Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from
3/24/18.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25.8 (1)
1 2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 26.2 (3)
1 3 Mike Evans TB 25.0 (2)
2 4 Michael Thomas NO 25.5 (4)
2 5 Antonio Brown PIT 30.1 (5)
3 6 Davante Adams GB 25.7 (6)
3 7 Keenan Allen LAC 26.3 (8)
3 8 Amari Cooper OAK 24.2 (9)
3 9 Tyreek Hill KC 24.5 (11)
3 10 Julio Jones ATL 29.6 (12)
3 11 Brandin Cooks RAM 24.9 (7)
3 12 Jarvis Landry CLE 25.8 (20)
3 13 Allen Robinson CHI 25.0 (10)
4 14 A.J. Green CIN 30.1 (13)
4 15 T.Y. Hilton IND 28.8 (14)
4 16 Sammy Watkins KC 25.2 (16)
4 17 Stefon Diggs MIN 24.8 (17)
4 18 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21.8 (19)
4 19 Adam Thielen MIN 28.0 (15)
5 20 Josh Gordon CLE 27.4 (23)
5 21 Corey Davis TEN 23.6 (18)
5 22 D.J. Moore CAR 21.4 rook
5 23 Doug Baldwin SEA 29.9 (21)
6 24 Calvin Ridley ATL 23.7 rook
6 25 Demaryius Thomas DEN 30.7 (27)
6 26 Corey Coleman CLE 24.2 (24)
6 27 DeVante Parker MIA 25.6 (25)
6 28 Golden Tate DET 30.1 (28)
6 29 Alshon Jeffery PHI 28.5 (22)
6 30 Mike Williams LAC 23.9 (26)
6 31 Will Fuller HOU 24.4 (30)
6 32 Courtland Sutton DEN 22.9 rook
7 33 Marvin Jones DET 28.5 (34)
7 34 John Ross CIN 22.8 (32)
7 35 Dez Bryant 29.8 (29)
7 36 Cooper Kupp RAM 25.2 (31)
7 37 Devin Funchess CAR 24.3 (37)
7 38 Martavis Bryant OAK 26.7 (45)
7 39 Josh Doctson WAS 25.7 (33)
7 40 Robby Anderson NYJ 25.3 (40)
7 41 Sterling Shepard NYG 25.6 (38)
7 42 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 27.6 (36)
7 43 Kenny Golladay DET 24.8 (39)
7 44 Anthony Miller CHI 23.9 rook
7 45 Michael Gallup DAL 22.5 rook
7 46 Tre’Quan Smith NO rook
7 47 Robert Woods RAM 26.4 (35)
7 48 Cameron Meredith NO 25.9 (48)
7 49 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 35.0 (54)
7 50 Christian Kirk ARI 21.8 rook
8 51 Marqise Lee JAX 26.8 (41)
8 52 Dante Pettis SF 22.9 rook
8 53 James Washington PIT 22.4 rook
8 54 Randall Cobb GB 28.0 (44)
8 55 Julian Edelman NE 32.3 (51)
8 56 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 31.4 (43)
8 57 Chris Hogan NE 29.9 (46)
8 58 Chris Godwin TB 22.5 (49)
8 59 Nelson Agholor PHI 25.3 (52)
8 60 Taywan Taylor TEN 23.5 (47)
8 61 D.J. Chark JAX 21.9 rook
8 62 Donte Moncrief JAX 25.1 (50)
8 63 Antonio Callaway CLE 21.6 rook
8 64 Michael Crabtree BAL 31.0 (42)
8 65 Pierre Garcon SF 32.1 (57)
8 66 Jamison Crowder WAS 25.2 (55)
9 67 John Brown BAL 28.4 (53)
9 68 Zay Jones BUF 23.4 (56)
9 69 Curtis Samuel CAR 22.1 (59)
9 70 Tyler Lockett SEA 25.9 (60)
9 71 Keelan Cole JAX 25.4 (62)
9 72 Carlos Henderson DEN 23.7 (63)
9 73 Marquise Goodwin SF 27.8 (64)
9 74 Allen Hurns DAL 26.8 (75)
9 75 Paul Richardson WAS 26.4 (61)
9 76 Jordan Matthews NE 26.1 (76)
9 77 Keke Coutee HOU 21.6 rook
10 78 Kevin White CHI 26.2 (65)
10 79 J'Mon Moore GB 23.3 rook
10 80 DaeSean Hamilton DEN 23.5 rook
10 81 Jordy Nelson OAK 33.3 (66)
10 82 Terrelle Pryor NYJ 29.2 (67)
10 83 Tyrell Williams LAC 26.6 (72)
10 84 Daurice Fountain IND 22.7 rook
10 85 Jeremy Maclin 30.3 (68)
10 86 Kenny Stills MIA 26.4 (69)
10 87 DeSean Jackson TB 31.7 (70)
10 88 Rishard Matthews TEN 28.9 (71)
10 89 Laquon Treadwell MIN 23.2 (73)
10 90 Dede Westbrook JAX 24.8 (74)
10 91 Chad Williams ARI 23.9 (78)
10 92 Jordan Lasley BAL 21.8 rook
10 93 Willie Snead BAL 25.9 (58)
10 94 Ted Ginn NO 33.4 (77)
10 95 Malcolm Mitchell NE 26.1 (87)
10 96 Quincy Enunwa NYJ 26.3 (80)
10 97 ArDarius Stewart NYJ 24.7 (82)
11 98 Trent Taylor SF 24.3 (89)
11 99 Deon Cain IND 22.1 rook
11 100 Equanimeous St. Brown GB 21.9 rook
11 101 Torrey Smith CAR 29.6 (81)
11 102 Eric Decker 31.5 (83)
11 103 Taylor Gabriel CHI 27.6 (84)
11 104 Amara Darboh SEA 24.6 (107)
11 105 Albert Wilson MIA 26.1 (85)
11 106 Cole Beasley DAL 29.3 (126)
11 107 Leonte Carroo MIA 24.6 (91)
11 108 Josh Malone CIN 22.4 (88)
11 109 Jaleel Scott BAL 23.5 rook
11 110 Mike Wallace PHI 32.1 (86)
11 111 Ryan Grant IND 27.7 (90)
11 112 Marcell Ateman OAK 24.0 rook
11 113 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB rook
11 114 Cedrick Wilson DAL rook
11 115 Kendall Wright MIN 28.8 (105)
11 116 Danny Amendola MIA 32.8 (92)
11 117 Phillip Dorsett NE 25.7 (94)
11 118 J.J. Nelson ARI 26.4 (103)
11 119 Cody Latimer NYG 25.9 unr
11 120 Brandon Marshall 34.4 (96)
11 121 Mohamed Sanu ATL 29.0 (79)
11 122 Justin Watson TB rook
11 123 Bruce Ellington HOU 27.0 (95)
11 124 Dontrelle Inman 29.6 (93)
11 125 Chris Conley KC 25.9 (97)
11 126 Breshad Perriman BAL 25.0 (98)
11 127 Mack Hollins PHI 25.0 (99)
11 128 Ricardo Louis CLE 24.4 (102)
11 129 Brice Butler ARI 28.6 (116)
11 130 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 28.6 (104)
11 131 Josh Reynolds RAM 23.5 (100)
Rookies now included, taking into account draft position (as reflected in my
generic rookie rankings) and other opinions which I've been covering in
my thread on this year's draft class. Note that adding rookies to the rankings causes other players to slide down even if my opinion of them hasn't changed, e.g. I actually moved Pierre Garcon up a few slots relative to the guys that I included in my March rankings, but he has moved down overall because most of the rd 1-3 rookie WRs have jumped into the rankings ahead of him.
The majority of the other changes since March are based on new analyses, including questions like which receivers might have lost a step and how much to downgrade a top WR prospect who doesn't do much in his first season or two. Those analyses are spread over the past few pages of this thread; key posts include:
Corey Davis and highly-drafted rookies with an unimpressive rookie year
Slow WRs, from Next Gen Stats data
Separation, speed, and who might have lost a step
Projecting veteran WRs by formula (with surprisingly high numbers for Jarvis Landry, Antonio Brown, and Larry Fitzgerald)
Extending the by-formula projections to include young prospects
One big set of changes is that many top prospects from recent draft classes (like Corey Davis) have slid down my rankings. Top WR prospects who don't do much in their first year or two have a much worse track record than the full set of top WR prospects. First round receivers, on average, have a strong track record. But when you remove the guys like Beckham and Cooks who already put up strong numbers as rookies, the rest of the first round receivers don't have nearly as strong a track record, on average. Just going by historical averages, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross should be about half as valuable now as they were a year ago. If you just look at Corey Davis as "WR drafted with pick 5 who didn't have fantasy value as a rookie" and compare him to historical WRs drafted around that point with a similar rookie year, and you just look at DJ Moore as "rookie WR drafted with pick 24" and compare him to historical WRs drafted around that point, the comparables for Moore actually have a noticeably better track record. I don't completely buy into that analysis (I have Davis ahead of Moore), but I do put a fair amount of weight on it, which is why they're next to each other on the same tier.
Several guys have changed teams since my March rankings. Martavis Bryant trade is good for him - he has a chance at a Crabtree-sized role in Oakland (instead of being stuck behind AB & JJSS), and the fact that the Raiders were willing to give up pick 79 for him with a 1 year contract (when they could have instead drafted Michael Gallup there) is a good sign about what the NFL thinks of his skills. Also a good move for Cameron Meredith now competing to be Brees's #2 target. Cooks to the Rams is bad for him (going to a weapon-filled offense where Watkins was used sparingly) and also for the other LA receivers. Also bad news for Snead (leaving New Orleans) and Dez Bryant (whose team no longer wanted him).