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Add/Drop and Waiver Wire wonderment thread: Do you still own Domingo Santana? (4 Viewers)

Robbie Ray has the 11th best xFIP of all qualified starters and gets the Mets at home and at the Padres this week.  He's gonna get his ks and is due some good luck. 

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Robbie Ray has the 11th best xFIP of all qualified starters and gets the Mets at home and at the Padres this week.  He's gonna get his ks and is due some good luck. 
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have been "riding" this guy all season in a leeg where I neglected pitching (which is actually every leeg every year for me).  the .355 babip is what really gets me.  I just can't see how a pitcher would be truly that bad.  I will say that I think the HR/FB rate is about right, especially given his home ballpark.  I have a theory that HR/FB rate correlates with BB rate, the thought being that guys with bad command sometimes miss out of the zone and issue a walk, but sometimes they miss in the zone and give up a dinger.  I guess that could explain some of the BABIP stuff too (guys squaring him up more easily). 

gun to my head I make him a 3.75 ERA guy the rest of the way (and that's including starts in his home park).  with the Ks included I think you take that all day.

 
Peyton Marino said:
have been "riding" this guy all season in a leeg where I neglected pitching (which is actually every leeg every year for me).  the .355 babip is what really gets me.  I just can't see how a pitcher would be truly that bad.  I will say that I think the HR/FB rate is about right, especially given his home ballpark.  I have a theory that HR/FB rate correlates with BB rate, the thought being that guys with bad command sometimes miss out of the zone and issue a walk, but sometimes they miss in the zone and give up a dinger.  I guess that could explain some of the BABIP stuff too (guys squaring him up more easily). 

gun to my head I make him a 3.75 ERA guy the rest of the way (and that's including starts in his home park).  with the Ks included I think you take that all day.
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The uptick in SwStr and GB's are encouraging, but he gives up too much hard contact (36.2%) given all the BB's.  However, over his last 11 starts those BB's have come down (2.16 per 9) and he's gotten through 6 in 7 of those starts.  If those BB's stay in that range then the hard contact issues are not nearly as problematic (and as you hypothesized, may stop being an issue).  I'd like to see improvement vs. righties (273/347/443) before making him a target next year, but there have been lots of encouraging signs since mid June.

 
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Dropped Javier Baez and Keon Broxton

Picked up Brandon Phillips and Ryan Schimpf

Dropping Baez bums me out. Guy spent half the season looking like he was on the verge of a breakthrough, but never quite busted through.

 
I'm in denial with Baez and Broxton, but I think there's a better chance of them finishing strong than anything on waivers and if I'm going to win I probably need them to.  If I were playing with a lead I'd be dropping them though.

 
MAC_32 said:
I'm in denial with Baez and Broxton, but I think there's a better chance of them finishing strong than anything on waivers and if I'm going to win I probably need them to.  If I were playing with a lead I'd be dropping them though.
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Exactly my situation. I just need some consistent production. Not sure Schimpf and Phillips will be the guys to provide it, but worth a shot.

 
pantagrapher said:
Is it time to drop Dee Gordon? I'm seriously considering it.
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Sure hasn't been a good week, but he's 20/0/5/9/270 since coming back 34 days ago.  A babip correction from 314 to something closer to the last 2 years and he'll be back up near 300 again.  I wouldn't be too concerned about him unless he loses a lot of PT when Dietrich comes back or your needs are more HR/RBI based.

 
MAC_32 said:
Sure hasn't been a good week, but he's 20/0/5/9/270 since coming back 34 days ago.  A babip correction from 314 to something closer to the last 2 years and he'll be back up near 300 again.  I wouldn't be too concerned about him unless he loses a lot of PT when Dietrich comes back or your needs are more HR/RBI based.
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I'm cutting bait. Another 0-5 night last night. 1 SB in his last 15 games. What really looks bad right now is that .302 OBP. He's just not finding a way to get on base. I'm sure he'll come out of this slump, but even when he does, I don't think his numbers will be any better than Josh Harrison (who I'm picking up).

Also probably helps that I have a safe lead in SB.

 
pantagrapher said:
I'm cutting bait. Another 0-5 night last night. 1 SB in his last 15 games. What really looks bad right now is that .302 OBP. He's just not finding a way to get on base. I'm sure he'll come out of this slump, but even when he does, I don't think his numbers will be any better than Josh Harrison (who I'm picking up).

Also probably helps that I have a safe lead in SB.
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It does.  Standard small sample size caveats, but his BB rate is actually up and his periph's don't indicate a skills regression so his AVG/OBP issues appear mainly BABIP driven.

 
For my H2H playoffs next week, add 2 start Gerrit Cole at Phiilies/at Reds or Dan Straily vs Brewers/vs Pirates?  I currently have Kevin Gausman who has just one start, and it's at the Red Sox.  Thoughts?

 
Straily has had 2 stinkers the past two weeks. With the extra rest, and the fact that he plays against the Phillies, I would go with Cole.

I am in 8th place this year in my league, so apparently I suck at this this year

 
I know nothing about H2H but I'd be cautious about Cole.  He's coming in cold without a rehab assignment and was poor right before going on the DL.  Even if he's good, I think the Pirates will be careful about letting him pitch deep into the start.  I rode Straily for a while but bailed after one bad start--his streak was fueled by unsustainably low BABIP.

I'd probably stick with Gausman but apparently two starts is a big thing.  Neat format.

 
Eephus said:
I know nothing about H2H but I'd be cautious about Cole.  He's coming in cold without a rehab assignment and was poor right before going on the DL.  Even if he's good, I think the Pirates will be careful about letting him pitch deep into the start.  I rode Straily for a while but bailed after one bad start--his streak was fueled by unsustainably low BABIP.

I'd probably stick with Gausman but apparently two starts is a big thing.  Neat format.
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It's a 35 IP minimum but lineups aren't locked. Having a two start pitcher is good for a Saturday or Sunday start if you really need something. 

 
Thanks for the input guys. I ended up going straily but then dropped him today for Hunter Strickland because I need saves. It actually gave me a loophole in league rules. Since I had straily to start the week and he has two starts, I'm still entitled those two starts meaning I can stream them this weekend if I need them. Strickland  can only be used to fill for a reliever I have on staff, but I'll plug him in for Andrew Miller or Alex Colome. Win/win, hope I win. 

 
I should have kept Straily and left Strickland alone.  First feeling the best feeling, ooooooof. 

Hoping Junior Guerra can bail me out of that poor decision. 

 
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D Travis and L Sardines have been hot, giving the latter a shot as it looks like I lost Bregman and Sardines plays in CO the next 3 nights

 
Most added in CBS leagues:

Reynolds, RZimm, and Margot

Most dropped:

JGomez, Dyson, Buxton

Devon Travis is gonna be flying up that dropped list soon.  Buxton is 3 for 34 with 19 K's, he's dropable in anything 10 teams or less.  Hell even 12 team leagues, this guy just doesn't get it yet. 

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Most added in CBS leagues:

Reynolds, RZimm, and Margot

Most dropped:

JGomez, Dyson, Buxton

Devon Travis is gonna be flying up that dropped list soon.  Buxton is 3 for 34 with 19 K's, he's dropable in anything 10 teams or less.  Hell even 12 team leagues, this guy just doesn't get it yet. 
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Reynolds and Zimmerman can't keep this up right?

margot is a baller, love watching him play

 
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What are the chances of a Jimmy Nelson breakout? I haven't had a chance to watch him this year. Looking at the early numbers, it appears he's up a tick (even with whatever juiced gun FG is using these days) and leaning more on the 4-seamer, throwing more 1st pitch strikes. 

I guess we'll get a clue when he goes to Wrigley in a few days. I'd guess Schwarber and the fellas will tee off on a few of those 1st pitch 4-seamers with the wind blowing out. If he doesn't get clobbered there, maybe there's something here.

 
pollardsvision said:
What are the chances of a Jimmy Nelson breakout? I haven't had a chance to watch him this year. Looking at the early numbers, it appears he's up a tick (even with whatever juiced gun FG is using these days) and leaning more on the 4-seamer, throwing more 1st pitch strikes. 

I guess we'll get a clue when he goes to Wrigley in a few days. I'd guess Schwarber and the fellas will tee off on a few of those 1st pitch 4-seamers with the wind blowing out. If he doesn't get clobbered there, maybe there's something here.
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He still was hitting 97 in the 7th inning last night  and apparently has a new change he picked up this spring . Not a fan of his home park but I'm buying

PHOENIX -- He grips the baseball like a circle changeup, only with his index finger and middle finger farther apart than usual. This is Jimmy Nelson's split-change, a new pitch he has refined this spring and expects to incorporate more this season.

"I feel like I have an equal amount of confidence in all of my pitches now," Nelson said. "Whereas before, it would be like, 'OK, my most confidence is in my fastball, then my breaking stuff, and then my changeup was last.' I would throw it in situations not to get hurt.

"Now, I like this pitch, and the action it has on it. It gets better the more I throw it."
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