ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (3 Viewers)

[thriftyrocker]

One of your best chances to get an elite TE is to go after the young prospects. 

I don't necessarily believe that. A few elite TE - and even more high level production - have come from opportunity plays and later career bounceback. Olsen, Walker, Rudolph, Barnidge, Julius Thomas. Going further I'd add Doyle, Brate, Miller, and Watson in NO. Add to that post-injury-scare Reed, Graham, and Pitta. There are cases where it's finding the right FA move. The right guy hanging on the end of the roster. The right new QB. The right something. 

Should we roster every TE drafted in the top 100 to an elite-era Brees team or elite-era Brady team? Yes. Really none of this year's prospects fall into that criteria though. If we're holding for a post-Delanie Titans why aren't we holding for a post-Witten Cowboys (you don't list Gathers at all)? If we're holding Shaheen why is Nick Vannett the next to the last name on your list (similar player, better team, taken in the mid 3rd the previous year)?

If you accept the premise there was a simpler criteria in wanting to pick "the guys BB picked for TB" or "the guy SP picked for DB" then why is Dwayne Allen an afterthought.

I think it is dumb to spend a 4th on a TE you have to hold for 2 years to find out if he is Rudolph (talking about Shaheen here) when you can get Mychal Rivera (also not listed) free on waivers and he might start this year. By the 4th we've figure out what TEs are good. It is better to use those picks on churn than holds. It's bad to get in the trap of holding Troy Niklas preventing you from picking up Gary Barnidge.

 

[-OZ-]

I don't necessarily believe that. A few elite TE - and even more high level production - have come from opportunity plays and later career bounceback. Olsen, Walker, Rudolph, Barnidge, Julius Thomas. Going further I'd add Doyle, Brate, Miller, and Watson in NO. Add to that post-injury-scare Reed, Graham, and Pitta. There are cases where it's finding the right FA move. The right guy hanging on the end of the roster. The right new QB. The right something. 

Should we roster every TE drafted in the top 100 to an elite-era Brees team or elite-era Brady team? Yes. Really none of this year's prospects fall into that criteria though. If we're holding for a post-Delanie Titans why aren't we holding for a post-Witten Cowboys (you don't list Gathers at all)? If we're holding Shaheen why is Nick Everett the next to the last name on your list (similar player, better team, taken in the mid 3rd the previous year)?

If you accept the premise there was a simpler criteria in wanting to pick "the guys BB picked for TB" or "the guy SP picked for DB" then why is Dwayne Allen an afterthought.

I think it is dumb to spend a 4th on a TE you have to hold for 2 years to find out if he is Rudolph (talking about Shaheen here) when you can get Mychal Rivera (also not listed) free on waivers and he might start this year. By the 4th we've figure out what TEs are good. It is better to use those picks on churn than holds. It's bad to get in the trap of holding Troy Niklas preventing you from picking up Gary Barnidge.

Your points are valid but imo also a good argument for your league using a taxi squad limited to first or second year players.  I have no problem keeping everett, butt, darboh, Malone, and zamora because they're on my taxi squad, I can't use them anyway, and those slots can't go to 4th year players.  Also they were fairly cheap to draft.  

But if your league has short benches and no taxi squad, your philosophy makes a lot of sense.  (Even if I'd still keep shaheen over rivera)

 

[ZWK]

I've been in 14x30 and 12x35 leagues where guys like Vance McDonald, Gavin Escobar, and Troy Niklas going back to Jared Cook were dropped during their first year or two. Sometimes as soon as September. While you may be in a deeper league, I don't think much deeper.

My point is that Zach Miller is getting dropped now. When injuries or byes hit, or if he has a TD week 1, then people will cycle the guys with little chance of helping for someone scoring points even if short term. You can get them for nothing, yes, but you can also get project TEs for nothing, because few people see the point in holding them.

I don't necessarily believe that. A few elite TE - and even more high level production - have come from opportunity plays and later career bounceback. Olsen, Walker, Rudolph, Barnidge, Julius Thomas. Going further I'd add Doyle, Brate, Miller, and Watson in NO. Add to that post-injury-scare Reed, Graham, and Pitta. There are cases where it's finding the right FA move. The right guy hanging on the end of the roster. The right new QB. The right something. 

Should we roster every TE drafted in the top 100 to an elite-era Brees team or elite-era Brady team? Yes. Really none of this year's prospects fall into that criteria though. If we're holding for a post-Delanie Titans why aren't we holding for a post-Witten Cowboys (you don't list Gathers at all)? If we're holding Shaheen why is Nick Everett the next to the last name on your list (similar player, better team, taken in the mid 3rd the previous year)?

If you accept the premise there was a simpler criteria in wanting to pick "the guys BB picked for TB" or "the guy SP picked for DB" then why is Dwayne Allen an afterthought.

I think it is dumb to spend a 4th on a TE you have to hold for 2 years to find out if he is Rudolph (talking about Shaheen here) when you can get Mychal Rivera (also not listed) free on waivers and he might start this year. By the 4th we've figure out what TEs are good. It is better to use those picks on churn than holds. It's bad to get in the trap of holding Troy Niklas preventing you from picking up Gary Barnidge.

McDonald, Escobar, and Niklas were all in unusually bad situations for a TE prospects, where they were unlikely to have opportunity to do much in their first couple years. McDonald was buried behind V Davis, Escobar was buried behind Witten, and Niklas was stuck in a Bruce Arians offense that doesn't throw to the TE often. That's why I avoided Escobar and McDonald as rookies, and Niklas too. (It may also be meaningful that none of those guys amounted to much, and that we generally didn't see guys like Kelce and Reed getting dropped.)

Depending on what you think about Delanie Walker that could give you a good reason to avoid Jonnu Smith. (Walker has been a strong starter and is signed through 2018, but he is turning 33 this year. Plus Tennessee is thin at WR and might run a lot of 2 TE sets.) I think it also gives good reason to avoid guys like Nick Vannett (behind Graham) and Rico Gathers (behind Witten, and also just a 6th rounder). But guys like Shaheen and Everett don't have those sort of blocks to production - if they're headed towards good careers then they'll probably show something within their first 2 years.

I also like the strategy of adding high-upside TE talent that is available for relatively cheap: Jordan Reed after his 2nd year when people were worried about injuries, Graham after his injury, Ebron right now, Fleener after his disappointing rookie year, Martellus Bennett when he left Dallas, etc. You can see that in the rankings that I've made over the years (and, in many cases, in the moves that I've made on my fantasy teams).

I do now think that I should have Fleener & Doyle ahead of Jonnu Smith, based on the upside that they get from their QBs plus their chances of having an immediate impact.

The hope with Shaheen is that he'll be better than Rudolph. Obviously it's worth trying to land the guy who will give you a career year like Julius Thomas 2013 or Gary Barnidge 2015, but it's more valuable to find the next Travis Kelce.

 

[ZWK]

Here are some RB rankings. 0.5 ppr, start 2, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from Sep 23 2015.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 24.5 (1)

1 2 Todd Gurley STL 22.1 (2)
3 3 David Johnson ARI 24.7 (25)
3 4 Devonta Freeman ATL 24.5 (29)

3 5 Jeremy Hill CIN 23.9 (4)

Talk about fall from grace.......Hill #5 RB last year to this year being worth ?

Looking back and seeing David Johnson last year was tier 3 RB was a shock.  Last year I think you had to have Bell, Gurley and David Johnson all in the same tier as of Jan 2016.  David Johnson was a beast to end 2015 and had all the makings of being a stud which is why he was being taken #1 RB in redraft over Gurley and a suspended Bell in redrafts last year.

This shows how fast things can change though Hill #5 RB to basically worthless in 1 year.

Ranking Hill that high was a mistake on my part, which I corrected to a large extent later that offseason. Though partly it was just a reflection of how weak RB was after the top 4 - someone had to be RB5, and if it wasn't Hill then the leading candidates were guys like Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram, Eddie Lacy, or Doug Martin. (Though my tier breaks were also in the wrong spots in January; I also moved those to more appropriate spots by May.)

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16 for the then-top-61, and from 1/11/16 for the rest.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    23.8    (1)
2    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    24.2    (4)
2    3    Sammy Watkins    BUF    23.2    (5)
2    4    Julio Jones    ATL    27.6    (2)
2    5    Antonio Brown    PIT    28.1    (3)
3    6    Allen Robinson    JAX    23.0    (7)
3    7    Amari Cooper    OAK    22.2    (9)
3    8    A.J. Green    CIN    28.1    (6)
3    9    Alshon Jeffery    CHI    26.5    (8)
4    10    Dez Bryant    DAL    27.8    (11)
4    11    Randall Cobb    GB    26.0    (12)
4    12    Mike Evans    TB    23.0    (14)

Wow this stands out huge for me looking back at this.  I never really followed this thread much over the years as you can assume based on all the comments I have had from the past but this one shocks me.  This is about the only place I seen Watkins rated over Evans going into last year but not only that the margin is huge.  I did a few startups last year and Evans went before Watkins in both barely but ahead of him in both.  The divide a year later now seems ginormous.  Evans is now a top 5 dyno player overall and Watkins is at the brink.

This was another one that I seem to have gotten wrong. I thought that Evans's second year resembled Kelvin Benjamin's rookie year in a lot of ways, and Watkins's 2015 season was only a step back from Beckham's rookie year.

I still like Watkins a lot (and I was able to trade for him during the 2016 season at prices that were a lot cheaper than a top 5 dynasty WR). And somehow I was unable to trade Mike Evans away last offseason in the league where I owned him, so I got away with underrating him.

 

[ZWK]

I'm coming around on Tyreek Hill and Willie Snead. Matt Harmon recently released his Reception Perception data on 50 NFL WRs (behind a paywall, unfortunately), and they were among the best at getting open reliably. They also both ran a relatively balanced route tree, and were successful at getting open on a wide range of routes and regardless of man/zone/press coverage. They did both run a lot of routes out of the slot, typically off the line of scrimmage, but that isn't a huge negative these days. And the fact that their teams let Cooks and Maclin go is a positive both for getting them more opportunities this year, and as a sign of the confidence that their teams have in them.

I am at least going to be moving each of them up a tier from where I've had them ranked.

Another interesting stat from Harmon's data - here are the 6 WRs who were double covered on at least 10% of their charted routes: Mike Evans, Dez Bryant, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, and Antonio Brown. Basically a who's-who of the best traditional #1 WRs.

There are also some interesting names among the WRs who were double covered on less than 5% of their charted routes, including Terrelle Pryor, Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Allen Robinson, Kelvin Benjamin, and Sammy Watkins. Possibly a sign that defensive coordinators weren't that worried about them?

Though it's worth noting that Harmon only charted a handful of games for each player (I think 6 games) so these numbers might be influenced by which games Harmon chose to chart (e.g., Pryor might have drawn more double coverage later in the season, or there might have been some non-charted games where the defensive coordinator chose to scheme more aggressively and send more double teams at this receiver).

Looking at Harmon's data on college receivers from the past two draft classes, there are 3 WRs who were double covered on at least 10% of their charted routes: John Ross (2016 season), Taywan Taylor (2016 season), and Corey Davis (2016 season). Coming in under the 5% mark, among receivers drafted in the first 2 rounds: Michael Thomas (2015 season), Laquon Treadwell (2015 season), Will Fuller (2015 season), Tyler Boyd (2015 season), and Corey Coleman (2015 season).

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 2/3/17.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
10    120    Dontrelle Inman    SD    28.6    (78)
10    121    Ryan Switzer    DAL    22.8    rook
10    122    Eli Rogers    PIT    24.7    (89)
10    123    Devin Smith    NYJ    25.5    (90)
10    124    Justin Blackmon    JAX    27.6    (91)
10    125    Chris Conley    KC    24.9    (92)
10    126    DeAndre Smelter    SF    25.7    (94)
10    127    Trevor Davis    GB    24.2    (97)
10    128    Chris Moore    BAL    24.2    (98)
10    129    Jeff Janis    GB    26.2    (100)
10    130    Cordarrelle Patterson    OAK    26.5    (102)
10    131    Jakeem Grant    MIA    24.8    (119)

More on the rookies in my other thread (in various places).

I noticed you dropped Browns 2nd year WR Ricardo Louis.  He was a 'surprise' starter last year after fellow rookie WR Corey Coleman went down with injury.  Louis continued to receive more playing time than Rashard Higgins and Jordan Payton.  He 'reportedly' has looked good in OTAs.

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2017/06/cleveland_browns_have_terry_ta_123.html

2. Veteran Kenny Britt is the Browns' only experienced receiver with some size. The coaches have been encouraged by how 6-foot-2 Ricardo Louis has performed in OTAs. He is a fourth-round pick (2016) from Auburn. He caught 18 passes last season. He still has a lot to learn in running routes, etc.

 

[ZWK]

I noticed you dropped Browns 2nd year WR Ricardo Louis.  He was a 'surprise' starter last year after fellow rookie WR Corey Coleman went down with injury.  Louis continued to receive more playing time than Rashard Higgins and Jordan Payton.  He 'reportedly' has looked good in OTAs.

http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2017/06/cleveland_browns_have_terry_ta_123.html

2. Veteran Kenny Britt is the Browns' only experienced receiver with some size. The coaches have been encouraged by how 6-foot-2 Ricardo Louis has performed in OTAs. He is a fourth-round pick (2016) from Auburn. He caught 18 passes last season. He still has a lot to learn in running routes, etc.

Louis was Cleveland's 4th WR last year - he played behind Pryor, Coleman, and Hawkins, and ahead of Higgins and Payton. Beating out Higgins and Payton is not that impressive, and getting beat out by Hawkins is a bad sign (none of Hawkins, Louis, Higgins, and Payton made my top 131 WRs). During the 6 game stretch that Coleman missed, Louis didn't do much with his opportunity (per game statline of 2.7/31/0, with 5.5 YPT). Once Coleman was back, over the second half of the season (week 9 onward) Louis had a grand total of 2 receptions (Higgins had 2, Payton 0, and Hawkins 11).

With Hawkins gone it looks like one of Louis, Higgins, or Payton will probably be Cleveland 3rd WR this year, and if one of them locks down that job then he'll probably crack my WR rankings. For now, I have Louis & Higgins lurking in the next batch of WRs (top 150 but not top 131).

That report on Louis from OTAs seems like pretty faint praise - "The coaches have been encouraged" is vague and only mildly positive, the only specific positive mentioned is his size (which we already knew about before he was drafted), and the blurb continues "He still has a lot to learn in running routes, etc." And the depth charts on Rotoworld list Higgins as the WR3.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Louis was Cleveland's 4th WR last year - he played behind Pryor, Coleman, and Hawkins, and ahead of Higgins and Payton. Beating out Higgins and Payton is not that impressive, and getting beat out by Hawkins is a bad sign (none of Hawkins, Louis, Higgins, and Payton made my top 131 WRs). During the 6 game stretch that Coleman missed, Louis didn't do much with his opportunity (per game statline of 2.7/31/0, with 5.5 YPT). Once Coleman was back, over the second half of the season (week 9 onward) Louis had a grand total of 2 receptions (Higgins had 2, Payton 0, and Hawkins 11).

With Hawkins gone it looks like one of Louis, Higgins, or Payton will probably be Cleveland 3rd WR this year, and if one of them locks down that job then he'll probably crack my WR rankings. For now, I have Louis & Higgins lurking in the next batch of WRs (top 150 but not top 131).

That report on Louis from OTAs seems like pretty faint praise - "The coaches have been encouraged" is vague and only mildly positive, the only specific positive mentioned is his size (which we already knew about before he was drafted), and the blurb continues "He still has a lot to learn in running routes, etc." And the depth charts on Rotoworld list Higgins as the WR3.

Last year Ricardo Lewis was the fourth WR behind:

1. Terrelle Pryor
   
2. Corey Coleman
   
3. Andrew Hawkins
   

And he moved in front of fellow rookies, Jordan Payton and Rashad Higgins.

Neither Higgins nor Payton supplanted Coleman when he went down with injury, the coaches liked Louis better.  

Hawkins is gone but the coaches kept him over fantasy darling Taylor Gabriel who they let go in favor of Hawkins so they liked him but he didn't deliver.

Corey Coleman's major problem last year was staying healthy enough to take the field and this year he has already been injured after falling on a ball and is out until training camp.

Terrelle Pryor is gone.

The only addition has been Kenny Britt. He is the only veteran WR and is slated to start.

Higgins is more suited for the slot, Even if he bulks up and earns a starting job, he won't be a threat to Louis.  Pryor was the #1 WR last year but the coaches were grooming Coleman for that role.  Corey is already injured in non-contact OTAs with no pads so someone is going to take those reps and it appears Ricado Lewis is that player.

If/when Coleman goes down again who will be suited for PT?  It certainly 'seems' like Ricardo Louis from the little we've heard from OTAs on the WR situation and from what we saw last year.

 

[ZWK]

Last year Ricardo Lewis was the fourth WR behind:

1. Terrelle Pryor
   
2. Corey Coleman
   
3. Andrew Hawkins
   

And he moved in front of fellow rookies, Jordan Payton and Rashad Higgins.

Neither Higgins nor Payton supplanted Coleman when he went down with injury, the coaches liked Louis better.  

Hawkins is gone but the coaches kept him over fantasy darling Taylor Gabriel who they let go in favor of Hawkins so they liked him but he didn't deliver.

Corey Coleman's major problem last year was staying healthy enough to take the field and this year he has already been injured after falling on a ball and is out until training camp.

Terrelle Pryor is gone.

The only addition has been Kenny Britt. He is the only veteran WR and is slated to start.

Higgins is more suited for the slot, Even if he bulks up and earns a starting job, he won't be a threat to Louis.  Pryor was the #1 WR last year but the coaches were grooming Coleman for that role.  Corey is already injured in non-contact OTAs with no pads so someone is going to take those reps and it appears Ricado Lewis is that player.

If/when Coleman goes down again who will be suited for PT?  It certainly 'seems' like Ricardo Louis from the little we've heard from OTAs on the WR situation and from what we saw last year.

This is mostly an analysis of Louis's redraft prospects (FBG has their take on that here).

For dynasty, the main question is whether Louis is any good; the intricacies of the Browns' 2017 depth chart is not essential. Is there something about Louis that makes you think that he has a good chance to develop into one of the 50 best WRs in the NFL?

 

[Slapdash]

I personally give the edge to Higgins just based on this FBG profile pic:  http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=HiggRa00&ref=s

 

[thriftyrocker]

Louis was a raw size/speed prospect. If he sees the field that is a positive regardless of the scenario. He had a lot to work on with both hands and route running so playing shows some reason to increase his value (coaches' confidence). This is a big difference from Jordan Payton who was supposed to be a polished, ready WR but low upside but didn't see the field really at all and then got a HGH suspension. I still think he is barely rosterable, but so are most of the people in that tier. You're hoping for a Chris Conley scenario, I wouldn't project any more than that.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

This is mostly an analysis of Louis's redraft prospects (FBG has their take on that here).

For dynasty, the main question is whether Louis is any good; the intricacies of the Browns' 2017 depth chart is not essential. Is there something about Louis that makes you think that he has a good chance to develop into one of the 50 best WRs in the NFL?

I never indicated that Louis would develop into one of the top 50 NFL WRs.  

I noticed that you dropped him from your list after consistently rating him in the 120 range of NFL WRs.

I see no reason to drop him from one of the top 130 NFL WRs and feel he will perform 'at-minimum' in the same range that he did last year and 'could' perform far better due to opportunity and increased targets.

 

[ZWK]

Louis (and 20+ other guys) fell out of my WR rankings between Feb and May because I added 25 rookies and decided to keep the total list at about 130 WRs rather than extending it to 155. I had Louis as WR123 in February, so after getting leapfrogged by 25 new rookies he should be around WR148.

Thrifty does have a good point that seeing the field at all is a good sign for a receiver who was considered raw & athletic - possibly he should be a bit ahead of guys like Chris Moore and Jakeem Grant.

 

[-OZ-]

Gotta love a thread where the 4th receiver in Cleveland gets this much attention.  

 

[thriftyrocker]

There's now a great article about Louis asking Brandon Marshall for help via Instagram.

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2017/06/brandon_marshall_to_work_with.html

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Is there something about Louis that makes you think that he has a good chance to develop into one of the 50 best WRs in the NFL?

I noticed he got 'some' ink in mini-camp hinted (to me) that the beat writers were picking up on something.

Since that time Lewis has gotten more ink from beat writers so I think they are getting a good vibe about Louis making an improvement this year.  I don't think Ricardo is going to be a fantasy stud but think he qualifies in the top 120 NFL WRs.

http://www.scout.com/nfl/browns/story/1784909-browns-hope-louis-is-young-wr-to-step-up

Browns hope Ricardo Louis is the young WR to step up

BEREA, Ohio--The Browns really need one of their second-year receivers to step up.

They lost their top receiver from a year ago, Terrelle Pryor, to free agency. They added veteran Kenny Britt as a free agent, but did not draft any wide receivers and are counting on the cast of receivers drafted in 2016, by and large, to be ready to contribute in 2017.

Ricardo Louis thinks he's ready to be that guy. 

“It is going really good," Louis said at minicamp. "I have definitely taken a step forward, commanding the offense a lot more, playing a lot faster, getting a lot more reps and just perfecting my craft."

...  Hue Jackson has been impressed with Louis. He was asked during minicamp if Louis has caught the coaching staff's attention with his improvement.

“He has," Jackson said. "Ricardo is a big, tall, athletic, fast guy and strong. He has really improved. He has improved his route running and improved his initial quickness off the line. I think he understands the National Football League game better. He has worked extremely hard. It is all relative right now.

...Louis was asked what area he feels he's improved the most in.

“This spring I’m coming off the ball a lot faster," Louis said. "I’m able to use my speed to scare the DB's. My route running is a lot more advanced than it was last year as far as changing directions, coming out of breaks and creating separation.

“I’m just a lot more confident in knowing what I have and command of the offense," he said. "I know the offense a lot more now than I did last year so once I hear the play and I know exactly what to do, I can play even faster because the DB doesn’t know what I am going to do so they can’t stop me.”  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't think Ricardo is going to be a fantasy stud but think he qualifies in the top 120 NFL WRs

It seems when we are talking about someone at or near the cutoff of WR120 (in either direction) it's really just personal preference and or "gut feel" anyway. It's hardly worth much of a debate. Positive articles like the one you posted are better than the alternative, of course, but fluff pieces are all the rage this time of year.

Not saying you are right or wrong here - just adding a little perspective.

 

[Biabreakable]

Any WR ranked after 96 is going to be below replacement level value (free agents available) for most leagues. In a 12 team league WR 120 would be a WR 10 (assuming fairly even distribution of WR among the teams).

In 16 team leagues where you may have flex options to start five WR it might start to matter more, in this case WR 120 would be a WR 7.5 (7th or 8th WR on a team) and would be above replacement level most likely.

For players this low I think you should be shooting for upside, because what you really want is a player who could crack into the top 50, although in deeper leagues cracking the top 80 might be enough.

At the time the Browns drafted these WR I considered Higgins the safer bet to become a productive player, but in retrospect Louis has more upside than Higgins if he did earn significant opportunities, so for ranking players this low I think it makes some sense to give more consideration for that, compared to consistency that matters a lot more for me in the top 50 or so WR.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

It seems when we are talking about someone at or near the cutoff of WR120 (in either direction) it's really just personal preference and or "gut feel" anyway. It's hardly worth much of a debate. Positive articles like the one you posted are better than the alternative, of course, but fluff pieces are all the rage this time of year.

Not saying you are right or wrong here - just adding a little perspective.

Not many WR rated low by the FF community get a spurt of stories on them even in the slow time leading up to camp as Louis is receiving.

Another one from a different source just came out that was linked from the Football Guys new page:

http://www.espn.com/blog/cleveland-browns/post/_/id/22382/improved-ricardo-louis-could-fill-browns-need-at-receiver
 

Improved Ricardo Louis could fill Browns' need at receiver

Ricardo Louis is a name to remember as the Cleveland Browns search for offensive impact players, especially at receiver...

Go to the link for the full story.

I don't recall this many stories on a guy from the beat writers that didn't at least lead up to a lot of opportunities for a WR in camp.

 

[voiceofunreason]

Not many WR rated low by the FF community get a spurt of stories on them even in the slow time leading up to camp as Louis is receiving.

Another one from a different source just came out that was linked from the Football Guys new page:

http://www.espn.com/blog/cleveland-browns/post/_/id/22382/improved-ricardo-louis-could-fill-browns-need-at-receiver
 

Go to the link for the full story.

I don't recall this many stories on a guy from the beat writers that didn't at least lead up to a lot of opportunities for a WR in camp.

Player threads.

 

[Ilov80s]

Talk about fall from grace.......Hill #5 RB last year to this year being worth ?

Looking back and seeing David Johnson last year was tier 3 RB was a shock.  Last year I think you had to have Bell, Gurley and David Johnson all in the same tier as of Jan 2016.  David Johnson was a beast to end 2015 and had all the makings of being a stud which is why he was being taken #1 RB in redraft over Gurley and a suspended Bell in redrafts last year.

This shows how fast things can change though Hill #5 RB to basically worthless in 1 year.

Think about this for a second

 

[Ilov80s]

If only he would have been idiot proof as well he could have been a great one.  

Looking back at rankings from past years and how fast they change (like Trent Richardson going from 1 to 14 in like two months to off the face of the earth in 2 years) tells you something.......not sure what but something.  Tells you this game is a stock market and you have to figure out which stocks to sell when high and which to buy when low.  All players are commodities and will just go up and down the list year to year, month to month during the season.  D-Adams is a good example was left for dead by many after last year and now is a prime draft pick in startups.  Guys like Calvin worth so much a few years ago up and retire and your left holding the bag.    The list goes on and on which makes this game so maddening.

It taught me to value years of production and consistency in the early rounds. Why take Jordan Howard when I could take Demarco Murray? I know Howard looked good last year and we love the potential unknown upside. We can't forget that unknown upside also comes with unknown downside. For every David Johnson that exceeds expectations, there is a CJ Anderson that falls on their face. Over the last 4 years, Murray has finished as RB: 1, 4, 7 and 18. We have a much more clear picture of what Murray's range is. Tyreek Hill is exciting, but we only have 1 data point on him. What we saw could have been the best case scenario for him. So you can take that risk with Hill or play it safer with a guy like Demaryius Thomas. We have seen Thomas in the best and worst possible QB situations. He has finished as WR: 1, 3, 5, 13 and 21. So taking Thomas is boring, it's also much more likely to hold value as the season goes on. 

Also, I try to pay attention ADP for the same players year to year. For example, TY Hilton is going at the 18th pick this season. He was the 32nd drafted player in 2016 and 24th in 2015. So you have to pay more for Hilton than what his track record has indicated he is worth. Drafters this year are buying high on him. Not counting his rookie year, Hilton has averaged 8.7, 8.9, 11.3 and 11.9 standard fantasy points per game. So, are drafters getting an 11 ppg guy or a 9 ppg guy? Either way, is that really worth the 18th pick in the draft? 

Hilton finished as WR5 last season and is being taken at WR8 so at first glance, it looks like a deal. What we need to account for is the abnormally low numbers amongst the top wide receivers in 2016. For example, AB led all WRs in 2016 with a 13.4 ppg. There were 6 WRs in 2015 that averaged more than 13.4 ppg 5 WRs in 2014 did it and 4 WRs in 2013. Simple statistics would predict that WR scoring likely rises in 2017. TY Hilton's 180 points made him WR5 in 2016, but here is where that would have finished in previous seasons: WR9, WR10, WR11, WR10. So I think a prediction with Hilton finishing as WR10-24 is most likely. So to me he isn't a deal. He's a very conservative pick and somewhat overpriced pick IMO. 

 

[ZWK]

It taught me to value years of production and consistency in the early rounds. Why take Jordan Howard when I could take Demarco Murray? I know Howard looked good last year and we love the potential unknown upside. We can't forget that unknown upside also comes with unknown downside. For every David Johnson that exceeds expectations, there is a CJ Anderson that falls on their face. Over the last 4 years, Murray has finished as RB: 1, 4, 7 and 18. We have a much more clear picture of what Murray's range is. Tyreek Hill is exciting, but we only have 1 data point on him. What we saw could have been the best case scenario for him. So you can take that risk with Hill or play it safer with a guy like Demaryius Thomas. We have seen Thomas in the best and worst possible QB situations. He has finished as WR: 1, 3, 5, 13 and 21. So taking Thomas is boring, it's also much more likely to hold value as the season goes on. 

Also, I try to pay attention ADP for the same players year to year. For example, TY Hilton is going at the 18th pick this season. He was the 32nd drafted player in 2016 and 24th in 2015. So you have to pay more for Hilton than what his track record has indicated he is worth. Drafters this year are buying high on him. Not counting his rookie year, Hilton has averaged 8.7, 8.9, 11.3 and 11.9 standard fantasy points per game. So, are drafters getting an 11 ppg guy or a 9 ppg guy? Either way, is that really worth the 18th pick in the draft? 

Hilton finished as WR5 last season and is being taken at WR8 so at first glance, it looks like a deal. What we need to account for is the abnormally low numbers amongst the top wide receivers in 2016. For example, AB led all WRs in 2016 with a 13.4 ppg. There were 6 WRs in 2015 that averaged more than 13.4 ppg 5 WRs in 2014 did it and 4 WRs in 2013. Simple statistics would predict that WR scoring likely rises in 2017. TY Hilton's 180 points made him WR5 in 2016, but here is where that would have finished in previous seasons: WR9, WR10, WR11, WR10. So I think a prediction with Hilton finishing as WR10-24 is most likely. So to me he isn't a deal. He's a very conservative pick and somewhat overpriced pick IMO. 

Veterans aren't particularly safe bets either, especially in dynasty. In the first post in this thread I had Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, and Marques Colston as top 20 WRs (which was in-line with how others were ranking them), and they all turned out to be pretty close to the end of the line. AJ & VJax each had 1 good season left, White & Colston each had 1-2 borderline startable fantasy seasons left, and Bowe didn't even have that.

Demaryius Thomas turned 29 last year, which means that he has already aged better than Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, or Miles Austin (who had their last good season at age 27 or 28). If he ages like Marques Colston then he's basically done; last year was his last good year. If he ages like VJax or Calvin Johnson then he has 1 more good season left. If he ages like Roddy White, Chad Johnson, or Torry Holt then he has 2 years left. If he ages like Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, or Randy Moss then he has 3 years left. If you're buying him in dynasty then you're hoping that he'll age like Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, or Terrell Owens.

DeMarco Murray is even farther along the aging curve, as a 29-year-old running back. Just over half of RBs who are good fantasy backs in their mid-20s don't have any fantasy value at age 29+. Shaun Alexander, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Willie Parker, and Reggie Bush all had their last good season at age 28; if you're going after Murray then you're taking a gamble that he won't join that group. If you see him as more than a one-year rental in dynasty, then you're also hoping that he won't turn out like Steven Jackson, Edgerrin James, Brian Westbrook, or Deuce McAllister, who had their last good season at age 29.

 

[Ilov80s]

Nobody is safe in fantasy football but players with multiple seasons  of success and who are within productive positional age ranges are safer than players with 1 or zero successful seasons. The longer someone is around, the more data we get and the more we can understand the player. Plus in dynasty, older players often come at a discount. If you look over time at yearly rankings, some names just repeatedly land high on the lists. Maybe I'll breakdown the numbers over the last x years to see what the correlation coefficient is. 

 

[-OZ-]

Nobody is safe in fantasy football but players with multiple seasons  of success and who are within productive positional age ranges are safer than players with 1 or zero successful seasons. The longer someone is around, the more data we get and the more we can understand the player. Plus in dynasty, older players often come at a discount. If you look over time at yearly rankings, some names just repeatedly land high on the lists. Maybe I'll breakdown the numbers over the last x years to see what the correlation coefficient is. 

It's just the ever present question of safety vs reward.  If you look back 5 years, the only receivers who were 27 or older who ended up being good picks in dyno were jordy, Fitz, and brandon Marshall. Meanwhile of the guys who hadn't been successful yet or had one good year, dez, Julio, aj green, demaryus thomas, and maclin all did well, with Harvin and nicks the only real busts.  Funny enough, the guys with two good years heading into 2012 didn't really pay off. Not sure what to make of that, maybe it's just a fluke of timing. 

 

[thriftyrocker]

It's just the ever present question of safety vs reward.  If you look back 5 years, the only receivers who were 27 or older who ended up being good picks in dyno were jordy, Fitz, and brandon Marshall. Meanwhile of the guys who hadn't been successful yet or had one good year, dez, Julio, aj green, demaryus thomas, and maclin all did well, with Harvin and nicks the only real busts.  Funny enough, the guys with two good years heading into 2012 didn't really pay off. Not sure what to make of that, maybe it's just a fluke of timing. 

If you say the rest weren't good picks, I think you're expecting too much. Most of the 27+ players on that list delivered. The list you quoted is a redraft list, so it's hard to interpret dynasty value from it. Pretty much every 27+ player on that list delivered at least 2 good years from 2012 on. Even older ones like Andre, Smiff, and Welker delivered. Andre was probably still a low WR1 at that time despite his age but he gave you 2 great seasons in 2012 and 2013. The only 27+ player on that list who busted was Greg Jennings. Calvin retired 4 years later but each of those 4 years was at least good and at best league winning. You could argue "but Julio would have been a better pick" but that is not far from saying "Antonio Brown would have been a better pick." Yeah sure but...

 

[Ilov80s]

Veterans aren't particularly safe bets either, especially in dynasty. In the first post in this thread I had Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, and Marques Colston as top 20 WRs (which was in-line with how others were ranking them), and they all turned out to be pretty close to the end of the line. AJ & VJax each had 1 good season left, White & Colston each had 1-2 borderline startable fantasy seasons left, and Bowe didn't even have that.

Demaryius Thomas turned 29 last year, which means that he has already aged better than Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, or Miles Austin (who had their last good season at age 27 or 28). If he ages like Marques Colston then he's basically done; last year was his last good year. If he ages like VJax or Calvin Johnson then he has 1 more good season left. If he ages like Roddy White, Chad Johnson, or Torry Holt then he has 2 years left. If he ages like Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, or Randy Moss then he has 3 years left. If you're buying him in dynasty then you're hoping that he'll age like Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, or Terrell Owens.

DeMarco Murray is even farther along the aging curve, as a 29-year-old running back. Just over half of RBs who are good fantasy backs in their mid-20s don't have any fantasy value at age 29+. Shaun Alexander, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Willie Parker, and Reggie Bush all had their last good season at age 28; if you're going after Murray then you're taking a gamble that he won't join that group. If you see him as more than a one-year rental in dynasty, then you're also hoping that he won't turn out like Steven Jackson, Edgerrin James, Brian Westbrook, or Deuce McAllister, who had their last good season at age 29.

It's just the ever present question of safety vs reward.  If you look back 5 years, the only receivers who were 27 or older who ended up being good picks in dyno were jordy, Fitz, and brandon Marshall. Meanwhile of the guys who hadn't been successful yet or had one good year, dez, Julio, aj green, demaryus thomas, and maclin all did well, with Harvin and nicks the only real busts.  Funny enough, the guys with two good years heading into 2012 didn't really pay off. Not sure what to make of that, maybe it's just a fluke of timing. 

So I quickly looked at the WRs (in standard because I'm a traditionalist and that is what I play) that averaged at least 10 ppg over the last 3 years. Yes, 10 is somewhat arbitrary, but isn't any number going to be? 

Over the last 3 years, there have been 32 different WRs to average at least 10 ppg. Of those 32 WRs, 22 of them have done it in multiple years of their careers. D. Adams, M.Thomas, AR15, Hopkins, Baldwin, Edelman, Ginn,Sammy Watkins, Hurns and Tate were the only WRs to have averaged 10 ppg only in one season. I will look more into previous years and other positions, but there does seem to be a potential connection between previous fantasy success and future success. 

Anyone have thoughts on how to improve this idea or links to completed research in this area?

 

[ZWK]

So I quickly looked at the WRs (in standard because I'm a traditionalist and that is what I play) that averaged at least 10 ppg over the last 3 years. Yes, 10 is somewhat arbitrary, but isn't any number going to be? 

Over the last 3 years, there have been 32 different WRs to average at least 10 ppg. Of those 32 WRs, 22 of them have done it in multiple years of their careers. D. Adams, M.Thomas, AR15, Hopkins, Baldwin, Edelman, Ginn,Sammy Watkins, Hurns and Tate were the only WRs to have averaged 10 ppg only in one season. I will look more into previous years and other positions, but there does seem to be a potential connection between previous fantasy success and future success. 

Anyone have thoughts on how to improve this idea or links to completed research in this area?

For dynasty, I think you'd want to do something sort of like the analysis that I did in this old thread (results in this graph) where I took all the WRs who were successful at age X and then looked at what they did over the rest of their career. For redraft, you could do something similar where you just look at what they did in their next season, at age X+1. (Other people have done similar sorts of analyses, with some differences in the details. IIRC Bruce Hammond, Adam Harstad, and Biabreakable have all done something like this, and I'm sure there are a bunch of others.)

 

[Ilov80s]

For dynasty, I think you'd want to do something sort of like the analysis that I did in this old thread (results in this graph) where I took all the WRs who were successful at age X and then looked at what they did over the rest of their career. For redraft, you could do something similar where you just look at what they did in their next season, at age X+1. (Other people have done similar sorts of analyses, with some differences in the details. IIRC Bruce Hammond, Adam Harstad, and Biabreakable have all done something like this, and I'm sure there are a bunch of others.)

Very cool, thanks. That seems like a great guide for valuing dynasty players. I guess I'm looking at with more of an eye to a startup or redraft. I'm curious about the reliability of finishes or the repeatability if you will. Each time a player has a good season, how does that impact the odds of him doing it again? Where does the pendulum swing the other way on them due to age? 

 

[ZWK]

Pre-season running back rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 5/2/17.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    David Johnson    ARI    25.7    (1)
1    2    LeVeon Bell    PIT    25.5    (3)
2    3    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    22.1    (2)
2    4    Todd Gurley    RAM    23.1    (5)
2    5    Leonard Fournette    JAX    22.6    (4)
2    6    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    21.2    (6)
2    7    Devonta Freeman    ATL    25.5    (8)
2    8    Melvin Gordon    LAC    24.4    (7)
3    9    Joe Mixon    CIN    21.1    (9)
3    10    Jay Ajayi    MIA    24.2    (12)
3    11    Jordan Howard    CHI    22.8    (10)
3    12    Dalvin Cook    MIN    22.1    (11)
4    13    Alvin Kamara    NO    22.1    (15)
4    14    Carlos Hyde    SF    25.9    (13)
4    15    Derrick Henry    TEN    23.1    (14)
4    16    LeSean McCoy    BUF    29.1    (17)
4    17    Ameer Abdullah    DET    24.2    (18)
4    18    Kareem Hunt    KC    22.1    (23)
4    19    Lamar Miller    HOU    26.4    (16)
5    20    Tevin Coleman    ATL    24.4    (19)
5    21    DeMarco Murray    TEN    29.5    (20)
5    22    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    24.6    (24)
5    23    C.J. Anderson    DEN    26.6    (21)
5    24    Mark Ingram    NO    27.7    (25)
5    25    Doug Martin    TB    28.6    (30)
5    26    Ty Montgomery    GB    24.6    (36)
5    27    C.J. Prosise    SEA    23.3    (22)
6    28    Theo Riddick    DET    26.3    (28)
6    29    Mike Gillislee    NE    26.8    (31)
6    30    Spencer Ware    KC    25.8    (27)
6    31    Marlon Mack    IND    21.7    (42)
6    32    Bilal Powell    NYJ    28.8    (58)
6    33    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (34)
6    34    Duke Johnson    CLE    23.9    (33)
6    35    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (26)
6    36    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (32)
6    37    D'Onta Foreman    HOU    21.4    (38)
6    38    Samaje Perine    WAS    22.0    (35)
6    39    Thomas Rawls    SEA    24.1    (41)
6    40    Rob Kelley    WAS    24.9    (45)
6    41    Eddie Lacy    SEA    27.2    (29)
6    42    Rex Burkhead    NE    27.2    (55)
6    43    Terrance West    BAL    26.6    (44)
6    44    James White    NE    25.6    (54)
6    45    Marshawn Lynch    OAK    31.4    (43)
6    46    Danny Woodhead    BAL    32.7    (76)
6    47    Jamaal Charles    DEN    30.7    (37)
6    48    Jamaal Williams    GB    22.4    (46)
6    49    Dion Lewis    NE    26.9    (40)
7    50    Latavius Murray    MIN    26.5    (39)
7    51    James Conner    PIT    22.3    (49)
7    52    Wayne Gallman    NYG    22.9    (47)
7    53    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.6    (48)
7    54    Adrian Peterson    NO    32.4    (52)
7    55    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    23.9    (50)
7    56    Frank Gore    IND    34.3    (59)
7    57    Tarik Cohen    CHI    22.1    (72)
7    58    DeAngelo Henderson    DEN    24.8    (93)
7    59    Chris Carson    SEA    23.0    (101)
7    60    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    30.4    (65)
7    61    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    23.6    (70)
7    62    Matt Breida    SF    22.5    unr
7    63    Kenyan Drake    MIA    23.6    (57)
7    64    Matt Forte    NYJ    31.7    (51)
7    65    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    25.3    (56)
7    66    Aaron Jones    GB    22.7    (66)
7    67    Devontae Booker    DEN    25.3    (60)
7    68    Javorius Allen    BAL    26.0    (97)
7    69    Darren McFadden    DAL    30.0    (95)
7    70    LeGarrette Blount    PHI    30.7    (84)
7    71    Shane Vereen    NYG    28.5    (64)
7    72    Matt Jones    IND    24.5    (77)
8    73    Elijah McGuire    NYJ    23.3    (85)
8    74    Charles Sims    TB    27.0    (63)
8    75    DeAndre Washington    OAK    24.5    (69)
8    76    Jalen Richard    OAK    23.9    (67)
8    77    Chris Thompson    WAS    26.9    (68)
8    78    Darren Sproles    PHI    34.2    (74)
8    79    Jacquizz Rodgers    TB    27.6    (80)
8    80    Charcandrick West    KC    26.3    (96)
8    81    Malcolm Brown    RAM    24.3    (94)
8    82    Brian Hill    ATL    21.8    (79)
8    83    Donnel Pumphrey    PHI    22.7    (73)
8    84    Zach Zenner    DET    26.0    (75)
8    85    Devante Mays    GB    23.3    unr
8    86    Alfred Morris    DAL    28.7    (99)
8    87    Robert Turbin    IND    27.7    (83)
8    88    Chris Ivory    JAX    29.4    (82)
8    89    Jonathan Williams        23.6    (71)
8    90    Kerwynn Williams    ARI    26.2    unr
8    91    Joe Williams    SF    24.0    (61)
9    92    Ryan Mathews        29.9    (78)
9    93    Andre Ellington    ARI    28.6    (130)
9    94    Benny Cunningham    CHI    27.2    (86)
9    95    Tyler Ervin    HOU    23.9    (90)
9    96    DeAngelo Williams        34.4    (87)
9    97    Rashad Jennings        32.4    (88)
9    98    T.J. Logan    ARI    23.0    (92)
9    99    Karlos Williams        24.3    (53)
9    100    Christine Michael        26.8    (81)
9    101    Elijah Hood    OAK    21.4    (100)
9    102    Dwayne Washington    DET    23.4    (102)
9    103    Alfred Blue    HOU    26.3    (103)
9    104    Lance Dunbar    RAM    27.6    (105)

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Awesome to see this updated!  Thx!

Spencer Ware at 30 seems way too high.  I would put him in the mid-50s at best.

 

[bigmarc27]

A few minor nitpicks, but I like D'onte Foreman way better than the 37th RB.  I like him more than all 10 of the guys in front of him and I own a few of those (Procise, Gillislee, Perkins). 

 

[ZWK]

@bigmarc27 Do you like Foreman based on his offseason, or did you feel the same way right after the draft? I have Foreman basically where I had him in May. He made some nice plays in the preseason games but didn't manage to move up the depth chart, so I don't want to read too much into a couple of plays against guys who are now unemployed.

@Alex P Keaton You're probably right that 30 is too high for Ware. I do think he's in the right tier; he seems like a starting-caliber back and has a decent shot at regaining that role in 2018 or 2019.

 

[bigmarc27]

@bigmarc27 Do you like Foreman based on his offseason, or did you feel the same way right after the draft? I have Foreman basically where I had him in May. He made some nice plays in the preseason games but didn't manage to move up the depth chart, so I don't want to read too much into a couple of plays against guys who are now unemployed.

@Alex P Keaton You're probably right that 30 is too high for Ware. I do think he's in the right tier; he seems like a starting-caliber back and has a decent shot at regaining that role in 2018 or 2019.

I had him higher to begin with, but the offseason + lack of faith in Miller have helped as well.  I'm a Falcoms fan and when I see the guy run all I can think of is Michael Turner.  

 

[ZWK]

Compared to DLF/FBG consensus, I seem to be higher on Kamara, Marlon Mack, Terrance West, Tarik Cohen, DeAngelo Henderson, Matt Breida, Javorius Allen, Malcolm Brown, and Devante Mays. I am relatively down on Adrian Peterson, LeGarrette Blount, Charles Sims, DeAndre Washington, and Ryan Mathews.

With Peterson, Blount, T West, and J Allen, I think it's mostly just that I have different redraft rankings than other people (plus I think that West at least has some future value). With Sims & Washington I'm pessimistic about their upside. With most of the young potential breakout guys, part of the gap is probably just that other people haven't updated their rankings as recently (although I did only look at the ones from the past few days). With Kamara I'm just a big fanboy.

Comparing my current rankings with the ones from May, the biggest mover is probably Ezekiel Elliott. He only moved down one spot, from #2 to #3, but he dropped from the vaunted top tier. Missing 6 games is a relatively minor issue - the big concern here is the risk of further suspensions (based on the NFL's warning that "another violation of this nature may result in your suspension or potential banishment from the NFL" and the large number of off-field incidents which he has gotten into). Depending on how his appeal shakes out he could move back into tier 1 (where the important thing is not the number of games that he misses this year, but what we learn about the risk of further suspensions).

 

[cockroach]

Nearly half of the top 13 are rookies.  Dig that new car smell, eh? 

 

[voiceofunreason]

Very solid. For me Shady drops like a rock. Old and the Bills are a dumpster fire.  

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I am relatively down on Adrian Peterson, LeGarrette Blount, Charles Sims, DeAndre Washington, and Ryan Mathews.

A pretty good list to be down on.  I'd be surprised if these guys produce one RB2 season through the rest of their careers combined.

 

[ZWK]

Nearly half of the top 13 are rookies.  Dig that new car smell, eh? 

Who do you put ahead of them? Henry and Abdullah haven't done much in the NFL yet; you're basically evaluating them the same way you'd evaluate rookies. Hyde has essentially had 1 solid NFL season and he's about 26 years old (on September 20 he'll either turn 26 or he'll turn 27 - apparently we still haven't figured out what year he was born in). McCoy is 29 years old. Kareem Hunt; whoops, there's another rookie. Lamar Miller has been in the league 5 years and has never reached the heights of Darren Sproles' 2011-12 production; he is probably more than halfway through his career and has limited upside.

 

[az_prof]

A pretty good list to be down on.  I'd be surprised if these guys produce one RB2 season through the rest of their careers combined.

Why include DeAndre Washington? He is a second year back who is second on the depth chart behind a 31 year old back who hasn't played since 2015.  He will likely have an opportunity sooner than later. Maybe Richard is better; maybe he isn't. They were pretty much interchangable last year but Washington is in the lead now so he must have had a good camp and preseason in the coach's eyes.

 

[jtd13]

Who do you put ahead of them? Henry and Abdullah haven't done much in the NFL yet; you're basically evaluating them the same way you'd evaluate rookies. Hyde has essentially had 1 solid NFL season and he's about 26 years old (on September 20 he'll either turn 26 or he'll turn 27 - apparently we still haven't figured out what year he was born in). McCoy is 29 years old. Kareem Hunt; whoops, there's another rookie. Lamar Miller has been in the league 5 years and has never reached the heights of Darren Sproles' 2011-12 production; he is probably more than halfway through his career and has limited upside.

Thanks for sharing your rankings again. The Kamara rating initially caught me by surprise, but when I looked at the tier breaks and the guys behind him, I didn't see too many I would have to move over him.

I would have Henry with your tier 3 guys and ahead of Kamara based on his college profile, draft position, and the situation in TEN apparently matching his play style so well when he does take over.

 

[Snorkelson]

A few minor nitpicks, but I like D'onte Foreman way better than the 37th RB.  I like him more than all 10 of the guys in front of him and I own a few of those (Procise, Gillislee, Perkins). 

Before he got injured I liked foreman in the 2nd tier rookies with kamara and hunt. Then he missed the combine, everyone was talking about the top rbs combine performances, and foreman seemed to slip through the cracks all summer. Runs good at his pro day, no one seemed to care. Runs well in preseason, no one seems to care.  I suppose I worry a bit about him not being listed as the #2, but I think weve seen what blue/Ervin can do. I don't have a lot of long term faith in Miller.

 

[Snorkelson]

Thanks for sharing your work zwk. Not only do you do the work, but you take the time to explain your thinking to anyone who questions a ranking (most of whom I'm sure haven't done ####.) That's not directed at any recent comment, but over the years I've noticed you calmly defend or adjust. I'm sure there's a fair share of "how can you put Matt jones so far down? He's the heir apparent to gore now?!?!!" Hats off ? 

 

[Mavis]

Pre-season running back rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 5/2/17.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    David Johnson    ARI    25.7    (1)
1    2    LeVeon Bell    PIT    25.5    (3)
2    3    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    22.1    (2)
2    4    Todd Gurley    RAM    23.1    (5)
2    5    Leonard Fournette    JAX    22.6    (4)
2    6    Christian McCaffrey    CAR    21.2    (6)
2    7    Devonta Freeman    ATL    25.5    (8)
2    8    Melvin Gordon    LAC    24.4    (7)
3    9    Joe Mixon    CIN    21.1    (9)
3    10    Jay Ajayi    MIA    24.2    (12)
3    11    Jordan Howard    CHI    22.8    (10)
3    12    Dalvin Cook    MIN    22.1    (11)
4    13    Alvin Kamara    NO    22.1    (15)
4    14    Carlos Hyde    SF    25.9    (13)
4    15    Derrick Henry    TEN    23.1    (14)
4    16    LeSean McCoy    BUF    29.1    (17)
4    17    Ameer Abdullah    DET    24.2    (18)
4    18    Kareem Hunt    KC    22.1    (23)
4    19    Lamar Miller    HOU    26.4    (16)
 

I can never fault someone for "their" rankings as it is their rankings for how you draft a team and thats your choice.

However since you chose to share your rankings on your own free accord, lets discuss...

How on Earth can you put Mixon ahead of guys like Ajayi, Howard and McCoy?

Your gut, your belief? Ok, thats fine... but again you have to back up arguments here if you share them. And in no possible way can you justify putting a rookie who isnt even the starter on his own team over guys who are unquestioned starters who already have had elite type success.

Feel free to draft him that way, again your choice, but you cant justify it as we have not seen anything from Mixon to warrant that and as I said its all based off your gut and when you share rankings people like me need more than your gut, we need justification. When taking a guy, the safer pick with almost as equal upside is McCoy, Ajayi and Howard.

Fournette a little high for that reason, rather have guys like Freeman and the ones I also just mentioned. But not as big of a deal as he is projected starter and most likely to get starter carries as we sit now. 

Other than that, a few other issues I disagree with, but that the big one for me and always like people willing to share their rankings, props for that. Also, if everyone agreed with your rankings, we wouldnt need to discuss them, so I love differing opinions in rankings, just like justification for most reasons. 

 

[Casting Couch]

Good stuff ZWK. I respect your rankings. The first thing that jumps off the page is Theo Riddick at 28. He is a role player who I would slot in at 68 on your list. 

 

[ZWK]

Thanks for sharing your rankings again. The Kamara rating initially caught me by surprise, but when I looked at the tier breaks and the guys behind him, I didn't see too many I would have to move over him.

I would have Henry with your tier 3 guys and ahead of Kamara based on his college profile, draft position, and the situation in TEN apparently matching his play style so well when he does take over.

I think I have Henry roughly in line with his draft spot. Same tier as Abdullah and Hyde (similar draft spots, NFL careers have been a mixed bag so far), a tier below Mixon & Cook (similar draft spot, but it looks like they fell in the draft due to character concerns which are less relevant to fantasy than to actual NFL teams). There were some things to like about his college profile (size, combine jumps, workload) and other things that weren't so great (rushing efficiency, receiving). His rookie year he had good raw efficiency stats, but PFF wasn't that high on him. Tennessee was a great situation for the lead RB last year, but Henry still isn't the guy and situations change. I can see the case for putting him higher (and actually I probably should have him ahead of Hyde), but on the whole I think I like him near where his draft position puts him

I can never fault someone for "their" rankings as it is their rankings for how you draft a team and thats your choice.

However since you chose to share your rankings on your own free accord, lets discuss...

How on Earth can you put Mixon ahead of guys like Ajayi, Howard and McCoy?

Your gut, your belief? Ok, thats fine... but again you have to back up arguments here if you share them. And in no possible way can you justify putting a rookie who isnt even the starter on his own team over guys who are unquestioned starters who already have had elite type success.

Feel free to draft him that way, again your choice, but you cant justify it as we have not seen anything from Mixon to warrant that and as I said its all based off your gut and when you share rankings people like me need more than your gut, we need justification. When taking a guy, the safer pick with almost as equal upside is McCoy, Ajayi and Howard.

Fournette a little high for that reason, rather have guys like Freeman and the ones I also just mentioned. But not as big of a deal as he is projected starter and most likely to get starter carries as we sit now. 

Other than that, a few other issues I disagree with, but that the big one for me and always like people willing to share their rankings, props for that. Also, if everyone agreed with your rankings, we wouldnt need to discuss them, so I love differing opinions in rankings, just like justification for most reasons. 

I don't think I've been criticized before for relying too much on my gut, so, um, thanks for that I guess.

Jeremy Hill looks to be the week 1 starter, but so is Jonathan Stewart, and so were Chester Taylor, Fred Taylor, etc. With rookies, and with everyone else, I'm trying to rate them based on what I think they're likely to do going forward, not based on what they've done so far.

Mixon was picked in the 2nd round, but he is widely considered a first round talent who fell due to character seems (which seem much less relevant for fantasy than for NFL teams). He rated as the best RB prospect in the class by my formula, and the 7th best since 2013. By Football Outsiders' formula he rated as the 3rd best RB prospect in this class and the 10th best since 1998.

McCoy is the easy comparison - RBs his age generally only have 1-2 good years left (even a typical 2nd round RB will produce a similar amount of VBD, on average). Howard had a great rookie year (as I saw as a Bears fan) and is my #11 overall RB, but I am worried about the possibility that he has already peaked and is just an Alfred Morris / Jeremy Hill / Thomas Rawls type player. I like Ajayi a little more than Howard but he has a weird profile and definitely comes with plenty of risk - highly touted prospect who fell to the 5th round, 3 huge games in his 2nd season but other than that he has been kind of mediocre, not very good as a receiver.

Good stuff ZWK. I respect your rankings. The first thing that jumps off the page is Theo Riddick at 28. He is a role player who I would slot in at 68 on your list. 

In Detroit over the past 2 seasons, Riddick has been the kind of role player who catches 80+ passes each year (per 16 games). I may be anchoring too much on his past production (I do expect his numbers to come down as Abdullah steps up) but I think he is at least on the right tier.

Thanks for sharing your work zwk. Not only do you do the work, but you take the time to explain your thinking to anyone who questions a ranking (most of whom I'm sure haven't done ####.) That's not directed at any recent comment, but over the years I've noticed you calmly defend or adjust. I'm sure there's a fair share of "how can you put Matt jones so far down? He's the heir apparent to gore now?!?!!" Hats off ? 

Thanks!

 

[EthnicFury]

Thanks for posting these, ZWK. There's always some good food for thought in your threads.

Was surprised to see you so high on both Terrance West and Javorious Allen. Typically I view Allen as a hedge against West being bad. Care to share your reasoning there (you touched a little on West, but I'm curious on Allen in particular...I own him but you have him a couple tiers above where I do)

 

[ZWK]

Thanks for posting these, ZWK. There's always some good food for thought in your threads.

Was surprised to see you so high on both Terrance West and Javorious Allen. Typically I view Allen as a hedge against West being bad. Care to share your reasoning there (you touched a little on West, but I'm curious on Allen in particular...I own him but you have him a couple tiers above where I do)

"Hedge against West being bad" sums it up pretty well. Allen has a shot at being his team's lead back this year (and a fantasy starter) even if none of the guys in front of him get injured (while guys like C West in KC and D Washington in OAK probably only become fantasy relevant this year if the guy in front of them goes down).

Some people might look at the Baltimore RB situation and think "this is a mess, we don't even know which of these 3 guys is going to produce the most, I'm staying away." But there's a reasonably good chance that at least one of them will be fantasy relevant, and we have a pretty good shot of knowing who that is by midseason (and weeks 14-16 are the most important part of the season anyways). "West vs. Woodhead vs. Allen and we don't know how things will shake out" is a much better fantasy situation than "West & Woodhead & Allen, and we know that they're all splitting the load as long as they're healthy". I think that's how I can be higher than average on all 3 of them, even though I mostly only like them for their redraft value. (I am not a believer in Allen's talent.)

It's also worth noting that RB68 is far enough down the roster so that the cost of the roster spot comes into play more, which helps guys whose value mostly comes this season. And RB43, RB46, and RB68 are low enough so that even the combined value of all 3 is still pretty low.

 

[Casting Couch]

In Detroit over the past 2 seasons, Riddick has been the kind of role player who catches 80+ passes each year (per 16 games). I may be anchoring too much on his past production (I do expect his numbers to come down as Abdullah steps up) but I think he is at least on the right tier.

With all due respect, this is Theo Riddick's 5th year in the league. He's catching 5+ passes per game, couldn't break 400 yards rushing or passing last year, averaged 3.8 yards per carry.

I just don't get the #28 ranking, he's a JAG, nothing more. I would take the boatload of rookie RB prospects you ranked lower than him in a heartbeat, 

ie, Marlon Mack, Matt Breida, Donta Foreman, Samaje Perine, Chris Carson, Tarik Cohen..........

 

[ZWK]

In Detroit over the past 2 seasons, Riddick has been the kind of role player who catches 80+ passes each year (per 16 games). I may be anchoring too much on his past production (I do expect his numbers to come down as Abdullah steps up) but I think he is at least on the right tier.

With all due respect, this is Theo Riddick's 5th year in the league. He's catching 5+ passes per game, couldn't break 400 yards rushing or passing last year, averaged 3.8 yards per carry.

I just don't get the #28 ranking, he's a JAG, nothing more. I would take the boatload of rookie RB prospects you ranked lower than him in a heartbeat, 

ie, Marlon Mack, Matt Breida, Donta Foreman, Samaje Perine, Chris Carson, Tarik Cohen..........

Last year Riddick was 3rd in the NFL about RBs in receiving yards per game (behind only David Johnson & Le'Veon Bell). He played 10 games; few RBs top 40 receiving yards per game.

In 2016, Riddick played 10 games and was on pace for 107 targets and 85/594/8 receiving, which in PPR is 192 fpts just from receiving. In 2015, he played all 16 games and got 99 targets and 80/697/3 receiving which is 168 fpts just from receiving (lower than 2016 mainly due to fewer TDs). In 2014, there were 9 games where he played more than a tiny amount (including the playoff game, and leaving out 6 games where he had 5 or fewer offensive snaps) and in those 9 games he was on pace for 101 targets and 68/631/7 receiving which is 173 fpts just from receiving (lower than 2016 mainly because of a lower catch rate). That is a remarkably stable receiving workload, and the 35 games average out to 102 targets with 78/651/5.5 receiving and 176 fpts just from receiving. Give him another 20 fpts from rushing and you have a low-end RB2 (basically the same as last year's totals for Crowell, Gurley, or B Powell).