Your one most overrated player and one most underrated player (1 Viewer)

[MacGruber]

Overrated: Maurice Jones-Drew - Late first rounder already dealing with knee issue, Jennings looming, on a team seemingly going backwards this season.

Underrated: Willis McGahee - Opportunity for big role with new coach who loves to run, behind starter that organization soured on after last season.

 

[butcher boy]

Overrated: Arian Foster. I dont think the stars line up for him again this year.

Underrated: Jason Campbell. Darren McFadden is going to open up the passing game.

 

[griff321]

Over: Mark Ingram- People and rookies. When will we learn? I used to have the sickness as well, but burned my hand on the stove one too many times.

Under: Percy Harvin.- Two reasons: I don't think he's ever gone seven months in his entire life without a migraine and in his first two years in the league I don't think he's ever had a full week of practice. I piss my pants in excitement just thinking of the possibilities in a PPR format.

 

[FavreCo]

Underrated: Beanie Wells (I hear ya laughing). Warner allowed him more room to run. QB's sucked last year and he had an injury to his leg. Kolb, Fitz, Heap will give him room once again.

Overrated: MJD. He got tons of wear on the tires, the team sucks and has no passing game.

 

[eaglezzz]

Overrated = G. Jennings WR -- with Jones resigning Nelson looking good, Grant back and Finley back there is going to be alot of 1-2 catch games for Jennings

Underrated = M. Ryan -- so many new additions and weapons to this offense - maybe on the verge of taking over for P. Manning as a top Fantasy QB

 

[Shutout]

Underrated: Beanie Wells (I hear ya laughing). Warner allowed him more room to run. QB's sucked last year and he had an injury to his leg. Kolb, Fitz, Heap will give him room once again.

Overrated: MJD. He got tons of wear on the tires, the team sucks and has no passing game.

No laughing here. I think Beanie is going to be a steal for teams this year.

 

[Shutout]

Overrated: Arian Foster. I dont think the stars line up for him again this year.

Why do "stars have to align"? Can't a young RB come into the league on a high scoring offense and lead the league in rushing and simply be considered an upcoming talent?I've said it before: the bias against foster (still, remarkably) is "name recognition", "pre-existing hype", and maybe just a pinch of "pride" from those who refused to take notice last year. The guy rocked last year. Had Ryan Matthews done the same thing, regardless of any other factor, people would be advertising him as the next Marshall Faulk. But because the media didn't annoint him as the chosen one BEFORE he ever stepped on an NFL football field, people can't just trust their eyes and the results. Always gotta be a "yeah, but...".

 

[Hoart Petterson]

over/Kevin Kolb/unproven, marginal talent behind horrid O-line.

under/Delone Carter/talented rookie one inevitable Addai injury from RB2 production

 

[Ilov80s]

Most underrated: Ryan Grant and Felix Jones. ADP on these guys is 20th-24th RB off the board and can be had in the late 5th or early 6th (of a 12 team league). I like their situations playing on what should be high scoring offenses. I can see either one flirting with being a top 12 RB. I think they are great picks for someone that goes WR heavy early in the draft.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is really underrated as well. ADP has him as the 19th QB off the board! Fitzpatrick started 13 games last year and was top 10 in ppg. He is the clear starter and while the Bills haven't done anything to upgrade the offense, they haven't done anything to harm it either.

Most overrated: Brandon Marshall. ADP as 13th WR off the board after a really disappointing 2010. I don't see any reason why we should expect the Dolphin game to have improved.

 

[LHUCKS]

Underrated: Beanie Wells (I hear ya laughing). Warner allowed him more room to run. QB's sucked last year and he had an injury to his leg. Kolb, Fitz, Heap will give him room once again.

Overrated: MJD. He got tons of wear on the tires, the team sucks and has no passing game.

No laughing here. I think Beanie is going to be a steal for teams this year.

 

[Heep]

Underrated: Beanie Wells (I hear ya laughing). Warner allowed him more room to run. QB's sucked last year and he had an injury to his leg. Kolb, Fitz, Heap will give him room once again.Overrated: MJD. He got tons of wear on the tires, the team sucks and has no passing game.

I love your Beanie pick. I think your MJD pick is off. Im not sure how he has tons of wear on his tires. He has (2) 300 touch seasons in his career (including college) and he is only 26 years old. With that reasoning, I would think you would be low on ADP as well as MIN doesn't look to have much of a passing game this year. Sure MJD had work done on his knee, but so did Foster. And for the post above saying Rashad Jennings is looming, Rashad is the same age as MJD. I really don't think Rashad is any threat and even if MJD sucks it up this year and/or blows out his knee, JAX would draft another RB. Rashad is garbage.

 

[Raider Nation]

Over: Mark Ingram- People and rookies. When will we learn? I used to have the sickness as well, but burned my hand on the stove one too many times.

If you were referring to rookie wide receivers, I could see it. But RB is the easiest position for a rookie to make a fantasy impact.

Good article by Michael Fabiano:

Rookies have made a much bigger statistical impact in recent seasons, as Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal (to name a few) have proven. While there has been a greater number of rookie quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends to help fantasy owners, running backs are still the most valuable of the first-year players.

In honor of those rookie backs who have led us to that coveted fantasy league championship, we've found the 10 greatest statistical seasons from first-year runners during the Super Bowl era. Players were rewarded one point for every 10 rushing and receiving yards and six points for touchdowns.

1. Eric Dickerson, L.A. Rams (341 points)

Dickerson rushed for a rookie record 1,808 yards and 18 touchdowns, caught 51 passes for 404 yards and scored another two touchdowns as a receiver out of the backfield in 1983. While he would never reach those receiving totals in a single season again, he did go on to rush for an NFL record 2,105 yards and 14 touchdowns in his second season.

2. Edgerrin James, Colts (316 points)

Fantasy footballers who took a chance on James in 1999 drafts were thrilled with the results. He rushed for 1,553 yards and 13 touchdowns, hauled in 62 passes for 586 yards and scored four times as a receiver. He would go on to become a fantasy superstar, rushing for 1,000-plus yards five times and scoring 75 total touchdowns with the Colts.

3. Clinton Portis, Broncos (289 points)

Portis recorded 33 catches, 1,872 all-purpose yards and 17 total touchdowns in his rookie season. What makes those numbers even more incredible is that Portis rushed for just 46 yards with no touchdowns in his first two games. He went on to rush for 100-plus yards in seven of his final 12 games and was a true fantasy superstar for owners.

4. Billy Sims, Lions (288 points)

Sims, not Barry Sanders, had the best rookie season among Lions' running backs in the past three decades. The top pick in the 1980 NFL Draft, Sims recorded 51 catches, 1,924 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns as a rookie. In his second season, Sims had 1,888 all-purpose yards and 15 total touchdowns as the centerpiece of the team's offense.

5. Fred Taylor, Jaguars (266 points)

Taylor isn't the Florida running back you might expect to see on this list, but he was better as a rookie than Emmitt Smith. He rushed for 1,223 yards, hauled in another 421 yards as a receiver out of the backfield and scored a total of 17 touchdowns in 1998. Taylor would go on to become a solid fantasy back during his time with the Jaguars.

6. Curtis Martin, Patriots (265 points)

Martin, a third-round pick in the 1995 NFL Draft, was a tremendous find for the Patriots and fantasy owners alike during his rookie season. The Pittsburgh product rushed for an impressive 1,487 yards and scored 15 total touchdowns, helping countless owners to a title. He would go on to rush for 1,000-plus yards in 10 consecutive NFL seasons.

7. Curt Warner, Seahawks (261 points)

Before there was Kurt Warner the quarterback, there was Curt Warner the running back. He produced immense numbers as a rookie with 42 receptions, 1,774 all-purpose yards and 14 total touchdowns. Warner, the No. 3 overall pick behind John Elway and Dickerson in the 1983 NFL Draft, would endure knee troubles that would hinder his rise to stardom.

8. Barry Sanders, Lions (259 points)

Sanders, taken with the No. 3 overall pick in 1989 behind Troy Aikman and Tony Mandarich, rushed for 1,470 yards and 14 touchdowns as a rookie. He would go on to rush for 1,000-plus yards in every season of his career and was a first-round staple in all fantasy drafts. Had he not retired, Sanders might be the NFL's all-time leader in rushing yards.

9. George Rogers, Saints (258 points)

Rogers, the No. 1 overall selection in the 1981 NFL Draft, rushed for what was then an NFL rookie record 1,674 yards, scored 13 touchdowns and averaged a solid 104.6 rushing yards per game. While he never found that same level of success again in New Orleans, he did rush for 1,203 yards and a career-best 18 touchdowns with the Redskins in 1986.

10. Mike Anderson, Broncos (256 points)

Anderson, a major fantasy sleeper, rushed for 1,487 yards and 15 touchdowns as a rookie in Broncos coach Mike Shanahan's offense. Injuries and the selection of Portis in 2002 limited his value from 2001-2003, but Anderson re-emerged into a viable option with 1,014 yards and 13 total touchdowns in 2005. He spent his final two seasons as a reserve in Baltimore.

And that doesn't even include other RBs, like Adrian Peterson, who had great rookie seasons.

 

[Heep]

And that doesn't even include other RBs, like Adrian Peterson, who had great rookie seasons.

Mike Anderson will be out of the top 10 after Ingram's rookie season

 

[LHUCKS]

Based on ADP

Under

QB - Sam Bradford

RB - Beanie Wells

WR - Kenny Brit(though in expert drafts he is going much earlier than ADP suggests)

Over

QB - Freeman if you put a gun to my head, but I don't see many huge reaches

RB - Peyton Hillis

WR - Reggie Wayne

 

[Raider Nation]

And that doesn't even include other RBs, like Adrian Peterson, who had great rookie seasons.

Mike Anderson will be out of the top 10 after Ingram's rookie season

Assuming no health issues, I think that's reasonable.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Overrated: Arian Foster. I dont think the stars line up for him again this year.Underrated: Jason Campbell. Darren McFadden is going to open up the passing game.

And who will he throw to with Zach Miller gone? And remember once they start losing games which they will, he will get benched. Stay away from all Raiders including McFadden. The NFC North Defenses will kill the Raiders O this year. You think Mcfadden can run on the Bears and Packers D?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Overrated: Arian Foster. I dont think the stars line up for him again this year.

Why do "stars have to align"? Can't a young RB come into the league on a high scoring offense and lead the league in rushing and simply be considered an upcoming talent?I've said it before: the bias against foster (still, remarkably) is "name recognition", "pre-existing hype", and maybe just a pinch of "pride" from those who refused to take notice last year. The guy rocked last year. Had Ryan Matthews done the same thing, regardless of any other factor, people would be advertising him as the next Marshall Faulk. But because the media didn't annoint him as the chosen one BEFORE he ever stepped on an NFL football field, people can't just trust their eyes and the results. Always gotta be a "yeah, but...".

Or Foster's injury historyOr that this happens often in Houston...Dominac Davis...Steve Slaton...Arian Foster...etcOR losing the best blocking FB in the leagueTake your pick

 

[jon_mx]

Good posting on rookie RB.....

note for the RB thread where Billy Sims is.

 

[Heep]

Under: Fred Jackson - Stevie Johnson was on ESPN radio in July and said if he had to choose a Buffalo RB this year for fantasy, it would be FJax. I see 1000+ yards, 35+ catches and 6-9 tds. He can be picked very late.

Over: J. Charles - I think he will have to rely on the big runs this year and I don't think they will come as often. I like him, just not at 1.03 - 1.05 ADP

 

[bengalbuck]

In PPR, I think both Jonathan Stewart and Legarrette Blount are getting way overdrafted. Hard to put up high level RB2 numbers (which is where Blount is getting drafted) without receptions, especially since TB is a passing team once they get in the red zone. Stewart, even after the Williams signing, is still getting drafted too high. He has next to no value in PPR.

I like Reggie Bush as an underrated guy. He averages 5 catches per game for his career. Miami wants to get him 12 touches per game. If 5 or 6 of those come from catches...then he's an 80+ catch guy and could be a real solid RB3 in PPR. You can grab him at RB5 or 6 prices.

 

[Sweetness_34]

Under rated (PPR leagues):

Owen Daniels (will be monster value pick in PPR leagues coming off as the 7th or later TE in drafts)

Austin Collie (again great value)

Lance Moore

Over-rated (PPR leagues):

Greg Jennings (just too many weapons to compete with and Ryan Grant back means more running)

Chris Johnson (that O will stink; later in the year and during your FF playoffs, the rookie QB will definitely be starting when they are 2-6 to start the season. Guess what, Ds will have 9 in a box stopping Chris Johnson....stay away given he is getting drafted in the top 3)

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Underrated: Ben Roethlisberger

Last 2 seasons have seen BB pass for (per game numnbers) 278.8 Yards, 1.6 TD's and .6 INT's while also rushing for 9.6 Yards and .2 TD's. FF Calculator has him at QB10. I think you can make an argument for him to be included in the tier under Vick/Rodgers.

Overrated: LeSean McCoy

His FF Calculator ADP is 1:06. Last year he had 1672 YFS & 9 TD's (in 15 games). In Brian Westbrook's heyday, he exceeded 240 carries just once. Last year, McCoy exceeded 16 carries just twice (both times when Vick was sidelined). I know alot of his value comes in the passing game. But of his 9 TD's, 6 were from outside the 10...he's not the primary goal line option (Vick is...and perhaps R. Brown too). Still a very valuable player, but I see a big gap between him and the 5 RB's in front of him. I'd pick McFadden/MJD/Gore/Mendenhall and perhaps Forte over him.

 

[DaMenace18]

Underated:

Knowshon Moreno - (PPR GOLD) He's in the best shape of his life. They are reverting back to a zone-blocking system. John Fox, run heavy offense. Willis isn't a huge threat.

Josepth Addai - He's back with the Colts. Manning took a pay cut in order to keep Addai. He's great value at an adp of 70. Also going to catch 30 passes from the backfield, making him a strong flex in ppr leagues.

Marshawn Lynch - The pieces they added on that offense. The continuity on the O-line and a full year in Seattle will make Lynch even better. He's great value.

I agree with Wells being vastly underated.

Overated:

Blount - Tougher schedule, he's terrible at catching passes. Bad value at the 45th spot in PPR leagues.

Brandon Marshall - His catches will decline with Bush and Bess taking away allot of targets. Terrible QB situation.

Gates - At an ADP of 32, he is being over-drafted. Lingering issues. Not worth it at that spot with all the other 3 TE's going a round or two later.

 

[Shutout]

Overrated: Arian Foster. I dont think the stars line up for him again this year.

Why do "stars have to align"? Can't a young RB come into the league on a high scoring offense and lead the league in rushing and simply be considered an upcoming talent?I've said it before: the bias against foster (still, remarkably) is "name recognition", "pre-existing hype", and maybe just a pinch of "pride" from those who refused to take notice last year. The guy rocked last year. Had Ryan Matthews done the same thing, regardless of any other factor, people would be advertising him as the next Marshall Faulk. But because the media didn't annoint him as the chosen one BEFORE he ever stepped on an NFL football field, people can't just trust their eyes and the results. Always gotta be a "yeah, but...".

Or Foster's injury historyOr that this happens often in Houston...Dominac Davis...Steve Slaton...Arian Foster...etcOR losing the best blocking FB in the leagueTake your pick

Ok..I'll play your silly game. I pick all three.1-Foster's injury history..The one that says he hasn't missed any games to injury in the NFL since startign to play regularly in 2009. I can't help it if the guy got a boo boo in college. We aren't talking fred taylor here.2-So teams can't go through a few guys until they find THE guy? Minnesota Vikings leading rushers:2002-Bennett2003-Moe wiliams2004-Onterrio Smith2005-Mewelde Moore2006-Chester Taylor2007-Adrian peterson (LOOK WHO FOUND THEIR GUY).Really don't know how that is even a "reason" to knock Foster. Its actually the reverse. THE GUY arrives and closes the revolving door. That is a good thing.3-Losing a great lead blocker never helps but its not the end of the world. Adrian peterson lost his QB, top WR, and O-line last year and was fine. Prospects look worse for him this year. Time to sell Peterson? No faith the man can do it by himself?People who nay-say based on other people's hype instead of what they saw with their own two eyes on the field are the guys that overpay for players AFTER they hit.

 

[eakfootball]

Over- Greg Jennings

Under- Ryan Williams

 

[butcher boy]

Overrated: Arian Foster. I dont think the stars line up for him again this year.

Why do "stars have to align"? Can't a young RB come into the league on a high scoring offense and lead the league in rushing and simply be considered an upcoming talent?I've said it before: the bias against foster (still, remarkably) is "name recognition", "pre-existing hype", and maybe just a pinch of "pride" from those who refused to take notice last year. The guy rocked last year. Had Ryan Matthews done the same thing, regardless of any other factor, people would be advertising him as the next Marshall Faulk. But because the media didn't annoint him as the chosen one BEFORE he ever stepped on an NFL football field, people can't just trust their eyes and the results. Always gotta be a "yeah, but...".

Or Foster's injury historyOr that this happens often in Houston...Dominac Davis...Steve Slaton...Arian Foster...etcOR losing the best blocking FB in the leagueTake your pick

I'll draft a Texans RB after 2 consecutive good seasons. If you have one of the top 5 picks, there are safer options than Foster.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Overrated: Arian Foster. I dont think the stars line up for him again this year.

Why do "stars have to align"? Can't a young RB come into the league on a high scoring offense and lead the league in rushing and simply be considered an upcoming talent?I've said it before: the bias against foster (still, remarkably) is "name recognition", "pre-existing hype", and maybe just a pinch of "pride" from those who refused to take notice last year. The guy rocked last year. Had Ryan Matthews done the same thing, regardless of any other factor, people would be advertising him as the next Marshall Faulk. But because the media didn't annoint him as the chosen one BEFORE he ever stepped on an NFL football field, people can't just trust their eyes and the results. Always gotta be a "yeah, but...".

Or Foster's injury historyOr that this happens often in Houston...Dominac Davis...Steve Slaton...Arian Foster...etcOR losing the best blocking FB in the leagueTake your pick

Ok..I'll play your silly game. I pick all three.1-Foster's injury history..The one that says he hasn't missed any games to injury in the NFL since startign to play regularly in 2009. I can't help it if the guy got a boo boo in college. We aren't talking fred taylor here.2-So teams can't go through a few guys until they find THE guy? Minnesota Vikings leading rushers:2002-Bennett2003-Moe wiliams2004-Onterrio Smith2005-Mewelde Moore2006-Chester Taylor2007-Adrian peterson (LOOK WHO FOUND THEIR GUY).Really don't know how that is even a "reason" to knock Foster. Its actually the reverse. THE GUY arrives and closes the revolving door. That is a good thing.3-Losing a great lead blocker never helps but its not the end of the world. Adrian peterson lost his QB, top WR, and O-line last year and was fine. Prospects look worse for him this year. Time to sell Peterson? No faith the man can do it by himself?People who nay-say based on other people's hype instead of what they saw with their own two eyes on the field are the guys that overpay for players AFTER they hit.

1)-John McClain from the Houston Cronicle has stated that Foster may have already pulled something in training camp and be injured.-2006 Ankle issues at Tenn-2008 had to have knee surgery that ended his spring football-Had to leave the senior bowl b/c of swelling in his knee-2010 played with an injured knee(apparently) but did injure it in the Pro Bowl and had surgery in the offseason.2)The reason to knock Foster is because of the SYSTEM. Steve Slaton was great in the system one year, then boom not great the next year. Davis was the same way. Foster was better than them, but I would lessen my expectations.3)Vonta Leach helped Foster's big season greatly. Go back and look at highlights if you have to. Leach sprung many big runs/TDs for Foster.4)What about Ben Tate? Is he just going to ride the pine or is he going to eat into Fosters carries as well.You have repeatedly mentioned Adrian Peterson. Big differences between the two RBs. Peterson was a huge success in college. He tested better than Foster. He hasn't had repeated knee surgeries. He has been successful in the NFL over a number of years.Come to the table with a better points next time.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Over valued: Vick, I am not saying he will be a bad fantasy player, but it is like the Chris Johnson effect after a tremendous year. Chris Johnson had 1600 combined yards and 12 td's and it was considered a down year. Vick won't be able to duplicate his ppg from a year ago and many are banking on similar numbers. That won't happen.

Under Valued: Austin Collie, I started a thread on him a while back saying he is the most underrated fantasy player heading into this season. His ppg was among the elite, and if he plays a full season I don't see how he does not finish in the top 12 WR's in the league. He has the trust of Manning and is built for that system in Indy. Sevely underrated!

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

talking ppr here only

I have my doubts about Arian Foster but at worst, I am taking him 4 picks after his ADP so he isn't anywhere near my most overrated guy.

I'll go with Ryan Matthews. ADP 15 / I have him 20. I don't see him taking away enough of Tolbert's carries to justify this high ADP. I also can see Tolbert being the goal line back and 3rd down back which would steal even more thunder from Matthews. He is going a round or 2 high for me.

I'll go with Holmes. ADP 21 / I have him 13. With Plax on the other side, Holmes should be able to get open all day. Plus he never has to visit Revis Island on Sunday.

 

[NeverEnough]

Over valued: Vick, I am not saying he will be a bad fantasy player, but it is like the Chris Johnson effect after a tremendous year. Chris Johnson had 1600 combined yards and 12 td's and it was considered a down year. Vick won't be able to duplicate his ppg from a year ago and many are banking on similar numbers. That won't happen.

Under Valued: Austin Collie, I started a thread on him a while back saying he is the most underrated fantasy player heading into this season. His ppg was among the elite, and if he plays a full season I don't see how he does not finish in the top 12 WR's in the league. He has the trust of Manning and is built for that system in Indy. Sevely underrated!

Even with Gonzalez back?

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Over valued: Vick, I am not saying he will be a bad fantasy player, but it is like the Chris Johnson effect after a tremendous year. Chris Johnson had 1600 combined yards and 12 td's and it was considered a down year. Vick won't be able to duplicate his ppg from a year ago and many are banking on similar numbers. That won't happen.

Under Valued: Austin Collie, I started a thread on him a while back saying he is the most underrated fantasy player heading into this season. His ppg was among the elite, and if he plays a full season I don't see how he does not finish in the top 12 WR's in the league. He has the trust of Manning and is built for that system in Indy. Sevely underrated!

I agree on Vick. Collie seems to me to be both overrated and underrated. Underrated by the majority and overrated by those that drink his kool-aid.

 

[Lash]

overrated: Ryan Mathews (and i even own him in 2 dynasties) ... classic case of a fella gettin paid and quits working ... how does a skill position player come in not able to pass the conditioning test?

underrated: Kenny Britt ... i like to get players who others are labeling as knuckleheads (as a fella who i work with that coaches college football says "you gotta have some thugs to win in football" )

 

[The Moz]

QB

Under - Eli Manning - all he has done is post 4000 yards and 26 - 30 TD's the last 2 seasons and he is going very late in drafts.

Over - Josh Freeman - I think he has talent but is nothing more than a #2 QB not a #1 as he is being drafted as.

RB

Under - Daniel Thomas - a rookie that has no real comp for the everydown duties with Brown and Ricky gone - with a coach that likes power football.

Over - Arian Foster - With Tate healthy and his FB gone I don't see those numbers from last season.

WR

Under rated - Austin Collie - as he could be a legit top 10 if not better PPR wide out who is going from late 5th to early 8th.

Over rated - Calvin Johnson - Can't see him or Stafford healthy all year and he is being drafted in the 1st round of many drafts?

TE

Under - Jimmy Graham - Brees loves the TE shockey just couldn't get open.

over - Witten - Last year Wittens great stats were after Romo was injured - Romo likes to throw to the WR's even if Witten is his friend.

 

[shortbow]

Overrated: Desean Jackson (there is not a more overrated player in the NFL)

Underrated: Wes Welker (3 consecutive huge years, blows his knee, comes back early puts up 86/850/7 and everyone thinks hes gonna slow down, why?)

 

[johnadams]

My picks:

Over-rated: Turner/SJax/Gore. Those who fail to remember history are doomed to repeat it or however the quote goes. People are drafting these three at their ceilings which is a big mistake for older RBs. You might catch lightning, but RBs rarely fade. One year they are there, the next, they are gone.

Under-rated: Mathews. A healthy season from Mathews is top five potential. Tolbert will be getting Mathews's scraps. Norv likes bellcow backs and a healthy Mathews will be the bell cow. It's that darn injury history that gives me some pause when I think about drafting him.

 

[shortbow]

My picks:

Over-rated: Turner/SJax/Gore. Those who fail to remember history are doomed to repeat it or however the quote goes. People are drafting these three at their ceilings which is a big mistake for older RBs. You might catch lightning, but RBs rarely fade. One year they are there, the next, they are gone.

Under-rated: Mathews. A healthy season from Mathews is top five potential. Tolbert will be getting Mathews's scraps. Norv likes bellcow backs and a healthy Mathews will be the bell cow. It's that darn injury history that gives me some pause when I think about drafting him.

Not that he wont get a single goal line carry?

 

[rocketsauce]

Overrated - Jamaal Charles. Is he explosive, yes. Can he score from anywhere on the field, yes. People are very quick to forget how Haley used him for the first 10 games of the year last year, and I expect a similar workload this season (with perhaps even less Goal Line chances with McClain in the fold.) The Chiefs schedule is absurdly hard (as opposed to last year's historically soft cupcake schedule) and people are going to be very disappointed by the bad weeks you're going to see from the entire Chiefs offense.

Underrated - Mario Manningham. Sure, he's gathering steam, but with an ADP still sitting in the 7th or 8th, he is certainly way underrated for now. He'll be a top 20 WR and you'll wish he was your WR2 or WR3. The Giants WR development system is damn good. The writing was on the wall for Nicks last year, and those of us that went ahead and ranked him near or above Steve Smith and took a chance were handsomely rewarded for the first 2/3 of the season. Its gonna happen again this year, and Nicks & Manningham will likely trade big weeks.

 

[rocketsauce]

Over valued: Vick, I am not saying he will be a bad fantasy player, but it is like the Chris Johnson effect after a tremendous year. Chris Johnson had 1600 combined yards and 12 td's and it was considered a down year. Vick won't be able to duplicate his ppg from a year ago and many are banking on similar numbers. That won't happen.

Under Valued: Austin Collie, I started a thread on him a while back saying he is the most underrated fantasy player heading into this season. His ppg was among the elite, and if he plays a full season I don't see how he does not finish in the top 12 WR's in the league. He has the trust of Manning and is built for that system in Indy. Sevely underrated!

Vick "won't" be able to duplicate his absurd ppg from a year ago, yet Collie will? Care to explain why, in either case?

 

[Irish Chaos]

Overrated: Desean Jackson (there is not a more overrated player in the NFL)Underrated: Wes Welker (3 consecutive huge years, blows his knee, comes back early puts up 86/850/7 and everyone thinks hes gonna slow down, why?)

agreed (huge eagles fan)

 

[Bankerguy]

Over rated. Mick Vick...I see him going first in some drafts. Crazy. He WILL miss time due to injury and not worth his ADP. Honorable mention to H. Nicks.

 

[cobalt_27]

Over-rated: Vick for obvious reasons. This board, in particular, has gone completely off the deep end, finding a way to rationalize losing him to a few games and still justifying a #1 pick. Will be fun to watch the pain unfold for these unfortunate souls as the year progresses.

Under-rated: Ingram. Unfortunately, it's getting out there too quickly before drafts that this kid is gold and that Payton is going to use him accordingly. But, he's still great value for a 3rd round back. Going be top-10 RB this year.

 

[Ilov80s]

Overrated - Jamaal Charles. Is he explosive, yes. Can he score from anywhere on the field, yes. People are very quick to forget how Haley used him for the first 10 games of the year last year, and I expect a similar workload this season (with perhaps even less Goal Line chances with McClain in the fold.) The Chiefs schedule is absurdly hard (as opposed to last year's historically soft cupcake schedule) and people are going to be very disappointed by the bad weeks you're going to see from the entire Chiefs offense.

Underrated - Mario Manningham. Sure, he's gathering steam, but with an ADP still sitting in the 7th or 8th, he is certainly way underrated for now. He'll be a top 20 WR and you'll wish he was your WR2 or WR3. The Giants WR development system is damn good. The writing was on the wall for Nicks last year, and those of us that went ahead and ranked him near or above Steve Smith and took a chance were handsomely rewarded for the first 2/3 of the season. Its gonna happen again this year, and Nicks & Manningham will likely trade big weeks.

In the first 10 games, Charles rushed or was targeted 18 times a game, the last 6 games he was targeted 19 times a game. Not really that big of a difference in the amount of times a game the offense looked to Charles. Charles averaged about 5 more FF points a game during those final 6 games, but it wasn't due to a huge increase in workload. Jamal Charles did have an amazing 2010 for how productive he was with so little. In a ppr league, he essentially finished dead even with Adrian Peterson despite ADP touching the ball 45 more times than Charles. Since Charles averaged about 17 touches a game, that means those 45 extra touches ADP got are the equivalent to 2.5 games worth of extra touches!

If compare the number of plays a RB gets a rush or is targeted for a pass and compare it to the number of offensive snaps the team had, you get a good picture for how heavy a team is relying on a certain player. Lets look at those % from 2010

1. Arian Foster 40% again that means on 40% of Houston's offensive snaps. they either ran it to Foster or targeted Foster for a pass

2. Hillis 37%

3. ADP 36%

4. Jamal Charles 28%

5. Chris Johnson 41%

6. McFadden 33%

7. Mendenhall 36%

8. McCoy 31%

9. Turner 32%

10. Ray Rice 38%

Charles just did so much more with so much less. There is still a lot of room for him to grow in that offense. The goal line carries will be a big deal though. Of Jamal's 8 TDs last year, 5 came from with in 5 yards of the end zone.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Overrated is Mike Vick, I think he'll have monster games along the way but ultimately wear down as he did last year.

I'm seeing Mike Vick posts about him being No. 1 overall...,crazy.

Underrated- Tough one but I think Ingram. I think he's in for a bunch of Td's and your ROY.

 

[djmich]

PPR rankings

Over

RB - MJD. The offense is horrible, even worse than last year, lingering concern over knee injury.

TE - Jimmy Graham. He's good but overhyped at this point.

WR - Jennings. Finley back, too many mouths to feed

Under

RB - Best. He's healthy and sharing with Leshoure won't hurt as much as thought. A ppr machine.

TE - Marcedes Lewis. He's all Garrard has in terms of receivers

WR - Harvin. Also benefit from PPR, migranes behind him, finally reaches potential.

 

[Hüsker Brü]

Overrated: Michael Vick. The downside could be severe. An injury risk, a character risk, and nowhere near as a good a passer as the other top-10 QBs.

Underrated: Anquan Boldin. Doesn't seem to be getting much ADP or mock-draft love, but I think he'll have a huge year if he stays healthy.

 

[FUBAR]

Overrated is Mike Vick, I think he'll have monster games along the way but ultimately wear down as he did last year.

I'm seeing Mike Vick posts about him being No. 1 overall...,crazy.

Underrated- Tough one but I think Ingram. I think he's in for a bunch of Td's and your ROY.

he might be overrated, but he was the top QB in the 2nd half of the last FF season by a fair margin. In most leagues FF playoffs, he outscored Brady (#2) by 5 ppg.

 

[Moonlight]

Wow. The people knocking Foster... I don't even know where to begin.I guess the best question is who do you draft over him? AP had an injury history in college and his o-line looks to be in bad shape.CJ has a slight build, dropped off last year, and his offense as a whole looks like crap. Is a 36 yr old Hass really the answer?Foster is a stud. Houston ran plenty of one back sets last year. Vickers, who replaced Leach, is no slouch. Tate is still unproven. Last year Ward was averaging 6.1ypc and he didn't steal many carries from Foster. Foster had a torn meniscus last year which has been fixed.Lots of crazy talk here. Foster is the safest bet out there.

Agree with this. Foster is a good bet for top production.

 

[Blackjacks]

underrated -

qb Bradford

rb Felix

wr Holmes

overrated -

qb Cassel

rb Charles

wr Reggie Wayne

 

[redBourne]

underrated - qb Bradfordrb Felixwr Holmesoverrated -qb Casselrb Charleswr Reggie Wayne

For those making posts, please give a reason why you feel the way you do about underrated and overrated players. Even if it's a short reason or "just what I feel" it gives us some insight to your thoughts. Posts like the one I quoted I predict are more often just glazed over. At least I do.

 

[Dismattle]

Im just posting, beacuse I like the post..

Over rated: Im gonna have to say Vick (this is under assumption of drafting in 1st rnd, which is what you preety much have to do) Isnt it an old rule don't take a QB early?

Under rated: Barber (entire opposite of Vick, no chance hes drafted in 1st Rnd) maybe not even drafted at all!

Please disreguard this post for Fantasy purposes!

fyi: I coulda/shoulda took Vick as backup last yr (late too), and I actually drafted the Barbarian.

Doh Edit: I didnt read entire post!

Vick's rating (I believe his passing is much better thn I recall, but for instance Vick completed 16 pass's wk 14 vs Dal along w 2 picks) wk 12 on included at least one pick (some of the teams on this yr's schedule are supposedly putting an emphasis on Def)

Barber has a new team/coach and if his talents to block, catch screen's, and short yardage are used correctly he could be quite productive w even limited action.

End Edit.