Shanahanigans
Footballguy
What is the reasoning on Chris Conley being so low? I can understand the 50s or 60s, but 84 seems particularly low given his upside.
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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (5 Viewers)
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ZWK
Footballguy
Tyrell Williams - Good catch, JWB. I missed him when I was adding people this preseason. He should be in there at WR77 or so.
Justin Blackmon - I'd guess he has a 5-10% chance of eventually getting things together, coming back, and having a top 20 WR season. Maybe worth rostering for years just for that chance; it depends on things like roster size.
Nelson Agholor - He's a first rounder who had a bad rookie season. See also: Michael Floyd, Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, and Plaxico Burress (along with plenty of guys who actually were busts).
Chris Conley - I have him rated roughly where I did right after he was drafted. Third rounder, not that great a prospect coming in. Playing with Alex Smith is a bad situation for a deep threat WR.
Sammy Watkins vs. Mike Evans - Watkins had a top 10 fantasy season in 2015, with excellent efficiency stats, and he looked good doing it. It wasn't at the level of Beckham's 2014, but it was basically what we'd want to see from him. (In case you don't like pro-rating, over his last 16 games Watkins has 74/1334/10 receiving.) With Evans we're still hoping that he puts it all together and stops having ugly games like the one last year against the Giants.
Phillip Dorsett - First round receiver playing with Andrew Luck. Now seems to be earning significant playing time. There is a lot to like there. I'm not sure how someone could be excited by Moncrief and not be excited by Dorsett too.
Stefon Diggs - He had a "good for a rookie 5th rounder" season, but not the kind of season that makes me think that he's likely to become his team's go-to wide receiver or someone with a lot of fantasy value. Part of the concern is how little he produced after the first 4 games (305 yards in 9 games). I'd much rather have the first rounder playing with Luck, the more electric (and more promising as a prospect) Lockett, or the guy who already has a 1000-yard season in Hurns.
Brandon Marshall vs. Larry Fitzgerald - Marshall is a 2nd rounder in redraft, Fitz is going a few rounds later. That makes a huge difference for these guys, since you're basically buying about 2 years of that level of production.
Martavis Bryant - Through 21 career games, he has averaged 1038 yards and 11.4 TDs per 16 games. His per snap stats are much more impressive than that. A lot like Josh Gordon in that there's basically no cap on his upside if he can make it onto the field (though Gordon has demonstrated more on the field, and found his way back onto the field this season). Bryant's WR32 slot already includes a large downgrade for suspension risk.
Michael Floyd & Tyler Lockett - These are interesting cases; I'll try to write some more about them in a bit. I am thinking now that Floyd should be a few spots higher.
Justin Blackmon - I'd guess he has a 5-10% chance of eventually getting things together, coming back, and having a top 20 WR season. Maybe worth rostering for years just for that chance; it depends on things like roster size.
Nelson Agholor - He's a first rounder who had a bad rookie season. See also: Michael Floyd, Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, and Plaxico Burress (along with plenty of guys who actually were busts).
Chris Conley - I have him rated roughly where I did right after he was drafted. Third rounder, not that great a prospect coming in. Playing with Alex Smith is a bad situation for a deep threat WR.
Sammy Watkins vs. Mike Evans - Watkins had a top 10 fantasy season in 2015, with excellent efficiency stats, and he looked good doing it. It wasn't at the level of Beckham's 2014, but it was basically what we'd want to see from him. (In case you don't like pro-rating, over his last 16 games Watkins has 74/1334/10 receiving.) With Evans we're still hoping that he puts it all together and stops having ugly games like the one last year against the Giants.
Phillip Dorsett - First round receiver playing with Andrew Luck. Now seems to be earning significant playing time. There is a lot to like there. I'm not sure how someone could be excited by Moncrief and not be excited by Dorsett too.
Stefon Diggs - He had a "good for a rookie 5th rounder" season, but not the kind of season that makes me think that he's likely to become his team's go-to wide receiver or someone with a lot of fantasy value. Part of the concern is how little he produced after the first 4 games (305 yards in 9 games). I'd much rather have the first rounder playing with Luck, the more electric (and more promising as a prospect) Lockett, or the guy who already has a 1000-yard season in Hurns.
Brandon Marshall vs. Larry Fitzgerald - Marshall is a 2nd rounder in redraft, Fitz is going a few rounds later. That makes a huge difference for these guys, since you're basically buying about 2 years of that level of production.
Martavis Bryant - Through 21 career games, he has averaged 1038 yards and 11.4 TDs per 16 games. His per snap stats are much more impressive than that. A lot like Josh Gordon in that there's basically no cap on his upside if he can make it onto the field (though Gordon has demonstrated more on the field, and found his way back onto the field this season). Bryant's WR32 slot already includes a large downgrade for suspension risk.
Michael Floyd & Tyler Lockett - These are interesting cases; I'll try to write some more about them in a bit. I am thinking now that Floyd should be a few spots higher.
ZWK
Footballguy
More on Lockett, and an argument with myself on Floyd:
Tyler Lockett: I tend to be relatively conservative about moving young WRs up based on what they've flashed in the NFL. There are a lot of receivers who flash skills as a rookie, and only a few of them turn into stars. People don't seem to be very good at distinguishing Allen Robinsons from Cordarelle Pattersons.
Good performance over a small number of plays doesn't necessarily translate into sustained success. Impressive performance at some aspects of the WR role doesn't necessarily translate into becoming a top WR who is a master of the whole craft. Success in a complementary role doesn't necessarily translate into success as the offense's primary option when the defense has game-planned around you. So I don't move young receivers with moderate statlines as far as some people do from where I rate them as prospects coming into the league.
Michael Floyd: My point about Lockett covers some of this. We can't really know if he "was set to break out" if he'd been healthy a year ago, and flashing for a 7-game stretch in a fantasy WR3 season is not a dealmaker. But there are a bunch of interesting points on both sides with Floyd, let me go into some more depth in debate format.
Pessimistic Case: He has been in the league for four years and hasn't been better than a fantasy WR3. He was his team's third-most productive receiver last year. If he's going to be a star, wouldn't we have seen more by now?
Optimistic Reply: He is a talented receiver with a first round pedigree, and the size/athleticism to match. He is part of a stacked receiving core so the ball gets spread around and he doesn't put up huge totals. Last season he started the year with dislocated fingers, and then went on a huge seven-game stretch midseason. And there have been previous elite receivers who had a fifth year breakout after having only pretty good numbers for their first 3 years, at least in terms of yardage - Jeremy Maclin (though he had 10 TDs his 2nd year), Hines Ward (though he somehow made the Pro Bowl his 4th year), even sort of Terrell Owens (though he was a fantasy stud his 3rd year with 14 TDs).
Pessimistic Reply: His talent is part of what's in question; plenty of "first round talents" aren't so good against NFL competition. I'm concerned about cherry picking one hot stretch - 7 games out of his 66-game career. He did have that nice 7 game stretch in weeks 8-16, but then Floyd totaled 79 yards over his last 3 games (wk17 & 2 playoff games). And it's a lot easier to look good on a high-flying offense like last year's Cardinals, with 35-year-old Carson Palmer having a career year and the defensive secondary spread thin. Each of the receivers had some good games. Palmer is due for some regression this year, and we don't know who Floyd's quarterback will be a couple years from now (but he'll probably be worse than Palmer 2015).
Optimistic Reply: A prototypical WR like Floyd has a better chance succeeding with average or mediocre quarterbacking than a small speedy guy like Brown. Arizona 2015 might have been a great situation for efficiency stats (and Floyd's efficiency stats were great, e.g. 8th among WRs in receiving DVOA), but it was not so good for volume stats. Floyd does seem good enough to attract more targets once he's no longer playing alongside Fitz & Brown, and that sort of change does typically lead to increased fantasy production (despite attracting more defensive attention).
Pessimistic Reply: It's not that clear that Floyd would attract a bunch more targets. In 2013 the Cardinals' third receiver was Andre Roberts and Floyd (in his second year) still only had 113 targets in 16 games and fantasy WR3 production. In 2014 John Brown was just a rookie out of Pittsburg State and Floyd managed only 99 targets (3 less than Brown, even though Brown played 2/3 as many snaps). Interestingly, in 2015 John Brown seemingly moved ahead of Floyd in the pecking order, playing more snaps than Floyd all season along and widening the target gap to 12.
Jumping out of the debate format - I think that there are strong points on both sides. I think I've been correct in dropping Floyd a bit from the WR30 slot where I had him after his rookie year when I started these rankings (since he is now less likely to turn out to be elite), but he does still have more upside than I was giving him credit for so he should be a few spots higher than WR43 where I had him a few days ago.
Tyler Lockett: I tend to be relatively conservative about moving young WRs up based on what they've flashed in the NFL. There are a lot of receivers who flash skills as a rookie, and only a few of them turn into stars. People don't seem to be very good at distinguishing Allen Robinsons from Cordarelle Pattersons.
Good performance over a small number of plays doesn't necessarily translate into sustained success. Impressive performance at some aspects of the WR role doesn't necessarily translate into becoming a top WR who is a master of the whole craft. Success in a complementary role doesn't necessarily translate into success as the offense's primary option when the defense has game-planned around you. So I don't move young receivers with moderate statlines as far as some people do from where I rate them as prospects coming into the league.
Michael Floyd: My point about Lockett covers some of this. We can't really know if he "was set to break out" if he'd been healthy a year ago, and flashing for a 7-game stretch in a fantasy WR3 season is not a dealmaker. But there are a bunch of interesting points on both sides with Floyd, let me go into some more depth in debate format.
Pessimistic Case: He has been in the league for four years and hasn't been better than a fantasy WR3. He was his team's third-most productive receiver last year. If he's going to be a star, wouldn't we have seen more by now?
Optimistic Reply: He is a talented receiver with a first round pedigree, and the size/athleticism to match. He is part of a stacked receiving core so the ball gets spread around and he doesn't put up huge totals. Last season he started the year with dislocated fingers, and then went on a huge seven-game stretch midseason. And there have been previous elite receivers who had a fifth year breakout after having only pretty good numbers for their first 3 years, at least in terms of yardage - Jeremy Maclin (though he had 10 TDs his 2nd year), Hines Ward (though he somehow made the Pro Bowl his 4th year), even sort of Terrell Owens (though he was a fantasy stud his 3rd year with 14 TDs).
Pessimistic Reply: His talent is part of what's in question; plenty of "first round talents" aren't so good against NFL competition. I'm concerned about cherry picking one hot stretch - 7 games out of his 66-game career. He did have that nice 7 game stretch in weeks 8-16, but then Floyd totaled 79 yards over his last 3 games (wk17 & 2 playoff games). And it's a lot easier to look good on a high-flying offense like last year's Cardinals, with 35-year-old Carson Palmer having a career year and the defensive secondary spread thin. Each of the receivers had some good games. Palmer is due for some regression this year, and we don't know who Floyd's quarterback will be a couple years from now (but he'll probably be worse than Palmer 2015).
Optimistic Reply: A prototypical WR like Floyd has a better chance succeeding with average or mediocre quarterbacking than a small speedy guy like Brown. Arizona 2015 might have been a great situation for efficiency stats (and Floyd's efficiency stats were great, e.g. 8th among WRs in receiving DVOA), but it was not so good for volume stats. Floyd does seem good enough to attract more targets once he's no longer playing alongside Fitz & Brown, and that sort of change does typically lead to increased fantasy production (despite attracting more defensive attention).
Pessimistic Reply: It's not that clear that Floyd would attract a bunch more targets. In 2013 the Cardinals' third receiver was Andre Roberts and Floyd (in his second year) still only had 113 targets in 16 games and fantasy WR3 production. In 2014 John Brown was just a rookie out of Pittsburg State and Floyd managed only 99 targets (3 less than Brown, even though Brown played 2/3 as many snaps). Interestingly, in 2015 John Brown seemingly moved ahead of Floyd in the pecking order, playing more snaps than Floyd all season along and widening the target gap to 12.
Jumping out of the debate format - I think that there are strong points on both sides. I think I've been correct in dropping Floyd a bit from the WR30 slot where I had him after his rookie year when I started these rankings (since he is now less likely to turn out to be elite), but he does still have more upside than I was giving him credit for so he should be a few spots higher than WR43 where I had him a few days ago.
ZWK
Footballguy
Preseason running back rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/16/16.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Todd Gurley RAM 22.1 (2)
2 2 LeVeon Bell PIT 24.5 (1)
2 3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 21.1 (3)
2 4 David Johnson ARI 24.7 (4)
4 5 Lamar Miller HOU 25.4 (6)
4 6 Devonta Freeman ATL 24.5 (5)
4 7 Mark Ingram NO 26.7 (7)
4 8 Eddie Lacy GB 26.3 (9)
5 9 Derrick Henry TEN 22.1 (13)
5 10 Jamaal Charles KC 29.7 (8)
5 11 LeSean McCoy BUF 28.1 (11)
5 12 Doug Martin TB 27.6 (10)
5 13 Jeremy Hill CIN 23.9 (12)
5 14 Carlos Hyde SF 25.0 (14)
5 15 Thomas Rawls SEA 23.1 (16)
5 16 Adrian Peterson MIN 31.4 (17)
5 17 Giovani Bernard CIN 24.8 (18)
5 18 Ameer Abdullah DET 23.2 (15)
5 19 T.J. Yeldon JAX 22.9 (20)
5 20 Melvin Gordon SD 23.4 (21)
6 21 C.J. Anderson DEN 25.6 (22)
6 22 Duke Johnson CLE 22.9 (28)
6 23 Latavius Murray OAK 25.5 (24)
6 24 Jerick McKinnon MIN 24.3 (33)
6 25 Jeremy Langford CHI 24.7 (26)
6 26 Christine Michael SEA 25.8 (55)
6 27 Dion Lewis NE 25.9 (19)
6 28 Matt Jones WAS 23.5 (25)
6 29 Matt Forte NYJ 30.7 (27)
6 30 Tevin Coleman ATL 23.4 (40)
6 31 Jay Ajayi MIA 23.2 (30)
7 32 Jonathan Stewart CAR 29.4 (29)
7 33 Ryan Mathews PHI 28.9 (32)
7 34 Karlos Williams FA 23.3 (23)
7 35 Arian Foster MIA 30.0 (35)
7 37 Kenyan Drake MIA 22.6 (31)
7 36 Kenneth Dixon BAL 22.6 (41)
7 38 DeMarco Murray TEN 28.5 (38)
7 39 Spencer Ware KC 24.8 (56)
7 40 Charles Sims TB 26.0 (34)
7 41 C.J. Prosise SEA 22.3 (39)
7 42 Isaiah Crowell CLE 23.6 (46)
8 43 Frank Gore IND 33.3 (43)
8 44 Danny Woodhead SD 31.7 (42)
8 45 Paul Perkins NYG 21.8 (44)
8 46 Devontae Booker DEN 24.3 (45)
8 47 Rashad Jennings NYG 31.4 (48)
8 48 DeAndre Washington OAK 23.5 (69)
8 49 Chris Ivory JAX 28.4 (49)
8 50 Bilal Powell NYJ 27.8 (50)
8 51 Andre Ellington ARI 27.6 (37)
8 52 James White NE 24.6 (52)
8 53 DeAngelo Williams PIT 33.4 (57)
8 54 Justin Forsett BAL 30.9 (36)
8 55 Terrance West BAL 25.6 unr
8 56 LeGarrette Blount NE 29.7 (54)
8 57 Theo Riddick DET 25.3 (62)
8 58 Jordan Howard CHI 21.8 (47)
8 59 Darren Sproles PHI 33.2 (84)
8 60 C.J. Spiller NO 29.1 (59)
9 61 Javorius Allen BAL 25.0 (61)
9 62 Jonathan Williams BUF 22.6 (64)
9 63 Tyler Ervin HOU 22.9 (65)
9 64 Shane Vereen NYG 27.5 (63)
9 65 Malcolm Brown RAM 23.3 unr
9 66 Ronnie Hillman DEN 25.0 (51)
9 67 Alex Collins SEA 22.0 (60)
9 68 Zach Zenner DET 25.0 (68)
9 69 Wendell Smallwood PHI 22.6 (86)
9 70 Alfred Morris DAL 27.7 (53)
9 71 Charcandrick West KC 25.3 (58)
9 72 Khiry Robinson NYJ 26.7 (66)
9 73 Rob Kelley WAS 23.9 unr
9 74 Darren McFadden DAL 29.0 (81)
10 75 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR 26.2 (76)
10 76 Mike Davis SF 23.5 unr
10 77 Keith Marshall WAS 22.5 (73)
10 78 Denard Robinson JAX 25.9 (67)
10 79 James Starks GB 30.5 (74)
10 80 Andre Williams NYG 24.0 unr
10 81 Chris Johnson ARI 30.9 (75)
10 82 Daniel Lasco NO 23.9 (70)
10 83 Mike Gillislee BUF 25.8 unr
10 84 Trent Richardson BAL 26.1 (71)
10 85 Darius Jackson DAL 22.8 (72)
10 86 Dwayne Washington DET 22.4 unr
10 87 Alfred Blue HOU 25.3 (77)
10 88 David Cobb TEN 23.2 (78)
10 89 Benny Cunningham RAM 26.2 (82)
10 90 Tim Hightower NO 30.3 unr
10 91 Shaun Draughn KC 28.7 unr
10 92 Terrell Watson CLE 23.0 unr
10 93 Josh Ferguson IND 23.3 unr
10 94 Bishop Sankey TEN 24.0 (83)
10 95 Travaris Cadet NO 27.6 (85)
10 96 Robert Turbin IND 26.7 (88)
10 97 Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 24.7 (79)
10 98 Tre Mason RAM 23.1 (87)
10 99 KaDeem Carey CHI 23.8 unr
10 100 Stevan Ridley IND 27.6 (80)
Le'Veon Bell has dropped a spot and a tier since his suspension news came out, but he's still at #2 because 1) he has still never failed an NFL drug test and 2) he is still in stage 2 of the substance abuse program. See Adam Harstad for more on why that matters (shorter nonsubscriber's version).
Doug Martin vs. LeSean McCoy is a close call.
My tier 5 (RB9-20) has a lot of players but the guys at the bottom of the tier still seem relatively close to the guys at the top.
I am higher than most on Jerick McKinnon, Christine Michael, and Karlos Williams. For young(ish) RBs I pay a lot of attention to talent, and to who has the potential to become a strong starter for several years. These 3 have that potential, with McKinnon & Michael having elite athleticism and generally looking good with their limited touches (including this preseason) and Williams producing at an elite level over a smallish sample size last year. Michael has had problems with the mental side of things, getting to the point where his coaches trust him to be on the field, but he now seems to have matured to the point where he has that trust. The things that I liked about him entering the league are still true, and the negatives that I hadn't expected are now greatly diminished, so my view on him is approaching where it was at the start (though he does have some lingering negatives). Karlos Williams's problems (with conditioning, etc.) are still in his present, so he's a tier back of the other two.
Arian Foster is ranked exactly where I had him in May, 2 months before he signed with Miami (RB35). That might be a sign that I was too high on him in May. At the time I was thinking that he had a chance of returning to his 2014 form & role, but so far this preseason has been more like 2015 (much better as a receiver than as a runner) and with more of a timeshare.
Tier 9 guys seem only borderline rosterable, though I guess they should all be rostered by someone.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Todd Gurley RAM 22.1 (2)
2 2 LeVeon Bell PIT 24.5 (1)
2 3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 21.1 (3)
2 4 David Johnson ARI 24.7 (4)
4 5 Lamar Miller HOU 25.4 (6)
4 6 Devonta Freeman ATL 24.5 (5)
4 7 Mark Ingram NO 26.7 (7)
4 8 Eddie Lacy GB 26.3 (9)
5 9 Derrick Henry TEN 22.1 (13)
5 10 Jamaal Charles KC 29.7 (8)
5 11 LeSean McCoy BUF 28.1 (11)
5 12 Doug Martin TB 27.6 (10)
5 13 Jeremy Hill CIN 23.9 (12)
5 14 Carlos Hyde SF 25.0 (14)
5 15 Thomas Rawls SEA 23.1 (16)
5 16 Adrian Peterson MIN 31.4 (17)
5 17 Giovani Bernard CIN 24.8 (18)
5 18 Ameer Abdullah DET 23.2 (15)
5 19 T.J. Yeldon JAX 22.9 (20)
5 20 Melvin Gordon SD 23.4 (21)
6 21 C.J. Anderson DEN 25.6 (22)
6 22 Duke Johnson CLE 22.9 (28)
6 23 Latavius Murray OAK 25.5 (24)
6 24 Jerick McKinnon MIN 24.3 (33)
6 25 Jeremy Langford CHI 24.7 (26)
6 26 Christine Michael SEA 25.8 (55)
6 27 Dion Lewis NE 25.9 (19)
6 28 Matt Jones WAS 23.5 (25)
6 29 Matt Forte NYJ 30.7 (27)
6 30 Tevin Coleman ATL 23.4 (40)
6 31 Jay Ajayi MIA 23.2 (30)
7 32 Jonathan Stewart CAR 29.4 (29)
7 33 Ryan Mathews PHI 28.9 (32)
7 34 Karlos Williams FA 23.3 (23)
7 35 Arian Foster MIA 30.0 (35)
7 37 Kenyan Drake MIA 22.6 (31)
7 36 Kenneth Dixon BAL 22.6 (41)
7 38 DeMarco Murray TEN 28.5 (38)
7 39 Spencer Ware KC 24.8 (56)
7 40 Charles Sims TB 26.0 (34)
7 41 C.J. Prosise SEA 22.3 (39)
7 42 Isaiah Crowell CLE 23.6 (46)
8 43 Frank Gore IND 33.3 (43)
8 44 Danny Woodhead SD 31.7 (42)
8 45 Paul Perkins NYG 21.8 (44)
8 46 Devontae Booker DEN 24.3 (45)
8 47 Rashad Jennings NYG 31.4 (48)
8 48 DeAndre Washington OAK 23.5 (69)
8 49 Chris Ivory JAX 28.4 (49)
8 50 Bilal Powell NYJ 27.8 (50)
8 51 Andre Ellington ARI 27.6 (37)
8 52 James White NE 24.6 (52)
8 53 DeAngelo Williams PIT 33.4 (57)
8 54 Justin Forsett BAL 30.9 (36)
8 55 Terrance West BAL 25.6 unr
8 56 LeGarrette Blount NE 29.7 (54)
8 57 Theo Riddick DET 25.3 (62)
8 58 Jordan Howard CHI 21.8 (47)
8 59 Darren Sproles PHI 33.2 (84)
8 60 C.J. Spiller NO 29.1 (59)
9 61 Javorius Allen BAL 25.0 (61)
9 62 Jonathan Williams BUF 22.6 (64)
9 63 Tyler Ervin HOU 22.9 (65)
9 64 Shane Vereen NYG 27.5 (63)
9 65 Malcolm Brown RAM 23.3 unr
9 66 Ronnie Hillman DEN 25.0 (51)
9 67 Alex Collins SEA 22.0 (60)
9 68 Zach Zenner DET 25.0 (68)
9 69 Wendell Smallwood PHI 22.6 (86)
9 70 Alfred Morris DAL 27.7 (53)
9 71 Charcandrick West KC 25.3 (58)
9 72 Khiry Robinson NYJ 26.7 (66)
9 73 Rob Kelley WAS 23.9 unr
9 74 Darren McFadden DAL 29.0 (81)
10 75 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR 26.2 (76)
10 76 Mike Davis SF 23.5 unr
10 77 Keith Marshall WAS 22.5 (73)
10 78 Denard Robinson JAX 25.9 (67)
10 79 James Starks GB 30.5 (74)
10 80 Andre Williams NYG 24.0 unr
10 81 Chris Johnson ARI 30.9 (75)
10 82 Daniel Lasco NO 23.9 (70)
10 83 Mike Gillislee BUF 25.8 unr
10 84 Trent Richardson BAL 26.1 (71)
10 85 Darius Jackson DAL 22.8 (72)
10 86 Dwayne Washington DET 22.4 unr
10 87 Alfred Blue HOU 25.3 (77)
10 88 David Cobb TEN 23.2 (78)
10 89 Benny Cunningham RAM 26.2 (82)
10 90 Tim Hightower NO 30.3 unr
10 91 Shaun Draughn KC 28.7 unr
10 92 Terrell Watson CLE 23.0 unr
10 93 Josh Ferguson IND 23.3 unr
10 94 Bishop Sankey TEN 24.0 (83)
10 95 Travaris Cadet NO 27.6 (85)
10 96 Robert Turbin IND 26.7 (88)
10 97 Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 24.7 (79)
10 98 Tre Mason RAM 23.1 (87)
10 99 KaDeem Carey CHI 23.8 unr
10 100 Stevan Ridley IND 27.6 (80)
Le'Veon Bell has dropped a spot and a tier since his suspension news came out, but he's still at #2 because 1) he has still never failed an NFL drug test and 2) he is still in stage 2 of the substance abuse program. See Adam Harstad for more on why that matters (shorter nonsubscriber's version).
Doug Martin vs. LeSean McCoy is a close call.
My tier 5 (RB9-20) has a lot of players but the guys at the bottom of the tier still seem relatively close to the guys at the top.
I am higher than most on Jerick McKinnon, Christine Michael, and Karlos Williams. For young(ish) RBs I pay a lot of attention to talent, and to who has the potential to become a strong starter for several years. These 3 have that potential, with McKinnon & Michael having elite athleticism and generally looking good with their limited touches (including this preseason) and Williams producing at an elite level over a smallish sample size last year. Michael has had problems with the mental side of things, getting to the point where his coaches trust him to be on the field, but he now seems to have matured to the point where he has that trust. The things that I liked about him entering the league are still true, and the negatives that I hadn't expected are now greatly diminished, so my view on him is approaching where it was at the start (though he does have some lingering negatives). Karlos Williams's problems (with conditioning, etc.) are still in his present, so he's a tier back of the other two.
Arian Foster is ranked exactly where I had him in May, 2 months before he signed with Miami (RB35). That might be a sign that I was too high on him in May. At the time I was thinking that he had a chance of returning to his 2014 form & role, but so far this preseason has been more like 2015 (much better as a receiver than as a runner) and with more of a timeshare.
Tier 9 guys seem only borderline rosterable, though I guess they should all be rostered by someone.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Possibly I am blind, but I think you are missing Tyler Gaffney. Someone inexplicably dropped Blount in one of my leagues during final cuts, but still I am pretty sure I will be looking to add Gaffney over him during BB waivers.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
People are dumping on Drake. He is being labeled a special teams player at this point. There's a lot of confirmation bias that because he already has had an injury during camp and they signed an old dude to take any role he might have, that he is what the post-draft naysayers thought he would be. His value is closer to Tyler Ervin at this point. Do you believe or are you hanging on to last threads of draft pedigree? I had a couple drafts right after the Foster signing where I took him in the late 2nd because he seemed like an okay value as last of the tier. But his real world value has only dropped, at least until Foster gets hurt again.
ZWK
Footballguy
I missed the news on Gaffney. I guess put him on tier 9, RB70 or so.ItsOnlytheRiver said:
I think you're right that I didn't downgrade Drake enough. Offseason injuries generally aren't that strong an indicator of problems, but they are more concerning for guys with Drake's history of injuries and limited workload. He should be down a tier, near Perkins & Booker.thriftyrocker said:
ZWK
Footballguy
Preseason tight end rankings. Assuming 0.5 PPR, 12 TE starters, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/20/16.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Rob Gronkowski NE 27.3 (1)
2 2 Jordan Reed WAS 26.2 (2)
2 3 Tyler Eifert CIN 26.0 (4)
2 4 Travis Kelce KC 26.9 (3)
3 5 Zach Ertz PHI 25.8 (5)
3 6 Eric Ebron DET 23.4 (7)
3 7 Greg Olsen CAR 31.5 (6)
3 8 Coby Fleener NO 27.9 (11)
4 9 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 23.9 (9)
4 10 Ladarius Green PIT 26.3 (8)
4 11 Jimmy Graham SEA 29.8 (10)
4 12 Hunter Henry SD 21.7 (13)
4 13 Delanie Walker TEN 32.1 (14)
4 14 Julius Thomas JAX 28.2 (15)
4 15 Dwayne Allen IND 26.5 (16)
4 16 Tyler Higbee RAM 23.7 (20)
4 17 Gary Barnidge CLE 30.9 (12)
5 18 Austin Hooper ATL 21.8 (21)
5 19 Clive Walford OAK 24.9 (28)
5 20 Maxx Williams BAL 22.4 (18)
5 21 Jared Cook GB 29.4 (19)
5 22 Martellus Bennett NE 29.5 (17)
5 23 Charles Clay BUF 27.5 (23)
5 24 Jordan Cameron MIA 28.1 (22)
5 25 Antonio Gates SD 36.2 (24)
6 26 Jace Amaro NYJ 24.2 (26)
6 27 Kyle Rudolph MIN 26.8 (25)
6 28 Will Tye NYG 24.8 (29)
6 29 Virgil Green DEN 28.1 (55)
6 30 Vance McDonald SF 26.2 (39)
6 31 MyCole Pruitt MIN 24.4 (27)
6 32 Jeff Heuerman DEN 23.8 (32)
6 33 Jason Witten DAL 34.3 (30)
6 34 Richard Rodgers GB 24.6 (31)
6 35 Seth DeValve CLE 23.6 (33)
6 36 Zach Miller CHI 31.9 (35)
6 37 Cameron Brate TB 25.2 (36)
6 38 Gavin Escobar DAL 25.6 (34)
6 39 Jesse James PIT 22.2 (53)
7 40 Dennis Pitta BAL 31.2 (38)
7 41 Troy Niklas ARI 24.0 (50)
7 42 Ryan Griffin HOU 26.6 (51)
7 43 Josh Hill NO 26.3 (37)
7 44 Crockett Gilmore BAL 24.8 (41)
7 45 Darren Waller BAL 24.0 (40)
7 46 Garrett Celek SF 28.3 (42)
7 47 Nick Vannett SEA 23.5 (43)
7 48 Jacob Tamme ATL 32.5 (44)
7 49 Niles Paul WAS 27.1 (45)
8 50 Tyler Kroft CIN 23.9 unr
8 51 Demetrius Harris KC 25.1 (54)
8 52 Vernon Davis FA 32.6 (47)
8 53 Mychal Rivera OAK 26.0 (48)
8 54 Luke Willson SEA 26.6 (52)
8 55 Larry Donnell NYG 27.8 unr
8 56 Derek Carrier WAS 26.1 (49)
I'm finding tier 4 (TE10-17) the hardest to rank. You could randomly reshuffle that tier and the results would probably still look plausible.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Rob Gronkowski NE 27.3 (1)
2 2 Jordan Reed WAS 26.2 (2)
2 3 Tyler Eifert CIN 26.0 (4)
2 4 Travis Kelce KC 26.9 (3)
3 5 Zach Ertz PHI 25.8 (5)
3 6 Eric Ebron DET 23.4 (7)
3 7 Greg Olsen CAR 31.5 (6)
3 8 Coby Fleener NO 27.9 (11)
4 9 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 23.9 (9)
4 10 Ladarius Green PIT 26.3 (8)
4 11 Jimmy Graham SEA 29.8 (10)
4 12 Hunter Henry SD 21.7 (13)
4 13 Delanie Walker TEN 32.1 (14)
4 14 Julius Thomas JAX 28.2 (15)
4 15 Dwayne Allen IND 26.5 (16)
4 16 Tyler Higbee RAM 23.7 (20)
4 17 Gary Barnidge CLE 30.9 (12)
5 18 Austin Hooper ATL 21.8 (21)
5 19 Clive Walford OAK 24.9 (28)
5 20 Maxx Williams BAL 22.4 (18)
5 21 Jared Cook GB 29.4 (19)
5 22 Martellus Bennett NE 29.5 (17)
5 23 Charles Clay BUF 27.5 (23)
5 24 Jordan Cameron MIA 28.1 (22)
5 25 Antonio Gates SD 36.2 (24)
6 26 Jace Amaro NYJ 24.2 (26)
6 27 Kyle Rudolph MIN 26.8 (25)
6 28 Will Tye NYG 24.8 (29)
6 29 Virgil Green DEN 28.1 (55)
6 30 Vance McDonald SF 26.2 (39)
6 31 MyCole Pruitt MIN 24.4 (27)
6 32 Jeff Heuerman DEN 23.8 (32)
6 33 Jason Witten DAL 34.3 (30)
6 34 Richard Rodgers GB 24.6 (31)
6 35 Seth DeValve CLE 23.6 (33)
6 36 Zach Miller CHI 31.9 (35)
6 37 Cameron Brate TB 25.2 (36)
6 38 Gavin Escobar DAL 25.6 (34)
6 39 Jesse James PIT 22.2 (53)
7 40 Dennis Pitta BAL 31.2 (38)
7 41 Troy Niklas ARI 24.0 (50)
7 42 Ryan Griffin HOU 26.6 (51)
7 43 Josh Hill NO 26.3 (37)
7 44 Crockett Gilmore BAL 24.8 (41)
7 45 Darren Waller BAL 24.0 (40)
7 46 Garrett Celek SF 28.3 (42)
7 47 Nick Vannett SEA 23.5 (43)
7 48 Jacob Tamme ATL 32.5 (44)
7 49 Niles Paul WAS 27.1 (45)
8 50 Tyler Kroft CIN 23.9 unr
8 51 Demetrius Harris KC 25.1 (54)
8 52 Vernon Davis FA 32.6 (47)
8 53 Mychal Rivera OAK 26.0 (48)
8 54 Luke Willson SEA 26.6 (52)
8 55 Larry Donnell NYG 27.8 unr
8 56 Derek Carrier WAS 26.1 (49)
I'm finding tier 4 (TE10-17) the hardest to rank. You could randomly reshuffle that tier and the results would probably still look plausible.
bostonfred
Footballguy
4 9 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 23.9 (9)4 10 Ladarius Green PIT 26.3 (8)4 11 Jimmy Graham SEA 29.8 (10)4 12 Hunter Henry SD 21.7 (13)4 13 Delanie Walker TEN 32.1 (14)4 14 Julius Thomas JAX 28.2 (15)4 15 Dwayne Allen IND 26.5 (16)4 16 Tyler Higbee RAM 23.7 (20)4 17 Gary Barnidge CLE 30.9 (12)
For me this isn't that hard
1 asj - best combination of youth and immediate scoring potential. The fact he's playing with a quality young qb makes a breakout more valuable than anyone else in this tier.
2 hunter henry - i don't think i've seen anyone project this guy to be a bust. The main knock on him is that he didn't catch a lot of touchdowns in college, but that was because he was a really good goal line blocker for a run heavy team. Now he's going to learn from a guy contending for the most tight end touchdowns in nfl history and play with the guy that threw them to him.
3 delanie walker - gronk, olsen, walker. That's the top 3 scorers at tight end the last two years. Walker is the best receiving option for mariotta and is going to face a lot of tired defenders. The immediate production is just too good.
Then, at least to me, there's a tier break.
1. Dwayne allen - meh. Should be weak starter production for years, but if he doesn't break out this year, the dream is dead. Better than a lot of other options i guess.
2. Tyler higbee - young te, young qb, no receivers. Not a bad formula for success. I normally hate young tight ends but the path to immediate playing time and the near total lack of competition for targets makes a year one or two breakout very possible.
3. Gary barnidge - if i were certain he would be as good this year as he was last year i would take him at the top of this tier, but the combination of age and risk hurts. But you don't win leagues because your tight end got you 600 yards and 6 tds, so the upside is worth the risk.
4. Julius thomas - i think a lot of people put him higher but the truth is this guy just isn't that good. Playing with manning made him look like a legitimate tight end. Bortles is good enough to make him serviceable each year but he's in his prime, played 12 healthy games with bortles during a year where bortles was chucking it a ton, and he ended with 450/5 which is pace for 600 and 6. Yuck.
5. Ladarius green - the good news is tgar he looked good in flashes, plays with a top qb, and is still relatively young. The bad news is he's going to start the season on the pup list with an ankle and/or concussion headaches, he moved from a very tight end friendly offense to a wr heavy offense that got consistently ok production from heath miller, and while he's young, he could retire at any time. So you get to clog your roster waiting to find out if he's any good, hoping he plays this year and doesn't retire, and if he does eventually play well you'll still have a hard time getting full exit value the way jordan reed owners do. One caveat - this is a great guy to target if you're selling off veterans for a total rebuild and can wait for the breakout.
Another tier or more down
Jimmy graham - even if he weren't coming back from a brutal injury, i wouldn't be that interested. He was the beneficiary of brees liking big targets. I think he can play again, but it's a steep uphill climb to ever being good.
I also think you are too low on martellus bennett, vance mcdonald, clive walford and kyle rudolph, but otherwise love this as always
ZWK
Footballguy
ASJ, Green, and Graham would all be ahead of this tier if not for recent troubles with injuries or (in ASJ's case) with their coach/mentality/role. The question is how serious those troubles are and how far to drop them. Then there's the rookies -- Higbee a 4th rounder who has the athleticism and had a nice offseason, Henry who has the reputation & draft pedigree but with mediocre athleticism and perhaps limited upside. Allen who is in this tier thanks to his quarterback rather than his own skills. Barnidge & Walker who are getting up there in years and have only a short track record of success (where their success has probably at least in part due to their team's lack of good or reliable WRs).
For the others: Rudolph has been in the league 5 years, has never topped 500 yards, and only has a season and a half of borderline fantasy relevance (which came in 2012-13). I'm not particularly excited about McDonald or Walford as players - the main thing to like about them is that they seem to have won their teams' starting jobs. Bennett is now his team's TE2, and I don't think we're going to see a repeat of the Patriots' 2011 offenses where 67% of the targets went to Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez.
ZWK
Footballguy
Two big differences, @Just Win Baby:
1. In one case I'm talking about where I rank players, in the other I'm talking about how I change their rankings. Things like athleticism and draft pedigree are strong indicators of upside, which factor into my rankings from the start. Guys like Corey Coleman already flashed a bunch in college (and at the combine and in the draft), so I already have lots of evidence of his upside and ranked him accordingly. A few good games like Diggs had are less strong evidence of upside, so they don't earn a player as high a ranking.
2. A typical league starts 12 TEs (or QBs) and 36 WRs, which makes upside much more important for TEs. Solid WRs are worth a lot more than solid TEs, and there are lot more WRs who will wind up being worth more than a baselineish amount. Jason Witten, over the past 5 years, has been worth about as much as Torrey Smith or Crabtree (WR36ish), whereas Gronk is up there among the 5 WRs (Marshall, Julio, etc.). Moving up the TE rankings past a solid guy who will play like Jason Witten 2011-15 over the next 5 years should be as easy as moving up the WR rankings past a solid WR who is about to have 5 years like Torrey Smith 2011-15. In other words, it's harder to climb up the WR rankings because there are more WRs with reasonably high expected VBD. So a guy who has flashed upside but might be totally worthless (like Ladarius Green or Martavis Bryant) has more value relative to TEs than relative to WRs.
1. In one case I'm talking about where I rank players, in the other I'm talking about how I change their rankings. Things like athleticism and draft pedigree are strong indicators of upside, which factor into my rankings from the start. Guys like Corey Coleman already flashed a bunch in college (and at the combine and in the draft), so I already have lots of evidence of his upside and ranked him accordingly. A few good games like Diggs had are less strong evidence of upside, so they don't earn a player as high a ranking.
2. A typical league starts 12 TEs (or QBs) and 36 WRs, which makes upside much more important for TEs. Solid WRs are worth a lot more than solid TEs, and there are lot more WRs who will wind up being worth more than a baselineish amount. Jason Witten, over the past 5 years, has been worth about as much as Torrey Smith or Crabtree (WR36ish), whereas Gronk is up there among the 5 WRs (Marshall, Julio, etc.). Moving up the TE rankings past a solid guy who will play like Jason Witten 2011-15 over the next 5 years should be as easy as moving up the WR rankings past a solid WR who is about to have 5 years like Torrey Smith 2011-15. In other words, it's harder to climb up the WR rankings because there are more WRs with reasonably high expected VBD. So a guy who has flashed upside but might be totally worthless (like Ladarius Green or Martavis Bryant) has more value relative to TEs than relative to WRs.
ffinmyblood
Footballguy
Jared Cook is getting no love from anyone...He will be the 2nd highest(if not the highest) scoring TE this year behind gronk. Perfect offense for his skills and a legit QB throwing to him. will be a beast in the red zone.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Dropping easy catches? Running the wrong routes? Giving up on plays? What skills are you referring to?
Fool-on-Stoopid
Footballguy
Jared Cook yeah I'm a biased Ram fan but I love this breakdown of the last years Rams offense
Cook begins at 9:45 "The number of drives that Jared cook has killed all by himself with dropped balls is staggering." .... and for the love of god stop throwing if to Cook on 3rd down"
The Film Room Ep 11: Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin vs the Steelers, Cardinals, & Packers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2w-SULm2B8
Rodgers is easily the best QB hes played with but if it hits you in the hands it doesn't matter who threw it Cook=bad. my opinion is biased
Cook begins at 9:45 "The number of drives that Jared cook has killed all by himself with dropped balls is staggering." .... and for the love of god stop throwing if to Cook on 3rd down"
The Film Room Ep 11: Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin vs the Steelers, Cardinals, & Packers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2w-SULm2B8
Rodgers is easily the best QB hes played with but if it hits you in the hands it doesn't matter who threw it Cook=bad. my opinion is biased
ZWK
Footballguy
I bumped Cook a lot when he came to GB. I think he has a reasonable shot at being a strong TE1 this season. But he's very situation-dependent and on a one-year deal. Maybe there's a 50% chance of things clicking in GB and him putting up a good year, and then if he does that he has a 50% chance of re-signing and putting up 3 more good years. That's only 1.25 good years in expectation. I'd rather take a shot on a rookie like Hooper who could become Matt Ryan's #2 target (as Jacob Tamme was last year), or a vet with a tighter hold on his job like Gary Barnidge.
ZWK
Footballguy
Preseason quarterback rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/17/16.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Cam Newton CAR 27.3 (1)
1 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 32.8 (2)
1 3 Russell Wilson SEA 27.8 (3)
1 4 Andrew Luck IND 27.0 (4)
3 5 Marcus Mariota TEN 22.8 (5)
3 6 Jameis Winston TB 22.7 (6)
4 7 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 34.5 (7)
4 8 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27.1 (11)
4 9 Andy Dalton CIN 28.8 (15)
4 10 Blake Bortles JAX 24.7 (12)
4 11 Derek Carr OAK 25.4 (10)
4 12 Jared Goff RAM 21.9 (9)
4 13 Tom Brady NE 39.1 (13)
4 14 Carson Wentz PHI 23.7 (14)
5 15 Matt Ryan ATL 31.3 (8)
5 16 Drew Brees NO 37.6 (18)
5 17 Matthew Stafford DET 28.6 (23)
5 18 Kirk Cousins WAS 28.0 (24)
5 19 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 23.8 (17)
5 20 Dak Prescott DAL 23.1 unr
5 21 Carson Palmer ARI 36.7 (16)
5 22 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28.1 (19)
5 23 Paxton Lynch DEN 22.6 (20)
5 24 Robert Griffin III CLE 26.5 (25)
5 25 Philip Rivers SD 34.7 (22)
5 26 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 24.8 (34)
5 27 Eli Manning NYG 35.7 (26)
6 28 Sam Bradford MIN 28.8 (33)
6 29 Brock Osweiler HOU 25.8 (28)
6 30 Trevor Siemian DEN 24.7 unr
6 31 Blaine Gabbert SF 26.9 (35)
6 32 Tony Romo DAL 36.4 (27)
6 33 Alex Smith KC 34.4 (29)
6 34 Jay Cutler CHI 33.3 (30)
6 35 Colin Kaepernick SF 28.8 (21)
7 36 Bryce Petty NYJ 25.3 (40)
7 37 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 33.8 (31)
7 38 Joe Flacco BAL 31.6 (32)
7 39 Geno Smith NYJ 25.9 (36)
8 40 Christian Hackenberg NYJ 21.5 (37)
8 41 Johnny Manziel CLE 23.7 (38)
8 42 Cody Kessler CLE 23.3 (39)
8 43 A.J. McCarron CIN 26.0 (42)
8 44 Chase Daniel PHI 29.9 (41)
8 45 Brett Hundley GB 23.2 (44)
8 46 Garrett Grayson NO 25.3 (45)
8 47 Jacoby Brissett NE 23.7 (46)
8 48 Case Keenum RAM 28.5 unr
8 49 Shaun Hill MIN 36.6 unr
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Cam Newton CAR 27.3 (1)
1 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 32.8 (2)
1 3 Russell Wilson SEA 27.8 (3)
1 4 Andrew Luck IND 27.0 (4)
3 5 Marcus Mariota TEN 22.8 (5)
3 6 Jameis Winston TB 22.7 (6)
4 7 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 34.5 (7)
4 8 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27.1 (11)
4 9 Andy Dalton CIN 28.8 (15)
4 10 Blake Bortles JAX 24.7 (12)
4 11 Derek Carr OAK 25.4 (10)
4 12 Jared Goff RAM 21.9 (9)
4 13 Tom Brady NE 39.1 (13)
4 14 Carson Wentz PHI 23.7 (14)
5 15 Matt Ryan ATL 31.3 (8)
5 16 Drew Brees NO 37.6 (18)
5 17 Matthew Stafford DET 28.6 (23)
5 18 Kirk Cousins WAS 28.0 (24)
5 19 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 23.8 (17)
5 20 Dak Prescott DAL 23.1 unr
5 21 Carson Palmer ARI 36.7 (16)
5 22 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28.1 (19)
5 23 Paxton Lynch DEN 22.6 (20)
5 24 Robert Griffin III CLE 26.5 (25)
5 25 Philip Rivers SD 34.7 (22)
5 26 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 24.8 (34)
5 27 Eli Manning NYG 35.7 (26)
6 28 Sam Bradford MIN 28.8 (33)
6 29 Brock Osweiler HOU 25.8 (28)
6 30 Trevor Siemian DEN 24.7 unr
6 31 Blaine Gabbert SF 26.9 (35)
6 32 Tony Romo DAL 36.4 (27)
6 33 Alex Smith KC 34.4 (29)
6 34 Jay Cutler CHI 33.3 (30)
6 35 Colin Kaepernick SF 28.8 (21)
7 36 Bryce Petty NYJ 25.3 (40)
7 37 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 33.8 (31)
7 38 Joe Flacco BAL 31.6 (32)
7 39 Geno Smith NYJ 25.9 (36)
8 40 Christian Hackenberg NYJ 21.5 (37)
8 41 Johnny Manziel CLE 23.7 (38)
8 42 Cody Kessler CLE 23.3 (39)
8 43 A.J. McCarron CIN 26.0 (42)
8 44 Chase Daniel PHI 29.9 (41)
8 45 Brett Hundley GB 23.2 (44)
8 46 Garrett Grayson NO 25.3 (45)
8 47 Jacoby Brissett NE 23.7 (46)
8 48 Case Keenum RAM 28.5 unr
8 49 Shaun Hill MIN 36.6 unr
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Surprised Shaun Hill made your list Z. You are too kind there. 
bostonfred
Footballguy
Mariotta and winston in their own tier 3 seems odd to me. I would merge them all with tier 4. I would also move tyrod down a tier, because he's the only one in that group i can see getting replaced next off season. Personally i would move goff and wentz down too because if you offered me goff for any of those guys it would be an easy no.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with Fred in regards to Goff and Wentz. I wouldn't trade most of the tier 5 QB for these guys, so they would be in tier 5 for me. I would still rank them higher than Dak Prescott, Lynch, Garappolo.
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Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
From what I've seen so far and where each landed from an organization standpoint, I'm liking Lynch more than Goff, though I'd rank Wentz above both. Dak is still a bit of a wildcard at this point, could go either way though I'm leaning bullish
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
A few QB missing. I know the end of bench QB are kind of a worthless proposition but weird some guys are listed but other guys aren't.
Thinking NR on Cardale is an oversight. He is behind Tyrod for the foreseeable but a lot of guys listed are buried.
I'd also rank Foles somewhere as his contract with KC is essentially "show me you're better than Alex Smith" with a huge 2nd year team option. Worth a roster spot in some leagues. Getting a decision point on him at the end of the year is a positive as you don't have to hold and hope like Brissett or Hundley types.
A guy I think increased in value as a project QB is Tom Savage. He was rumored when Minnesota was looking. Beat out Weeden to be the backup. O'Brien drafted him and developed him. Would definitely add in Superflex.
Boykin played well enough for SEA not to bring in a veteran backup and would put up enough rushing to be startable.
Stanton has a verbal contract to be the ARI starter after Palmer, which is worth about the same as most verbal contracts, but is something compared to most 3rd stringers.
Could see adding Glennon or Nassib given they are FA in 2017 and could be bridge starters next year.
The spread from Brady/Brees/Palmer is interesting to me. They are similar guys with different degrees of HOF eligibility and all-time-ness. FFC has Brees as QB5 in redraft, Brady as QB7 and Palmer as QB8. I think Brees is too low in your rankings given he should be great this year (if Brady is tier 4 so should Brees), and Palmer is too high but just my opinion on him this year after a dumpy preseason (if Brees is tier 5, Palmer isn't).
Thinking NR on Cardale is an oversight. He is behind Tyrod for the foreseeable but a lot of guys listed are buried.
I'd also rank Foles somewhere as his contract with KC is essentially "show me you're better than Alex Smith" with a huge 2nd year team option. Worth a roster spot in some leagues. Getting a decision point on him at the end of the year is a positive as you don't have to hold and hope like Brissett or Hundley types.
A guy I think increased in value as a project QB is Tom Savage. He was rumored when Minnesota was looking. Beat out Weeden to be the backup. O'Brien drafted him and developed him. Would definitely add in Superflex.
Boykin played well enough for SEA not to bring in a veteran backup and would put up enough rushing to be startable.
Stanton has a verbal contract to be the ARI starter after Palmer, which is worth about the same as most verbal contracts, but is something compared to most 3rd stringers.
Could see adding Glennon or Nassib given they are FA in 2017 and could be bridge starters next year.
The spread from Brady/Brees/Palmer is interesting to me. They are similar guys with different degrees of HOF eligibility and all-time-ness. FFC has Brees as QB5 in redraft, Brady as QB7 and Palmer as QB8. I think Brees is too low in your rankings given he should be great this year (if Brady is tier 4 so should Brees), and Palmer is too high but just my opinion on him this year after a dumpy preseason (if Brees is tier 5, Palmer isn't).
FUBAR
Footballguy
I understand why you do it this way but I'd prefer to see 5 (and 6) split into 5a/5b depending on what the team wanted vet / prospect. For the first few tiers that's not a big issue, although Ben would be 4a perhaps by himself.
Also, Brady, Goff and Wentz should be tier 5. Huge drop imo from the others in tier 4 to those 3. I'd probably take Brees over Brady today.
Also, Brady, Goff and Wentz should be tier 5. Huge drop imo from the others in tier 4 to those 3. I'd probably take Brees over Brady today.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
Disagree. Tiers should mean a reasonable person could trade anyone in that tier for another, even if you like one qb more than the other (meaning, it would be reasonable for one team to trade carr for Dalton even if I think that's a bad deal) but I just can't see anyone trading Dalton or TT for MM or Winston without others wondering WTF. (I'd also have carr and Bortles ahead of the others in tier 4 but
) 
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I understand its difficult to mix old veterans with the promise of youth in rankings.
IMO Eli Manning is in the perfect offense for him. He's finished 7th and 8th among QBs the last two seasons respectively, and the first one of those was working in Beckham as a rookie. Guess I just think he's a really strong bet for another 3+ years of 4400-5000 yards and 30-35 TDs. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if Eli put up career numbers this year. I think you can pretty much plug in Philip Rivers for the same stats too.
After Cam, Wilson, Rodgers, Luck and Brady, I'm not sure that I'd have a major preference with anybody over Manning and Rivers. (at least for the next 3 seasons).
IMO Eli Manning is in the perfect offense for him. He's finished 7th and 8th among QBs the last two seasons respectively, and the first one of those was working in Beckham as a rookie. Guess I just think he's a really strong bet for another 3+ years of 4400-5000 yards and 30-35 TDs. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if Eli put up career numbers this year. I think you can pretty much plug in Philip Rivers for the same stats too.
After Cam, Wilson, Rodgers, Luck and Brady, I'm not sure that I'd have a major preference with anybody over Manning and Rivers. (at least for the next 3 seasons).
bostonfred
Footballguy
I like dalton better than either, but I'm not talking about my rankings. I understand i'm one of the few people who's been beating the dalton drum for years and we can discuss that another time
I think a reasonable person might prefer bortles to mariotta or mariotta to winston or winston to carr or carr to all of them. I don't see a tier break where winston and mariotta belong ahead of bortles or carr. If anything i prefer bortles and carr. It sounds like you're on board.
I honestly don't see a lot of qb for qb trades. Everyone has guys they like and people tend to like guys they have. If i had winston and traded him for dalton i would probably ask for more because i understand the market values, but i think it's fairly even. If someone traded carr for tyrod taylor, though, i would think it's a ripoff. I see the upside of taylor but he also might not be the bills starter next year. He signed a contract extension that gives the bills the right to cut him after this year with no cap hit. That, plus the possibility of rex playing for his job, too, makes tyrod a much riskier option than the other guys in that tier, and that is a lot different than debating how good dalton is or how many years brady and roethlisberger have left.
I think a reasonable person might prefer bortles to mariotta or mariotta to winston or winston to carr or carr to all of them. I don't see a tier break where winston and mariotta belong ahead of bortles or carr. If anything i prefer bortles and carr. It sounds like you're on board.
I honestly don't see a lot of qb for qb trades. Everyone has guys they like and people tend to like guys they have. If i had winston and traded him for dalton i would probably ask for more because i understand the market values, but i think it's fairly even. If someone traded carr for tyrod taylor, though, i would think it's a ripoff. I see the upside of taylor but he also might not be the bills starter next year. He signed a contract extension that gives the bills the right to cut him after this year with no cap hit. That, plus the possibility of rex playing for his job, too, makes tyrod a much riskier option than the other guys in that tier, and that is a lot different than debating how good dalton is or how many years brady and roethlisberger have left.
ZWK
Footballguy
Compare:
QB A: 281/434, 3494 yards, 27 TD, 9 INT, 41 sacks, 10 fumbles, 69.9 QBR, with 103/608/3 rushing
QB B: 277/434, 3469 yards, 23 TD, 7 INT, 41 sacks, 10 fumbles, 67.8 QBR, with 119/649/5 rushing
Who are these 2 QBs? One is Russell Wilson, with his career totals pro-rated down to 16 games (from 64). The other is Tyrod Taylor, with his 2015 season pro-rated up to 16 games (from 14).
My QB rankings are heavily influenced by upside, because the top 5 fantasy QBs are where most of the VBD comes from. Taylor is a great runner and put up strong efficiency numbers last year, which makes me think that he's more likely than Dalton or Carr to break into tier 1 or 2 (even though he's also more likely to bust and find himself out of a job).
Similarly, guys who've been in the league a few years and have averageish numbers are not that exciting, while rookies with elite draft pedigree are pretty exciting even if they haven't looked good in their first offseason - the top of the first round is where a large fraction of top QBs come from. After the 2015 draft I got some flak for ranking the rookies Mariota & Winston 5-6, ahead of "safer bets" like Stafford and Tannehill. I don't like Goff & Wentz as much as I liked Mariota & Winston then (so they aren't ranked as high), but the principle is the same.
Eli & Rivers seem like fine options for this year if you miss out on the top 7 (through Brady, Brees, & Ben), but they (and the rest of that pack of 12 or so QBs) are not that likely to be difference-makers this year. They're both around 35 years old, so even in a moderately optimistic case you're just looking at a couple years of slightly above baseline production.
QB A: 281/434, 3494 yards, 27 TD, 9 INT, 41 sacks, 10 fumbles, 69.9 QBR, with 103/608/3 rushing
QB B: 277/434, 3469 yards, 23 TD, 7 INT, 41 sacks, 10 fumbles, 67.8 QBR, with 119/649/5 rushing
Who are these 2 QBs? One is Russell Wilson, with his career totals pro-rated down to 16 games (from 64). The other is Tyrod Taylor, with his 2015 season pro-rated up to 16 games (from 14).
My QB rankings are heavily influenced by upside, because the top 5 fantasy QBs are where most of the VBD comes from. Taylor is a great runner and put up strong efficiency numbers last year, which makes me think that he's more likely than Dalton or Carr to break into tier 1 or 2 (even though he's also more likely to bust and find himself out of a job).
Similarly, guys who've been in the league a few years and have averageish numbers are not that exciting, while rookies with elite draft pedigree are pretty exciting even if they haven't looked good in their first offseason - the top of the first round is where a large fraction of top QBs come from. After the 2015 draft I got some flak for ranking the rookies Mariota & Winston 5-6, ahead of "safer bets" like Stafford and Tannehill. I don't like Goff & Wentz as much as I liked Mariota & Winston then (so they aren't ranked as high), but the principle is the same.
Eli & Rivers seem like fine options for this year if you miss out on the top 7 (through Brady, Brees, & Ben), but they (and the rest of that pack of 12 or so QBs) are not that likely to be difference-makers this year. They're both around 35 years old, so even in a moderately optimistic case you're just looking at a couple years of slightly above baseline production.
bostonfred
Footballguy
4333 yards, 33 tds, 9 int, 188 rush yards, 4 rush tds
4296 yards, 33 tds. 20 int, 183 rush yards, 2 rush tds
4381 yards, 38 tds, 5 ints, 269 rush yards, 2 rush tds
That's andy dalton in 2015 prorated, andy dalton in 2013 actual, and aaron rodgers 2014 actual, with a healthy cobb and jordy.and medium sized eddie. It's not like tyrod is the only guy putting up big numbers.
When dalton went down last year he was top 5. In 2013 he was top 5. In 2014, eifert, gio, aj green, jones and sanu all got hurt. In the playoffs his leading wide receiver was rex burkhead. I don't mean the guy with the most catches. I mean rex burkhead, their number three running back, played wide receiver because they had nobody left.
The league is littered with running qbs who had a good year then flamed out. From Kordell to Tebow, rg3 to kaepernick, it's easier to find one year wonders than two or three year wonders like culpepper and vick. Newton and wilson look like outliers compared to the field.
I agree with liking tyrod for a one year shot at top 5 numbers. But there's a huge risk with a running qb with less than one successful year under his belt, an injury prone wr1 with no real depth at wr or te behind him, a defensive minded head coach fighting for his job and a contract extension they just negotiated to let them cut him after this year with no cap hit. Much more than there is with a passing qb with multiple top 5 seasons who is signed long term. And the reward is pretty much the same - a top 5 season.
4296 yards, 33 tds. 20 int, 183 rush yards, 2 rush tds
4381 yards, 38 tds, 5 ints, 269 rush yards, 2 rush tds
That's andy dalton in 2015 prorated, andy dalton in 2013 actual, and aaron rodgers 2014 actual, with a healthy cobb and jordy.and medium sized eddie. It's not like tyrod is the only guy putting up big numbers.
When dalton went down last year he was top 5. In 2013 he was top 5. In 2014, eifert, gio, aj green, jones and sanu all got hurt. In the playoffs his leading wide receiver was rex burkhead. I don't mean the guy with the most catches. I mean rex burkhead, their number three running back, played wide receiver because they had nobody left.
The league is littered with running qbs who had a good year then flamed out. From Kordell to Tebow, rg3 to kaepernick, it's easier to find one year wonders than two or three year wonders like culpepper and vick. Newton and wilson look like outliers compared to the field.
I agree with liking tyrod for a one year shot at top 5 numbers. But there's a huge risk with a running qb with less than one successful year under his belt, an injury prone wr1 with no real depth at wr or te behind him, a defensive minded head coach fighting for his job and a contract extension they just negotiated to let them cut him after this year with no cap hit. Much more than there is with a passing qb with multiple top 5 seasons who is signed long term. And the reward is pretty much the same - a top 5 season.
ZWK
Footballguy
I agree that Dalton has shown a lot of promise. I looked into him more closely this summer and moved him up from QB15 to QB9 based on analysis a lot like this. I do think you're overselling him somewhat - his 2015 was very good by any measure, but his 2013 was averageish on the whole (tons of INTs) and his excuses for 2014 aren't that strong (Green missed only 3 games, Bernard missed only 3 games, the Burkhead game was in the playoffs which aren't included in his 3398 & 19 statline). But it's not unheard of for QBs to develop in their late 20s (Brady did it).
I see your RG3 2012 and point you to Foles 2013 and Stafford 2011. Taylor, Dalton, Palmer, Bortles, and Cousins are all candidates for having 2015 as a career year that they never get close to again. Running QBs do seem to be at higher risk of injuries and shortened careers, but they don't seem more prone to being one year wonders. See this list of every QB season since 1980 with at least 30 rushing yards per game, sorted by passing efficiency.
bostonfred
Footballguy
The season ending stats show that Aj green played 13 games. But he didn't really. He was hurt all year. He got turf toe on the opening drive week 2. He came back and played then missed 3 more games with the same turf toe. Again, he came back and played, but the first two games after he came back he was listed as questionable and posted 44 and 23 yards, respectively. He started week 16, but he didn't record a catch - to.be fair, he was covered by talib and jeremy hill was en fuego. He missed the playoffs. A quick glance at the stats says oh aj green was fine but he really wasn't.
Gio bernard got hurt in week 8. He missed 3 games and came back ineffective, prompting the team to turn to jeremy hill the rest of the year.
Marvin jones missed all of 2014.
Tyler eifert caught all 3 of his targets for 37 yards week 1 before getting hurt and going on ir.
I don't think i overstated anything, but if i did, please note that i was just as fair in comparing dalton 2015 with aaron rodgers 2014. It would have been absurd to use rodgers 2015 - you know, because one of his top receivers missed the whole year and another top receiver was hobbled all year and his pass catching running back underperformed. Sounds a lot like dalton 2014 actually except dalton lost eifert too.
The fair case to make against dalton is this - he doesn't have sanu or jones anymore. And eifert is hurt again. Who knows if eifert will be injury prone his entire career. Who knows if boyd and lafell can replace jones and sanu. And dalton has never won games with arm strength.
But look at manning, brady and brees winning games recently. None of them are winning on arm strength. The game has changed to calling plays at the line of scrimmage and finding or creating mismatches and Dalton plays it very well. Dalton right now is arguably the best under 30 pocket passer in the league - there are other guys who may pass him, but he's quietly set the bar pretty high. The team seems committed to giving him good weapons to work with and promoted his qb coach to fill the offensive coordinator vacancy.
The Bills, on the other hand, don't seem particularly committed to who their qb, head coach, wr2, tight end, or offensive coordinator will be in 2017.
I'll just set this mic down here.
ZWK
Footballguy
It feels a little weird to be taking the anti-Dalton side. When I posted these rankings, I thought I might be in for an argument on Dalton in the other direction. I don't know of many other people who have Dalton in the top 10 dynasty QBs - all 6 FBG dynasty rankers (updated in the last 90 days) and 7 of the 8 DLF rankers have him at 12th or worse; one DLF guy does have him at 8th.
Before last season, Dalton was averageish at passing efficiency. His career highs were 56.8 QBR, 6.3 ANY/A, and 5.6% DVOA. For comparison, Rodgers has beaten each of those numbers 7 times in his 8 seasons as a starter (and he beat the QBR number all 8 times). Last year, at age 28 Dalton had a huge season, ranking 5th in QBR, 2nd in ANY/A, 2nd in DVOA, 7th in PFF grade, and up there in various other stats. It might have been a breakout year, with Dalton taking a step up and figuring out how to avoid mistakes. Or it might have been a one-time career year, due to some mix of flukishness and a favorable situation with lots of healthy weapons and a great offensive line in Hue Jackson's well-designed offense.
I don't think he's a safe bet to keep putting up numbers that are only a step below Rodgers, but the possibility is there and (in my eyes) it's enough to put him ahead of most of the young QBs. But I still have him behind Taylor (as described above), Mariota (not as good a season as Taylor, but he was a rookie and a highly touted prospect), and Winston (who doesn't add as much on the ground, but had a solid rookie year as the #1 pick).
Before last season, Dalton was averageish at passing efficiency. His career highs were 56.8 QBR, 6.3 ANY/A, and 5.6% DVOA. For comparison, Rodgers has beaten each of those numbers 7 times in his 8 seasons as a starter (and he beat the QBR number all 8 times). Last year, at age 28 Dalton had a huge season, ranking 5th in QBR, 2nd in ANY/A, 2nd in DVOA, 7th in PFF grade, and up there in various other stats. It might have been a breakout year, with Dalton taking a step up and figuring out how to avoid mistakes. Or it might have been a one-time career year, due to some mix of flukishness and a favorable situation with lots of healthy weapons and a great offensive line in Hue Jackson's well-designed offense.
I don't think he's a safe bet to keep putting up numbers that are only a step below Rodgers, but the possibility is there and (in my eyes) it's enough to put him ahead of most of the young QBs. But I still have him behind Taylor (as described above), Mariota (not as good a season as Taylor, but he was a rookie and a highly touted prospect), and Winston (who doesn't add as much on the ground, but had a solid rookie year as the #1 pick).
ZWK
Footballguy
I don't keep kicker rankings, but if you were making overall dynasty rankings 5 years ago it turns out in hindsight that Stephen Gostkowski belonged squarely among the top 100. Quite possibly among the top 50. He was the #1 kicker 4 years in a row before this season, and the #3 kicker the year before that, so the value adds up. I posted more about that in the kicker thread, including some numbers from one of my dynasty leagues.
His numbers are down so far this year, partly from missing a few kicks, partly from a drop in New England field goal attempts, and partly from New England's horrible Jacoby Brissett game against Buffalo. So right now there is a window where you can probably acquire Gostkowski for a modest cost (or maybe even for free, if his owner dropped him).
The question is whether he'll bounce back, and whether New England will keep playing in a way that makes the next few years for their kicker like the last few years. Seems worth taking a shot at.
His numbers are down so far this year, partly from missing a few kicks, partly from a drop in New England field goal attempts, and partly from New England's horrible Jacoby Brissett game against Buffalo. So right now there is a window where you can probably acquire Gostkowski for a modest cost (or maybe even for free, if his owner dropped him).
The question is whether he'll bounce back, and whether New England will keep playing in a way that makes the next few years for their kicker like the last few years. Seems worth taking a shot at.
ZWK
Footballguy
I don't have an up-to-date list. There should be a few other changes besides the guys you mentioned - Garoppolo up, Bortles, Gabbert, and Palmer down. Brees & Kaepernick up a bit. Probably some others.
The gap between tier 1 and the rest has shrunk, so I might stop skipping over tier 2.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
Yep, FUBAR included that one. 5th-9th is probably a single tier at this point, with Mariota, Winston, Prescott, Carr, and Ryan (not necessarily in that order).
ZWK
Footballguy
End-of-season WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 8/26/16 (or Tyrell Williams here).
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 24.8 (1)
1 2 Mike Evans TB 24.0 (11)
2 3 Julio Jones ATL 28.6 (4)
2 4 Amari Cooper OAK 23.2 (7)
2 5 Sammy Watkins BUF 24.2 (3)
2 6 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 25.2 (2)
2 7 Antonio Brown PIT 29.1 (5)
2 8 A.J. Green CIN 29.1 (8)
3 9 T.Y. Hilton IND 27.8 (12)
3 10 Alshon Jeffery CHI 27.5 (9)
3 11 Allen Robinson JAX 24.0 (6)
3 12 Dez Bryant DAL 28.8 (10)
3 13 Keenan Allen SD 25.3 (15)
3 14 Brandin Cooks NO 23.9 (14)
3 15 Michael Thomas NO 24.5 (42)
4 16 Corey Coleman CLE 23.2 (17)
4 17 Devante Parker MIA 24.6 (19)
4 18 Davante Adams GB 24.7 (50)
4 19 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 26.6 (18)
4 20 Josh Doctson WAS 24.7 (20)
5 21 Stefon Diggs MIN 23.8 (54)
5 22 Doug Baldwin SEA 29.9 (33)
5 23 Jordy Nelson GB 32.3 (28)
5 24 Jarvis Landry MIA 24.8 (22)
5 25 Demaryius Thomas DEN 29.7 (16)
5 26 Donte Moncrief IND 24.1 (29)
5 27 Will Fuller HOU 23.4 (39)
5 28 Jordan Matthews PHI 25.1 (30)
5 29 Sterling Shepard NYG 24.5 (38)
5 30 Kevin White CHI 25.2 (21)
5 31 Michael Crabtree OAK 30.0 (52)
5 32 Terrelle Pryor CLE 28.2 (61)
5 33 Tyrell Williams SD 25.6 (77)
6 34 Randall Cobb GB 27.0 (13)
6 35 Julian Edelman NE 31.3 (26)
6 36 Martavis Bryant PIT 25.7 (32)
6 37 Laquon Treadwell MIN 22.2 (24)
6 38 Tyler Lockett SEA 24.9 (36)
6 39 Josh Gordon CLE 26.4 (25)
6 40 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 30.4 (47)
6 41 Tyreek Hill KC 23.5 unr
6 42 Phillip Dorsett IND 24.7 (35)
6 43 Jeremy Maclin KC 29.3 (23)
6 44 Marvin Jones DET 27.5 (55)
6 45 Cameron Meredith CHI 24.9 unr
6 46 Golden Tate DET 29.1 (31)
7 47 Leonte Carroo MIA 23.6 (37)
7 48 Jamison Crowder WAS 24.2 unr
7 49 Kenny Britt FA 28.9 (72)
7 50 John Brown ARI 27.4 (41)
7 51 Tyler Boyd CIN 23.8 (46)
7 52 Breshad Perriman BAL 24.0 (49)
7 53 Adam Thielen MIN 27.0 unr
7 54 Taylor Gabriel ATL 26.6 unr
7 55 Eric Decker NYJ 30.5 (44)
7 56 Rishard Matthews TEN 27.9 (86)
7 57 Malcolm Mitchell NE 25.1 (60)
7 58 Allen Hurns JAX 25.8 (34)
7 59 Brandon Marshall NYJ 33.4 (27)
8 60 Chris Hogan NE 28.9 (76)
7 61 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 34.0 (45)
7 62 Marqise Lee JAX 25.8 (85)
8 63 Sammie Coates PIT 24.4 (56)
8 64 Devin Funchess CAR 23.3 (40)
8 65 Michael Floyd NE 27.8 (43)
8 66 DeSean Jackson WAS 30.7 (48)
8 67 Willie Snead NO 24.9 (58)
8 68 Mike Wallace BAL 31.1 (71)
8 69 Tajae Sharpe TEN 22.7 (59)
8 70 Kenny Stills MIA 25.4 (75)
8 71 Cole Beasley DAL 28.4 unr
8 72 Robby Anderson NYJ 24.3 unr
8 73 J.J. Nelson ARI 25.4 unr
8 74 Nelson Agholor PHI 24.3 (51)
8 75 Travis Benjamin SD 27.7 (53)
8 76 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 25.3 unr
8 77 Paul Richardson SEA 25.4 (74)
8 78 Dontrelle Inman SD 28.6 unr
8 79 Tavon Austin RAM 26.5 (62)
8 80 Dorial Green-Beckham PHI 24.4 (57)
8 81 Kendall Wright TEN 27.8 (67)
8 82 Braxton Miller HOU 24.8 (68)
9 83 Robert Woods BUF 25.4 (94)
9 84 Pierre Garcon WAS 31.1 (89)
9 85 Brandon LaFell CIN 30.8 (126)
9 86 Terrance Williams DAL 28.0 (102)
9 87 Geronimo Allison GB 23.6 unr
9 88 Bruce Ellington SF 26.0 (70)
9 89 Eli Rogers PIT 24.7 (88)
9 90 Devin Smith NYJ 25.5 (64)
9 91 Justin Blackmon JAX 27.6 (81)
9 92 Chris Conley KC 24.9 (84)
9 93 Percy Harvin BUF 29.3 unr
9 94 DeAndre Smelter SF 25.7 (83)
9 95 Ted Ginn CAR 32.4 (79)
9 96 Mohamed Sanu ATL 28.0 (92)
10 97 Trevor Davis GB 24.2 (91)
10 98 Chris Moore BAL 24.2 (101)
10 99 Jaelen Strong HOU 23.6 (65)
10 100 Jeff Janis GB 26.2 (77)
10 101 Markus Wheaton PIT 26.6 (69)
10 102 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 26.5 (113)
10 103 Jeremy Kerley NYJ 28.8 unr
10 104 Quinton Patton SF 27.1 (99)
10 105 Torrey Smith SF 28.6 (63)
10 106 Kamar Aiken BAL 28.3 (82)
10 107 Jermaine Kearse SEA 27.6 (80)
10 108 Cody Latimer DEN 24.9 (87)
10 109 Charles Johnson MIN 28.5 (66)
10 110 Rashard Higgins CLE 22.9 (96)
11 111 Vincent Jackson TB 34.6 (98)
11 112 Russell Shepard TB 26.8 unr
11 113 Marquess Wilson CHI 25.0 (110)
11 114 Steve Johnson SD 31.1 (109)
11 115 Brice Butler OAK 27.6 unr
11 116 Albert Wilson KC 25.1 (104)
11 117 Corey Brown CAR 25.7 (105)
11 118 Pharoh Cooper RAM 22.5 (107)
11 119 Jakeem Grant MIA 24.8 (112)
11 120 Mike Thomas RAM 23.0 (111)
11 121 Moritz Boehringer FA 23.9 (97)
11 122 Nelson Spruce RAM 24.7 (125)
11 123 Ricardo Louis CLE 23.4 (121)
11 124 Bryce Treggs PHI 23.3 unr
11 125 Danny Amendola NE 31.8 (100)
11 126 Anquan Boldin DET 36.9 (114)
11 127 Brian Quick RAM 28.2 (103)
11 128 Brandon Coleman NO 25.2 (106)
11 129 Victor Cruz NYG 30.8 (95)
11 130 Eddie Royal CHI 31.3 (116)
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 24.8 (1)
1 2 Mike Evans TB 24.0 (11)
2 3 Julio Jones ATL 28.6 (4)
2 4 Amari Cooper OAK 23.2 (7)
2 5 Sammy Watkins BUF 24.2 (3)
2 6 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 25.2 (2)
2 7 Antonio Brown PIT 29.1 (5)
2 8 A.J. Green CIN 29.1 (8)
3 9 T.Y. Hilton IND 27.8 (12)
3 10 Alshon Jeffery CHI 27.5 (9)
3 11 Allen Robinson JAX 24.0 (6)
3 12 Dez Bryant DAL 28.8 (10)
3 13 Keenan Allen SD 25.3 (15)
3 14 Brandin Cooks NO 23.9 (14)
3 15 Michael Thomas NO 24.5 (42)
4 16 Corey Coleman CLE 23.2 (17)
4 17 Devante Parker MIA 24.6 (19)
4 18 Davante Adams GB 24.7 (50)
4 19 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 26.6 (18)
4 20 Josh Doctson WAS 24.7 (20)
5 21 Stefon Diggs MIN 23.8 (54)
5 22 Doug Baldwin SEA 29.9 (33)
5 23 Jordy Nelson GB 32.3 (28)
5 24 Jarvis Landry MIA 24.8 (22)
5 25 Demaryius Thomas DEN 29.7 (16)
5 26 Donte Moncrief IND 24.1 (29)
5 27 Will Fuller HOU 23.4 (39)
5 28 Jordan Matthews PHI 25.1 (30)
5 29 Sterling Shepard NYG 24.5 (38)
5 30 Kevin White CHI 25.2 (21)
5 31 Michael Crabtree OAK 30.0 (52)
5 32 Terrelle Pryor CLE 28.2 (61)
5 33 Tyrell Williams SD 25.6 (77)
6 34 Randall Cobb GB 27.0 (13)
6 35 Julian Edelman NE 31.3 (26)
6 36 Martavis Bryant PIT 25.7 (32)
6 37 Laquon Treadwell MIN 22.2 (24)
6 38 Tyler Lockett SEA 24.9 (36)
6 39 Josh Gordon CLE 26.4 (25)
6 40 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 30.4 (47)
6 41 Tyreek Hill KC 23.5 unr
6 42 Phillip Dorsett IND 24.7 (35)
6 43 Jeremy Maclin KC 29.3 (23)
6 44 Marvin Jones DET 27.5 (55)
6 45 Cameron Meredith CHI 24.9 unr
6 46 Golden Tate DET 29.1 (31)
7 47 Leonte Carroo MIA 23.6 (37)
7 48 Jamison Crowder WAS 24.2 unr
7 49 Kenny Britt FA 28.9 (72)
7 50 John Brown ARI 27.4 (41)
7 51 Tyler Boyd CIN 23.8 (46)
7 52 Breshad Perriman BAL 24.0 (49)
7 53 Adam Thielen MIN 27.0 unr
7 54 Taylor Gabriel ATL 26.6 unr
7 55 Eric Decker NYJ 30.5 (44)
7 56 Rishard Matthews TEN 27.9 (86)
7 57 Malcolm Mitchell NE 25.1 (60)
7 58 Allen Hurns JAX 25.8 (34)
7 59 Brandon Marshall NYJ 33.4 (27)
8 60 Chris Hogan NE 28.9 (76)
7 61 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 34.0 (45)
7 62 Marqise Lee JAX 25.8 (85)
8 63 Sammie Coates PIT 24.4 (56)
8 64 Devin Funchess CAR 23.3 (40)
8 65 Michael Floyd NE 27.8 (43)
8 66 DeSean Jackson WAS 30.7 (48)
8 67 Willie Snead NO 24.9 (58)
8 68 Mike Wallace BAL 31.1 (71)
8 69 Tajae Sharpe TEN 22.7 (59)
8 70 Kenny Stills MIA 25.4 (75)
8 71 Cole Beasley DAL 28.4 unr
8 72 Robby Anderson NYJ 24.3 unr
8 73 J.J. Nelson ARI 25.4 unr
8 74 Nelson Agholor PHI 24.3 (51)
8 75 Travis Benjamin SD 27.7 (53)
8 76 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 25.3 unr
8 77 Paul Richardson SEA 25.4 (74)
8 78 Dontrelle Inman SD 28.6 unr
8 79 Tavon Austin RAM 26.5 (62)
8 80 Dorial Green-Beckham PHI 24.4 (57)
8 81 Kendall Wright TEN 27.8 (67)
8 82 Braxton Miller HOU 24.8 (68)
9 83 Robert Woods BUF 25.4 (94)
9 84 Pierre Garcon WAS 31.1 (89)
9 85 Brandon LaFell CIN 30.8 (126)
9 86 Terrance Williams DAL 28.0 (102)
9 87 Geronimo Allison GB 23.6 unr
9 88 Bruce Ellington SF 26.0 (70)
9 89 Eli Rogers PIT 24.7 (88)
9 90 Devin Smith NYJ 25.5 (64)
9 91 Justin Blackmon JAX 27.6 (81)
9 92 Chris Conley KC 24.9 (84)
9 93 Percy Harvin BUF 29.3 unr
9 94 DeAndre Smelter SF 25.7 (83)
9 95 Ted Ginn CAR 32.4 (79)
9 96 Mohamed Sanu ATL 28.0 (92)
10 97 Trevor Davis GB 24.2 (91)
10 98 Chris Moore BAL 24.2 (101)
10 99 Jaelen Strong HOU 23.6 (65)
10 100 Jeff Janis GB 26.2 (77)
10 101 Markus Wheaton PIT 26.6 (69)
10 102 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 26.5 (113)
10 103 Jeremy Kerley NYJ 28.8 unr
10 104 Quinton Patton SF 27.1 (99)
10 105 Torrey Smith SF 28.6 (63)
10 106 Kamar Aiken BAL 28.3 (82)
10 107 Jermaine Kearse SEA 27.6 (80)
10 108 Cody Latimer DEN 24.9 (87)
10 109 Charles Johnson MIN 28.5 (66)
10 110 Rashard Higgins CLE 22.9 (96)
11 111 Vincent Jackson TB 34.6 (98)
11 112 Russell Shepard TB 26.8 unr
11 113 Marquess Wilson CHI 25.0 (110)
11 114 Steve Johnson SD 31.1 (109)
11 115 Brice Butler OAK 27.6 unr
11 116 Albert Wilson KC 25.1 (104)
11 117 Corey Brown CAR 25.7 (105)
11 118 Pharoh Cooper RAM 22.5 (107)
11 119 Jakeem Grant MIA 24.8 (112)
11 120 Mike Thomas RAM 23.0 (111)
11 121 Moritz Boehringer FA 23.9 (97)
11 122 Nelson Spruce RAM 24.7 (125)
11 123 Ricardo Louis CLE 23.4 (121)
11 124 Bryce Treggs PHI 23.3 unr
11 125 Danny Amendola NE 31.8 (100)
11 126 Anquan Boldin DET 36.9 (114)
11 127 Brian Quick RAM 28.2 (103)
11 128 Brandon Coleman NO 25.2 (106)
11 129 Victor Cruz NYG 30.8 (95)
11 130 Eddie Royal CHI 31.3 (116)
Tau837
Footballguy
First off, appreciate the rankings. 
Seems considerably too high IMO. I did a quick check in one PPR dynasty league, and he ranked #27, #16, and #20 in PPG for the past 3 seasons. Tyrod could be gone, replacement unknown. He has had difficulty staying healthy. Can you elaborate on why you rank him here? I know you have a system for ranking draft prospects, and I'm wondering if it ranked Watkins really high, and that could be influencing this ranking.ZWK said:
Seems like too large a spread between Dez and Baldwin. Not only 10 ranking spots, but putting Dez 2 tiers higher seems way off. Baldwin has outperformed Dez for the past 2 seasons, and has the better QB. Does one year of age dictate this gap? IMO Dez is ranked a bit high and Baldwin is ranked too low.ZWK said:
Inman played well in 2016, but this ranking seems high. You have 3 other Chargers WRs ranked higher, and justifiably so. The Chargers also have a strong young TE and target their RBs quite a bit. It also may be that the Chargers will throw fewer passes under Anthony Lynn. Inman is a RFA, so it seems safe to expect he will be back with the Chargers in 2017 and thus will be at least 29 before his situation changes.ZWK said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would imagine a lot of this has to do with ceilings. Baldwin just put up the best year of his career with 264 fantasy points. Dez has outscored that number, considerably, three times.
I think Baldwin is safer, and he's definitely trended way up the last two years, but if I told you I went into the future and one of these guys was going to go for 1300 yards and 15 TDs next year I think just about everyone would expect that to be Dez.
EBF
Footballguy
I haven't done rankings in a really long time, but I'm pretty high on Hill. I think he'd be at least around the 20-25 range for me.
The main selling point is that he's clearly a special talent in terms of his playmaking ability. He is a freak athlete and when he gets the ball, good things happen.
Drawbacks are his character issues and his lack of a conventional position. Will he get enough touches to be consistent in FF? I think so, but he's unique.
Ultimately, I'll bet on the talent.
The main selling point is that he's clearly a special talent in terms of his playmaking ability. He is a freak athlete and when he gets the ball, good things happen.
Drawbacks are his character issues and his lack of a conventional position. Will he get enough touches to be consistent in FF? I think so, but he's unique.
Ultimately, I'll bet on the talent.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Josh Doctson and Devante Parker are a lot higher than I expected. Thank you for the work.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
Maybe, but he finished wr18 in ppr as a rookie. #11 ppg after the Chiefs bye week. That combined with his youth doesn't add up to a receiver outside the top 30 in dynasty even with the risk of him being a Harvin clone (which I don't completely buy anyway)
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