Yudkins Rankings (1 Viewer)

[ImTheScientist]

I will be the first to admit that what happen to these guys has no bearing whatsoever on MJD this season. I've already outlined why I think MJD will not do as well as others have predicted. The 06 Jags RBs totalled 423.9 fantasy poionts. The 05 RBs totalled 287.6. I happen to think that the 07 version will be closer to the 05 totals than the 06 ones.

The '05 totals don't include MJD.Are you really comparing a running attack with hurt Fred Taylor and Alvin Pearman/Greg Jones vs one with a healthy Taylor and MJD?

Joe T .... it is ok to be wrong... you make no sense in most your logic. Yudkin has gone over MJD plenty this year.

this isn't even English.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those clamoring about the difference in RANKINGS, last year there was about 20 points seperating the #10 RB from the #23 RB. In his 14 healthy games last year, Taylor averaged 12.2 fantasy ppg. Give him another 24 points for the almost two full games he missed and he'd have ranked 10th. Deduct the production that MJD had while Taylor was out and he would have ranked where Taylor did (18th). There is very little scoring difference for a lot of the low end fantasy RB1s and high to mid range RB2s. Two fewer TDs could drop someone TEN SPOTS in the rankings . . . just look at the yearend totals from last year for justification of that.

Maybe Taylor is on his way out. Maybe Taylor will get another injury that will keep him out of action. Maybe the Jags paid Taylor all the money they just gave him to play seond fiddle to MJD. These things all could happen. Here's a recent blurb on the situation from Jaguars.com . . .

LINK

Fred Taylor, of course, is the team’s featured running back. Jones-Drew is Taylor’s complement and the two came within 69 yards last season of becoming only the fifth pair in NFL history to each rush for 1,000 yards in a season.

Taylor had one of his best seasons last year. His 1,146 yards rushing came at a 5.0 yards-per-carry clip, and Jones-Drew’s presence was a big factor in Taylor still having fresh legs late in the season. In the “senior years” of his career, Taylor welcomes the help. Sharing the load should help extend his career.

“When Fred’s time comes, I’ll be ready to take over,” Jones-Drew said.

Being ready at all times is something in which Jones-Drew prides himself. He also shared time at UCLA, which was probably the product of his diminutive size. A guy who’s 5-7 isn’t supposed to be durable enough to carry the load.

“It’s hard to get into a rhythm,” he said of having to come off the bench for a few carries here and there. “You have to make plays right away. That’s what I learned at UCLA. It helped me out.”

I don't see at this point that much has changed and I don't see that as a changing of the guard.

 

[David Yudkin]

What I keep coming back to is how a player like Maroney is rated higher than MJD?Yudkin has the lowest ranking of MJD of any of the FBG staff so he clearly doesn't like the guy. I'm okay with that. There are guys I don't like as well. FBG staff has MJD at an average of RB 14 which is about where I have him.I owned both MJD and Maroney last year and watched them both a ton because of this. I love both players, but I'm still at a loss as to how you can rank Maroney above MJD. When you look at their numbers, MJD crushes Maroney. When you watch the damn games, you see that MJD is simply a better runner and more talented than Maroney. The only thing Maroney may be better at than MJD is that he might have slightly better speed. MJD has better cut backs, better power, and an absolute ton more ability to break tackles.MJD's negative is that he is not listed as the starter. Fred Taylor is going into his 10th year as a running back. Expecting his number of carries or his production to increase is a huge leap. He's not Tiki Barber.I'll be honest, I might be higher on Maroney if he switches teams/places with MJD. I think MJD is in the better situation by not having to carry the ball 250+ times this year and be put at a higher injury risk.If Maroney is able to carry the load for NE and give them 250+ carries and roughly 300 touches, he will likely end up with similar numbers to where MJD will finish. But I don't see Maroney carrying that type of load this year.

Who else does NE have at RB to run the ball? Morris? Faulk? Evans? Harrison? He will CLEARLY get the largest slice of the RB pie ***IF*** he's healthy.Now look at JAX . . . TAYLOR will still be the one getting the majority of the RB carries. And I don't see the Jags having the firepower to give MJD the same scoring opportunities the Pats will for Maroney. Do you project the Jags to score as much as the Patriots this year? If so, then book the Jags going deep in the playoffs.

 

[ImTheScientist]

What I keep coming back to is how a player like Maroney is rated higher than MJD?

Yudkin has the lowest ranking of MJD of any of the FBG staff so he clearly doesn't like the guy. I'm okay with that. There are guys I don't like as well. FBG staff has MJD at an average of RB 14 which is about where I have him.

I owned both MJD and Maroney last year and watched them both a ton because of this. I love both players, but I'm still at a loss as to how you can rank Maroney above MJD. When you look at their numbers, MJD crushes Maroney. When you watch the damn games, you see that MJD is simply a better runner and more talented than Maroney. The only thing Maroney may be better at than MJD is that he might have slightly better speed. MJD has better cut backs, better power, and an absolute ton more ability to break tackles.

MJD's negative is that he is not listed as the starter. Fred Taylor is going into his 10th year as a running back. Expecting his number of carries or his production to increase is a huge leap. He's not Tiki Barber.

I'll be honest, I might be higher on Maroney if he switches teams/places with MJD. I think MJD is in the better situation by not having to carry the ball 250+ times this year and be put at a higher injury risk.

If Maroney is able to carry the load for NE and give them 250+ carries and roughly 300 touches, he will likely end up with similar numbers to where MJD will finish. But I don't see Maroney carrying that type of load this year.

Yudkin has the lowest ranking of MJD of any of the FBG staff so he clearly doesn't like the guy.

Where does Yudkin say that

I'll be honest, I might be higher on Maroney if he switches teams/places with MJD.

How would you be higher on a player when they would recieve less carries? Do you think Jax is a better situation than NE?

If Maroney is able to carry the load for NE and give them 250+ carries and roughly 300 touches, he will likely end up with similar numbers to where MJD will finish.

Please show your current Maroney/MJD projections....I would be very interested

 

[Joe T]

Who else does NE have at RB to run the ball? Morris? Faulk? Evans? Harrison? He will CLEARLY get the largest slice of the RB pie ***IF*** he's healthy.Now look at JAX . . . TAYLOR will still be the one getting the majority of the RB carries. And I don't see the Jags having the firepower to give MJD the same scoring opportunities the Pats will for Maroney. Do you project the Jags to score as much as the Patriots this year? If so, then book the Jags going deep in the playoffs.

Who else did you see getting carries for Miami in '06?This same argument was had over Ronnie Brown last year."He's going to get all the carries. He's going to be a top 10 back."That's not enough. You have to be good enough to produce and you have to be durable enough to carry that much of the load. These are two huge questions for Maroney.I like the fact that MJD is behind Taylor in the lineup and is in the exact same position as last year. I know what I'm getting from him. Bottom line is that MJD is a better runner. No one wants to argue that point I guess.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Who else does NE have at RB to run the ball? Morris? Faulk? Evans? Harrison? He will CLEARLY get the largest slice of the RB pie ***IF*** he's healthy.

Now look at JAX . . . TAYLOR will still be the one getting the majority of the RB carries. And I don't see the Jags having the firepower to give MJD the same scoring opportunities the Pats will for Maroney. Do you project the Jags to score as much as the Patriots this year? If so, then book the Jags going deep in the playoffs.

Who else did you see getting carries for Miami in '06?This same argument was had over Ronnie Brown last year.

"He's going to get all the carries. He's going to be a top 10 back."

That's not enough. You have to be good enough to produce and you have to be durable enough to carry that much of the load. These are two huge questions for Maroney.

I like the fact that MJD is behind Taylor in the lineup and is in the exact same position as last year. I know what I'm getting from him. Bottom line is that MJD is a better runner. No one wants to argue that point I guess.

NE= 24.1 points per gameMia= 16.2 points per game

 

[David Yudkin]

For starters, I have never been high on Brown so that really does not make for a great comparison. But since you brought him up . . .

The Dolphins offense, OL, QB play, play calling, etc. were lacking last year. Comparing their offense to the Patriots offense makes very little sense. The Pats offense scored twice as many TD as Miami did last year, so a Maroney/Brown comparison is a bit offbase.

The Patriots brass seems to think Maroney can handle things because they did not really sign anyone of note to take muuch of the workload away from Maroney. I'm not a huge fane of Maroney's this year (as we have outlined in other threads) and I don't see him vaulting in to the Top 5 either.

If MJD were the clear starter in JAX, I'd easily stick him in the middle of the Top 10. And if MJD were the clear starter in NE I'd do the same thing. But he's not either of those.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

DY,

For my part I just find it absurd that a back that has shown how absolutely explosive, powerful and just a down right game breaker, who puts up the numbers MJD in his rookie year is ranked where he is.

"If Taylor did not have the injury history he does people would be pimping him like there's no tomorrow."

Facts about Taylor

#1 - In 9 seasons he has had 2 years where he played in all 16 games

#2 - He is over 30 years of age, read a recent Pat Kirwan article on NFL.com about RB's at this age

#3 - He hasn't had double digit TDs in a season since 2000 !

And a couple of things you are missing. You have brought up MJDs long tds, however 11 of his tds scored were inside the opps 20 yard line. MJD also had more carries inside the opps 20 then Fragile Fred did.

I agree that MJD will not have as good as a season as he did last year, but I think it can be darn close that easily warrants him a better ranking then where you have him.

 

[David Yudkin]

By my math, Taylor just turned 31. Last year, a RB that scored 160 fantasy points would have ranked as the #25 RB. There have been 35 RBs age 31 or older that have scored that many points in a season. It's not like it's never happened. And I don't even have Taylor ranked in the Top 25 (although very close at 26th).

 

[Joe T]

For starters, I have never been high on Brown so that really does not make for a great comparison. But since you brought him up . . .The Dolphins offense, OL, QB play, play calling, etc. were lacking last year. Comparing their offense to the Patriots offense makes very little sense. The Pats offense scored twice as many TD as Miami did last year, so a Maroney/Brown comparison is a bit offbase.The Patriots brass seems to think Maroney can handle things because they did not really sign anyone of note to take muuch of the workload away from Maroney. I'm not a huge fane of Maroney's this year (as we have outlined in other threads) and I don't see him vaulting in to the Top 5 either.If MJD were the clear starter in JAX, I'd easily stick him in the middle of the Top 10. And if MJD were the clear starter in NE I'd do the same thing. But he's not either of those.

Agree. The Dolphins offense was terrible last year, but Brown was ranked highly in '06 based on what they did in '05, not what they did in '06. So the comparison is the '05 Dolphins vs the '06 Patriots. Still, I agree not a great comparison but that's the one that I'm trying to compare. I think it is similar because you are losing a big back (Ricky Williams/Corey Dillon) and giving the majority of the carries to an unproven guy. I will admit that the Patriots offense in '06 is far superior to the Dolphins of '05 which makes the comparison tougher. We are digressing though. If you and the others in here want to argue that Maroney is in a better situation by being the starter in NE because they have a great offense, I might disagree, but that is your point. I understand it and it is clear.My point is that, I'd prefer MJD because he had better numbers last year than Maroney, was a better runner last year, and because he is in the exact same scenario as last year I feel like I have a better handle on him being able to deliver what I'm projecting.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

By my math, Taylor just turned 31. Last year, a RB that scored 160 fantasy points would have ranked as the #25 RB. There have been 35 RBs age 31 or older that have scored that many points in a season. It's not like it's never happened. And I don't even have Taylor ranked in the Top 25 (although very close at 26th).

And how many of those RBs have the injury history Fred Taylor does? How many of them have missed 32 games in their career ? How many of these RBs have averaged 4 tds a season or less over their last 6 seasons ? C'mon DY, do you really think a coach like Del Rio (who could be on the hot seat), isn't going to make sure his 2nd year back who just put up monster numbers the year before, isn't going to see an increase in touches? You really think Del Rio is going to give Fred Taylor the same work load he did last year??

 

[David Yudkin]

By my math, Taylor just turned 31. Last year, a RB that scored 160 fantasy points would have ranked as the #25 RB. There have been 35 RBs age 31 or older that have scored that many points in a season. It's not like it's never happened. And I don't even have Taylor ranked in the Top 25 (although very close at 26th).

And how many of those RBs have the injury history Fred Taylor does? How many of them have missed 32 games in their career ? How many of these RBs have averaged 4 tds a season or less over their last 6 seasons ? C'mon DY, do you really think a coach like Del Rio (who could be on the hot seat), isn't going to make sure his 2nd year back who just put up monster numbers the year before, isn't going to see an increase in touches? You really think Del Rio is going to give Fred Taylor the same work load he did last year??

I've danced this dance in other threads.Based on my assertion (which easily could be wrong) that MJD falls back to a 4.5 ypc and scores a lot fewer TD. I even bumped up MJD to 200 carries and 50 receptions and still did not have him exploding like many others have.200-900/50-450/7 total TDAs has been discussed, JAX RBs have not scored many TD other than MJD last year. You can argue either side on that one. There will be those that say MJD already scored a ton of TD there's no reason to think he can't do it again. Or there's the argument that the Jags RBs haven't scored like that and MJD was an anomally.The Jags have been Top 5 in rushing attempts and Bottom 5 in passing attempts. If the team is serious about passing more often and establishing a viable passing attack, I can only conclude that they will not run the ball as often this year. Maybe they WON'T try to improve their passing totals, in which case maybe they will give MJD more looks.HOWEVER, in the games Leftwich has played he's averaged 313.3 passing attempts per game. That works out to 500 passing attemtps in a 16-game season (and he's another guy we could debate if he'll suit up each week). Last year the Jags had 446 passing attempts. If Leftwich is able to stay in the lineup I think by deafult they will run less regardless if they try to make big strides in the passing game.If I were to guess, I suspect we see more of a split like 2004 (514 passing attempts and 446 rushing attempts). That's 75 fewer rushing attempts and I'm not sure who would lose out if that were to happen.

 

[Z-Dog]

By my math, Taylor just turned 31. Last year, a RB that scored 160 fantasy points would have ranked as the #25 RB. There have been 35 RBs age 31 or older that have scored that many points in a season. It's not like it's never happened. And I don't even have Taylor ranked in the Top 25 (although very close at 26th).

And how many of those RBs have the injury history Fred Taylor does? How many of them have missed 32 games in their career ? How many of these RBs have averaged 4 tds a season or less over their last 6 seasons ? C'mon DY, do you really think a coach like Del Rio (who could be on the hot seat), isn't going to make sure his 2nd year back who just put up monster numbers the year before, isn't going to see an increase in touches? You really think Del Rio is going to give Fred Taylor the same work load he did last year??

Turn it around - Fred Taylor had a streak of 46 consecutive starts at one point in his career, and is the classic example of there being no such thing as injury-prone, only guys who are lucky and unlucky. Taylor also set a career high in yards per carry, and signed a big contract. What about the above makes it seem like he'll get fewer carries? If the Jags plan on giving Taylor less tahn 200 carries, why did they pay him? Why not sign a Dominic Rhodes for that sort of work?I think that it is silly to expect MJD to have more than 4.5-4.6 ypc. He might, but the point is to make projections that do not depend on outlying results. Fred Taylor might get injured, and sure, MJD gets a bit of a bump. But are you sure that he can shoulder a 250+ carry load at his size? Is it possible that the team will look at last season's performance by the RBs and pretty much leave well enough alone? The two backs came awfully close to making history, I'm not sure that Del Rio is looking for improvement from the RBs as from the other units to save his job.

 

[creeps1313]

Where can I find David Yudkins overall rankings? I only see his for each individual position...thanks!

 

[David Yudkin]

Where can I find David Yudkins overall rankings? I only see his for each individual position...thanks!

I have to submit a new batch of overall rankings, so at the moment you can't view any.

 

[lionsroar]

DY

Do you in any way envision Addai putting up youthful Edgelike numbers for Indy this year. Using the Maroney comparision, Indy did not do anything to replace D. Rhodes. My hunch is they feel Addai should enough as a rookie to handle the majority of the load. Also, love you work...

 

[switz]

Fitzgerald @ 13 Boldin @ 16I have posted in a ton of threads that the year both of these guys were Top 10 the Cardinals threw 670 passes. With Whisenhunt in town I doubt they sniff that total. I am guessing about 500 passes and 500 rushes even though Whisenhunt has said he wants 550-600 rushing attempts. Fitz has been 25% less productive with any QB other than Warner.

Although I expect Boldin to outperform Fitz by a large margin this season.

 

[David Yudkin]

DYDo you in any way envision Addai putting up youthful Edgelike numbers for Indy this year. Using the Maroney comparision, Indy did not do anything to replace D. Rhodes. My hunch is they feel Addai should enough as a rookie to handle the majority of the load. Also, love you work...

I doubt Addai will get the workload that Edge did because I don't see Dungy doing that to that extreme. (Mora was the coach when Edge came on board.) Edge had like 450 touches a year those first two years. I realize Edge got 400 touches a couple of seasons ago, but I don't think Addai will get that much work.I doubt any of the guys in this situation will get anywhere near the workload of two backs combined. (Addai + Rhodes, Manroney + Dillon, Benson and Jones, etc.).If I were to guess, the new featured back might get 75-80% of the production that the two backs had combined. last year, the Colts duo had 308 fantasy points, the Pats 308, and the Bears 278. So as a range maybe 200-250 points. That would make all three of these guys Top 10 backs if it worked out that way--but I don't think that it's automatic that the team will repeat the numbers it posted with two backs and that does not account for injuries either.Addai should be a Top 10 back and could approach the Top 5. He would need a pretty hefty workload and productivity level to make a run into the Top 2 or 3 though, as there is a lot of fantasy points between the 5 range and near the top.

 

[Banger]

Where can I find David Yudkins overall rankings? I only see his for each individual position...thanks!

I have to submit a new batch of overall rankings, so at the moment you can't view any.

bump...any ETA on your rankings? I often agree with your reasoning and looking forward to seeing your updated rankings.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I thought it was being worked on so you could see more than the 11 most recent updates...Yudkin's rankings are my favorites.

 

[One]

I can't imagine any NFL team using a player that is clearly the most explosive weapon on their offense... LESS.

I do wonder though where MJD would be ranked if his last name was Bush or was a 1st round draft pick.

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