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Your top 3 fantasy RB next year? (1 Viewer)

In PPR, Chubb is #10 in ppg in weeks 7-16, at least for now (Lindsay could pass him tonight).

In weeks 7-16, he has 167/799/6 rushing (4.8 ypc) and 18/153/2 receiving (8.5 ypr) in 9 games. Scale that to 16 games and it is 297/1420/11 rushing and 32/272/3 receiving = 1692 total yards, 14 total TDs, and 32 receptions.

The rushing production is very strong, but his receiving production is not on par with the RBs most rankings have ahead of him (Gurley, Barkley, Elliott, Kamara, McCaffrey, Gordon).

No way he belongs in a top 3 ranking of RBs for next season.
While all of this is true, keep in mind this is December. A lot can and will change. The Browns will hopefully have improved their tackles and will likely have a new offense next season. Chubb has proven to be much more of an asset in the passing game than anyone wanted to give him credit for and has shown he has a game breaking top gear.  Mayfield is a pretty good QB for a running back to be paired to. He's not going to throw for 40 TDs next year. The best RB TD seasons were paired with efficient, but not elite QBs: Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck, LT and a young Brees, David Johnson and an old Carson Palmer, Priest Holmes and Trent Green. Chubb has 10 TDs on 201 touches. If things improve next year it's not hard to imagine him scoring 20 TDs on 300+ touches.

That being said, there's no way to confidently project Chubb as a top 3 in PPR. If Kamara and CMC continue their reception pace, it'll be hard to keep up. However, a couple things to keep in mind:
https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1077395779868778496
https://twitter.com/PFF_Sam/status/1075068026876256256

In auctions next year, I suspect Chubb will be going for at least 20% less than the guys listed in this thread. I think I'll take that discount and see how things shake out. I think he's the most likely guy to break into the top 5 who will be routinely left out of consensus top 5 rankings. 

 
While all of this is true, keep in mind this is December. A lot can and will change. The Browns will hopefully have improved their tackles and will likely have a new offense next season. Chubb has proven to be much more of an asset in the passing game than anyone wanted to give him credit for and has shown he has a game breaking top gear.  Mayfield is a pretty good QB for a running back to be paired to. He's not going to throw for 40 TDs next year. The best RB TD seasons were paired with efficient, but not elite QBs: Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck, LT and a young Brees, David Johnson and an old Carson Palmer, Priest Holmes and Trent Green. Chubb has 10 TDs on 201 touches. If things improve next year it's not hard to imagine him scoring 20 TDs on 300+ touches.

That being said, there's no way to confidently project Chubb as a top 3 in PPR. If Kamara and CMC continue their reception pace, it'll be hard to keep up. However, a couple things to keep in mind:
https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1077395779868778496
https://twitter.com/PFF_Sam/status/1075068026876256256

In auctions next year, I suspect Chubb will be going for at least 20% less than the guys listed in this thread. I think I'll take that discount and see how things shake out. I think he's the most likely guy to break into the top 5 who will be routinely left out of consensus top 5 rankings. 
I don't disagree with any of that, though I wouldn't bank on him being top 5. My post was in response to bringing up Chubb as if he should be viewed as a top 3 RB next season, which is the subject of the thread.

 
I just don't see how Lindsay is not in tier 1.5 or so. He's better than anyone in your tier 3, better than Mixon and probably equal to or betteer than Gordon ( Gordon is once again hurt, that has to start factoring in at some point. he tens to get nicked up). Remember, Lindsay is a p/t player, with about 12-15 carries/gm. if he EVER gets 15-20 consistently he'll be in the top tier in no time. 
I don't mean to derail the topic, but Lindsay is an interesting player and will likely be a polarizing guy in August. I don't know if it was defenses not taking him seriously or great blocking, but I saw a stat a few weeks ago that he led the league with over 60% of his yards coming before contact. I couldn't find that one, but here's another stat on that topic. I'm not saying to write a guy off due to that, but I'd be wary of projecting a high ypc in 2019. Another concern is that there will likely be a new coaching staff. They might prefer Royce's high yards after contact. That Denver team and staff will be drastically different than it was in 2018.

 
Agree with everything FF Ninja said above. An additional thing to consider for Lindsay is the lack of skill position talent in Denver. Sanders is likely done for his career and D Thomas aged and was traded. They went from Thomas, Sanders, Sutton to just Sutton. Hopefully they add someone in FA or the draft. If they stay status quo I think you'd be looking at an offense next year with a crud QB, lacking WR talent and ability for defenses to focus on shutting down Lindsay, if he's the guy. Defenses also have film to study on him in the off-season and he won't catch people by surprise like he did this year. Mixon on the other hand is surrounded by good WR's so defenses can't focus on him and is a good receiving threat. Cincy is almost certain to be adding a new QB or o-lineman with their 1st round pick to give Mixon a boost. Mixon >> Lindsay at this time due to Mixon being an established bellcow vs the uncertainty of Lindsay vs Freeman with the new staff, Mixon's receiving skills, and teams not being able to stack the boxes against Mixon. 

 
There are several questions that I will need to try to answer for several NFL teams whos backfields do not seem locked up to me.

However for the teams that are settled I would rank the RB as this:

Todd Gurley
Sanquon Barkley
Ezekiel Elliot
Christian McCaffrey
Alvin Kamara
Dalvin Cook
Melvin Gordon
Nick Chubb
David Johnson
Leonard Fournette
James Conner
Joe Mixon
Chris Carson
Phillip Lindsay
Derrick Henry
Tarik Cohen
Derrius Guice
Kerryon Johnson
Mark Ingram
Jordan Howard
Jerrick McKinnon
Aaron Jones

These are the backfields I have questions about in 2019:

Raiders?
Bucs?
Colts?
Texans?
Bills?
Dolphins?
Jets?
Ravens?
Eagles?
Falcons?
Chiefs?

The NFL draft and free agency will likely shape up the remaining questions I have about these teams. Several of them will stick with what they have, which can be okay. Devontae Freeman or whoever is the KC RB will have a good shot of finishing pretty high on this list in 2019. I have heard some bad things about Freemans injuries that make me wonder about him though. WIlliams looks great in KC as has Ware when he has had the opportunity. Either of these guys or someone else could be their feature RB.

Leveon Bell signing with one of these teams woul change things a lot. Tevin Coleman and Mark Ingram might be with new teams as well.

 
There are several questions that I will need to try to answer for several NFL teams whos backfields do not seem locked up to me.

However for the teams that are settled I would rank the RB as this:

Dalvin Cook

Nick Chubb
Unpack for me, how under any circumstance, this happened?

chubb outrushed cook's 2 seasons, this season. doubled his 2yr rushing TD output. and has as many receiving TDs.

I like Cook. I know he's been injured... But I dont get this.

ETA (for my friend) - and he didn;t get more then 3 carries until week 7!!!

 
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Unpack for me, how under any circumstance, this happened?

chubb outrushed cook's 2 seasons, this season. doubled his 2yr rushing TD output. and has as many receiving TDs.

I like Cook. I know he's been injured... But I dont get this.

ETA (for my friend) - and he didn;t get more then 3 carries until week 7!!!
@Biabreakable is a Vikings homer.

 
In a "keep 1 player" league, would you keep Kamara or Wentz?  non-ppr.  keep in mind, you can have said player forever if you keep freezing them.
Oh man, Kamara. You can get a guy like Wentz in any round and Kamara is awesome. Plus, Wentz has ended both seasons injured.  

 
Oh man, Kamara. You can get a guy like Wentz in any round and Kamara is awesome. Plus, Wentz has ended both seasons injured.  
Yeah, leaning that way.  I froze Wentz this past draft with the thought of freezing him for his career.  But, then I picked up Kamara in the 1st round and am now leaning that way.

 
Yeah, leaning that way.  I froze Wentz this past draft with the thought of freezing him for his career.  But, then I picked up Kamara in the 1st round and am now leaning that way.
Do you have to use the round you drafted him in? If so, when did you draft Wentz when you kept him?  

 
Do you have to use the round you drafted him in? If so, when did you draft Wentz when you kept him?  
No, not in a particular round.  Simply freeze 1 guy from last season's ending roster, or do a supplemental pick instead.  After that, everyone has 1 player and then we do the regular draft.

 
No, not in a particular round.  Simply freeze 1 guy from last season's ending roster, or do a supplemental pick instead.  After that, everyone has 1 player and then we do the regular draft.
Wow, then Kamara, IMHO. Without hesitation. Don't forget, Wentz has another broken vertebrae in his back.  

 
Wow, then Kamara, IMHO. Without hesitation. Don't forget, Wentz has another broken vertebrae in his back.  
True.  My thought was to get a young stud QB and ride him for his career.  I kept Wentz over Fournette this past year, and that kind of worked out (at least for this year).  The injury has me a bit concerned though going forward, and getting Kamara with a possibly departing Ingram has me leaning that way as you have suggested.

Thanks for the talk.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Unpack for me, how under any circumstance, this happened?

chubb outrushed cook's 2 seasons, this season. doubled his 2yr rushing TD output. and has as many receiving TDs.

I like Cook. I know he's been injured... But I dont get this.

ETA (for my friend) - and he didn;t get more then 3 carries until week 7!!!
I think that besides being injured Dalvin Cook has also been misused by former OC DeFlippo and that Cook should and will get more opportunity as we have been seeing since DeFlippo was fired. Mike ZImmer has made it very clear through word and deed that this is what he wants.

Since your friend is so interested in small sample sizes and giving credit to players who haven't had the opportunity to prove their talent yet, In the last two games Cook has 20 and 19 touches after DeFlippo was fired. Prior to that Cook averaged 12.3 touches per game this season besides missing 5 games to injury, with some of those games Cook still recovering from injury and being on a snap count. Cook has averaged 100 combined yards per game since Flip was let go and that is what he was averaging last year before he was injured.

The Vikings offensive line still sucks, but Cook is great.

I consider the RB ranked near Cook to all be the same tier. He certainly hasn't proven more than Melvin Gordon for example, but he is younger and my ranking is based on the careers they will have going forward more than what they have accomplished thus far.

As I mentioned several teams up in the air right now as far as who is going to be in their backfield so the list is by no means complete. There will be rookies coming in who have a shot to take some spots and also rookies from last year returning like Guice who I am ranking based on what I think they will do in the next season and beyond.

Savvy?

 
Like I said, I like Cook. Been trying to acquire him. 

But in no universe is he ranked ahead of Chubb for me. Chubb is top 5 dyno for me right now.

 
bryhamm said:
In a "keep 1 player" league, would you keep Kamara or Wentz?  non-ppr.  keep in mind, you can have said player forever if you keep freezing them.
Without hesitation Kamara. In fact in my longest term league we can choose to keep one player and declare him in round one. I have no one worth keeping as a fist round pick so I would enter the draft. One of my league mates has Kamara and Mahomes. Knowing this is a 6 point all TD league, he mentioned he wanted to keep Mahomes and would lose Kamara. I jumped at the chance and offered him my 6th round pick in next seasonks draft for Kamara to be on my team and kept round one. Conversely, if he offered me Mahomes for that I’d have said no even with the 6 point TDs. 

 
I think that besides being injured Dalvin Cook has also been misused by former OC DeFlippo and that Cook should and will get more opportunity as we have been seeing since DeFlippo was fired. Mike ZImmer has made it very clear through word and deed that this is what he wants.

Since your friend is so interested in small sample sizes and giving credit to players who haven't had the opportunity to prove their talent yet, In the last two games Cook has 20 and 19 touches after DeFlippo was fired. Prior to that Cook averaged 12.3 touches per game this season besides missing 5 games to injury, with some of those games Cook still recovering from injury and being on a snap count. Cook has averaged 100 combined yards per game since Flip was let go and that is what he was averaging last year before he was injured.

The Vikings offensive line still sucks, but Cook is great.

I consider the RB ranked near Cook to all be the same tier. He certainly hasn't proven more than Melvin Gordon for example, but he is younger and my ranking is based on the careers they will have going forward more than what they have accomplished thus far.

As I mentioned several teams up in the air right now as far as who is going to be in their backfield so the list is by no means complete. There will be rookies coming in who have a shot to take some spots and also rookies from last year returning like Guice who I am ranking based on what I think they will do in the next season and beyond.

Savvy?
I watched an awful lot of both this year when given the chance. If it’s PPR, hands down I’m taking Cook. He could be ”Kamaraesque.”

In standard it’s a lot closer. But when I watch Cook I see a lot of blazing speed and skill. Chubb—and correct me if I’m wrong—does look good but seemed to hammer on some pretty bad teams. He did not impress at all in his week 15 and 16 games except for one long run in each. He got 100 by accumulating a lot of carries. If Cook gets near the same amount of carries next year, I think he potentially blows the doors off Chubb. 

 
. He did not impress at all in his week 15 and 16 games except for one long run in each. He got 100 by accumulating a lot of carries. If Cook gets near the same amount of carries next year, I think he potentially blows the doors off Chubb. 
Chubb had 20 carries v DEN for 100yds and 19 for 112 v CIN in weeks 15 and 16. 

 
I watched an awful lot of both this year when given the chance. If it’s PPR, hands down I’m taking Cook. He could be ”Kamaraesque.”

In standard it’s a lot closer. But when I watch Cook I see a lot of blazing speed and skill. Chubb—and correct me if I’m wrong—does look good but seemed to hammer on some pretty bad teams. He did not impress at all in his week 15 and 16 games except for one long run in each. He got 100 by accumulating a lot of carries. If Cook gets near the same amount of carries next year, I think he potentially blows the doors off Chubb. 
Ok, I'll correct you. Yes, he got 19 and 20 carries, but he averaged 5.4 ypc. Chubb is crushing yards after contact (another link) and has breakaway speed. I'm not someone who will flip out about taking a long run away, but I do try to use context. Chubb is a guy who is going to put at least one long run per game, so you might as well bake that into your ypc expectations for him. He's also show some impressive hands this year. And saying you saw blazing speed from Cook, but not Chubb?  :lmao:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0tCD9fknUo

Since I play auction, it's not about identifying the top 3 RB picks for next year, it's more about identifying the guys that could slip into the top 3 at a big discount from the top 3. To me, Chubb is a top candidate. If Baker gets a little better and the OL gets a little better (big opportunity for improvement at both tackles) then Chubb could blow up. The guy is a rare combo of a goal line hammer and a breakaway threat.

I'm not saying Dalvin is a scrub. When he came back from injury he averaged 5.6 ypc (only 86 carries, but still). I just can't fathom ranking him above Chubb after what we've seen out of Chubb in a weaker offense. If one offense was to make a gap up next year, I'd say it is Cleveland. Minnesota is what it is at this point. And Cleveland is projected to be 4th in cap space while Minnesota is projected to be 30th. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2019/

 
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First time I have ever seen this stated about Cook. Maybe your definition of blazing speed is different than the norm...
Heh. It’s what makes these kind of naval gazing posts fun. Who the hells knows how the backs will rank next year. But I like diversity of opinions. Most of all, I ultimately go by what my eyes tell me. I like Cook more but that’s just me. I see shades of CJ2K and with Chubb I see a better Jordan Howard circa 2017. I’m fine with 90% of you thinking I’m nuts. But I’ll tell you this much, my long time 10team league which is standard, I’m projecting both and Chubb and cook to make it to about pick 11-13. I’ll likely have a shot at either the way our draft is set up and if it were today, I’d pick Cook. 

Outside his last two games of getting 100 yards against the 20th and 29th ranked rush defenses, his only 100 plus yard game was when he demolished the awful falcons. Other than that, he didn’t pile up a lot of yards and needed TDs to have decent numbers. And I agree, he did have decent numbers. But philosophically I go for guys that will pile up yards since I know TDS are way harder to predict. Hell you’ve got people screaming on here how Mayfield stole all his Td opportunities last couple weeks.

In the league I’m taking about it’s standard with 5points for 100 yards. Cook out scored Chubb for weeks 15-16 41 to 31 mostly on racking up yards through ground and air. And he a BS call take another score away from him last week. I like the kid and don’t think Biaka is being a homer by ranking him higher. Just my $.02

 
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bryhamm said:
In a "keep 1 player" league, would you keep Kamara or Wentz?  non-ppr.  keep in mind, you can have said player forever if you keep freezing them.
No offense but this is an awful question and not even relevant to the discussion, lol. If it were Mahomes maaaybe I could see it but this requires zero thought. 

 
I watched an awful lot of both this year when given the chance. If it’s PPR, hands down I’m taking Cook. He could be ”Kamaraesque.”

In standard it’s a lot closer. But when I watch Cook I see a lot of blazing speed and skill. Chubb—and correct me if I’m wrong—does look good but seemed to hammer on some pretty bad teams. He did not impress at all in his week 15 and 16 games except for one long run in each. He got 100 by accumulating a lot of carries. If Cook gets near the same amount of carries next year, I think he potentially blows the doors off Chubb. 
I haven't seen as much of Chubb this year as I have Cook. So hard for me to compare them.

I do think Cook was a better college prospect than Chubb and although he has been hurt, when healthy he has shown his game translates to the next level. It is just a matter of him staying healthy and hopefully some improvement from offensive line play in 2019 from the draft or free agency.

The players are close enough that I would be pretty happy with any of them. I think there is a tier break after David Johnson, but I think Chubb has done enough that he belongs there. I don't see coaching changes affecting Chubb as the front office fired Hue basically because they wanted the team to play Chubb more. The Browns are on the rise and Chubb should be the focal point of their offense next season.

 
First time I have ever seen this stated about Cook. Maybe your definition of blazing speed is different than the norm...
At one point this year Cook has the fasted timed speed by nextgen stats FWIW.

According to this Matt Breida had a run that was nano seconds faster.

He is very fast as well as possessing a lot of other excellent traits. He is really the whole package. He is actually more powerful than Murray on short yardage, stronger legs, better pad level,  but isn't used for that often.

 
I got Gurley  as easy clear cut top RB  and if he is not in your top 3 you are overthinking things. Where it gets harder is trying to pick 2 out of 3 between Elliot, CMC and Barkley with Kamara entering that mix depending on what Saints do with Ingram and RB additions if he leaves.

 
Put Hunt or Bell (heck, or even Ingram) on any of these teams and where would you rank them?
The team would matter a lot.

Put any of those 3 on KC or the Colts and likely in the top tier with David Johnson and the rest.

If they went to the Dolphins or something I am not as excited about it.

Where would you rank them?

 
Depending on landing spot I could see Bell sneaking into the top 3 in ppr next year. 

Or as a dark horse candidate based on a HC change (esp to an offensive background coach) David Johnson...but he’d need stupid passing game volume.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Cook was a better college prospect than Chubb?

Was this while Chubb was out with injury, cuz otherwise this is lunacy. 
Based on my charting of the RB performance at a college level.

I did not chart any games of Chubb prior to his injury for my sample of Chubb. In fact I charted 10 games of Chubb before I even found a really good game of his to move him up to a tier one prospect. Most of the other 2018 all did more than Chubb did in the what ended up being 12 games of Chubb's that I charted.

There  is nothing moon like about it. Watching both players at the college level Cook demonstrated more skill and ability than Chubb did period.

 
i clenched my chest as i read this. 

alas, we must end this here as we will never see eye to eye
What a player does in college does not mean that is what they are going to do as pros.

Cook hasn't been healthy for the majority of his first two seasons in the league. Chubb may very well end up being a better pro player.

It wasn't Chubbs fault that they were not throwing him the ball much in Georgia. He can catch the ball. I can't give him credit for catching the ball in charting though if he doesn't do it.

Cook pretty dynamic as a receiving option at the college level as well as being a very good runner. I have seen that demonstrated at the pro level as well. They should use Cook as a receiver more than they have.

There are a few ideas as far as player evaluation here. One is that the players are what they are and what they are at the college level is what they are going to be at the pro level. A lot of the time thats true. You can't make a leopard change its spots. But players are also used differently at the pro level than they are in college. They have better players around them at the pro level. Niche players can specialize and good coaches only have them do what they are good at. Players can improve over time as well. I expect most of them to or else they will lose their jobs to someone else if they don't.

The main reason I even consider the college performance is because I have seen 12 of those games and I haven't seen 12 Browns games this year. Maybe Chubb looks a lot better than I realize as a pro. I have only seen like maybe two Browns games this year. I have seen all the Vikings games and every play of Dalvin Cooks career so far.

The Vikings not exactly on the cutting edge of play calling or scheme on the offensive side of the ball. That is kind of what they hired DeFlippo to possibly be. He botched it badly. Stepnaski has been with the team for awhile and was the QB coach with Shurmur as well. I have seen some improvement

The Browns have a better offensive line than the Vikings do I think, even without Joe Thomas.

There are a lot of things to consider when making a ranking of players geared towards fantasy football performance than just the player himself.

If anything I have Chubb too high most likely with some incomplete information about him on my part. I know I thought Guice was a better RB than him and the only thing that has happened is Guice got hurt, Chubb shined.

 
i clenched my chest as i read this. 

alas, we must end this here as we will never see eye to eye
@Biabreakable is not out on a limb here. NFL draft profiles showed Cook with a 6.28 grade and Chubb with a 5.79, despite the fact that Chubb performed much better at the combine.

That said, Chubb's draft profile I linked was off base. For example:

  • "Chubb could become an average NFL starter, but his lack of third down value may end up hurting his draft stock." That perception may indeed have hurt his draft stock, but his play on the field suggests that it was a misperception.
  • "Doesn't possess run-away speed." The fact that he has 14 carries of 15+ yards (#5 in NFL), which is 7.7% of his carries (#7 in NFL) suggests that either this was a misperception or that "run-away speed" doesn't actually matter.
  • "I thought he was special before he tore up his knee. I don't see special anymore but I do see a solid runner." It may very well be true that he is not as "special" as he was before the injury, but I would say he has already shown he is more than just a "solid runner."
Clearly we are beyond the point where how these guys measured up as draft prospects matters, since we are now able to compare them based on NFL on field results. I don't dislike Cook at all, but I would absolutely prefer Chubb and would rank him higher in any ranking, dynasty or redraft, PPR or non-PPR.

 
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