ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (2 Viewers)

[Biabreakable]

I share your view point on Kelly being a good thing for FF skill players. I wonder if Kaepernick will get the opportunity to start for them over the 49ers. If that did happen would you have him ranked where Gabbert is? Or would he be higher with that confirmation?

I am still skeptical of Gabbert but I have barely watched SF games where he played in them. Perhaps he isn't as bad now?

 

[Pwingles]

I share your view point on Kelly being a good thing for FF skill players. I wonder if Kaepernick will get the opportunity to start for them over the 49ers. If that did happen would you have him ranked where Gabbert is? Or would he be higher with that confirmation?

I am still skeptical of Gabbert but I have barely watched SF games where he played in them. Perhaps he isn't as bad now?

Before kelly got there i assumed theyd use an early pick in a qb. Now im not sure what the plan is. I think kap has proven he cant be 'fixed' so if kelly wants to let him play to his strengths it may be a great value fantasy wise. Also, i wonder if theyll bring in rg3 to compete?

 

[gianmarco]

It may be nitpicking, but I don't understand Wilson being ranked over Cam. I will get to Rodgers as well, but let's start with Wilson:

1) Same age although Cam slightly younger -- no advantage

2) Years in the league -- 5 for Cam vs. 4 for Wilson. Both established

3) Team -- Both play on top teams at this point, maybe slight edge to Seattle

4) Fantasy finishes -- Cam has finished 4th, 4th, 6th, 17th, and 1st in his 5 years. That's 4 of 5 years essentially as a top 5 QB with the one outlier the year he was hurt. Has rushed for 500 yds and 5 TDs all 5 years he's been in the league. His 445 pts this year in standard scoring was higher than Luck's 1st place finish last year, higher than Brees' 1st place finish in 2012, and the same as Brees/Rodgers top finish in 2011. The only QB to outscore him was Peyton's record setting 2013 season when he threw for 5500 yds and 55 TDs.

Wilson has finished 11th, 9th, 5th, and 3rd. In terms of pts scored, he has 322, 322, 369, and 390. Cam has seasons of 346, 380, 427, and 450 (and 300 last year when hurt). Cam's 3rd best year is on par with Russell's two best years and his top 2 yrs blow away anything Russell has ever done.

5) Rushing -- Russell has 12 CAREER rushing TDs. Cam had 14 in his rookie year and just rushed for 10 this past year alone.

I can't see any metric or production measure that relates to fantasy where I'd prefer Wilson to Cam. Cam has both the consistency as well as the top end production to warrant consideration as the #1 overall QB. I won't argue with anyone putting Luck up there (Luck has been a 330-350 pt scorer except for last year with 425), even though Cam's year this year was better than Luck's last year.

So, then we get to Rodgers. Rodgers, much like Cam, has consistently been at the top and put up big #'s. He routinely puts up about 400 pts/season even though he's had some down years. But his #'s are almost identical to Cam's. And Cam's 2015 is the same as Rodger's best year as well. So, from a production standpoint, I might understand, even though they've been comparable, but Cam is now SIX years younger than Rodgers. That is not insignificant. Rodgers turning 33 is about the point where dynasty value starts to fall. It started happening to Brees around the same time despite the numbers he was putting up. So why would you prefer a QB 6 yrs older that is putting up roughly the same numbers when one is still trending upward and the other is likely to start trending downward soon.

Right now, based on age, production, and talent, Cam and Luck should be in a tier by themselves at the very top as they are the gold standard. Young, matchup proof, 400 pt QBs that can finish #1 overall and will finish top 5 barring injury.

 

[Tau837]

It may be nitpicking, but I don't understand Wilson being ranked over Cam. I will get to Rodgers as well, but let's start with Wilson:

1) Same age although Cam slightly younger -- no advantage

2) Years in the league -- 5 for Cam vs. 4 for Wilson. Both established

3) Team -- Both play on top teams at this point, maybe slight edge to Seattle

4) Fantasy finishes -- Cam has finished 4th, 4th, 6th, 17th, and 1st in his 5 years. That's 4 of 5 years essentially as a top 5 QB with the one outlier the year he was hurt. Has rushed for 500 yds and 5 TDs all 5 years he's been in the league. His 445 pts this year in standard scoring was higher than Luck's 1st place finish last year, higher than Brees' 1st place finish in 2012, and the same as Brees/Rodgers top finish in 2011. The only QB to outscore him was Peyton's record setting 2013 season when he threw for 5500 yds and 55 TDs.

Wilson has finished 11th, 9th, 5th, and 3rd. In terms of pts scored, he has 322, 322, 369, and 390. Cam has seasons of 346, 380, 427, and 450 (and 300 last year when hurt). Cam's 3rd best year is on par with Russell's two best years and his top 2 yrs blow away anything Russell has ever done.

5) Rushing -- Russell has 12 CAREER rushing TDs. Cam had 14 in his rookie year and just rushed for 10 this past year alone.

I can't see any metric or production measure that relates to fantasy where I'd prefer Wilson to Cam. Cam has both the consistency as well as the top end production to warrant consideration as the #1 overall QB. I won't argue with anyone putting Luck up there (Luck has been a 330-350 pt scorer except for last year with 425), even though Cam's year this year was better than Luck's last year.

So, then we get to Rodgers. Rodgers, much like Cam, has consistently been at the top and put up big #'s. He routinely puts up about 400 pts/season even though he's had some down years. But his #'s are almost identical to Cam's. And Cam's 2015 is the same as Rodger's best year as well. So, from a production standpoint, I might understand, even though they've been comparable, but Cam is now SIX years younger than Rodgers. That is not insignificant. Rodgers turning 33 is about the point where dynasty value starts to fall. It started happening to Brees around the same time despite the numbers he was putting up. So why would you prefer a QB 6 yrs older that is putting up roughly the same numbers when one is still trending upward and the other is likely to start trending downward soon.

Right now, based on age, production, and talent, Cam and Luck should be in a tier by themselves at the very top as they are the gold standard. Young, matchup proof, 400 pt QBs that can finish #1 overall and will finish top 5 barring injury.

I was wondering about Rodgers as well. From a dynasty value standpoint, it seems that his value took a pretty big hit this season. I am in two dynasty leagues, and his finish this year varied pretty significantly between them -- QB6 vs. QB12 in total points, QB9 vs. QB16 in ppg. But either way, that is definitely a down year. Combining that with his age, I could easily see him in a lower tier than Newton, Luck, Wilson.

I admit to being a big Wilson fan, so I have some bias. Comparing Newton vs. Wilson, I do think there is a counterpoint to the positives gianmarco posted for Newton, at least to some degree.

First, using FBG scoring, Newton has scoring ~35% of his career fantasy points from rushing, compared to ~26% for Wilson. If you run those numbers, it shows that Wilson has averaged more fantasy points from passing than Newton has, despite the fact that Newton has averaged 496 passing attempts per 16 games, compared to just 434 for Wilson.

Going forward, there isn't much reason to expect Newton's passing attempts to go up, but there is reason to expect that for Wilson, since it has been a trend in his 4 seasons (team passing attempts beginning with 2012 season: 405, 420, 454, 489). There is reason to believe Lynch will be gone and there may continue to be a slow shift from running emphasis to passing emphasis in Seattle. While Newton will get Benjamin back next season, Wilson will get Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham back.

Watching both of them play this season, while both were extremely impressive, Wilson looked like a better passer by a pretty good margin. So it is a valid question to wonder how long Newton will maintain his rushing performance. That will presumably tail off long before his career is over, which will have a disproportionate effect on his fantasy performance, unless he gets a lot better as a passer. When that will happen matters in this comparison, since Wilson is already getting more fantasy points from passing. Does the short term boost from Newton's rushing, however many more seasons he can sustain it, outweigh the longer term edge Wilson seems to have in passing?

 

[Slapdash]

Stafford put up a top ten season, why such a big drop?

 

[Cold Dead Hands]

Stafford put up a top ten season, why such a big drop?

If there is no Calvin I think this year is his new ceiling.

 

[Slapdash]

Stafford put up a top ten season, why such a big drop?

If there is no Calvin I think this year is his new ceiling.

They can always get new weapons. Golden Tate and a growing role for Ebron aren't bad. Very encouraged by the big jump in completion percentage and the good close to the year. I can certainly get not bumping him, just curious about the big drop. ZWK always has good reasons though.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Because Calvin Johnson was so good this year????

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

It may be nitpicking, but I don't understand Wilson being ranked over Cam. I will get to Rodgers as well, but let's start with Wilson:

1) Same age although Cam slightly younger -- no advantage

2) Years in the league -- 5 for Cam vs. 4 for Wilson. Both established

3) Team -- Both play on top teams at this point, maybe slight edge to Seattle

4) Fantasy finishes -- Cam has finished 4th, 4th, 6th, 17th, and 1st in his 5 years. That's 4 of 5 years essentially as a top 5 QB with the one outlier the year he was hurt. Has rushed for 500 yds and 5 TDs all 5 years he's been in the league. His 445 pts this year in standard scoring was higher than Luck's 1st place finish last year, higher than Brees' 1st place finish in 2012, and the same as Brees/Rodgers top finish in 2011. The only QB to outscore him was Peyton's record setting 2013 season when he threw for 5500 yds and 55 TDs.

Wilson has finished 11th, 9th, 5th, and 3rd. In terms of pts scored, he has 322, 322, 369, and 390. Cam has seasons of 346, 380, 427, and 450 (and 300 last year when hurt). Cam's 3rd best year is on par with Russell's two best years and his top 2 yrs blow away anything Russell has ever done.

5) Rushing -- Russell has 12 CAREER rushing TDs. Cam had 14 in his rookie year and just rushed for 10 this past year alone.

I can't see any metric or production measure that relates to fantasy where I'd prefer Wilson to Cam. Cam has both the consistency as well as the top end production to warrant consideration as the #1 overall QB. I won't argue with anyone putting Luck up there (Luck has been a 330-350 pt scorer except for last year with 425), even though Cam's year this year was better than Luck's last year.

So, then we get to Rodgers. Rodgers, much like Cam, has consistently been at the top and put up big #'s. He routinely puts up about 400 pts/season even though he's had some down years. But his #'s are almost identical to Cam's. And Cam's 2015 is the same as Rodger's best year as well. So, from a production standpoint, I might understand, even though they've been comparable, but Cam is now SIX years younger than Rodgers. That is not insignificant. Rodgers turning 33 is about the point where dynasty value starts to fall. It started happening to Brees around the same time despite the numbers he was putting up. So why would you prefer a QB 6 yrs older that is putting up roughly the same numbers when one is still trending upward and the other is likely to start trending downward soon.

Right now, based on age, production, and talent, Cam and Luck should be in a tier by themselves at the very top as they are the gold standard. Young, matchup proof, 400 pt QBs that can finish #1 overall and will finish top 5 barring injury.

I was wondering about Rodgers as well. From a dynasty value standpoint, it seems that his value took a pretty big hit this season. I am in two dynasty leagues, and his finish this year varied pretty significantly between them -- QB6 vs. QB12 in total points, QB9 vs. QB16 in ppg. But either way, that is definitely a down year. Combining that with his age, I could easily see him in a lower tier than Newton, Luck, Wilson.

I admit to being a big Wilson fan, so I have some bias. Comparing Newton vs. Wilson, I do think there is a counterpoint to the positives gianmarco posted for Newton, at least to some degree.

First, using FBG scoring, Newton has scoring ~35% of his career fantasy points from rushing, compared to ~26% for Wilson. If you run those numbers, it shows that Wilson has averaged more fantasy points from passing than Newton has, despite the fact that Newton has averaged 496 passing attempts per 16 games, compared to just 434 for Wilson.

Going forward, there isn't much reason to expect Newton's passing attempts to go up, but there is reason to expect that for Wilson, since it has been a trend in his 4 seasons (team passing attempts beginning with 2012 season: 405, 420, 454, 489). There is reason to believe Lynch will be gone and there may continue to be a slow shift from running emphasis to passing emphasis in Seattle. While Newton will get Benjamin back next season, Wilson will get Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham back.

Watching both of them play this season, while both were extremely impressive, Wilson looked like a better passer by a pretty good margin. So it is a valid question to wonder how long Newton will maintain his rushing performance. That will presumably tail off long before his career is over, which will have a disproportionate effect on his fantasy performance, unless he gets a lot better as a passer. When that will happen matters in this comparison, since Wilson is already getting more fantasy points from passing. Does the short term boost from Newton's rushing, however many more seasons he can sustain it, outweigh the longer term edge Wilson seems to have in passing?

Yeah, I think the argument would be that Wilson still has room to grow. His first two seasons don't really figure into what we think he will do from here on out.

That being said, I prefer Cam, but only by a slim margin. I think Wilson is the real deal and will have some extremely good fantasy seasons going forward.

 

[Slapdash]

Cam still has room to grow too IMO

 

[bostonfred]

Dalton should be tier two, not 14th overall. 3200/25/6 through week 13, and was qb5 overall before he got hurt. Two years ago, he was also qb5. He had a down year in 2014 when all of his receivers got hurt, but so did Rodgers, brady and brees. The supposedly run heavy Hue Jackson just left town. He's emerging, aj green is in his prime, eifert is coming into his own, the defenses in that division have all slipped way back and all those teams are building around offense. The needle is pointing way, way up.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Because Calvin Johnson was so good this year????

Keeps the def honest.

 

[Cold Dead Hands]

Because Calvin Johnson was so good this year????

He was still doubled.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Because Calvin Johnson was so good this year????

Least-impressive 1200-yard, top-10 (standard) or top-12 (PPR) fantasy season of all time, IMO.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Using PFR's scoring (1/25 passing, 4pt TD, -2 INT), Cam Newton ranks:

1st in fantasy points at age 22 (by 50+ points)

4th in fantasy points at age 23

1st in fantasy points at age 24

20th in fantasy points at age 25

1st in fantasy points at age 26 (by nearly 50 points)

His first three seasons in the NFL were the 4th-highest-scoring 3-season stretch by any quarterback at any point in his career in NFL history. His first five seasons does that one better; the only quarterbacks to ever score more than Newton's 1627.6 fantasy points over any 5-year stretch of their career are Drew Brees (who had three overlapping five-year stretches from '09-'13, '10-'14, and '11-'15, the latter of which was his best with 1705.1 fantasy points), and Aaron Rodgers, (who had 1665.7 fantasy points from '08-'12).

Former #1 overall draft pick, 3-time pro bowler, first-team AP All Pro, likely league MVP. Joins Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, and Young as the only players in history with two 350-point fantasy seasons, (well, plus Priest Holmes, too).

Rodgers is impossible to believe, and I love Luck and Wilson. But I have a really hard time seeing anyone other than Cam as the #1 dynasty QB right now.

 

[ZWK]

Newton at QB4: My top 4 QBs are pretty closely packed. I have Newton in 4th because I think that the other 3 are better passers than him, and QB passing ages better than QB running. And QB passing has been aging remarkably well lately. We've seen Manning, Brady, and Brees continue to put up big numbers into their late 30s, and guys like Palmer & E Manning have also been aging gracefully.

Stafford at QB20: I basically answered this one in advance: "My guess is that Stafford will continue to be a low-end fantasy starter as long as Calvin remains elite, and then he'll slip down into fantasy QB2 territory." With the spike in the risk of losing Calvin, Stafford's years of accruing small amounts of VBD are more likely to be coming to an end. I do think that he benefited from having Calvin this year - even though he wasn't as elite as he used to be, Calvin still attracted double teams and put up 1200/9. For Stafford, I don't put much weight on a few good games down the stretch; he has been in the league for 7 years.

I do have QBs 15-21 pretty tightly packed together (Bridgewater, Brees, Kaep, Tannehill, Rivers, Stafford, Cousins), so Stafford could easily move up a few spots over the offseason. But looking at that group, the guy who sticks out to me as possibly too low is Cousins. There is more uncertainty about him than about Tannehill or Stafford, and uncertainty is good for QBs in this range because low-end QB1 production is much less valuable than mid-range QB1 production.

Dalton: I may be underrating him; I'm going to have to take a closer look at him. The fact that he didn't make the Pro Bowl or PFF's top 10 QBs suggests that his numbers may have been somewhat misleading this year, but I haven't looked into it that closely yet. Also, I realized that I was looking at his ppg while counting wk14 as a full game (he threw 5 passes). Are there good writeups anywhere from people who watched him play this year?

 

[Borden]

Luck and Cam are #1. It's a coin flip there. Rodgers is #3. Then there is tier a drop. Wilson, end of tier.

Dalton, supposedly, not at 14? Then where would you put him? Newton, Rodgers, Luck, Wilson. Then is there 10 other guys I would rather have for my dynasty team? Yeah, probably.

1) Winston

2) Mariota

3) Carr

4) Ben

5) Brees

6) Brady

7) Rivers

8) Ryan

9) Eli

10) Bortles

Then would I rather have Cousins, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Stafford? I don't know, maybe.

So let's not act like Dalton at 14 is major travesty. And Stafford without Mega, of course it's a major issue.

My goodness people.

 

[gianmarco]

Newton at QB4: My top 4 QBs are pretty closely packed. I have Newton in 4th because I think that the other 3 are better passers than him, and QB passing ages better than QB running. And QB passing has been aging remarkably well lately. We've seen Manning, Brady, and Brees continue to put up big numbers into their late 30s, and guys like Palmer & E Manning have also been aging gracefully.

Stafford at QB20: I basically answered this one in advance: "My guess is that Stafford will continue to be a low-end fantasy starter as long as Calvin remains elite, and then he'll slip down into fantasy QB2 territory." With the spike in the risk of losing Calvin, Stafford's years of accruing small amounts of VBD are more likely to be coming to an end. I do think that he benefited from having Calvin this year - even though he wasn't as elite as he used to be, Calvin still attracted double teams and put up 1200/9. For Stafford, I don't put much weight on a few good games down the stretch; he has been in the league for 7 years.

I do have QBs 15-21 pretty tightly packed together (Bridgewater, Brees, Kaep, Tannehill, Rivers, Stafford, Cousins), so Stafford could easily move up a few spots over the offseason. But looking at that group, the guy who sticks out to me as possibly too low is Cousins. There is more uncertainty about him than about Tannehill or Stafford, and uncertainty is good for QBs in this range because low-end QB1 production is much less valuable than mid-range QB1 production.

Dalton: I may be underrating him; I'm going to have to take a closer look at him. The fact that he didn't make the Pro Bowl or PFF's top 10 QBs suggests that his numbers may have been somewhat misleading this year, but I haven't looked into it that closely yet. Also, I realized that I was looking at his ppg while counting wk14 as a full game (he threw 5 passes). Are there good writeups anywhere from people who watched him play this year?

Fair enough, but a couple points:

1) Cam is only 27. His running my decline after 4-5 yrs, but I hope you aren't suggesting that it will happen in the next 2-3? When extending that far out, I think that point is somewhat irrelevant because he's scoring so much higher than Wilson at this point. And if we're going to knock on a likely decline 4-5 yrs from now, then same must be done for an almost 33 yo Rodgers.

2) Along the same lines, if these guys were producing similarly, then yeah, I would take the better passer. But they aren't. Cam is outproducing Wilson and not by an insignificant amount. Cam put up 60 more pts this year, or roughly 4 ppg. That's HUGE. Cam's numbers dwarf Wilson's first 2 yrs.

3) Even if his rushing yards may fall, the guy will ALWAYS be a goal line threat due to his size. That's where many of his rushing TDs come from. So I think his rushing "decline" in the future is being somewhat overstated.

4) Let's look at these passing #'s this year:

Wilson: 329/483 for 4024 yards, 34 passing TDs, 8 INTs (Russell's first 4000 yd year, btw)

Cam: 296/495 for 3837 yards, 35 passing TDs, 10 INTs

I'm not seeing where Wilson is the significantly better passer. Yes, he has a higher completion % and YPA, but I don't get points for those. And Cam isn't losing his job anytime soon because of a lower completion %or YPA. Cam's numbers, viewed without a name next to them, are indicative of a very good passing QB. Roughly the same attempts, less than 190 yds passing difference, 2 INTs different, and Cam with 1 more passing TD. If anything, Cam has more room for improvement than Russell does.

In the end, I want my fantasy QBs to put up points. And Cam is doing so at a higher level and should do so for at least the next 4-5 yrs without any decline that I can see. Beyond that, I don't really care. No chance I'm taking Wilson over Cam right now because I prefer higher points. In 3-4 yrs, I'll probably change that around.

Now, if you want to say that Cam's rushing is going to decline in 2-3 yrs, then I'd like to know why you think that. If these guys were 30 yrs old, then I can see having the discussion about Cam falling off earlier on than Wilson. But at this point in their careers, it's almost the same as downgrading Cam at age 24 because he's a rushing QB. Sure, his production will erode earlier than a similarly aged Brady or Peyton, but who cares when that point is so far in the future? I'll worry about that in 2-3 yrs when it might happen 2-3 yrs after that.

 

[bostonfred]

Luck and Cam are #1. It's a coin flip there. Rodgers is #3. Then there is tier a drop. Wilson, end of tier.

Dalton, supposedly, not at 14? Then where would you put him? Newton, Rodgers, Luck, Wilson. Then is there 10 other guys I would rather have for my dynasty team? Yeah, probably.

1) Winston

2) Mariota

3) Carr

4) Ben

5) Brees

6) Brady

7) Rivers

8) Ryan

9) Eli

10) Bortles

Then would I rather have Cousins, Bridgewater, Tannehill, Stafford? I don't know, maybe.

So let's not act like Dalton at 14 is major travesty. And Stafford without Mega, of course it's a major issue.

My goodness people.

I would take Dalton ahead of all of those guys. He was ahead of all but two when he got hurt. Have Winston, Mariotta and Carr had a top five season yet? They could certainly could, but it's not like they're that much younger than Dalton that the extra risk puts them ten spots higher on the list.

Brady I can see just because he can still be dominant, but age. Brees is close, too, but he's getting up there in years and not dominant enough that I'd trade the years for production. Same goes for rivers. I like both a lot but Dalton is younger and produces on the same level.

Ben is intriguing, but Dalton has outscored him in points and average ppg in two of the last three years. Eli isn't even in consideration.

Ryan has taken a step back in production. A new offense might help but he's getting frustrating. Julio just had a great year and Ryan had a bad one. Not a good sign.

Bortles is interesting just because he had those receivers, but so much of his production is garbage time and/or in meaningless games. Hard to trust him when the team would prefer not too have him throwing so much late.

All those guys are good or young, and the good ones aren't much better than Dalton and the young ones aren't as good and aren't much younger. He belongs at the top of that list not the bottom.

 

[gianmarco]

Last few thoughts on Cam and then I'll let it go:

--Cam is tied for 23rd ALL TIME amongst QBs in YPA with the likes of Brees, Montana and higher than Brady, Palmer, Dalton, Luck, and Stafford.

--Cam is 12th ALL TIME in adjusted YPA (even better statistic) just behind Peyton, Brees, and K. Warner

--Cam is 16th ALL TIME in passer rating amongst QBs with an 88.2 rating

Now, Russell is indeed higher than him in these categories, however, I think Cam is extremely underrated as a passing QB. This isn't Michael Vick we're talking about here who isn't top 50 in really any of these types of categories. So when his rushing numbers do start to decline, whenever that ends up being, he will still likely be a top notch passing QB and maybe even better than what he is now. Despite Russell being the better passer, Cam still has a higher career season high in both passing yards and passing TDs than Wilson.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Bortles is interesting just because he had those receivers, but so much of his production is garbage time and/or in meaningless games.

I see this said a lot, but is it really true? I'm not saying that it's not, necessarily, but I don't recall Jacksonville getting blown out a lot and being constantly in furious comeback mode.

I see Bortles as a modern day Favre. He's a gunslinger. He'll have his share of bad interceptions, but the stats will be there at the end of the day. He also adds some decent rushing stats which help from a fantasy perspective.

I think his rookie season was just so bad that people's view of him are somewhat tainted. He was the No. 3 overall pick (so pedigree is there), has the prototypical size, has above average arm strength and mobility. Not sure why we've seen his peak in only his second season.

 

[bostonfred]

Bortles had a big year.

4428 35 18

1442 14 7 in the fourth quarter

A winning team doesn't want to be passing that much in the 4th.

By comparison Dalton had

3250 25 7 in a little over 12 games

814 7 2 in the fourth quarter

Almost exactly even splits by quarter. Seems more sustainable. I don't care when they get the points as long as they get them, I'm just worried that as the Jaguars continue to improve they might not be that skewed. Especially since their defense and running game are likely to be big focuses this off season.

 

[tangfoot]

I would take Dalton ahead of all of those guys. He was ahead of all but two when he got hurt.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you're arguing that he should be ahead of them in redraft for 2016, I have no argument.

He's a middling QB2 for dynasty purposes, though.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Last few thoughts on Cam and then I'll let it go:

--Cam is tied for 23rd ALL TIME amongst QBs in YPA with the likes of Brees, Montana and higher than Brady, Palmer, Dalton, Luck, and Stafford.

--Cam is 12th ALL TIME in adjusted YPA (even better statistic) just behind Peyton, Brees, and K. Warner

--Cam is 16th ALL TIME in passer rating amongst QBs with an 88.2 rating

Now, Russell is indeed higher than him in these categories, however, I think Cam is extremely underrated as a passing QB. This isn't Michael Vick we're talking about here who isn't top 50 in really any of these types of categories. So when his rushing numbers do start to decline, whenever that ends up being, he will still likely be a top notch passing QB and maybe even better than what he is now. Despite Russell being the better passer, Cam still has a higher career season high in both passing yards and passing TDs than Wilson.

To be devil's advocate a little bit. Cam's rushing stats rely on his health. He is a good enough passer that if he has a significant leg injury (or core injury), when he comes back (combined with an elite defense) they could be more conservative running. The same is true with Wilson of course. He had more rushing attempts this year than his rookie year, which is surprising to me given how many games they won easily. I would think that is a slight outlier (but doesn't affect his projection or value much). McNabb is not a great comparison, but his improvement as a passer after his 5th year wasn't enough to compensate for his loss in rushing ability other than the year his boat was lifted with TO. The team invested heavily in WR (just as Panthers did with Benjamin and Funchess) but it didn't provide the same level of output. Rushing stats, especially with 10 rushing TDs, are more risky than passing stats. Its enough for me to prefer Luck because his projection as elite longterm isn't really dependent on rushing, although his prior years were certainly helped by it.

 

[gianmarco]

Bortles had a big year.

4428 35 18

1442 14 7 in the fourth quarter

A winning team doesn't want to be passing that much in the 4th.

By comparison Dalton had

3250 25 7 in a little over 12 games

814 7 2 in the fourth quarter

Almost exactly even splits by quarter. Seems more sustainable. I don't care when they get the points as long as they get them, I'm just worried that as the Jaguars continue to improve they might not be that skewed. Especially since their defense and running game are likely to be big focuses this off season.

Those 4th qtr splits for Bortles aren't that much off from his 2nd qtr (1,112 yds and 10 TDs).

I'd be far more worried about Luck's splits:

QTR 1 -- 301/1

QTR 2 -- 351/2

QTR 3 -- 396/3

QTR 4 -- 827/9

All but 3 of Jacksonville's games were decided by 11 pts or less. His biggest point totals came in games decided by 7 pts or less (and many of them 3 pts or less). In fact, in the 3 blowouts (2 losses and 1 win), Bortles didn't top 250 yds.

So yeah, if they improve and start getting leads more often, they may throw less in the 4th. But that's also probably as a result of throwing more earlier in the game to actually get the lead so it usually evens out.

 

[gianmarco]

Last few thoughts on Cam and then I'll let it go:

--Cam is tied for 23rd ALL TIME amongst QBs in YPA with the likes of Brees, Montana and higher than Brady, Palmer, Dalton, Luck, and Stafford.

--Cam is 12th ALL TIME in adjusted YPA (even better statistic) just behind Peyton, Brees, and K. Warner

--Cam is 16th ALL TIME in passer rating amongst QBs with an 88.2 rating

Now, Russell is indeed higher than him in these categories, however, I think Cam is extremely underrated as a passing QB. This isn't Michael Vick we're talking about here who isn't top 50 in really any of these types of categories. So when his rushing numbers do start to decline, whenever that ends up being, he will still likely be a top notch passing QB and maybe even better than what he is now. Despite Russell being the better passer, Cam still has a higher career season high in both passing yards and passing TDs than Wilson.

To be devil's advocate a little bit. Cam's rushing stats rely on his health. He is a good enough passer that if he has a significant leg injury (or core injury), when he comes back (combined with an elite defense) they could be more conservative running. The same is true with Wilson of course. He had more rushing attempts this year than his rookie year, which is surprising to me given how many games they won easily. I would think that is a slight outlier (but doesn't affect his projection or value much). McNabb is not a great comparison, but his improvement as a passer after his 5th year wasn't enough to compensate for his loss in rushing ability other than the year his boat was lifted with TO. The team invested heavily in WR (just as Panthers did with Benjamin and Funchess) but it didn't provide the same level of output. Rushing stats, especially with 10 rushing TDs, are more risky than passing stats. Its enough for me to prefer Luck because his projection as elite longterm isn't really dependent on rushing, although his prior years were certainly helped by it.

Trying to compare Cam to McNabb doesn't make much sense to me (and yes, I know you said it's not great, but still put it out there). Yes, McNabb was a running QB, but he is nowhere in the same universe as Cam in that department.

McNabb has 29 CAREER rushing TDs in 13 yrs in the NFL. Cam has 43 rushing TDs in just 5.

McNabb has 3459 CAREER rushing yards in 13 yrs in the NFL. Cam is already over 3200 in just 5.

McNabb never went over 4000 yds passing. Cam did it in his rookie year.

McNabb's best fantasy year in 13 yrs is the same as Cam's 4th best year out of 5.

Comparing Cam to McNabb is like comparing Peyton to Jay Cutler.

Of course his running is related to his health, but it's also related to his passing just like any QB. Look at Luck this year missing time. Brady with an ACL. Palmer with an ACL. Romo with multiple injuries. Any QB can get hurt and those injuries will impact all parts of their game. And Cam's shown enough in the passing game (again, compare this year's numbers) that I wouldn't be worried at all if he stopped running.

In fact, I'm more concerned about Wilson's health moving forward than Cam's because he runs just as much as Cam (~100 attempts/season) but isn't 6'6 and 260 lbs.

 

[bostonfred]

I would take Dalton ahead of all of those guys. He was ahead of all but two when he got hurt.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. If you're arguing that he should be ahead of them in redraft for 2016, I have no argument.

He's a middling QB2 for dynasty purposes, though.

That's just silly. He's one of the best qbs in the league right now, he's improving, just entering his prime, has great continuity on a consistent winning team.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Trying to compare Cam to McNabb doesn't make much sense to me (and yes, I know you said it's not great, but still put it out there). Yes, McNabb was a running QB, but he is nowhere in the same universe as Cam in that department.

They are similar passing QBs and McNabb's fantasy performance as a young QB was elevated because he ran. That is the similarity. I thought that was clear in my post, sorry I didn't emphasize it.

 

[gianmarco]

Food for thought: If you completely remove all of Cam's rushing numbers (no yards and no TDs), he still would have finished with 315ish points, good enough for QB12-14 range around guys like D Carr and Alex Smith and not that far behind the cluster of Rodgers/Stafford/Rivers/Eli/Cousins this year.

Just on his passing numbers alone.

 

[BWill]

What does everyone see happening with Denvers RB situation next year.

I love CJ Anderson (Yes, I am an owner from last year.) He's been running well as of late. Does he return to form next year as starter?

 

[Arodin]

What does everyone see happening with Denvers RB situation next year.

I love CJ Anderson (Yes, I am an owner from last year.) He's been running well as of late. Does he return to form next year as starter?

With Hillman a free agent, Anderson looks to hold that position by default, but I'd expect Denver to do something with either draft or FA to add competition. Anderson's fate likely depends on who that person is and how well they perform in TC.

 

[ZWK]

I'm trying to decide what to do with Newton. I can definitely see a case in his favor. He has been the 3rd best QB since he entered the league in terms of VBD or fantasy points per game, behind only Brees & Rodgers. (Though the fact that Rodgers is ahead of him is a case in favor of Rodgers, as is the fact that Brees did that at ages 32-36.)

Here's a case for being worried about how well Newton's (and Wilson's) running will hold up.

The 5 best running QBs who played in both their 20s and their 30s (so that we can see aging patterns) are Vick, McNabb, Culpepper, McNair, and Cunningham. Here is a graph of how their rushing production varied with age.

The general pattern is: peak at ages 22-26, worse at ages 27-29, and only modest rushing value at ages 30+. McNabb, Culpepper, and McNair did not have a single season over 28 yards per game at age 27+. Cunningham did have a big rushing season at age 29, but he (along with McNabb, Culpepper, and McNair) did not have a single season over 22 yards per game at age 30+. (The pattern for touchdowns is similar but noisier.) That is 4 out of the 5 who had significant declines in their mid-to-late 20s and didn't add much value as a runner in any season in their 30s.

Vick aged better than the others as a runner. He had one of the best rushing seasons of his career at age 30, and continued to put up good rushing numbers into his 30s, although he did decline somewhat after age 30 (especially in terms of TDs).

If we try to get a larger sample, we're looking at quarterbacks who are even less similar to guys like Newton & Wilson. The next 5 QBs who I'd pick as good runners (who were around in both their 20s and 30s) are Steve Young, Kordell Stewart, Greg Landry, Steve Grogan, Mark Brunell. 3 of those 5 had a similar decline in their 20s (Landry, Grogan, Brunell). Young broke the pattern with a vengeance and kept up his success as a runner deep into his 30s. Kordell Stewart also broke the pattern: his last season as a starter came at age 31, but he ran just as well as ever that season.

We could also look at RB aging patterns for comparison, which seems to involve similar timing with a lot of RBs hitting the wall in their late 20s.

Newton is entering his age 27 season, and Wilson is a few months older so he just had his age 27 season. There is a decent case to be made that they'll age better than the previous running QBs (based on them being better runners, or having done a better job of avoiding injuries) but the time to start looking out for the possibility of a decline is now, not several years away.

My impression is that Newton has more designed runs and takes more contact, while Wilson has more scrambles and is more likely to avoid contact. That seems like a reason to be more optimistic about Wilson's aging than about Newton's.

 

[Biabreakable]

Concerning the QB rushing I do think Newton and Wilson are unique in that they have pretty consistently run the ball 100 or more times during the course of the season. This may be in part influenced by the zone read option and how effective these two QB have been running it.

Looking back through the examples of QB who have run the ball a lot most of them did not have multiple seasons of 100 or more rushing attempts as Newton and Wilson have.

McNair only had one 100+ rushing attempt season, although he had many that were 70 to 80 rushing attempts, that is still a difference of more than one rushing attempt per game, which is significant. McNair dealt with injuries later on in his career that I think contributed to him running the ball less as he got older. His last 70+ rushing attempt season occurred when he was 29 years old. He did have a season of 45 rushing attempts at age 33. This was also the only season he played a full 16 games since 2002 when he had 82 rushing attempts.

Randall Cunningham had two seasons over 100 rushing attempts at age 26 and 27. He missed the entire 1991 season then when returning in 1992 he had 87 rushing attempts at age 29. In 1993 he only played in four games. In 1994 at age 31 Cunningham ran the ball 65 times in 14 games, this would have been 74 rushing attempts over 16 games. Cunningham rushing attempts fall off drastically from age 32 on.

Other running QB such as Steve Young only ran the ball 50 to 70 rimes over the course of the season. If you set the rushing attempts threshold for QB at 3.2 rushing attempts/game that is about 50 or more over the course of the season. If you did include QB who run the ball 50 or more times in a year you would be including Andy Dalton and I am sure a lot more QB than the ones you mentioned. I think the 70+ rushing attempts is pretty rare so hard to see that level of attempts continuing throughout the players career. Aaron Rodgers has run the ball between 50 and 60 times when he plays most of the games for example. McNabb did have two seasons of over 80 rushing attempts and one at 70 but for the most part he ran the ball 40 to 50 times a year.

Fran Tarkenton known as "the scrambler" never had more than 62 rushing attempts. This was over 14 game seasons. 62 is 4.43 rushing attempts per game which would be 71 rushing attempts over 16 games.

Depending on your scoring system these rushing QB can be worth a lot more. For example in 4TD for passing TD Cams rushing TD are worth a lot more than they would be in a league that awards 6 points for thrown TD.

When the decline as runners does seem to be similar to the pattern with RB where a drop happens at age 29 and a more significant drop occurs at age 32.

The competitive advantage of these two QB is due to the consistency in rushing attempts in part because of the read option. Colin Kaepernick for example has had similar rushing attempts using the read option as Newton and Wilson, although obviously he has been less proficient as a passer.

 

[ZWK]

Tight ends. Assuming 0.5 PPR, 12 TE starters, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 8/26/15.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Rob Gronkowski NE 27.3 (1)
2 2 Jordan Reed WAS 26.2 (12)
2 3 Travis Kelce KC 26.9 (3)
2 4 Tyler Eifert CIN 26.0 (4)
2 5 Zach Ertz PHI 25.8 (5)
3 6 Greg Olsen CAR 31.5 (7)
3 7 Jimmy Graham SEA 29.8 (2)
3 8 Eric Ebron DET 23.4 (6)
3 9 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 23.9 (15)
4 10 Gary Barnidge CLE 30.9 unr
4 11 Delanie Walker TEN 32.1 (22)
4 12 Julius Thomas JAX 28.2 (9)
4 13 Martellus Bennett CHI 29.5 (10)
5 14 Ladarius Green SD 26.3 (11)
5 15 Richard Rodgers GB 24.6 (21)
5 16 Coby Fleener IND 27.9 (14)

5 17 Maxx Williams BAL 22.4 (18)
5 18 Jordan Cameron MIA 28.1 (8)

5 19 Dwayne Allen IND 26.5 (13)
5 20 Charles Clay BUF 27.5 (17)

5 21 Will Tye NYG 24.8 unr

5 22 Kyle Rudolph MIN 26.8 (19)
5 23 Jace Amaro NYJ 24.2 (16)
5 24 Antonio Gates SD 36.2 (23)
6 25 Ben Watson NO 35.7 unr
6 26 MyCole Pruitt MIN 24.4 (29)
6 27 Gavin Escobar DAL 25.6 (27)
6 28 Clive Walford OAK 24.9 (28)
6 29 Jason Witten DAL 34.3 (24)
6 30 Heath Miller PIT 33.9 (30)
6 31 Dennis Pitta BAL 31.2 (33)
6 32 Zach Miller CHI 31.9 unr
7 33 Vance McDonald SF 26.2 (48)
7 34 Crockett Gilmore BAL 24.8 unr
7 35 Jacob Tamme ATL 32.5 (37)
7 36 Josh Hill NO 26.3 (20)
7 37 Jared Cook STL 29.4 (35)
7 38 Owen Daniels DEN 33.8 (26)

7 39 Niles Paul WAS 27.1 (39)

7 40 Jeff Heuerman DEN 23.8 (45)

7 41 Vernon Davis DEN 32.6 (32)
7 42 Mychal Rivera OAK 26.0 (40)
7 43 Derek Carrier WAS 26.1 (36)
8 44 Ryan Griffin HOU 26.6 unr
8 45 Luke Willson SEA 26.6 (44)
8 46 Troy Niklas ARI 24.0 (41)
8 47 Demetrius Harris KC 25.1 (43)
8 48 Virgil Green DEN 28.1 (31)
8 49 Tyler Kroft CIN 23.9 (46)
8 50 Scott Chandler NE 31.2 (51)
8 51 C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU 24.9 (34)
8 52 Larry Donnell NYG 27.8 (25)

Gronk is Gronk.

Next tier is a bunch of young TEs who have already had a starting TE season. Reed has flashed the most value, but injury risk keeps him close to the rest of the group. Eifert vs. Kelce is a tossup. Eifert was a better prospect and scored more fpts this year, but he was heavily TD dependent. Kelce's 2014 was the best season of either of them in terms of per-snap production, but his 2015 totals were almost the same despite a large increase in snaps and some improvement to his team's passing offense (he actually might have been hurt by that improvement, as Alex Smith learned to pass to WRs). People who are predicting a 2016 breakout for Ertz didn't pay close enough attention to 2015, when he finished the year 7th among TEs in receiving yards. Still, Ertz is a half-tier back on the rest of these guys because I think he has somewhat less promising upside (especially with Kelly gone).

In tier 3, Olsen is the proven vet, Graham is the vet with more upside but more risk, and Ebron & ASJ are the most promising young prospects who aren't there yet. ASJ missed a bunch of time this year, but he was TE8 in ppg and 2nd in yards per snap.

Tier 4 has the vets who are less proven or who have less upside. These guys could move around a bit as we get a better sense of their redraft value for 2016.

Tier 5 has a mix of young guys who are less promising, and mid-career guys who have disappointed recently. Upside factors into the order pretty heavily, including the upside of potentially playing with Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If Fleener is re-signed and Allen is not, how far does Fleener move up? Did you consider Swoope at all?

I would put Walford a lot higher. Biggest positives are pedigree and Carr but that's enough to put him as a high TE2 (which is what his ADP is).

Gillmore played much better than Maxx, and he has some pedigree.

Brate's DVOA is pretty high and TB is a good spot if ASJ went south. Would drop some guys like Carrier for him, esp TE premium.

I would do a WTH pickup of O'Shaughnessy over Demetrius Harris if I had the spot. Better receiver.

 

[ZWK]

If Fleener is re-signed and Allen is not, how far does Fleener move up? Did you consider Swoope at all?

I would put Walford a lot higher. Biggest positives are pedigree and Carr but that's enough to put him as a high TE2 (which is what his ADP is).

Gillmore played much better than Maxx, and he has some pedigree.

Brate's DVOA is pretty high and TB is a good spot if ASJ went south. Would drop some guys like Carrier for him, esp TE premium.

I would do a WTH pickup of O'Shaughnessy over Demetrius Harris if I had the spot. Better receiver.

Good comment.

I can see a case for moving Gillmore & Walford higher. High-end TE2 seems too high for Walford, though. Carr isn't on the level of guys like Rodgers, Brees, or Luck; at least not yet. And Walford's draft pedigree isn't that good - he was drafted 20ish picks after Jace Amaro and Gavin Escobar (who are both about the same age as him). Gillmore was competent enough as a starter; he doesn't seem to have tons of upside but he was only in his 2nd year so who knows.

I actually haven't looked that closely at the low-end TE prospects (Carrier, Harris, Brate, O'Shaughnessy), partly because I don't think those guys are really worth rostering in the format that these rankings are for.

Fleener would probably jump to the top of his tier or the bottom of the next tier if he re-signed and seemed to be the guy at TE on Indy's roster.

 

[Tau837]

4) Let's look at these passing #'s this year:

Wilson: 329/483 for 4024 yards, 34 passing TDs, 8 INTs (Russell's first 4000 yd year, btw)

Cam: 296/495 for 3837 yards, 35 passing TDs, 10 INTs

I'm not seeing where Wilson is the significantly better passer. Yes, he has a higher completion % and YPA, but I don't get points for those. And Cam isn't losing his job anytime soon because of a lower completion %or YPA. Cam's numbers, viewed without a name next to them, are indicative of a very good passing QB. Roughly the same attempts, less than 190 yds passing difference, 2 INTs different, and Cam with 1 more passing TD. If anything, Cam has more room for improvement than Russell does.

Wilson is a significantly better real life passer. I agree that Newton has more room to improve as a passer than Wilson, however I don't believe he will ever be as good a passer as Wilson is. As noted above, being a better passer doesn't necessarily translate into a big edge in fantasy points.

Newton has been in the league for 5 years and has completed less than 60% of his passes for 7.5 YPA, which has led him to a career passer rating of 88.2. That's who he is as a passer. This year, he had a big spike in TD passes, thanks mainly to a great connection with Ginn, who caught a lot of deep TDs. I do not expect that Cam will repeat his 7.1% TD percentage again, and he may not come particularly close to it again.

For however long Newton maintains his strong rushing performance, particularly the TDs, he will have an edge. Once that fades, he will likely be a QB2 based on his passing. So how one ranks Newton vs. Wilson seems to be largely dependent on one's expectation for how long Newton can sustain his rushing edge.

IMO now is the perfect time to trade Newton in dynasty leagues that value QBs.

 

[simey]

Newton has been in the league for 5 years and has completed less than 60% of his passes for 7.5 YPA, which has led him to a career passer rating of 88.2. That's who he is as a passer. This year, he had a big spike in TD passes, thanks mainly to a great connection with Ginn, who caught a lot of deep TDs. I do not expect that Cam will repeat his 7.1% TD percentage again, and he may not come particularly close to it again.

Ginn dropped many what would have been TD passes from Cam this year, so his TD percentage could have been better. I expect Cam to throw more TD passes next year with Kelvin Benjamin back. I don't know if Cotchery will be there again, but Funchess will have some experience under him, Ginn should be there as well as Philly, and Olsen is always good.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Tight end landscape really is pretty bleak. After #5, all the guys are either old or completely unproven. That said, still couldnt take Graham at #7 given his age, his lack of use on Seattle and particularly that devestating injury few come back from.

 

[ZWK]

Tight end landscape really is pretty bleak. After #5, all the guys are either old or completely unproven. That said, still couldnt take Graham at #7 given his age, his lack of use on Seattle and particularly that devestating injury few come back from.

It's less bleak than it was 3 years ago when I started this thread. Back then, everyone after #2 was either old or completely unproven. The consensus for TE3 was either Witten or V Davis.

I may be underweighting Graham's injury. I do think that I have him in the right tier. The upside is definitely there, given what he did in NO and what Seattle's passing offense did down the stretch.

 

[Tau837]

Newton has been in the league for 5 years and has completed less than 60% of his passes for 7.5 YPA, which has led him to a career passer rating of 88.2. That's who he is as a passer. This year, he had a big spike in TD passes, thanks mainly to a great connection with Ginn, who caught a lot of deep TDs. I do not expect that Cam will repeat his 7.1% TD percentage again, and he may not come particularly close to it again.

Ginn dropped many what would have been TD passes from Cam this year, so his TD percentage could have been better. I expect Cam to throw more TD passes next year with Kelvin Benjamin back. I don't know if Cotchery will be there again, but Funchess will have some experience under him, Ginn should be there as well as Philly, and Olsen is always good.

So you expect him to throw more than 35 TD passes next season? I'll take the under, but I totally understand why those who expect him to perform like that as a passer going forward would rank him above Wilson.

 

[ZWK]

4) Let's look at these passing #'s this year:

Wilson: 329/483 for 4024 yards, 34 passing TDs, 8 INTs (Russell's first 4000 yd year, btw)

Cam: 296/495 for 3837 yards, 35 passing TDs, 10 INTs

I'm not seeing where Wilson is the significantly better passer. Yes, he has a higher completion % and YPA, but I don't get points for those. And Cam isn't losing his job anytime soon because of a lower completion %or YPA. Cam's numbers, viewed without a name next to them, are indicative of a very good passing QB. Roughly the same attempts, less than 190 yds passing difference, 2 INTs different, and Cam with 1 more passing TD. If anything, Cam has more room for improvement than Russell does.

Wilson is a significantly better real life passer. I agree that Newton has more room to improve as a passer than Wilson, however I don't believe he will ever be as good a passer as Wilson is. As noted above, being a better passer doesn't necessarily translate into a big edge in fantasy points.

Newton has been in the league for 5 years and has completed less than 60% of his passes for 7.5 YPA, which has led him to a career passer rating of 88.2. That's who he is as a passer. This year, he had a big spike in TD passes, thanks mainly to a great connection with Ginn, who caught a lot of deep TDs. I do not expect that Cam will repeat his 7.1% TD percentage again, and he may not come particularly close to it again.

For however long Newton maintains his strong rushing performance, particularly the TDs, he will have an edge. Once that fades, he will likely be a QB2 based on his passing. So how one ranks Newton vs. Wilson seems to be largely dependent on one's expectation for how long Newton can sustain his rushing edge.

IMO now is the perfect time to trade Newton in dynasty leagues that value QBs.

Some more stats:

Newton's QBR by season

2011 56.2

2012 57.6

2013 61.1

2014 54.4

2015 66.1

Wilson's QBR by season

2012 72.5

2013 60.5

2014 70.7

2015 74.9

So 3 of Wilson's 4 seasons are better than Newton's best season, by QBR. Other stats show a similar pattern. For example:

Newton's passing DVOA by season

2011 0.8%

2012 2.0%

2013 1.7%

2014 -14.5%

2015 7.3%

Wilson's passing DVOA by season

2012 19.7%

2013 15.6%

2014 5.5%

2015 24.3%

So 3 of Wilson's 4 seasons are better than Newton's best season, by passing DVOA (though DVOA disagrees with QBR on which season was Wilson's down year).

With Luck I'm going more by reputation, since his efficiency stats haven't been that great.

 

[gianmarco]

Let's clarify a couple things:

First of all, I'm not trying to argue that Cam is a better passer than Wilson. He's not. Wilson has been elite from a passing standpoint, particularly from an efficiency metric. However, those efficiency metrics are most important in determining a couple things, IMO. First is job security. I think we can agree that neither QB is losing their job anytime soon. This isn't Kaepernick we're talking about here, whose fantasy scoring was great but passing wise was so bad that he actually did lose his job. Second is what happens when passing attempts change (either up or down). Other than that, I don't get points for QBR or YPA or DVOA. I get points for yards and TDs and lose points for interceptions. And from that standpoint, Cam has still been very, very good even if not at the level of Wilson.

For sake of comparison, I'm going to throw out Cam's 2014 for 2 reasons: it allows comparing 4 years for both QBs and secondly it was clear that his injuries last year severely hampered what he was able to do because his 2014 season is a complete outlier to his other 4 seasons. So, looking at Wilson vs. Cam, here are a couple of observations:

Wilson's pass attempts: 393, 407, 452, 483. (434 average)

Cam's pass attempts: 517, 485, 473, 496. (492 average)

Looking at this, Wilson's attempts obviously trending upward while Cam's have remained pretty stable. That said, both QBs are in the lower range as most top QBs are in the 550-600 range. So, part of what has held Wilson down has been fewer pass attempts compared to Cam (and other QBs), but it's also not as if Cam is throwing for that many more nor does it mean he can't go up on those numbers once his running declines.

Now, let's look at QB fantasy scoring for both of these QBs when completely removing rushing numbers. The following are fantasy pts for just passing stats.

Wilson's: 240, 254, 240, 321

Cam's: 252, 245. 239, 311

Eerily, almost identical. Of course it took Cam more attempts than WIlson, but over the last 2 yrs of the 4, their attempts were almost the same while the scoring also stayed almost the same. While there was a much bigger discrepancy in their 1st 2 yrs that are compared, when Wilson's attempts went up and essentially matched Cam's, their fantasy scoring passing numbers were equivalent. So, while the metrics say Wilson was a better passer, the final fantasy numbers just don't bear that out nearly as much, particularly over the last 2 yrs. If you look at fantasy pts/attempt, they are very similar those last 2 yrs.

So, now one question to ask is is Wilson that much better of a passer over Cam than Cam is over Wilson at running the ball? And the answer is an emphatic no. This is where Cam gains that huge edge (as noted in your posts, admittedly). In particular rushing TDs (Wilson has 12 CAREER rushing TDs and Cam had 10 just this past season and 14 as a rookie). And this is why Cam has outscored Wilson by so much overall. His rushing advantage is larger than his passing "disadvantage".

The next question is: When do Cam's rushing totals start to decline? Well, if you think they start to decline in the next 2-3 years, then I completely agree that you should consider putting Wilson ahead of Cam. I don't think it's a given that Wilson will outdo him as a fantasy passer because we don't know if Wilson's attempts will keep going up and we also don't know if Cam's wouldn't either. And, when looking at the last 2 yrs where their attempts are almost equivalent, their fantasy passing scoring has been as well. Thus, it's possible that Cam could continue to match Wilson as a fantasy passing QB. It's possible that Cam could actually start to outproduce him if they have him pass more. And, from an efficiency standpoint, it would be very hard for Wilson to improve what he's done while Cam has room to grow there. In essence, the only way Wilson can hit the elite tier as a passing fantasy QB is to get into the 550-600 attempt range. No way to tell that will happen, especially in Seattle given their style of play. And there's no guarantee if he did that (especially as a result of him not running anymore) that his efficiency numbers would stay as high as they are. Part of what makes him (and Cam) so effective is their threat to run the ball. Thus, while Wilson is the better passer at this point, I can't say with complete certainty that he would be the better fantasy passing QB in the next few years when both of them stop running as much. I think Wilson's fantasy value is as closely tied to his rushing pts as Cam's.

Back to the question I asked about when Cam will decline with running the ball, again, if you think it happens in 2-3 years, then yes, you might want to be cautious. However, at 27 yrs of age, and given the type of runner he is and his size, I think he's pretty safe for > 3 yrs. And once you start getting beyond 3 years, I think it's WAY too premature to downgrade him for a potential decline.

To summarize this lengthy and possibly incoherent rambling, I think in order to rank Wilson ahead of Cam today you need to believe each of the following:

1) Cam's rushing will decline in the next 3 yrs or less

2) Wilson's passing attempts will increase into the 550-600 range starting ~3 yrs from now (since his rushing should similarly decline with Cam)

3) Cam's passing attempts will not increase into that 550-600 range starting ~3 yrs from now.

If Cam's rushing doesn't decline in 3 yrs or less, then you're being too premature in downgrading him. If Wilson doesn't get in that 550-600 range, then when his rushing declines within the next 3 yrs, it doesn't matter how efficient he is, he will not remain an elite level fantasy QB. And even if Cam's rushing declines AND Wilson's attempts get into the 550+ range, if Cam's attempts similarly increase, then his fantasy production may stay very similar to Wilson as it has over the last 2 yrs.

Overall, I think Wilson's passing fantasy value is being overestimated and both QBs future rushing value being underestimated due to a fear of dropoff. At age 29 or 30, I would be more concerned, but not right now for either. I have Wilson ranked #3 overall moreso because of his rushing ability than his passing ability even though he has elite passing metrics.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Bortles is interesting just because he had those receivers, but so much of his production is garbage time and/or in meaningless games.

I see this said a lot, but is it really true? I'm not saying that it's not, necessarily, but I don't recall Jacksonville getting blown out a lot and being constantly in furious comeback mode.

I see Bortles as a modern day Favre. He's a gunslinger. He'll have his share of bad interceptions, but the stats will be there at the end of the day. He also adds some decent rushing stats which help from a fantasy perspective.

I think his rookie season was just so bad that people's view of him are somewhat tainted. He was the No. 3 overall pick (so pedigree is there), has the prototypical size, has above average arm strength and mobility. Not sure why we've seen his peak in only his second season.

FWIW, Bortles led the league by a substantial margin in terms of production in the 2nd half of games while trailing by 8+ points. He had 1413 yards and 13 TDs. Tannehill (1234) and Winston (1158) were the only other players with over 1,000 yards. Andrew Luck (10) was the only other player with more than 8 passing touchdowns. (No, really.)

Some of that was just Bortles being really efficient, though. Tannehill had more pass attempts, and Winston had the same number. Bortles averaged 9.1 YPA and had a 109 passer rating trailing by 8+ points in the second half.

Edit: The Jags had 35 passing TDs vs. 5 rushing TDs this year. That's a huge, huge outlier and is guaranteed to regress.

 

[Tau837]

Edit: The Jags had 35 passing TDs vs. 5 rushing TDs this year. That's a huge, huge outlier and is guaranteed to regress.

I like Bortles, and I don't think the "garbage time" stats are particularly meaningful to determining his dynasty value... but this is a compelling fact to remember, at least in the near term.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Edit: The Jags had 35 passing TDs vs. 5 rushing TDs this year. That's a huge, huge outlier and is guaranteed to regress.

I like Bortles, and I don't think the "garbage time" stats are particularly meaningful to determining his dynasty value... but this is a compelling fact to remember, at least in the near term.

I actually wrote about garbage time earlier this year with respect to DeAndre Hopkins. My finding at the time: if we defined "garbage time" as "trailing by 14+ points", Hopkins led the league in "garbage time" receiving yards by a substantial margin.

The problem? DeAndre Hopkins also ranked 9th in the NFL in receiving yards *OUTSIDE* of garbage time. DeAndre Hopkins had a crap-ton of yards, and so he was at or near the top of the leaderboard in every single split. And Houston, in particular, was terrible, so Hopkins spent a much higher percentage of his time on the field trailing big than did, say, Antonio Brown. Hopkins had more than three times as many garbage-time snaps as the average NFL receiver at that point of the year.

34.3% of Hopkins' yards came in "garbage time", (defined, again, as trailing by 14+ points). 33.0% of Houston's total offensive snaps came in garbage time. 37.6% of Houston's pass attempts came in garbage time. 41.0% of Houston's passing yards came in garbage time. Hopkins averaged 1.52 yards per offensive snap when the team was down by 14+ points, and 1.44 yards per offensive snap when the team was not; over a full season, that would work out to a difference of about 80 yards, give or take.

So Hopkins' production during garbage time wasn't at all disproportionate to what you'd expect given his production outside of garbage time and the amount of time he spent in garbage time. And I strongly suspect that if I ran a similar analysis for Blake Bortles, I'd return a similar result. Which is why I hate holding "garbage time" against a player; usually it's done in a half-baked way that doesn't at all measure whether the player's production was at all out of line with what we should have expected.

(As an aside: Andrew Luck's production without question *WAS* disproportionately concentrated during garbage time this year. But I have no reason to believe that that's anything other than random numbers behaving randomly over a small sample; I've yet to see any studies showing any predictive value whatsoever to information like this.)

 

[voiceofunreason]

Edit: The Jags had 35 passing TDs vs. 5 rushing TDs this year. That's a huge, huge outlier and is guaranteed to regress.

I like Bortles, and I don't think the "garbage time" stats are particularly meaningful to determining his dynasty value... but this is a compelling fact to remember, at least in the near term.

I actually wrote about garbage time earlier this year with respect to DeAndre Hopkins. My finding at the time: if we defined "garbage time" as "trailing by 14+ points", Hopkins led the league in "garbage time" receiving yards by a substantial margin.

The problem? DeAndre Hopkins also ranked 9th in the NFL in receiving yards *OUTSIDE* of garbage time. DeAndre Hopkins had a crap-ton of yards, and so he was at or near the top of the leaderboard in every single split. And Houston, in particular, was terrible, so Hopkins spent a much higher percentage of his time on the field trailing big than did, say, Antonio Brown. Hopkins had more than three times as many garbage-time snaps as the average NFL receiver at that point of the year.

34.3% of Hopkins' yards came in "garbage time", (defined, again, as trailing by 14+ points). 33.0% of Houston's total offensive snaps came in garbage time. 37.6% of Houston's pass attempts came in garbage time. 41.0% of Houston's passing yards came in garbage time. Hopkins averaged 1.52 yards per offensive snap when the team was down by 14+ points, and 1.44 yards per offensive snap when the team was not; over a full season, that would work out to a difference of about 80 yards, give or take.

So Hopkins' production during garbage time wasn't at all disproportionate to what you'd expect given his production outside of garbage time and the amount of time he spent in garbage time. And I strongly suspect that if I ran a similar analysis for Blake Bortles, I'd return a similar result. Which is why I hate holding "garbage time" against a player; usually it's done in a half-baked way that doesn't at all measure whether the player's production was at all out of line with what we should have expected.

(As an aside: Andrew Luck's production without question *WAS* disproportionately concentrated during garbage time this year. But I have no reason to believe that that's anything other than random numbers behaving randomly over a small sample; I've yet to see any studies showing any predictive value whatsoever to information like this.)

See Stafford. Like Bortes played with a great wr, had a ton of garbage time stats and was hyped up to the moon. When the garbage went away his stats plummeted

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

8 46 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (31)

Hey ZWK, good stuff but I'd like to make a case for DGB.

In his rookie season, he started out slow.

Over the first 11 games TEN WR Dorial Green-Beckham produced:

- 16 receptions

- 243 yards

- 2 TDs

Average per game:

- 1,45 receptions per game

- 22,09 yards per game

- ,18TDs per game

Over the final 5 games he produced:

- 16 receptions

- 306 yards

- 1 TD

Average per game

- 3,2 receptions per game

- 61.2 yards per game

- .20 TDs per game

He showed a significant increase in production over the final month of his rookie season and I believe the Titans will utilize his size/strength/frame more in the red-zone in 2016.

He should be ranked higher than the 46th best dynasty WR IMHO.

 

[maf005]

Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

8 46 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (31)

Hey ZWK, good stuff but I'd like to make a case for DGB.

In his rookie season, he started out slow.

Over the first 11 games TEN WR Dorial Green-Beckham produced:

- 16 receptions

- 243 yards

- 2 TDs

Average per game:

- 1,45 receptions per game

- 22,09 yards per game

- ,18TDs per game

Over the final 5 games he produced:

- 16 receptions

- 306 yards

- 1 TD

Average per game

- 3,2 receptions per game

- 61.2 yards per game

- .20 TDs per game

He showed a significant increase in production over the final month of his rookie season and I believe the Titans will utilize his size/strength/frame more in the red-zone in 2016.

He should be ranked higher than the 46th best dynasty WR IMHO.

I'd be curious to know DGB's per snap or per target numbers.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

8 46 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (31)

Hey ZWK, good stuff but I'd like to make a case for DGB.

In his rookie season, he started out slow.

Over the first 11 games TEN WR Dorial Green-Beckham produced:

- 16 receptions

- 243 yards

- 2 TDs

Average per game:

- 1,45 receptions per game

- 22,09 yards per game

- ,18TDs per game

Over the final 5 games he produced:

- 16 receptions

- 306 yards

- 1 TD

Average per game

- 3,2 receptions per game

- 61.2 yards per game

- .20 TDs per game

He showed a significant increase in production over the final month of his rookie season and I believe the Titans will utilize his size/strength/frame more in the red-zone in 2016.

He should be ranked higher than the 46th best dynasty WR IMHO.

I'd be curious to know DGB's per snap or per target numbers.

Rotowire will give you both target and snap counts. 2016 DGB had 67 targets in 580 snaps.

He had a lot of garbage games early where he was on the field but not targeted. And obviously his catch rate is bad.

Still his DVOA is mediocre (as in "not bad enough to be worried about", better than Funchess/Agholor).