Anarchy99
Footballguy
He averaged 7.2 ypc in college. That’s pretty close to what Michel averaged per game in 2019.
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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter captain_amazing
- Start date
Boston
Footballguy
Could be but Bolden is there for special teams so someone has to beat him out in that area.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
looks like a safety with Chung upside and a swing tackle. both need to develop.Blackbear said:
Yes this is true. His profile said he has special teams high upside. Also, this tweet says he played special teams at Oklahoma.Boston said:
https://twitter.com/rochiewbz/status/1388552143674748931?s=21
At the same time Bolden is set to be a free agent, as is White. And the Patriots have to decide immediately if the exercise Michels fifth year option. So it could be they let all three move on next year.
After watching highlights of him it seems his feet are quick for a large man. Able to be nifty and nimble even at times. The profile says he has good pass protection skills. So seems like a good pick.
Hopefully Pats get in on the udfa bidding for Terry. https://www.tomahawknation.com/florida-state-football-fsu-seminoles/2021/5/1/22414924/free-agent-tracker-undrafted-marvin-wilson-round-selection-pick-contract-team-nfl-tamorrion-sign
Anarchy99
Footballguy
They updated the article. Originally, when I posted, it was questioning where they would go.
For people that like to watch YouTube highlights and breakdowns here is one for Rhamondre Stevenson. The play at 6:37 is worth watching as it shows how nifty this guys feet are for 230+ pounds. https://youtu.be/XIEeCJlgdqo
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yes. Wynn also. From what I have seen, they supposedly are far more inclined to pick of Wynn's option than Michel's. The logic being Wynn has played pretty well when on the field and competent tackles are harder to come by. Michel, on the other hand, won't be in high demand from other teams and won't be worth what they would have to pay him. If they decided they wanted him back, they could simply re-sign him for less than the 5th year option cost.
Plus, Wynn might be low mileage this year behind Brown at tackle. So could him as a 1b at left tackle and fill in for the inevitable injuries where Onwenu goes to guard if someone is injured on the interior. Michel seems to be injury prone, and I doubt he makes it an entire feature back and as such he wouldn’t be worth the 5.5 million option. Both guys had a ton of promise when drafted and both have had a lot of lost games due to injuries.
I looked at our top 51 and tried to project the final 53. It appears as though after cuts that are straight forward with no bold moves... the amount recovered by cutting some guys and replacing with cheaper options is offset by paying the top rookies this season that would get over the top 51 threshold. So I expect not much change in the salary cap from where we are now due to roster cuts and rookie signings. However, it was said either here or on sport radio we can expect a bump in pay for Gilmore to the tune of 5 million. So if that happens and not other big cuts or signings occur I think Pats would be left at 10 or 11 million in cap space.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Just curious why you think Wynn would play less? I would expect the starting tackles to be Brown and Wynn and Onwenu and Mason at guard.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE still has an $8M cap hit to navigate for when Chung officially retires (submitted on paper). They will likely wait until 6/1 and then they will have a $4.3M cap hit for this year and a $3.6M cap hit for next year. So as they stand now, they are at around $11M in cap space.
Plus I don't think they are anywhere close to done with tinkering with the roster. They will make a trade or two or bring in guys cut from other rosters between now and September. Depending upon who is involved, they might have dead money if they move one of their own players. As you said, if they bring someone else in, the increase to the cap is only whatever amount is above Player 51 in terms of salary (so roughly any salary over around $850K).
They could make more cap space by cutting or restructuring contracts, but at this point it doesn't look like they have a pressing need to do so.
Well I would have Brown at left tackle. In 2018 he played great there. Some of that allure was how he got out in space and road graded too. For our team that is a heavy plus. However when he went to Raiders he got gimpy, and I had heard he is a bit less mobile now and perhaps carrying too much weight. Combine that with Wynn being injury prone I think in my brain on average we might get on starting tackle our of both of them. Hopefully, and it would be great, if both play to potential and don’t get injured. With Onwenu, I saw a consistent improvement at right tackle throughout the season. So this is why I am thinking Onwenu will play a lot of right tackle as Brown and Wynn might be gimpy at times.
I had already factored in 7.5 million in dead cap money for the guys not on the foster which includes Chung and Edelman retiring.
I should tell you I have them cutting 9 players current in the top 51. I just think certain guys that are getting paid more than others contribute nothing meaningful relatively.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Patscap and Spotrac both have NE currently at $15.5M, but IIRC Chung's retirement is not included in that. The best thing they could do at this point is extend Gilmore, which would give him more money and reduce his 2021 cap number. Whether that is advisable or not is a different question.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
*Matt Lacosse
*Akeem Spence
*Tashawn Bower
*Leroy Reynolds
*Cody Davis
*Brandon King
*Raekwon McMillan
*Dan Vitale
*Brandon Bolden
*Anfernee Jennings
Anarchy99
Footballguy
*Matt Lacosse - I doubt they keep 5 TE and LaCosse would be the most likely candidate to get cut (or traded if they can con someone into giving up anything for him).
*Akeem Spence - Spence was dirt cheap last year but his salary triples this year. No value add to the roster. I agree his days are numbered.
*Tashawn Bower - Similar situation as Spence.
*LaRoy Reynolds - Reynolds seems redundant at LB . . . but they just signed him this off season. Maybe he is a special teams specialist?
*Cody Davis - Davis isn't getting cut. They just signed him and guaranteed him $2.1M.
*Brandon King - He's been there for 6 years . . . sure they could cut him, but htey could have done that any number of times and haven't.
*Raekwon McMillan - Another new signee. Unlike Davis, he was only guaranteed $250K, so he is on the fence for making the roster.
*Dan Vitale - Vitale, Dalton Keene, and Jakob Johnson could be fighting for one roster spot. Vitale is the most expensive and would cost a few hundred thousand against the cap when the other guys wouldn't cost anything. So his spot is definitely in jeopardy.
*Brandon Bolden - BB loves him and he's been around for ever. He even left and came back. I would be a little bit surprised if they released him. They sort of already paid him for this year with what they paid him when he signed his latest contract. They will move on from guys when they feel like they made a mistake. I am just not sure they view Bolden as a bad investment.
*Anfernee Jennings - Bill will almost always give drafted players 2 years with the team before he moves on. I don't see them releasing Jennings. They might trade him or Winovich, but I don't they flat out cut them.
Another player I would consider in the moving on from list is Joejuan Williams. Hereally hasn't played much. They signed G Marcus Martin this off season and guaranteed close to nothing of his contract. Not many other guys on the roster jump out as mostly roster filler players who could be cut.
Martin is not in top 51. So that is irrelevant.
Jowaun Williams I had them keeping. But I could be convinced he can be cut. Though his contract doesn’t seem in line with a cut given his potential.
You highlighted my biggest weakness or decision which was Cody Davis. I might be convinced easily to change my thoughts.
I tried to combine pure talent and money involved.
Not likely I get everything right, but at least I took a stab. You should post your inside top 51 cuts for clarity.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Martin is on the books for $1,056,470 and counts as one of the Top 51. His contract is the same as Bower's, so if one made it into the Top 51 then they both did.Martin is not in top 51. So that is irrelevant.
Jowaun Williams I had them keeping. But I could be convinced he can be cut. Though his contract doesn’t seem in line with a cut given his potential.
You highlighted my biggest weakness or decision which was Cody Davis. I might be convinced easily to change my thoughts.
I tried to combine pure talent and money involved.
Not likely I get everything right, but at least I took a stab. You should post your inside top 51 cuts for clarity.
At that point in the roster hierarchy, they are looking at $150,000 or so in cap savings (less whatever they would take on in dead cap money from bonuses). IMO, they care more about the fit and depth of the players, not so much if they would save $100,000 or so against the cap.
They will bring in and let go a number of players between now and 4 months until w get to September. There are any number of guys in the $1.2M or less category that could turnover and really not impact their cap situation very much.
Maybe then the numbers here are wrong for Martin? https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-england-patriots/
So this may explain the reason we are off by a few million. You still didn’t give me your top inside top 51 cuts.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I would say the leading candidates are Lacosse, Spence, Bower, Vitale, Martin, Williams. But a lot will depend who they sniff around on as far as cuts go from other teams (or even their own players).
They could easily bring back Burkhead or McCourty. They could find another player they like more than someone on their roster and swap those two. Or they could find someone they love and someone else will get cut just because they have to free up a roster spot. They are not at that point yet as they still have open spots on their 90 man roster.
TBH, I don't find any of these guys all that interesting. They are deep depth or special teams guys that are hardly household names and really won't impact the outcome of the season very much.
The guys in the Top 51 at the top tier are more interesting. Maybe they will go to Hightower and play hardball and say he needs to take a pay cut. Or what they do to appease Gilmore. They already got answers to two guys I was curious about (Chung and Edelman), as both were potential cuts in the first place before they retired. But they signed so many guys this off season that there isn't much to talk about with those guys in terms of cap management.
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I will call it like I see it. From me else where in NY Jets thread...
”We have transplant Zolak that is evidently coked up everyday because he never did #### as a QB. His cohost is a tub of butter.
Felger is a GreenBay guy that searches each day to be controversial. Mazz is a puppet for him.
Two shows prime time to do nothing but aggravate people. Call into their show and you never get to ask a legit question.
Can’t wait for tomorrow when they #### on Patriots picks again.
This is the worst sense of click bait, this 98.5. Their existince is to serve piss off New England fans. I bet not one of those yards played. ”
”We have transplant Zolak that is evidently coked up everyday because he never did #### as a QB. His cohost is a tub of butter.
Felger is a GreenBay guy that searches each day to be controversial. Mazz is a puppet for him.
Two shows prime time to do nothing but aggravate people. Call into their show and you never get to ask a legit question.
Can’t wait for tomorrow when they #### on Patriots picks again.
This is the worst sense of click bait, this 98.5. Their existince is to serve piss off New England fans. I bet not one of those yards played. ”
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I posted in another thread that NE's UDFA's have done better than their 2nd round draft picks. Then I went and looked it up. Based on total CareerAV (which may have come more on another franchise) . . .
Second round draft picks: (Year, Pick #, Player, Position, CareerAV)
2001 48 Matt Light T 100
2010 42 Rob Gronkowski TE 73
2013 52 Jamie Collins LB 60
2009 58 S Vollmer T 57
2002 65 Deion Branch WR 52
2009 34 Patrick Chung DB 39
2003 36 Eugene Wilson DB 30
2014 62 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 27
2011 56 Shane Vereen RB 24
2009 41 Darius Butler DB 23
2010 62 Brandon Spikes LB 22
2012 48 Tavon Wilson DB 21
2000 46 Adrian Klemm G 10
2015 64 Jordan Richards S 8
2010 53 J Cunningham LB 8
2003 45 Bethel Johnson WR 8
2013 59 Aaron Dobson WR 6
2009 40 Ron Brace DT 6
2020 37 Kyle Dugger S 3
2018 56 Duke Dawson CB 3
2016 60 Cyrus Jones CB 3
2019 45 J Williams CB 2
2006 36 Chad Jackson WR 2
2020 60 Josh Uche LB 1
2011 33 Ras-I Dowling DB 1
2008 62 T Wheatley DB 1
2004 63 Marquise Hill DE 0
UDFA signings: (Year, Player, Position, CareerAV)
2014 Malcolm Butler CB 60
2005 Robbie Gould PK 51
2002 Steve Neal G 50
2015 David Andrews CB 41
2013 Josh Kline G 39
2008 BGreen-Ellis RB 33
2009 Ryan Wendell CB 31
2001 Tom Ashworth TE 24
2009 Brian Hoyer QB 24
2008 Gary Guyton LB 21
2010 Kyle Love DT 20
2017 Kenny Moore CB 19
2005 Mike Wright DT 19
2004 Randall Gay CB 17
2018 J.C. Jackson CB 17
2013 Ryan Allen P 15
2017 Adam Butler DT 14
2011 Sterling Moore CB 13
2012 Brandon Bolden RB 12
2016 Jonathan Jones CB 12
2000 Lonnie Paxton LS 10
2006 Corey Mays LB 10
2019 Jakobi Meyers WR 10
2006 Pierre Woods LB 8
2010 Dane Fletcher LB 8
2013 K Thompkins WR 7
2017 Jacob Hollister TE 6
2017 Harvey Langi LB 6
2010 Sergio Brown S 5
2013 Joe Vellano DT 5
2018 Corey Bojorquez P 5
Basically, in the past 10 seasons, they drafted one player that had a CareerAV of 25+ that did anything for NE (Collins . . . Jimmy G earned his numbers in SF). They have signed 3 UDFAs in that time that have hit that number (with J.C. Jackson in range to hit that number this year). There may be other guys in the league that first signed with NE as an UDFA . . . but good luck trying to figure out who they are. (Note that I only included players that went undrafted and were signed originally by NE as an UDFA . . . they had other guys that ended up in NE but were first signed by other teams.)
Second round draft picks: (Year, Pick #, Player, Position, CareerAV)
2001 48 Matt Light T 100
2010 42 Rob Gronkowski TE 73
2013 52 Jamie Collins LB 60
2009 58 S Vollmer T 57
2002 65 Deion Branch WR 52
2009 34 Patrick Chung DB 39
2003 36 Eugene Wilson DB 30
2014 62 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 27
2011 56 Shane Vereen RB 24
2009 41 Darius Butler DB 23
2010 62 Brandon Spikes LB 22
2012 48 Tavon Wilson DB 21
2000 46 Adrian Klemm G 10
2015 64 Jordan Richards S 8
2010 53 J Cunningham LB 8
2003 45 Bethel Johnson WR 8
2013 59 Aaron Dobson WR 6
2009 40 Ron Brace DT 6
2020 37 Kyle Dugger S 3
2018 56 Duke Dawson CB 3
2016 60 Cyrus Jones CB 3
2019 45 J Williams CB 2
2006 36 Chad Jackson WR 2
2020 60 Josh Uche LB 1
2011 33 Ras-I Dowling DB 1
2008 62 T Wheatley DB 1
2004 63 Marquise Hill DE 0
UDFA signings: (Year, Player, Position, CareerAV)
2014 Malcolm Butler CB 60
2005 Robbie Gould PK 51
2002 Steve Neal G 50
2015 David Andrews CB 41
2013 Josh Kline G 39
2008 BGreen-Ellis RB 33
2009 Ryan Wendell CB 31
2001 Tom Ashworth TE 24
2009 Brian Hoyer QB 24
2008 Gary Guyton LB 21
2010 Kyle Love DT 20
2017 Kenny Moore CB 19
2005 Mike Wright DT 19
2004 Randall Gay CB 17
2018 J.C. Jackson CB 17
2013 Ryan Allen P 15
2017 Adam Butler DT 14
2011 Sterling Moore CB 13
2012 Brandon Bolden RB 12
2016 Jonathan Jones CB 12
2000 Lonnie Paxton LS 10
2006 Corey Mays LB 10
2019 Jakobi Meyers WR 10
2006 Pierre Woods LB 8
2010 Dane Fletcher LB 8
2013 K Thompkins WR 7
2017 Jacob Hollister TE 6
2017 Harvey Langi LB 6
2010 Sergio Brown S 5
2013 Joe Vellano DT 5
2018 Corey Bojorquez P 5
Basically, in the past 10 seasons, they drafted one player that had a CareerAV of 25+ that did anything for NE (Collins . . . Jimmy G earned his numbers in SF). They have signed 3 UDFAs in that time that have hit that number (with J.C. Jackson in range to hit that number this year). There may be other guys in the league that first signed with NE as an UDFA . . . but good luck trying to figure out who they are. (Note that I only included players that went undrafted and were signed originally by NE as an UDFA . . . they had other guys that ended up in NE but were first signed by other teams.)
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Wynn’s fifth year option picked up, and they think Michel’s won’t be... https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/05/03/patriots-pick-up-isaiah-wynns-fifth-year-option-likely-to-decline-sony-michels/
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yes . . . Wynn 5th year option picked up for $10.4M while Michel's was declined for what would have been $4.5M. Like most NE running backs, that doesn't mean he won't be back . . . it just means they don't want to pay him $4.5M. They could opt to resign him for a lot less. I also am not 100% convinced Burkhead is done with the Pats. If he shows that he is healthy and would play for cheap, they might being him back. Basically, if he were willing to play for what they are paying Bolden, I think they would resign Burkhead and potentially let Bolden go. But that's just me spit balling.
Evidently Barmore fell because there are concerns over his character... https://nesn.com/2021/05/patriots-christian-barmore-why-fell-in-nfl-draft/
Boston
Footballguy
If he plays like he did last year he will be on the bench by week 8...Bobby Kraft did not pay all that money to lose games because of incompetent QB play...if Cam plays well than things are even better as you don’t have to rush Jones.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I agree re: commitment to Cam. Everything Bill does is a siege mentality from the bunker. Cam was nothing but the good soldier last year despite no camp / low pay / getting covid / no weapons / getting blasted in the court of public opinion, and I'm sure nothing would tickle BB more than to see Cam go ham and break the top 5.
That perspective will last about 3 games if Cam continues to skip rocks when these new receivers pop open.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
For those wondering why NE has not signed any UDFA, there is speculation that BB is trying to get the roster to 80 players to conform to COVID protocols for practice purposes. I believe teams are allowed to carry 90 players but the league has some limits on what they can do. They may look to add some UDFAs later, but for now they aren’t really looking too hard.
Dynasty
Footballguy
I think some of you are trying too hard to analyze Bill Belichick's state of mind. And by doing so, you're making this much too complex.
Belichick will play the quarterback which he thinks will give the Patriots the best chance to win. Right now, he thinks that's Cam Newton. But, he'll give Mac Jones every chance to earn the job.
When Week 1 comes, if Belichick thinks Mac Jones is the better quarterback, then Jones will be the starter. Belichick will make the unemotional and practical choice.
Belichick was willing to permanently replace Drew Bledsoe in 2001 in Week 11 with six games remaining in the season. Tom Brady was only 5-3 in his first eight starts.
And remember, Bledosoe signed a ten-year, $103 million contract in March of 2001. He was supposed to be the Patriots' quarterback for the rest of his career. Moving from Bledsoe to Brady permanently was not an obvious choice.
Belichick will play the quarterback which he thinks will give the Patriots the best chance to win. Right now, he thinks that's Cam Newton. But, he'll give Mac Jones every chance to earn the job.
When Week 1 comes, if Belichick thinks Mac Jones is the better quarterback, then Jones will be the starter. Belichick will make the unemotional and practical choice.
Belichick was willing to permanently replace Drew Bledsoe in 2001 in Week 11 with six games remaining in the season. Tom Brady was only 5-3 in his first eight starts.
And remember, Bledosoe signed a ten-year, $103 million contract in March of 2001. He was supposed to be the Patriots' quarterback for the rest of his career. Moving from Bledsoe to Brady permanently was not an obvious choice.
One strange thing is that the offensive installed may favor one QB and not the other. It seems they had to change the playbook to suit Newton. Maybe a lot of the designed runs and RPO are not what you’d call if Jones is in there. Should be interesting to hear from pfw guys if they are allowed to watch practices.
This podcast is much easier to listen to as compared to the 98.5 guys if you want a reasonable take on the draft picks. https://youtu.be/0FH6K9z7IL4
I remember vividly arguing with friends in a bar over Brady vs. Bledsoe to the point where one of my "Bledsoe" friends stormed out of the bar.
The likes of Felger and Mazz keep saying that "Bill is in bed with Cam" next year, but history shows that Bill is going to put the guy on the field who gives him the best chance to win.
Bossman
Footballguy
For this reason you would have to think Josh Mcdaniels will have a lot to say about who starts at QB.
Mcdaniels had a taste of the RPO offense last year and it tasted pretty sour.
Looking forward to a solid preseason for Mac Jones and fingers crossed, ... a week one starting job.
Boston
Footballguy
I waver between whether it is comedy or idiocy the fact that some people believe that a year after TB12 won a Super Bowl that BB will continue playing Cam if he plays like last year and they hover around .500 with an inept offense and a first round rookie on the bench who by all accounts projects to be NFL ready pretty quickly.