F&L (and others who wish, of course), first off, this isn't a "rate my trade" post, but more of a "how do you account for injuries" question.
Dynasty Trade
TEAM A: Gave Anthony Gonzalez WR, Shonn Greene and Leon Washington
TEAM B: Gave Rashard Mendenhall and Correl Buckhalter
Notes relevant to the discussion (possibly)
Start 3 WR and 2 RB (no flex)
Team A has R. White, D. Jackson, M. Colston and M. Crabtree already at WR (giving up Gonzo was depth)
I realize in your rankings Gonzalez is ranked fairly low (37 currently) - but in September he was ranked as high as 22. Is the drop simply due to the injury (his ranking will come back up once healthy) - or do you see the injury, combined with him being 1 year older (and a season seeing Garcon/Collie play fairly well) hurting his long term value that much?
A similar question could be made in regards to L. Washington/Greene. Most beleive one of the two will be the starter in NY next season (or very soon after that given TJs age). Is the low ranking simply becuase that hasn't happened yet? (i.e. will the value of one or the other jump into the top 15 or so, when TJ is not resigned?)
Just curious on your thoughts. Oh - and I will let you know which team is mine later.
In my rankings, Gonzo's drop is a result of him going from "unquestioned #2 in Indy" to "questioned #2 in Indy". I have Shonn Greene low because I don't think he's a special talent, and I have Washington low because I think he's Jerious Norwood North. I'm not thinking short term (i.e. "he's not a starter yet..."), because I have Stewart ranked very high and he's not a starter yet, either (and I drafted MJD in the 2nd round of my startup years before he became a starter).
This thread hasn't been short on Chris Johnson love, but it's time to pile on some more. Cutting to the chase, I think it's time to move Chris Johnson to RB1. Being a starry-eyed CJ owner myself, I will admit to some bias. However, he's the #1 RB this year (non-PPR) and I do not think that is just him riding a good wave of variance. After seeing more and more of what he can do, and how the Titans use him, I think RB1 for this season is very near his expected value if we could replay the season a million times. Going even further, I think his upside is such that he could actually be better than what he is this year. I think he's the #1 RB this year, and could improve next. I don't see anyone else in the league with upside similar to his.
If the Vikings and Titans did a 1 for 1 deal and traded AP for CJ, what do you guys see happening to their numbers? I see AP's going down, and CJ's going up. If Tennesse and Jacksonville made the same trade, I don't see MJD coming out ahead of CJ there either. I know there are problems with this method, but I still find it an interesting thought experiment.
I can now honestly say I could auto-reject any MJD for CJ offer, and if someone proposed me Purple Jesus for CJ, there would be a pause while I marveled that I was hitting the reject button, then I'd hit it.
tl;dr: I want to have Chris Johnson's children.
I get the love, but I think this is crazy talk. Johnson, MJD, and ADP are RB1, 2, and 3 respectively in points to date, it's true... but what about Chris Johnson's level of production screams "sustainable" to you? Right now, Chris Johnson is one of four RBs since 1960 to post 6+ ypc with 150+ carries (the others are Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, and OJ Simpson). Which is all well and good, but each of those guys saw their YPC return to more normal levels throughout the rest of their career (Simpson had a 4.7 career ypc, Sanders had a 5.0 career ypc, Brown had a 5.2 career ypc). If Chris Johnson was averaging a merely awesome 5.5 ypc, he'd have 160 fewer yards and would rank behind both MJD and Peterson. Chris Johnson has been unbelievable so far, but this is not sustainable.As for MJD and ADP... their production is totally sustainable. They're just doing what they've always done. They're both averaging 5.1 ypc, which is right in line with their career averages, and also a sustainable rate for a stud RB. MJD is scoring boatloads of TDs, but there's nothing new there- he's averaging a TD for every 14 carries, but his career average is a TD for every 15 carries. Both MJD and Peterson are pretty much carrying on business as usual, and yet they're still essentially right on the heels of Chris Johnson in the midst of a career year.
From a skillset standpoint, too, Chris Johnson doesn't have the tools to compete with ADP or MJD. Both of those backs are better all-around runners, and especially better in short yardage and at the goal line. The fact that he's currently having the best boom/bust season of any boom/bust RB in NFL history doesn't change the fact that CJ is still a boom/bust RB and will never be the TD threat that those two are. I'd take either of those backs above CJ from an NFL standpoint- and I'd add Steven Jackson to that list, too.