maf005 97 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev8 46 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (31)Hey ZWK, good stuff but I'd like to make a case for DGB.In his rookie season, he started out slow.Over the first 11 games TEN WR Dorial Green-Beckham produced:- 16 receptions- 243 yards- 2 TDsAverage per game:- 1,45 receptions per game - 22,09 yards per game- ,18TDs per gameOver the final 5 games he produced:- 16 receptions- 306 yards- 1 TDAverage per game - 3,2 receptions per game- 61.2 yards per game- .20 TDs per gameHe showed a significant increase in production over the final month of his rookie season and I believe the Titans will utilize his size/strength/frame more in the red-zone in 2016. He should be ranked higher than the 46th best dynasty WR IMHO.I'd be curious to know DGB's per snap or per target numbers.Rotowire will give you both target and snap counts. 2016 DGB had 67 targets in 580 snaps.He had a lot of garbage games early where he was on the field but not targeted. And obviously his catch rate is bad.Still his DVOA is mediocre (as in "not bad enough to be worried about", better than Funchess/Agholor).Just to take the other side of the DGB debate..The biggest knock on him was that he was very unpolished in terms of WR skills, lacked football iq, wasn't a sudden athlete, and had questionable off field decision making.He seems to have overcome the off field issues but as far as being a WR, he doesn't seem to have made much progress.Although Mariota has improved his team situation greatly, it's still Tennessee (sorry titans fans). Dynasty owners still have that ever-important potential to cling on to though Quote Link to post Share on other sites
thriftyrocker 346 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 DGB's ADP right now is 36.7 overall. Given ZWK's comments I wouldn't take his really low ranking as a "sell at all costs" ranking but it reads like that compared to DGB's ADP.I think it's interesting to compare to Funchess. Analytically they are not that much different. NFL draft stock is 1 pick apart, DGB had one more reception last year, Funchess had one more TD, DGB had a lot more yards (and obviously yards per reception). Funchess' ranking is right at his ADP (ADP WR39, ZWK ranking WR40). But DGB is elevated much higher by the community.I don't think DBG's ADP advantage is at all due to his play. It's more due to his reputation out of HS combined with draftnik evaluations. Few outside of Xue would argue over Funchess not being higher. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SWC 15,164 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 zwk it is a rule that if you have three letters names you have to write like this and end things by taking them to the bank otherwise nice list as always brohan 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Edit: The Jags had 35 passing TDs vs. 5 rushing TDs this year. That's a huge, huge outlier and is guaranteed to regress.I like Bortles, and I don't think the "garbage time" stats are particularly meaningful to determining his dynasty value... but this is a compelling fact to remember, at least in the near term.I actually wrote about garbage time earlier this year with respect to DeAndre Hopkins. My finding at the time: if we defined "garbage time" as "trailing by 14+ points", Hopkins led the league in "garbage time" receiving yards by a substantial margin.The problem? DeAndre Hopkins also ranked 9th in the NFL in receiving yards *OUTSIDE* of garbage time. DeAndre Hopkins had a crap-ton of yards, and so he was at or near the top of the leaderboard in every single split. And Houston, in particular, was terrible, so Hopkins spent a much higher percentage of his time on the field trailing big than did, say, Antonio Brown. Hopkins had more than three times as many garbage-time snaps as the average NFL receiver at that point of the year.34.3% of Hopkins' yards came in "garbage time", (defined, again, as trailing by 14+ points). 33.0% of Houston's total offensive snaps came in garbage time. 37.6% of Houston's pass attempts came in garbage time. 41.0% of Houston's passing yards came in garbage time. Hopkins averaged 1.52 yards per offensive snap when the team was down by 14+ points, and 1.44 yards per offensive snap when the team was not; over a full season, that would work out to a difference of about 80 yards, give or take.So Hopkins' production during garbage time wasn't at all disproportionate to what you'd expect given his production outside of garbage time and the amount of time he spent in garbage time. And I strongly suspect that if I ran a similar analysis for Blake Bortles, I'd return a similar result. Which is why I hate holding "garbage time" against a player; usually it's done in a half-baked way that doesn't at all measure whether the player's production was at all out of line with what we should have expected.(As an aside: Andrew Luck's production without question *WAS* disproportionately concentrated during garbage time this year. But I have no reason to believe that that's anything other than random numbers behaving randomly over a small sample; I've yet to see any studies showing any predictive value whatsoever to information like this.)See Stafford. Like Bortes played with a great wr, had a ton of garbage time stats and was hyped up to the moon. When the garbage went away his stats plummetedStafford's 2011 and Bortles's 2015 are a pretty fair comparison. The both had a ton of pass attempts, a ton of passing TDs, and an averageish yards per attempt. Jacksonville's offense might have seemed less pass-heavy than Detroit's 2011 (when Stafford led the NFL in attempts), but if you count passing plays (passes + sacks + scrambles) it's up there. Although Stafford after 2011 was actually a pretty promising prospect, it's just that 2011 continues to be his career high in almost every passing stat (including efficiency stats as well as volume stats). Bortles's 2015 was not as good in terms of the raw numbers, but he still has some upside beyond what Stafford has become given that he's young & the third overall pick.Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev8 46 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (31)Hey ZWK, good stuff but I'd like to make a case for DGB.In his rookie season, he started out slow.Over the first 11 games TEN WR Dorial Green-Beckham produced:- 16 receptions- 243 yards- 2 TDsAverage per game:- 1,45 receptions per game - 22,09 yards per game- ,18TDs per gameOver the final 5 games he produced:- 16 receptions- 306 yards- 1 TDAverage per game - 3,2 receptions per game- 61.2 yards per game- .20 TDs per gameHe showed a significant increase in production over the final month of his rookie season and I believe the Titans will utilize his size/strength/frame more in the red-zone in 2016. He should be ranked higher than the 46th best dynasty WR IMHO.I've already been convinced that I had DGB too low. I moved him up to WR41 (right behind Funchess) in my WR update which I tacked to the end of my post with RB rankings. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted May 16, 2016 Author Share Posted May 16, 2016 Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16 for the then-top-61, and from 1/11/16 for the rest. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 23.8 (1) 2 2 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 24.2 (4) 2 3 Sammy Watkins BUF 23.2 (5) 2 4 Julio Jones ATL 27.6 (2) 2 5 Antonio Brown PIT 28.1 (3) 3 6 Allen Robinson JAX 23.0 (7) 3 7 Amari Cooper OAK 22.2 (9) 3 8 A.J. Green CIN 28.1 (6) 3 9 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26.5 (8) 4 10 Dez Bryant DAL 27.8 (11) 4 11 Randall Cobb GB 26.0 (12) 4 12 Mike Evans TB 23.0 (14) 4 13 T.Y. Hilton IND 26.8 (13) 4 14 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28.7 (10) 4 15 Brandin Cooks NO 22.9 (15) 5 16 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25.6 (19) 5 17 Devante Parker MIA 23.6 (17) 5 18 Kevin White CHI 24.2 (18) 5 19 Keenan Allen SD 24.3 (16) 5 20 Corey Coleman CLE 22.2 unr 5 21 Josh Doctson WAS 23.7 unr 6 22 Julian Edelman NE 30.3 (22) 6 23 Jeremy Maclin KC 28.3 (23) 6 24 Laquon Treadwell MIN 21.2 unr 6 25 Jarvis Landry MIA 23.8 (21) 6 26 Jordy Nelson GB 31.3 (25) 6 27 Brandon Marshall NYJ 32.4 (24) 6 28 Donte Moncrief IND 23.1 (28) 6 29 Jordan Matthews PHI 24.1 (30) 7 30 Martavis Bryant PIT 24.7 (20) 7 31 Josh Gordon CLE 25.4 (29) 7 32 Golden Tate DET 28.1 (31) 7 33 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 33.0 (26) 7 34 Doug Baldwin SEA 28.9 (32) 7 35 Leonte Carroo MIA 22.6 unr 7 36 Eric Decker NYJ 29.5 (34) 7 37 Allen Hurns JAX 24.8 (33) 7 38 John Brown ARI 26.4 (35) 7 39 Michael Floyd ARI 26.8 (44) 7 40 Phillip Dorsett IND 23.7 (38) 7 41 William Fuller HOU 22.4 unr 7 42 Tyler Lockett SEA 23.9 (37) 7 43 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 29.4 (43) 7 44 DeSean Jackson WAS 29.7 (36) 7 45 Breshad Perriman BAL 23.0 (42) 7 46 Michael Thomas NO 23.5? unr 7 47 Sterling Shepard NYG 23.5 unr 7 48 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (41) 7 49 Devin Funchess CAR 22.3 (40) 8 50 Tyler Boyd CIN 22.8 unr 8 51 Davante Adams GB 23.7 (39) 8 52 Nelson Agholor PHI 23.3 (45) 8 53 Michael Crabtree OAK 29.0 (46) 8 54 Travis Benjamin SD 26.7 (52) 8 55 Stefon Diggs MIN 22.8 (48) 8 56 Willie Snead NO 23.9 (49) 8 57 Marvin Jones DET 26.5 (79) 8 58 Kendall Wright TEN 26.8 (51) 8 59 Tavon Austin RAM 25.5 (47) 8 60 Torrey Smith SF 27.6 (53) 8 61 Devin Smith NYJ 24.5 (54) 9 62 Braxton Miller HOU 23.8 unr 9 63 Malcolm Mitchell NE 24.1 unr 9 64 Ty Montgomery GB 23.6 (57) 9 65 Sammie Coates PIT 23.4 (58) 9 66 Pierre Garcon WAS 30.1 (55) 9 67 Ted Ginn CAR 31.4 (56) 9 68 Jermaine Kearse SEA 26.6 (60) 9 69 Chris Hogan NE 27.9 unr 9 70 Kenny Britt RAM 27.9 (61) 10 71 Markus Wheaton PIT 25.6 (61) 10 72 Jaelen Strong HOU 22.6 (59) 10 73 Mike Wallace BAL 30.1 (98) 10 74 DeAndre Smelter SF 24.7 (87) 10 75 Justin Blackmon JAX 26.6 (62) 10 76 Kamar Aiken BAL 27.3 (65) 10 77 Steve Smith BAL 37.4 (66) 10 78 Danny Amendola NE 30.8 (68) 10 79 Marqise Lee JAX 24.8 (69) 10 80 Cody Latimer DEN 23.9 (70) 10 81 Jeff Janis GB 25.2 (71) 10 82 Chris Conley KC 23.9 (73) 10 83 Victor Cruz NYG 29.8 (78) 11 84 Trevor Davis GB 23.2 unr 11 85 Moritz Boehringer MIN 22.9 unr 11 86 Rishard Matthews TEN 26.9 (82) 11 87 Vincent Jackson TB 33.6 (67) 11 88 Jared Abbrederis GB 25.7 (74) 11 89 Paul Richardson SEA 24.4 (76) 11 90 Rueben Randle PHI 25.3 (60) 11 91 Steve Johnson SD 30.1 (75) 11 92 Terrance Williams DAL 27.0 (77) 11 93 Albert Wilson KC 24.1 (80) 11 94 Brian Quick RAM 27.2 (83) 11 95 Corey Brown CAR 24.7 (91) 12 96 Marquess Wilson CHI 24.0 (84) 12 97 Brandon Coleman NO 24.2 (86) 12 98 Charles Johnson MIN 27.5 (85) 12 99 Anquan Boldin FA 35.9 (88) 12 100 Chris Moore BAL 23.2 unr 12 101 Quinton Patton SF 26.1 (99) 12 102 Mike Thomas RAM 22.0 unr 12 103 D.J. Foster NE 22ish unr 12 104 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 25.5 (89) 12 105 Robert Woods BUF 24.4 (92) 12 106 Rashard Higgins CLE 21.9 unr 12 107 Mohamed Sanu ATL 27.0 unr 13 108 Cecil Shorts HOU 28.7 (90) 13 109 Eddie Royal CHI 30.3 (94) 13 110 James Jones FA 32.4 (81) 13 111 Rod Streater KC 28.6 unr 13 112 Justin Hunter TEN 25.3 (95) 13 113 Kenny Stills MIA 24.4 (96) 13 114 Terrelle Pryor CLE 27.2 (100) 13 115 Devin Lucien NE 23.2 unr 13 116 Ricardo Louis CLE 22.4 unr 13 117 Pharoh Cooper RAM 21.5 unr 13 118 Demarcus Robinson KC 22ish unr 13 119 Tajae Sharpe TEN 21.7 unr 13 120 Nate Washington NE 33.0 unr 13 121 Josh Huff PHI 24.9 (101) 13 122 Jordan Payton CLE 23.0 unr 13 123 Hakeem Nicks FA 28.6 (102) 13 124 Brandon LaFell CIN 29.8 (63) 13 125 Stedman Bailey RAM 25.8 (97) 13 126 Danario Alexander FA 28.0 unr I won't post much commentary. I did do a blind re-rank of the top players since my last WR post, in order to help de-anchor myself on my old rankings. The main change was to move up the younger WRs near the top of the rankings, which is something that other folks were arguing for. I have said a lot more about the rookies in my other thread, most recently here and also in posts like these. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,096 Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 Nice list Z. I wish I understood your tiering method a bit better. It is clear to me what players are in each tier, it just isn't clear to me how much separates each tier. I know I have asked about this a couple times before (I remember that I forgot I already asked before at least once ) . Is the difference between tier 3 and tier 4 the same as the difference between tier 7 and tier 8? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted May 16, 2016 Author Share Posted May 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, Biabreakable said: Nice list Z. I wish I understood your tiering method a bit better. It is clear to me what players are in each tier, it just isn't clear to me how much separates each tier. I know I have asked about this a couple times before (I remember that I forgot I already asked before at least once ) . Is the difference between tier 3 and tier 4 the same as the difference between tier 7 and tier 8? A tier break doesn't have a precise meaning. Basically, if there's a tier break between 2 players it means that even though they are right next to each other in the rankings, there is still a gap between them in terms of how much I value them. DGB vs. Devin Funchess is a closer call than Funchess vs. Tyler Boyd. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
EBF 1,924 Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 2 hours ago, ZWK said: Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16 for the then-top-61, and from 1/11/16 for the rest. 9 64 Ty Montgomery GB 23.6 (57) 10 74 DeAndre Smelter SF 24.7 (87) 11 85 Moritz Boehringer MIN 22.9 unr Three guys I would be looking at in a startup, especially the latter two. Lots of upside at a low cost. Can't wait to see if Smelter is legit. Montgomery is a different style of WR with a lower ceiling, but that offense could be nice. You are really bullish on Carroo. I see potential there, but not enough to put him that high yet. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
fruity pebbles 3,224 Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 Carroo looks like an outlier to me and i like the guy a lot. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bostonfred 29,979 Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 12 hours ago, ZWK said: 5 17 Devante Parker MIA 23.6 (17) 6 25 Jarvis Landry MIA 23.8 (21) 7 35 Leonte Carroo MIA 22.6 unr Where do you have tannehill ranked? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
gianmarco 27,958 Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 (edited) Edelman looks so completely out of place on that list at WR#22. --30 years old --Coming off a 2nd surgery for his broken foot this offseason --Almost entirely situational dependent and is paired with a 39 yo Brady who is about to fall off a very steep cliff --Has one career 1000 yd season (1056) and that was in 2013 (out of 7 seasons). Career high of 7 TDs. There is no way I can see anyone considering this guy over the likes of Treadwell, Landry, Matthews just to name a few. Ranking a guy that high that is old, coming off injury, and no pedigree that is productive almost entirely due to his situation is a recipe for disaster, IMO. ETA--Especially in a 0.5 ppr setting. Receptions are really the only thing he's got going for him. Edited May 16, 2016 by gianmarco 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Liquid Courage 8 Posted May 16, 2016 Share Posted May 16, 2016 Are folks still high on Kelvin Benjamin? I have big concerns with him - especially with the stories from last year of him showing up at OTA and Camp overweight. Have him on my dynasty team and have been entertaining thoughts of trying to trade him. But if he is still top 20 and WR1, then I'll hold on to him. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted May 16, 2016 Author Share Posted May 16, 2016 14 hours ago, EBF said: You are really bullish on Carroo. I see potential there, but not enough to put him that high yet. 5 hours ago, fruity pebbles said: Carroo looks like an outlier to me and i like the guy a lot. 5 hours ago, bostonfred said: 17 hours ago, ZWK said: 5 17 Devante Parker MIA 23.6 (17) 6 25 Jarvis Landry MIA 23.8 (21) 7 35 Leonte Carroo MIA 22.6 unr Where do you have tannehill ranked? Tier 7 is relatively tightly packed - for example, I don't see that big a difference between Golden Tate (WR32) and Devin Funchess (WR49). There is a relatively steep dropoff in value from WR1 to WR30, and then things flatten out a lot. Carroo at WR35 is near the top of that tier, but far ahead of the rest of it. I'm trusting my numbers & gut on Carroo in putting him near the top of that tier. That is based on liking his upside, rather than on thinking that he's a safe bet to do well. I'm not very high on Tannehill - I have him at QB19. But I'm not betting that all three of his receivers are going to be good. All three of them are young and relatively high upside. It only takes one hit from the Parker/Landry/Carroo trio (at the AJ Green / Wes Welker level) for the group to hit (or exceeded) value. And if more than one of them hits, they might wind up on different teams in a few years rather than stealing targets from each other. 1 hour ago, gianmarco said: Edelman looks so completely out of place on that list at WR#22. --30 years old --Coming off a 2nd surgery for his broken foot this offseason --Almost entirely situational dependent and is paired with a 39 yo Brady who is about to fall off a very steep cliff --Has one career 1000 yd season (1056) and that was in 2013 (out of 7 seasons). Career high of 7 TDs. There is no way I can see anyone considering this guy over the likes of Treadwell, Landry, Matthews just to name a few. Ranking a guy that high that is old, coming off injury, and no pedigree that is productive almost entirely due to his situation is a recipe for disaster, IMO. ETA--Especially in a 0.5 ppr setting. Receptions are really the only thing he's got going for him. I see Edelman, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, and Larry Fitzgerald as relatively similar fantasy players - older guys who could be fantasy WR1s. Edelman is the youngest of the four (by 1-3 years). He was a top 10 WR last year in ppg, and has been up there for the past 3 years (with an average of 106/1168/7 per 16 games, including rushing stats). And New England has had a receiver succeeding in that role since 2007, with only a modest drop in production when Cassel was QB and a somewhat larger drop when Welker was recovering from his ACL. He is definitely situation-dependent, but he seems pretty well locked into that situation for now. Fitzgerald is the oldest of the four, and has been the least productive in recent years, so he is behind the others. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted May 17, 2016 Author Share Posted May 17, 2016 Post-draft running back rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 24.5 (1) 1 2 Todd Gurley RAM 22.1 (2) 2 3 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 21.1 unr 2 4 David Johnson ARI 24.7 (3) 4 5 Devonta Freeman ATL 24.5 (4) 4 6 Lamar Miller HOU 25.4 (10) 4 7 Mark Ingram NO 26.7 (9) 4 8 Jamaal Charles KC 29.7 (6) 4 9 Eddie Lacy GB 26.3 (11) 4 10 Doug Martin TB 27.6 (8) 4 11 LeSean McCoy BUF 28.1 (7) 4 12 Jeremy Hill CIN 23.9 (5) 5 13 Derrick Henry TEN 22.1 unr 5 14 Carlos Hyde SF 25.0 (15) 5 15 Ameer Abdullah DET 23.2 (14) 5 16 Thomas Rawls SEA 23.1 (17) 5 17 Adrian Peterson MIN 31.4 (13) 5 18 Giovani Bernard CIN 24.8 (18) 5 19 Dion Lewis NE 25.9 (20) 5 20 T.J. Yeldon JAX 22.9 (16) 5 21 Melvin Gordon SD 23.4 (12) 6 22 C.J. Anderson DEN 25.6 (28) 6 23 Karlos Williams BUF 23.3 (22) 6 24 Latavius Murray OAK 25.5 (19) 6 25 Matt Jones WAS 23.5 (21) 6 26 Jeremy Langford CHI 24.7 (23) 6 27 Matt Forte NYJ 30.7 (24) 6 28 Duke Johnson CLE 22.9 (30) 6 29 Jonathan Stewart CAR 29.4 (25) 6 30 Jay Ajayi MIA 23.2 (49) 6 31 Kenyan Drake MIA 22.6 unr 6 32 Ryan Mathews PHI 28.9 (31) 6 33 Jerick McKinnon MIN 24.3 (39) 6 34 Charles Sims TB 26.0 (41) 6 35 Arian Foster FA 30.0 (26) 6 36 Justin Forsett BAL 30.9 (27) 6 37 Andre Ellington ARI 27.6 (32) 6 38 DeMarco Murray TEN 28.5 (34) 6 39 C.J. Prosise SEA 22.3 unr 6 40 Tevin Coleman ATL 23.4 (42) 6 41 Kenneth Dixon BAL 22.6 unr 7 42 Danny Woodhead SD 31.7 (33) 7 43 Frank Gore IND 33.3 (43) 7 44 Paul Perkins NYG 21.8 unr 7 45 Devontae Booker DEN 24.3 unr 7 46 Isaiah Crowell CLE 23.6 (38) 7 47 Jordan Howard CHI 21.8 unr 7 48 Rashad Jennings NYG 31.4 (44) 7 49 Chris Ivory JAX 28.4 (36) 7 50 Bilal Powell NYJ 27.8 (40) 7 51 Ronnie Hillman DEN 25.0 (37) 7 52 James White NE 24.6 (45) 7 53 Alfred Morris DAL 27.7 (50) 7 54 LeGarrette Blount NE 29.7 (47) 7 55 Christine Michael SEA 25.8 (35) 7 56 Spencer Ware KC 24.8 (58) 7 57 DeAngelo Williams PIT 33.4 (48) 8 58 Charcandrick West KC 25.3 (52) 8 59 C.J. Spiller NO 29.1 (53) 8 60 Alex Collins SEA 22.0 unr 8 61 Javorius Allen BAL 25.0 (62) 9 62 Theo Riddick DET 25.3 unr 8 63 Shane Vereen NYG 27.5 (54) 8 64 Jonathan Williams BUF 22.6 unr 8 65 Tyler Ervin HOU 22.9 unr 8 66 Khiry Robinson NYJ 26.7 (46) 8 67 Denard Robinson JAX 25.9 (55) 8 68 Zach Zenner DET 25.0 (81) 9 69 DeAndre Washington OAK 23.5 unr 9 70 Daniel Lasco NO 23.9 unr 9 71 Trent Richardson BAL 26.1 unr 9 72 Darius Jackson DAL 22.8 unr 9 73 Keith Marshall WAS 22.5 unr 9 74 James Starks GB 30.5 (64) 9 75 Chris Johnson ARI 30.9 (56) 9 76 Cameron Artis-Payne CAR 26.2 (66) 9 77 Alfred Blue HOU 25.3 (57) 9 78 David Cobb TEN 23.2 (59) 9 79 Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 24.7 (60) 9 80 Stevan Ridley DET 27.6 (67) 9 81 Darren McFadden DAL 29.0 (51) 9 82 Benny Cunningham RAM 26.2 (63) 9 83 Bishop Sankey TEN 24.0 (61) 9 84 Darren Sproles PHI 33.2 (65) 9 85 Travaris Cadet NO 27.6 (68) 9 86 Wendell Smallwood PHI 22.6 unr 9 87 Tre Mason RAM 23.1 (75) 9 88 Robert Turbin IND 26.7 unr 9 89 Zac Stacy NYJ 25.4 (79) 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,096 Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 What happened to tier three? I guess there is a big gap between tier 2 and tier 4? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted May 17, 2016 Author Share Posted May 17, 2016 5 minutes ago, Biabreakable said: What happened to tier three? I guess there is a big gap between tier 2 and tier 4? Yeah. Devonta Freeman was tier 3, until I decided that he was a lot closer to Lamar Miller than to David Johnson. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
az_prof 509 Posted May 17, 2016 Share Posted May 17, 2016 On 5/16/2016 at 9:30 PM, EBF said: Three guys I would be looking at in a startup, especially the latter two. Lots of upside at a low cost. Can't wait to see if Smelter is legit. Montgomery is a different style of WR with a lower ceiling, but that offense could be nice. You are really bullish on Carroo. I see potential there, but not enough to put him that high yet. I agree on Carroo being too high. I own Hurns and would never trade him for Carroo. In fact, I would have to get a player in Tier 6 to even consider moving him. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 Post-draft quarterback rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/20/16. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Cam Newton CAR 27.3 (4) 1 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 32.8 (2) 1 3 Russell Wilson SEA 27.8 (3) 1 4 Andrew Luck IND 27.0 (1) 3 5 Marcus Mariota TEN 22.8 (5) 3 6 Jameis Winston TB 22.7 (6) 3 7 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 34.5 (7) 4 8 Matt Ryan ATL 31.3 (8) 4 9 Jared Goff RAM 21.9 unr 4 10 Derek Carr OAK 25.4 (9) 4 11 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27.1 (10) 4 12 Blake Bortles JAX 24.7 (12) 4 13 Tom Brady NE 39.1 (11) 4 14 Carson Wentz PHI 23.7 unr 4 15 Andy Dalton CIN 28.8 (14) 4 16 Carson Palmer ARI 36.7 (13) 5 17 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 23.8 (15) 5 18 Drew Brees NO 37.6 (16) 5 19 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28.1 (18) 5 20 Paxton Lynch DEN 22.6 unr 5 21 Colin Kaepernick SF 28.8 (17) 5 22 Philip Rivers SD 34.7 (19) 5 23 Matthew Stafford DET 28.6 (20) 5 24 Kirk Cousins WAS 28.0 (21) 5 25 Robert Griffin III CLE 26.5 (24) 5 26 Eli Manning NYG 35.7 (22) 5 27 Tony Romo DAL 36.4 (23) 6 28 Brock Osweiler HOU 25.8 (33) 6 29 Alex Smith KC 34.4 (26) 6 30 Jay Cutler CHI 33.3 (28) 6 31 Ryan Fitzpatrick PHI 33.8 (27) 7 32 Joe Flacco BAL 31.6 (29) 7 33 Sam Bradford PHI 28.8 (30) 7 34 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 24.8 (32) 8 35 Blaine Gabbert SF 26.9 (34) 8 36 Geno Smith NYJ 25.9 (35) 8 37 Christian Hackenberg NYJ 21.5 unr 8 38 Johnny Manziel CLE 23.7 (25) 8 39 Cody Kessler CLE 23.3 unr 8 40 Bryce Petty NYJ 25.3 (40) 8 41 Chase Daniel PHI 29.9 unr 8 42 A.J. McCarron CIN 26.0 (36) 8 43 Landry Jones PIT 27.4 (37) 8 44 Brett Hundley GB 23.2 (46) 9 45 Garrett Grayson NO 25.3 (41) 9 46 Jacoby Brissett NE 23.7 unr 9 47 Nick Foles RAM 27.6 (39) 9 48 Josh McCown CLE 37.2 (43) 9 49 Mark Sanchez DEN 29.8 (44) 9 50 Zach Mettenberger SD 25.1 (42) 9 51 Brian Hoyer CHI 30.9 (38) 9 52 EJ Manuel BUF 26.5 (47) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Adso 27 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 On 5/16/2016 at 9:29 PM, ZWK said: Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16 for the then-top-61, and from 1/11/16 for the rest. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 5 19 Keenan Allen SD 24.3 (16) To start, love this thread and the conversation on it. This is not a slam, just curious about this placement. That said, I really don't get this ranking. KA is going into his 4th year in the league and will still only be 24. He's the undisputed #1 receiver on his team and even though he was on track to have an insane 134 receptions when he went down in 2015, there's even more targets to go around in 2016. Whis is back who called his number in the RZ like mad as a rookie. They've upgraded their line and added a field stretcher to the mix; Gates is probably going to get even less targets. Everything seems to point at KA having even more opportunity than what he had last year when he was WR #3 at the time he went down. Look at who is ranked ahead of him. I feel like the argument could be easily made that all these guys have bigger question marks, whether it's QB, health, competition, etc. 3 9 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26.5 (8)4 10 Dez Bryant DAL 27.8 (11) 4 11 Randall Cobb GB 26.0 (12) 4 12 Mike Evans TB 23.0 (14)4 13 T.Y. Hilton IND 26.8 (13)4 14 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28.7 (10)4 15 Brandin Cooks NO 22.9 (15)5 16 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25.6 (19)5 17 Devante Parker MIA 23.6 (17) 5 18 Kevin White CHI 24.2 (18) For me, the 2.5yr age gap and injury history just barely tilts the value toward KA over Alshon who has been dominant when he actually plays, but the rest of them... some combination of age, production, situation, and injury history makes them less valuable than KA in my mind. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted May 18, 2016 Author Share Posted May 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Adso said: To start, love this thread and the conversation on it. This is not a slam, just curious about this placement. That said, I really don't get this ranking. KA is going into his 4th year in the league and will still only be 24. He's the undisputed #1 receiver on his team and even though he was on track to have an insane 134 receptions when he went down in 2015, there's even more targets to go around in 2016. Whis is back who called his number in the RZ like mad as a rookie. They've upgraded their line and added a field stretcher to the mix; Gates is probably going to get even less targets. Everything seems to point at KA having even more opportunity than what he had last year when he was WR #3 at the time he went down. Look at who is ranked ahead of him. I feel like the argument could be easily made that all these guys have bigger question marks, whether it's QB, health, competition, etc. 3 9 Alshon Jeffery CHI 26.5 (8)4 10 Dez Bryant DAL 27.8 (11) 4 11 Randall Cobb GB 26.0 (12) 4 12 Mike Evans TB 23.0 (14)4 13 T.Y. Hilton IND 26.8 (13)4 14 Demaryius Thomas DEN 28.7 (10)4 15 Brandin Cooks NO 22.9 (15)5 16 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 25.6 (19)5 17 Devante Parker MIA 23.6 (17) 5 18 Kevin White CHI 24.2 (18) For me, the 2.5yr age gap and injury history just barely tilts the value toward KA over Alshon who has been dominant when he actually plays, but the rest of them... some combination of age, production, situation, and injury history makes them less valuable than KA in my mind. Allen did have a nice half-season, but he had a lot of things working in his favor: Rivers as his quarterback, an offense that was on pace to lead the league in passing attempts (on pace for 694 att in the games he played), and very little competition for targets (including Gates missing 5 of the 8 games he played). This year, it's likely that they'll have a drop in pass attempts and an increase in weapons to throw it to, and it's not clear how long Rivers has left. For comparison Jeffery had similar stats over half a season last year with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, on an offense that threw the ball only 523 times, and he also had similar per-game stats over 16 games in 2013 (and his 2014 was better than any of Allen's complete seasons, too). So I think Allen is in the right tier. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
georg013 344 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 5 hours ago, ZWK said: Allen did have a nice half-season, but he had a lot of things working in his favor: Rivers as his quarterback, an offense that was on pace to lead the league in passing attempts (on pace for 694 att in the games he played), and very little competition for targets (including Gates missing 5 of the 8 games he played). This year, it's likely that they'll have a drop in pass attempts and an increase in weapons to throw it to, and it's not clear how long Rivers has left. For comparison Jeffery had similar stats over half a season last year with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, on an offense that threw the ball only 523 times, and he also had similar per-game stats over 16 games in 2013 (and his 2014 was better than any of Allen's complete seasons, too). So I think Allen is in the right tier. Isn't thy exactly why OBJ is ranked so highly? His situation was perfect. No mouths to feed, Super Bowl winning QB, no effective run game to boot. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dinsy Ejotuz 12,882 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 (edited) Here are your 17th to 35th ranked QBs, with the established vets removed and split into my own tiers. 1 20 Paxton Lynch DEN 22.6 unr 1 24 Kirk Cousins WAS 28.0 (21) 1 34 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 24.8 (32) 1 35 Blaine Gabbert SF 26.9 (34) These are guys I think have a good chance to be decent long-term starters. 2 21 Colin Kaepernick SF 28.8 (17) 2 25 Robert Griffin III CLE 26.5 (24) 3 17 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 23.8 (15) 3 28 Brock Osweiler HOU 25.8 (33) 3 33 Sam Bradford PHI 28.8 (30) Not really sure what to do with Kaep or Griffin -- they're scheme dependent IMO and it's not clear how many teams are willing to stick with a favorable scheme. Third tier I wouldn't touch. Edited May 18, 2016 by wdcrob Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Just Win Baby 2,576 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 8 hours ago, ZWK said: Allen did have a nice half-season, but he had a lot of things working in his favor: Rivers as his quarterback, an offense that was on pace to lead the league in passing attempts (on pace for 694 att in the games he played), and very little competition for targets (including Gates missing 5 of the 8 games he played). This year, it's likely that they'll have a drop in pass attempts and an increase in weapons to throw it to, and it's not clear how long Rivers has left. For comparison Jeffery had similar stats over half a season last year with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, on an offense that threw the ball only 523 times, and he also had similar per-game stats over 16 games in 2013 (and his 2014 was better than any of Allen's complete seasons, too). So I think Allen is in the right tier. I agree with all of your reasoning other than the implication that Rivers may not have much time remaining. He is under contract for 4 more years, and there is no reason to believe he won't play it out. He has never missed a game in college or the NFL, starting 220 straight combined games, so the risk of durability becoming an issue seems low. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
matttyl 2,689 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 11 hours ago, ZWK said: 1 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 32.8 (2) 1 4 Andrew Luck IND 27.0 (1) Likely splitting hairs here, but why aren't these two flipped? I just traded Rodgers for Luck straight up in a 10 team league, and really thought all I was doing was making Rodgers 6 years younger and putting him in a dome. In Luck's last full season (2014) he threw for 4,761 yards - a mark Rodgers hasn't hit in his 8 "full" seasons. Is durability the concern? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Borden 1,078 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 Why Carr over Goff? I would this for FF reasons Carr should be in front. Better WRs, no star RB, worse defense. I understand Goff is younger and went higher in the draft but it's not like Carr is really old or was a 7th round pick. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Irrelevant 1,736 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 1 hour ago, wdcrob said: Here are your 17th to 35th ranked QBs, with the established vets removed and split into my own tiers. 1 35 Blaine Gabbert SF 26.9 (34) These are guys I think have a good chance to be decent long-term starters. Not to hijack the discussion on ZWK's rankings, but doesn't your model put the heaviest weight on completion and sack percentages? Gabbert's career numbers in both of these measures are beyond atrocious. Admittedly, the former improved last season (albeit just to league-average), but he still shows precious few signs of pocket awareness. What makes you so high on him? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
gabes1919 323 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 20 minutes ago, matttyl said: Likely splitting hairs here, but why aren't these two flipped? I just traded Rodgers for Luck straight up in a 10 team league, and really thought all I was doing was making Rodgers 6 years younger and putting him in a dome. In Luck's last full season (2014) he threw for 4,761 yards - a mark Rodgers hasn't hit in his 8 "full" seasons. Is durability the concern? I agree with you on this one. I think Luck should be above Rodgers based on age alone. Luck plays in an up and coming division and doesn't have some of the potentially elite weapons (or even a decent o-line) that Rodgers has but I think Luck should still be ahead for the long term. His injury was a long time coming due to the bad O-line issues, I don't think it's something we need to worry about long term. Rodgers deserves the 'injury-prone' tag more than Luck does. Also, Bears homer. Rodgers can suck an egg. His best quality is Olivia Munn Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dinsy Ejotuz 12,882 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said: Not to hijack the discussion on ZWK's rankings, but doesn't your model put the heaviest weight on completion and sack percentages? Gabbert's career numbers in both of these measures are beyond atrocious. Admittedly, the former improved last season (albeit just to league-average), but he still shows precious few signs of pocket awareness. What makes you so high on him? I'll confess that a lot of it is intuition with Gabbert -- so take it for whatever you think it's worth. But my thinking goes like this... Unlike other positions QBs can often stick around long enough to get better at some of the underlying skills or abilities that make them successful. Players like Alex Smith or Josh McCown or Rich Gannon. I think that's partly because so much of what makes a QB good is in his head, and partly because by the time other positions are 27/28 they're out of the league if they aren't any good. And unlike Smith, McCown or Gannon -- who were all physically marginal even in their prime -- Gabbert is a ridiculous athlete with great size. He also had the advantage of getting a ton of NFL experience at a very young age. Which I believe helps not just develop him but actually increases his potential ceiling. (Think of it as the difference between filling the container and expanding the size of the container.) Add in what appears to be a great work ethic and an offensive system that might leverage his rushing ability and it wouldn't surprise me to see Gabbert become fairly relevant even in standard 1-QB leagues. Given that he's only 26 right now (a year younger than Russel Wilson), if he hits he could still have a solid run. And despite being back on the fantasy radar, the price is right -- it's still a very low-risk play. Edited May 18, 2016 by wdcrob 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud29 1,417 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 I like Goff, but I'm pretty sure I'd take Bortles over him 10 times out of 10. That being said, I really enjoy reading through these. Keep up the good work. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mingooch 155 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 I second bud29 on taking Bortles over Goff as well. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Just Win Baby 2,576 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 13 hours ago, ZWK said: 4 9 Jared Goff RAM 21.9 unr 4 10 Derek Carr OAK 25.4 (9) 4 11 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27.1 (10) 4 12 Blake Bortles JAX 24.7 (12) 4 13 Tom Brady NE 39.1 (11) 4 14 Carson Wentz PHI 23.7 unr 4 15 Andy Dalton CIN 28.8 (14) 4 16 Carson Palmer ARI 36.7 (13) 5 17 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 23.8 (15) 5 18 Drew Brees NO 37.6 (16) 5 19 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28.1 (18) 5 20 Paxton Lynch DEN 22.6 unr 5 21 Colin Kaepernick SF 28.8 (17) 5 22 Philip Rivers SD 34.7 (19) Comments/questions on this group: Like others, I'd take both Carr and Bortles ahead of Goff. How many seasons do you look forward for these rankings? How many QB1 seasons are you projecting they have remaining? They all seem high to varying degrees IMO. Perhaps it would be useful also to comment on how you ranked Peyton at this time last year and at this time two years ago. I think this is the highest ranking I have seen anywhere for Tyrod. Not disagreeing but interested in your rationale. Rivers at #22 seems low. In the past 8 seasons, he has had just 1 season outside the top 12 QBs (per PFR scoring), and in his previous season (2013) with Whisenhunt as OC, he was QB6. He has never missed a game, so he is not an injury risk. The team has replaced Floyd with Benjamin, replaced TE Green with rookie Henry, and Allen shouldn't typically miss half a season like he did last year. Interested in your thoughts on these, ZWK. As always, I appreciate the time and effort you put into these and appreciate that you share them with the community. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
thriftyrocker 346 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 (edited) Do you guys see Bortles/Carr as a different tier, or just preferable? I wouldn't get too worked about about intra-tier rankings. I can see fading Bortles to the point where he's the same tier as Goff. He put up a phenomenal season. He's got 2 WR set up for the foreseeable. He should continue to pad his value with a few rushing stats. But the stats last year were a perfect storm. The defense just got better, which will lead to less attempts. He's not that efficient (his completion percentage was sub 60 and his ANY/A was below average). I would rather have him than Goff because his situation is better and has established himself, but I can see putting either rookie in that tier, especially if you are heavily factoring in pedigree. Edited May 18, 2016 by thriftyrocker Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FreeBaGeL 8,811 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 I've read in so many threads now about how the Jags defense is sure to be sooooo much better this year. Surely I'm not the only one that thinks these kind of absolute predictions based mostly on a few rookies is fairly absurd? People overreact to the draft like this every year and it almost never works out that way. There have been teams that have added a lot more to improve their defense than the Jags did which not only didn't translate to them getting significantly better, but actually led to them being worse. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
humpback 1,106 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said: I've read in so many threads now about how the Jags defense is sure to be sooooo much better this year. Surely I'm not the only one that thinks these kind of absolute predictions based mostly on a few rookies is fairly absurd? People overreact to the draft like this every year and it almost never works out that way. There have been teams that have added a lot more to improve their defense than the Jags did which not only didn't translate to them getting significantly better, but actually led to them being worse. I agree when it's based only on the draft, but that's not all it is in this case. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mikel2014 134 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, humpback said: I agree when it's based only on the draft, but that's not all it is in this case. Exactly. Between free agency, the draft, and the numerous young players maturing the whole defense should be improved. They literally have made significant improvements everywhere. Safety - Tashaun Gipson Corner - Jalen Ramsey, Prince Amukamara LBs - Myles Jack DT - Malik Jackson DE - Dante Fowler, Yannick Ngakoue 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FreeBaGeL 8,811 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 (edited) It's mostly the draft and young unproven guys, many of whom are much more likely to never amount to anything than to be Von Miller. Even beyond that, what I'm talking about is not limited to just the draft. I'm not sure how many times we have to get slapped in the face with the knowledge that great defenses generally come from units being held together for a while and not just a bunch of random guys slapped together, but it appears we're due for a few more before we get the point. They'll probably improve some this year just because statistically there's really nowhere to go but up, but I think they're about 10x more likely to end up in the ~15-20 range than the top 5 range like some people seem to be expecting. There's a reason that the fantasy community is generally a year behind finding the good defenses. The majority of the time we predict a team making a big jump they end up being pretty bad. Last year it was Buffalo. Meanwhile, Denver was sitting down there in a jumble with Miami and Detroit. Whoops. Regardless, it may happen, but counting on it in any kind of meaningful way when ranking the Jags' offensive players is way over the top. There's a small chance this defense will turn out great or more than marginally improved, but it's small. It's a crapshoot with defenses and we're wrong about them the majority of the time, which is why defenses get drafted so late in fantasy drafts. I don't know why someone would choose to let that crapshoot affect more than just picking a defense because you have to start one. Think about that for a second. Every time a thread comes up about when to draft a defense the first thing we talk about is how it's better to pick them late because they're so hard to predict. Yet here we are, taking that thing that's hard to predict and applying it to our picks in the first 5 rounds. That seems like a really bad and unreliable variable to give any real weight when talking about picks that valuable. It makes no sense to say "I won't rank a defense high because they're too hard to predict" and then say "I'm going to change my ranking of this guy because I am predicting how his defense will turn out". Edited May 18, 2016 by FreeBaGeL Quote Link to post Share on other sites
humpback 1,106 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 24 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said: It's mostly the draft and young unproven guys, many of whom are much more likely to never amount to anything than to be Von Miller. Even beyond that, what I'm talking about is not limited to just the draft. I'm not sure how many times we have to get slapped in the face with the knowledge that great defenses generally come from units being held together for a while and not just a bunch of random guys slapped together, but it appears we're due for a few more before we get the point. They'll probably improve some this year just because statistically there's really nowhere to go but up, but I think they're about 10x more likely to end up in the ~15-20 range than the top 5 range like some people seem to be expecting. There's a reason that the fantasy community is generally a year behind finding the good defenses. The majority of the time we predict a team making a big jump they end up being pretty bad. Last year it was Buffalo. Meanwhile, Denver was sitting down there in a jumble with Miami and Detroit. Whoops. Regardless, it may happen, but counting on it in any kind of meaningful way when ranking the Jags' offensive players is way over the top. There's a small chance this defense will turn out great or more than marginally improved, but it's small. It's a crapshoot with defenses and we're wrong about them the majority of the time, which is why defenses get drafted so late in fantasy drafts. I don't know why someone would choose to let that crapshoot affect more than just picking a defense because you have to start one. Think about that for a second. Every time a thread comes up about when to draft a defense the first thing we talk about is how it's better to pick them late because they're so hard to predict. Yet here we are, taking that thing that's hard to predict and applying it to our picks in the first 5 rounds. That seems like a really bad and unreliable variable to give any real weight when talking about picks that valuable. It makes no sense to say "I won't rank a defense high because they're too hard to predict" and then say "I'm going to change my ranking of this guy because I am predicting how his defense will turn out". It looks like you were responding to a post about Bortles, where one of the things he said was "the defense just got better" so it may lead to fewer attempts. It seems to be a ginormous leap between that simple statement and this tangent. Also, it doesn't really matter if we're a year behind on defenses since this is a dynasty thread. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FreeBaGeL 8,811 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 (edited) 7 minutes ago, humpback said: It looks like you were responding to a post about Bortles, where one of the things he said was "the defense just got better" so it may lead to fewer attempts. It seems to be a ginormous leap between that simple statement and this tangent. Also, it doesn't really matter if we're a year behind on defenses since this is a dynasty thread. Part of it is that it's been going around everywhere, not just in that one statement. I'm probably applying more to it than just that statement. Another part of it is that there have been other statements made in the string of responses since then. "They have literally made significant improvements everywhere". Regardless, I think it applies to the original statement too. I think the odds are fairly low that the defensive changes will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts. A more balanced attack? Maybe, if they can swing it. But as far as predicting a defense making substantial enough improvements to greatly impact a QB's passing attempts? We have an utterly terrible track record of predicting that. As to the last point, I think you mis-interpretted or perhaps I poorly worded what I meant. I didn't mean we're a year behind as in we rank them highly a year before they actually turn good. I meant we're a year behind in that we generally only know a defense is good after it's actually shown that it's good on the field. We are utterly horrible at finding the good defense before they actually play well. Every year there are a few defenses that do turn it around and improve. Unfortunately they're rarely the ones that everyone thought they were going to be headed into the season. Edited May 18, 2016 by FreeBaGeL Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Arodin 3,083 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said: I've read in so many threads now about how the Jags defense is sure to be sooooo much better this year. Surely I'm not the only one that thinks these kind of absolute predictions based mostly on a few rookies is fairly absurd? People overreact to the draft like this every year and it almost never works out that way. There have been teams that have added a lot more to improve their defense than the Jags did which not only didn't translate to them getting significantly better, but actually led to them being worse. Not only that, but a lot of the people who are talking of the Jax defense are running down the Giants' defense for too many high-priced additions.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mikel2014 134 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 41 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said: Part of it is that it's been going around everywhere, not just in that one statement. I'm probably applying more to it than just that statement. Another part of it is that there have been other statements made in the string of responses since then. "They have literally made significant improvements everywhere". Regardless, I think it applies to the original statement too. I think the odds are fairly low that the defensive changes will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts. A more balanced attack? Maybe, if they can swing it. But as far as predicting a defense making substantial enough improvements to greatly impact a QB's passing attempts? We have an utterly terrible track record of predicting that. As to the last point, I think you mis-interpretted or perhaps I poorly worded what I meant. I didn't mean we're a year behind as in we rank them highly a year before they actually turn good. I meant we're a year behind in that we generally only know a defense is good after it's actually shown that it's good on the field. We are utterly horrible at finding the good defense before they actually play well. Every year there are a few defenses that do turn it around and improve. Unfortunately they're rarely the ones that everyone thought they were going to be headed into the season. You included my comment in there, but I'm not sure what there is to disagree with about it. I agree that we shouldn't alter dynasty rankings based off of the defense. My comment was responding to the portion of your post where you said, "absolute predictions based mostly on a few rookies is fairly absurd? People overreact to the draft..." My point is that there is a much larger picture in Jacksonville than this year's draft. It involves numerous quality improvements beyond the draft. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
thriftyrocker 346 Posted May 18, 2016 Share Posted May 18, 2016 1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said: Regardless, I think it applies to the original statement too. I think the odds are fairly low that the defensive changes will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts. A more balanced attack? Maybe, if they can swing it. But as far as predicting a defense making substantial enough improvements to greatly impact a QB's passing attempts? We have an utterly terrible track record of predicting that. I made the original comment. I agree it is not as simple as my statement. Defense is part of the picture. If the defense doesn't get substantially better, there is a similar catch-22 for Bortles' negatives from 2015; Jax can't continue to be a come from behind team before they start pointing figures at the QB and ask why are they always coming from behind and still below 500. Bortles' 600 attempts is not a huge number, really. The stats are shaped also due to scenario, slack defenses in the 4Q. Certainly Bortles could become a better QB and make the team more competitive just based on him, but I think that is the least likely of the scenarios. A lot of NFL QBs attempts go down as their career progresses because the teams decide that's a better way to win (Stafford, Cutler, etc., maybe could include Romo). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
humpback 1,106 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 (edited) 4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said: Part of it is that it's been going around everywhere, not just in that one statement. I'm probably applying more to it than just that statement. Another part of it is that there have been other statements made in the string of responses since then. "They have literally made significant improvements everywhere". Regardless, I think it applies to the original statement too. I think the odds are fairly low that the defensive changes will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts. A more balanced attack? Maybe, if they can swing it. But as far as predicting a defense making substantial enough improvements to greatly impact a QB's passing attempts? We have an utterly terrible track record of predicting that. As to the last point, I think you mis-interpretted or perhaps I poorly worded what I meant. I didn't mean we're a year behind as in we rank them highly a year before they actually turn good. I meant we're a year behind in that we generally only know a defense is good after it's actually shown that it's good on the field. We are utterly horrible at finding the good defense before they actually play well. Every year there are a few defenses that do turn it around and improve. Unfortunately they're rarely the ones that everyone thought they were going to be headed into the season. Okay, just responding to what was written in here, can't comment on what was said in other threads. I agree that the odds are fairly low that it will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts, but then again no one claimed that it would. The poster simply listed it as one of several factors to consider, some positive and some negative. I also agree that defenses are often tough to predict in advance, but I'm fairly confident that the Jags will be improved- there is essentially no where to go but up for starters, plus they have added a lot of talent to that side of the ball (and it wasn't all in the draft). Again, I'm not saying they are a top 5 defense or that you should drop Bortles down 10 spots in your rankings, but it could be something to keep in mind. Edited May 19, 2016 by humpback 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,969 Posted May 19, 2016 Author Share Posted May 19, 2016 @Borden@bud29@Mingooch@Just Win Baby Goff: I tend to be high on highly drafted rookie QBs. A year ago I had Mariota & Winston ranked 5 & 6 right after their draft. QB fantasy value is all about upside - elite QBs (like P Manning, Brady, Brees) are worth way way more over their career than pretty good QBs (like E Manning, Hasselbeck, Schaub). And elite QBs usually show something early in their career (often very early) - 23-year-old Peyton Manning was the #3 fantasy QB (and #2 in ANY/A) in his second NFL season. Carr & Bortles have shown some promise but I'm not blown away with them. Some stats like what they did last year and some stats don't (e.g., Carr ranked 12th in DYAR last year but 26th in QBR; Bortles was the #3 fantasy QB but was 25th in DYAR & 30th in QBR). Plus, I like Goff as a prospect. @matttyl Luck vs. Rodgers is a close call; I've flip-flopped on them over the past few months. The concern about Luck is that he hasn't had an all-pro type season yet; even in 2014 the advanced stats typically had him in the QB 5-10 range. Going by reputation he belongs at or near the top, but there is some cause for concern because his production/efficiency hasn't quite been at that level in any of his first 4 seasons. For owners who have a 3-year window I think Rodgers is clearly the right play; I have a longer window so I think it's a close call. 12 hours ago, Just Win Baby said: Comments/questions on this group: Like others, I'd take both Carr and Bortles ahead of Goff. How many seasons do you look forward for these rankings? How many QB1 seasons are you projecting they have remaining? They all seem high to varying degrees IMO. Perhaps it would be useful also to comment on how you ranked Peyton at this time last year and at this time two years ago. I think this is the highest ranking I have seen anywhere for Tyrod. Not disagreeing but interested in your rationale. Rivers at #22 seems low. In the past 8 seasons, he has had just 1 season outside the top 12 QBs (per PFR scoring), and in his previous season (2013) with Whisenhunt as OC, he was QB6. He has never missed a game, so he is not an injury risk. The team has replaced Floyd with Benjamin, replaced TE Green with rookie Henry, and Allen shouldn't typically miss half a season like he did last year. Interested in your thoughts on these, ZWK. As always, I appreciate the time and effort you put into these and appreciate that you share them with the community. 2. Roughly, I try to include a player's entire future career with a 5-10% discount rate per year. It's unclear to me which players in particular you're questioning here, or which direction you think I'm erring in for how I value older QBs vs. younger QBs. I had Peyton as QB14 a year ago and QB11 two years ago. 3. Tyrod gets a big bonus from running, and he rated around QB10 as a passer last year according to various advanced efficiency stats. He was also a top 12 fantasy QB in ppg in many scoring systems. Might have been a fluke and he'll regress, but he also has upside well above what he did in his first year as a starter in a run-heavy offense. 4. Rivers turns 35 this year and he has been roughly a baseline level QB over the past 4 years (with around 30 VBD accumulated, most of it in 2013). He definitely has upside above what he's been doing lately (he was in contention for best QB in the NFL from 2008-2010) but the odds aren't great. And it's unclear how widespread this QB fountain of youth is. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FUBAR 3,203 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 Really enjoy the discussion these rankings bring and thank you for putting these out there. We'll disagree on a few, I'd put Palmer below Brees and think you have fitz and Flacco swapped but your logic is understandable. The only thing I don't like is skipping tier 2. Clearly you want to show the drop but imo you could just say there's a big drop or maybe include dynasty value points for each player? MM/Winston/Ben seems like an odd tier, but presumably your point is simply that if you're looking for points now take Ben and their values are close. I disagree with the latter. There's no league I'm in where I could trade Ben for either of those players. They're tier 2 in dynasty just behind the big 4. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sabertooth 5,923 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 17 hours ago, thriftyrocker said: Do you guys see Bortles/Carr as a different tier, or just preferable? I wouldn't get too worked about about intra-tier rankings. I can see fading Bortles to the point where he's the same tier as Goff. He put up a phenomenal season. He's got 2 WR set up for the foreseeable. He should continue to pad his value with a few rushing stats. But the stats last year were a perfect storm. The defense just got better, which will lead to less attempts. He's not that efficient (his completion percentage was sub 60 and his ANY/A was below average). I would rather have him than Goff because his situation is better and has established himself, but I can see putting either rookie in that tier, especially if you are heavily factoring in pedigree. I can see your point. But for me personally, we've seen Bortles do it. Goff could be an outright bust. Some guys just bust, and I think Bortles has shown that he is not a bust. So his floor is automatically higher than Goff. And if you want to talk about upside, well he finished QB4 last season behind only Cam, Tom, and Russell. His ceiling is most likely higher than Goff as well. I'm not too worried about the defense. Heck, shorter fields mean more scores. Here's another interesting fact about Bortles, Only two players in NFL history have more Passing TDs or Passing Yards in a season than Bortles by age 24. He had the third best season ever for a kid that young. Matt Stafford and Dan Marino best him. That's a pretty historic start to his career. Personally he's my favorite young prospect and he's right behind Cam, Luck and Rodgers in my overall rankings. Same tier as Wilson, Winston, and Carr. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FUBAR 3,203 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 17 minutes ago, Sabertooth said: I can see your point. But for me personally, we've seen Bortles do it. Goff could be an outright bust. Some guys just bust, and I think Bortles has shown that he is not a bust. So his floor is automatically higher than Goff. And if you want to talk about upside, well he finished QB4 last season behind only Cam, Tom, and Russell. His ceiling is most likely higher than Goff as well. I'm not too worried about the defense. Heck, shorter fields mean more scores. Here's another interesting fact about Bortles, Only two players in NFL history have more Passing TDs or Passing Yards in a season than Bortles by age 24. He had the third best season ever for a kid that young. Matt Stafford and Dan Marino best him. That's a pretty historic start to his career. Personally he's my favorite young prospect and he's right behind Cam, Luck and Rodgers in my overall rankings. Same tier as Wilson, Winston, and Carr. Bortles, MM, and Winston certainly. The others are debatable. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
matttyl 2,689 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 5 hours ago, ZWK said: @matttyl Luck vs. Rodgers is a close call; I've flip-flopped on them over the past few months. The concern about Luck is that he hasn't had an all-pro type season yet; even in 2014 the advanced stats typically had him in the QB 5-10 range. Going by reputation he belongs at or near the top, but there is some cause for concern because his production/efficiency hasn't quite been at that level in any of his first 4 seasons. For owners who have a 3-year window I think Rodgers is clearly the right play; I have a longer window so I think it's a close call. Thanks for your answers, and I agree with much of what you say. Like I said above, I traded Rodgers for Luck straight up about 2 weeks ago. I feel all I did was make Rodgers 6 years younger and put him in a dome. I'm in win now mode for sure, but my team is also very young (#1 pick this year, Cooper and Watkins, Allen and K White behind them). If I ever "lose" on a dynasty trade, I at least get the younger players out of the deal in the hopes of salvaging some trade value down the line. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Octopus 15,667 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 15 hours ago, thriftyrocker said: I made the original comment. I agree it is not as simple as my statement. Defense is part of the picture. If the defense doesn't get substantially better, there is a similar catch-22 for Bortles' negatives from 2015; Jax can't continue to be a come from behind team before they start pointing figures at the QB and ask why are they always coming from behind and still below 500. Bortles' 600 attempts is not a huge number, really. The stats are shaped also due to scenario, slack defenses in the 4Q. Certainly Bortles could become a better QB and make the team more competitive just based on him, but I think that is the least likely of the scenarios. A lot of NFL QBs attempts go down as their career progresses because the teams decide that's a better way to win (Stafford, Cutler, etc., maybe could include Romo). the "fact" that Bortles padded his stats significantly in the 4Q has been debunked on this board before though I beleive. I'm not saying there's no validity to it at all, but any effect a better defense has on the JAX passing game could be countered by Bortles progression as a young QB and the offense gelling as they grow together. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Just Win Baby 2,576 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 20 hours ago, Just Win Baby said: How many seasons do you look forward for these rankings? How many QB1 seasons are you projecting they have remaining? They all seem high to varying degrees IMO. Perhaps it would be useful also to comment on how you ranked Peyton at this time last year and at this time two years ago. 6 hours ago, ZWK said: 2. Roughly, I try to include a player's entire future career with a 5-10% discount rate per year. It's unclear to me which players in particular you're questioning here, or which direction you think I'm erring in for how I value older QBs vs. younger QBs. I had Peyton as QB14 a year ago and QB11 two years ago. Sorry, I edited my post and inadvertently left it unclear. I was thinking about the rankings for Brady, Brees, and Palmer. In retrospect, do you think it was appropriate to have Peyton at QB14 last year? At QB11 two years ago? The cliff came fast for him, just as I expect it will for these other guys, but particularly Brady, plus Brady is facing a 4 game suspension to open his most valuable season remaining. So, for example, how many QB1 seasons are you projecting for Brady at this point? Do you think more along the lines of ppg than total points, which can mitigate the suspension? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FreeBaGeL 8,811 Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 3 hours ago, matttyl said: Thanks for your answers, and I agree with much of what you say. Like I said above, I traded Rodgers for Luck straight up about 2 weeks ago. I feel all I did was make Rodgers 6 years younger and put him in a dome. I'm in win now mode for sure, but my team is also very young (#1 pick this year, Cooper and Watkins, Allen and K White behind them). If I ever "lose" on a dynasty trade, I at least get the younger players out of the deal in the hopes of salvaging some trade value down the line. I realize that Andrew Luck is the prodigal son and all, but there are risks to him beyond just his health. Namely, that even when he was healthy last year he struggled a fair amount. There is a non-negligible chance that his career path more closely resembles Matt Stafford's than Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning. I'm not saying it's likely or anything, but it's certainly there. His career thus far has been the perfect fantasy storm of poor defense and running game leading to lots of passing attempts, again resembling when Matt Stafford was considered a top 3 fantasy QB. I get the eye test and all that but perception is not necessarily reality. He now has 1 strong fantasy season in 4 tries and that was the season where Indy led the NFL in pass attempts. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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