So... this is what I am saying.... brokers know because it is our business to know.... no one else does though. I will try to explain briefly in big strokes because otherwise it will be a very lengthy post.
Essentially, UWM is the best at what they do. No one comes close. They are built on speed and ease of use. They are heavily invested in proprietary technology for that speed and ease of use which is why brokers love them. Most brokers.... like 90%? range from LOVE to really like using them, very few complainers and to be honest most who don't like them it is because of user error, instead of using their tech they try to use them like another lender and get mad that it doesn't work. Most lenders, you lean on the Account Executive HEAVILY and a good AE makes or breaks the relationship. With UWM you have an AE but they are more of just a personal touch resource and if you try to lean on the AE like other lenders you will think they are horrible. I have heard brokers say that the big problem that Wall St doesn't understand is that they are treating them as another lender and they are more of a tech company than your run of the mill next in line lender.
Here is what I meant about dominating in the future. Right now.... if you are a lender, you are making money. Some wholesale lenders suck and the only way that they can attract business is by offering really low rates. Now, when I say suck, I mean, they will take months to close a loan with going back and forth on a long list of conditions and adding more conditions and then dropping the ball on the file etc. I mean dumpster fires that not only are a horror show for the broker but for the client as well. It doesn't matter how good a rate is if you can't close the damn thing.... their approach is basically throw everything against the wall and hopefully something sticks. Good lenders try to balance offering great rate with delivering as they are suppose to even if it takes a little time. UWM knows it is top of the line and so what they have done is raised their rates. They are NEVER the lowest rates right now when we do our shopping of wholesale but MANY (including me) brokers value their ability for speed and ease so that we get comments like "Wow, that was fast" and "Man, that was much easier than I thought it would be" from our clients. So, we take the hit on the pricing and make less money on the deal than we otherwise could of by using other lenders. So, if it is somewhat close and could to cost me $200 in commission to use UWM versus another lender to get that same rate, I am going to do it because it is worth it to me. Now, UWM isn't the only lender I use but I prefer them for sure. Most brokers are like me in that. UWM is taking the higher margins and reinvesting in itself to continue to get better. Now.... as rates increase what will happen? Many crappy lenders are going to be in trouble. If they have retail and wholesale, they may close up wholesale operations as no one uses them. Some will fail completely. More than a few will sell out. As volume decreases, UWM will lower their rates (before rates went down they did the same thing) and become a leader in rates as well as being the best in everything else. In the previous increasing rate environment, their volume and market share increased. That will continue as rates increase moving forward.
Stock price is forward looking as much as it tries to be... and in this case, those who do not understand the industry and company expect that their volume will decrease as the loans decrease thus less profits. I do not believe that will be the case. Their volume will increase and they will show dominance against other lenders who's volume decreases and they struggle.
A well known and respected guy in the broker community who established the broker professional association pretty much nailed it when he posted in a broker FB group recently "I just bought 1,000 shares of UWM. What will I do if the price falls further? Buy more." I am following suit.
Yes, this was the short version of the reply.