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Your Top 10 RBs for 2013 (non-PPR) (1 Viewer)

koreansteve

Footballguy
I would love to see some explanation and reasoning behind your top 10 list. I'm much less informed than many of you, but here's my initial list...

1. Adrian Peterson - Not a whole lot has changed. He's unbelievable and the lack of a decent passing game doesn't seem to affect him. No reason to think he won't get over 300 carries, double digits rushing TDs, and at least 30 catches. I expect his YPC to come down a bit from last year (6.0).

2. Arian Foster - His YPC and number of receptions have declined each of the past 3 years. But he has remained one of the most consistent players week-to-week and continues to be on pace for 15 rushing TDs every year.

3. Doug Martin - 300 carries and 50 receptions seems easily within his grasp. Upgrades on the O-line, a year of experience under his belt, and the entire offense in year 2 under Mike Sullivan make me think that a regression is unlikely.

4. Jamal Charles - As a Charles owner last year, watching him underutilized (less than 13 carries in 4 games last year) was frustrating to say the least. With Andy Reid, a more competent QB in Alex Smith, Charles should see an uptick in receptions and hopefully defenses will not be able to put 8-9 in the box.

5. C.J. Spiller - He proved that he can maintain his impressive YPC average even with an increased workload. Fred Jackson is 32 and I expect Spiller to get at least 235 carries and 50+ receptions. The scary part to me is that this offense might stall often and Buffalo will likely play from behind in most games. Hopefully BUF's plans to go more up-tempo helps increase their total number of plays in 2013.

6. Alfred Morris - His lack of receptions is really the only thing I see holding him back. 300 carries and double digit TDs seem very likely in 2013.

7. Ray Rice - The loss of Cam Cameron and the emergence of Bernard Pierce scare me...perhaps more than they should. I think he's a solid option and a great bet to finish #5 to #9...but I don't really see top 3 upside...which all of the guys above him possess. Solid but unspectacular would be how I see it.

8. Marshawn Lynch - I would have him at #5 but we're going to have to wait to see how the whole DUI situation works out and how many games he's suspended. SEA should be leading most games, but Turbin and Michael may see the field more often than Lynch owners would like.

9. Lesean McCoy - Chip Kelly, up-tempo, lots of opportunity. But the uncertainty at QB and the emergence of Bryce Brown as a very capable player are concerning. I don't see him getting the 270+ carries he received in 2011. Could be a stud in the new offensive scheme...but I'm not buying it just yet.

10. Steven Jackson - I have a lot of players bunched up here. Forte's lack of TD potential, CJohnson's inconsistency from week-to-week, TRich's injury history and low YPC average... I think SJAX thrives in a high-powered offense in ATL. Atlanta should be ahead more often than not, obviously he'll get more opportunities near the goal-line than he ever did in STL, and he doesn't appear to have lost much based on watching him last year.

That's my list right now...would love to hear from smarter voices.

 

omally

Footballguy
10. Steven Jackson - I have a lot of players bunched up here. Forte's lack of TD potential, CJohnson's inconsistency from week-to-week, TRich's injury history and low YPC average... I think SJAX thrives in a high-powered offense in ATL. Atlanta should be ahead more often than not, obviously he'll get more opportunities near the goal-line than he ever did in STL, and he doesn't appear to have lost much based on watching him last year.
First off, nice list. I just want to comment on Forte. He has a new coach this year, and that coach may give him chances at the GL. We'll find out.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
History has shown that there is about a 50% turnover in the Top 10 RBs from year to year. A lot of that stems from injuries . . . either to players that were in the Top 10 last year that get dinged this year, or players that were healthy 2 years ago, were injured last year, and are healthy again this year.

 

dickey moe

Fingerpicker
Love Charles in PPR but just don't see a Top 5 finish for him in non-PPR. Forte could bust the Top 10 bubble.

 

gianmarco

Footballguy
I would love to see some explanation and reasoning behind your top 10 list. I'm much less informed than many of you, but here's my initial list...

1. Adrian Peterson - Not a whole lot has changed. He's unbelievable and the lack of a decent passing game doesn't seem to affect him. No reason to think he won't get over 300 carries, double digits rushing TDs, and at least 30 catches. I expect his YPC to come down a bit from last year (6.0).

2. Arian Foster - His YPC and number of receptions have declined each of the past 3 years. But he has remained one of the most consistent players week-to-week and continues to be on pace for 15 rushing TDs every year.

3. Doug Martin - 300 carries and 50 receptions seems easily within his grasp. Upgrades on the O-line, a year of experience under his belt, and the entire offense in year 2 under Mike Sullivan make me think that a regression is unlikely.

4. Jamal Charles - As a Charles owner last year, watching him underutilized (less than 13 carries in 4 games last year) was frustrating to say the least. With Andy Reid, a more competent QB in Alex Smith, Charles should see an uptick in receptions and hopefully defenses will not be able to put 8-9 in the box.

5. C.J. Spiller - He proved that he can maintain his impressive YPC average even with an increased workload. Fred Jackson is 32 and I expect Spiller to get at least 235 carries and 50+ receptions. The scary part to me is that this offense might stall often and Buffalo will likely play from behind in most games. Hopefully BUF's plans to go more up-tempo helps increase their total number of plays in 2013.

6. Alfred Morris - His lack of receptions is really the only thing I see holding him back. 300 carries and double digit TDs seem very likely in 2013.

7. Ray Rice - The loss of Cam Cameron and the emergence of Bernard Pierce scare me...perhaps more than they should. I think he's a solid option and a great bet to finish #5 to #9...but I don't really see top 3 upside...which all of the guys above him possess. Solid but unspectacular would be how I see it.

8. Marshawn Lynch - I would have him at #5 but we're going to have to wait to see how the whole DUI situation works out and how many games he's suspended. SEA should be leading most games, but Turbin and Michael may see the field more often than Lynch owners would like.

9. Lesean McCoy - Chip Kelly, up-tempo, lots of opportunity. But the uncertainty at QB and the emergence of Bryce Brown as a very capable player are concerning. I don't see him getting the 270+ carries he received in 2011. Could be a stud in the new offensive scheme...but I'm not buying it just yet.

10. Steven Jackson - I have a lot of players bunched up here. Forte's lack of TD potential, CJohnson's inconsistency from week-to-week, TRich's injury history and low YPC average... I think SJAX thrives in a high-powered offense in ATL. Atlanta should be ahead more often than not, obviously he'll get more opportunities near the goal-line than he ever did in STL, and he doesn't appear to have lost much based on watching him last year.

That's my list right now...would love to hear from smarter voices.
I find it interesting that, despite all the talk about how RBs are more scarce, in addition to the above, I'd say the following all have the potential to land in the top 10 this year (in no specific order):

1. Forte (done it before)

2. Reggie Bush (13th and 14th the last 2 years, could do even better)

3. David Wilson

4. Lamar Miller

5. Ridley (done it before)

6. Trent (done it before)

7. MJD (done it before)

8. DMC (done it before)

9. Murray

10. Gore (done it before)

11. Mathews (done it before)

12. Stewart (11th before)

13. Bradshaw

14. Chris Johnson (done it before)

15. Mendenhall (done it before)

Most of those guys listed have actually had large workloads at some point in their career. While the chances each of them have to get there varies, most of these guys have very little in terms of competing carries.

That's 25 RBs with a chance to put up big #'s and 250+ carries. Now, there's still lots that can happen (Wilson and Miller first time starters, the health of guys like MJD, DMC, Mathews, Stewart, Bradshaw, etc.) and obviously not all of these guys will get there. But, the point is that a legit argument can be made for just about every guy on this list to have a shot at cracking the top 10. This is actually the deepest the position has looked to me in terms of no RBBC in a long time. And it could get longer if guys like Ball, Bell, Ivory, and Lacy get the bulk of the carries.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Well thought out list. My input on it would be, since it is Non-ppr, I think that lowers Charles' position a decent amount and raises Lynch's. For simplicity sake, you might be able to almost flip those two and then massage the in between guys.

Because it is non-Ppr, I think you also remove SJAX from this list. He, himself, is on record as saying he expect a lot of his work to be through catching the ball this year and used as space so I would likely replace him with Forte, Gore, or Richardson, in no particular order.

But I think you have the general assembly of top players pegged and are pretty close to how it will shake out. In non-ppr, you have to give some preference to the TD makers and that probably means maybe Rice above Spiller.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
My ppr projections: Top 15. Have not adjusted for risk yet:

[SIZE=small]Rank[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Player[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Rushing Yards[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Rushing TDs[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Receptions[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Receiving Yards[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Receiving TDs[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]Fantasy Points[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]1[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Jamaal Charles[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1395[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]8[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]65[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]505[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]315[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Arian Foster [/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1405[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]14[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]40[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]295[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]306[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]3[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Adrian Peterson[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1600[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]14[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]32[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]240[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]306[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]4[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Ray Rice[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1285[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]8[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]60[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]475[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]3[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]302[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]5[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]CJ Spiller[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1345[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]8[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]46[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]385[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]279[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]6[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Trent Richardson[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1275[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]12[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]41[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]315[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]278[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]7[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Darren McFadden[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1325[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]9[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]44[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]340[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]276.5[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]8[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Doug Martin[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1255[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]10[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]45[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]320[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]274.5[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]9[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]LeSean McCoy[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1205[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]9[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]50[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]370[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]273.5[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]10[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Reggie Bush[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]880[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]5[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]73[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]605[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]263.5[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]11[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Marshawn Lynch[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1455[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]12[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]22[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]170[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]0[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]256.5[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]12[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Matt Forte[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1150[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]5[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]58[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]400[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]255[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]13[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Lamar Miller[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1345[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]9[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]33[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]265[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]254[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]14[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Steven Jackson[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1150[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]10[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]38[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]255[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]244.5[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]15[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]Chris Johnson[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]1280[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]5[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]41[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]325[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]2[/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]243.5[/SIZE]

[SIZE=medium]ETA: Sorry for poor formatting.[/SIZE]

 
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gandalas

Footballguy
PPR (don't play Non-PPR):

1) Peterson. Until he shows some signs of stopping, you can't really take him off the top.

2) Richardson. Call me a homer, but I just see major signs pointing to a nice increase for him in year 2. More Experienced surrounding cast, MUCH better offensive coach and Coordinator, and better line.

3) Charles. #5 last season, and I love his potential under the new coach.

4) Foster. Struggled due to O-line woes last year, and still finished #3.

5) Martin. I just see him down slightly from last year, mainly due to not playing the Raiders again.

6) Rice. Still has a few great seasons left in him, and I actually think that getting spelled a bit by Pierce could help his efficiency. Losing Leach will hurt, but I see a lot more passes coming his way with the loss of Boldin.

7) McCoy. I love him in the new offense of Kelly.

8) Lynch. Obviously dependent upon no suspension for him. But can't put him too much lower, for this year at least.

9) Spiller. Could be 5 spots higher or lower depending upon usage.

10) CJ2K. I just see a nice bounceback year from him. rb13 Even last season.

Threatening: Morris, Forte, Jackson, Gore, Wilson, Bush.

 
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