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Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
Well he has already out-produced Fred Gibson by a long-shot already. Maybe we should scratch that one...It's hard for me to understand that someone could watch Hunter as a Vol and with what he did as a rookie and not be excited about his opportunity to to an absolute game-breaking WR. And oh by the way he is an athletic freak.
Based on your comments it sounds like things will add up for you after his 4th Pro Bowl appearance. I have seen all that I need to!
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Patterson had nearly 500 yards the last 8 games of the season, as a rookie playing part time. I expect Norv to find ways to get him the ball, whether it be in the passing or running game. It may take several years for him to be a proficient WR but there's no denying he's special with the ball in his hands. See no reason not to expect an additional 300-400 yards and a few TDs on the ground next season. 50-60 extra points on top of anything he does receiving makes for a nice bump.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
A poor man's AJ Green is an easy comp to make for Hunter, IMO. I kind of like EBF's mention of Sindey Rice, too. But I agree with Thrifty, no need to mention Randy Moss.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Is Devin Aromashodu better? Gibson was another tall/skinny decent SEC receiver, as was Sid Rice, so was Hunter. 7 of Hunter's 9 TDs in college came against Georgia st, Akron and Troy. The other two were vs Kentucky, which is like another D2 school. So no I wasn't excited!!! My comment on why he wasn't Randy Moss was deleted by my browser, but try to understand whats going on before you run your mouth. Saying he could be a healthy Sid Rice is not a knock. That's me saying he could reach his full potential after seeing him in the NFL jabroni.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Taking a cue from Wbcrob, and using DLF's January ADP Data, here's my overrated/underrated team:
Overrated: Player(PosRnk/ADP)
Luck (QB2/30)--Foles:60, RG3:79, Ryan:71, Stafford: 63
Wilson (QB5/51.5)--If you're going to play it safe at the QB position--do it later in the draft. Grow a pair and snag Bobby 3 Sticks.
L.Bell (RB5/17)--I like Bell, but top 5 is crazy.
S. Vereen (RB11/31)--I like Vereen, but RB1 is crazy. He averages 8.6 games/season.
J.Gordon (WR2/3)--Too much risk to pass on other top options.
C.Patterson (WR10/20)
M.Floyd (WR13/23)--He's not a borderline WR1 or a 2nd round startup pick.
D.Hopkins (WR16/34)--Same.
V.Davis (TE6/77)--Should be behind Reed, Witten, and Green.
Underrated
RG3 (QB11/79) -- This is insane.
P.Rivers(QB16/139)--Should be going ahead of Romo, Brady, Dalton, Cutler.
M.Ball (RB24/65.8)--He'll be top 12 by the end of the coming season.
B.Pierce (RB33/101)--Overreaction to 2013 production, which was largely outside of his control.
P,Harvin (WR21/45)--20 guys over Percy?!
E.Decker (WR25/51)--25 might be low if there was no chance he re-signs, but there is a healthy chance that he does.
T.Austin (WR30/61)--Too low.
T.Williams (WR37/88)--Too low.
J.Reed (TE7/79)--The TE position should be about upside. Reed has it.
K.Rudolph (TE17/127)--Norv. Upside.
Overrated: Player(PosRnk/ADP)
Luck (QB2/30)--Foles:60, RG3:79, Ryan:71, Stafford: 63
Wilson (QB5/51.5)--If you're going to play it safe at the QB position--do it later in the draft. Grow a pair and snag Bobby 3 Sticks.
L.Bell (RB5/17)--I like Bell, but top 5 is crazy.
S. Vereen (RB11/31)--I like Vereen, but RB1 is crazy. He averages 8.6 games/season.
J.Gordon (WR2/3)--Too much risk to pass on other top options.
C.Patterson (WR10/20)
M.Floyd (WR13/23)--He's not a borderline WR1 or a 2nd round startup pick.
D.Hopkins (WR16/34)--Same.
V.Davis (TE6/77)--Should be behind Reed, Witten, and Green.
Underrated
RG3 (QB11/79) -- This is insane.
P.Rivers(QB16/139)--Should be going ahead of Romo, Brady, Dalton, Cutler.
M.Ball (RB24/65.8)--He'll be top 12 by the end of the coming season.
B.Pierce (RB33/101)--Overreaction to 2013 production, which was largely outside of his control.
P,Harvin (WR21/45)--20 guys over Percy?!
E.Decker (WR25/51)--25 might be low if there was no chance he re-signs, but there is a healthy chance that he does.
T.Austin (WR30/61)--Too low.
T.Williams (WR37/88)--Too low.
J.Reed (TE7/79)--The TE position should be about upside. Reed has it.
K.Rudolph (TE17/127)--Norv. Upside.
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Nothing had me shaking my head more in the January adp stuff than seeing Patterson as a 2nd rounder. Your job in the first couple of rounds is to put the cornerstones of your franchise together. People are taking him ahead of Aaron Rodgers...
I like the guy more now than I did a year ago, but I agree with Coop that most of what we saw from him is what was expected. Big bodied explosive returner/playmaker. We still really have no idea if he's going to become a productive WR in this league. One of my chief concerns about him a year ago was that he's reportedly about as smart as a box of rocks. Now he's going on offense #2 in year 2.
I have Patterson ahead of Hunter now, but IMO they should be coming off the board in the same round.
As for the comp for Hunter, I think people can't get past the injury plagued history of Sidney Rice. If Hunter realizes the potential that Rice had pre injury, there's gonna be a lot of happy Justin Hunter owners.
I actually think Hunter has a better chance for having a blow up 2014 than Patterson. Locker is not a stud QB by any means, but he's likely far better than anything the Vikings will trot out there in 2014. Locker also seemed to really like Hunter in 2013.
I like the guy more now than I did a year ago, but I agree with Coop that most of what we saw from him is what was expected. Big bodied explosive returner/playmaker. We still really have no idea if he's going to become a productive WR in this league. One of my chief concerns about him a year ago was that he's reportedly about as smart as a box of rocks. Now he's going on offense #2 in year 2.
I have Patterson ahead of Hunter now, but IMO they should be coming off the board in the same round.
As for the comp for Hunter, I think people can't get past the injury plagued history of Sidney Rice. If Hunter realizes the potential that Rice had pre injury, there's gonna be a lot of happy Justin Hunter owners.
I actually think Hunter has a better chance for having a blow up 2014 than Patterson. Locker is not a stud QB by any means, but he's likely far better than anything the Vikings will trot out there in 2014. Locker also seemed to really like Hunter in 2013.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
I think Terrance is a little overrated.
I like these guys better:
Mike Williams (38)
Dwayne Bowe (39)
Danny Amendola (43)
Marques Colston (45)
Julian Edelmen (53)
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd trade any 2 of those guys for him. Maybe 3.
I like him over Nicks, Roddy, Welker, Dobson, Woods, Wheaton and K.Wright, too, at least. Others, if trade market value is not considered (Torrey, Wallace, Randle, etc).
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Gandalf the Grey
Footballguy
I'd take Williams over all these guys with the possible exception of Edelman if he resigns. Definitely over MW (role/offense), Bowe (offense), Amendola (injuries), Colston (age/injuries).
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Luck is underrated at 30. There are at least 10 guys ahead of him I'd gladly trade for him. Ryan and RG3 are better values but Luck is untouchable the second you draft him and there's about 38 players between 30 and 71 that aren't.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
That's the nature of the position right now, though. In an established league, sure, Luck is likely a top 15 asset, along with Newton and Rodgers. But in a startup, I think Luck in the 3rd is poor value, considering where the other guys are going.
ETA: I shouldn't say poor value; that's hyperbole. I certainly understand the appeal and he's as safe as it gets in the 3rd round. It's just not a move that I would make with so much value in the 6-7th rounds.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I agree he's an easy pick over Welker and Dobson. As well as Woods and Wheaton but he's already ahead of them.
He's kind of the same guy as Randle. I like Randle more if the pieces fall right. Equal yard upside, more TD upside.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
If we're gaming the draft I'd rather draft Luck and RG3, and trade RG3 next year for a WR1 then pass on two players who appreciate in value the second you draft them.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Randle is a good comp, value wise, and he's younger too, actually. I just have more faith in Williams' situation.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If we're gaming, and it's this easy to get value for QBs in season, turn the 3 into 6,6,6 and take RG3, Ryan, Peyton. Trade Peyton in season and ride RG3/Ryan. Or trade two of them for Luck once RG3 and Ryan see their value rebound.
I'd much rather pass on Luck for Cruz, than RG3/Ryan for L.Green, Welker, L.Miller, or C.Johnson.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't expect Ryan or Peyton's trade value to escalate. They are known commodities. No one is excited about them. Ryan could swap places with Stafford but that's about it. He'll have to start putting up top 2 or 3 numbers for any significant increase in value, which is unlikely.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
What did you see from Terrance Williams that makes you so confident he will continue to produce?
He only has a season under his belt, so he is far from a sure thing.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
With Austin out, Williams was a top 15 fantasy WR. I expect his situation to be as beneficial next season. He'll get plenty of solid looks with so much attention being paid to Dez. Especially in the redzone, where plenty of teams completely sold out to stop Dez last season.
Early in the season, Williams was playing very tight and looked stiff. He made a few bone-headed plays and dropped some easy balls. As the season went on, he played with more confidence and looked a lot better. He made some really nice plays and showed that his tape was a more accurate measure of his game speed than his 40 time. Remember--the guy was a projected top 60 pick prior to the combine, where he ran slower than expected, and he led the NCAA in receiving yards.
Williams is a no-brainer target for me, even outside of my opinion of him as a player. He's not being treated as the 24 YO starting WR2 in a plus situation that he is. Even if you're not sold, I think you should be buying at his current price and selling after week 6 next season. He's going to put up numbers in that offense.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Peyton's value will surely increase in season. In general, older players are worth more in season. Owners aren't worried about making the playoffs or winning the scoring title, yet. In season, owners will move assets for LaGarrette Blount in order to keep pace in the standings. Today, right or wrong, everyone thinks they'll get it figured out without having to.
As for Ryan, I disagree. If that offense looks like we expected it to this year, I think his value rises. I don't think Foles, Wilson, or Stafford are out of range for him, this coming season. Even if he doesn't leapfrog anyone, he can certainly seem closer to Luck than he does today.
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Williams is probably a Mario Manningham or Steve Breaston - thin framed, high injury risk WR who can do well with the right QB and other top WR taking some heat from him. Dallas was dying for someone aside from Dez to be a rdzn threat, he wasn't. BU offense is pretty friendly for receivers too. He'll have his moments, but he's not someone I'd chase if he's not going to be a star that will carry a team eventually. He definitely showed some promise in college and the pros, but he's still limited to being just useful physically. At best he's Stevie Johnson as a prospect... but Johnson has longer arms and bigger hands.
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Rushmore
Footballguy
Speaking of this, if any of you haven't seen some of Hunter's track highlights, it's pretty impressive - especially his long jump. I believe there is some footage on youtube. In one league that has a unique keeper/dynasty format, I will be having to decide between Patterson, Hunter and Ellington. While at the moment it appears Patterson should be the no-brainer decision of this group, I think it's a little closer than what I see of many of the consensus rankings out there at this time.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd like to see him at 215 too, but I am not overly concerned about his frame, nor would I suggest he's a high injury risk.
Your argument seems to be aimed at a claim nobody made; I don't think anyone suggeste that he's a star or can carry a team. We're talking about NFL WR2 with upside in his current situation.
Stevie Johnson had 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons. I disagree that he's Williams' upside, but even if it proves true, he's still a bargain at his current price.
As for Dallas dying for a redzone threat, that's just not true. They were very solid in the redzone and while starting, Williams scored TDs at a very good rate.
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JFS171
Footballguy
This is an interesting debate because I'm honestly torn on Williams as an owner.
On the one hand, you've got that 24YO WR in a pass-happy offense (likely to get more pass happy with the addition of Linehan) who is likely to be the clear cut WR2 considering Austin's cap number and the Cowboys cap situation (exacerbated by grossly overpaying for kickers, for example). He's already produced top-15 WR numbers when given this opportunity before, and given it's his second year in the league, I think it's reasonable to expect some improvement as he continues to refine his game in the pros. Certainly a nice list of pros.
On the other hand, Williams was basically non-existent in college until his RS Senior year at 23 years old. I have to imagine quite a few WRs with NFL level skills (e.g. talent to be drafted in the top 3-4 rounds, let's say) could lead the NCAA in receiving yardage as 23YOs playing against mostly 18-21YOs. Physically you have to imagine the growth/maturation advantage of 2-4 years would be sizeable. Plus, given the decisions of the Cowboys FO in the recent past, can we honestly expect them to make the rational decision when it comes to Austin? He just feels like one of Jerruh's guys that they'll find a way to bring back, even if it is as a supposed third WR with a reduced cap number (putting cap problems off to future years is their specialty). The possibility of Austin returning, while perhaps remote, is not non-existent and can't be ignored IMO.
So where does that leave us with Williams? At his current ADP, probably worth the dice roll. But if a "real believer" in Williams came along I might consider selling high. Coop may have a point about selling after Week 6, but IMO his value is almost completely tied to the Austin situation. And I'm not sure I can trust the Cowboys to get that right.
Am I alone?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He had 900/11 the year before.
As for the Cowboys cutting Austin, they don't really have a choice. They played around with contracts last year to keep the core and franchise Spencer. Ware said no to a paycut already, and they have to cut massive salary simply to get below the limit.
And while Jerry is an awful owner, I don't have much issue with any of his recent money moves. I think he was right to go all in last year. With a healthy Spencer, Ware, Ratliff, Lee, Austin...who knows what happens. The only major mistake, aside from Austin (injury), appeared to be Free, but he bounced back very nicely this year. Jerry should actually get credit for not cutting him, when it seemed like a no-brainer thing to do.
I'd bet my favorite finger that Austin is cut.
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JFS171
Footballguy
As a Williams owner, I sincerely hope you're right on Austin. Should that happen, we're likely looking at excellent production from Williams, especially relative to his cost, and as you mentioned could look to "sell high" sometime in October if you're not a true believer.
I perhaps overstated the college production, which was as follows:
2011 - 59 receptions, 957 yards, 11 TDs -- 22 years old
2012 - 97 receptions, 1832 yards, 12 TDs -- 23 years old
My point on his age remains: he was old as a collegiate player… old for his draft class, and that perhaps his production should be taken with a grain of salt (though no matter how you look at it, 97/1832/12 is a helluva season).
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
You said you'd trade 2-3 of the guys cloppbeast named for Williams. Eldeman just had a top-15 ppr season. Colston is usually top-20 or better WR when he's right. Mike Williams goes back to me saying Manningham, Breaston and Stevie Johnson upside. Bowe is a talent. Now he has more upside than Stevie Johnson. I figured you consider him a stud, or at least top-24ish.I'm pretty sure I can find games where Dez was doubled and Williams didn't convert on his 1-on-1 plays in the redzone. And I know at one point with Austin out his catch rate was terrible, but he had a handful of TDs that drove everyone crazy. I'll check.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I do value him top 24-ish, but that's not "Star, lead a team" range. That's an odd mix of young guys with upside, and old guys with short windows.
58% catch rate with 35% of the targets going 15+ yards. 11.7 YPT, 16.3 YPR. I know a lot of this was due to situation, but that's damn good. I don't think you're going to find much to support an argument against him, using advanced metrics.
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JFS171
Footballguy
Perhaps -- and I'm not a Cowboys fan, just hear lots about how great they are since I moved to TX.
His constant meddling would drive me nuts as a fan. His coaching staff is a joke -- Garrett has no power, Ryan was a fall guy last year, replaced by Kiffin who may or may not still be a good coordinator. The excuse for the defense not having the right personnel is built in, given the scheme change. And they're razor thin on defense due to cap considerations elsewhere. But Ryan wasn't the problem… I'm not sure you can say whether Kiffen was the problem. Was Callahan really the problem this year? Now he's pissed off and we throw another cook in the kitchen in Linehan.
There's one constant in all of it… and considering the peek we got at their draft board and how they maneuvered the last draft, I think it's fair to question the decisions of that franchise until they prove us wrong. And believe me, I hope I am 1000000000% dead wrong about Miles Austin being retained.
This review of the Cowboys financial situation from overthecap.com mentions Austin as a likely cut, but also talks of the possibility that the Cowboys view their situation as only $2-4MM over the cap given built in restructures so evident in current contracts. Given the structure of Austin's deal, cutting him only saves the team $300K+ in immediate cap relief (a net negative impact considering the minimum contract to replace Austin). Designating him as a June 1 cut saves $5.5MM, but doesn't give the team any cap relief until June. So the article mentions the team approaching Austin with a restructure involving a pay cut, thereby giving the team immediate relief while offering Austin a chance to maintain his roster spot and play for a new contract in 2015. It certainly seems plausible, and scares me to death as a Terrance Williams owner.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I disagree.
Johnson finished #23 and #24 in '11 and '12 -- but the gap between him and guys you can pick up for nothing off the WW (WR35 or WR40 -- leaving aside that Johnson himself was a WW pickup) is maybe ~1.5ppg. You shouldn't be willing to give up anything remotely valuable to do that IMO, and T Williams is priced well above something "remotely valuable" today.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Jerry is horrible, no doubt. Didn't mean to suggest otherwise.
But I have to give the devil his due. Last year, the offensive line kept the Cowboys from a playoffs spot. This year, it was a strength. Knowing that, I think it made sense to go all in around this group. With a D line of Ware, Spencer, Ratliff, Hatcher, and Selvie--perhaps the defense isn't the major weakness that it was in 2013. The gamble didn't pay off and will cost the team, obviously, but I understand and even agree with it.
This is the first article I have read that doesn't treat Austin's departure as a given (called it very likely). I never considered them offering him a 1 million dollar deal, and maybe he'd even take it. But I think the odds of that happening are very low. They really like Williams and Beasley and I don't know that Austin is worth a roster spot, even, anymore.
And even in the unlikely event that Miles is on the roster, I still think Williams will demand the WR2 touches, nearly exclusively.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think Stevie is his ceiling, to be clear.
Stevie averaged 80/1050/7.6 over the 3 year span. WR2 numbers. I'd like to see a roster that doesn't have room for that. And here are some names he was 1.5 PPG ahead of: Crabtree, Garcon, Brown, DHB, Wayne, Wallace, Lloyd, Austin, Moore, Torrey, Boldin, Hilton, Roberts...
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
The games he started his catch rate was in the 30-40's. I know he started vs Det, Minn and NO without Austin. He had 5 catches with 22 targets, but he caught a few TDs. As I said, I have to check instead of talking our of my ###. He's Laurent Robinson to me. I think he'll be forgettable in 2-3 years. We'll see.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
He started every game after the initial Austin injury. The team just shuffled he and Austin, which cut into his targets.
He had a poor catch rate in 3 games, and they were back-to-back-to-back. The Lions game was a mess all around and I put a lot of that on Romo. I don't really remember the other two well enough to comment with any confidence. But I don't think a 3 game span is going to define his career, especially when the larger sample size was awesome.
I respect your opinion on the player, despite disagreeing with it. I think there are a lot of people that value him as you do, which is why I call him underrated. We'll see.
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Adam Harstad
Moderator
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I know two things.
First, in his last 16 games, Josh Gordon has 327 fantasy points (PPR). In his last 16 games with Minnesota, Percy Harvin had either 331 or 337 fantasy points, depending on whether your league counted his kickoff return touchdown.
Second, past failed drug tests correlate better with future failed drug tests than past injuries correlate with future injuries.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I think that, to some extent, that can make sense. Roster spots have value, after all. Most rookie receivers struggle to put up numbers right out of the gate, so if you buy a guy in year 2, you're getting the exact same player as if you bought him in year 1, but you're freeing up one year worth of a roster spot for someone more productive. In theory, a player SHOULD be more expensive right before/during his breakout than he was a year or two before his breakout. I would rather own Gavin Escobar a year from now than own him today, all else being equal. With that said, while it can make sense in theory, that doesn't mean I'm going to agree with all instances of it in practice.
You know what's really insane, though? So far this offseason, Justin Blackmon's ADP is higher than it was last offseason.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
In PPR leagues, Jordan Reed had more fantasy points per game than any rookie TE in NFL history other than Hall of Famer Mike Ditka, who sort of invented the position. It's hard to call #7 his ceiling, let alone his "absolute ceiling".
Concept Coop
Footballguy
True, but a player who didn't breakout year one is less likely to ever breakout than a player who did. No risk and all profit if you can trade your disappointing rookies in for a refund, and keep those who improved their value based on production.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If you think Jordan Reed is a historic talent -- good enough to command nine targets per game and catch over 70% of them, as he did from Week 7-11 -- then he's a no-brainer buy.
I don't see anything in his college background, draft position, or NFL results that suggest the team won't find someone else to send some of those throws to.
I don't see anything in his college background, draft position, or NFL results that suggest the team won't find someone else to send some of those throws to.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
He led his college team in receiving production his junior year, after being recruited as a QB. He was drafted in the 3rd to a team short on draft picks, despite his lack of blocking ability. And what more could we reasonably ask for, in terms of NFL production? Keep in mind, he wasn't even the starter week 1 and missed the pre-season.
I think it's more about the fact that he's 6'2", 240, and ran a 4.7.
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Gottabesweet
Footballguy
PPR what pick range would you send to acquire Ellington in start two and possible flex
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I like owning him, but any skepticism is due to situation. The other WR in WAS sucked outside of Garcon; add a good 2nd WR or another TE like miniGruden ran in Cincy had last year, and his stats go down. Or more precisely the hot streak is unsustainable. You mentioned on the previous page you thought he was all upside, but I don't see him having more upside than anyone above him, and there's a handful of guys below him who are equivalent.
MTskibum
Footballguy
I own ellington and would not sell him for less than 1.03. If I did not own him in my 2 dynasty leagues already I would be looking to get him for 1.06-1.10.
I think the jury's still out on Ellington. I mean he had over 1000 combined yds his rookie season on (very) limited usage. He doesn't need that many more touches to suddenly become extremely fantasy relevant. He looks explosive to me, and with just a little improvement he could be a great ppr RB.
Also, I don't even think we know what Vereen's upside is quite yet because injuries have derailed him much of his career. A healthy Vereen could be notching 65+ catch seasons, but we may never see what he could have been with all these iinjuries.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I'd prolly give a late 1st for Ellington. He's proven to be very explosive. That said he is 25 years old already.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Washington will have other legit receiving options sooner or later, only the very top tier TEs get nine targets a game under any circumstances and this entire hype is based off of a five-game stretch to begin with.
And that leaves aside the concussion concerns.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't think it is unsustainable at all. In fact, it was trending up. He's a match-up problem; that's not going change.
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