Yahoo! projections (1 Viewer)

[WOW6616]

Just wanted to rant a little bit about the horrible job that Yahoo! does in their projections of what players will do for the next week and for the year. I swear a demented old circus monkey could do a better job of projected than whoever they currently have doing it they have the big name defenders like Yeremiah Bell (coming off a 13 point game) Patrick Willis (something is definitely wrong with him), and Karlos Dansby (who's been a major bust thus far) pretty consistently projected for 40 points or more per week in my point structure (4 points per tackle) and yet lesser know players who have had a very solid start of the year like LaRon Landry, Patrick Chung, and Lawrence Timmons (a freakin' beast) projected for between 15 and 25 points it's ridiculous I want to know who does these projections and then I want to slap them.

 

[Irish Chaos]

cant comment on idp but their p[rojections usually dont make sense to me...CJ with 22+ every week seems a bit much to me...

 

[stuckinthemuck]

If fantasypros.com is to be believed, Andy Behrens at Yahoo outranks Sigmund Bloom and David Dodds. Yahoo's staff composite is lower than the FBG guys though.

 

[Warrior]

IDP is a crapshoot. Nobody's projections are any good.

 

[Squintz82]

Their projections have always been awful. Brandon Lloyd hasn't had a projection over 10 points at all this season (.5 PPR), and they give Welker 14-16 weekly.

 

[DiStefano]

Yahoo is not too bad on offensive players. On defensive players, they haven't a clue.

 

[NinerFan49]

I wouldn't be surprised if yahoo projections are all done entirely (or mostly) by algorithms... I've found the FBG projections to be far better this season.

 

[grateful zed]

all prejections suck.

they just give you guys to put on your radar for your own analysis.

 

[Insein]

Projections in general are a crap shoot but Yahoo has the worst presentation out of all of them. Way off the mark and either faulty or zero logic behind it. Plus I love its default to sort the free agents by their preseason draft ranking instead of what they have done for the year.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I would bet all their projections are computer generated and probably are still basing some off last year's stats.

 

[Jayrod]

Their projections have always been awful. Brandon Lloyd hasn't had a projection over 10 points at all this season (.5 PPR), and they give Welker 14-16 weekly.

They have really been down on Santana Moss all year as well. I don't know about week 1, but they were way under on 4 of the last 5 games on him. This week, they don't even have him in double digits in PPR. Thanks to FBG's projections, I've started him every week since week 2 and been better off for it.

 

[Dismattle]

I believe the IDP projections are improved from last yr. Id also speculate that with some teams playing erratically, that its not bad at all.

 

[NinerFan49]

I believe the IDP projections are improved from last yr. Id also speculate that with some teams playing erratically, that its not bad at all.

After Desmond Bishop put up monster stats in week 5, when he won an inside LB job after Nick Barnett was injured, yahoo's projections for him did not reflect that change for week 6 (when he again put up great stats) and they continue to not reflect that change in their projections for week 7.

 

[RushHour]

I don't know about the others, but the IDP prediction columns are trash. I remember last week, in one of the FBG articles, the Houston pass rush matchup vs KC was tagged as one to avoid, while Yahoo claimed that Mario Williams had an excellent matchup (they really just listed all the consensus top DEs from before the season as having good matchups). I know which opinion I trust!

 

[Dismattle]

I believe the IDP projections are improved from last yr. Id also speculate that with some teams playing erratically, that its not bad at all.

After Desmond Bishop put up monster stats in week 5, when he won an inside LB job after Nick Barnett was injured, yahoo's projections for him did not reflect that change for week 6 (when he again put up great stats) and they continue to not reflect that change in their projections for week 7.

I believe thats a valid point. I wouldnt begin to address a stat projection for B. Chillar. In my league hes supposed to be @ 7.20 (1st game of the yr he had 6 Solo's) I could almost see Chillar doubling his predetermined projection (sack or AP FF) but D. Bishop is also projected low in my league (1.92, tackle is 1.5). I imagine it comes down to how many nickle looks etc. Im just glad I dont have AJ on my team (1st game of the yr one Solo)

 

[munygon2]

Yahoo has had Jared Allen listed with the top projected points for a DL every week and he has yet to do anything. It's very deceiving because it makes you feel like starting someone who is projected to get dd points and they consistently put up nothing. I pretty much have to ignore them and go with what I've seen in the games so far and reading up on here.

 

[GregR_2]

So you're saying that a set of free, publicly supplied projections, likely used by a lot of your opponents who don't know enough to make good decisions themselves, are of poor quality.

This is a bad thing how?

 

[LittlePhatty]

I really think all projections are pretty much useless anyway. Yahoo's are worse than most because they don't completely re-evaluate players during the season like they should. They just take their pre-season projections and shave off some points if the player is under-performing, instead of looking at how that player is being used in games and adjusting accordingly.

Instead of projections I prefer to look at writeups that talk about past performance/momentum plus weekly matchup.

 

[Sir Chadwick]

Yeah it's all trash. I've been watching Malcom Floyd's projections and they have stayed at around 6-7 pts in my ppr league all year. I think they started him at 5 or so. Even after his huge games and cementing the #1WR role w/ Rivers throwing him the ball, they still lowball him on projections. Ignore and research/read articles.

 

[azgroover]

Yahoo's DL and LB projections seem as good as could be expected. It's just too difficult to determine how many pass breakups and ints a DB will get. Player for player, their offensive projections are sketchy, but I often find my team hitting pretty close to their cumulative point outlook each week. Strange.

 

[grateful zed]

I love its default to sort the free agents by their preseason draft ranking instead of what they have done for the year.

So you're saying that a set of free, publicly supplied projections, likely used by a lot of your opponents who don't know enough to make good decisions themselves, are of poor quality.

i like their style.

 

[jdubs952]

My issues is the 'Evaluate Trade' makes it very hard to deal with less informed owners. For instance, I was trying to trade for Foster, but yahoo had him at over 20 pts for every game, so no trade (even a hypothetical, Andre Johnson, Best, Brees for Foster...all upgrades for the other team) still showed the other owner wasn't making out for the season.

 

[pittstownkiller]

So you're saying that a set of free, publicly supplied projections, likely used by a lot of your opponents who don't know enough to make good decisions themselves, are of poor quality.This is a bad thing how?

Being relatively new to yahoo and their projections I just assumed that everyone took them as worthless; You make a great point and I now see some real value here.

 

[nickel&dime]

If fantasypros.com is to be believed, Andy Behrens at Yahoo outranks Sigmund Bloom and David Dodds. Yahoo's staff composite is lower than the FBG guys though.

They're barely apart from each other accuracy score wise, so I doubt it's statistically significant yet. All those guys scored way better than SI.com though...which makes perfect sense to me!Yahoo's official site projections, which is what I think this thread is about, has to be done from some stupid computer generated thing. There's no other way to explain how BAD some of the crap is. I've completely stopped sorting by projected fantasy points for a given week, because I'm always shocked at who comes up at the top. If you can believe it, they're actually giving trade advice based off of these horrible projections too! If you use Yahoo, you know what I'm talking about (the "evaluate this trade" button).

In terms of "believing" fantasypros, their methodology is pretty interesting. Totally different from the way the FFLibrarian does her yearly draft rankings study. Seems pretty logical to me, but I only gave it a quick read. http://www.fantasypros.com/about/faq/accuracy-methodology/

 

[glong989]

My issues is the 'Evaluate Trade' makes it very hard to deal with less informed owners. For instance, I was trying to trade for Foster, but yahoo had him at over 20 pts for every game, so no trade (even a hypothetical, Andre Johnson, Best, Brees for Foster...all upgrades for the other team) still showed the other owner wasn't making out for the season.

Yes. I was trying to get Foster in both of my leagues but no matter what I came up with the owner rejected it because it always shows him losing points since he gets 25 regularly