Yudkin RB rankings (1 Viewer)

[salmonstud]

That's just mean, man. Mean.

Movie - Payback quote?

 

[Lord of Football]

David, you ranked McGahee at #8.

McGahee is the #1 threat on the Bills with not many other options. He's going to get the ball a ton, and guys that get the ball 350 times have a tough time NOT ranking in the Top 10.Hemay have several games of 22 carries and 55 yards . . . but he should also have some with 130 yards. He may struggle to score, but IMO he should get 8 TD and close to 1500 total yards on the season.

I had this idea to do a short correlation study between teams picking in the top 5 and their Rushing success the previous year.Why? I don't agree with your McGahee (and CT) rankings as being in the top 10. I think (nearly everyone on BUF, many on MIN) that both teams will be picking in the top 5 next year, because they both suck.Anyway, to make a long story short, you know how many of them had RBs that got 350 attempts? Not a damn one of them (I only went back 5 years because it's incredibly tedious, but you're more than welcome to go back further).You know how many posted top-10 RB numbers? Two, and both were named LaDainian Tomlinson.You know how many of those teams ranked even in the top-15 in attempts? Not a damn one of them.In fact, nearly all of them, believe it or not, finished near the bottom in every relevant statistical category for rushing and with their leading RB.One shouldn't find this hard to believe at all, since these teams are picking in the top 5....What I do find hard to believe is that you have two of your RBs ranked in the top-10 who are on garbage football teams, and who very likely will be picking in the top-5 next year.I'm not about to go look it up because I'm sick of looking at stats for today, but I wonder how many top-10 RBs have been on bottom-feeder teams?Also, only a handful of guys a year get 350+ attempts per year (and McGahee very barely cracked that last year).Anyway, I thought it was worth pointing out. May want to adjust your rankings for both guys. History is a pretty good predictor of the future, and for a guy who was routinely pulled in goal-line situations last year and failed to break the 4.0ypc mark (McGahee), to a guy who has never been a feature back and is being asked to do something he's never done before in pounding the rock up the middle (Taylor), I find it very, very hard to believe that either will be top-10 this year.

Are you talking touches or carries?

I believe the 350 number refers to total touches

 

[Justloveit]

Thanks for submitting your rankings, I like your work.

I was wondering if I could get some insight into your decision to put Randy Moss as your #1WR? I think we all agree he has the potential to do it however doesnt the last 2 seasons worry you as he has been constantly banged up?

 

[David Yudkin]

Thanks for submitting your rankings, I like your work.I was wondering if I could get some insight into your decision to put Randy Moss as your #1WR? I think we all agree he has the potential to do it however doesnt the last 2 seasons worry you as he has been constantly banged up?

IMO, all the top WR have some sort of issues . . .As I see it (and I certainly could be misreading things)Smith: Added Keyshawn, healthy RB corps (at least to start the season), suffocating defense = fewer looks for SMithCJ: ??? surrounding Palmer and how effective he'll beFitz/Boldin: ARI will not be throwing the ball 670 times, will have a more balanced attack, and theoretically will be a little better defensively spells more rushing, less passingHolt: New more balanced passing attackOwens: Should not see as many looks as in year's past and is always a walking time bombSMoss: Had almost all the WR production last year with almost no other options to speak of.A case can be made that RMoss when healthy is still the most talented receiver in the game. Brooks has been able to do well in the past with Horn, and IMO Moss is a ntch above Horn.Overall, I expect all of these guys to score very close to each other, and I don't see one of them standing out by leaps and bounds.

 

[Garrett]

I am not trying to critical, but curious if the situation in Detroit has changed over the last few weeks.

From the Kevin Jones faceoff, "Unless he's healthy, sees a significant increase in touches, or is dramatically more productive than he's been so far, Jones will struggle to rank in the Top 15 running backs."

So I guess my question would be, why does Kevin Jones get the free pass on his injury history, while Foster does not? I guess Foster's is a more pronounced issue (that is probably an understatement). Maybe I am answering my own question here.

It seems like Yudkin might end up with Jon Kitna, Kevin Jones, and Roy Williams in most drafts. Kind of boom or bust.

 

[David Yudkin]

I am not trying to critical, but curious if the situation in Detroit has changed over the last few weeks.From the Kevin Jones faceoff, "Unless he's healthy, sees a significant increase in touches, or is dramatically more productive than he's been so far, Jones will struggle to rank in the Top 15 running backs."So I guess my question would be, why does Kevin Jones get the free pass on his injury history, while Foster does not? I guess Foster's is a more pronounced issue (that is probably an understatement). Maybe I am answering my own question here.It seems like Yudkin might end up with Jon Kitna, Kevin Jones, and Roy Williams in most drafts. Kind of boom or bust.

All the things I wrote in the Faceoff about Jones are a decent case against him being a Top 15 pick. Similarly, I got assigned to write the low side of Chester Taylor, too (who I like better than Jones). Sometimes we have to write about guys that don't really line up with our individual perspective.As for KJ, the coaching staff has commented that they expect big things from him, that he's picking up the offense, and they hope to have him as a three down back (paraphrasing all of that). That all could be fluff, but I generally think coaches' comments have a bit more value than beat writers's comments.Overall, yes, I am buying into the Martz plan with regard to Kitna, Jones, and Williams. I have Kitna in one league and Jones in one or two leagues, but I haven't been in position to get Williams. (Sometimes draft position dictates who is available.)

 

[Justloveit]

David, I was wondering what factors helped you separate your projections for Steven Jackson and Ronnie Brown. I, like many guys here am tearing my hair out trying to decide which of these two I would take if I got the 6th pick (my league includes 0.5ppr). You have SJ at 6 and Brown at 10, I was wondering how you came to these rankings?

Thanks.

 

[David Yudkin]

David, I was wondering what factors helped you separate your projections for Steven Jackson and Ronnie Brown. I, like many guys here am tearing my hair out trying to decide which of these two I would take if I got the 6th pick (my league includes 0.5ppr). You have SJ at 6 and Brown at 10, I was wondering how you came to these rankings?Thanks.

IMO, Jackson has proven a little more than Brown has. Jackson started the year on a hot pace over the first half of the season, but once Bulger went down his numbers really suffered.We know that the Rams won't pass as much with Martz gone, so I suspect that Jackson will see the ball a fair amount more than in the past.It's tough to evaluate how either of these guys will hold up over the rigors of an intense workload over the course of a full season, but in my mind Jackson has shown a little more to date.The middle of the first round is a challenge again this year, as there are no sure things and the Jackson, Brown, Edge, Jordan or so picks are far from locks.

 

[David Yudkin]

More on McGahee . . .

From this week's Sporting News:

"New Bills offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild wants to use RB Willis McGahee more as a receiver and possibly line him up in the slot on occasion. McGahee, who often came out on third downs under the previous coaching staff, has good hands but needs to polish his route-running skills. Fairchild also wants to get McGahee the ball in space on sweeps, counters, and swing passes."

 

[Q-Bert]

Just a quick question regarding roy williams. I see you have him at #4, and that's very high IMO. You have him ranked over guys like holt and fitz. Just wondering what the reasoning is behind that high of a ranking. You think Martz will have that much of an impact on his numbers? Or do you think Kitna is the answer for the passing game? Just curious...

I'm wondering the same thing.

Great rankings overall. I am also very interested in hearing your thought process on Roy Williams.

 

[GDogg]

I like Chester Taylor this year, as well.

However, one word of caution for Taylor. Minnesota's new RB Coach is Eric Bieniemy. If his history of RB's is any indication, Taylor won't be getting the number of touches that OC Bevell predicts he will (more than 20 carries and 4-5 receptions/game).

At UCLA, Bieniemy routinely shuttled in 2-3 RB's for the 3 seasons he was there (Maurice Drew, Chris Markey and Khalil Bell last season). Prior to being the RB coach at UCLA, he was on Gary Barnett's staff at Colorado where he was Chris Brown's RB coach. While at Colorado, Bieniemy would shuttle in Bobby Purify, Brown, and Brian Calhoun. Bieniemy's philosophy is to have fresh RB's constantly in the game, which will keep the D on its heels.

Now, Bevell may be the one who decides who's in the game, but if Bieniemy is making the RB rotation decisions, which I expect he is, then Chester Taylor will get fewer touches than most #1 RB's. It won't be a full-blown RBBC, but Taylor's touches probably shouldn't be in line with what most #1 backs are projected to get.

Also, David, in which round and in leagues with how many teams were you getting Kevin Jones? Were you drafting him as your #2 back? Thanks in advance.

 

[David Yudkin]

Also, David, in which round and in leagues with how many teams were you getting Kevin Jones? Were you drafting him as your #2 back? Thanks in advance.

In a 12-team league that finsished a few weeks ago, I got Jones to be my RB2 after going SA at 1.03, RMoss at 2.10, and KJ at 3.03.

 

[Big Score]

Always interested in viewing your rankings Yudkin.

Good job & thanx

 

[GDogg]

Also, David, in which round and in leagues with how many teams were you getting Kevin Jones? Were you drafting him as your #2 back? Thanks in advance.

In a 12-team league that finsished a few weeks ago, I got Jones to be my RB2 after going SA at 1.03, RMoss at 2.10, and KJ at 3.03.

Great! Thanks.I got burned badly by Kevin Jones last season and am trying greatly not to let that influence my decision on him. That being said, he could really have a monster season this year with Martz at the helm.As long as the Lions D doesn't get torched this year, putting the Lions in a deep hole, Jones should see much more running room this year as teams will actually have to respect the pass. Roy Williams WILL get open and Kitna is good enough to get the ball to him.Plus, the Lions RB strength of schedule looks sweet.With another strong performance out Jones (and seeing him in on 3rd downs regularly), I'd almost be tempted to look at Jones in the mid-2nd.Thanks again for your thoughts.

 

[WildRover]

Interesting rankings, any chance you are going to update these before this weekend's drafts, or are you going to wait until this weekend's games are over?

 

[David Yudkin]

Interesting rankings, any chance you are going to update these before this weekend's drafts, or are you going to wait until this weekend's games are over?

I may take another pass before the weekend but probably nothing major will change. I should also be adding PK and DEF (and overall rnakings if I have time).

 

[Marc Levin]

I haven't done overall rankings in forever

I REALLY have to get on those - I think folks find overall rankings (where we rank players from different positions against each other) much more useful than anything else.

 

[one time]

Yudkin, I'm not a subscriber this year since I mainly just like looking at ranking and most rankings are going to be the same. However from subscribing before, I know you go out on a limb more and are correct more than not. I know a few people have been mentioned here but who hasnt been mentioned that you have higher or lower than regular projections? I wish I could see you rankings in full but I know that wouldnt fly here.

 

[WildRover]

The overall rankings are a waste of time I think. They are almost entirely dependant upon league scoring systems. If you have rankings for each position, you basically just apply your scoring sytem to come to overall rankings; everyone's league scoring is unique.

 

[capmeo]

Yudkin Great Stuff!

I draft this weekend, I have the 6th pick in a standard scoring league with 1 PPR. How would you rank these backs in a 1PPR league?

R.Brown

S.Jackson

L.Jordan

Thanks

 

[WildRover]

We can probably keep coming up with these random questions all night, so your going to have to lock the thread if gets old.

You are obviously down on Cadillac.

Is this soley because of Pittman's role/opportunity as a third down back/receiver?

 

[mbuehner]

Cadillac at RB16 when he was at 19 last season having missed 2 games? Thats a serious sophomore slump!

 

[David Yudkin]

We can probably keep coming up with these random questions all night, so your going to have to lock the thread if gets old.You are obviously down on Cadillac.Is this soley because of Pittman's role/opportunity as a third down back/receiver?

I understand that Cadillac worked on his receiving skills in the offseason . . . but there are several things that make me wonder about him.He still has Alstott around as a threat to steal goal line TD. Pittman has also proven to be a receiving threat out of the backfield. Caddy certainly did not put up great receiving numbers last year (so there is room for improvement).Caddy had 310 touches last year, so I am hard pressed to allocate a lot more touches to him. Sure, he did miss some time, but I am not convinced that the Bucs will continue to give him the workload that they did last year. In short, I think they don't give him 25-30 carries too often to keep him fresh and keep him on the field. He got the ball quite a bit but did not score very often, and I'm torn as to if that was due to coincidence or due to the RB rotation. Of course, there is always an injury risk (which did not really enter into my ranking too much).IMO, his upside this year (until he proves he can get more receptions for any amount of yardage) is Rudi Johnson with fewer TD provided he can get up to the 360-380 touch range. Certainly he hasn't shown that he can get up that high yet, seeing how he's only played one year.Also remember that the RB rankings in the mid teens are all very close scoring wise, so if one of the guys ranked just above him were to do a smidge worse and he did a smidge better he could jump up to say the RB 12 slot without his numbers being all that far off.

 

[gocats]

Thanks for all the hard work David

 

[dapunisher]

Have Yudkin's rankings been removed for updating? I'm no longer seeing them on the site.

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't see them either. Will see what's up.

 

[elshagon]

I see them now. Bold predictions in some cases, overall I agree with a lot of your rankings. I'm wondering why you're still so high on Portis?

 

[David Yudkin]

I see them now. Bold predictions in some cases, overall I agree with a lot of your rankings. I'm wondering why you're still so high on Portis?

I got them back up by resubmitting my old ones (which need some massaging). I'm not as down as others on Portis, especially with Gibbs saying he should be in the lineup in Week 1.

 

[wraith5]

I see them now. Bold predictions in some cases, overall I agree with a lot of your rankings. I'm wondering why you're still so high on Portis?

I got them back up by resubmitting my old ones (which need some massaging). I'm not as down as others on Portis, especially with Gibbs saying he should be in the lineup in Week 1.

So we can look forward to your updated rankings soon for RB's? Edited to add:

 

[David Yudkin]

I see them now. Bold predictions in some cases, overall I agree with a lot of your rankings. I'm wondering why you're still so high on Portis?

I got them back up by resubmitting my old ones (which need some massaging). I'm not as down as others on Portis, especially with Gibbs saying he should be in the lineup in Week 1.

So we can look forward to your updated rankings soon for RB's? Edited to add:

They aren't going to change all that much, but I'll take a look at them again.