Stafford has already established an incredibly high right tail of that distribution, hasn't he? Seriously, it was one of the best ff seasons of all time. Do you really think Ryan, Kaep, and Wilson have a higher upside than that?I'm not sure if there's confusion here about what we mean when we talk about Stafford's upside, or if there is just disagreement. In case there is confusion: for each player, there is some probability distribution of what their future fantasy value will be. When I talk about "upside", I am talking about the right tail of that distribution. If we look at (say) the 10% of the possibilities where that player has the most fantasy value, how much fantasy value does he have in those scenarios?
I see the argument that a guy who has already had one huge season is more likely to have a huge season in the future. It's a pretty good argument. But in this case, comparing Stafford to Ryan, Kaepernick, and Wilson, I disagree with its conclusion. I think that the right tail of the distribution (the top 10% of possibilities) for Stafford is not as good as the right tail of the distribution for Ryan, Kaerpernick, or Wilson, for reasons that I sketched out in my previous comments.
In any event, like I said, this wasn't a discussion on relative value. You said you see little upside in Stafford and that he has less than most. I see a ton up upside in Stafford, and my evidence is his near record setting performance and fantastic situation. I suppose you could make an argument that he has less upside than Ryan, Kaep, and Wilson (although I don't think it's a strong one), but when you say "most", I interpret that to mean most QBs. There's just no way he has less upside than most QBs.
Sorry for hijacking- good job overall, I just thought that comment was strange.