You Down With YPP? (1 Viewer)

[Fensalk]

I'm crunching some numbers on YPP, or yards per point (and yards allowed per point)

I went back and calculated the YAPP for every playoff team from the last 12 years (1999-2010). Some early findings.

1. The team with the best YAPP in their conference tournament won their conference 10/24 times. The other 14 went to the 2nd to 6th ranked teams.

2. 18/24 conference champs were ranked third or higher in YAPP in their conference tournament.

3. 6/12 super bowl champs had the best YAPP in the NFL playoffs. Most recently it was the Packers last year.

4. Teams with a franchise QB that had the best YAPP in their conference tournament won their conference 6/8 times, and won the Super Bowl 5 times. (last year, Roethlisberger faced Rodgers and one of them had to lose).

5. Teams with a franchise QB that had the best YAPP in the NFL playoffs won the super bowl 2/3 times.

 

[Fensalk]

New England is going to finish #1 in YAPP in the AFC playoffs this year (6182 yards allowed / 321 points allowed = 19.26 YAPP), and they have a franchise QB. 6 of the last 8 times that has happened, that team won their conference. And that team went on to win the Super Bowl every single time except last year, when both conference champs met these criteria so one of them had to lose.

 

[Fensalk]

San Francisco will finish #1 in YAPP in the NFC playoffs, but they do not have a franchise QB. Such teams have won their conference only 4/16 times. They have won the Super Bowl 2/4 times.

 

[Polar Dude]

Yeah, you know me.

 

[ivnabru]

Yeah, you know me.

Who's down with YPP? Don't the Packers have a good YPP? I thought they were beside the Pats in all defensive indicators except INTs?

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Yeah, you know me.

 

[Fensalk]

Yeah, you know me.

Who's down with YPP? Don't the Packers have a good YPP? I thought they were beside the Pats in all defensive indicators except INTs?

Numbers for all teams still alive prior to week 17:AFCnwe 19.26pit 18.84ten 17.95bal 17.14hou 16.51cin 15.76oak 14.53den 14.21nyj 13.90NFCsfo 22.88 gnb 18.90nor 17.37dal 15.99det 15.59atl 15.47nyg 14.82

 

[Fensalk]

As I write this shortly before halftime of the Patriots-Bills game, the Patriots have fallen all the way down to 18.87, only 0.03 points ahead of the Steelers. A bad loss by the Patriots today, a loss by the Ravens, and a strong win by the Steelers could give the Steelers the #1 seed and the top YAPP ranking in the AFC playoffs.

 

[Fensalk]

New England is going to finish #1 in YAPP in the AFC playoffs this year (6182 yards allowed / 321 points allowed = 19.26 YAPP), and they have a franchise QB. 6 of the last 8 times that has happened, that team won their conference. And that team went on to win the Super Bowl every single time except last year, when both conference champs met these criteria so one of them had to lose.

Now that the regular season is over, the Patriots have indeed finished with the best YAPP in the AFC playoffs. Going with the fact that 6/8 times this has happened, that team has won their conference, I picked the Patriots to win the AFC. The NFC is more muddled. The 49ers have the best YAPP, but no franchise QB. I defaulted to the "hottest" team entering the playoffs, which is the Saints in my opinion, but its close between them and the Packers.I pick Patriots over Saints in Super Bowl 46, as 5/6 times when a team that has the #1 YAPP in their conference plus a frnachise QB reaches the Super Bowl, they win it.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here are this year's final results. I will look in more detail at how other year's have fared, but I already don't like the "franchise QB" proviso as esessentially a subjective spin on the worth of the metric.

San Francisco 49ers	21.5	1New England Patriots	19.2	2Pittsburgh Steelers	19.1	3Green Bay Packers	18.3	4New Orleans Saints	17.4	7Baltimore Ravens	17.4	8Houston Texans		16.4	12Cincinnati Bengals	15.7	17Atlanta Falcons		15.3	18Detroit Lions		15.2	20New York Giants		15.1	21Denver Broncos		14.7	24

 

[David Yudkin]

Going back the past 5 years, here were the teams in the SB and how they ranked in YPP . . .

2010 GB 20.6 1 PIT 19.1 22009 NO 16.8 9 IND 17.7 52008 PIT 17.1 4 ARI 12.5 322007 NYG 13.9 24 NE 16.8 62006 IND 14.8 23 CHI 18.5 3
Can't say that that really shows much in terms of YPP as a good predictor of who makes the SB or who would win it . . .

 

[Fensalk]

Here are this year's final results. I will look in more detail at how other year's have fared, but I already don't like the "franchise QB" proviso as esessentially a subjective spin on the worth of the metric.

Being a subjective metric is a valid criticism. Its still a work in progress. I like YAPP better when pairing it with franchise QB than I did by itself. Maybe when I have time I dig around for better statistics to pair it with.

 

[Fensalk]

Updated after Wild Card Weekend:

AFC

nwe 19.26

pit 18.84

bal 17.14

hou 16.51

cin 15.76

den 14.21

NFC

sfo 22.88

gnb 18.90

nor 17.37

det 15.59

atl 15.47

nyg 14.82

 

[Fensalk]

The only franchise QB left alive in the AFC is Tom Brady. Its up to Flacco, Yates, or Tebow to beat him.

 

[Fensalk]

Updated after Divisional Weekend:

AFC

nwe 19.26

pit 18.84

bal 17.14

hou 16.51

cin 15.76

den 14.21

NFC

sfo 22.88

gnb 18.90

nor 17.37

det 15.59

atl 15.47

nyg 14.82

 

[Fensalk]

6/12 teams that had the best YAPP in the NFL playoffs won the super bowl, over the past 12 years. If the 49ers win the super bowl, that'll make it 7/13. Teams with the best YAPP in their conference that also had a franchise QB won their conference 6/8 times in the past 12 years. If the Patriots win next weekend, that'll make it 7/9.

 

[Fensalk]

With the Patriots punching their ticket to Super Bowl 46, teams with the best YAPP in their conference tournament with a franchise QB have now won their conference 7/9 times over the past 12 years. The previous 6 Super Bowl teams went 5-1 in the Super Bowl, the only loss being to one of the 5 winners (Steelers to Packers in 2010).

 

[Anarchy99]

With the Patriots punching their ticket to Super Bowl 46, teams with a franchise QB have now won their conference 7/9 times over the past 12 years. The previous 6 Super Bowl teams went 5-1 in the Super Bowl.

Fixed.

 

[Fensalk]

Updated with the matchup now known for Super Bowl 46:

AFC

nwe 19.26

pit 18.84

bal 17.14

hou 16.51

cin 15.76

den 14.21

NFC

sfo 22.88

gnb 18.90

nor 17.37

det 15.59

atl 15.47

nyg 14.82

 

[Fensalk]

With the Patriots punching their ticket to Super Bowl 46, teams with a franchise QB have now won their conference 7/9 times over the past 12 years. The previous 6 Super Bowl teams went 5-1 in the Super Bowl.

Fixed.

The fix doesn't make sense.

 

[Fensalk]

Teams with the best YAPP in the NFL playoffs now drop to 6 Super Bowl titles in the last 13 years with the 49ers loss.

 

[Anarchy99]

With the Patriots punching their ticket to Super Bowl 46, teams with a franchise QB have now won their conference 7/9 times over the past 12 years. The previous 6 Super Bowl teams went 5-1 in the Super Bowl.

Fixed.

The fix doesn't make sense.

Teams with franchise QBs go to and win Super Bowls.

 

[Fensalk]

With the Patriots punching their ticket to Super Bowl 46, teams with a franchise QB have now won their conference 7/9 times over the past 12 years. The previous 6 Super Bowl teams went 5-1 in the Super Bowl.

Fixed.

The fix doesn't make sense.

Teams with franchise QBs go to and win Super Bowls.

I'm still not sure what you mean. I count 9 teams with franchise QBs reaching the Super Bowl in the past 6 years, not 12. I'm talking about teams not only with a franchise QB, but also with the best YAPP in their conference playoffs.

 

[I was in the pool]

Where do we stand this year?

 

[DoubleG]

Where do we stand this year?

Umm..no offense to the OP, but did you see David Yudkin's post? I don't think YPP is a very good indicator.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

i wanted to be cool and come in here and type another line from the song....but sitting here "you down with opp" and "yeah you know me" are the only words can actually say with 100% certainity were in the song.....the rest is a just a blur of hand raising and waving while acting like I knew what the hell I was saying as a youngster...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

BREAKING NEWS: teams that score fast and often tend to win more than teams that don't.

 

[DoubleG]

Quick one liners aside, I think the issue from a YPP (or defensively, YAPP) is the fact that yards are, in large part, meaningless as they mean close to nothing in terms of final score.

Here are some examples of my point:

High YPP offenses can by "big play" offenses - or they could be offenses that are trailing a lot and don't have the luxury of grinding out drives. They also could be teams that don't have much of a running game. They might also be an offense that has issues in the red zone, so they rack up yards, but few TDs.

Low YPP could be poor offenses...or they could be offenses that are efficient in the short passing game and running game that extend drives and control the clock. They could also be offenses on teams that have good special teams so they're drives aren't as long.

High YAPP defenses could be bad defenses....or teams that are good at stopping the run, but susceptable to the pass. They could also be teams that are often playing with a lead. They could also be a "bend but don't break" defense that gives up a ton of yards, but few TDs.

Low YAPP defenses could be good defenses. Or they might be defenses whose offensive counter parts don't put many points - so opposing teams play more conservatively, knowing they can win by running the ball. They also could be a defense that is easily run against, so while teams might not be hitting 40 yards passes, they could be grinding out 7-8 yard runs every play. Low YAPP could also be a function of poor special teams - opponenets drives dont have to go nearly as far.

The two major issues with YPP or YAPP is that they don't account for special teams at all - which might not only be an issue, but a factor. The second is that yards is not automatically equate to points. An offense that drives from the opposing 40 to the 10 then settles for a FG would have the same YPP as an offense that drives from their own 40 and scores a TD. I know which one I'd rather have.