ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated Oct 2020)

[maf005 97]

Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

8 46 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (31)

Hey ZWK, good stuff but I'd like to make a case for DGB.

In his rookie season, he started out slow.

Over the first 11 games TEN WR Dorial Green-Beckham produced:

- 16 receptions

- 243 yards

- 2 TDs

Average per game:

- 1,45 receptions per game

- 22,09 yards per game

- ,18TDs per game

Over the final 5 games he produced:

- 16 receptions

- 306 yards

- 1 TD

Average per game

- 3,2 receptions per game

- 61.2 yards per game

- .20 TDs per game

He showed a significant increase in production over the final month of his rookie season and I believe the Titans will utilize his size/strength/frame more in the red-zone in 2016.

He should be ranked higher than the 46th best dynasty WR IMHO.

I'd be curious to know DGB's per snap or per target numbers.

Rotowire will give you both target and snap counts. 2016 DGB had 67 targets in 580 snaps.

He had a lot of garbage games early where he was on the field but not targeted. And obviously his catch rate is bad.

Still his DVOA is mediocre (as in "not bad enough to be worried about", better than Funchess/Agholor).

Just to take the other side of the DGB debate..

The biggest knock on him was that he was very unpolished in terms of WR skills, lacked football iq, wasn't a sudden athlete, and had questionable off field decision making.

He seems to have overcome the off field issues but as far as being a WR, he doesn't seem to have made much progress.

Although Mariota has improved his team situation greatly, it's still Tennessee (sorry titans fans). Dynasty owners still have that ever-important potential to cling on to though

[thriftyrocker 347]

DGB's ADP right now is 36.7 overall. Given ZWK's comments I wouldn't take his really low ranking as a "sell at all costs" ranking but it reads like that compared to DGB's ADP.

I think it's interesting to compare to Funchess. Analytically they are not that much different. NFL draft stock is 1 pick apart, DGB had one more reception last year, Funchess had one more TD, DGB had a lot more yards (and obviously yards per reception). Funchess' ranking is right at his ADP (ADP WR39, ZWK ranking WR40). But DGB is elevated much higher by the community.

I don't think DBG's ADP advantage is at all due to his play. It's more due to his reputation out of HS combined with draftnik evaluations. Few outside of Xue would argue over Funchess not being higher.

[SWC 15,258]

zwk it is a rule that if you have three letters names you have to write like this and end things by taking them to the bank otherwise nice list as always brohan

[ZWK 1,969]

Edit: The Jags had 35 passing TDs vs. 5 rushing TDs this year. That's a huge, huge outlier and is guaranteed to regress.

I like Bortles, and I don't think the "garbage time" stats are particularly meaningful to determining his dynasty value... but this is a compelling fact to remember, at least in the near term.

I actually wrote about garbage time earlier this year with respect to DeAndre Hopkins. My finding at the time: if we defined "garbage time" as "trailing by 14+ points", Hopkins led the league in "garbage time" receiving yards by a substantial margin.

The problem? DeAndre Hopkins also ranked 9th in the NFL in receiving yards *OUTSIDE* of garbage time. DeAndre Hopkins had a crap-ton of yards, and so he was at or near the top of the leaderboard in every single split. And Houston, in particular, was terrible, so Hopkins spent a much higher percentage of his time on the field trailing big than did, say, Antonio Brown. Hopkins had more than three times as many garbage-time snaps as the average NFL receiver at that point of the year.

34.3% of Hopkins' yards came in "garbage time", (defined, again, as trailing by 14+ points). 33.0% of Houston's total offensive snaps came in garbage time. 37.6% of Houston's pass attempts came in garbage time. 41.0% of Houston's passing yards came in garbage time. Hopkins averaged 1.52 yards per offensive snap when the team was down by 14+ points, and 1.44 yards per offensive snap when the team was not; over a full season, that would work out to a difference of about 80 yards, give or take.

So Hopkins' production during garbage time wasn't at all disproportionate to what you'd expect given his production outside of garbage time and the amount of time he spent in garbage time. And I strongly suspect that if I ran a similar analysis for Blake Bortles, I'd return a similar result. Which is why I hate holding "garbage time" against a player; usually it's done in a half-baked way that doesn't at all measure whether the player's production was at all out of line with what we should have expected.

(As an aside: Andrew Luck's production without question *WAS* disproportionately concentrated during garbage time this year. But I have no reason to believe that that's anything other than random numbers behaving randomly over a small sample; I've yet to see any studies showing any predictive value whatsoever to information like this.)

See Stafford. Like Bortes played with a great wr, had a ton of garbage time stats and was hyped up to the moon. When the garbage went away his stats plummeted

Stafford's 2011 and Bortles's 2015 are a pretty fair comparison. The both had a ton of pass attempts, a ton of passing TDs, and an averageish yards per attempt. Jacksonville's offense might have seemed less pass-heavy than Detroit's 2011 (when Stafford led the NFL in attempts), but if you count passing plays (passes + sacks + scrambles) it's up there. Although Stafford after 2011 was actually a pretty promising prospect, it's just that 2011 continues to be his career high in almost every passing stat (including efficiency stats as well as volume stats). Bortles's 2015 was not as good in terms of the raw numbers, but he still has some upside beyond what Stafford has become given that he's young & the third overall pick.

Here is a first pass at offseason WR rankings, posted without commentary. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev shows ranking on 8/26/15.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev

8 46 Dorial Green-Beckham TEN 23.4 (31)

Hey ZWK, good stuff but I'd like to make a case for DGB.

In his rookie season, he started out slow.

Over the first 11 games TEN WR Dorial Green-Beckham produced:

- 16 receptions

- 243 yards

- 2 TDs

Average per game:

- 1,45 receptions per game

- 22,09 yards per game

- ,18TDs per game

Over the final 5 games he produced:

- 16 receptions

- 306 yards

- 1 TD

Average per game

- 3,2 receptions per game

- 61.2 yards per game

- .20 TDs per game

He showed a significant increase in production over the final month of his rookie season and I believe the Titans will utilize his size/strength/frame more in the red-zone in 2016.

He should be ranked higher than the 46th best dynasty WR IMHO.

I've already been convinced that I had DGB too low. I moved him up to WR41 (right behind Funchess) in my WR update which I tacked to the end of my post with RB rankings.

[ZWK 1,969]

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16 for the then-top-61, and from 1/11/16 for the rest.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    23.8    (1)
2    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    24.2    (4)
2    3    Sammy Watkins    BUF    23.2    (5)
2    4    Julio Jones    ATL    27.6    (2)
2    5    Antonio Brown    PIT    28.1    (3)
3    6    Allen Robinson    JAX    23.0    (7)
3    7    Amari Cooper    OAK    22.2    (9)
3    8    A.J. Green    CIN    28.1    (6)
3    9    Alshon Jeffery    CHI    26.5    (8)
4    10    Dez Bryant    DAL    27.8    (11)
4    11    Randall Cobb    GB    26.0    (12)
4    12    Mike Evans    TB    23.0    (14)
4    13    T.Y. Hilton    IND    26.8    (13)
4    14    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    28.7    (10)
4    15    Brandin Cooks    NO    22.9    (15)
5    16    Kelvin Benjamin    CAR    25.6    (19)
5    17    Devante Parker    MIA    23.6    (17)
5    18    Kevin White    CHI    24.2    (18)
5    19    Keenan Allen    SD    24.3    (16)
5    20    Corey Coleman    CLE    22.2    unr
5    21    Josh Doctson    WAS    23.7    unr
6    22    Julian Edelman    NE    30.3    (22)
6    23    Jeremy Maclin    KC    28.3    (23)
6    24    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    21.2    unr
6    25    Jarvis Landry    MIA    23.8    (21)
6    26    Jordy Nelson    GB    31.3    (25)
6    27    Brandon Marshall    NYJ    32.4    (24)
6    28    Donte Moncrief    IND    23.1    (28)
6    29    Jordan Matthews    PHI    24.1    (30)
7    30    Martavis Bryant    PIT    24.7    (20)
7    31    Josh Gordon    CLE    25.4    (29)
7    32    Golden Tate    DET    28.1    (31)
7    33    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    33.0    (26)
7    34    Doug Baldwin    SEA    28.9    (32)
7    35    Leonte Carroo    MIA    22.6    unr
7    36    Eric Decker    NYJ    29.5    (34)
7    37    Allen Hurns    JAX    24.8    (33)
7    38    John Brown    ARI    26.4    (35)
7    39    Michael Floyd    ARI    26.8    (44)
7    40    Phillip Dorsett    IND    23.7    (38)
7    41    William Fuller    HOU    22.4    unr
7    42    Tyler Lockett    SEA    23.9    (37)
7    43    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    29.4    (43)
7    44    DeSean Jackson    WAS    29.7    (36)
7    45    Breshad Perriman    BAL    23.0    (42)
7    46    Michael Thomas    NO    23.5?    unr
7    47    Sterling Shepard    NYG    23.5    unr
7    48    Dorial Green-Beckham    TEN    23.4    (41)
7    49    Devin Funchess    CAR    22.3    (40)
8    50    Tyler Boyd    CIN    22.8    unr
8    51    Davante Adams    GB    23.7    (39)
8    52    Nelson Agholor    PHI    23.3    (45)
8    53    Michael Crabtree    OAK    29.0    (46)
8    54    Travis Benjamin    SD    26.7    (52)
8    55    Stefon Diggs    MIN    22.8    (48)
8    56    Willie Snead    NO    23.9    (49)
8    57    Marvin Jones    DET    26.5    (79)
8    58    Kendall Wright    TEN    26.8    (51)
8    59    Tavon Austin    RAM    25.5    (47)
8    60    Torrey Smith    SF    27.6    (53)
8    61    Devin Smith    NYJ    24.5    (54)
9    62    Braxton Miller    HOU    23.8    unr
9    63    Malcolm Mitchell    NE    24.1    unr
9    64    Ty Montgomery    GB    23.6    (57)
9    65    Sammie Coates    PIT    23.4    (58)
9    66    Pierre Garcon    WAS    30.1    (55)
9    67    Ted Ginn    CAR    31.4    (56)
9    68    Jermaine Kearse    SEA    26.6    (60)
9    69    Chris Hogan    NE    27.9    unr
9    70    Kenny Britt    RAM    27.9    (61)
10    71    Markus Wheaton    PIT    25.6    (61)
10    72    Jaelen Strong    HOU    22.6    (59)
10    73    Mike Wallace    BAL    30.1    (98)
10    74    DeAndre Smelter    SF    24.7    (87)
10    75    Justin Blackmon    JAX    26.6    (62)
10    76    Kamar Aiken    BAL    27.3    (65)
10    77    Steve Smith    BAL    37.4    (66)
10    78    Danny Amendola    NE    30.8    (68)
10    79    Marqise Lee    JAX    24.8    (69)
10    80    Cody Latimer    DEN    23.9    (70)
10    81    Jeff Janis    GB    25.2    (71)
10    82    Chris Conley    KC    23.9    (73)
10    83    Victor Cruz    NYG    29.8    (78)
11    84    Trevor Davis    GB    23.2    unr
11    85    Moritz Boehringer    MIN    22.9    unr
11    86    Rishard Matthews    TEN    26.9    (82)
11    87    Vincent Jackson    TB    33.6    (67)
11    88    Jared Abbrederis    GB    25.7    (74)
11    89    Paul Richardson    SEA    24.4    (76)
11    90    Rueben Randle    PHI    25.3    (60)
11    91    Steve Johnson    SD    30.1    (75)
11    92    Terrance Williams    DAL    27.0    (77)
11    93    Albert Wilson    KC    24.1    (80)
11    94    Brian Quick    RAM    27.2    (83)
11    95    Corey Brown    CAR    24.7    (91)
12    96    Marquess Wilson    CHI    24.0    (84)
12    97    Brandon Coleman    NO    24.2    (86)
12    98    Charles Johnson    MIN    27.5    (85)
12    99    Anquan Boldin    FA    35.9    (88)
12    100    Chris Moore    BAL    23.2    unr
12    101    Quinton Patton    SF    26.1    (99)
12    102    Mike Thomas    RAM    22.0    unr
12    103    D.J. Foster    NE    22ish    unr
12    104    Cordarrelle Patterson    MIN    25.5    (89)
12    105    Robert Woods    BUF    24.4    (92)
12    106    Rashard Higgins    CLE    21.9    unr
12    107    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    27.0    unr
13    108    Cecil Shorts    HOU    28.7    (90)
13    109    Eddie Royal    CHI    30.3    (94)
13    110    James Jones    FA    32.4    (81)
13    111    Rod Streater    KC    28.6    unr
13    112    Justin Hunter    TEN    25.3    (95)
13    113    Kenny Stills    MIA    24.4    (96)
13    114    Terrelle Pryor    CLE    27.2    (100)
13    115    Devin Lucien    NE    23.2    unr
13    116    Ricardo Louis    CLE    22.4    unr
13    117    Pharoh Cooper    RAM    21.5    unr
13    118    Demarcus Robinson    KC    22ish    unr
13    119    Tajae Sharpe    TEN    21.7    unr
13    120    Nate Washington    NE    33.0    unr
13    121    Josh Huff    PHI    24.9    (101)
13    122    Jordan Payton    CLE    23.0    unr
13    123    Hakeem Nicks    FA    28.6    (102)
13    124    Brandon LaFell    CIN    29.8    (63)
13    125    Stedman Bailey    RAM    25.8    (97)
13    126    Danario Alexander    FA    28.0    unr

I won't post much commentary. I did do a blind re-rank of the top players since my last WR post, in order to help de-anchor myself on my old rankings. The main change was to move up the younger WRs near the top of the rankings, which is something that other folks were arguing for.

I have said a lot more about the rookies in my other thread, most recently here and also in posts like these.

[Biabreakable 5,097]

Nice list Z.

I wish I understood your tiering method a bit better. It is clear to me what players are in each tier, it just isn't clear to me how much separates each tier. I know I have asked about this a couple times before (I remember that I forgot I already asked before at least once ) .

Is the difference between tier 3 and tier 4 the same as the difference between tier 7 and tier 8?

[ZWK 1,969]

6 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Nice list Z.

I wish I understood your tiering method a bit better. It is clear to me what players are in each tier, it just isn't clear to me how much separates each tier. I know I have asked about this a couple times before (I remember that I forgot I already asked before at least once ) .

Is the difference between tier 3 and tier 4 the same as the difference between tier 7 and tier 8?

A tier break doesn't have a precise meaning. Basically, if there's a tier break between 2 players it means that even though they are right next to each other in the rankings, there is still a gap between them in terms of how much I value them. DGB vs. Devin Funchess is a closer call than Funchess vs. Tyler Boyd.

[EBF 1,924]

2 hours ago, ZWK said:

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16 for the then-top-61, and from 1/11/16 for the rest.

9    64    Ty Montgomery    GB    23.6    (57)
10    74    DeAndre Smelter    SF    24.7    (87)
11    85    Moritz Boehringer    MIN    22.9    unr

Three guys I would be looking at in a startup, especially the latter two. Lots of upside at a low cost. Can't wait to see if Smelter is legit.

 

Montgomery is a different style of WR with a lower ceiling, but that offense could be nice.

 

You are really bullish on Carroo. I see potential there, but not enough to put him that high yet.

[fruity pebbles 3,253]

Carroo looks like an outlier to me and i like the guy a lot.

[bostonfred 30,059]

12 hours ago, ZWK said:

5    17    Devante Parker    MIA    23.6    (17)
6    25    Jarvis Landry    MIA    23.8    (21)
7    35    Leonte Carroo    MIA    22.6    unr

Where do you have tannehill ranked? 

[gianmarco 28,006]

Edelman looks so completely out of place on that list at WR#22.

--30 years old

--Coming off a 2nd surgery for his broken foot this offseason

--Almost entirely situational dependent and is paired with a 39 yo Brady who is about to fall off a very steep cliff

--Has one career 1000 yd season (1056) and that was in 2013 (out of 7 seasons).  Career high of 7 TDs.

 

There is no way I can see anyone considering this guy over the likes of Treadwell, Landry, Matthews just to name a few.  Ranking a guy that high that is old, coming off injury, and no pedigree that is productive almost entirely due to his situation is a recipe for disaster, IMO.

 

ETA--Especially in a 0.5 ppr setting.  Receptions are really the only thing he's got going for him.

Edited May 16, 2016 by gianmarco

[Liquid Courage 8]

Are folks still high on  Kelvin Benjamin?  I have big concerns with him - especially with the stories from last year of him showing up at OTA and Camp overweight.  

Have him on my dynasty team and have been entertaining thoughts of trying to trade him.  But if he is still top 20 and WR1, then I'll hold on to him. 

[ZWK 1,969]

14 hours ago, EBF said:

You are really bullish on Carroo. I see potential there, but not enough to put him that high yet.

 

5 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Carroo looks like an outlier to me and i like the guy a lot.

 

5 hours ago, bostonfred said:

17 hours ago, ZWK said:

5    17    Devante Parker    MIA    23.6    (17)
6    25    Jarvis Landry    MIA    23.8    (21)
7    35    Leonte Carroo    MIA    22.6    unr

Where do you have tannehill ranked? 

Tier 7 is relatively tightly packed - for example, I don't see that big a difference between Golden Tate (WR32) and Devin Funchess (WR49). There is a relatively steep dropoff in value from WR1 to WR30, and then things flatten out a lot.

Carroo at WR35 is near the top of that tier, but far ahead of the rest of it. I'm trusting my numbers & gut on Carroo in putting him near the top of that tier. That is based on liking his upside, rather than on thinking that he's a safe bet to do well.

I'm not very high on Tannehill - I have him at QB19. But I'm not betting that all three of his receivers are going to be good. All three of them are young and relatively high upside. It only takes one hit from the Parker/Landry/Carroo trio (at the AJ Green / Wes Welker level) for the group to hit (or exceeded) value. And if more than one of them hits, they might wind up on different teams in a few years rather than stealing targets from each other.

 

1 hour ago, gianmarco said:

Edelman looks so completely out of place on that list at WR#22.

--30 years old

--Coming off a 2nd surgery for his broken foot this offseason

--Almost entirely situational dependent and is paired with a 39 yo Brady who is about to fall off a very steep cliff

--Has one career 1000 yd season (1056) and that was in 2013 (out of 7 seasons).  Career high of 7 TDs.

 

There is no way I can see anyone considering this guy over the likes of Treadwell, Landry, Matthews just to name a few.  Ranking a guy that high that is old, coming off injury, and no pedigree that is productive almost entirely due to his situation is a recipe for disaster, IMO.

 

ETA--Especially in a 0.5 ppr setting.  Receptions are really the only thing he's got going for him.

I see Edelman, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, and Larry Fitzgerald as relatively similar fantasy players - older guys who could be fantasy WR1s. Edelman is the youngest of the four (by 1-3 years). He was a top 10 WR last year in ppg, and has been up there for the past 3 years (with an average of 106/1168/7 per 16 games, including rushing stats). And New England has had a receiver succeeding in that role since 2007, with only a modest drop in production when Cassel was QB and a somewhat larger drop when Welker was recovering from his ACL. He is definitely situation-dependent, but he seems pretty well locked into that situation for now.

Fitzgerald is the oldest of the four, and has been the least productive in recent years, so he is behind the others.

[ZWK 1,969]

Post-draft running back rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    LeVeon Bell    PIT    24.5    (1)
1    2    Todd Gurley    RAM    22.1    (2)
2    3    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    21.1    unr
2    4    David Johnson    ARI    24.7    (3)
4    5    Devonta Freeman    ATL    24.5    (4)
4    6    Lamar Miller    HOU    25.4    (10)
4    7    Mark Ingram    NO    26.7    (9)
4    8    Jamaal Charles    KC    29.7    (6)
4    9    Eddie Lacy    GB    26.3    (11)
4    10    Doug Martin    TB    27.6    (8)
4    11    LeSean McCoy    BUF    28.1    (7)
4    12    Jeremy Hill    CIN    23.9    (5)
5    13    Derrick Henry    TEN    22.1    unr
5    14    Carlos Hyde    SF    25.0    (15)
5    15    Ameer Abdullah    DET    23.2    (14)
5    16    Thomas Rawls    SEA    23.1    (17)
5    17    Adrian Peterson    MIN    31.4    (13)
5    18    Giovani Bernard    CIN    24.8    (18)
5    19    Dion Lewis    NE    25.9    (20)
5    20    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    22.9    (16)
5    21    Melvin Gordon    SD    23.4    (12)
6    22    C.J. Anderson    DEN    25.6    (28)
6    23    Karlos Williams    BUF    23.3    (22)
6    24    Latavius Murray    OAK    25.5    (19)
6    25    Matt Jones    WAS    23.5    (21)
6    26    Jeremy Langford    CHI    24.7    (23)
6    27    Matt Forte    NYJ    30.7    (24)
6    28    Duke Johnson    CLE    22.9    (30)
6    29    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    29.4    (25)
6    30    Jay Ajayi    MIA    23.2    (49)
6    31    Kenyan Drake    MIA    22.6    unr
6    32    Ryan Mathews    PHI    28.9    (31)
6    33    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    24.3    (39)
6    34    Charles Sims    TB    26.0    (41)
6    35    Arian Foster    FA    30.0    (26)
6    36    Justin Forsett    BAL    30.9    (27)
6    37    Andre Ellington    ARI    27.6    (32)
6    38    DeMarco Murray    TEN    28.5    (34)
6    39    C.J. Prosise    SEA    22.3    unr
6    40    Tevin Coleman    ATL    23.4    (42)
6    41    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    22.6    unr
7    42    Danny Woodhead    SD    31.7    (33)
7    43    Frank Gore    IND    33.3    (43)
7    44    Paul Perkins    NYG    21.8    unr
7    45    Devontae Booker    DEN    24.3    unr
7    46    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    23.6    (38)
7    47    Jordan Howard    CHI    21.8    unr
7    48    Rashad Jennings    NYG    31.4    (44)
7    49    Chris Ivory    JAX    28.4    (36)
7    50    Bilal Powell    NYJ    27.8    (40)
7    51    Ronnie Hillman    DEN    25.0    (37)
7    52    James White    NE    24.6    (45)
7    53    Alfred Morris    DAL    27.7    (50)
7    54    LeGarrette Blount    NE    29.7    (47)
7    55    Christine Michael    SEA    25.8    (35)
7    56    Spencer Ware    KC    24.8    (58)
7    57    DeAngelo Williams    PIT    33.4    (48)
8    58    Charcandrick West    KC    25.3    (52)
8    59    C.J. Spiller    NO    29.1    (53)
8    60    Alex Collins    SEA    22.0    unr
8    61    Javorius Allen    BAL    25.0    (62)
9    62    Theo Riddick    DET    25.3    unr
8    63    Shane Vereen    NYG    27.5    (54)
8    64    Jonathan Williams    BUF    22.6    unr
8    65    Tyler Ervin    HOU    22.9    unr
8    66    Khiry Robinson    NYJ    26.7    (46)
8    67    Denard Robinson    JAX    25.9    (55)
8    68    Zach Zenner    DET    25.0    (81)
9    69    DeAndre Washington    OAK    23.5    unr
9    70    Daniel Lasco    NO    23.9    unr
9    71    Trent Richardson    BAL    26.1    unr
9    72    Darius Jackson    DAL    22.8    unr
9    73    Keith Marshall    WAS    22.5    unr
9    74    James Starks    GB    30.5    (64)
9    75    Chris Johnson    ARI    30.9    (56)
9    76    Cameron Artis-Payne    CAR    26.2    (66)
9    77    Alfred Blue    HOU    25.3    (57)
9    78    David Cobb    TEN    23.2    (59)
9    79    Lorenzo Taliaferro    BAL    24.7    (60)
9    80    Stevan Ridley    DET    27.6    (67)
9    81    Darren McFadden    DAL    29.0    (51)
9    82    Benny Cunningham    RAM    26.2    (63)
9    83    Bishop Sankey    TEN    24.0    (61)
9    84    Darren Sproles    PHI    33.2    (65)
9    85    Travaris Cadet    NO    27.6    (68)
9    86    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    22.6    unr
9    87    Tre Mason    RAM    23.1    (75)
9    88    Robert Turbin    IND    26.7    unr
9    89    Zac Stacy    NYJ    25.4    (79)

[Biabreakable 5,097]

What happened to tier three? I guess there is a big gap between tier 2 and tier 4?

[ZWK 1,969]

5 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

What happened to tier three? I guess there is a big gap between tier 2 and tier 4?

Yeah. Devonta Freeman was tier 3, until I decided that he was a lot closer to Lamar Miller than to David Johnson.

[az_prof 510]

On 5/16/2016 at 9:30 PM, EBF said:

Three guys I would be looking at in a startup, especially the latter two. Lots of upside at a low cost. Can't wait to see if Smelter is legit.

 

Montgomery is a different style of WR with a lower ceiling, but that offense could be nice.

 

You are really bullish on Carroo. I see potential there, but not enough to put him that high yet.

I agree on Carroo being too high. I own Hurns and would never trade him for Carroo.  In fact,  I would have to get a player in Tier 6 to even consider moving him.

[ZWK 1,969]

Post-draft quarterback rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/20/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Cam Newton    CAR    27.3    (4)
1    2    Aaron Rodgers    GB    32.8    (2)
1    3    Russell Wilson    SEA    27.8    (3)
1    4    Andrew Luck    IND    27.0    (1)
3    5    Marcus Mariota    TEN    22.8    (5)
3    6    Jameis Winston    TB    22.7    (6)
3    7    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    34.5    (7)
4    8    Matt Ryan    ATL    31.3    (8)
4    9    Jared Goff    RAM    21.9    unr
4    10    Derek Carr    OAK    25.4    (9)
4    11    Tyrod Taylor    BUF    27.1    (10)
4    12    Blake Bortles    JAX    24.7    (12)
4    13    Tom Brady    NE    39.1    (11)
4    14    Carson Wentz    PHI    23.7    unr
4    15    Andy Dalton    CIN    28.8    (14)
4    16    Carson Palmer    ARI    36.7    (13)
5    17    Teddy Bridgewater    MIN    23.8    (15)
5    18    Drew Brees    NO    37.6    (16)
5    19    Ryan Tannehill    MIA    28.1    (18)
5    20    Paxton Lynch    DEN    22.6    unr
5    21    Colin Kaepernick    SF    28.8    (17)
5    22    Philip Rivers    SD    34.7    (19)
5    23    Matthew Stafford    DET    28.6    (20)
5    24    Kirk Cousins    WAS    28.0    (21)
5    25    Robert Griffin III    CLE    26.5    (24)
5    26    Eli Manning    NYG    35.7    (22)
5    27    Tony Romo    DAL    36.4    (23)
6    28    Brock Osweiler    HOU    25.8    (33)
6    29    Alex Smith    KC    34.4    (26)
6    30    Jay Cutler    CHI    33.3    (28)
6    31    Ryan Fitzpatrick    PHI    33.8    (27)
7    32    Joe Flacco    BAL    31.6    (29)
7    33    Sam Bradford    PHI    28.8    (30)
7    34    Jimmy Garoppolo    NE    24.8    (32)
8    35    Blaine Gabbert    SF    26.9    (34)
8    36    Geno Smith    NYJ    25.9    (35)
8    37    Christian Hackenberg    NYJ    21.5    unr
8    38    Johnny Manziel    CLE    23.7    (25)
8    39    Cody Kessler    CLE    23.3    unr
8    40    Bryce Petty    NYJ    25.3    (40)
8    41    Chase Daniel    PHI    29.9    unr
8    42    A.J. McCarron    CIN    26.0    (36)
8    43    Landry Jones    PIT    27.4    (37)
8    44    Brett Hundley    GB    23.2    (46)
9    45    Garrett Grayson    NO    25.3    (41)
9    46    Jacoby Brissett    NE    23.7    unr
9    47    Nick Foles    RAM    27.6    (39)
9    48    Josh McCown    CLE    37.2    (43)
9    49    Mark Sanchez    DEN    29.8    (44)
9    50    Zach Mettenberger    SD    25.1    (42)
9    51    Brian Hoyer    CHI    30.9    (38)
9    52    EJ Manuel    BUF    26.5    (47)

[Adso 27]

On 5/16/2016 at 9:29 PM, ZWK said:

Post-draft WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 1/16/16 for the then-top-61, and from 1/11/16 for the rest.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
5    19    Keenan Allen    SD    24.3    (16)

To start, love this thread and the conversation on it. This is not a slam, just curious about this placement.

That said, I really don't get this ranking. KA is going into his 4th year in the league and will still only be 24. He's the undisputed #1 receiver on his team and even though he was on track to have an insane 134 receptions when he went down in 2015, there's even more targets to go around in 2016. Whis is back who called his number in the RZ like mad as a rookie. They've upgraded their line and added a field stretcher to the mix; Gates is probably going to get even less targets. Everything seems to point at KA having even more opportunity than what he had last year when he was WR #3 at the time he went down.

Look at who is ranked ahead of him. I feel like the argument could be easily made that all these guys have bigger question marks, whether it's QB, health, competition, etc. 

3    9    Alshon Jeffery    CHI    26.5    (8)
4    10    Dez Bryant    DAL    27.8    (11) 
4    11    Randall Cobb    GB    26.0    (12) 
4    12    Mike Evans    TB    23.0    (14)
4    13    T.Y. Hilton    IND    26.8    (13)
4    14    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    28.7    (10)
4    15    Brandin Cooks    NO    22.9    (15)
5    16    Kelvin Benjamin    CAR    25.6    (19)
5    17    Devante Parker    MIA    23.6    (17) 
5    18    Kevin White    CHI    24.2    (18)

For me, the 2.5yr age gap and injury history just barely tilts the value toward KA over Alshon who has been dominant when he actually plays, but the rest of them... some combination of age, production, situation, and injury history makes them less valuable than KA in my mind.

[ZWK 1,969]

1 hour ago, Adso said:

To start, love this thread and the conversation on it. This is not a slam, just curious about this placement.

That said, I really don't get this ranking. KA is going into his 4th year in the league and will still only be 24. He's the undisputed #1 receiver on his team and even though he was on track to have an insane 134 receptions when he went down in 2015, there's even more targets to go around in 2016. Whis is back who called his number in the RZ like mad as a rookie. They've upgraded their line and added a field stretcher to the mix; Gates is probably going to get even less targets. Everything seems to point at KA having even more opportunity than what he had last year when he was WR #3 at the time he went down.

Look at who is ranked ahead of him. I feel like the argument could be easily made that all these guys have bigger question marks, whether it's QB, health, competition, etc. 

3    9    Alshon Jeffery    CHI    26.5    (8)
4    10    Dez Bryant    DAL    27.8    (11) 
4    11    Randall Cobb    GB    26.0    (12) 
4    12    Mike Evans    TB    23.0    (14)
4    13    T.Y. Hilton    IND    26.8    (13)
4    14    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    28.7    (10)
4    15    Brandin Cooks    NO    22.9    (15)
5    16    Kelvin Benjamin    CAR    25.6    (19)
5    17    Devante Parker    MIA    23.6    (17) 
5    18    Kevin White    CHI    24.2    (18)

For me, the 2.5yr age gap and injury history just barely tilts the value toward KA over Alshon who has been dominant when he actually plays, but the rest of them... some combination of age, production, situation, and injury history makes them less valuable than KA in my mind.

Allen did have a nice half-season, but he had a lot of things working in his favor: Rivers as his quarterback, an offense that was on pace to lead the league in passing attempts (on pace for 694 att in the games he played), and very little competition for targets (including Gates missing 5 of the 8 games he played). This year, it's likely that they'll have a drop in pass attempts and an increase in weapons to throw it to, and it's not clear how long Rivers has left.

For comparison Jeffery had similar stats over half a season last year with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, on an offense that threw the ball only 523 times, and he also had similar per-game stats over 16 games in 2013 (and his 2014 was better than any of Allen's complete seasons, too). So I think Allen is in the right tier.

[georg013 344]

5 hours ago, ZWK said:

Allen did have a nice half-season, but he had a lot of things working in his favor: Rivers as his quarterback, an offense that was on pace to lead the league in passing attempts (on pace for 694 att in the games he played), and very little competition for targets (including Gates missing 5 of the 8 games he played). This year, it's likely that they'll have a drop in pass attempts and an increase in weapons to throw it to, and it's not clear how long Rivers has left.

For comparison Jeffery had similar stats over half a season last year with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, on an offense that threw the ball only 523 times, and he also had similar per-game stats over 16 games in 2013 (and his 2014 was better than any of Allen's complete seasons, too). So I think Allen is in the right tier.

Isn't thy exactly why OBJ is ranked so highly? His situation was perfect. No mouths to feed, Super Bowl winning QB, no effective run game to boot.

[Dinsy Ejotuz 12,896]

Here are your 17th to 35th ranked QBs, with the established vets removed and split into my own tiers.

 

1    20    Paxton Lynch    DEN    22.6    unr
1    24    Kirk Cousins    WAS    28.0    (21)
1    34    Jimmy Garoppolo    NE    24.8    (32)
1    35    Blaine Gabbert    SF    26.9    (34)

These are guys I think have a good chance to be decent long-term starters.

 

2    21    Colin Kaepernick    SF    28.8    (17)
2    25    Robert Griffin III    CLE    26.5    (24)

3    17    Teddy Bridgewater    MIN    23.8    (15)
3    28    Brock Osweiler    HOU    25.8    (33)
3    33    Sam Bradford    PHI    28.8    (30)

Not really sure what to do with Kaep or Griffin -- they're scheme dependent IMO and it's not clear how many teams are willing to stick with a favorable scheme.

Third tier I wouldn't touch.

 

Edited May 18, 2016 by wdcrob

[Just Win Baby 2,585]

8 hours ago, ZWK said:

Allen did have a nice half-season, but he had a lot of things working in his favor: Rivers as his quarterback, an offense that was on pace to lead the league in passing attempts (on pace for 694 att in the games he played), and very little competition for targets (including Gates missing 5 of the 8 games he played). This year, it's likely that they'll have a drop in pass attempts and an increase in weapons to throw it to, and it's not clear how long Rivers has left.

For comparison Jeffery had similar stats over half a season last year with Jay Cutler as his quarterback, on an offense that threw the ball only 523 times, and he also had similar per-game stats over 16 games in 2013 (and his 2014 was better than any of Allen's complete seasons, too). So I think Allen is in the right tier.

I agree with all of your reasoning other than the implication that Rivers may not have much time remaining. He is under contract for 4 more years, and there is no reason to believe he won't play it out. He has never missed a game in college or the NFL, starting 220 straight combined games, so the risk of durability becoming an issue seems low.

[matttyl 2,689]

11 hours ago, ZWK said:

1    2    Aaron Rodgers    GB    32.8    (2)

1    4    Andrew Luck    IND    27.0    (1)
 

Likely splitting hairs here, but why aren't these two flipped?  I just traded Rodgers for Luck straight up in a 10 team league, and really thought all I was doing was making Rodgers 6 years younger and putting him in a dome.  In Luck's last full season (2014) he threw for 4,761 yards - a mark Rodgers hasn't hit in his 8 "full" seasons.  Is durability the concern?

[Borden 1,078]

Why Carr over Goff? I would this for FF reasons Carr should be in front. Better WRs, no star RB, worse defense. I understand Goff is younger and went higher in the draft but it's not like Carr is really old or was a 7th round pick. 

[Mr. Irrelevant 1,736]

1 hour ago, wdcrob said:

Here are your 17th to 35th ranked QBs, with the established vets removed and split into my own tiers.

1    35    Blaine Gabbert    SF    26.9    (34)

These are guys I think have a good chance to be decent long-term starters.

Not to hijack the discussion on ZWK's rankings, but doesn't your model put the heaviest weight on completion and sack percentages? Gabbert's career numbers in both of these measures are beyond atrocious. Admittedly, the former improved last season (albeit just to league-average), but he still shows precious few signs of pocket awareness.

What makes you so high on him?

[gabes1919 323]

20 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Likely splitting hairs here, but why aren't these two flipped?  I just traded Rodgers for Luck straight up in a 10 team league, and really thought all I was doing was making Rodgers 6 years younger and putting him in a dome.  In Luck's last full season (2014) he threw for 4,761 yards - a mark Rodgers hasn't hit in his 8 "full" seasons.  Is durability the concern?

I agree with you on this one. I think Luck should be above Rodgers based on age alone. Luck plays in an up and coming division and doesn't have some of the potentially elite weapons (or even a decent o-line) that Rodgers has but I think Luck should still be ahead for the long term. His injury was a long time coming due to the bad O-line issues, I don't think it's something we need to worry about long term. Rodgers deserves the 'injury-prone' tag more than Luck does.

 

Also, Bears homer. Rodgers can suck an egg. His best quality is Olivia Munn

[Dinsy Ejotuz 12,896]

18 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Not to hijack the discussion on ZWK's rankings, but doesn't your model put the heaviest weight on completion and sack percentages? Gabbert's career numbers in both of these measures are beyond atrocious. Admittedly, the former improved last season (albeit just to league-average), but he still shows precious few signs of pocket awareness.

What makes you so high on him?

I'll confess that a lot of it is intuition with Gabbert -- so take it for whatever you think it's worth.  But my thinking goes like this...

Unlike other positions QBs can often stick around long enough to get better at some of the underlying skills or abilities that make them successful.  Players like Alex Smith or Josh McCown or Rich Gannon.  I think that's partly because so much of what makes a QB good is in his head, and partly because by the time other positions are 27/28 they're out of the league if they aren't any good.

And unlike Smith, McCown or Gannon -- who were all physically marginal even in their prime -- Gabbert is a ridiculous athlete with great size.  He also had the advantage of getting a ton of NFL experience at a very young age.  Which I believe helps not just develop him but actually increases his potential ceiling.  (Think of it as the difference between filling the container and expanding the size of the container.)

Add in what appears to be a great work ethic and an offensive system that might leverage his rushing ability and it wouldn't surprise me to see Gabbert become fairly relevant even in standard 1-QB leagues.  Given that he's only 26 right now (a year younger than Russel Wilson), if he hits he could still have a solid run.  And despite being back on the fantasy radar, the price is right -- it's still a very low-risk play.

Edited May 18, 2016 by wdcrob

[bud29 1,417]

I like Goff, but I'm pretty sure I'd take Bortles over him 10 times out of 10. 

That being said, I really enjoy reading through these. Keep up the good work. 

[Mingooch 155]

I second bud29 on taking Bortles over Goff as well.

[Just Win Baby 2,585]

13 hours ago, ZWK said:

4    9    Jared Goff    RAM    21.9    unr
4    10    Derek Carr    OAK    25.4    (9)
4    11    Tyrod Taylor    BUF    27.1    (10)
4    12    Blake Bortles    JAX    24.7    (12)
4    13    Tom Brady    NE    39.1    (11)
4    14    Carson Wentz    PHI    23.7    unr
4    15    Andy Dalton    CIN    28.8    (14)
4    16    Carson Palmer    ARI    36.7    (13)
5    17    Teddy Bridgewater    MIN    23.8    (15)
5    18    Drew Brees    NO    37.6    (16)
5    19    Ryan Tannehill    MIA    28.1    (18)
5    20    Paxton Lynch    DEN    22.6    unr
5    21    Colin Kaepernick    SF    28.8    (17)
5    22    Philip Rivers    SD    34.7    (19)

Comments/questions on this group:

1. Like others, I'd take both Carr and Bortles ahead of Goff.
2. How many seasons do you look forward for these rankings? How many QB1 seasons are you projecting they have remaining? They all seem high to varying degrees IMO. Perhaps it would be useful also to comment on how you ranked Peyton at this time last year and at this time two years ago.
3. I think this is the highest ranking I have seen anywhere for Tyrod. Not disagreeing but interested in your rationale.
4. Rivers at #22 seems low. In the past 8 seasons, he has had just 1 season outside the top 12 QBs (per PFR scoring), and in his previous season (2013) with Whisenhunt as OC, he was QB6. He has never missed a game, so he is not an injury risk. The team has replaced Floyd with Benjamin, replaced TE Green with rookie Henry, and Allen shouldn't typically miss half a season like he did last year.

Interested in your thoughts on these, ZWK.

As always, I appreciate the time and effort you put into these and appreciate that you share them with the community.

[thriftyrocker 347]

Do you guys see Bortles/Carr as a different tier, or just preferable? I wouldn't get too worked about about intra-tier rankings. I can see fading Bortles to the point where he's the same tier as Goff. He put up a phenomenal season. He's got 2 WR set up for the foreseeable. He should continue to pad his value with a few rushing stats. But the stats last year were a perfect storm. The defense just got better, which will lead to less attempts. He's not that efficient (his completion percentage was sub 60 and his ANY/A was below average). I would rather have him than Goff because his situation is better and has established himself, but I can see putting either rookie in that tier, especially if you are heavily factoring in pedigree.

Edited May 18, 2016 by thriftyrocker

[FreeBaGeL 8,820]

I've read in so many threads now about how the Jags defense is sure to be sooooo much better this year. 

Surely I'm not the only one that thinks these kind of absolute predictions based mostly on a few rookies is fairly absurd? People overreact to the draft like this every year and it almost never works out that way. There have been teams that have added a lot more to improve their defense than the Jags did which not only didn't translate to them getting significantly better, but actually led to them being worse. 

[humpback 1,106]

3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I've read in so many threads now about how the Jags defense is sure to be sooooo much better this year. 

Surely I'm not the only one that thinks these kind of absolute predictions based mostly on a few rookies is fairly absurd? People overreact to the draft like this every year and it almost never works out that way. There have been teams that have added a lot more to improve their defense than the Jags did which not only didn't translate to them getting significantly better, but actually led to them being worse. 

I agree when it's based only on the draft, but that's not all it is in this case.

[mikel2014 134]

3 minutes ago, humpback said:

I agree when it's based only on the draft, but that's not all it is in this case.

Exactly. Between free agency, the draft, and the numerous young players maturing the whole defense should be improved. They literally have made significant improvements everywhere.

Safety - Tashaun Gipson

Corner - Jalen Ramsey, Prince Amukamara

LBs - Myles Jack

DT - Malik Jackson

DE - Dante Fowler, Yannick Ngakoue

[FreeBaGeL 8,820]

It's mostly the draft and young unproven guys, many of whom are much more likely to never amount to anything than to be Von Miller.

Even beyond that, what I'm talking about is not limited to just the draft.  I'm not sure how many times we have to get slapped in the face with the knowledge that great defenses generally come from units being held together for a while and not just a bunch of random guys slapped together, but it appears we're due for a few more before we get the point.

They'll probably improve some this year just because statistically there's really nowhere to go but up, but I think they're about 10x more likely to end up in the ~15-20 range than the top 5 range like some people seem to be expecting.  There's a reason that the fantasy community is generally a year behind finding the good defenses.  The majority of the time we predict a team making a big jump they end up being pretty bad.  Last year it was Buffalo.  Meanwhile, Denver was sitting down there in a jumble with Miami and Detroit.  Whoops.

Regardless, it may happen, but counting on it in any kind of meaningful way when ranking the Jags' offensive players is way over the top.  There's a small chance this defense will turn out great or more than marginally improved, but it's small.  It's a crapshoot with defenses and we're wrong about them the majority of the time, which is why defenses get drafted so late in fantasy drafts.  I don't know why someone would choose to let that crapshoot affect more than just picking a defense because you have to start one.

Think about that for a second.  Every time a thread comes up about when to draft a defense the first thing we talk about is how it's better to pick them late because they're so hard to predict.  Yet here we are, taking that thing that's hard to predict and applying it to our picks in the first 5 rounds.  That seems like a really bad and unreliable variable to give any real weight when talking about picks that valuable.  It makes no sense to say "I won't rank a defense high because they're too hard to predict" and then say "I'm going to change my ranking of this guy because I am predicting how his defense will turn out".

Edited May 18, 2016 by FreeBaGeL

[humpback 1,106]

24 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

It's mostly the draft and young unproven guys, many of whom are much more likely to never amount to anything than to be Von Miller.

Even beyond that, what I'm talking about is not limited to just the draft.  I'm not sure how many times we have to get slapped in the face with the knowledge that great defenses generally come from units being held together for a while and not just a bunch of random guys slapped together, but it appears we're due for a few more before we get the point.

They'll probably improve some this year just because statistically there's really nowhere to go but up, but I think they're about 10x more likely to end up in the ~15-20 range than the top 5 range like some people seem to be expecting.  There's a reason that the fantasy community is generally a year behind finding the good defenses.  The majority of the time we predict a team making a big jump they end up being pretty bad.  Last year it was Buffalo.  Meanwhile, Denver was sitting down there in a jumble with Miami and Detroit.  Whoops.

Regardless, it may happen, but counting on it in any kind of meaningful way when ranking the Jags' offensive players is way over the top.  There's a small chance this defense will turn out great or more than marginally improved, but it's small.  It's a crapshoot with defenses and we're wrong about them the majority of the time, which is why defenses get drafted so late in fantasy drafts.  I don't know why someone would choose to let that crapshoot affect more than just picking a defense because you have to start one.

Think about that for a second.  Every time a thread comes up about when to draft a defense the first thing we talk about is how it's better to pick them late because they're so hard to predict.  Yet here we are, taking that thing that's hard to predict and applying it to our picks in the first 5 rounds.  That seems like a really bad and unreliable variable to give any real weight when talking about picks that valuable.  It makes no sense to say "I won't rank a defense high because they're too hard to predict" and then say "I'm going to change my ranking of this guy because I am predicting how his defense will turn out".

It looks like you were responding to a post about Bortles, where one of the things he said was "the defense just got better" so it may lead to fewer attempts.  It seems to be a ginormous leap between that simple statement and this tangent.

Also, it doesn't really matter if we're a year behind on defenses since this is a dynasty thread.

[FreeBaGeL 8,820]

7 minutes ago, humpback said:

It looks like you were responding to a post about Bortles, where one of the things he said was "the defense just got better" so it may lead to fewer attempts.  It seems to be a ginormous leap between that simple statement and this tangent.

Also, it doesn't really matter if we're a year behind on defenses since this is a dynasty thread.

Part of it is that it's been going around everywhere, not just in that one statement.  I'm probably applying more to it than just that statement.

Another part of it is that there have been other statements made in the string of responses since then.  "They have literally made significant improvements everywhere".

Regardless, I think it applies to the original statement too.  I think the odds are fairly low that the defensive changes will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts.  A more balanced attack?  Maybe, if they can swing it.  But as far as predicting a defense making substantial enough improvements to greatly impact a QB's passing attempts?  We have an utterly terrible track record of predicting that.

As to the last point, I think you mis-interpretted or perhaps I poorly worded what I meant.  I didn't mean we're a year behind as in we rank them highly a year before they actually turn good.  I meant we're a year behind in that we generally only know a defense is good after it's actually shown that it's good on the field.  We are utterly horrible at finding the good defense before they actually play well.  Every year there are a few defenses that do turn it around and improve.  Unfortunately they're rarely the ones that everyone thought they were going to be headed into the season.

Edited May 18, 2016 by FreeBaGeL

[Arodin 3,083]

1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I've read in so many threads now about how the Jags defense is sure to be sooooo much better this year. 

Surely I'm not the only one that thinks these kind of absolute predictions based mostly on a few rookies is fairly absurd? People overreact to the draft like this every year and it almost never works out that way. There have been teams that have added a lot more to improve their defense than the Jags did which not only didn't translate to them getting significantly better, but actually led to them being worse. 

Not only that, but a lot of the people who are talking of the Jax defense are running down the Giants' defense for too many high-priced additions....

[mikel2014 134]

41 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Part of it is that it's been going around everywhere, not just in that one statement.  I'm probably applying more to it than just that statement.

Another part of it is that there have been other statements made in the string of responses since then.  "They have literally made significant improvements everywhere".

Regardless, I think it applies to the original statement too.  I think the odds are fairly low that the defensive changes will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts.  A more balanced attack?  Maybe, if they can swing it.  But as far as predicting a defense making substantial enough improvements to greatly impact a QB's passing attempts?  We have an utterly terrible track record of predicting that.

As to the last point, I think you mis-interpretted or perhaps I poorly worded what I meant.  I didn't mean we're a year behind as in we rank them highly a year before they actually turn good.  I meant we're a year behind in that we generally only know a defense is good after it's actually shown that it's good on the field.  We are utterly horrible at finding the good defense before they actually play well.  Every year there are a few defenses that do turn it around and improve.  Unfortunately they're rarely the ones that everyone thought they were going to be headed into the season.

You included my comment in there, but I'm not sure what there is to disagree with about it. I agree that we shouldn't alter dynasty rankings based off of the defense. My comment was responding to the portion of your post where you said, "absolute predictions based mostly on a few rookies is fairly absurd? People overreact to the draft..." 

My point is that there is a much larger picture in Jacksonville than this year's draft. It involves numerous quality improvements beyond the draft. 

[thriftyrocker 347]

1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Regardless, I think it applies to the original statement too.  I think the odds are fairly low that the defensive changes will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts.  A more balanced attack?  Maybe, if they can swing it.  But as far as predicting a defense making substantial enough improvements to greatly impact a QB's passing attempts?  We have an utterly terrible track record of predicting that.

I made the original comment. I agree it is not as simple as my statement. Defense is part of the picture. If the defense doesn't get substantially better, there is a similar catch-22 for Bortles' negatives from 2015; Jax can't continue to be a come from behind team before they start pointing figures at the QB and ask why are they always coming from behind and still below 500. Bortles' 600 attempts is not a huge number, really. The stats are shaped also due to scenario, slack defenses in the 4Q. Certainly Bortles could become a better QB and make the team more competitive just based on him, but I think that is the least likely of the scenarios. A lot of NFL QBs attempts go down as their career progresses because the teams decide that's a better way to win (Stafford, Cutler, etc., maybe could include Romo).

[humpback 1,106]

4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Part of it is that it's been going around everywhere, not just in that one statement.  I'm probably applying more to it than just that statement.

Another part of it is that there have been other statements made in the string of responses since then.  "They have literally made significant improvements everywhere".

Regardless, I think it applies to the original statement too.  I think the odds are fairly low that the defensive changes will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts.  A more balanced attack?  Maybe, if they can swing it.  But as far as predicting a defense making substantial enough improvements to greatly impact a QB's passing attempts?  We have an utterly terrible track record of predicting that.

As to the last point, I think you mis-interpretted or perhaps I poorly worded what I meant.  I didn't mean we're a year behind as in we rank them highly a year before they actually turn good.  I meant we're a year behind in that we generally only know a defense is good after it's actually shown that it's good on the field.  We are utterly horrible at finding the good defense before they actually play well.  Every year there are a few defenses that do turn it around and improve.  Unfortunately they're rarely the ones that everyone thought they were going to be headed into the season.

Okay, just responding to what was written in here, can't comment on what was said in other threads.

I agree that the odds are fairly low that it will have any large impact on Bortles' pass attempts, but then again no one claimed that it would.  The poster simply listed it as one of several factors to consider, some positive and some negative.

I also agree that defenses are often tough to predict in advance, but I'm fairly confident that the Jags will be improved- there is essentially no where to go but up for starters, plus they have added a lot of talent to that side of the ball (and it wasn't all in the draft).  Again, I'm not saying they are a top 5 defense or that you should drop Bortles down 10 spots in your rankings, but it could be something to keep in mind.

Edited May 19, 2016 by humpback

[ZWK 1,969]

@Borden@bud29@Mingooch@Just Win Baby

Goff: I tend to be high on highly drafted rookie QBs. A year ago I had Mariota & Winston ranked 5 & 6 right after their draft. QB fantasy value is all about upside - elite QBs (like P Manning, Brady, Brees) are worth way way more over their career than pretty good QBs (like E Manning, Hasselbeck, Schaub). And elite QBs usually show something early in their career (often very early) - 23-year-old Peyton Manning was the #3 fantasy QB (and #2 in ANY/A) in his second NFL season. Carr & Bortles have shown some promise but I'm not blown away with them. Some stats like what they did last year and some stats don't (e.g., Carr ranked 12th in DYAR last year but 26th in QBR; Bortles was the #3 fantasy QB but was 25th in DYAR & 30th in QBR). Plus, I like Goff as a prospect.

@matttyl Luck vs. Rodgers is a close call; I've flip-flopped on them over the past few months. The concern about Luck is that he hasn't had an all-pro type season yet; even in 2014 the advanced stats typically had him in the QB 5-10 range. Going by reputation he belongs at or near the top, but there is some cause for concern because his production/efficiency hasn't quite been at that level in any of his first 4 seasons. For owners who have a 3-year window I think Rodgers is clearly the right play; I have a longer window so I think it's a close call.

 

12 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Comments/questions on this group:

1. Like others, I'd take both Carr and Bortles ahead of Goff.
2. How many seasons do you look forward for these rankings? How many QB1 seasons are you projecting they have remaining? They all seem high to varying degrees IMO. Perhaps it would be useful also to comment on how you ranked Peyton at this time last year and at this time two years ago.
3. I think this is the highest ranking I have seen anywhere for Tyrod. Not disagreeing but interested in your rationale.
4. Rivers at #22 seems low. In the past 8 seasons, he has had just 1 season outside the top 12 QBs (per PFR scoring), and in his previous season (2013) with Whisenhunt as OC, he was QB6. He has never missed a game, so he is not an injury risk. The team has replaced Floyd with Benjamin, replaced TE Green with rookie Henry, and Allen shouldn't typically miss half a season like he did last year.

Interested in your thoughts on these, ZWK.

As always, I appreciate the time and effort you put into these and appreciate that you share them with the community.

2. Roughly, I try to include a player's entire future career with a 5-10% discount rate per year. It's unclear to me which players in particular you're questioning here, or which direction you think I'm erring in for how I value older QBs vs. younger QBs. I had Peyton as QB14 a year ago and QB11 two years ago.

3. Tyrod gets a big bonus from running, and he rated around QB10 as a passer last year according to various advanced efficiency stats. He was also a top 12 fantasy QB in ppg in many scoring systems. Might have been a fluke and he'll regress, but he also has upside well above what he did in his first year as a starter in a run-heavy offense.

4. Rivers turns 35 this year and he has been roughly a baseline level QB over the past 4 years (with around 30 VBD accumulated, most of it in 2013). He definitely has upside above what he's been doing lately (he was in contention for best QB in the NFL from 2008-2010) but the odds aren't great. And it's unclear how widespread this QB fountain of youth is.

[FUBAR 3,203]

Really enjoy the discussion these rankings bring and thank you for putting these out there.  

We'll disagree on a few,  I'd put Palmer below Brees and think you have fitz and Flacco swapped but your logic is understandable.  

The only thing I don't like is skipping tier 2.  Clearly you want to show the drop but imo you could just say there's a big drop or maybe include dynasty value points for each player?

MM/Winston/Ben seems like an odd tier, but presumably your point is simply that if you're looking for points now take Ben and their values are close.   I disagree with the latter.  There's no league I'm in where I could trade Ben for either of those players.  They're tier 2 in dynasty just behind the big 4. 

[Sabertooth 5,923]

17 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

Do you guys see Bortles/Carr as a different tier, or just preferable? I wouldn't get too worked about about intra-tier rankings. I can see fading Bortles to the point where he's the same tier as Goff. He put up a phenomenal season. He's got 2 WR set up for the foreseeable. He should continue to pad his value with a few rushing stats. But the stats last year were a perfect storm. The defense just got better, which will lead to less attempts. He's not that efficient (his completion percentage was sub 60 and his ANY/A was below average). I would rather have him than Goff because his situation is better and has established himself, but I can see putting either rookie in that tier, especially if you are heavily factoring in pedigree.

I can see your point.  But for me personally, we've seen Bortles do it.  Goff could be an outright bust. Some guys just bust, and I think Bortles has shown that he is not a bust.  So his floor is automatically higher than Goff.  And if you want to talk about upside, well he finished QB4 last season behind only Cam, Tom, and Russell.  His ceiling is most likely higher than Goff as well.  I'm not too worried about the defense.  Heck, shorter fields mean more scores.

Here's another interesting fact about Bortles,  Only two players in NFL history have more Passing TDs or Passing Yards in a season than Bortles by age 24.  He had the third best season ever for a kid that young.  Matt Stafford and Dan Marino best him.  That's a pretty historic start to his career.  

Personally he's my favorite young prospect and he's right behind Cam, Luck and Rodgers in my overall rankings.    Same tier as Wilson, Winston, and Carr.   

[FUBAR 3,203]

17 minutes ago, Sabertooth said:

I can see your point.  But for me personally, we've seen Bortles do it.  Goff could be an outright bust. Some guys just bust, and I think Bortles has shown that he is not a bust.  So his floor is automatically higher than Goff.  And if you want to talk about upside, well he finished QB4 last season behind only Cam, Tom, and Russell.  His ceiling is most likely higher than Goff as well.  I'm not too worried about the defense.  Heck, shorter fields mean more scores.

Here's another interesting fact about Bortles,  Only two players in NFL history have more Passing TDs or Passing Yards in a season than Bortles by age 24.  He had the third best season ever for a kid that young.  Matt Stafford and Dan Marino best him.  That's a pretty historic start to his career.  

Personally he's my favorite young prospect and he's right behind Cam, Luck and Rodgers in my overall rankings.    Same tier as Wilson, Winston, and Carr.   

Bortles, MM, and Winston certainly.  The others are debatable.

[matttyl 2,689]

5 hours ago, ZWK said:

 

@matttyl Luck vs. Rodgers is a close call; I've flip-flopped on them over the past few months. The concern about Luck is that he hasn't had an all-pro type season yet; even in 2014 the advanced stats typically had him in the QB 5-10 range. Going by reputation he belongs at or near the top, but there is some cause for concern because his production/efficiency hasn't quite been at that level in any of his first 4 seasons. For owners who have a 3-year window I think Rodgers is clearly the right play; I have a longer window so I think it's a close call.

 

Thanks for your answers, and I agree with much of what you say.  Like I said above, I traded Rodgers for Luck straight up about 2 weeks ago.  I feel all I did was make Rodgers 6 years younger and put him in a dome.  I'm in win now mode for sure, but my team is also very young (#1 pick this year, Cooper and Watkins, Allen and K White behind them).  If I ever "lose" on a dynasty trade, I at least get the younger players out of the deal in the hopes of salvaging some trade value down the line.

 

[Dr. Octopus 15,707]

15 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

I made the original comment. I agree it is not as simple as my statement. Defense is part of the picture. If the defense doesn't get substantially better, there is a similar catch-22 for Bortles' negatives from 2015; Jax can't continue to be a come from behind team before they start pointing figures at the QB and ask why are they always coming from behind and still below 500. Bortles' 600 attempts is not a huge number, really. The stats are shaped also due to scenario, slack defenses in the 4Q. Certainly Bortles could become a better QB and make the team more competitive just based on him, but I think that is the least likely of the scenarios. A lot of NFL QBs attempts go down as their career progresses because the teams decide that's a better way to win (Stafford, Cutler, etc., maybe could include Romo).

the "fact" that Bortles padded his stats significantly in the 4Q has been debunked on this board before though I beleive. I'm not saying there's no validity to it at all, but any effect a better defense has on the JAX passing game could be countered by Bortles progression as a young QB and the offense gelling as they grow together.

[Just Win Baby 2,585]

20 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

How many seasons do you look forward for these rankings? How many QB1 seasons are you projecting they have remaining? They all seem high to varying degrees IMO. Perhaps it would be useful also to comment on how you ranked Peyton at this time last year and at this time two years ago.

 

6 hours ago, ZWK said:

2. Roughly, I try to include a player's entire future career with a 5-10% discount rate per year. It's unclear to me which players in particular you're questioning here, or which direction you think I'm erring in for how I value older QBs vs. younger QBs. I had Peyton as QB14 a year ago and QB11 two years ago.

 

Sorry, I edited my post and inadvertently left it unclear. I was thinking about the rankings for Brady, Brees, and Palmer.

In retrospect, do you think it was appropriate to have Peyton at QB14 last year? At QB11 two years ago? The cliff came fast for him, just as I expect it will for these other guys, but particularly Brady, plus Brady is facing a 4 game suspension to open his most valuable season remaining.

So, for example, how many QB1 seasons are you projecting for Brady at this point? Do you think more along the lines of ppg than total points, which can mitigate the suspension?

[FreeBaGeL 8,820]

3 hours ago, matttyl said:

Thanks for your answers, and I agree with much of what you say.  Like I said above, I traded Rodgers for Luck straight up about 2 weeks ago.  I feel all I did was make Rodgers 6 years younger and put him in a dome.  I'm in win now mode for sure, but my team is also very young (#1 pick this year, Cooper and Watkins, Allen and K White behind them).  If I ever "lose" on a dynasty trade, I at least get the younger players out of the deal in the hopes of salvaging some trade value down the line.

 

I realize that Andrew Luck is the prodigal son and all, but there are risks to him beyond just his health.  Namely, that even when he was healthy last year he struggled a fair amount.  There is a non-negligible chance that his career path more closely resembles Matt Stafford's than Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning.

I'm not saying it's likely or anything, but it's certainly there.  His career thus far has been the perfect fantasy storm of poor defense and running game leading to lots of passing attempts, again resembling when Matt Stafford was considered a top 3 fantasy QB.  I get the eye test and all that but perception is not necessarily reality.  He now has 1 strong fantasy season in 4 tries and that was the season where Indy led the NFL in pass attempts.