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Yeah, Rivers' fall baffles me. It really can't be explained by coaching staff or supporting cast. If someone told me tomorrow that he'd been abducted in the offseason after 2010 and was being impersonated by someone from the Arena League, I would only consider that mildly improbable.'Just Win Baby said:
Thirty is young for a good QB to just plain lose it due to age. Thinking he might make a decent QBBC buy if you don't own a top-7 QB and River's is someone's QB2 on a team with one of the studs at QB1. Price would need to be right though.
IMO Sanders could be a weekly starter next year, but its likely to be a weak WR2 or WR3. Probably better in PPR than not. The guy just isn't that likely to be a high TD type player.Baldwin is a total wild card. I think the talent is there for him to be a WR1 in fantasy. He had a poor start to his career with the attitude and injury situation. By the time he got going, Haley got fired. He's been saddled with Romeo Crennel's offense and coaching since. Still, I think you can reasonably put a lot of his lack of success on him. The question will be can Reid get to him, and help him maximize his talent? Its an impossible question to answer now, because IMO its not about talent, it's about what lies between Baldwin's ears. Another way to think of it is this: Would Crabtree have gotten anywhere near 85/1105/9 if Singletary were still his coach?
It's rare for good QBs to lose it so young, but not entirely unprecedented. Bernie Kosar, Ken O'Brien, Marc Bulger...
Not necessarily. He could run it in himself. He could hand it off. Maybe a Matt Spaeth emerges and vultures everyone again. Roethlisberger has never been a huge passing-TD guy. This year was actually the second best passing TD season of his career.
Charles is every bit as dynamic as Westbrook and McCoy were with Reid, so I'd think it bodes relatively well for him.
Had him at 5-6 before the carousel started spinning. I'll almost certainly have him at 5-6 after it stops, regardless of who his new coach is.
what does a Reid deal in KC mean to the QB position?Does he turn Cassel into a starting fantasy QB?Does he make a deal for a guy like Flynn who's a product of the West Coast system?Does he draft a QB this year?Does a game manager like Alex Smith fit into this equation?
In PPR I think there's a good argument for him at RB1, but it may be my longtime mancrush talking. I wouldn't be surprised to see him double his catch total under Reid, which easily puts him over 2000 YFS. If the offense is better overall (and how could it not be considering Reid >>>>>>>> Brian Daboll) his TDs should be up some even if they continue to use a goal-line RB, which they might not (Westbrook and McCoy were both 10+ TD guys under Reid).He just turned 26 a few weeks ago, so he's essentially two seasons younger than Peterson and one season younger than Foster and Rice, and has taken much less pounding than all three of them. We have no idea what type of system McCoy is in next year, which I weigh pretty heavily for RBs. I like both of this year's rookies, but Charles is far safer due to track record. He's also definitely more talented than everyone except Peterson -- the guy averages over half a yard more than Jim Brown per carry for his career, think about that for a minute.
What it means for the QB situation is that the 2013 starter is likely not on the roster. Geno, Vick, maybe even Kolb if the Cards cut him.
Charles is a month older than Rice, not a year younger.
Assuming non-PPR, I think it is close. You have to make a call on Foster's gas tank; what did his big dip in per touch production mean?I'd take McCoy, Peterson, Richardson, and Martin over Morris in standard formats. After that, it's a tough call. Charles, Foster, Rice, Spiller, and Morris are all in that mix.
The prospect of trading Morris for Spiller, Charles or Rice in any scenario is just too far-fetched for me. Seems like a deal you need to add 2 1sts too. Foster is a special case due to the apparent decline. For a rebuilding team I think I'd still prefer Foster. Let's take a worst case scenario. Due to injury or ineffectiveness, Tate takes over, and due to his high salary, Foster finds a new team in 2014. At 28 he's old but not done. Teams that are interested in him will be good teams. At worst he's a timeshare RB with most TDs and enough receptions. A worst case scenario for Morris is much worse, IMO. Due to injury or ineffectiveness, Helu or a UFA takes over. Morris is a backup on the Redskins roster in 2014 and on. Whose worst case scenario is more likely is open for debate (yes probably Foster's) but I think both are possible.Maybe a rebuilding team should move Foster, but Morris is not the best target to do so. If that's the only option I'd hold Foster, hope for the best or wait for a better sell point.A competing team should hold Foster and try to add Tate.
Don't agree with this line of thinking, at all.Age and production are factors, they're not the only ones.
Almost all of these guys are a lot more talented than many of the names listed ahead of them. Big value plays here. They have starter talent, but you can get most of them at discount prices because they didn't produce startable FF numbers in 2012. Wilson - Likely to be held hostage by his owners, but if you can get him for something like a MJD, Forte, or McFadden, I would roll the dice. Mathews - When healthy, he is a good three down back.Stewart - The biggest tease in FF still offers great upside relative to his price tag.Mendenhall - Criminally low here. He will be starting somewhere next season.Pierce - Had a better rookie year than Pead and Hillman, and has a better frame for three down duty. Gerhart - Not as talented as ADP, but perhaps good enough to start elsewhere when his contract runs down. A much better proposition for FF owners than Peterson considering the relative price tags.
If you like that style of ranking follow Eric Dickens from DLF. I believ he takes into account ADP into his rankings. Im just trying to go BPA.
As I mentioned, I like Nelson more in BPA as well - I just think he is the better/more talented receiver.
Disagree with most of the above. I think you're right about Pierce though. I think Mendenhall's best case is this year's Benson, so his owners will have to wait until August to know if they have a starter or a cast off. Tough play.Mathews has gotten his opportunities, he's a committee back, can't handle the load.I think Wilson is ranked about right, disagree with some above and below but the spot is right. Ability and potential to be a RB1, but still under developed as a football player. I don't trust him.White flag on J Stew, convinced his lower body issues are why he's never been given a shot. Love the talent, but good committee back only.Gerhart's just not any good, he's AD insurance only.
Talent, situation, and upside all favor the 25yo as well, IMO. Risk favors the 27yo. Not really looking to discuss the 25yo that much, just the difference between the two players in the rankings struck me. It seems affected a lot by fantasy points in the current season, which is swayed a lot by TD production. The lazy ranking is "well Pitta came out of nowhere and scored more FP so he's a TE1 trending upward." On the other hand, the other guy is younger, put up similar numbers aside from TD, is a better athlete, is on a better offense (for the time being). But we hate him. He only had 2 TDs so he was disappointing. So he's still trending downward. Rudolph is everyone's #5 TE including my own, but all he did was score TDs. There were rumblings throughout the season that he just wasn't that good. But hey he scored TDs so hype him up some more and maybe he'll score some more.
Mendenhall is somewhere between Lynch and Benson. Not as agile as Lynch or as good in the passing game, but certainly better than Benson. He has speed that Benson never did. I think he'd probably come in at something like RB15-RB20 on my rankings. Being downgraded too much based on short memories. He's a starting caliber talent and still young. If I could trade any of these guys for him, I'd snap my arm in half clicking accept so fast. 14. MJD18. DMC- see Matthews19. Sjax – Please go to a contender and finish out as a top 5 RB!20. Gore21. Sproles – wish we could rely on him more, even 2011 was up and down22. Leshoure24. Bush25. Bradshaw- love you but can’t stay healthy/Wilson knocking on the door26. BJGE- just produces, do they add a RB in the Draft?27. Ingram- role increasing28. Tate- Talent only ranking, Foster Workload29. Hunter- still main heir apparent30. DWill31. La Miller- talent ranking32. Br Brown- talent ranking33. Ry Williams- talent ranking34. Moreno- did enough to earn main role again in 2013?And that's without some of the borderline guys like Forte, CJ2K, and Murray.
Disagree completely. 2nd round pick. Prolific college performer. More importantly, averaged 4.68 YPC on 92 carries after AD went down last year. He would be the best back on the roster for plenty of teams in the NFL.
Toughest guys to rank for me were the true handcuffs with great talent. I really like Pierce and Turbin as talents. I'll probably move them up. I thought Gerhart was a FA this year thats why I put him in with the Blount, Hillis types, guys that could get a better situation in Free Agency.
Good assessment, I wasn't down on Mendehall, he just didn't jump out at me when I was looking through my rankings, I'll probably put him where I have Michael Bush at 24 right after JStew and bump Bush down. . Not sure why I had Bush so high.'EBF said:
In the same sense that DuJuan Harris was better than anything on GB, maybe. If your argument is he's comparable to Greene or Wells, that's not a great selling point, and not something one of those desperate teams will be looking to upgrade to.I think we can safely rule out'EBF said:
Did you really just compare Toby Gerhart to DuJuan Harris?
Let's see here....- Pac-10 superstar- Heisman runner-up- Consensus All-American- 2nd round pickvs.- UDFA out of Troy who rushed for 603 yards as a senior and has already been cut by two NFL teamsIf Gerhart is only as good as Greene or Wells, he's still well worth a punt at his current price tag. If he's the 35th best RB in the NFL and he's available for RB50 prices, he's a tremendous value. And that's basically how I feel about him. You're right that there aren't a lot of teams where he could walk into the starting lineup, but I think you could make a case that he'd be the best back on any of these teams based on current ability
olphinsPatriotsJetsBengalsColtsJaguarsTitansBroncosChargersRaidersGiantsRedskinsBearsLionsPackersFalconsCardinalsRamsThat's 18 teams where he might have a prominent role within 1-2 years of signing. Even if you remove some of the more controversial selections, it's hard to deny that he'd be a major contender for starter on touches on the Jets, Colts, Broncos, Lions, Packers, Falcons, Cardinals, and Rams.
As someone who follows the Packers closely, I can tell you that since the "book" was written on Finley early this season, he's quietly been a lot better football player. Somewhere around midseason, he started meeting weekly with Aaron Rodgers. He's not been perfect by any means since, but he's been much more focused, and the drops have dwindled. He's also made a lot more key blocks. Obviously, that doesn't all go towards the stat column in FF, but the biggest thing holding Finley back has been his lack of maturity. He's probably still on his way out of GB, but that may actually help his target numbers. It is similar to the point that EBF is making regarding some of those RBs. Finley is cheap right now. He may very well be a great buy low.'thriftyrocker said:
Yes. Yes, I did. Which RB was better in 2012?Did you really just compare Toby Gerhart to DuJuan Harris?
Wells and Greene are not the 35th best RBs in the league. They are two of the worst RB in the league but are elevated to carries and FP because they are still on the team that drafted them and those teams are stupid. If Gerhart is only as good as Wells or Greene, he will never get a chance to start another game in the NFL barring injury (or injuries).Is Harris' situation preferable to Gerhart ATM? Harris could Timmy Smith himself into significant carries next year. Is trading Gerhart for Harris a bad bet ATM? If you bust on Harris, Gerhart's price isn't going up until that "barring injury (or injuries)" thing happens.
You're putting too many eggs in the situation basket. On lifetime body of work, Gerhart is a much better RB than Harris. He had a more prolific college career against much tougher competition. He has been the much better performer thus far in their NFL careers. I don't have him in any of my leagues, but if I did I certainly wouldn't trade him for Harris, a stop-gap flash in the pan barring some kind of unexpected postseason explosion. You have to use your imagination a little bit in FF. If a guy like Toby Gerhart was getting playing time, he wouldn't be cheap. The only reason he's available for a low price is precisely because people like you look at him and see the situation and not the value. Nobody here is saying that he's a future Pro Bowler, but he has a pretty good pedigree and will be a free agent after this season. If he goes to a team with a hole at RB, you just got a top 15 FF RB for peanuts. That upside is well worth the risk of what it would take to acquire him in a typical league. I think people sometimes fall into the trap in dynasty of getting too black-and-white in their thinking. Either a player is a superstar or he's garbage. The reality is that at any given time there are only a handful of elite players across the league at any given position. So while every NFL team would love to have Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson, somebody is going to have to start Joe Flacco and Shonn Greene every week. You don't have to be all-world to be a useful player. Gerhart is not Peterson, but that doesn't mean he's worthless. He is quite possibly good enough to be the next BJGE, Alfred Morris, or Shonn Greene. If you need RB help, he represents a much better gamble than whichever second rate rookie you could draft with the third round pick that it would take to acquire him.
You are putting too much stock in a really bad year for Arizona and Wells. He is much better than the 35th best RB in the league. I'd be shocked if he didn't at least end up as a lead back in a committee in the next year or two, assuming he can stay healthy.Yes. Yes, I did. Which RB was better in 2012?Did you really just compare Toby Gerhart to DuJuan Harris?Wells and Greene are not the 35th best RBs in the league. They are two of the worst RB in the league but are elevated to carries and FP because they are still on the team that drafted them and those teams are stupid. If Gerhart is only as good as Wells or Greene, he will never get a chance to start another game in the NFL barring injury (or injuries).Is Harris' situation preferable to Gerhart ATM? Harris could Timmy Smith himself into significant carries next year. Is trading Gerhart for Harris a bad bet ATM? If you bust on Harris, Gerhart's price isn't going up until that "barring injury (or injuries)" thing happens.
For RBs, unless the player is a great talent, situation is the only thing that matters. There are a lot of guys who could come off the street like Harris, Montel Owens, Andre Brown, LSH, etc., and plug in at RB. You are elevating Gerhart above these players based on what he did in college, and what he did with fresh legs during the stretch last year. I'm sinking him down to that level of player based on his inability to get any sort of consistent role without injury to AP. And his terrible production this year.
That applies to a lot of RBs. There's 100 RBs with RB2 upside if they land in a good opportunity. Your claim is Gerhart's pedigree will carry over when he changes teams, but I don't think that's necessarily true. Once the team that drafted you spits you out, you're back with the Harris-level players fighting for your life.
Both are gambles, either could pay off. Players like Turbin, Pierce, Ballard, Brown, Richardson taken in the 3rd last year seem to be better bets ATM. Other like Polk not so much. You know better than I ATM what the 3rd holds this year.
I knew I was being harsh. Wells is a one dimensional player who gets hurt a lot. I like him, really I do, but when LSH comes in and does a better job, you have to question what the issue was.
What does this really mean? Sure you don't have to pay as much for Gehart as you would for Peterson - for obvious reasons - but how does that make Gerhart a MUCH BETTER proposition for FF owners? I like Gerhart but in a best case scenario in a starting role he'd be at best a solid RB2 (and there is no guaranty he ever becomes a starting RB).'EBF said:
It means the ratio of his value to his cost is better. Peterson is a much better back than Gerhart, but everyone knows this, so he will cost a lot more.
I never understood this. Over the last 4 years, Brees has 450 VBD. Brady has 402. In the most Brady-friendly comparison possible, he's averaged 129 VBD per season over his last 5- which is, of course, hugely inflated by that insane 2007. Brees, over his last 5 years, has 114. No matter how you slice it, Brees has been as productive as Brady, if not moreso, and he's 1.5 years younger. That's not a huge deal when comparing a 21 year old to a 23 year old, but it's a big, big deal when you're comparing a 34 year old to a 36 year old. Brees probably has 50% more career left in front of him than Brady.'Bronx Bomber said:
