was really surprised to see Rookies fly off the board so early in the WSL's. It seemed a lot earlier than last year so I thought I'd go back and look at 2013 WSL Rookie ADP to see if this was the case or not.

From my calculations here's the 2014 average Rookie ADP for each WSL:

WSL 1: 13.08 (8th pick of 13th round)

WSL 2: 11.16 (16th pick of 11th round)

2014 Simple Avg: 12.12

2013 average Rookie ADP:

WSL 1: 16.05

WSL 2: 13.10

WSL 3: 15.14

2013 Simple Avg: 15.04

So in 2014 the Avg rookie pick went 2.5 rounds earlier than in 2013. Additionally in 2014 22 rookies were picked on avg vs 19 in 2013. I know we had some successful rooks last year but outside of the top 5-7 last year there was very little production and I find it hard to believe that this class will produce RBs like we saw last year in year 1. Seems like a lot of reaches in the rooks to me overall.

 

[BroadwayG]

uggguh uughguughhhghghghhhgh raaaaaahhgh aarrragghuuhw uughghhhgh

oops you said rookie with an r

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

this is a pretty good rookie class with regards to depth.

the unique thing is that there are about 6 rookies RBs making up the top tier, and every expert and so-called FBG board dyno expert has a differing opinion on them.

Add to that a top 3 Rookie TEs, I have never seen rookie TEs go that high in these

The rookie WR class has a nice top3, then another set of guys that may or may not contribute right away

Nailing a good rookie in these can be a huge advantage. one of my survivor championship was nailing Chris johnson in his rookie season, did wonders

However, as you point out, overpaying for them can be a trap, as we know not all rookies work out

 

[jeaton6]

this is a pretty good rookie class with regards to depth.

the unique thing is that there are about 6 rookies RBs making up the top tier, and every expert and so-called FBG board dyno expert has a differing opinion on them.

Add to that a top 3 Rookie TEs, I have never seen rookie TEs go that high in these

The rookie WR class has a nice top3, then another set of guys that may or may not contribute right away

Nailing a good rookie in these can be a huge advantage. one of my survivor championship was nailing Chris johnson in his rookie season, did wonders

However, as you point out, overpaying for them can be a trap, as we know not all rookies work out

Right and it's not to say some won't pan out but it seems like most are lottery tickets this early on before we see where thy are drafted. Last year in wsl2 I got Levon bell at 20.10 by the time the ssls rolled around he was a 5/6th rounder but at the time most didn't have him pegged as a top 3 rookie RB in the draft. Deandre Hopkins and Austin were 18-20th round picks in wsls and I doubt most would say the majority of the WRs in this class are any more talented than them. Will be interesting to see where rookie adp moves in the PDSLs and BBAPL.

 

[FUBAR]

Just speaking for myself, in redrafts I only take rookies in two scenarios. First is the rare chance that i've seen the kid play enough to feel really confident that he is a value at that pick. The other is the hail mary / desperation play where i don't know what else to do.

 

[Sinrman]

I think the extra picks in WSL make it easier to reach on some rookies.

 

[Bamac]

I think the extra picks in WSL make it easier to reach on some rookies.

Plus the fact that many vets' situations are up in the air. For instance, I drafted Bridgewater as QB26(ish) because the only vet QB on the board with a solid situation was Locker. If the Raiders sign Schaub to a decent deal, I probably wouldn't make the same pick in PDSL.

 

[FUBAR]

Two good points.

Just my opinion of course, but i think Locker's upside is greater this year than bridge's even if he lands in houston.

 

[jeaton6]

I think the extra picks in WSL make it easier to reach on some rookies.

True but my concern with taking more than one is you have a high bust likelyhood. If you take 1 rook RB and 1 WR you are very likely to pull a zero every single week which is really tough to recover from once the bye weeks and inevitable injuries occur. Unless of course you get one of the few guys who contribute every week.

 

[BassNBrew]

Personally I think the rookie deal was out of control this year. Too much of a lottery for me. I'll stick with guys like Tolbert late who will out produce 80% of the rookies. Even the few guys who did hit started off so slow that you might not have been around to reap their production.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

Personally I think the rookie deal was out of control this year. Too much of a lottery for me. I'll stick with guys like Tolbert late who will out produce 80% of the rookies. Even the few guys who did hit started off so slow that you might not have been around to reap their production.