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Post here when coaches do something you disagree with (4 Viewers)
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Ladsud
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Fisher going for 2 when the Rams scored their first touchdown today. That essentially cost them the game.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Is there an online win pct analytics tool?
Yesterday, Jaguars had just scored and were down by 5 with 2:14 to play and 1 timeout left. They unsuccessfully onside kicked. I thought they should have kicked away to get better field position and try to go for a GW TD from closer to midfield.
Was trying to see if the numbers supported my position.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Was it obviously stupid at the time? Or just cause of the outcome 55 minutes later?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I just found out here a bit ago about the Falcons kicking a FG.
Now THAT is certainly something that was obviously brainless at the time, and very obviously stupid. Wow.
Now THAT is certainly something that was obviously brainless at the time, and very obviously stupid. Wow.
RBM
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Onside kick is the way to go there IMO. Not sure what the numbers say.
I would think it's easier to get an onside kick and go 50 yards with 2 minutes left and one time out for a TD than to have to get a 3 and out and go like 60 yards with a minute left and no timeouts.
A couple numbers to help figure this out I think:
1- What are the odds of recovering an onside kick?
2- what are the odds of getting the 3 and out?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I could have sworn there was some site that published those zig-zag charts showing WP throughout the game, but I tried to Google it and couldn't find anything, just that article I linked to. You could try clicking on some of the links in this article and see if it takes you to an analysis of the Jax game.
I seem to recall the odds of a non-surprise onside kick are like 10%. No idea on No. 2.
XP% has gone from like 99% to 94%, so by that logic you should go for two if you think your chances are better than 47%.
I didn't watch the game or hear any of Fisher's commentary, but I don't think you can judge the decision unless you know his thought process. Maybe they thought they saw something in Minny's defense they could exploit. Or maybe he had some reason to doubt Zuerlein (although the guy did later hit a 61 yarder).
But yes, straight by the numbers it was probably a sub-optimal decision. Still not nearly as dumb as Quinn's.
addicted2ff
Footballguy
Lol I was watching the game and thought the same thing. Falcons are doomed for 2-3 years of mediocrity with "play it safe" Quinn at the helm.zftcg said:
JaxBill
Footballguy
As far as #2, the Jags had held Chris Ivory to like 28 yards rushing on 23 carries or something ridiculous like that.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
We have a winner here. I starting rooting for the Falcons to never get the ball back again once he made that boneheaded decision.
Thinking about this some more, I don't know the numbers, but agree that intuitively, the onside kick sounds like a better bet.
Leave aside the time for a second and assume the D can get a three-and-out: If you kickoff, Jets get the ball around the 30. Let's say they run three plays, get five yards, you stop the clock twice (one TO, one TMW) and then they punt 40 yards to your 25.
Conversely, if you onside kick and they recover, same sequence of plays, they still probably punt, and there's a good chance of a touchback. So for five yards of field position, I'll take the chance at recovering an onside kick and drastically increasing your WP. Also, even if they kick a long FG, the game's not over, because you can still tie with a TD+2.
Overall, their chances weren't good no matter what they did, but I think they probably made the optimal decision. (They also very nearly got lucky when Ivory fumbled on 3rd down, but the Jets recovered).
Either way, it's a close call, so it clearly doesn't belong in this thread.
JaxBill
Footballguy
So you're assuming a kickoff doesn't get a touchback but a punt from midfield does?
The previous kickoff for the Jags resulted in a touchback. And as it turned out the Jets pinned the Jags inside the 8. I think you're understating the difference in field position. To me it should be the difference between starting at your own 35 and own 10.
It might not be an obvious error, but I wanted to see what the numbers said. If it was on the other side of the 2 minute warning, I think the onside would be the play.
The previous kickoff for the Jags resulted in a touchback. And as it turned out the Jets pinned the Jags inside the 8. I think you're understating the difference in field position. To me it should be the difference between starting at your own 35 and own 10.
It might not be an obvious error, but I wanted to see what the numbers said. If it was on the other side of the 2 minute warning, I think the onside would be the play.
Well, this was all back-of-envelope stuff. I was assuming typical starting field position after a kickoff. Maybe it's the 25. Maybe the Jags K has a higher TB%.
The broader point is, if you assume a 3-and-out in both scenarios (because if not, the game's over) and if you assume a 3-and-out has the same probability in either situation (seems reasonable), then it comes down to whether value of field position > probability of recovery + TD. My gut says it's not, but I wouldn't be shocked either way.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Quinn's FG call was definitely the worst coaching decision so far this year. He essentially forfeited the game at that point by trying to play it safe.
Warrior
Footballguy
JaxBill
Footballguy
So using the win probability calculator LBL provided...
If the Jags go for onside and assuming the chances of converting an EXPECTED onside kick are about 1 in 10
So on the 1 in 10 times the Jags were to convert they would have the ball, down 5, at Jets 45 with 2:15 to go.
The win probability is .37.
The other 90 percent Jets recover near midfield and go run-run-run and punt from say Jags 45 and should eb able to pin inside the 20.
Let’s say 1st and 10 at own 10 with 1:05 to go. Win probability there is only .02. (Actually negative expected points :
[SIZE=12pt]-0.21)[/SIZE]
So it should be (.1 * .37) + (.9 *.02) = .055. So roughly a 1 in 20 chance of winning.
If they kick it deep and get a touchback or even if Jets get it at own 25. Run Run Run punt from say Jets 30 and then 40 yards net is Jags ball at own 30 with same 1:05 to go.
Winning pct there is .17 or roughly 1 in 6 chances of winning.
heckmanm
Footballguy
Doesn't appear that "kicking off" is an available field position option.
ETA - I'm an idiot. N/M
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lod01
Footballguy
I actually had no problem with that call. There was no reason the 49ers with Gabbert should have got a 1st down. Everyone knew they would try and run the ball. They made their mistake by not thinking Gabbert would run for it on 3rd down. They didn't contain him. All they needed was a FG to win.
Dizzy
Footballguy
I thought it was the wrong call, and a mistake on the (1st time head) coach's part. My guess is that he would do it differently after giving it some thought last night... all night... through this morning.
Even if 4th & G failed, I don't think he weighed in the "pucker effect" of Gabbert snapping the ball from his own 1-yd line knowing that he had to pick up a 1st down to give his punter some space.
If you don't think Gabbert can get a first down, why not take the high-percentage play and go for it, then force him to not just get a first down, but engineer a scoring drive?
The numbers are pretty clear. Atlanta's win probability went down after they successfully kicked the FG. That's because 4th and goal from the 1 is a great opportunity, and if you piss it away without scoring a TD you're less likely to win.
lod01
Footballguy
There is that. I was basing it on the fact that this offense blows an can no longer seem to get the ball in the endzone. They can however march up and down the field and kick FGs. It just wasn't that bad of a call for a stagnant offense with zero creativity. It's drop back, stare at receiver, throw football.
Hopefully for Quinn's sake, it was him having no confidence in Shanahan's playcalling. That hack needs to go.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
On 1st down and goal the Dolphins get tackled on the 3 yard line with about 24 seconds left in the half, and elect not to use their final timeout. Instead they line up and run a play, which ends with only 2 seconds left in the half. They ended up going for the score on 3rd down and not getting it (end of half). Would have gotten at least one more play had they used the timeout after the first down play. Instead it became immediately useless as the next play ended with only 2 seconds left.
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Agree. Going for it instead of kicking the FG was defensible. But the clock management beforehand was not. If you want the TO, then you have to throw. Conversely, if you want to run you have to use the TO.
Reminded me of that Michigan-Minnesota game last weekend, except that Minnesota did the same thing at the end of the game and cost themselves a victory. I almost came to this thread afterward and posted a special "college edition" post.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Gabbert at the 1 and down 4 is better than kicking off down 1 in that situation. Nuff said.
Oh yeah, and they probably score the TD. So theres that
Oh yeah, and they probably score the TD. So theres that
Short Corner
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
What drives me nuts is when coaches put their teams in a package/alignment that can't possible succeed.
Very late 3rd Q yesterday Indy had a 3rd & 7 from the DEN 48. They stacked Whalen (who had been involved in the game plan all day) behind Allen. I don't even watch the Colts that much & I knew what was coming. The TE broke inside and the DB went with him. That gave Whalen a free release with a backup LB (McCray, #55) covering him. I don't care if you're a scrub WR who plays mostly special teams, there is no way a LB is hanging in that coverage. Bradshaw picked up the corner blitz - he usually does, he's one of the best pass pro backs in the league - and Luck had the easiest 38 yarder he'll ever complete. Roby came over late to prevent the TD (Bradswhaw scored a few plays later.) That made it 24-17, huge play.
I'm a casual fan watching from a couch. I had a hunch as soon as they lined up & 2 steps into the play I saw the Colts had a massive mismatch. Somebody on that Denver sideline is a helluva lot smarter than I am about NFL defenses. You gotta burn a timeout there & change the personnel or call off the blitz. That's not execution, that's just coaches putting players in a spot they can't succeed from.
Very late 3rd Q yesterday Indy had a 3rd & 7 from the DEN 48. They stacked Whalen (who had been involved in the game plan all day) behind Allen. I don't even watch the Colts that much & I knew what was coming. The TE broke inside and the DB went with him. That gave Whalen a free release with a backup LB (McCray, #55) covering him. I don't care if you're a scrub WR who plays mostly special teams, there is no way a LB is hanging in that coverage. Bradshaw picked up the corner blitz - he usually does, he's one of the best pass pro backs in the league - and Luck had the easiest 38 yarder he'll ever complete. Roby came over late to prevent the TD (Bradswhaw scored a few plays later.) That made it 24-17, huge play.
I'm a casual fan watching from a couch. I had a hunch as soon as they lined up & 2 steps into the play I saw the Colts had a massive mismatch. Somebody on that Denver sideline is a helluva lot smarter than I am about NFL defenses. You gotta burn a timeout there & change the personnel or call off the blitz. That's not execution, that's just coaches putting players in a spot they can't succeed from.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Quite a few assumptions/errors in here.
Firstly, the assumption that the Jets would be able to pin them inside the 20 with the punt. Additionally, the assumption that the Jets would not pick up a first down with their possession. And lastly, 20% of onside kicks have been recovered successfully since the year 2000, not 10%.
I think generally, kicking an onside kick at the end of the game is almost always going to be the better play. Onside kicks are a net negative throughout normal game circumstances because if you don't recover it, you're setting the other team up one first down away from scoring position. At the end of the game when one first down ends the game anyway, the other team being in scoring position is irrelevant and that immediately erases the biggest downside to onside kicks.
I can't imagine that 10-20 yards of field position is going to outweigh a 20% chance of getting the ball outright, and I certainly can't imagine that those 10-20 yards more than triple your chances of winning.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If we are here doing math equations to figure out some small percentage difference, is it REALLY an obvious bad move at that time?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
3/33 this year. Historically I think it's always been around 10%. Knock yourself out:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/onside-kickoff-success/2015/
To be fair, JaxBill originally brought it up not as a criticism of the coaching, but to ask if there was a way to calculate the WP% for each decision. It was tangential to the main point of the thread, though I would argue understanding win probabilities is crucial to understanding how so many of these coach's decisions are sub-optimal.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
And to be fair to coaches, they may do things at times that they know are not the proper "percentage play", and have other reasons for doing them.
If it is an obvious idiocy then yeah, but a few percentage points here and there I can't see being an obvious stupid call ya know.
Posted Today, 12:40 AM
It's standard upper management / CEO mentality .... keeping the gravy train flowing is more important than actually making a stand, or [GASP] winning. If you want to keep a ridiculous salary coming in, don't do anything out of the ordinary.
Job security is more important for these sheep. If they truly had the passion they preach (sell) to the flesh that keeps them in these positions, you would see a different, more interesting league/product.
It's too bad there isn't at least one renegade who is willing to bypass the status quo and give it a go.... Instead, go through the motions so you can keep picking up those checks, in lieu of the game you supposedly love.
It's standard upper management / CEO mentality .... keeping the gravy train flowing is more important than actually making a stand, or [GASP] winning. If you want to keep a ridiculous salary coming in, don't do anything out of the ordinary.
Job security is more important for these sheep. If they truly had the passion they preach (sell) to the flesh that keeps them in these positions, you would see a different, more interesting league/product.
It's too bad there isn't at least one renegade who is willing to bypass the status quo and give it a go.... Instead, go through the motions so you can keep picking up those checks, in lieu of the game you supposedly love.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So they are stupid for being smart and keeping their jobs?kOOk said:
I agree with you that things would likely be better overall if people didn't think the way they do, but cmon, who in the NFL cares more about the team than their own job? Can't be very many, and I am not surprised by that at all.
Where did I say they were stupid?
What I am saying is that it's no different than any other corporate structure, in that coaches end up doing what's best for them. Much moreso than the teams and players who are the ones actually laying it on the line. It's not a good culture and it's hypocritical to say the least.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Agreed. I think another part of it may be pressure from above as well, as almost all the owners are these old school traditionalists. There has to be some explanation beyond just "play it safe to keep your job" when we see these college coaches that were going for it regularly on 4th down and doing fake punts from their own 10 yard line in college, and all the sudden are punting on 4th and inches from midfield in the NFL.
I tend to attribute a lot of the increased conservatism to decreased confidence in talent differential. When a top-25 program goes up against the "little sisters of the poor" they can afford to risk not converting a 4th down, or missing a two point try...and they are more likely to make them anyway.
Against NFL teams, they don't have as much certainty of success or recovery from failure.
Against NFL teams, they don't have as much certainty of success or recovery from failure.
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