Running Back update (previous post on RBs
here)
ZWK, that is sweet. Are you going to color code your RB's as well?
I've added color coding to the 2014 season / 2015 draft class in my
RB stats spreadsheet &
RB elusiveness spreadsheet. Green = good, red = bad, whiter = averager, and other than that the precise colors don't mean anything (the scale is actually set automatically by Google sheets, relative to other players that year on that statistic).
I haven't updated any of the numbers in the spreadsheets, despite some new information (like pro days from Tevin Coleman & David Cobb), because I'm currently using a borrowed laptop while mine is in the shop so I can't easily re-run my formulas.
College Football Focus has put out their
top 4 RB prospect ranking, along with a couple articles on their RB stats including
their elusiveness rating and RB
receiving & pass blocking. They have Gordon & Gurley 1-2, and then Abdullah & Ajayi a tier down at 3-4. I have the same top 4, and the same tiering, but I put Gurley ahead of Gordon and Ajayi ahead of Abdullah (based on my impressions of them - I believe the raw calculations by my formulas would agree exactly with CFF on the order). Gurley does extremely well by their stats - they have him first in elusiveness, by a lot - and I'm inclined to put him a mini-tier ahead of Gordon, neck-and-neck with Cooper for the overall #1 rookie spot. CFF has Gurley behind Gordon in their ranking primarily because of his ACL risk, but I think I'm more worried about the fact that Gordon doesn't have any elite physical attributes according to his combine numbers (size, speed, jumps, etc.). Gurley's positive buzz also seems to be on a different level from Gordon's.
CFF's
pass blocking numbers match Abdullah's reputation as a poor pass blocker. That, plus his fumbling and lack of size (205 at the combine, 198 at the senior bowl), raise enough questions about his ability to carve out a big role for him to rank behind Ajayi in my eyes.
Tevin Coleman's pro day 40 is being reported as a 4.40 by
nfldraftscout, which I think is enough to move him up to RB5 for me, just ahead of Duke Johnson. Coleman also does well in
CFF's elusiveness stats, but I think that's less impressive than it looks at first glance because 1) his yards after contact per carry was padded by some long runs with early contact, which don't actually demonstrate that much elusiveness and 2) CFF says that a big chunk of his broken tackles came against weak competition. Duke Johnson actually ranks ahead of him in CFF's elusiveness rating against Power 5 opponents.
David Cobb's pro day 40 is being reported as a 4.73 by
nfldraftscout, which is slow enough to be very concerning (especially because I had similar concerns watching him play). Some other sources are reporting it as being around 4.6, but it's hard to know what to make of those reports. There are also a couple of small pieces of bad news about Cobb from CFF, with him not making their top 10 in
elusiveness rating and also ranking in their bottom 10 at
pass blocking. I'm inclined to drop him down a tier below Coleman, Duke, and David Johnson, to RB8.
I haven't been that impressed by what I've seen of David Johnson's running, so he's pretty clearly behind Coleman & Duke Johnson, but he still slots in at #7 thanks to his size & speed & receiving.
Cameron Artis-Payne & TJ Yeldon don't look that good by my numbers, but they both made CFF's top 5 in
elusiveness rating against Power 5 conferences. I currently see them as a cut above the rest of the field, rounding out my top 10 RBs.
Javorius Allen is one guy who I've been down on for a long time, and CFF just gave me one more reason to be down on him: apparently he's a
bad pass blocker.