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What if this were Lamar Millers rookie year - where would he rank? (1 Viewer)

A

a_rackowski

Footballguy
Coming out of Miami - Lamar Miller was expected to be a late first or worst a 2nd round pick. He slipped to the 4th round, ended up in Miami.

What if Lamar Miller were in this draft, picked by Miami...........where would he rank in dynasty rookie drafts? Am I alone in thinking he would be the top RB, if not the 1.1 in most drafts? Just looking for opinions.

When teams are looking to secure 1.1 in an effort to secure a RB, would they be better off and find a better bargain going for Lamar MIller?

 
Except owners in my league aren't selling Miller. I've found 1.01 to be cheaper.

ETA: But I'd rather have Miller

 
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a_rackowski said:
Coming out of Miami - Lamar Miller was expected to be a late first or worst a 2nd round pick. He slipped to the 4th round, ended up in Miami.

What if Lamar Miller were in this draft, picked by Miami...........where would he rank in dynasty rookie drafts? Am I alone in thinking he would be the top RB, if not the 1.1 in most drafts? Just looking for opinions.

When teams are looking to secure 1.1 in an effort to secure a RB, would they be better off and find a better bargain going for Lamar MIller?

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Lacy was a better prospect than Miller before his fall, and his fall was far shorter, and yet Lacy is usually falling out of the top 3 in rookie drafts this year.

 
I would take Miller ahead of this year's RB crop, but it isn't a no-brainer. There are reasonable arguments for several of the RBs.

 
Are you assuming they take Lamar in the 4th then come right back and take Gillislee in the 5th?

Lamar would have a late 1st value and we would all assume Daniel Thomas was the starter with a short leash.

He would be Zac Stacy.

 
Crippler said:
I got this as a no Brainer. I take Miller 1st overall in a league.
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I think this is a no brainier as well. I'd rank Miller as the top player in the rookie draft had he come out this year. I'm probably in the minority though as I saw Miller as a late 1st round talent last year. IMO he only dropped due to medical concerns with his shoulder. I'd rank him ahead of any RBs in this class based on talent.
 
As been said already, it's cheaper right now to trade for 1.1 than Miller in most cases. So if you're looking for a market value, I'd definitely say somewhere around 1.1-1.2 value.

 
ThePittbully said:
As been said already, it's cheaper right now to trade for 1.1 than Miller in most cases. So if you're looking for a market value, I'd definitely say somewhere around 1.1-1.2 value.
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Agreed. In a recent startup with a strong group of owners, Miller went 3.01. The first rookies off the board were late 3rd/early 4th.

I think this is a weird question with two different answers:

1. If we only had Miller drafted as an early 4th and no other info, he should be a late 1st in a rookie draft.

2. However, we have a year's worth of information. We know that his injury issue ended up being overblown and he was healthy all year. We know he looked very good against NFL defenses in a decent amount of carries last year. And we know that after seeing him up close for a year, Miami has decided to pretty much hand him the starting job on a silver platter, letting Reggie Bush walk and not doing much at all to bring in tough competition for him.

I think the best example in this year's draft may be another 4th rounder, Marcus Lattimore. If at this time next year, he has shown he is healthy, looked good with a solid number of carries, the 49ers have parted ways with Frank Gore, he is slated to be the starter in 2014, etc. then his value will be higher next year than it is today. Similarly, Miller's value is higher today than it was 1 year ago based on new information.

 
Based on this thread, I think he's a sell high. I doubt his value will ever be higher. Just because he's the default starter, does not mean he's the future of the Miami RB situation.

 
lbouchard said:
I own the 1.01, wouldn't give it for Miller.
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The only thing the 1.01 has on Miller is positional flexibility. Certainly non of the backs are all that great in this class. But you can use the 1.01 on Austin, Patterson, or Hopkins if you have deficiency at WR. Other than that, give me Miller all day.

 
Shanahanigans said:
Based on this thread, I think he's a sell high. I doubt his value will ever be higher. Just because he's the default starter, does not mean he's the future of the Miami RB situation.
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I counterpoint this by stating this is a very weak class. Non of the players in this class are sure bets. Not one.

 
Sabertooth said:
lbouchard said:
I own the 1.01, wouldn't give it for Miller.
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The only thing the 1.01 has on Miller is positional flexibility. Certainly non of the backs are all that great in this class. But you can use the 1.01 on Austin, Patterson, or Hopkins if you have deficiency at WR. Other than that, give me Miller all day.
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I don't think Miller is all that great either. I think he's overrated. None of the rookies might be sure bets (I'd say Hopkins is a sure bet, but he's not my 1.01), but Miller certainly is not either.

 
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Shanahanigans said:
Based on this thread, I think he's a sell high. I doubt his value will ever be higher. Just because he's the default starter, does not mean he's the future of the Miami RB situation.
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True. Also true of any rookie ever. Also true of any player that did not start last season. Also true of a number of players that did start last year. :shrug:

 
Sabertooth said:
Shanahanigans said:
Based on this thread, I think he's a sell high. I doubt his value will ever be higher. Just because he's the default starter, does not mean he's the future of the Miami RB situation.
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I counterpoint this by stating this is a very weak class. Non of the players in this class are sure bets. Not one.
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This may be a weak class, but I still would take Bernard, Bell, Austin, Patterson, Hopkins and Hunter over Miller, and depending on what happens Ball, Lacy, and Franklin could leap him. A lot would argue that Lacy and Ball are ahead of him now, but I'll give you that.

Also, I'm a Gillislee fan, so that makes me downgrade him. This situation reminds me of Daniel Thomas a few years back, a young RB who is made started by default, and has his value severely inflated in the offseason.

 
Lott said:
Shanahanigans said:
Based on this thread, I think he's a sell high. I doubt his value will ever be higher. Just because he's the default starter, does not mean he's the future of the Miami RB situation.
Click to expand...
True. Also true of any rookie ever. Also true of any player that did not start last season. Also true of a number of players that did start last year. :shrug:
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Not really, a lot of players that didn't start last season didn't fall into a starting role, and aren't as young as Miller. Age + Opportunity = Lamar Miller's value skyrocketing this offseason. Dynasty owners often get blinded by youth in the offseason. Personally I'm not buying, but feel free to bump this post during the season, and I'll have no problem eating crow.

 
I think some of it also has to do with the fact that the Dolphins brass let Bush walk, then didn't bring in anyone substantial to fill that void essentially giving the endorsement to Miller. Teams speak with their actions and inaction. All the tea leaves point to Miller having a big role. Whether he can do something with it remains to be seen.

 
And the current coaching staff traded 3 draft picks to move up a whopping 6 draft slots to pick Miller.

 
Lott said:
Shanahanigans said:
Based on this thread, I think he's a sell high. I doubt his value will ever be higher. Just because he's the default starter, does not mean he's the future of the Miami RB situation.
Click to expand...
True. Also true of any rookie ever. Also true of any player that did not start last season. Also true of a number of players that did start last year. :shrug:
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huh?

 
I would take Miller #1 if he were in the rookie drafts this year..................but I have no idea how people can call it a "no brainer".

It's not like if I see someone trade Miller for the #1 pick I am going to think they got robbed or something.

 
I agree. It is close with Miller, I give him a slight edge over Hopkins and Austin, who I have 1 and 2. I just don't think Bell or Lacy are going to get the opportunities that Miller is. Bernard is going to split with a bigger back and be more of a Warrick Dunn type of guy when he platooned with Alstott. I think Lacy is going to get the early down work much like Leshoure did last year. Although he will have some big games when the Packers are protecting a lead late. I think Bell is going to be a bust to be quite honest. Brandon Jacobs type of production, especially with that offensive line...he's going to get hit early and often in the backfield. None of these guys are special. I think what you are going to see here is a back come out of nowhere like Alfred Morris did. I don't expect them, obviously to have that kind of production, just saying I think the head of this class is going to be a pick that earns his way up. Playing the numbers game, I think it will be a Saturday pick (meaning 4th rounder or later) Joseph Randle or Stepfon Taylor come to mind...somebody like that.

Now with Miller you have a lot going for you. You have youth (he's right in the middle of all these guys for age at 22, some rookies are older, some younger). He had the injury concern last season but it was a shoulder and must be ok by now judging by the Phins inaction in bringing anyone of not in. Also he was a speed guy and his legs are in perfect shape. He also has prototypical size at 5'10" 218. That's a body type that can withstand some punishment. I could go on and on here but I am going to just repost Matt Waldman's article because he is a lot smarter than me.

from Matt Waldman RSP page: Evan Silva termed Miami running back Lamar Miller “the early preseason-buzz MVP.” Understandable. He’s a back whose talents reminded me of two of his University of Miami predecessors: Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James. The 2012 rookie is earning a lot ofencouraging PR from his organization. With Reggie Bush leaving and third-year back Daniel Thomas not flashing the promise that Miller demonstrated in limited time, there’s good reason for Miller to be coined an emerging talent in 2013.

Miller was my No.3 back in the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio behind Trent Richardson and Doug Martin. Here’s my brief summary of Miller from these rankings:

Lamar Miller is a potential Pro Bowl back. He’s at the sweet spot in terms of height, weight, speed, and acceleration. He runs with patience, balance, and he protects the football. He understands how to stay close to his blocks until an opening develops and like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James before him, he knows how to shorten his steps in traffic until he finds a cutback lane or alternate crease when the primary hole doesn’t come open. He runs with good balance and power between the tackles. He can run through contact and he has good enough footwork to prevent defenders from getting angles on him. He bends runs with good speed and he has shown some skill to pick and slide towards creases or press a crease and cut back. He keeps his legs moving after contact and his pad level is consistently low enough that he bounces off hits and maximizes his output on carries. He knows how to minimize his surface area in the hole and still get down hill fast.

Miller is fast and his burst is Pro Bowl-caliber in the respect that when given a hole he can accelerate past all three levels of a defense and turn a 10-yard gain into a 40-yard touchdown. There is little doubt that Miller has a ton of physical talent, but there are plays where he seems to go out of bounds too willingly where he could have fought to stay in the field of play and gain more yardage. These plays occurred when time wasn’t a factor for the drive. Miller catches the ball as well as any back in this class. He uses his hands to snare passes and he repeatedly demonstrated the ability to catch the errant throw with good body control and concentration. I saw him make an acrobatic catch that was over 25 yards from release point to reception that many college WR’s can’t make.

Miller’s effort as a blocker is not good enough. He will deliver a punch and he has skill at getting the correct angle to make a block. However, he doesn’t sustain the contact and work hard enough to maintain that position. Miller diagnoses blocks effectively, but he has to do better with his cut blocking. He drops his head too early As a run blocker, he seems more worried about getting hit from behind or hurt in the act of blocking that helping his teammates make plays.

I can see the Clinton Portis comparisons because Miller has game-breaking speed, explosive lateral agility, and enough down hill power and balance to generate big plays in multiple ways. The difference is that Miller makes running the football look easier than Portis did in college and I think it might be part of the perception that his effort isn’t always there when in fact, he’s just more graceful than people realize. Purely on ability, he could start for an NFL team today. The key will be how well he transitions from a college campus to professional life.

Lamar Miller highlights:



After the draft, I dropped Miller a couple spots in my post-draft rankings, listing him as a “bad fit,” with a caveat:

Here’s another loaded depth chart situation in Miami where the draft pick will have to beat multiple teammates for an opportunity. Although Miller and Daniel Thomas are different styles of runner, Reggie Bush played well enough that it’s difficult to expect the rookie will see playing time as more than a return specialist unless Bush gets hurt. Past history does call Bush’s durability into question, but the former Saints runner stayed healthy in 2011. Running back has a short-term career cycle in the NFL so calling Miller’s fit “bad” today can change to “great” tomorrow.

Apparently, tomorrow is here. Below are links to play-by-play reports and grading reports from two of the three games that I believe best represent Miller’s skill and potential. These reports are the backbone for the analysis that I provide to those who download the Rookie Scouting Portfolio every year. My readers who want the bottom-line may not spend a lot of time with this portion of the publication, but they know the analysis they get in the front of the book is based on the exhaustive detail of the process I share for the sake of transparency.
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Sabertooth said:
I agree. It is close with Miller, I give him a slight edge over Hopkins and Austin, who I have 1 and 2. I just don't think Bell or Lacy are going to get the opportunities that Miller is.
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Talent over situation. I wouldn't base your Miller decision on on how many opportunities he'll get next season, I'd base it on whether or not you think Miller is more talented than Bell, Ball, Bernard, Lacy, Franklin, Austin, Hopkins, Patterson, or Hunter.

 
I think he is more talented and in a better situation.

It also depends on how you define talent. Bernard for instance might be better at catching and have better feet inare traffic. But he lacks the size and ability to hit the long runs like Miller.

When I say talent and I just kind of put it all together as " Ability to generate fantasy points throughout the season."

Who had more talent? Sjax or Westbroook? Both had different skill sets.

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Lott said:
Shanahanigans said:
Based on this thread, I think he's a sell high. I doubt his value will ever be higher. Just because he's the default starter, does not mean he's the future of the Miami RB situation.
Click to expand...
True. Also true of any rookie ever. Also true of any player that did not start last season. Also true of a number of players that did start last year. :shrug:
Click to expand...
huh?
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I was specifically talking about the bolded. I just think that is a very vague statement.

 
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